Awards Magnet special episode: Top Oscar experts debate their 2025 winner predictions

After the nominations were announced, five top Oscar experts from major media outlets debated their winner predictions in the top categories: Gold Derby's Debra Birnbaum, Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg, Deadline's Pete Hammond, and Indiewire's Anne Thompson.
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Gold Derby features celebrity videos plus expert predictions, tracking who will win Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, Tonys, Golden Globes and top reality TV shows 'America's Got Talent,' 'American Idol,' 'Dancing with the Stars,' 'Survivor,' 'The Voice' and more.

[@slimnave4846]

Remember when Clayton Davis thought Ridley Scott would be winning Best Director?

[@shaharkapili1809]

Picture: The Brutalist Director: Brady Corbett Actor: Adrian Brody Actress: Demi Moore/ Mikey Madison Supporting actor: Kieren Culkin Supporting actress: Zoe Saldana Original screenplay: Anora Adapted: conclave Cinematography: The brutalist Production design: brutalist / wicked Visual effects: dune Costume: wicked Makeup: substance Score: brutalist

[@211ange]

Boring

[@duarteferros5775]

I’m open to guests but we need our weekly dose of Chris and Joyce pleaseeee! Btw I’d love for Sebastian Stan to happen… that would be crazy

[@joshdevouge1294]

Would love it if Anne joined Joyce and Chris sometime.

[@jennifer5512]

Chris and Joyce are usually Thursday

[@stereomanuk]

It would be crazy if Stan did an "Adrien Brody" to Adrien Brody in beating out four tough contenders to win. I can't see it happening as we saw last year that they aren't shy in giving someone a second Oscar when another choice was possible, and if they don't give it to Adrien this time around then I don't know what's the point of the Oscars.

[@CatMichaelchuck]

Can we get an update on Tom? Kinda weird that he hasn’t said anything. Is he ok? He was so great at these panels!

[@pamelac81]

Anne did say Sebastian Stan would not get Nomination at Oscars.

[@kat76woman]

Thank you, Pete, for at least mentioning Sebastian Stan. Do I think it will happen? No. Does I wish for it against all odds? Yes. People had also thought he wouldn't make the nominee list because of split votes and fear of a DT-tantrum. (A win would also be a great F-U to DT, and you also know, he would give a great speech)

[@mihaelaistrate9875]

I want to see the biggest surprise.....winner Sebastian Stan!

[@josephdegn1024]

I think Mikey Madison wins actress. I think people are overestimating the effect of Demi Moore’s Golden Globe win

[@JoshFriedman786]

@@josephdegn1024 Yeah, Demi Moore's frontrunner status feels like Angela Bassett from two years ago. A genre performance that's all narrative and no passion.

[@thespenserdavis]

After all of the back and forth with snubs and misses at various guilds, "The Brutalist" still got eeeeverything it needed on Oscars morning, including Editing (which was not a forgone conclusion) and all three of its actors. No, it's not the nominations leader, but it doesn't need to be. "Emilia Perez" could easily be "Joker" this year, leading with nods and taking home just 2 or 3.

[@HairTiesForGlorfindel]

I'll always cheer for Seb.

[@BatuhanGokgoz24]

Tired of Joyce and Chris. Get this 5 more often!

[@pauldacanay2502]

Demi Moore for the Gold😊

[@JoshFriedman786]

@@pauldacanay2502 Nope, Demi Moore is kinda like Angela Bassett from two years ago. A person that has done average work that everyone thinks is a frontrunner for a genre performance with no passion behind it. 😁

[@Wakawaka888]

how many of you out of the 5 did watch I'm Still Here? I keep seeing these predictions of experts that didnt even watch

[@daniellebittencourt9820]

Clayton Davis is the only one there that has watched so he knows how powerful it is.

[@FandomWatcher7]

If Joyce and Chris aren’t in the episode, this should go on another Gold Derby podcast channel. Reeks of the new higher up trying to get her name out there on the backs of the success of the younger employees who made this podcast what it is.

[@geordanmendes5296]

Fernanda Torres 🇧🇷🏆 wins for BEST ACTRESS!

[@pedrobarragan746]

Kudos on Clayton for bringing up the batch of voters who would not vote for Karla. Pretty sure the “3 ambassadors” are in this category.

[@prberg2]

Interesting conversation, but lots of people talking over each other and that made it hard to hear what everyone was saying.

