Bayes Theorem and some of the mysteries it has solved

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Fisherman, Full Story: www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/ma...
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Missing Nuclear Bomb: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Pa...
Air France 447: projecteuclid.org/download/pd...
www.bea.aero/uploads/tx_elyex...
Federalist Papers: priceonomics.com/how-statisti...
SS Central America & USS Scorpion (along with several others): www.nps.edu/documents/1034245...
Alan Turing/Enigma: arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04714.pdf
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[@zachstar]

Hope you guys enjoy! Few things I want to mention. 1) There was A LOT of information with regards to each of these stories and I obviously couldn't include it all, so just note none of this paints the full picture in terms of all the analysis that these people did. 2) Because of that first bullet point, I included sources and references to every story in the description for those who want more information. (I got a lot of info from one book which I linked at the top of the references). 3) Yes I know the video is really about how mysteries were solved with Bayes' theorem.

[@StEvUgnIn]

Hi, Mr. Stargensky :)

[@zachstar]

Hi Mr Huguenin

[@anishnehete]

@MajorPrep bro even u have inspired me to do aerospace engineer,but the seats here in India are limited (for good colleges). You have told me the similarities between mechanical and aerospace and other fields and after watching 20-30 of your vids i finally know what to do in life.thanks for showing me a way👌. Hope u be successful in life.

[@realgamer4.12team2]

The French submarine minerve has been found in 2019

[@MrMamanDon]

It's fascinating to realize that our brain does this rechecking thing (updating the probability instead of making it zero) automatically and we recheck for our lost keys.

[@ViratKohli-jj3wj]

Lol XD

[@elistidham8494]

What?

[@U20E0]

@@elistidham8494you have a tendency to re-try things despite them having already failed

[@e.l.2734]

In other areas of life with added layers of biases, we sometimes don't even care to look for the "key" elsewhere at all! To double down on our failures indefinitely for no good reason is meta

[@ManataxImplosion]

Students: why am I even learning this I'm never gonna need it in real situations Teacher:

[@Nic7320]

Students: "Why am I even learning this? I'm never gonna need it in real situations when flipping burgers at the Dairy Queen." Teacher: "Given they've wanted a burger, what is the probability they also want fries?"

[@KruhlSentru]

If teachers actually used real world examples, instead of crazy and stupid word problems that no one will ever care about, then students wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the importance of all of these various mathematical equations.

[@lakshita1408]

@@KruhlSentru exactly

[@Harrissarena]

Never gonna use this in real life but it’s super interesting. If my teacher showed it to my I would be less likely to pay attention tho or be into it. But because it was my choice to watch the video I find it more intriguing. If that makes sense

[@pcread]

The wreckage of the French submarine Minerve has finally been found about 28 miles off the southern coast of France, near the port of Toulon. July 2019

[@toadfrommariokart64]

Pog

[@astronxmically2817]

wow

[@ducminhnguyen7835]

Was found 3 months after this video release. Coincidence?

[@evccrtt1480]

I’m starting to respect statistics instead of hating them Thanks

[@Mike1Lawless]

Statistics shouldn't be used as a tool of manipulation to drive ideology. When used properly lives can be saved. With great power to the number comes great responsibility for probability.

[@luqcrusher]

Mike Law dude what

[@spider-man6932]

​@@Mike1LawlessSpidey math

[@eklim2034]

AI engineers are statisticians too

[@Saki630]

'How to find lost objects with Bayesian Statistics' -- better title.

[@Wanderlust1972]

too advanced for this audience

[@alleyway]

@@Wanderlust1972 more so that he needs views

[@petitio_principii]

Identifying an uncertain author is not a "lost object."

[@praveenb9048]

"How to get as lucky as possible, using science"

[@will2see]

I hate titles starting with 'How'.

[@salamjames3224]

As an EE student this channel is one of the best channels i use to motivate me to study harder

[@praveenb9048]

Has someone done a simulation where you compare the best known algorithm with one based on naive intuition, and see how much the success rate improves from using Bayes etc?

[@robertbilling6266]

It was interesting to see how Bayes theorem applies in a lot of cases. I've used it myself to help clean up distorted electronic signals by suggesting corrections until the CRCs suddenly test true. BTW Turing is closer than you think. He worked with MV Wilkes after the war, and in the 70s I was one of Wilkes last students before he retired.

[@pavelmasterov8053]

Great examples of real life applications of some mathematical statistics mechanics. Very insightful!

