Where the Economy, and the World, Are Headed

If you want to know where the economy is headed, ask an economist. If you want to know why (and more), ask a treasury secretary, an economic diplomat, a director of the National Economic Council and the president of Harvard. Larry Summers has been all of those things (and more).
Andrew Ross Sorkin, Interviewer
Lawrence Summers
Now in its 20th year, the Aspen Ideas Festival is the Aspen Institute’s signature summer public event. From June 23-June 29, 2024 more than 300 leaders and innovators gather in the Rocky Mountains to engage in deep and inquisitive discussion of the issues that shape our lives and challenge our times, spanning politics, business, science, the arts, education, and more. #AspenIdeas
For more information about the Aspen Ideas Festival, visit www.aspenideas.org.

[@clifftanch]

What Summers said about his grandmother echoes a book by the Northwestern economic historian Robert Gordon. The book is well worth reading.

[@jtjones4081]

Summers; I think credit default swaps are a good idea and shouldn’t be regulated. I think I’ll pass on his advice.

[@SteelyTheVan]

Prices are up but corporate profits are up 6 fold. Hmmm

[@alexkocharov4292]

Common Sense Larry. Thank You.

[@tonywilson4713]

You mean common sense from the guy who said straight to Jon Stewarts face that sacking 10 million Americans would be a good thing???????

[@alexkocharov4292]

@@tonywilson4713 It is not 10M. but only 5% of the population. In economy, it might be the best option out of what you have. In that case what doing the Yellen and FED should make inflation worth which will effect not 10M but 100M.

[@tonywilson4713]

@@alexkocharov4292 What a brilliant and typical BULLSHlT economic answer. I bet you never include yourself as one of those 5% we should sack.

[@alexkocharov4292]

I have 2 universities behind I studied for 19 years in school to save in the job market. I did not procrastinate my time. I am not lazy to ask for a penny. "What you can do for your country not vice versa"

[@patrickwal55]

Smart guy, mostly vapid evasions. He is sharing < 1% of what he knows that would be truly useful and surprising for this audience in this context. Instead, mostly pointing out the obvious.

[@imtryinghere1]

Delusional interpretation of his responses and lacking in comprehension

[@patrickwal55]

@@imtryinghere1😂

[@cheersmodreams691]

Good conversation. Larry Summers, here, is far more animated than he is on Wall Street. It's refreshing because he has a voice and perception of the economy and politics that needs more attention.

[@clifftanch]

Harvard has no comparative advantage in nurturing EQ - so why will Harvard survive?

[@ireneuszpyc6684]

Enron boss said: we have the smartest people in this room- they will always find a way to make money; Harvard is like that too

[@Larryake]

entertaining and thoughtful

[@mfu9943]

Great to be see an invigorated Summers.

[@JohnChampagne]

Beginning almost an hour of discussion of the economy. A safe prediction is that we are headed for a more degraded environment and further erosion of social cohesion, because discussions of economics do not include any mention of dishonest prices (externalities), which make harmful practices profitable, and they don't include mention of the idea that natural wealth belongs to all and should be shared equally. The biggest issues facing humanity are the challenge of getting onto a sustainable path, which requires that we make prices honest, so that profit will align with what is environmentally responsible, and the challenge of assuring economic security and social stability, even for the poorer half of humanity, because we cannot expect perpetual economic growth (and the ecological destruction that that implies) to lift billions out of poverty in the next decades. We can promote sustainability and end poverty by charging substantial fees to industries that extract resources, emit pollution or otherwise degrade environmental quality, then sharing fee proceeds to all people. (It takes about a minute to say it. In the next minute, someone could mention that a system of random polls could reveal whether various kinds of environmental impact are being held within acceptable limits, in the view of most people. Fees could be adjusted, or the number of permits offered for sale at auction could be adjusted, accordingly.)

[@investing7883]

23:13 what was that

[@novakdjokovis]

feels like hes happier nice

[@jimmymichaud2129]

Would it be better to tolerate elevated ation over the next decade as we re-industrialize a 21st century manufacturing capacity that would produce lower inflation for decades to come?

[@thanoskoumpanis9699]

short on elon?

[@nancya7289]

yay!

[@Letsgetdinner]

The condescending dismissal of chamath, sacks, Elon, ackman, etc is interesting

[@carbonneutralindiana8009]

"narcissists"

[@joycekoch5746]

Summers sounds like a guy trying to talk while passing a Bric.

[@jawedz]

Justifying a genocide, apartheid and naqba. Criticism of a foreign state is not racism. Justifying the naqba is.

[@farzana6676]

Naqba is just the word Palis use to make themselves feel victimized after they lost a war they started.

