Ashley Church On The Future Of New Zealand’s Property Market

[@Scott_Bradbury]

talk about spin lol. Household income used to be one family member working a normal job while the other looked after the kids and done other things. Now it is both people working, the amount of freedom the family has is far less and its necessary for most to afford a home in the first place. Saying people are "Better off" is not looking at the full picture.

[@davey6907]

Reminiscing

[@Kiwisnrl]

Hey Leah, real reason prices did double e.g. the example 500k ten years ago to over a mil now is because of building costs doubling and land values rising. Debt levels are now well and truly at unsustainable levels on 1m properties which is about average property value in Nz. No show of property rising by double now e.g. 2m+ on average without some strong external factor e.g for example nz population is 10m in 10 years. In the 80s the value of a house was only 10% or less of what is now AND key point is households only paying 1/3 of income to mortgage now if only paying interest. If your smart and goal is to pay off as fast as you can it will be more like 60-80% household income weekly.

[@karlseastrand7678]

Somebody tried to correctly point out to Ashley on the One Roof property hour a couple of months back that a huge contributing factor was that lots of cashed up immigrants were flocking here 20 or 30 years ago but he wasn't prepared to even entertain the idea. The money coming in from these immigrants poured into the property market especially in Akld. Nowdays the average immigrant arrives with the shirt on his back and a huge debt to be paid by remitting funds overseas. It is all so obvious to all but the most biased, and willfully ignorant follower of the market.

[@davey6907]

Massive council development and consenting charges

[@jermunitz3020]

Why even have on guests with such an obvious agenda?

[@karlseastrand7678]

This was an absolute shocker, even by Ashley's biased standards.

[@Kiwisnrl]

Reasoning behind why prices went up so high 20/21 is because of once in a lifetime int rates and fomo of mum and dad investors who thought their kids would miss out on home ownership and maxed out on debt and leveraged paper equity on their houses that had artificially gone up by crazy amounts. These numbers now greatly subdued as prices fallen and have lost out on those investment properties as brought high as well as family home that equity used from to buy investment now fallen in value.

[@Kiwisnrl]

It will take a few years at least for the market to rebound from this speculative decision making and have to remember that only a small % of houses per suburb per year go on market for sale which then reflects market valuations for the year. This means only a small % of people are property trading which I would conclude will always be the same generalised group of speculative people in majority trading property like what caused fomo 20/21 and have been whitewashed by the market correction hence will be years to recover so I would say next 5 years should be comfortable not need rush to buy

[@Kiwisnrl]

Good examples on interest by commenters on how someone who brought at peak 2021 for 1M+ vs now for same house. Person who brought at peak has to pay an extra 50% (over half a mil) which would take an extra 15 years or something to pay off vs someone who brought the same house now for 20-35% cheaper and would have paid off mortgage about 13 years earlier and be able to retire with cash flows for 13 years that peak buyer doesnt have.

[@dave24-73]

His advice works on a second house, but not on a first home unless you downsize because when you do end up selling everything else has gone up so where do you live. So for people with rentals yes, first home owners no.

[@mr_smell_nice]

Dave, I've found Ashley Church's advice is always with a "Now is the best time to buy" narrative. But lets see... Him, and another property "guru" Debbie Reynolds of Property Apprentice, were singing the same tune right before the market took a bath back in early 2022. Everyone that took their advice, have also taken a bath 👎

[@dave24-73]

@ if you can buy now you should, as prices will always go up (over 10 - 20 years) my point was more around paying down the loan, or just paying the interest.

[@karlseastrand7678]

His advice used to work on buying a second house. Fixed that for you.

[@PeteDakin]

Sad to hear such weak pushback in the face of such appalling gaslighting.

[@ntskl]

Hilarious to hear Ashley whining about how the only reason for the unsustainable growth in RE valuations is due to the reserve bank temporarily increasing OCR to just above neutral, if at all. These overleveraged boomers are blood sucking parasites on the productive young. They take and take and god forbid the OCR is high enough that young people can actually save for a deposit without inflation completely wiping out their gains. No, the eternal boomer must have his 0% interest rate so that he can buy his sixth rental to continue to leech off the working young.

[@Kiwisnrl]

Best advice money can't buy, the best decision/position is to do the opposite of what economist tells you to do or even better do nothing at all

[@karlseastrand7678]

@@Kiwisnrl He is not an economist, although his woeful history of inaccurate predictions throughout this decade does rival them. He is a self proclaimed property historian whatever the heck that is supposed to be.

[@marklayland5424]

Business cards are about as useless as wall planners, waste time of money.

