Arctic Blue Ocean Event very possible within 3 to 6 years

[@PaulHBeckwith]

Crucial implicit assumption: The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean currents don’t collapse. If AMOC shuts off, Arctic goes into deep freeze and Blue Ocean Event is temporarily averted for quite a while!!! Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: New research warns of accelerated timelines Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. “The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s sea ice, an ominous milestone for the planet, could occur as early as 2027.” www.colorado.edu/today/2024/12/03/countdown-ice-free-arctic-new-research-warns-accelerated-timelines New peer-reviewed research paper: “The rst ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030” Abstract Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice- free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3-6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming. www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3.pdf Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. Crucial implicit assumption: The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean currents don’t collapse. If AMOC shuts off, Arctic goes into deep freeze and Blue Ocean Event is temporarily averted for quite a while!!!

[@WheelchairUser13]

So An AMOC Shutdown Future Is More Likely To Happen Than an Ice Free One, Or Have I Got The Wrong Idea? VERY New To All Of This………

[@terencefield3204]

All it’s not going to happen like that is it fairly obviously the AMOC shutdown is a much longer timeframe, even though very short by paleo geological standards. For those of us that have families and grandchildren then the future looks horrifying.. I had not realized that Shackleton had passed until I read it on another note.. I’m very sorry he looked a lovely old cat.

[@DrSmooth2000]

Yet BOE is a precondition for AMOC collapse. What else can supply a freshwater pulse? [Unless credibly plan on a Greenland ice sheet nonlinearity]

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

GEE has been saying 2030 as of late - glad he got corroboration. Jim Massa doesn't agree with the "blue ocean event" term though.

[@A.BC-]

NO WAY, didn't GuyMcPherson already told us this for so many years!! 🤔...

[@michaelschiessl8357]

Many thanks Paul ...Many thanks Newton!!

[@basilbrushbooshieboosh5302]

You're a stalwart Paul. Good work.

[@kennethstealey1311]

Good Morning Paul, Thanks for all your hard work.

[@glike2]

The interaction between the AMOC and Blue Ocean event might have a very important role.

[@DrSmooth2000]

BOE is a precondition for AMOC collapse. What else can supply a freshwater pulse? [Unless credibly plan on a Greenland ice sheet nonlinearity]

[@Ominousheat]

​@@DrSmooth2000 The AMOC does not need a BOE to collapse.

[@DrSmooth2000]

@@Ominousheat freshwater pulse from what origin?

[@Ominousheat]

@@DrSmooth2000 It's already happening. And it's due to Greenland melt and permafrost melt around Canadian coasts. The increase in sea level rise along the U.S. East Coast is proof that the AMOC is already dramatically slowing. Not forgetting the fact that the massive gyres that topped the regions where the saline water would sink in the North Atlantic have reduced in number from a dozen to maybe one or two. That happened nearly a decade ago. What the hell is this freshwater pulse bs? You seem to believe that it would take a sudden influx of fresh water to cut off the system. That is not how it works. A single pulse would not make this happen. It's not like cutting a pipe.

[@smudgekids3203]

Thank you for reviewing and sharing.

[@texasrefugee7888]

Thank you very much Mr Beckwith😊

[@hooplawithbilliesue8143]

Just checked NSICD and we are currently below 2012-2013 levels.

[@ronkirk5099]

Back a few years ago, I kayaked the Mackenzie R. in Canada and continued on out to the Arctic ocean to Tuktoyatuk on the coast and met a couple in a sailboat who were waiting for the last of the sea ice to melt so they could complete a transit of the Northwest passage. They said that there were several more boats on the other side of the ice waiting to continue westward. Pretty soon boats won't have to wait for the last of the winter ice and it will be smooth sailing.

[@ollie2052000]

Excellent then it will be to hot & dry to grow food then we can start ti starve.

[@frictionhitch]

The good news is that we are mining more fossil fuels than ever before. Renewables have been growing and we have been replacing them with more fossil fuels. Progress is happening.