[@mudstyle5288]

Joyce knew this would happen

[@juliaderamon9520]

I think Zoe Saldana will the Oscar but I'm rooting for Ariana Grande to win.

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

It's gonna be Grande. She's the frontrunner now. She has 14 wins so far.

[@keiar951]

@@AntsTheaterCorner2698having 14 wins doesn’t mean she going to automatically win

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

@@keiar951 She could tho. It's not a done deal but it could still happen. Especially with SAG.

[@keiar951]

@@AntsTheaterCorner2698lily gladstone won sag but she didn’t win the Oscar so…

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

@keiar951 She also didn't win BAFTA. Gladstone won a bad combination. Globes and SAG. Stone had Globe, BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards.

[@jennifer5512]

Kieran is going to win guaranteed even if he just gave the same performance he did in Succession. Guy Pearce deserves.

[@straightfromtheheart]

Right now I think Emilia Perez wins Picture, Timmy Chalamet wins Best Actor, Demi Moore wins Best Actress.

[@khorkina2010]

Emilia Perez deserves the Razzie, not the Oscar.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

​@@khorkina2010🤭

[@julieAmarshall]

Deborah we only want to hear from Joyce and Chris.

[@lucasrossi6771]

Fernanda 💚💛

[@lytaquiroz1524]

It's funny that the element that they used to say Timothee wouldnt win cause he is too young, they Adrien Brody won his first at the same age and in his first nomination; this is TC' s second, and he has already been in seven best picture nominees I would love Sebastian Stan to win, or Ralph Fiennes to win But Timothee is a good choice

[@SleepFan771]

I think Timothee Chalamet can really win for playing Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The Academy love biopics, doing dramatic acting, singing, playing guitar, playing harmonica, and he's campaigning like crazy. Mikey Madison could still take Best Actress and Anora could still take Best Picture. It's beloved by audiences and critics. NEON knows how to campaign really well too. I still worry Demi Moore has to fight The Academy's bias against horror.

[@Dav_135]

Mikey cannot defeat Demi’s narrative, and some voters are going to turned off by voting for a performance of a sex worker to win best actress

[@KaiOpaka]

​@@Dav_135My big issue is that they tried to do that whole thing with not having an intimacy coordinator and she acted like it was because they had such a close relationship but it's very easy to abuse the system and they were wrong for doing that. Also what about the crew? Intimacy coordinators are not just for the actor's benefit. I honestly felt a shift in momentum from her the minute she came out with that comment and I can't think it was a coincidence.

[@socaldude9789]

Some of these panelists seem full of themselves esp that insufferable guy who called people monsters who would never vote for Gascon. Emilia Perez sucked

[@KaiOpaka]

He meant because she's trans. Hopefully, that's not got anything to do with why you didn't like the movie. It has enough legitimate reasons to deserve to lose.

[@popcultureinc.853]

We don’t care about you!! We want Joyce and Chris!!

[@MelancholicAwesomnes]

We can have both and they will be back!

[@siralphey]

Those two are boring, be serious😭 But to each their own💀

[@InsertCleverNameHere0]

Speak for yourself, as much as I love Chris ans Joyce, I kinda miss when these slugfests used to have a murderer's row of pundits giving their takes.

[@wesleynewsam]

I love both. We get Chris and Joyce all year, so this is a nice shake-up

[@KaiOpaka]

I want Gold Derby podcasts as often as they can make'em. Love Joyce and Chris. Love the others (I assume Charlie is off somewhere breathing into a paper bag thinking about you-know-who's inauguration...). It's fun not having all those wet blankets hating on awards shows and awards for just existing. Thanks to all the GD experts and editors for supporting us awards junkies.

[@dariosanchez2557]

Emilia Pérez is clearly winning editing. That category and Best Sound are very tied together. This year only two films are nominated for both: Emilia and Wicked. Emilia winning editing is its path to win best picture. It's so clear.

[@MonkeysLove]

Porcelain War for Best Documentary win! ❤

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

Shocking people say that Wicked is darker than Conclave. It's so true tho.

