Robotaxi Fact, Robotaxi Fiction & Everything in Between - AAH 725

[@kevtheobald]

Shocking, Gary hit another valid point about companies not having until 2040 to get their EV tech and production competitive. I think by 2030, it will be obvious who is going to survive and who is going under.

[@GabeWil]

@@kevtheobald You’re correct. But maybe it won’t even take that long. Sales have collapsed in the largest car in the world for GM, VW, Toyota. Unheard of mergers or major Japanese companies just occurred.

[@h3e44]

Like Gabe said I don't think it'll take that long

[@philipcopeland3409]

Humm! Seems like a conversation between Blackberry & Nokia fans - just prior to the launch of the first iPhone. How can you have a discussion about Robotaxi's and not mention Tesla Cybercab? It's designed to be automatically cleaned, has wireless charging and is going to cost a fraction of what a Waymo car costs. How many of you have been for a ride in a Tesla FSD v13.x? Strongly recommend you try out v13 as its extremely good. BTW - most Tesla owners don't pay $8K for FSD - you can subscribe for $99 / month - which is a very reasonable price.

[@Jackolivierbo]

Sooooo true !!!! Such clueless experts. Ask Steve Balmer what he thought about the iPhone back in 2009 !!! LOL.

[@davemiller6121]

Sometimes, your vision is too introspective. You start talking internationally, and then you focus on the US market. If the Big 3 automakers can't compete internationally, they will fail.

[@pspublic13]

I really wish they had an actual economist on this show. I agree with you, neglecting international markets is guaranteeing long term extinction for the domestic auto companies.

[@billroush2520]

Yes, these inexpensive Chinese EVs will find a market in the rest of the world, Indonesia, central Asia, BRIC countries etc. Even the UK has no tariff on Chinese EVs.

[@matthewlewis6653]

Interesting conversation thanks autoline and the Alysin Malik (the guest) !

[@Jackolivierbo]

Sorry to say but Alysin is a sad person who i am afraid to say has little clue about what she is talking about. This is mis-information at its best. Tesla is worth over 20 times GM and 30 times Ford because of its full stack software layers and hardware (all developped internally) with the latest FSD 13, which is truly magical. You just need to try it. Anyways, my two cents opinion.

[@AutolineDetroit]

Our apologies to Alisyn, we had her last name spelled wrong in the show and description box. It's Malek, not Malik. We've fixed it in the description box, but just wanted to get the fix out there for everyone to know the correct spelling.

[@kevtheobald]

Gary sort of hit on the biggest issue, company culture. Legacy builders are not risk takers and focus on making Wall Street happy. Love or hate Musk, to his credit, he laid out a plan and pushed to make it happen. There were people saying to just keep making the Model S, do not worry about going down market or doing orher things. Wall Street understood selling expensive electric sedans. Musk has rolled the dice over and over again. Most CEOs are risk adverse. Legacy company culture is risk adverse.

[@Jackolivierbo]

They will surely end like Nokia, Motorola, Palm and Blackberry. It is unfortunate but they searched for it. GM had the most amazing tech, invented the EV battery bed architecture, and had great battery technology. They could have easily won. But these companies have a self destructing culture, like VW and they will go but bust, most likely before 2030.

[@astranc]

The take away from this interview is most of the benefits of fleet maintenance, predictive maintenance and FSD is all based on software. Is that a core legacy strength? Or is that a Tesla strength.

[@Jackolivierbo]

Tesla market cap of 1.2 trillion, 20 times that of GM and 30 times that of Ford gives us the answer. In my view.

[@highlanderapparel]

Hey gang, another good example was about seven years ago. I was working down in Sydney Ohio at aluminum plant that made gutters and they had the coolest little self driving AGV. It went to a certain spot in the warehouse. It picked up coils of aluminum and it dropped them off at the same spot. It was pretty slow and safe, but it was one less fork truck driver they needed, and everybody loved it the @Highlander PS kindness is always free. Use it every day.😊

[@dwightlarson6449]

not just for Detroit....the US needs to get ready

[@kevtheobald]

Government programs supporting battery tech and production not only impacts electric vehicles, but many things that use electricity. The current EV revolution was sparked by persons electronics investment in battery tech. The furst Tesla Roadster was basically filled with a bunch of batteries developed for personal electronics. Everything from balacing power grids to heating homes are impacted by battery tech and production. I am fine with shifting away resources to getting consumers to buy EVs to helping push battery tech R&D and improving battery production.

[@komisiantikorupsikoruptord6257]

China government go Ballistic. With their 5 year economic plan 😂

[@mikecarter5034]

I think if oem’s would use same battery connection and mounting in order to have a battery exchange station it would change the minds of many! We would have battery exchange stations take the place of petroleum stations and it would eliminate the “local use only” mentality on an ev

[@Jackolivierbo]

In my experience Tesla Superchargers are a good solution for long trips, even if, agreed, not perfect. 700 km real life autonomy is the key in my view.