[@Ominousheat]

You need to work on your sarcasm.

[@earthsystem]

La. Seems Earth after all was just a mineral mine for extraterrestrial development 🥂 eventually Earth will rid itself of the wealthy

[@robertjsmith]

We might as well joke about it,it’s so tragic

[@frictionhitch]

@@Ominousheat Do I? Either scenario 1-You understood that it was sarcasm this proving my sarcasm was on point or 2- It went over your head which seems like a "you neuron" problem. Either way I'm good

[@Ominousheat]

@@frictionhitch Why are people like you so offended by criticism? And yes, clearly you do need to work on it. That's why I said it. So to your first question, Do I? Then yes. Clearly, your comedic skill does need working on. Unless you weren't being sarcastic, which you haven't actually confirmed. You just left that up in the air and got personal. So help me out here. You seem to think I need it. Are you being sarcastic?

[@devinebucklin7509]

You are the shyt Paul, love that you continue your work. I appreciate it greatly!

[@TTTzzzz]

That abominable word: acceleration.

[@coka237]

Everything is possible, Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted in 2012 that the Arctic would be ice-free in the summer by 2016, plus or minus 3 years.

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

that was based on a linear model. So what happened is that it snowed more and created increased extent of ice while the volume keep decreasing. So all the models rely on extent so everyone then blamed Wadhams for being wrong.

[@terencefield3204]

@@coka237 Wadhams is amazingly honest, honorable, and brave man for having been maltreated and removed as he was simply stating what the data at the time allowed him to understand yet nonlinear change as a different matter and far more terrifying

[@chuckinshanks]

Every model they've ever made has been wrong.

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

@@chuckinshanks especially the model for "biological annihilation" because you would not be able to verify if it became accurate or not. That's the problem with exponential nonlinear rates of change - the "amount" or rate is always wrong but the accelerating rate is always changing. Globally Resolved Surface Temperatures Since The Last Glacial Maximum" Matthew B. Osman, Jessica E. Tierney, Jiang Zhu, Robert Tardif, Gregory J. Hakim, Jonathan King & Christopher J. Poulsen published November 10, 2021 Nature volume 599, pages 239-244 (2021) ----------- Analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) the last 24,000 years by combining several hundred previous published paleo analysis from all over Earth, took 7 scientists 7 years to do the work of combining hundreds of previous published paleo analysis and filling in the areas of Earth between the analyses using advanced statistical methods, and calculating the uncertainty in those statistical methods for the infill. "Climate changes across the last 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations and proxy data have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation to produce the first observationally constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We demonstrate that temperature variability across the last 24 kyr was linked to two modes: radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases; and a superposition of changes in thermohaline circulation and seasonal insolation. In contrast with previous proxy-based reconstructions our reanalysis results show that global mean temperatures warmed between the early and middle Holocene and were stable thereafter. When compared with recent temperature changes, our reanalysis indicates that both the rate and magnitude of modern observed warming are unprecedented relative to the changes of the last 24 kyr". Time to grow up people - industrial CO2 induced abrupt global warming was first analyzed in detail in 1890 by Svante Arrhenius! Current CO2 levels are already well above anything in the past 3 million years! There's already over 400 Zettajoules of EXTRA heat in the oceans accumulated since 1995. The Arctic will soon be ice-free with 1200 gigatons of pressurized methane hydrates being released as an "abrupt eruption" - just a 5 gigaton release will double global warming temperatures on Earth.

[@sndspderbytes]

Its best to listen to a scientific communuty and don't waste your time getting information from a single scientist that holds an unlikley opinion. It is easy to find ridiculous predictionsy Most experts in 2012 thought it would be much slower than what we are seeing.

[@Sherkhan1962]

One worth reading article published (by the Geophysical Research Letters) in 2019, Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean, by Kristina Pistone, Ian Eisenman and Veerhabradan Naramathan, states that an ice-free Arctic ocean will have a similar effect as the sudden release of 1000 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere. In terms of global warming, it will be like a 25 years jump in the future. Here in Brittany, on the Atlantic shore, I'll be well placed to witness the resulting superstorms Jim Hansen told us about already many years ago.