[@renanschleiden]

59:10 first of all, Zoe Saldaña is not Latina, she is from New Jersey, and don’t even start with the “dad, mom, granny” whoever Latina lol.. 95% of the cast is American, I’m not a crazy Ariana Grande fan, but you all are underestimating her a little to much hahah

[@piadox]

Zoe Saldaña is Dominican and very proud of it. So don't speak of that which you do not know anything of 🙄

[@renanschleiden]

Just open your google app and search it up and stop talking sh*t, she’s American, f*ck whatever her parents grandparents aunts are. She is still American.

[@renanschleiden]

how can people be so dumb, darling she’s still American at the end of the day regardless of daddy mama or granny. Born and raised in New Jersey 😂

[@piadox]

@renanschleiden you don't know what it's like to be first gen immigrant. She used to spend a lot of time in Dominican Republic growing up, and speaks perfect Spanish. She's not J Lo who barely speaks Spanish. Im telling you this as a Dominican person. Zoe has even made Dominican movies!

[@renanschleiden]

@@piadox you are clearly not understanding my point. The cast of the movie is 95% American. Including Zoe. Good for her that she grew up there or whatever. That is still not what I’m talking about. Sorry if you felt offended

[@charliemartial4897]

Watch everyone’s faces when Clayton Davis speaks. 😳😳😳😳

[@anthonymcbride9942]

This is great going into awards season. I'm a screenwriter and hope to be there one day.

[@KaiOpaka]

Good luck, Anthony!

[@whatsup4825]

You're not Ron.

[@sarkisdrejian5395]

all they have to do is to remember movie history, and they are bad even in that...mediocre, bunch of mediocre people, like Salieri said: Mediocre america

[@jarm8618]

Anyone but Emilia Perez for best picture

[@Jessica9013Ha1]

Emilia Perez was just bad. It was not a good movie

[@jennifer5512]

Agreed. I can't believe the industry loves it.

[@shaharkapili1809]

I really enjoyed the first act. Then the movie kinda lost narrative coherence for me

[@dcpapi]

Emilia Perez sweep

[@bn5271]

It's actually a great movie. One of the best of the year, undoubtedly.

[@don5anjos]

Experts?😂😂😂😂😂

[@joeyhollywoo]

It’s so frustrating that Brody is the front runner. Timothee is by far the best of the year

[@YUKASI8]

No he’s not. Did you even watch the brutalist? lol

[@weezerocks]

What happened to Tom o’Neil? Is he okay? Retired?

[@JoshFriedman786]

Yeah it was announced in September that Tom O'Neil retired and Debra Birnbaum an Amazon MGM executive is his replacement. I really hope Tom comes back soon because Debra isn't good at moderating.

[@KaiOpaka]

​@@JoshFriedman786 She's barely done any of it so you can't possibly make a good call about that yet. They basically just chopped up one panel and she and Marcus talked a little bit and they chopped that up. She was more relaxed as a guest. In addition to that, Tom did overlap and talk over people plenty back in the day. Shouting them down every so often. The women at Gold Derby definitely get more criticism, including the GOAT, Joyce. My only criticism would be that Clayton clearly has thoughtful things to say and I'd like to make sure he has a space to say them. I think that's more the other panelists' fault than Debra's but if she's made aware of the issue, she might address it in the future by looking out for just such a situation.

[@JoshFriedman786]

@@KaiOpaka Man you're even more mental than anyone gave you credit for by writing two really long paragraphs about something when everyone feels the same about the issue with Debra. Getting criticized has nothing to do with gender, it's about incompetence.

[@tthemonsterr]

Wtf is this we need Joyce and Christopher

[@KaiOpaka]

There are other people who contribute to the slugfests. Calm down.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

🤭

[@adamhartman3510]

Who I Predict: Emilia Perez Brady Corbett Adrien Brody Demi Moore Kieran Culkin Zoe Saldana Who I Want: Anora Sean Baker Ralph Fiennes Mikey Madison Yura Borisov/Kieran Culkin Monica Barbaro

[@JoshFriedman786]

Colman Domingo shouldn't have been nominated twice is a row over actors like Daniel Craig who have never been nominated. There's nothing special about either of his performances. This is the terrible results you get from diversifying of Academy.

