Are Democrats Turning The Midterm Tide?

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History suggests that incumbent presidents usually lose midterm elections, but recent polling has seen Democrats closing the gap. So which races are they set to win, and why are they bucking the trend? Could Biden do the impossible and win the midterms?
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1 - ca.movies.yahoo.com/cnns-midt...
2 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
3 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
4 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
5 - www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...
6 - www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...
7 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
8 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
9 - www.ndn.org/competitive-elect...
10 - news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abo...
11 - news.gallup.com/poll/393104/p...
12 - www.washingtonpost.com/nation...
13 - www.politico.com/2020-electio...
14 - www.nbcnews.com/politics/supr...
15 - news.gallup.com/poll/393197/s...
16 - www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/...
17 - www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...
18 - www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pres...
19 - puck.news/ozs-great-escape/
20 - www.politico.com/news/2022/07...
21 - people.com/politics/jd-vance-...
22 - www.azmirror.com/blog/gop-sen...
23 - www.cnn.com/election/2020/res...
24 - www.politico.com/news/2022/08...
25 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
26 - edition.cnn.com/2022/06/30/po...

[@mitchjervis8453]

1:48 - You reversed them, Warnock is in Georgia and Kelly in Arizona, not the other way around.

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

Oh my god that looks cursed lol

[@troyyrob]

I was just about to comment this.

[@aaronacj]

Bro isn’t American, talking out his ass XD.

[@komlan391]

@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI fr

[@slevinchannel7589]

No matter who Wins, the Rachet-Effect keeps playing. The Things said and explained by Second Thought in his video 'Stunted Political Spectrum', LET ALONE all the Stuff he says about Capitalism and Water-Shortages, still happens.

[@mister_i9245]

Correction, 538 gives the dems a roughly 50/50 chance of winning the popular vote, they give the dems a 20% chance of winning the house.

[@shyft09]

Its really so blatant, its literally the next graph after the one they _did_ show. Very sh*tty editorial decision TLDR

[@unconventionalideas5683]

@@shyft09 They're British. They are relatively new to the way the US political system works.

[@meh23p]

Yeah gerrymandering is a bitch.

[@fenhen]

@@unconventionalideas5683 That excuse is absolute bollocks. 1) An informative video get basic facts right. 2) The difference between popular vote and seats is just as bad in British politics too.

[@fenhen]

@@jgsh8062 U.K. does not have a close relationship between votes and seats.

[@MeetThaNewDealer]

DARK BRANDON RISES

[@lyxandrast0ttr0n1x8]

THE MALARKY ENDS HERE

[@KlynerKaiOffical]

I really don’t think it’s likely but it absolutely isn’t impossible. Things in politics have shocked me recently so this would be no different, it’s entirely possible for a blue wave rebound this mid turn. Although personally, I think we will be seeing a Republican controlled senate this time around

[@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236]

Its not likely, this entire episode is copeium. Its hilarious.

[@MineChat101]

I think a republicans have the house on lock but their Senate candidates in most swing states are horrible and won’t be able to overcome their opponents even with a red wave

[@Akira-ss6cm]

A republican house still seems likely at this point, but a republican senate is an entirely different question, especially if Fetterman holds on to his lead in Pennsylvania. Wisconsin polls have yet to come out, so that'll be another interesting factor to watch.

[@bald_flop8063]

lol there is not chance reps hold the senate

[@emtheslav2295]

Surprisingly, the GOP is struggling big time to keep the Senate. In 3 of the 4 most competitive seats, they nominated candidates who, according to the polls, are laughably bad: Dr Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. They’re so bad, that many sites have the dems in the advantage. That’s big, since the GOP only needs to flip 1 seat to win the senate.

[@mattweiss7645]

As a lifelong Pennsylvanian, I just want to let everyone know that no, PA is not a Republican leaning state. We are as in the middle as you can get! Our house and senate are Republican while the Governor (for 16 of the last 20 years) and Supreme Court are Democrat. We have one Democrat Senator and one Republican, both moderates. We voted Trump in '16 and Biden in '20. We are the proverbial purple state. Just an FYI.

[@ZacharyBittner]

Accurate

[@nuur2825]

Pennsylvania used to be solid blue not that long ago.....

[@mattweiss7645]

@Icelegacy I think to charactize that election as progressive vs moderate misses the mark. People like Fetterman because of who he is and his genuineness. Both are moderates, Lamb was just lesser known and less interesting.

[@Rob_Cary]

Fetterman is moderate to people who like good policy. He has my full support as a Pennsylvanian and I'm honestly shocked that strings weren't pulled to push diet Republican Lamb ahead of him. Fetterman embodies what the Democrats should have always been. Not neoliberal corporatists.

[@goreangel1258]

Hell yeah, represent the Pennsylvanians (I am also from PA)

[@abydosianchulac2]

The thing about the "heading in the wrong direction" polling is that we're at a place where both sides of the political spectrum have reason to say that, but where the answers for each aren't necessarily bad for the incumbent party. Left-leaning voters can be saying so because of social policy shifts nationally and locally, but that would hardly lead them to vote Republican.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

Yes, that’s exactly the problem with such a statement and polling. Which direction are they complaining about?

[@akorn9943]

Biden was begrudgingly elected the president and people are upset about his lack of progress or vision. But that doesn’t mean that the 81 million ppl who voted for him to stop Donald Trump now think that that Donald Trump guy is pretty cool after all.

[@RobertJohnson-fp9jx]

I say we are heading in the wrong direction, based on the supreme court trying to roll us back into the 18th century. No way this will lead me to vote for more of this rat fuckery.

[@calvinware7957]

Dems also are probably going to look at climate change and answer that question in that we are headed the wrong direction

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

@@akorn9943 nobody will get much accomplished when republicans are set in making sure nothing the democrats want gets approved

[@mbarker_lng]

I live in PA and the general sentiment about Oz is this. 1) Everyone knows he is just grabbing power in a neo-Carpetbagger sense. He doesnt even live in PA and that is well known. He made the mistake of running under the slogan "He's a political outsider" allowing us to fill in "...as in from outside PA". 2) The Right sees him as a RINO, and they are probably correct based on his past. 3) The Left sees him as a rich, snake-oil salesman detached from everyday struggles of average people. In short, he has almost no appeal beyond his fame and the baked-in tribalism of people that will always vote for 'their party'.