[@jongabrielsen3868]

I love the concept of EREV's but lets face it, they are nothing but Elextro-Diesel Locomotives as light vehicles plus a small battery. The idea occurred to me in the late 1970s but I had no where to go with it.

[@gnoxycat]

My lady owns an BMW i3REX ... the check engine light is always on. Its a crappy EV that needs oil changes. Not a solution, not then, not now, not ever.

[@jongabrielsen3868]

@@gnoxycat My own bad experiences with owning a BMW makes me wonder if the issue is BMW, not the concept.

[@komisiantikorupsikoruptord6257]

90% of trips are always under 100km. So EREV is pretty good. Especially when the system charger is still rare.

[@ptrsrrll]

Notice how the fret over young talent going to California - WRONG. The talent is now going to TEXAS.

[@Jackolivierbo]

Exactly, to Tesla and Space X, among others.

[@GabeWil]

How can one possibly claim robotaxi margins won’t be >30-40% without specifically addressing how Tesla will build 2-seat, safe, light, incredibly efficient $18k robotaxi’s that cover over 83% of taxi rides? Because they are so light and efficient, smaller, cheaper, lighter batteries will cover the same distance. Efficiency begets efficiency. Cost savings beget further cost savings. Perhaps because she is on the payroll of a remote management company she was told not to comment. The same phenomenon that’s been going on for over a decade. Experts omitting key parts of the story. No one can compete with Tesla’s model. No one. That does not mean that other companies won’t provide limited robotaxi service in geofenced areas of major cities at significantly higher prices.

[@pspublic13]

How can you claim the opposite without evidence? All you did was throw out the same kind of vague engineering lingo and principles that every guest on this show uses to prove their own point.

[@jed2049]

Dude, this show is totally clueless about developments at Tesla. They have obviously not experienced V 13.

[@Jackolivierbo]

So clueless about what Tesla is doing. This is the state of our "auto experts". They like to work for and promote Blackberries and Nokia tech, i Guess.

[@tribalypredisposed]

Of course it means no one will provide geofenced “limited robotaxi service.” Why is someone going to put higher priced services in place? Tesla has already shown the big twenty passenger vehicle perfect for airport to parking lot loops.

[@jongabrielsen3868]

The anti-friction bearing (Ball and Roller Bearings) sector has standardized cross-competitor and design standards so anyone outside automotive can pull their anti-frisson bearings off the shelf at NAPA or Advanced Auto or of course directly from any manufacturer. But every engine bearing is engine specific. Did it really have to be that way? and even in anti-friction bearing automakers insist on designing model and subs-system bearings specific only to them. I merely cite the specifc areas I have worked in but it is all across every vehicle.

[@deanmitchell9568]

What she said at 37:46 is spot on. I fall right into that demographic. Whatever is cheapest to buy AND maintain will get my money. Until than I will keep driving the 04 Avalon because I can't afford anything new and shinny now or anytime soon.

[@jongabrielsen3868]

John, imagine if U.S. automakers applied what you talk about the Chinese doing with applying off-the shelf components toi developing EV's, to ICE.

[@andrewvercillo7584]

Love you guys never talk about Tesla. They are making batteries and power trains in the country and GM didn’t follow and it’s too late for them. They will go out of business soon. They will be able to make trucks for 5-10

[@Jackolivierbo]

Yes, indeed. It is like they were experts talking only about Motorola and Nokia back in 2010, not mentioning the iPhone. A category killer. We love clueless people dont we. :)

[@kevtheobald]

John is not only right about as battery costs drop, ICE or EREV are going to suffer, but he seems to over look speed of recharging. Many buyers considering EVs are turned off at the idea of sitting at a public charger for 30 minutes. If 200 miles can added in 5 minutes, it would kill off most of ICE sales.

[@GabeWil]

@@kevtheobald Model 3 and Y charge to 50% in 15 minute at Tesla Superchargers. People only need to use superchargers a minority of the time and most people have homes with garages and start the day fully charged at >300 miles. You have to stop thinking about EV’s like gas cars. You just don’t need to go to the gas station 98% of the time. Your gas station is your home! Yes - we need more solutions for apartment dwellers. Robotaxi is months away. Large scale, a few years. Don’t believe it? Turo a Tesla with FSD supervised V13. It will drive you door-to-door with rarely an intervention. Get hands on experience to understand in person how advanced Tesla’s tech is today.

[@KiranRajaJoshi]

He did mention infrastructure. Also, there are EVs in China with batteries that charge from 10-80% in 12 mins. Of course, you also need the right power infrastructure. There are also battery swap stations that take just 3-4 minutes. NIO has over 3000 in China. These technologies will only get better. If or when they'll arrive to the US, that's anybody's guess.