[@robertforsythe3280]

Will the AMOC shutdown alter this predictive paper? So many modifiers of the current Climate based extinction event. We all have a good idea of what is to come but the details are yet to be seen. Thank you professor, Your work is known worldwide. I think AMOC shut down is right around the corner, 3-6 years could well be both these coming events.

[@rdallas81]

I don't think the Amoc will shut down- but will drastically change when the ice is gone. Weather patterns will change, The weather in UK, and Europe will be affected- Everything will change

[@DrSmooth2000]

Amoc collapse is a 50-100 year process so unless it died last century (before we got baseline readings of it) Then it's not an immediate problem.

[@GrandmaBev64]

Facebook and tictoc take down my ice and weather predictions, but I use Zoom Earth, Google Earth, and sites on their apps for my information. I always double check my stats and information before I post. They said I was creating "Climate Fear". Lol. Can't make anyone uncomfortable. Now can we?

[@SamWilkinsonn]

I’ve checked my zodiac signs and therefore have a better guess than you lot

[@aaronjennings8385]

The evolution of man occurred during the last 2.5 million years which have been ice age in large part

[@TheKolenbrander]

Thank you Paul for all your videos and clarity given to those that can handle it! One question i have. Will an early shut down of the AMOC (say 2030s) slow down or even stop BOEs in the future?

[@SamWilkinsonn]

20230 is a very long way away, I wouldn’t stress

[@TheDoomWizard]

Nightmare situation either way.

[@Al828282]

OMG Newton!

[@3j-gems]

Hi Newton, what a cutie! thank you paul for another report

[@adrianpike4649]

Shouldn't we be thinking the other way; a blue ocean event will accelerate the warming in the Arctic which will cause the AMOC to shut down earlier?

[@alandpost]

The interactions are too complex to predict with any certainty, but it will be very interesting to see.

[@UtopiaForMore]

Newton is a stunner 🤗

[@lukehoefler4317]

he is great but what kind of asshole buts a designer dog.

[@jeffjustjeff477]

The moment we start seeing blue ocean events, I might stop paying my bills

[@brentvanzanen6353]

Seems to me the real tipping point is a BOE during the arctic day (when the sun is still up) I think more attention needs to be paid to the acidity/toxicity associated with permafrost melt too, a lot of people are counting on increased productivity of northern lands to buffer consequences and that isn't going to work out like they expect.

[@Livingthewild]

Northern soils are not conducive to agriculture, if that's your question.

[@DrSmooth2000]

​@@Livingthewild not in current form of soils and or current row crop species ▪︎ but the reason there's so much carbon and organics in the permafrost is because it was a very productive biome in every epoch warmer than ours

[@Livingthewild]

@DrSmooth2000 Good points. An irrelevent topic considering the rate of environmental change is 10,000 ×'s faster than even invertebrates can keep up with. But wishful thinking is a nice way to pass the time.

[@antonyjh1234]

Personally i don't understand the statement "Seems to me the real tipping point is a BOE during the arctic day (when the sun is still up) " To me if there is a BOE during the day the tipping point has already been tipped.

[@brentvanzanen6353]

@@antonyjh1234 That's fair enough, we're already deep enough into this non-linear process calling a T point may be beside the point? What I was trying to say is when we have BOE conditions under insolation things are likely to get dramatic. I can imagine a Sept. BOE that doesn't seem to matter much, especially if it comes as a late mixing event that leaves a cold ocean like 2012. Another thought is it's the area on the solstice we really should be watching. I understand these are cherry-picked scenarios to get these early dates, which are possibilities rather than predictions, but we're seeing some of what they called for in real time.

