Backgammon: Match Equity Table (MET) and Neil's Numbers (Lesson 5)

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

Small mistake in the third example (2a/9a) given towards end of video. Neil's number would be estimated as 5.5 at 9a, not 6.5. So 5.5 times 7 score difference + 50% = MWC of 88.5% for leader. MET shows 90.20% so fairly accurate given the estimation.

[@CYRILLEJacob]

if you put the neil's at 5.66 is close to 90%

[@bypmg]

MET and Neil’s Numbers understood thank you! But how am I supposed to use it in my cube decisions?

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

More complicated, I'm afraid. You can derive take points for example from the MET by Risk/Risk + Reward, by working out winning chances at different scores if you take, pass, win, lose etc. Good luck.

[@Chesscolin883]

Thanks Dan, made Neil's numbers easy to understand.

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

Thanks for watching

[@nicoscuba]

Thanks Dan. Very clear explanation and easily actionable.

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

Thanks, Nico. Glad you enjoy content

[@mariaferguson1101]

Super helpful explanation thanks

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

Thanks

[@cliffeaton6025]

I am embarrassed to read comments showing that some have understood this because I do not. Please tell me 50% of what? to use the example of 3a/8a 6x5 =30 (to me) + 50% of 30???? =45. so how do we arrive at 80& is my question??

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

30 + 50 = 80. This Neil's Number calculation at the score is accurate against the MET.

[@AJP-gk2oj]

genuinely shocked how much the opening roll effects equity even a badly played 3 1 gets you 6%

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

Yeah, good point

[@ako712]

This is great, thanks Dan. Should it be possible to derive Take Point tables from the MET? Has anyone done this?

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

Sure, here's the calculation. Say score is 5a/5a and you're cubed. Pass = 42% MWC. T/W 3a/5a = 65%. T/L 5a/3a = 35%. Risk 42 - 35 = 7% Gain 65 - 42 = 23% TP = R/(R & G) = 7/30 = 23% Recube vig could take this down, depending on position

[@ako712]

@@BackgammonisBeautiful great, thanks! Presumably T/W is take and win, T/L is take and lose. What is MWC? And what would be the equivalent calculation for double point?

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

@@ako712 MWC is match winning chances. You can view the table on XG. W and L are win and lose. T is take.

[@ako712]

@@BackgammonisBeautiful yes of course, silly me :) I've been reading Walter Trice and think I have deduced a double point calculation; using your 5a/5a example again: No double & win (NDW) = 58% MWC, No double & lose (NDL) = 42%, Double & win (DW) = 65%, Double & lose (DL) = 35% Risk = 42 - 35 (NDL - DL), Gain = 65 - 58 (DW - NDW), TP = R/(R+G) = 7/7+7 = 50%. Again, recube vigs would adjust this. Look right to you?

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

@@ako712 You can view take points under cube information on XG, to see gammon and non-gammon adjusted percentages. Trice's book is excellent on this stuff and worth re-reading. I would also read up on "doubling window" which will shed further light on your question.

[@ericwazner6521]

👍

[@tillort]

I'm sorry, but while I appreciate many or your video, this is not one of them. Yes, you explain how to calculate using Neil's numbers, but you do not at all explain "WHY [the match equity table] is useful" as the description states. Just saying that it is important is not the same as explaining it.

[@BackgammonisBeautiful]

The Match Equity Table is useful in many ways such as calculating take points, working out gammon value, finding doubling points and many other things. I tend to save these for private lessons.

[@tillort]

Thanks @@BackgammonisBeautiful. I guessed I had hoped for answers to WHY and HOW, but appreciate you want to make a few $$$ on it (and guess I have to start saving).