[@Harrissarena]

Yes I believe if you’re going into a STEM career then math class would teach you many real life applications because the person working to find the lost things are mathematicians. Me, personally will never be able to use this. Maybe in a vague way but not with big numbers,.. well maybe with google and a calculator I could. Ha. Take that math teacher. Regardless if I’ll ever actually use this theory down the road I still find it very intriguing

[@wangzisworks]

Me, taking AP Calc, as well as planning on taking AP stats next year: “let me watch a bunch of fun math videos for hours on end” *the federalist papers* Me also taking APUSH: no.. please no

[@robertschlesinger1342]

Excellent overview of some special applications of Bayes Theorem and Bayesian methods. Many thanks for the links to relevant sources.

[@nathangraber8447]

That probability tree you just showed is AWESOME!!!! I haven't got to Prob and Stats yet, and have only really messed around with online lectures, but I haven't seen anyone visually organize probability like that before. Thank you for showing me something new!

[@aniketeuler6443]

This channel always changes my perspective towards mathematics and makes my interest in it

[@elizafischer7229]

This is great! I saw your comedy videos before discovering the informational ones and I think it's so impressive that you're so smart and funny

[@N0URii]

you makes math topics so fascinating and fun i relize how important statistics and probability is

[@xyzxyzuvwuvw7633]

you always put out the most fascinating uses of maths

[@prashantpareek5863]

You deserve at least a million subscribers. Keep it up brother.

[@sudhirdeshpande5522]

I LOVE these statistics videos please keep making them ♥

[@bbsonjohn]

From 0:00-2:02, I thought the whole thing was amateur and the video was a clickbait. At 2:03 and on, it just escalated too quickly. lol

[@R41Ryan]

Yeah. Some things just flew over my head when I watched this. I might watch this again in the future just to better understand the math behind this stuff.

[@SAlam-bo3ww]

I love your videos! Please keep on!

[@ryuk3950]

Found this channel yesterday and it is already one of my best.

[@aog3367]

Wow!,understanding bayes theorem like this is soo cool ,wish they did this in school

[@nexninja1479]

Woah I just found your channel and wow am I amazed, looking forward to your uploads..

[@januszgzdacz7093]

Next person who forget about Henryk Zygalski, Jerzy Różycki and Marian Rejewski and their huge contribution to unraweling enigma's code. :'(

[@thevalar2207]

Yep :(

[@skulleeman]

Good balance of educational and entertainment elements

[@ethanboss3348]

That is a really good transition into the sponsor. Props to you

[@spicemasterii6775]

Fantastic video. Thank you

[@trewq398]

Your videos are really addicting.

[@lFreakey]

Just discovered your channel, and to be honest, you have raised my interest in math more than thirteen years of continuous education. Keep the awesome videos up, thanks man! :)

[@jaspaw.5473]

Nice Video! Could u please do a video on Computational Mathematics?

[@TheLastCrankers]

damn, I haven't been this interested in science and math for a long time even though *this* is technically my field, great work!

[@camozot]

This vid was incredibly well done! Bayesian statistics ftw 💪💪

[@AbhayNayak]

These stories are so interesting

[@khazual832]

What formula do you recommend using, if I wanted to solve the mystery of the missing mysteries in this video?

[@Anonimowany1]

Man I loved these probability topics in my school classes. Its really cool to know all the mathematics behind it, seeing how adults hype these mathematics so much later on in life lol.

[@mackhomie6]

I had no idea this existed. Love it.

[@dangiscongrataway2365]

Learning bayesian statistics is on my goal list now, thanks.

[@waqarahmed4200]

quality content 😍

[@gustavgadehebsgaard5727]

Now, I'm gonna think of Bayes theorem everytime that line in non-stop comes up.

[@achintya-7]

After studying Naive Bayes theorem, this video hit home for me

[@LuisOrtiz-dn1jj]

Never clicked that fast!!

[@Brandon-a-writer]

would love to see some vids on the central limit theorem. i spent years on it with one 50 page book i found on amazon. fascinating.

[@moumous87]

When you say “Bayesian” it sounds like “Beijing” 😂😂😂

[@jinjunliu2401]

ew who pronounces Bei"ch"ing like Bayesian

[@ShwetankT]

That B in Beijing is more like P of English

[@crystalayala3336]

I watch your videos whenever I feel defeated by math. Thanks for the awesome content!

[@arnaldosandoval453]

Suddenly, John's search reminded me of: schrödinger's cat

[@vishwajeettripathi3840]

Nice video you got there :)

[@pepperonisalad2304]

Bro, I really enjoyed this video! I like all your videos, but this one really captured my attention. Thank you.