[@goodenough22]

Awww such a good dog. They give so much to us ❤

[@lukehoefler4317]

you know buying pure breeds or really, paying for dogs is not dog love but mass tragedy. They are precious but we are so greedy and callous to ignore what we do

[@goodenough22]

@ what do we do? I love and spoil my dogs . Not sure what you mean here? Maybe the greed of breeders that over breed ? Well I can’t really stand people so any dog is excellent even wolves

[@christinearmington]

No ice? That would be an ultra marine blue ocean event. Anything under 1 million square miles of ice = a blue ocean event. (BOE).

[@earthsystem]

😅

[@thevindictive6145]

I can't keep a newton in my country as its in the tropics. But I do have an adorable toy version of newton. Seriously thinking of keeping my toy poodle, hair trimmed short, because its getting very hot.

[@FrankWhite437]

Its gonna be interesting to see if the arctic or antarctic will be ice free first 🤔

[@earthsystem]

Duh....drrr... 👆🏼Non-Science person above offers random words

[@rdallas81]

"Newton Endorphins" Genius. 😉 😜 😊

[@lukehoefler4317]

plug your nose to the stink of buying designer breeds or even pure breeds. Scew these selfish oblivious assholes.

[@voltrevolt8731]

That’s awesome that you can just walk to the conference, , much closer than COP ha. Hope it goes well.

[@happymusicschool-it1qc]

❤❤❤Newton❤❤❤

[@lukehoefler4317]

yay newton but fuck the people who pay for designer breeds

[@Designer_TopG]

So you're saying it's getting warmer up there. In the Arctic. ...

[@rdallas81]

Yes.

[@SamWilkinsonn]

It *is* getting disproportionately warmer up there. What were you getting at with your comment? Seems like when you emphasised it’s getting warmer ‘In the Arctic…’ that it’s common knowledge or to be expected that it’s warming much faster than the global average. I genuinely want a response btw. It’s bewildering how your comment’s the most upvoted too.

[@drunkspz]

​@@SamWilkinsonni gave a like just because you THINK anyone owes you an explanation get bent

[@libertysprings2244]

​I didn't write the comment, but to me it was just sarcastically commenting by making a video summary because the video is long. People who don't like the long videos sometimes leave mean comments on his videos, but this particular comment is more palatable with a little humour. Some of us obviously like the long videos so we would watch even if he said the same thing every day just rephrasing what he said before. @@SamWilkinsonn

[@SamWilkinsonn]

@@libertysprings2244 it’s the sarcasm that irked me. I have a strong feeling they don’t believe it, essentially saying ‘the arctics freezing, how can you say it’s getting warmer up there? That’s ridiculous.’ which is similar to that politician bringing a snowball in to a speech to deny warming’s happening.

[@marshalmaddening9011]

forever imminent it seems...not that it's doubtful.

[@leskuzyk2425]

Hi Newton. I say vis-a-vis Krakatoa II, humans will scramble to refreeze the Blue Ocean Event. In 2033/34.

[@richardthiele8363]

At least he didn’t name the dog Heisenberg. 😅

[@Sherkhan1962]

Breaking [News] Bad? 😅

[@carolinemorgan3684]

What type of dog is Newton? he's lovely!

[@lukehoefler4317]

He is a labradoodle. One of the most unethical breeds one can buy. great dogs with irregular characteristics because they are still being refined. This means many dogs are trash and disposed of. All pure breeds are the product of selfish callous people.

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

@@lukehoefler4317 A 2017 study found that dogs with a hyper-social temperament carry variants of the genes GTF2I and GTF2IRD1. These are the same genes that, when deleted in humans, cause Williams syndrome.

[@mujkocka]

Which is worse, Greenland ice free ? Orthoépies arctic ice free?

[@NJcruiser]

I've been hearing this for a long time. We'll see. I don't think we have ever gone below the 2012 low point yet. Seems it gets close to it and then backs off.

[@earthsystem]

Blah blah blah a bunch of dumbassery in the comments today

[@elixir2687]

Hey Paul do you know this Guy McPherson. He is a great scientist & knows much more on this. You must definitely follow him.