[@jawedz]

@@farzana6676 The ethnic cleansing by armed colonisers and settlers.

[@ChuckSilva]

The music is horrible-come on!

[@reallyfrodo]

His comments on Palestinians are frustrating. The reason people care so much is because it's American money and weapons involved in their oppression. Why do people not speak up as much about other people's suffering? Because we aren't paying to bomb them. I echo his ending - I find your blindness to that fact makes your motives... suspect.

[@jordanbertagnolli7388]

A presidents' policies have a significant lag effect, meaning that trumps' inflationary tax cuts, tarrifs, and out of control spending drove inflation after he left office

[@zeuschronos446]

Yeah that's how Obama got me to vote for him the second time ! Only voting for trump cause of the nuclear football issue. He's an elite, that's conned the MAGA's that he's gonna help them. If getting to vote for a politician make you feel that you have a say in how the USA operates then the YTube algorithm and main stream media has captured you. I expect trump to screw the poor(me) and the middleclass over.

[@thomashorn5829]

Is this more likely or is it having higher defects than ever before in a non depression or recession?

[@B_knows_A_R_D-xh5lo]

😊😊😊😊😊

[@SupertasterM]

Comments on AI and the scaling of world events are really interesting and intuitively correct. He must have been quite amazing as an educator.

[@edmundlively8137]

Automated insight, AI is the SingularitY because it can improve itself without guidance from humans. Whoever is lucky enough to own NVDA can now just sit back, relax, prop his feet up on the desk, and wait for the money to roll in. 😮😮

[@roberthuismans3533]

The most startling thing about Summers is his absolute party first stance and his commitment to Keynesian nonsense.

[@Vicky-Blue]

Speaking out against genocide when the perpetrator is Israel is considered antisemitism. Ok ✅

[@ISpitHotFiyaa]

Yeah, I was very disappointed in his answer to that. Lot's of whataboutism. Other Arab countries haven't been friendly to Palestinian interests? OK. How does that justify Israel stealing land, killing people, and blockading Gaza for 15 years? He should have passed on that question. He's not a foreign policy expert and it shows.

[@farzana6676]

Genocide is what we saw on Oct 7th.

[@metrictensor9730]

This discussion tells me that Larry isn't as wise as people like to claim and it deeply worries me that he has a say on so many decisions.

[@ChuckSilva]

Larry Summons is a no nonsense intellectual-huge respect!

[@chunmuhe4860]

when Larry Summers start talking don't learn coding, then you will know how badly the AI is exaggerate!

[@witHonor1]

There's an error in your description, I'll fix it for you. "If you want to know where the economy is headed, DON'T ask an economist." They have no clue what they're talking about. They live in a hypothetical world that they try to manipulate to match their hypothesis. It's backwards from science. It's a belief system, it's a religion. When we get into the idea that economics is more than the trade of goods and services, then involving a currency to facilitate that, we've arrived in Lalaland.

[@vallmak]

Larry Summers pushed the Biden stimulus and now he's blaming it for inflation? WTF

[@henry8438]

Is elon a top 100 ceo? What about stephen schwarzman ? ... they're all supporting trump this time.

[@nancya7289]

Thx for asking this. First google hit was CEO World which described Elon as 62nd out of 100. Other dude did not make it.

[@henry8438]

@@nancya7289 thx, The CEO of SpaceX, Tesla, and X is 62nd, and Stephen is CEO of Blackstone with a net worth of 38B can't make it?

[@nancya7289]

@@henry8438 didn't see him on that list. no idea about who makes the list and how. brief google!

[@pldevries]

Summers looks,s ounds and acts like someone just dragged him out of a bar. His time as a pundit or economist has come and gone.

[@cultureclique2173]

You invite a corrupt guy to this session? A guy who contributed and benefited from the 2008 economic crises? Thats what’s wrong with this world.

[@Zzz-lz9kb]

Did he just gloss over the internet as not as great an invention and not on the same level of positive impact and innovation as indoor plumbing? He was right about inflation but he is starting to sound more like a grumpy old partisan than an objective economist.

[@ISpitHotFiyaa]

I don't think you really appreciate indoor plumbing to the degree that you should. We couldn't have dense cities if people were still using outhouses. Plus we'd have cholera outbreaks all the time. The modern sewer and water system is a pretty big deal. The internet is great but it mostly replaced a lot of things that were perfectly fine. I mean if I had to go back to physical newspapers and magazines, paying bills by mail, and watching TV instead of streaming I wouldn't be happy about that but I could live. Giving up showers, sinks, and flush toilets would take a lot more getting used to.