[@cristianion2056]

Fetter boy didn't work a day in private.

[@wesleyrichards6045]

As an American I have the fact check the 2010 midterms. Democrats didn’t have a net loss of 25 House seats in 2010 it was 63 seats, and 54 seats in 1994.

[@saucysalmon55]

In fairness, he said that they lost it by 25 seats. They may have lost 63 seats but their seat total was 193, which is 25 short of the number required for a majority (218).

[@jwil4286]

They also had larger margins before the elections took place

[@Lordoftheringwraiths]

And Obama was WAY more liked in his first midterms than Biden is in his.

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

@@jwil4286 yep, so in 2010 a 63 seat gain would be 242 seats. If republicans winning 242 seats in 2010 would be them gaining 28 seats. If republicans gained 63 seats in 2022 they’d win 277 seats!

[@user-je9kb2ce3v]

538 says dems have a 20% chance of winning the house, not 50%

[@jeffaeschroff7516]

This needs to be seen. It is inaccurate to say 538 gives Dems a 50-50 chance to hold the House when 538's House forecast gives them a 20 or 30 percent chance, depending on the model. Also, if you choose to display the national polling average, that does not necessarily match the chance of taking the house. From 2010-2020, Republicans were much more likely to win the House if the national vote was even because of gerrymandering. It seems much closer to even this cycle, but national polling average =/= chance to win control of House.

[@russellwilliams5065]

More accurately, on a GENERIC BALLOT of who people want to control congress has democrats up slightly. Even if republicans win, it won’t be a red wave.

[@Archangel657]

Never underestimate the ability of the Republican Party to snatch defeat out of the hands of victory.

[@frankkobold]

But, come on, honestly, especially after the last presidents - sure, Biden is bad. And the Dems are definitely not perfect (hard to do with such a bad/outdated system/constitution). But how stupid do people have to be to think that Reps are the better option then Dems???

[@jake01120]

Harry Truman snatched a victory out of Dewey Truman was a democrat

[@californiarespublica]

also works as for the democrats sadly lmao

[@fenhen]

@@californiarespublica Seems more appropriate for the Dems tbh.

[@SplashTasty]

Jeez, you guys had 1 job of accurately portraying dems house chances. 538 doesnt say they have a 50/50 chance of retaining the house. Its 80-20 in favour of republicans taking it over, thats just the aggregate polling you showed (and its well within the margin of error), at the same time you showed the forecast for the senate, which is 60-40 for democrats. How you managed to mess one up and not the other is a mystery

[@FishAndBeans880]

Thank you for flagging this

[@Colonel1891]

I hate to nitpick things, but this really changes the takeaway. That’s an important distinction.

[@viktoryanokovich3699]

You misunderstood. When he said 50/50 chance, he was referring to the generic ballot polling, which shows a tight race between both parties.

[@eatyourvegetables87435]

Yeah that was a big whoopsie

[@barackobama4193]

Yeah and 538 is completely independent and not liberal leaning. 538 also said dems would gain house seats in 2020, so really the senate is 95% R and the house Is definitely republican

[@hughjass1044]

Like most any election, it'll depend upon what the front page issues are on polling day. Those are likely to be different than what they are today. The "get out the vote" factor will also be in play.

[@calvinware7957]

I feel like what people aren't understanding about RvW effecting the midterms is that the reason the party of the president loses the midterms is because of turnout. Usually midterms have about a third of the presidents party turn up, a third of independents, and two thirds of the opposition party. So yeah things like inflation and spending are what matter to those Republican voters and normally would be the big issue in an election like this but what RvW does is boost Dem enthusiasm from 1/3 to half and probably gets more Independents to either turn out and vote for Dems or not vote for Republicans because of inflation. Combine that with terrible top of ticket candidates for Senate and governor and this is could be a disaster scenario for Republicans.

[@tomfriendly2412]

Not happening. Sorry buddy!

[@tanker00v25]

@@tomfriendly2412 now that's copium

[@Ryanowning]

Worsening economic conditions always favor the opposing party, what you're saying supports Republicans.

[@TheTotalripoff]

Bold of you to assume anyone cares about RvW

[@barackobama4193]

Dobbs is making Republicans turn out more, and will increase the wave.

[@mv3967]

I’m an independent voter and after what happened on January 6th I won’t vote Republican unless tRumpism is eradicated

[@engineeringvision9507]

So you're not an independent then, you're a democrat voter

[@lud3re384]

It is a lot better to hold the Senate rather than the House. The legislative power lies in the former. Plus, if the damage for Dems in the House is limited there might be enough people on the right who can be convinced to vote with Democrats.

[@SlayingSuperNerdX]

trump primaried 9 "rinos"

[@solarisImperator1786]

Eh the Senate is a lot easier to hold with the filibuster and does posses unique powers such as treaties and appointment approval; however, the House still holds tremendous power in the ability for budget bills

[@robertprice9052]

No, your wrong. The power is balanced between the two. A bill can originate in either house, but must pass both to become law. It doesn't matter where it starts.

[@dkoda840]

@@robertprice9052 That’s the basic role of the legislature, but the senate holds the ability to approve appointments, and has sizable power on treaties. The house has no control over either.

[@john3_14-17]

Both houses have the power to make bills, what is ‘the legislative power’ that you speak of?

[@SS5Ghaleon]

After 2016, I just assume most conservatives just refuse to take polls, which skews data

[@TheDaks27]

But polling institutions adjusted to that fact and in the 2018 polls were fairly accurate. 2020 just happened to be a very messy year and the polls were still right.

[@trey1sandoval]

^^

[@JoseFranco9]

@@TheDaks27 The polls are massivley flawed in some places. Like, days before the 2020 election they had Wisconsin +10 dems and it was a squeaker. Theyre notoriously horrible in Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina.

[@rt_huxley9205]

@@TheDaks27 And then messed up again in 2020.