[@SamWilkinsonn]

lol he’s not even a climate scientist. You know how idiots think Elon musk’s a genius?

[@elixir2687]

@SamWilkinsonn Shutup u dumb b!tch. Anyone ask ur opinions!

[@A.BC-]

​@@elixir2687 PAUL knows Guy for many many years, and he dispices him... Paul does not like it that Guy was already predicting this info way more accurate and sooner than Paul EVER DID. That said i enjoy both channels, but Guy is #1 for looking at MORE realistic thinking!! 😊

[@ArnoldvanKampen]

More aeroplanes over the Arctic to create these stretching condensation trails: more reflection. And sulfur back into heavy fuel oil for ships..

[@DrSmooth2000]

First credibly tie human mortalities to diminishing sea ice Imo fuel rule has saved half a million people thus far

[@mujkocka]

Holy cow!😨😱

[@carlamcewen2361]

was on nullschool= CO2 over by New York is /Washington, DC, 535. Big leap since this time last year.

[@lindaromero7780]

Hi Newton!

[@frictionhitch]

I am willing to donate wood to a project to create"ice docks". Doc's painted white and floating above the warm ocean in order to give the ice a place to rest. That's probably a dumb idea but it's something that I could do. I have the acreage if someone is interested and knows how to get start-up capital I will contribute. If someone has a better idea about how I contribute I would certainly listen to that as well. This is getting insanely scary and I want to have grandchildren.

[@DrSmooth2000]

Not a bad idea just a question of logistics to mass produce and deliver to Arctic. Lifespan of wood in cold saltwater? Paint used will be ecologically impactful

[@frictionhitch]

@DrSmooth2000 I don't really know it's just my first instinct because it is the only thing that I have to offer. I suspect we could use lime. Someone smarter than me would have to come up with logistics and to be honest someone that owns a forest in Alaska might be better suited for the project if it is even doable.

[@frictionhitch]

@SamWilkinsonn I bought land and I'm working on sustainable systems. I know that I am a drop in the bucket but you can't fill a bucket without first starting with a drop. We gave up everything we owned in order to try. You are right that we are a drop in the bucket. We would be grateful if you joined us and became another drop in that bucket.

[@SamWilkinsonn]

@@frictionhitch I’d honestly love to join

[@frictionhitch]

@SamWilkinsonn you have two options then. Option one, figure something out and do it on your own. Option 2 fly to Albuquerque. My wife and I are in desperate need of hands to save cibola national Forest. Is it going to burn. I have the tools and the know how to stop it from happening. I am just one man and she is just one woman. If you want to come let me know we have accommodations but we have spent all of our money. We have no money for you. We hardly have anything left for ourselves. Selective removal and we'll figure out the rest tomorrow.

[@colinmacdonald5732]

Oh. But weren't we supposed to get this ten years ago? Al Gore said...

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

Biological annihilation is a phrase in googlescholar - there's been life on Earth for 4.6 billion years. So you can do the ratio on what 10 years is to that in terms of error rate of predictability. Don't worry though - the algae will survive.

[@wageslaveuranus9596]

Trust the science

[@SamWilkinsonn]

You’re saying it tongue-in-cheek but you literally should trust it in this case.

[@Patrick_Ross]

You have a very smoochable puppy!

[@Danomax]

I think NASA is right with 2050

[@earthsystem]

❤NASA

[@GrandmaBev64]

I predicted that years ago! Others claimed we would have ice until 2050, but I included the extra heat and erosion occurring under the ice and I got 2025-2030.

[@SamWilkinsonn]

Included the extra heat and erosion into what exactly? Your model?

[@susane945]

Newton is beautiful ❤️

[@SamWilkinsonn]

Great video Paul. Would’ve been better with a music Collab about how Africa are leading the way though

[@sumiland6445]

Newton is HUGE!! 😄

[@albert2395]

Has Newton had too many sherries?😂😅 He looks a bit groggy.😊

[@nsbd90now]

He's intoxicated by Paul's return.

