Avalanche of Job Losses, FED Driving Economy into Recession with Danielle DiMartino Booth

Interview recorded - 5th of February, 2024
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Danielle DiMartino Booth. Danielle is the CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm.
During our conversation we spoke about Danielle's thoughts on the markets, what the recent job losses mean for the economy, whether the economy is currently on its last legs, could commercial real estate be another credit event catalyst and what this means for the FED in 2024. I hope you enjoy!
0:00 - Introduction
1:30 - What is Danielle thoughts about the economy?
3:55 - Already in a recession?
4:45 - Where will interest rates go?
6:00 - Is Powell making a mistake?
7:00 - US going the way of China?
8:40 - A job hasn’t been created until February 2023?
12:20 - Will Powell make bigger cuts?
14:10 - Is Powell looking at leading indicators?
14:52 - Any unique data points?
15:50 - Commercial Real Estate - a catalyst for another credit event?
18:40 - What would Danielle do as Chairperson of the FED?
20:43 - Cut interest rates while continuing QT?
22:22 - Which assets could perform during 2024?
25:00 - One message to takeaway from conversation?
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered to guide portfolio managers and promote financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets - both in the United States and globally.
Since their inception in 2015, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather and The Weekly Quill have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Danielle DiMartino Booth -
Website - quillintelligence.com/
Twitter - / dimartinobooth
KZbin - ‪@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI‬
WTFinance -
Spotify - open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG...
iTunes -podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
LinkedIn - / anthony-fatseas-761066103
Twitter - / anthonyfatseas
Thumbnail image from - www.foxbusiness.com/economy/f...

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Do you agree with Danielle that we are just at the beginning of the job losses/recession?

[@petergozinya6122]

You'd have to be a b00b to disagree. PS: Stop censoring comments. She wouldn't dress like that if she didn't want people to notice them puppies.

[@SkankHuntForty2]

No.

[@vitalsigns6403]

No. Also inflation is not 1-3%. Try 11-13% in real life.

[@prolific1518]

​@@SkankHuntForty2 you're right. It hasn't even started yet.

[@financialm3771]

Yes, we had extremely high inflation for a couple of years, now we're swinging too hard in the other direction, straight into rapid deflation.

[@vitalsigns6403]

There is no deflation at all in my family’s budget/prices: food, dining out, home prices, rent, kids needs, tuition, utility bills. NONE of these prices are deflating in price at all.🤷‍♂️

[@waqidj]

None exactly.

[@emailsender7139]

Not according to the demented criminal pantshitter.

[@drajdew1664]

You are wrong. if you don't need to eat, pay for gas, pay for services, or pay for homes/insurance, then you'd find deflation everywhere.

[@vitalsigns6403]

@@drajdew1664 😂👍good point

[@sewnsew6770]

Gas prices down where I live. And packages of bacon are much smaller lol

[@stevenwalker4923]

The only way for consumer prices, home prices, and rent prices to go down is a recession. Things are way too expensive.

[@emailsender7139]

And get the insane spending politicians out of office.

[@tagsoneveryting]

Correct. Politicians are pushing the recession effects back with fiscal spending. Added my Treasury and Fed floating banks. But the Govt can't float things forever. Nor should it try. The sooner we get to a recession. The sooner prices drop, the sooner people get real relief from record high prices. Politicians and Wall Street are like alcoholics who keep drinking to avoid reality. But it slaps you in the face at some point.

[@gregorysagegreene]

Yes, but can we all *still* hang on that long ??? 🤷‍♂️

[@JustMe-gx4xt]

But that means that homeowners will loose (again) and banks will get bailed out (again) and repo all the homes. Americans loose, corporations win. We cannot repeat this chaos again.

[@gregorysagegreene]

6:00: You should have picked up on the fact that she said something very dramatic: "There hasn't been a single fulltime job created [in a whole year]!" 8:40: My bad. You did. She answered well.