[@Batmans_Pet_Goldfish]

@@TheDaks27 they try to adjust their data by assuming data they don't have, which is obviously inherently flawed.

[@joelkirkwood8224]

It’s a shame this channel isn’t more popular. I’d love to see more content.

[@romanwagner8709]

I’d say no. Every poll has Republican energy and enthusiasm way up even when Democrats are winning. Plus, I feel that the Mar-A-Lago raid is the Right’s version of the Dobbs decision as far as energizers go.

[@captainwilts2244]

If anything Mar-a-lago might be a massive scandal for the republicans the more we see the effects and details come out. The fact Trump was keeping nuclear secrets and might have been sharing it with the Saudis is not going to go well with regular voters. And turn them off to Trump backed candidates

[@romanwagner8709]

@@captainwilts2244 I disagree. You have to understand that the FBI broke a 200 year year precedent by invading Trump’s personal home. Illegal documents, even nuclear ones, are not worth the raid unless it can be proved 100% that he was sharing them. If they can’t, it just makes him a martyr.

[@usitinoco8]

I dont think so, just because Trump supporters were already excited to vote. Where ass a good portion of democrat leaning vegetables who were debating, will now vote due to the way civil rights are being threatened.

[@romanwagner8709]

@@usitinoco8 The polls say that most republicans, including those who weren’t going to vote previously, are now planning to vote. Most democrats who care about abortion were going to vote anyway.

[@profoundpronoun4712]

I am so sick of the two party system.

[@AnimeGamer0]

I wouldn’t put too much weight on polls - as we all see how badly polls can get skewed from what actually happens back in 2016.

[@theuglykwan]

There's been special elections recently too and dems overperformed.

[@viktoryanokovich3699]

Even the most accurate pollsters from 2020 are showing a tight race in the midterms.

[@jpheitman1]

Don't be too concerned with 2016. Pollsters gave 2:1 odds for Hillary. A 1/3 chance doesn't mean an impossibility.

[@emperorxander666]

And an over sample of the left.

[@Jamandabop]

CORRECTION: THEY ARE NOT BEING GIVEN A 50/50 CHANCE OF WINNING THE HOUSE. THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT AND THE HOUSE MODEL ARE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS. Another thing: at 2:05, you said he had a 4.4point lead, even though it shows a 2.7point lead on screen.

[@phanCAbe]

You went way too easy on Walker. He's a literal disaster of a candidate and he's exactly what you get when you rely on "looking for literally any republican Black person" which is exactly what they did.

[@logananderson7881]

Polls are snapshots in time, and 538 takes the averages of them for their forecasts. I doubt the current political energy for the democrats can be maintained for the next few months, but it all depends on what the news headlines are in October and November. If it is back to "Inflation is killing Americans" the Dems will be at the disadvantage, even if they have no power to address the root cause of inflation (imploding China forcing manufacturing to uproot)

[@jesseberg3271]

True, but if inflation continues to ebb, even mildly, then the front page news is likely to be about states pushing for draconian abortion bans.

[@logananderson7881]

@@jesseberg3271 Unlikely it will take 2-3 years to completely fix global manufacturing problems, so inflation is here to stay. On top of that food and fuel prices will be rising because of the Ukraine War (less so in the US). When Europe gets colder they use more gas and oil. Parts of Africa and the Middle East import a lot of grain from Ukraine and Russia, which means those regions will be less stable towards the end of the year going into next year. Deglobalization is painful.

[@jesseberg3271]

@@logananderson7881 as you say, less so in the US. Fuel has already gone down here, and inflation may have leveled off (i.e. stopped increasing). That may be enough to swing the US election, if it continues. We will just have to see.

[@unconventionalideas5683]

If Donald Trump is indicted, all bets are off.

[@Vaga-Bard]

@@unconventionalideas5683 dude they haven't even got a shred of evidence in 6 years. Why keep up the charade? They just illegal raided his home looking for anything they could find and still got nothing. I don't vote, I'd never lump myself in with the publuc, but geez this trumps going to prison crowd are just left wing q anon. It's been 6 years. How long can you pretend? And even if trump doesn't run, DeSantis has it in the bag just off common sense alone. Democrats have no one. Joe and kamala are the least liked politicians in American history and they have the best chance. Joe Biden government is just a big propaganda machine. They wreck everything then blame someone else, then have the media report that it never happened. Biden held office for 50 years and still has no support anywhere. He's being abused by his colleagues and it's sad. Hillary has a better chance than any eligible democrat. It's insane how all we have are political dynasties and no one else is allowed to win. If an outsider does win they get harassed for 6 years with no evidence of any crime. None, not 1. Thank God this is america. Don't forget these politicians don't care about you. They aren't your friends and never have been.

[@imperators_8700]

So much for this

[@r0kus]

Overturning Roe v Wade was likely a fatal mistake for conservatism. While people don't like to tell pollsters their true (and mixed) feelings about abortion, there is a deep, unstated feeling that women's rights must be restored. That is why the very large turnout in Kansas occurred. Many folks are still conservative, but they weigh fundamental rights higher. With a 60% vote to preserve abortion rights in Kansas, republicans in every state should be looking over their shoulders.

[@sporedoutofmymind]

This is definitely the case. Pro-life referendums have only won by a few points in states that Biden loses by 20 points or more. There is a huge ideological 'abortion gap' that the GOP prefers people not know about.

[@Ryanowning]

Very unlikely. RNC actually polled higher when asked about Roe v Wade. Especially considering that we desperately require the population growth that abortion erases. On average abortion results in -0.5 births per woman which, if corrected, would easily be enough to push us into population growth.

[@solarisImperator1786]

I think you paint too large a canvas. Abortion as a right is insignificant compared to the inalienable right to life that a fetus possesses, at least among Pro-Life. However, the Kansas amendment went beyond even Conservatives when it stated that abortion is cases of rape, incest, and maternal harm/mortality may be regulated.