[@simmo2745]

Hes was once reasonably respectable- he’s completely lost that a few years back after putting up a post about evolution being a fairytale. And slated anyone who responded against it.

[@nifokoula1]

Macro evolution is absolutely a joke. No biologist worth their salt can attest to it with any scientific evidence. At best it’s a theory with no current scientific evidential basis

[@zweed69]

loads of tradies mostly old school builders still use business cards 😂

[@eermama]

Good hard working back bones builders......not property speculators like this Clown......who got in early.....be really interesting to know how many properties he owns

[@DilipkumarSukhdayalSharma]

Keep NZ safest country in the world No to Gangsters and extremists.

[@eermama]

good ol business cards....everything wrong with property and how property is looked at...as a business!!

[@johnmuir2487]

buyers market ?? halve a mill for a property in some shanty town in the south island for that price you can get a house with job prospect in Australia ??

[@eermama]

Australia is super expensive

[@philliprobertlawman2232]

Nothing like the freehold feeling, don't care what anyone says?

[@Peter_Pepper_Love]

But maintenance, insurance and rapes!! 😱

[@peterhughes2941]

Exactly. And if you don’t like it you can always take out another mortgage:) Pay off debt ASAP get the monkey off your back

[@mrs.miller4920]

Not paying the principle and selling after 30 years how are they supposed to afford living elsewhere without having the capital to do so? All they would have done is make the bank rich.

[@Matowix]

Im glad all the Chinese properly investors lost out

[@shokkerbeats3007]

Too late

[@causeceleb]

Not paying the principle off until the end of the 30 years!? No mention of the cost off all that interest payed over 30 years, it doesn't decrease as it does with P&I. So the actual ROI on his parents house would be poor. I've said it before and i'll keep saying it: I will never listen to advice from Ashley Church. He is among the worst of NZ property spruikers

[@達米安馬利]

$75k biweekly changed my mindset and behavior, my goals, my family and I've to say this video has inspired me a lot!!!!

[@達米安馬利]

Big thanks to mrs Kate Elizabeth BECHERER ❤️❤️

[@達米安馬利]

Her top notch guidance and expertise on digital market changed the game for me.

[@SandraEdwards-n9t]

Mrs Elizabeth Kate becherer has truly set the standard for others to follow. We love her here in the UK as she has been very helpful and changed many lives

[@達米安馬利]

Alright, I'll leave her info below this comment

[@達米安馬利]

+142

[@ninaforrester8552]

Let's all restrict the supply of land, create costly regulation. Make money cheap and compete over our housing to create huge capital gains. Then in doing so under invest in business and productive wealth generating interprise. Do this to the point where the banks are making around 3%of GDP profit annually with the private sector debt at 90% of GDP with much of that debt owned overseas. Create systems within local government that are dependant on that new money. The nation going into in recession, with unemployment rising and government in serious deficit, only able to survive by importing people and then behave as if it's normal to do this, the young generation will pay for it, capital gains will go on forever at a higher rate than wages and expect a good outcome

[@jonnynz]

% of household income comments referencing 1980s is misguided. I doubt that the data reflects multiple income household now vs single income then. Often they were only one income & households 40-60% of single income. So if we are now 30%, he should really reference 50%-60% of household income in todays terms of two or even more sources of income to support the value of the payments

[@karlseastrand7678]

He also cunningly uses about a 6 month period back in the 80s when rates went over 20% for a very short period of time. He should be pulled up on this by those who interview him but ofc he never is. I have emailed him several times and he always refuses to debate the actual facts.

[@karlseastrand7678]

This interview contained some of the most illogical, misguided and frankly silly statements and predictions I have ever heard. Ashley simplistically tries to put forward the argument that house prices will continue to double every ten years even though the fact that the increases have outpaced incomes so much over the past 40 years makes this an impossibility. The writing has been on the wall since at least the start of the decade and Ashley is just too ignorant to see it. He made the same sort of ridiculous comments when interviewed by Duncan Garner on the AM show 4 or 5 years ago. All we need to do to realize how pie in the sky his comments are here is to look at what has happened to the 5 year growth (reported in each monthly REINZ report) in almost every part of NZ. Within a few months 5 year growth in most areas of NZ will be less than half the 7.2% PA needed for house prices to double every ten years. In Auckland it is already only about 3% (compounding) over the past 5 years. Time to interview only those who actually have some real knowledge about the market rather than simplistically thinking that just knowing the history of the market is enough.

[@MrADTNZ]

buy Bitcoin and XRP