[@user-xo1gg4zi8n]

I agree with her outlook and she is covering a lot of territory. The bottom line is the world economy is headed for a depression.

[@Resmith18SR]

I love Danielle.

[@somejohndoe3004]

Great guest, looking forward to hear her take on the bigger picture. Quality content, well done ! 🙏

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks for watching, was lucky to get Danielle on the podcast. Hopefully more high end guests to come!

[@snowyskylar8821]

Excellent interview

[@user-sk5im3vr7h]

unless you are like 25 idk how you can say 5 % is high interest , idk why is so hard to understand that low rates benefits the wealthier the most

[@jhutfre4855]

Everything benefits the wealthier.

[@fkrr5]

Great interview

[@RichardSKLim]

Danielle, you mentioned Singapore's commercial property market. I would say the residential market too. Singapore's property market bubbles were blown much bigger by multi-billion dollars money launderers /market riggers from China!

[@gregwang8628]

So it’s again blame China for everything? That’ll bailout America again?

[@issenvan1050]

Why didn’t Basel III take gold a lot higher?

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@christophermccormick8670]

Cheers

[@Resmith18SR]

So getting back to 2% or lower rates will be good for this economy? Sacrifice increased inflation and unemployment just to save commercial real estate and bond holders?

[@user-zo1jv4eg7k]

CRE is a wide sectors, hotels are booming atm and they are in the cre sector. Therefore every class of cre needs to be looked at individually. Saying cre is bad is like grouping a group of Americans together and saying they’re shady because they are Americans. Some may be but others aren’t.

[@ryan56ify]

Description says recorded Feb 2023 just fyi :)

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks! Still making that mistake 1 month into the year 😅

[@joelballard4955]

I hope so. We need pain, weight loss, massive bankruptcies, and the size of government cut by 50%.

[@VinnyIrish-ho5qi]

yet market keeps making new all time highs

[@PostMeridianLyf]

Because they fired all the employees and bought back their own stock.

[@prolific1518]

​@@PostMeridianLyf exactly why stock buybacks should be illegal AGAIN

[@paulsaragosa371]

Captain knowledge

[@paulsaragosa371]

It's started in roswell new Mexico 1943

[@peterbedford2610]

CRE has a tough sector...office space.. She's being very general. shoddy analysis

[@user-rc7gz4ok4e]

At least we got a "Fall Guy" in all this--the Fed. That's what really counts.

[@YesCivic-R]

How could Japan afford to have -.06% without any inflation? Guess how much is the average monthy mortgage payment, below $1000 for 400k loan. How much is the property annual tax? $500.

[@TheSnerggly]

42,000 tech workers like myself have lost our jobs over the last 2 months… we are in a Recession and it’s going to get worse by the end of March.

[@LUIS-633BANK]

👨🏽‍💻

[@gregwang8628]

Should we still believe those statistics published by the number crunchers?

[@WTFinancepodcast]

I think the key thing is understanding the shortcomings of each statistic, as they often aren't representing the full picture. Thanks for watching, appreciate the support!

[@angusmackaskill3035]

Actually no, unemployment rates fell last month and there is a serious labour shortage

[@paulsaragosa371]

Looking at hurricane Katrina

[@paulsaragosa371]

Captain gemstone

[@paulsaragosa371]

The flooding in CA

[@paulsaragosa371]

Power outlet

[@Myscentsei]

App "gig" jobs report and stocks boomin'...🚀

[@paulsaragosa371]

A brave new world s hand maids tale

[@ViceCoin]

No new fulltime low wage service jobs. Plenty of new full-time jobs in AI and data science.

[@prolific1518]

Not true. Companies are firing all their employees and using the funding Biden is handing out to buyback stock.

[@paulsaragosa371]

Please watch the movie 🎬 classic 1989 cyborgs

[@paulsaragosa371]

I'm not a very tiny little seed of a brainstorm

[@issenvan1050]

Then, why does she defend QT after saying all that stuff?!