[@yankeefederer1994]

If anything though, that will also lower the panic for moderates that the removal of Roe is akin to the Handmaid's Tale from becoming reality. If a very red State like Kansas doesn't vote for abortion bans, then there's little argument that the Supreme Court has destroyed abortion access. It's now up to the people, and most people are not for an outright ban. Most Republicans will have to compromise, which is a good thing.

[@nickmccarter2395]

I think the Dems bump from RvW is more in line with people that are hyper concerned with the abortion issue. Most right wingers I know wouldn't rank abortion as ultra high on their list of important issues, the left wingers I know rank it in the top 5. Contrast this to guns, there are WAY more right wingers that put guns in the top 3 if not THE top issue.

[@marcusaustralius2416]

The problem is the mudslinging and hysteria If Biden portrayed himself as purely just the guy getting shit done in a rough time for the country, and instead of focusing on the GOP points just ignoring it, and making them look childish for bringing up inconsequential shit when Americans are struggling to pay the bills, they might stand a huge chance of winning hands down

[@tobiisiba1641]

That is gonna be tough for biden,If biden was getting shit done America wouldn't be in this position.

[@cjmhall]

@@tobiisiba1641 It's hardly Biden's fault though as he can't make laws on his own. The senate is split 50/50 and you need 60 votes to pass almost everything. The Republicans oppose everything he does and there are 2 closet Republican senators who are also blocking his agenda.

[@FriscoFlame]

So small correction, the editor accidentally mixed up the states of Kelly and Warnock, placing Kelly in Georgia and Warnock in Arizona

[@jukeboxpyro8640]

thank you, and have a good day!

[@DralhaEureka]

Is repealing human rights, attempting to overthrow democracy, and running a bunch of absurd, fringe candidates not a winning strategy?

[@selbalamir]

Lol

[@allthenewsordeath5772]

Nothing got repealed, the Supreme Court just ruled that Roe v. Wade was a bad decision, literally nothing changed legislatively on a national level you had as much right to kill an unborn child before Dobbs as you did after Dobbs if you lived in the appropriate state.

[@E3ECO]

Unfortunately, I suspect it will be. I weep for America.

[@anneeq008]

When you elect trump; up is down, down is up. There is no logic in the world. So in short for America I believe it will be

[@rt_huxley9205]

Is conducting a no knock raid with heavily armed agents on a former president/political opponent, causing massive inflation rates on the poor, and having the IRS add 87K agents with a description of using deadly force against civilians a winning strategy?

[@SolarMechanic]

I've always considered overturning Roe V Wade a bit of a bus chaser for Republicans. They make a big show of going after it, but never actually wanted to because they know that as soon as they do they'll wake the silent majority who are in favour of it remaining.

[@Ryanowning]

Sort of. The reason the world is crashing into a depression is because nobody had enough kids. The problem with abortion is that you can't easily get an urbanized population to have enough kids with it in place; even places without abortion as an option struggle. Although, abortion does account for roughly -0.5 births per woman which would push the US into positive population growth on it's own. We need a faction that advocates for premature births to replace Abortion. This will require the development of artificial wombs which is no longer a far off technology. This change alone would easily solve our population collapse crises if instituted in Europe. It's too bad that people don't realize that the reason our economies are crashing is that we're running out of adults because no one had enough kids at the right time (except the US).

[@hectormatias7763]

You serious? The silent majority thinks it's appalling to kill a child.

[@idleishde6124]

@Ryanowning the problem isn't not enough kids. It's too many old people with too much private capital. The Millenials and Z can't afford kids because wealth is tied up with older generations. Their conservative policies are also stifling technological growth (ie investing in old coal and gas rather than nuclear and renewables). Ultimately we just bumped off everyone over 70 we'd fix the population and economic problems pretty effectively.

[@allthenewsordeath5772]

@@idleishde6124 If your solution to everything is fewer people, and especially if your solution to anything is kill people to get to fewer people, you’re probably the bad guy.

[@allthenewsordeath5772]

@@Ryanowning Artificial wombs and genetic engineering and the rest of it might not be too far off the horizon, but it really seems like we should not be opening those cans of worms. Perhaps it would just be easier to encourage more traditional social norms through government legislation and if not a outright band then certainly a great social taboo around aborkion. The issue is everyone really wants to avoid responsibility for their actions, men don’t want to be responsible for women and children, and women don’t want to be responsible for their kids, and people within communities don’t want to actually be responsible for the well-being of their community, we’d all much rather just stay home and watch Netflix and type out rambling KZbin comments like this one.

[@jonaboktr5269]

There’s a mistake at ~1:50, Raphael Warnock is the incumbent in Georgia, and mark Kelly is the incumbent in Arizona

[@joshuabell7761]

1:50 You got those Senators on the wrong states

[@Danieldoomer]

Yep

[@commentor3485]

Economy stays good, blue wave. Bad economy, red wave.

[@caolan3202]

Stays good? We are in an effective recession

[@commentor3485]

@@caolan3202 "good ish)

[@indefatigable8193]

As an American who is paying through the teeth for groceries, gas and vote Democrat… this party is in trouble. I’m not going to show up to vote and honestly a lot more feel this way. If Democratic policy for economic relief is this recent inflation reduction bill then there’s nothing to believe in.

[@Drewstir68]

It’s either too much spending or not enough

[@gatb4387]

Inflation was 0% between July and August, unemployment is its lowest in 30 years, and gas prices have been going down for the last 45 days.

[@grben9959]

@@gatb4387 Inflation was 8.5% year to year in July. The only reason it was flat from June is the release of oil from the strategic reserve pushing down energy prices. Energy as a whole is up 32.9%, Fuel oil is still up 75.8% and gasoline is still up 44% since this point last year according to the CPI report. Gas for July was $4.668 (all grades/formulations according to EIA) January 2021 it was $2.420 by the same measure. We've had 7 consecutive months where food has increased by at least 0.9% per month (10.9% year to year)

[@gatb4387]

@@grben9959 "year to year inflation" Well duh, of course June 2022 prices will be more inflated than June 2021 prices. I'm talking about the month to month inflation. Gas prices have increased compared to last year: again, no one is denying that. THE ENTIRE WORLD is suffering this, yet the US has had some of the lowest increases thanks to Biden's release of strategic oil reserves and now, as I mentioned before, gas prices have been decreasing in the last 45 days. Come October and the situation will be even better. I know Americans hate thinking outside their borders, but these issues are all global because their causes are global (Ukraine war, supply issues from pandemic hangover, etc). Despite that, the US has one of the lowest yearly inflation rates inflation compared to other big developed countries.