[@jose98937]

why you even bring up semetism ( wrong to answer, of course, you are one) ? fortunately you got your answer. sadly people like altmen, et al, will use or abuse AI even more to subjugate freedom of speech of those who you object as point of view like the remark he et al made on how student must be banned merely because of their point of view. That where, humanity should must, and is more than terrified.

[@gordonsteen8415]

Great talk.

[@askartop2628]

okolosinagoga)))

[@TheControlBlue]

Even a smart guy cannot be free of his affects and phobias. If your kind had been more concerned about what Trump was saying instead of who he is, you could have seen things like October 7 and the Harvard protests coming. But hey, NO MEAN TWEETS!

[@user-on2vb6ln8c]

Thanks for this talk.would just like to say L.S.is exactly who I thought. Not much of a visionary. Just another business /financial wall street guy who values money and financial bottom line over real Thought and progress for civilization.maybe next ideas festival you get some real idea people. I say sell or short!!

[@nickdanesh9179]

Brilliant man, He should be president

[@danstevenson6228]

echo chamber

[@dukerobert7283]

Oh? When they say "the world," they mean USA. Lol, alright. America's decline is fascinating to observe from the outside. Funny country ❤ Funny people ❤ 😒

[@guru47pi]

I really was surprised and with him until he got to what he calls 'anti-semitism'. Real anti-semitism exists and is a problem, but lobbying for Palestinian rights is not anti semitic. He also created a complete strawman to try to silence pro-Palestinians rights protesters by saying 'shut up if you haven't lobbied just as much for every other human rights issue'. Those people very likely are criticizing other human rights issues, for example in favor of black lives matter, pro-indigenous rights, etc. You certainly don't know what other issues they've acted on, and didn't provide any evidence. Generally those 'on the left' also support those issues. Second, the Arab countries are not helping Palestinians, and that's a problem. But they're also not actively bombing and starving Palestinians, or occupying land and building settlements. People are criticizing the govt that is currently doing the damage for the last 7 months. This criticism is like saying 'sure I beat my wife, but my neighbors didn't succeed in stopping me, so it's not only their fault, but also you can't criticize me. '' These aren't logical arguments; they're facetious appeals to emotion to try to delegitimize protest that is really just saying 'don't use US funding to kill and displace millions of civilians just because they're not in your ethnic group. '

[@farzana6676]

Israel is on the frontlines of the fight against radical Izlamist terror. Izlam as a whole needs serious introspection, and needs to shed its 7th century medieval desert, jihadizt ideology.

[@someghuy4782]

Larrys thoughts on AI are so delusional its laughable

[@brendatenorio5721]

Summers is economic power house, philosophical poor house.

[@farzana6676]

Lol Larry Summers is suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

[@bstewartny]

You NEVER ask an economist where the economy is heading. If that was true, then economists would be the best investors in the world, and would be incredibly wealthy due to their investing acumen. However, most commonly the opposite is true. Instead better off asking successful traders and investors.

[@danielarak]

Actually Summers is a very successful and wealthy investor

[@theonlycaulfield]

Clif Asness, billionaire head one of the largest hedge funds in the world, was an economics phd candidate. Keynes also grew very wealthy through investing, much of it in a period where the market as a whole performed poorly. Summers has also been quite successful as the other mentioned.

[@ireneuszpyc6684]

the average hedge fund lasts 6.5 years: you need to heed advice long-term successful managers only; not the latest hot shot

[@bigal8986]

Just some Libby 🐓🍭🧚 FJB

[@objectivethinker3225]

Larry is a smart guy but he needs to learn to put his bias against Trump to the side. Trump was President for 4 years and his policies certainly didn't tank the economy or cause inflation.

[@pjf55]

No, a worldwide, unprecedented epidemic did

[@imtryinghere1]

Trump exploded the deficit -- nearly doubling it to almost $1 T a year, even before the covid pandemic hit. The tax cut he passed was totally reckless. The bill would come due eventually for the borrowed money and unpaid for spending, in a Trump second term or Biden's term, even without covid. A short term sugar high of tax cuts that are unpaid for and passed onto the next generation is nothing but gamesmanship and sleight of hand. And I say that as a person who voted against Obama and hated his policies.

[@justwhenithought]

What Larry talked about are trump's policies that are either new or spicier old ones.

[@objectivethinker3225]

@@justwhenithought I'm glad Larry can see into the future. Also the spicer old ones like tariffs on China have not only remained in the Biden administration but tariffs have actually been added on certain Chinese products.

[@olderchin1558]

Biden followed Trump's policies almost to the letter and failed. If America wants to put America first, it has to sacrifice America good. Anti-China policies don't bring back jobs to America or stabilise it's yoyo economy, it has to be anti-gobalisation. Tariff all imports with very small exceptions. The working class will be happy but the elite will not.