[@herenowlife]

Original it was going to be 2025 but anyhow ! It’s getting there. Earth got hot but what caused the cycle to change in “natural history” ?

[@chuckinshanks]

Drill Baby Drill!

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

oil is from algae so Mother Nature already has you covered. The more we drill the more algae replaces us. It's beautiful in its simplicity. Algae can sequester 100 gigatons of CO2 per year!

[@GERMENDARIALOR-xn1xd]

Hypothetically speaking, 6 years is WAY too positive of a foreshadowing. I would say 10. Due to the character of personas involving studies and how they approach the final result and not the process of the arctic development.

[@globalwarming382]

Hay vagas bookies, give odds on what will happen first. A BOE or AMOC collapse. My money is on the AMOC collapseing the first yr of the BOE

[@OldScientist]

The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 18 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p

[@DrSmooth2000]

Ice drafting? Or rafting?

[@OldScientist]

@DrSmooth2000 Draft. Draft refers to the depth of sea ice below sea surface level. If you are curious about my comment on the Zhang paper, it's easy to look up. On page 2, there is figure 1b showing draft data.

[@Designer_TopG]

There's no solid land mass there correct, so it's giant ice , , and that's slowly all melting ?? But once it's melted , I dont think it can come back. Or can it go back to being ice again ? So what if there's no ice there, things change ,,

[@robertcartwright4374]

There's a solid land mass there, but it's all underwater. Badoom, crash!

[@ArnoldvanKampen]

What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic...

[@alanj9978]

It'll freeze again the following winter. But that's a lot of ocean absorbing extra heat while it's thawed.

[@astrocoastalprocessor]

albedo matters 😅

[@Designer_TopG]

@@alanj9978 Extra heat...in the north ??? Hm absorbing heat would reverse , or offset ," global warming" .... It's all BS these things , let nature do it's thing.

[@zstopperuno]

Arctic sea ice minimum extent 2024: 4.3 million square kilometers. In 2007: 4.1 million. Ice free Arctic in 2027? Doesn't look like it.

[@antonyjh1234]

Why not use 2011 when it was 3.5, or why not use 1979 when it was 7.6? WHy not use from 79 to 2000 when it was above 6? Why use very selective years like this? Are you trying to deceive people that overall it isn't declining, if so what are you getting out of this obfuscation??

[@zstopperuno]

@antonyjh1234 My point is that we've not seen an increase in melting over what we saw 17 years ago. That's a long time without an increase. So suggestions of an ice-free Arctic by 2027 seem highly implausible. We had these predictions back in 2012 for an ice-free year by 2016 and that didn't happen.

[@antonyjh1234]

@@zstopperuno But we did see a decrease in ice after that and we have seen an increase in melting overall, why not mention the overall trend which is down, increased ice melt has meant cooler waters all the way to UK so what is it that you think you are proving because of a slow down of the melt? Isn't this just logical? Are you upvoting your own comments because not sure unless you were a climate denier why anybody would upvote your comment? WHy are you denying the climate is changing for is the main question because your "proof" hasn't proven anything to me and there are logical answers why ocean ice, in the water isn't melting as fast. Do you believe in Accelerated Global Warming and why wouldn't extra cold water slow down the melting, shouldn't we look at the increased amount of melting that you can easily find the information about?

[@zstopperuno]

@antonyjh1234 The largest ever three year decline in sea ice minimum extent was 2009-2012 when the ice dropped by 1.8 million square kilometers. If that happens again over the next three years we would have 2.5 million square kilometers of ice at minimum extent in 2027.

[@antonyjh1234]

@@zstopperuno Why pick on the largest three year trend when at one stage it was 7 million and dropped to 3.5, why not look at the overall trend? edit overall

[@sundaydriver915]

The first blue ocean event should definitely trigger the phase transition which completes the mass extinction

[@theyoeman]

Not trying to be mean, but what is the difference in between a man who likes his chainsaw and gas car and a man who likes dogs? A large dog like yours is equal to the pollution my car emits in a year (I drive 10,000km). Ready to give up your dog in the 'fight for climate change'? Serious question. How about the trip to Jamaica or the oversized house? Where does this end?