[@xavierrosales8704]

Hi! Quick correction! At 1:49 you put warnock in Arizona and Kelly in Georgia! It should be switched!

[@xavierrosales8704]

I mean in the icons/maps

[@joshuaghozeil8061]

Did KZbin cut the audio or is it my system?

[@edpankov]

You gotta keep in mind also that voters who go republican also are less likely to submit information to pollsters. Polls are far from the truth many times

[@irtwiaos]

No, the popular vote always looks to be in line with polls, well except for the Kansas referendum that came out of nowwhere. The final results sometimes are not due to election machinery like the ec.

[@emtheslav2295]

Yep. Prime example being Ohio

[@thepeff]

I’ve been betting on the Dems to win it. The GOP is running roughshod on the Dems but RvW is going to force a lot of people to vote Blue no matter who even with poor polling.

[@lud3re384]

I honestly think that's an overestimation of voters' general priorities. Sure there are single issue voters but few do so because of abortion. If anything could swing the tide, it's the fact that a number of GOP candidates this year are honestly...crap.

[@thepeff]

@@lud3re384 Abortion is THE single issue. Having grown up in conservative churches I can assure you there are plenty of people who will say they are voting GOP but secretly cast a blue ballot. Most people in the US simply won’t abide an America without abortion access

[@johnginter145]

Serious doubt - and I’m not even conservative. It might not be as big of a red wave, but it’s still red. Also Biden is a very unpopular president with very little hard support. And like it or not, elections now-a-days are tied to national opinions. Not only that, abortion is outstripped by the economy, inflation, and energy prices as far as voter concerns go (including for me personally). Only once you look beyond economic issues do you get into issues like abortion and gun violence. Red voter enthusiasm is also higher than it is for Dems. Thems just the facts. It’s not impossible for Dems to hold a majority (in the Senate at least), but if you’re will to bet on it then I got some great Snake Oil for you to buy too.

[@user-yj7ve5zv9n]

​@@thepeff I mean its only in some states

[@ukassoproductions2490]

@@thepeff Before the overturn of RvW I thought for sure there was gonna be a red wave and I was confident that an overturn of RvW would weaken the red wave, but I estimated its weakening would be much less than I estimate now.

[@NameGoesHere-rw4ji]

Hey TLDR Team, this might have already been shared but your Senator pictures for Arizona and Georgia are flipped incorrectly.

[@johnpaulsylvester3727]

1:49 Slight error with the visual aid: Warnock is running in Georgia, and Kelly in Arizona.

[@zacharynavarra7312]

Something I have noticed with TLDR’s American content, it is often poorly researched and filled with misunderstandings/ misinformation. I think this is why their American channel grows the lowest. The primary audience, Americans, won’t watch it because it’s often inaccurate

[@metroidnerd9001]

As an example, they draw too strict of lines on Abortion in the Senate. Yes, it’s very much baked on partisan lines, but it isn’t as simple as 50 pro-life Republicans and 50 pro-choice Democrats. From my understanding, there are 48 staunchly pro-life Republicans and 49 staunchly pro-choice Democrats. The three in the middle (Manchin, Collins, and Murkowski) are somewhat pro-choice, but vary in how far they are willing to go.

[@schroederscurrentevents3844]

I don’t think so. They’ve passed some hard fought legislation which gives a boost, but most of it is spending, which only increases demand via the money supply. If inflation is causing the backlash, the boost will be temporary. But I’ve been wrong a lot, so, idk.

[@viktoryanokovich3699]

Inflation worries everyone, but concerned republicans are more likely to turn out than democrats and therefore make a red wave happen. Abortion pushed democrat to the polls

[@abtinbarzin8369]

If I can just mention one thing, you had Warnock and Kelly listed in the wrong states in the image

[@sndgo1]

You placed the pictures of Senator's Kelly and Warnock over the wrong map outline of the states of Arizona and Georgia.

[@reading101]

I've been following a number of polls over the last few months and noticed a shift... I think overturning Roe v. Wade was a big game-changer. That point is really hard for the right to spin and justify to rational, empathetic independent and undecided voters. Closer to November, the Democrats need to make sure their messaging hits home.

[@ryanmunro4438]

Pretty sure you put Kelly and Warnock’s pictures on the other senators home state.

[@bryanharte551]

I love how Warnock and Kelly’s pictures were held over the wrong state @1:51

[@timsplosion]

I know about the Inflation Reduction Act, but what are the CHIP Act and the PACT Act? Has TLDR done a video on those that I've missed?

[@havehope646]

The Chip Act is a bipartisan bill that Biden signed that funded scientific research it it funded semiconductor chips so that we don't have to rely on China for them

[@havehope646]

The Pact act is a bill that Biden signed that helped veterans get healthcare. Veterans were getting diseases from burn pits so this bill helps veterans get healthcare

[@PrawnAddiction]

CHIPS Act kickstarts microchip manufacturing in America and the PACT Act is more accessible healthcare to veterans who inhaled nasties from burn pits during their years of service

[@havehope646]

Jesus loves you and he wants you to repent and to spread the gospel

[@supbrahimhammer.421]

CHIPS ACT Increases microchip production in America which is a MASSIVE America first W, and the PACT act increases healthcare for veterans exposed to toxins.

[@iamaloafofbread8926]

Dark brandon hasn't reached his final form (those who know, they know) I look forward to his next ark.

[@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236]

This whole episode is a giant cope.