[@Meghan-h2y]

Lmao 🤣 Oscar voters not watching SNL, these predictionist people are underestimating Timothée. I'm not a fan of him but I've been captivated by his acting and I think he deserves it. Tim's SNL successfully made it to Hollywood Access and news. It would catch the voters attention. What do you think of them, old (yes they are) watching on a black and white television? Tim, Brody and Ralph are the lock three. Colman may or may not, depends on nominations on major precursors but Sebastian will not win, lol. He's just there to watch. Not to mention the recent campaigns he's doing and some actors backing him up which I know were close to some Academy voters. NBA (KAT) has expressed his opinion of winning the Oscar, that's a big giveaway for sports fan to voice out that, "yeah, it's about time." For Brody, he could win, but he won before and I'm not saying just he won before doesn't mean he should win now and give it to somebody else. Age will matter, but Brody won the same age with a phenomenal acting, but this time, I call it's Timothée (also for being the first youngest actor to be nominated for Best Actor) which surely reach to where it should reach the destination.

[@stephaniemoore9122]

It’s that attitude that ppl don’t respect or care about the Oscar’s anymore it’s not about the performance. If U want to have the Academy Awards have an audience & Hollywood continue in to be dominate in the industry not gonna happen Dune 2 being screwed no Chalamet again 2x for Dune & CMBYN. beautiful Boy & now ACU all r not seeing the whole picture he deserves an win

[@KaiOpaka]

@stephaniemoore9122 If it was about the performance, Judy Garland would've won. It's never been about that and (this is directed to a number of people) I'm sorry but it's naive and ignorant to believe that it was. Y'all need to research Oscar history before complaining. I'm sorry but I'm sick of these comments popping up constantly when Tom himself has debunked it. A trade organization is having a popularity contest. Some people are asking their kids which animated film to vote for. It began as an attempt at union-busting. It was never fully a meritocracy.

[@xenialiashko]

I love Ann, a queen 👑👑👑

[@AEF95]

Atleast demis narrative is about her career, fernandas narrative being about her mother is ridiculous.

[@patrickmarques2876]

Umm... I don't think I agree. Fernanda's mom was snubbed exactly 20 years ago at the very same place she was getting her award and I think it made sense. Her narrative for the Oscar would be completely different and she explained why she talked about this at the Golden Globe's.

[@jupaukowski]

Fernanda's career is fantastic, she won Cannes in 86, but she didn't do many international recognized work. Still, one of the best Brazilian actresses of all times.

[@Iagoharper]

Not to mention the narrative, her performance is the best among the 5, if the Oscar is fair she takes this

[@eccentricexploringape1246]

Editing is like the worst part of Anora

[@bn5271]

Davis is the worst. He says a lot but nothing interesting.

[@bn5271]

And Feinberg is ridiculous. First "September 5" everywhere, now "Conclave" everywhere.

[@calixtolucass]

Torres 🇧🇷🥰

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. I'm looking for Wicked to sneak up with a Best Picture win. 😁 It's beloved across the board and will due fantastically on a preferential ballot.

[@KaiOpaka]

At this point, I almost wouldn't mind it. It was popular (pardon the expression) and well done. Nobody minds except folks that probably wouldn't have liked the movie no matter what. That or Conclave which looked gorgeous. Ironic that neither got a director nom. Starting to root for The Substance to cause chaos. Emilia Perez isn't getting trifling internet criticism. Mexico and the trans community are pretty upset. It's Crash meets Green Book. Starting to wonder if one reason for no Original Song performances is they don't wanna have to stage things like El Mal.

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

@KaiOpaka It's also because they actually secretly enjoyed Wicked more. It's safe to say that all the original song nominees sound terrible live and especially the ones. from Emelia Perez. Top of that, it's a Netflix film, Netflix is incredibly problematic with the public. Wicked however is strangely benefitting from the inclusion of no original songs because they all sound terrible live due to AI enhancements in the studio. The actors couldn't sing in EP and that's why they needed AI tech to make it sound good. This is coming back to bite them because Wicked is the one that uses no AI in anything. It's all real, authentic and real stunts too. Jon M Chu's film is already taking SAG Ensemble and the two Actress could cause a major stir with wins in both their categories because of how much their film is beloved. I can see this happening.

[@keiar951]

@@AntsTheaterCorner2698it’s weird u think majority of academy is going to vote for them like be fr

[@AntsTheaterCorner2698]

@@keiar951 They are. It's gonna happen. You watch. What happened so far confirms it. It's the safe pick and the least problematic.

[@keiar951]

@ if not then what ?

[@cleitonlima3812]

Fernanda Torres 💚🇧🇷