[@paulsaragosa371]

Sabres on the road a lot more than fee way back road safely home 🏡 taxes may also check out ncic inter pol

[@niceguy8305]

Cisco just announced 10000 layoffs

[@paulsaragosa371]

Captain kirk

[@paulsaragosa371]

U r OK

[@Jeffrey_Gauntt]

There are tons of jobs, the problem is that people too think they are above being a tradesman. Well, good luck with that app to fix your toilet or car.

[@scottpoll1401]

All these rate cut predictions have all been wrong….

[@louiscastillojlc]

😂 does that make sense !

[@friarnewborg9213]

I like DDB better with lighter make-up, LESS is more sometimes

[@Willfully_Ignorant]

Who is she kidding, she has been making excuses for Powell since he pivoted at a 4% inflation rate.

[@JustMe-gx4xt]

Which industries are hiring in 2024? All is see is layoffs and fake job postings across the board.

[@JustMe-gx4xt]

Does anyone know which industries are hiring? A Google search shows tech industry is booming, but that's a flat out lie.

[@paulsaragosa371]

Another man ic Mondays

[@paulsaragosa371]

Ohno boog boogie paws 🐾

[@paulsaragosa371]

The show must go on song lyrics by the three dogs 🐕 night

[@paulsaragosa371]

And free zing chilly will ys

[@paulsaragosa371]

I don't need a PhD program or documentation

[@HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu]

I see here only bearishnes. In reality market is telling different story.

[@paulsaragosa371]

Rem and the Stimpy

[@georgejarocki6111]

Really? I believe when i see it.

[@garrybuckley1503]

What did we learn from this particular podcast ? Not much, maybe this maybe that ,typical of nearly all of danielles podcasts don't waste your time no offence to Danielle or the host

[@financialm3771]

🛫🛬🔥🔥🔥🚒

[@paulsaragosa371]

A universal basics income global economy depression 8oomillion x8 the world s global

[@keenemonnathebe9152]

Demons shaken... Hallelujah....

[@paulsaragosa371]

Ai robots 🤖 and other movie 🎬 show with Rob bins Williams in the robots 🤖 1990 s movie 300 billion s times faster than anyone

[@paulsaragosa371]

Captain because of thy bugga bears 🐻 🐻‍❄ clubhouse and the dinkle man's backpack 🎒 and the truth of thy snacks

[@petergozinya6122]

(.Y.) 👀

[@drajdew1664]

what recession. People are spending money like drunker sailor. Danielle has been so wrong for so long. I pity her clients.

[@paulsaragosa371]

Captain obviously doesn't have any other ideas

[@bver1149]

Fed stooge❤

[@avernvrey7422]

The doomsayers had to switch over to hours worked now, because almost all the other metrics don't even give a hint of their (constant for years now...) dire predictions. I've come to think of these nonstop doomsayers as just scam artists peddling their financial products, newsletters, subscriptions, etc.

[@gregorysagegreene]

Just because you 'Financial Traders' refuse to acknowledge the overwhelming majority of bleeding cracks in the system, doesn't mean they haven't been wrecking it to the bone and dragging it out papering it over with zombie plaster flesh as they go.

[@paulsaragosa371]

Only 40 million people are going to be able to drive the car 🚗

[@drajdew1664]

she is a perma bear and all these you tube videos have gloom and doom headlines for clicks!!

[@TheSnerggly]

Okay boomer

[@jcd3869]

She has been a doomer and missed one of THE most epic rallies in history!!! Listener BEWARE!!!

[@danlee6997]

How many millions of dollars has been lost listing to this con women.yet people keep falling for this nonsense.

[@jtiii8000]

There might not be another person more Negative than Daniel in the entire country.. My company has hired several people , So not 1 person hired in the country since last February Rubbish BS.

[@gregorysagegreene]

0.6%, a tenth below the epic start of 2008, is effectively zero nationally ... even if on the ground there are handfuls here and there. What are you hiring? Repo Guys, Debt Collectors, Receivership staff, Government contractors ???