[@xalpacazeu1332]

@@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236 Nope. The senate has a chance

[@loowyatt6463]

Am I the only one surprised how many people are pro choice. I knew it was a thing in America but I thought it was mainly just kept to a few states

[@KlynerKaiOffical]

Most Americans seem to typically think (not saying all) that abortion is morally wrong in cases that aren’t things like rape or a threat to the mothers life. So banning abortion outright likely wouldn’t sit well with the majority, especially with the large percent that support complete legalization of abortion no matter the cause. They exist all over and not just a few states, but a few states are very major hubs for the pro-abortion energy

[@iamaloafofbread8926]

@@KlynerKaiOffical Religion is the cause of why abortion is now illegal. Religion needs to be removed from government.

[@soundscape26]

The majority of the American population is pro-choice in one way or another.

[@aviationbutterr]

@@KlynerKaiOffical really? ive seen the opposite where a lot of people are actually very pro abortion even outside of emergency situations.

[@patrickcasey3618]

I think abortion is very kitchen table issue.

[@francisrinaldi5479]

Harry Truman when he was realizes he lost his bedtime you got back

[@ThePoliticalAv]

1:48 you mixed up which senators go with which states

[@Ry-in-The-Sky]

Okay, so while I respect TLDR and their work, there are several very notable mistakes or misleading characterizations through this video; I presume most of these are a product of time crunch more than anything. Sharing just to clarify things (or at least offer another perspective) rather than to browbeat the folks working on this. Sorry to write a long post, but it's important to inject a little nuance to make the point. *I.* First important thing: the wording here is very particular, but misleading. When they say "538's poll aggregator" puts the Dems' chances at 50/50 for the House, while that is technically correct in a way, it a) ignores something very important, and b) glosses over something else. A). Ignores: House races aren't national, they're several hundred individual local races--You could be polling 20 points ahead of the other party nationally and still gain fewer seats because the margins in each seat will NOT reflect the national polling very often; they barely do at all or ever. (For another good example of this, see the last two Canadian parliamentary elections). B). Also very important to watch the wording. They cite the *polling aggregator* for the House, but cite the *forecast* for the Senate. These are not the same thing, one is an average of polling, the other is the range of likely outcomes taking into account many factors. This paints a much rosier picture for Dems than reasonable. 538's House Forecast gives them more like a 20% chance of winning the House right now. Please don't take this as optimism or pessimism or rooting for one party over another; it's just important for context because the poll average won't give you a clear picture (it may closer to November, though, in fairness.) I believe TLDR specifically chose the House poll avg. to make their point here, but it doesn't actually serve anyone to do it this way without context. *II.* As someone else has pointed out, there was a small oversight swapping, in the visual aid, Warnock and Kelly with their respective states. An understandable mistake, particularly when I believe verbally they got it right. *III.* Pennsylvania isn't a red leaning state, nor is it terribly fair to say it "was perceived as one." More accurately, you would say it's a swing state which should, looking at national trends which looked bad for Dems before, now seems to be trending heavily Democratic for its statewide races. (Pennsylvania is most certainly a swing state; currently one Dem senator, one Republican senator, Republican held assembly but the governor and AG are both Dems; voted for Obama twice, then Trump, then Biden, all by somewhat narrow margins except Obama in '08). While this might not seem like a big deal, it's misleading and important to get right because of the importance of swing states and swing districts in American politics. The majority of offices in the country are reliably held by one party when you look at legislative or statewide elections (including presidential elections, which may seem national, but are really also statewide due to the Electoral College). The handful of states and districts that could go either way get very outsized attention (e.g. PA, Nevada, Wisconsin, etc. and now including places like GA perhaps) in both the media, in campaigns' money and attention, and their priorities may even be given more weight, depending on who you ask, during elections because you know Delaware, Oklahoma, and Rhode Island's votes are all already very clearly fait accompli. I'm a native American and Pennsylvanian, so while it's important to explain why people care about certain states during elections more than others, I just also cannot accept anyone's slandering our hot and cold relationship with both parties. We're a hot mess, and we kinda like it that way hahaha. *IV.* Some comments were making the point Dems didn't lose 25 seats in 2010, and in fact they lost over 60. I see what these folks are saying, but again, I believe wording here is key and something I will somewhat defend TLDR on, because the wording could be improved for clarity, but it's true. While Dems lost 63 seats in Nov 2010, the Republicans were only in the majority by 24 seats (close enough to 25, I guess). 218 is a majority, Republicans had 242. I see the confusion this caused, however. Better wording may have made it more clear. Regardless, thanks for all the hard work, TLDR. I know it's hard to track so many topics with only so many team members and do them all justice in under 10 minutes.

[@Warlock11206]

I am sorry, I just don't trust polling much anymore. And I think the backlash against the repealing of Roe v. Wade will be a bigger factor than anticipated. If the Democrats campaign properly, I think they can keep control of the senate, and gain 2 seats. Also, it is possible for them to keep control of the house as well, although I think it will still be a razor thin margin.

[@jeffreyminer3284]

The graphics are wrong for the senate races if AZ and GA: Kelly is in Arizona; Warnock is in Georgia. (FYI)

[@zfloyd1627]

1:48 you put Raphael Warnock's face on Arizona and Mark Kelly's face on Georgia.

[@BenKaufmanlpandwhmsandbhhs]

You put Warnock's face over Arizona and Kelly's fave over Georgia.

[@xalpacazeu1332]

🤣

[@ferddoesweirdthingsinlife1040]

Wow. Whoever wrote this deserves to be fired. First of all, the statistics used for the House, the generic ballot is completely useless. Thanks to gerrymandering and the fact that there are districts, the generic ballot has not influence on control of the House of Representatives whatsoever. This is also completely disingenuous. TLDR uses which party is more favoured to win for the Senate elections, but instead uses the generic ballot for the House. Those are two different measurements. And also, Pennsylvania was never a red leaning state. Yes, Trump won it in 2016, and one of the senators is a Republican, but their Governor, Lt. Gov are both Democrats, the other senator, Bob Casey Jr. is a Democrat too. Before 2016 and in 2020, Pennsylvania has been voting blue for decades, and is a part of the so called blue wall. I’m unsubscribing from all the TLDR channels. It’s clear that they don’t do their research properly at all.