[@JackLemp-tm8fg]

Cars could charge much faster with current batteries but the life expectancy would drop drastically. It’s a trade off.

[@kevtheobald]

@JackLemp-tm8fg I get they can charge faster, but battery tech that pushes up charging abilities while keeping reliability would be key. It is interesting to see 6 speeds seem to be less of an issue based on data colkect last year. It is clear the industry is still learning and evolving. Temperature management was very basic less than a decade ago and now there is some amazing systems out there. The Li Auto Mega Van supposedly adds 300 miles in 10 minutes. I am sure that is under very ideal conditions and that battery is very large. It will be interesting to see how reliable that package is over the years.

[@georgepelton5645]

I switched from EREV to BEV road trips in 2016. Charging is not a limiting factor for our family road trips. I save the 5 minutes it takes to go to a gas station. Instead I plug in at restroom and meal stops. It takes no extra time, as the car is already sufficiently charged before we get back to it.

[@danielhull9079]

Michelin and QNX

[@andrewvercillo7584]

People buy from the heart?! They are smart.

[@montyhall2805]

Cruise brings nothing to the table for GM. They're a lidar and HD map based L4 robotaxi w/ remote operators. Now GM wants to go end to end mapless. This is *not* in cruise's wheel house - and everybody thinks it is. Ultracruise failed because GM thought they could have in house DL perception and mapping - they failed miserably. I think it's GM's last hurrah in the AV space. Warren turns into integration/testing and they'll purchase COTS L2+ in 2-3 years.

[@jongabrielsen3868]

Is it that Automakers don't have deep enough pockets or that they Nd their investors don't have a strong enough appetite for that level of risk?

[@elvinthalund5193]

If you have enough/more money the risk level is much lower, hence Waymo is still around as google is funding them.

[@geo8rge]

"PANEL: Alisyn Malik, Middle Third" I think she spells her name as Malek.

[@Jackolivierbo]

She is hopeless, in any case. :)

[@jeffreymorin6480]

Think of the society impact of AV and even L3. The car won’t hit a human. So people will just cross a street wherever. If you’re in the AV it will be frustrating to get through a busy street. Also think of a single young woman driving through a bad neighborhood. Bad people can easily stop the car and get her out. Now people are afraid to step in front of a moving car. Having confidence a car will automatically stop has some un-intended consequences

[@bobwallace9753]

Robotaxis have cameras. Cameras will capture video of jaywalkers and instantly report the problem to the police. If your door is locked people are not going to "get you out". And in the event of an attempted break-in, the robo can drive away. Try to think.

[@andrewvercillo7584]

Of course people want less exp naive products!!! That’s a dumb statement. Why do you think Hyundai, Kia and the likes succeeded here. People wanted inexpensive vehicles.

[@scanspeak00]

Be careful what you wish for. Autonomy-: - Is less safe than human with driver assist - will cause people to lose the ability to drive a car - will cede control of transportation to the state - will cause huge accident liabilities for manufacturers - has huge capital costs - has no real benefit for the public

[@dclpgh]

Sigh....... Another think tank type on the show. I get it. Your sponsors wont let you go but so far with who to invite.

[@Jackolivierbo]

So sad to witness how far humans will torpedoe themselves under the right incentive.

[@jed2049]

Chick is clueless. Tesla will OWN this space. John !! Have you not tried FSD V13 yet?? If no, you are not doing your job.

[@josephvcenzoprano7528]

If this is representative of how Legacy Auto thinks, they are doomed.

[@Jackolivierbo]

Yes. this is the end of the dinosaure age. And we have three of them in this Podcast.

[@M3W3]

China learn from Tesla, why the west legacy auto want to learn from China? I don’t get it. You learn from the master, not from the disciple.

[@johnrasimas2502]

They never talked about the next gen customer 5hats want high tech not bev,s😊

[@michael-qp9xd]

This Alisyn giggles like a 7 yr old every few minutes. Why is this? Nothing funny. Adds nothing. Just my opinion maybe others like.

[@Carguytct]

It seems like a nervous habit.

[@Jackolivierbo]

It is because she knows she is telling a bunch of BS. And that the companies she is working for are doomed.

[@billh2294]

Tesla is full of believers and the power of that is tremendous. Legacy auto is full of either 9 to 5's or what's in it for me?

[@Jackolivierbo]

They became beleivers because the drove the cars, went on long trips, and could not believe the amazing technology of those vehiciles. I am nuts about all sorts of cars, but it is the first time in my life I am driving a car for quite some times, without wanting to change it. The latest generations Model S and Model 3 will just blow your mind.

[@WIMPY.MCPOAT]

You guys don't get it! Nobody wants that junk! Not even for $10,000. No!

[@geo8rge]

The Nissan Sakura (Japanese: 日産・サクラ) is a battery electric kei car en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Sakura

[@highlanderapparel]

Sean, please send me your contact information for your show. If you could add it in the comments great. The Highlander.