[@lacha608]

What is your source for this comparison? I have thought a lot about the problem of people raising and killing animals to feed pets. The cruelty toward the other animals and the cost to environment and climate. I think it is unjustifiable and should be stopped. I think that people should only keep pets that can be fed plant-based. So, dogs can, cats cannot, but most people do feed their dogs animals slaughtered for their food. There are other animals that people keep as pets that fall into either camp. Not that I have the ability to influence the activity taking place on the planet..Many (most?) people are not troubled by the abuse and slaughter of animals for food, or it's cost to the environment and climate.

[@theyoeman]

@lacha608 Use google and read onw of the many articles that reference studies from all over the world. Further, you cannot make a dog vegetarian, it will be sick like all humains I've seen who are vegetarian. The reason? Vegetables contain 1/4 of the nutrition they once did because farm.land has become depleted of micro nutrients. Even worse, they are covered in pesticides, fungicide and herbicide. Meat is necessary for a healthy diet. I eats lots!

[@thearaucariafarmer556]

Baby Newton (all animals r babies 2 me) at least he doesnt fear the coming hardships.

[@williamdavison5641]

This has been predicted within a few years since 2007, Al Gore being only the most famous. There is plenty of Arctic sea. similar to the 90's. Your running out of time the warming cycle could end soon as it did after the heat records of the 1930's that still stand in many US states to this day. The winter of 1941-42 is known as the coldest European winter of the 20th Century. "White Christmas", introduced by Crosby in the 1942 film Holiday Inn has the line "like the ones I use to know" this is a reference to record heat of the 1930's Ski resorts in Europe are opening early this year and US seasons are getting longer.

[@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885]

when you say "you" are you referring to Joseph Fourier who published science in 1824 writing that "the effects of human industry" will heat up Earth? Two hundred years of global warming science!! I guess you have some remedial reading to do.

[@elektrikmaus]

No ice is defined as some ice😂 gotta love science

[@ChimpJacobman]

So if the AMOC shutting down saves artic ice, that's a good thing? Or, are you not communicating the science too good?

[@earthsystem]

I can only shake my head in sorrowful resignation about all these shallow flippant comments without any overview, or sense of context.

[@fosterbbo]

Yes, to the extent the earth's albedo is increased by restoration of arctic ice due to AMOC collapse, overall global warming should slow down. But it's not without cost: as the northward transport of heat is lost an increase in ocean temperatures in the south could increase Antarctic ice melting. Also the decrease of agricultural production in northern Europe due to temperature drop will be significant.

[@tikaanipippin]

Poochbait. As if fluffy white things are predictable and relevant to this fanciful tale.

[@A.BC-]

FLIPPING like a leaf on a tree, 😅. Guy already predicted this was gonna happen!! Paul always said: "Not possible" and look what's happening NOW. ...A FULL TURN AROUND!! 😂...

[@Tsunseyu]

I wish Paul and Guy would do a video together.

[@A.BC-]

​@@Tsunseyu They did years ago in some conference stage with some others, but they don't 'click' together for reasons you can puzzle out if you dig deep enough...

[@lukehoefler4317]

@@Tsunseyu They did years ago but paul has made fun of guy and jumped on the slander campaign. I think he saw the public frenzy of anger against the conclusion that is obvious when all the data is considered. Paul gives us disassociated facts and that seems palatable but when one put in everything including the damned if we do and damned if you don't, then the hopium addicts reject and attack. Paul is wise to sensor his conclusion, or he too will be deemed crazy or worse.

[@piotrwojdelko1150]

I came to the conclusion that after any treaty between Russia and Ukraine west should force Russia for free trade travel through Arctic

[@stephanaitch]

COP29 in Baku was a failure. At least people talked about it (again). 🥸