[@chriswaldrip2739]

You got Warhawk in Arizona, and Kelly in Georgia. It’s supposed to be the other way around. ;-)

[@gamerforever4837]

4:43 Hey check it out, it's the freaky monster from pan's labyrinth

[@BenjaminDirgo]

They do not have a fifty fifty chance of holding the house like you say in the intro. It's more like 80-20 chance for the republicans. You show the generic party poll which is not how we vote in USA. The generic party poll only shows general feelings of the average voter, not which party may win in the election. There is no "generic ballot"

[@calvinware7957]

The issue here tho is with Biden being as unpopular as he is Republicans shouldn't be at a margin of error difference on the house ballot. A few weeks ago we were talking about how many seats Republicans would win in a house lamdslide. Then a week ago it was about how slim a majority they'd have when they were only 2% ahead of Dems. Now they are tied.

[@BenjaminDirgo]

@@calvinware7957 That's not quite what I am saying. I am saying there is no way to vote for "Democrat" or "Republican", and the poll they are tied in only says "Democrat" or "Republican". So, saying the "odds are tied in the house" is wrong. They show the correct chart later in the video where it says they have a 20% chance of winning the house.

[@Pars3ct]

At 0:55 this flat out isn’t true - FiveThirtyEight has the odds at 79R to 21D

[@herisuryadi6885]

Check 6:36

[@Pars3ct]

@@herisuryadi6885 That just makes it even more confusing as to how such a huge error got past proofreading

[@herisuryadi6885]

@@Pars3ct Yeah its very very weird

[@vroomfondel5447]

​@@herisuryadi6885, the later discussion is better, but at 0:55 TLDR said "...now giving the democrats a 50/50 chance of holding the house." which is simply incorrect. Its wrong.

[@nicholasgamboa2590]

Quick thing, you put mark Kelly and Warnock on the wrong states lol

[@emtheslav2295]

1:41 Warnock’s in GA, Kelly’s in AZ… editing mistake lol Also, Generic ballot is about the popular vote in the house, not who wins it. The house is a done deal, with the dems only with a 20% chance of keeping it.

[@aaronacj]

Save this video and laugh at it in a few months.

[@adamdaniel8909]

I will...

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[@Pepper212]

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INVESTMENT IS THE FUTURE OF FINANCIAL FREEDOM 👌

[@NZAnimeManga]

No. It'll end up being R+4-6 nationally. This is pure hopium.

[@Dan_711]

You had Mark Kelly(AZ) and Raphael Warnock(GA) mixed up

[@bluebonnetdaniel8606]

It's also worth noting that some aspects of the economy have improved since the lows from earlier this year.

[@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236]

yeah instead of a 9.1% inflation its 8.5% and instead of a 3.6% unemployment its a 3.5% unemployment, which you see democrats touting around as the "lowest in 5 decades"

[@Ryanowning]

Don't worry, it's about to get SO SO much worse: and it's not anyone's fault except idiots who believe the Earth suffers from overpopulation.

[@AlexIsVeryBored]

@@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236 Gas prices are also going down.

[@robertprice9052]

not really. Inflation is probably worse than reported. Gas prices have eased off because they are tapping the strategic oil reserve, which has the same effect as government spending and raises inflation.

[@robertprice9052]

@@AlexIsVeryBored because they have started spending the strategic oil reserve. This will drive up inflation and gov spending.

[@conbinspark3144]

Because of Gerrymandering, it will be much harder for Dems to retain the House, but that doesn't apply to the Senate.

[@slimothy02]

Bold of you to assume that the Senate isn't inheritly gerrymandered

[@conbinspark3144]

@@slimothy02 It can't be Gerrymandered because the Senate has a flat 2 seats for each state.

[@eliz6198]

@@conbinspark3144 Yeah but most Republican states are sparsely populated, like Wyoming, Alaska, ND, SD, Idaho, Montana, etc. and they get the same amount of senators as HUGELY populated states like California and New York.

[@slimothy02]

@@conbinspark3144 But the number of states themselves favors rural, conservative areas. There are more red states than blue states. Yes, you cannot change the states to gerrymander them, but they act, effectively, gerrymandered.

[@conbinspark3144]

@@slimothy02 @eli z you both make fair points, but that's due to states being more rural rather than Gerrymandering itself. (Edit die to due)

[@wilfredpeake9987]

There is one thing we are forgetting the prominence of social media before we only had to rely on a few media channels now we are constantly being blasted with politics which means more people are going to vote

[@charliedring4092]

Thanks for the video, Btw you got your Warnock and Kelly / Georgia and Arizona the wrong way round.

[@AloisAgos]

The past half decade has taught me to expect anything and not to take polls as set in stone. Dems could still fail to pass other significant legislation, and repubs could lean even further into Trump driven extremism. Bad as things are looking for both parties, I don't think we've hit a political rock bottom just yet.

[@jds1275]

TLDR is pretty good when it comes to reporting events and the effects. But when it comes to US politics, they are horrible. Their bias leaks through no matter how much they try and pretend it doesnt.

[@alm9322]

It's quite similar on TLDR EU channel. Everything right of Angela Merkel is "far right"...

[@ChampiLechr]

Also, you put Warnock in Arizona and Kelly in Georgia.

[@chocochef3092]

Minor correction when referring to the 2010 midterms. GOP gained an astonishing 60 seats in the House not 25.

[@lucianlawson-foley5967]

He means they were short of a majority by 25 seats

[@jorenbaplu5100]

Maybe they'll keep the senate but the gerrymandering for the house has just been insane.

[@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236]

You do realize democrats gerrymander too right? They gerrymandered to win more house seats in OREGON you can't gerrymander a Senate.

[@theuglykwan]

@@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236 Dems do gerrymander but they have control of far less districts to gerrymander. Plus dems are also more concentrated in fewer areas to begin. Add to the fact that courts struck down a number of democrat gerrymanders. There's also the fact that dems were incompetent at gerrymandering in some states and might have gerrymandered their way into losing more seats as they made the margins too thin.

[@rt_huxley9205]

CA, NY, MY, NJ have been massively Gerrymandered to favor Dems. And only because of the courts have they been tossed out.

[@scrubs3050]

@@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236 Illinois too

[@windowslogo3577]

totally gonna happen lol

[@VENNOM711]

you had Kelly and Warnock in the wrong state animations.

[@user-fu3co7xc9h]

Correction: Warnock is a Georgian senator and Kelly is from Arizona, not the other way around

[@edsova5089]

Just remember that the polls massively overestimated Democrats in 2020, saying that Dems could win a senate race in Kentucky, but they barely won the senate due to Georgia

[@randomhuman2595]

According to 538 the Democrats were expected to win 51.5 seats in the Senate 2020, they won 50. Not that far off.

[@randomhuman2595]

For the House though 538 were more wrong, they expected Democrats win 239.3 seats, they won 222.

[@WeeklyTubeShow2]

50/50 in the House my ass, dude. 538 literally doesn't say that.

[@snowflakeprince]

Thank you so much for this video! Very well done and just plain nice to listen to! 😊

[@gusrobinson7293]

The polling for the house is wrong that’s the generic ballot not the house rating.

[@frog8779]

After the raid on trump? Absofuckinglutely not! In a recent pole my Richard Barris, by far the best pollster in the nation, 70% or so of independents said they think we have gotten further away from freedom.

[@ZekeorSomething]

I think they'll be able to keep the Senate though narrowly but have them losing the House because of Gerrymandering

[@tomfriendly2412]

They’ll lose the Senate and the House because they suck ass and they know it.

[@barackobama4193]

I'd say 55 R seats in senate

[@matthewsisk4769]

@@barackobama4193 the definition of cope

[@ZekeorSomething]

@@barackobama4193 Yeah no

[@marcleach6167]

Mate the democrats are running fraud deniers in Arizona Georgia and Wisconsin That political suicide in those states

[@gia2371_b]

1:48 There is a mistake. Raphael Warnock is a Senator for Georgia while Mark Kelly is a Senator for Arizona. You showed them the other way around

[@losspol_3466]

Lmao you have Warnock in the state of Arizona and Kelley in the state of Georgia

[@martinschmitt9242]

Finally I’m able to watch news about an election I can finally vote in. Excited to help eventually flip Texas blue one day

[@matokrajniak1901]

Blue fucked up California, why do you wanna fuck up Texas as well?

[@barackobama4193]

Sorry, but with south Texas becoming solid R, Texas is staying red forever.

[@trey1sandoval]

@@barackobama4193 that won’t matter. Dallas Houston, Austin, and San Antonio are growing fast and becoming more blue ever election cycle. (I’m from Corpus christi)

[@rebelembassy7527]

Why do you want Texas to become blue? People are fleeing California to Texas because the “blue” people in question are totally ruining the state.

[@JoseFranco9]

@@trey1sandoval Houston and San Antonio voted more republican in 2020 than they did in 2016. In fact, a lot of people from former red areas in blue states are moving to Houston

[@paulmurray8922]

Wouldn't surprise me if Democrats kept Congress. Political rules of thumb have been changing in recent years, an effect of the realignment accelerated by Trump.

[@publicenemy0577]

Nitpick, you have Kelly in GA and Warnock in Arizona. Warnock is GA’s senator and Kelly is Arizona’s.

[@pseudonym9599]

I do not understand why there is a debate on this, the population centers in most states vote on party lines, and they carry the senate votes for those states. Same for the House. There are only a small handful of states where a change *might* happen, and that is not enough to make a difference for both houses.

[@directorjames1855]

Polling and actual voter turnout are two different things. I tend to view polls as unreliable, as it's not showing the entirety of the American voterbase. Sure, the people who were in that specific poll may lean one way or the other, but that's just a small group compared to the entire population of America, or even just one state for that matter.

[@anguswaterhouse9255]

Polls predicted bush Obama and Biden winning in the past. That means that only one election (Trump) surprised people watching the polls. And the law of averages says you can make a reasonable guess off a smaller sample to predict what the whole will be. You know, the reason we have polls at all?

[@batrachian149]

Pollsters are definitely aware of this, and have methodologies to account for it. Never perfect of course, but you're raising a concern so obvious that it's not really a good criticism. It's kinda like saying "I don't trust planes, how's a massive metal machine meant to stay in the air?"

[@davidecolucci6260]

There is Also a statistic i dont remember where, that says that about 25% of voters decide on the day of the vote

[@directorjames1855]

@@batrachian149 I didn't mean it as criticism. I was just giving my own opinion that I don't really trust the polls, whether they favor or oppose my side. I'll see the result for myself on election day.

[@joaquinescotoaleman4320]

@@batrachian149 I can't believe in polls after 2016 and 2020, people will lie almost all the time, anti abortion proposal failed in Kansas recently, Trump actually won massive votes in Latino communities in 2020, Hillary was supossed to win by 15% points in 2016 and look what happened.

[@illegitimateotaku794]

I'm mainly concerned about Democrats' electoral prospects in the Senate. Getting a bigger majority there and abolishing the filibuster is a priority.

[@slevinchannel7589]

No matter who Wins, the Rachet-Effect keeps playing. The Things said and explained by Second Thought in his video 'Stunted Political Spectrum', LET ALONE all the Stuff he says about Capitalism and Water-Shortages, still happens.

[@darkRanzero]

Did you know which party that get rid of the 3/5 majority in order to approve federal judge in the senate? and how it came back to bite them in the ass. and now you want to abolish filibuster? ahahahah spoken like a low-info voter

[@Nunnyabiz15]

Need to switch Warnock and Kelly’s photos at 1:50

[@soundscape26]

I would hope so.

[@youtubeuniversity9098]

It's no longer voting it's fighting. The stronger party prevails in all close voting.

[@Tarvos0]

"Tarnished the Republican brand", really? There was still some luster there behind the rot and bile? Could have fooled me.

[@JL-zw7hi]

538 gives the House a 20% chance of staying blue, not 50%.

[@viktoryanokovich3699]

He was referring to generic ballot polling.

[@mrjava66]

Really guys? Are you committed to getting graphics wrong??? Kelly is the senator from Arizona. Warnock is from Georgia. The graphic was backwards.