[@justarandommusicchannel1394]

im about to start my college in cse with speacialisation in data science and probability, statistics and linear algebra r crucial parts of the course so thanx for this video

[@diegolazareno8020]

You should talk about Financial Engineering. This field is related to data science, machine learning, stochastic procceses and econometrics.

[@quintiax]

The Minerve has now been found, after around 3 months since you released the video!

[@shaylempert9994]

I hope the statisticians in the hamilton/madison case extracted the word frequency from "training data" and tested it on "testing data" or in other words - papers that their word frequency wasn't part of the model training process. If not, the testing process could be flawed and prone to "overfitting".

[@Scarpster]

Incredible!

[@Krish_krish]

Hi, could you do a video comparing engineering degrees in USA universities compared to UK universities?

[@micahwright6008]

Probably a huge factor would be the fact that what they are looking for is not necessarily remaining in the same place. People can swim away from the high probability places or could actually swim into the high probability area-- this begs a larger question. Should you stay in place when lost (on land or water) or should you move? What can you do to know what decision is best?

[@martindupuy2071]

Lovely channel

[@redredwine1277]

Thanks, amazing what math can do👍🏽

[@va5t680]

Nice video

[@anteconfig5391]

I used to hate probabilities. I still kind of do but after much practice and also seeing possible applications of the maths has given my a greater appreciation for probability theory. I guess now I can actually say I have a love-hate relationship with it.

[@jackbechtel1130]

i learned this in ap statistics and its actually insane to me that you can use this to save people’s lives

[@nemtudom5074]

13:28 Excellent movie! Would highly recommend even if you're not into math

[@alangrant5278]

The best chance of being found is … wearing a personal locator emergency beacon attached to your life jacket so the coastguard gets your gps locating the minute you active it and continuously as you drift. Some Epirbs automatically trigger when in water.

[@anmolpardeshi3138]

just excellent! This is very interesting! The only edit is: you shifted from 2009 Air France to submarines by saying "2 years after this in 1968" ... time travel lol. But kudos to this video!

[@neskhymontoya2096]

Mr. Zach, Coleage, It's hilarious that I've been born and raised in Central America and currently living here and I've never heard of that journey for that treasure. But it's interesting.

[@the8rbuf]

Ship of Gold in the Deep Blue Sea is a great novel about the whole adventure of locating and seizing the treasure from 9000 ft of water around a hundred miles out to sea. It reads like a detective story, a Clive Cussler adventure and a tribute to science, with a hundred and fifty year old survival romance in the flashbacks to the wrecking. I highly recommend it.

[@LaplacianFourier]

I heard Bayes Theorem has helped with a lot of scientific discoveries. Can you do part 2 focusing on that aspect?

[@ChrisContin]

Statistics is the study of effects on our most intuitive outcome. The most logical manner of finding a missing person at sea is to assume they’ve perished (probably) then calculate the likely way to save them: run a rescue, improve grid survivability, or another means! People would realize the helicopter is not the likeliest solution! Use a ship that has sea-penetrating radar, and sees the ocean surface from below: 99% likelihood of being found dead/alive!

[@afounlaid8667]

This is the kind of learning i always wanted, i am always curious about applications of math i studied. Can you seggest me some books that use the same way of interpretation please ??

[@tuxino]

The method you described for finding out who wrote the Federalist Papers is essentially the same as used in many spam filters today.

[@isaamthalhath4359]

One of these mysteries is my physics assignment

[@pomegranatechannel]

Sadly none of these could help with the Malaysia Airlines flight #370 case in 2014 (which was I think the most expensive search and rescue mission).

[@SoulDelSol]

That's cuz that's under water

[@raymondfrye5017]

I have news for you. While you were looking out to the Indian Ocean for #370 the real event was that Ukrainian rebels backed by the CIA shot down a civilian airliner. The resulting news blitz would have embarassed the US. So the CIA created a news diversionary tactic.

[@grassytramtracks]

​@@SoulDelSolAir France 447 was also under water, but with MH370, the area where the plane could have gone down is so huge

[@TheBaldr]

Both the USS Scorpion and K-129 wreck locations were part of secret Navy missions in the 1970s and 1980s. The first and probably most well known is Project Azorian, where the navy tried to raise the wreckage of K-129. The official stance is that they were only able to raise a small portion of the wreckage. Unofficially they got to the site and realized the hull of the sub was already in two pieces, the were able to raise the larger two thirds of the sub although this was never officially confirmed and still remains top secret. The other involved Robert Ballard's famous Titanic expedition... In reality the expedition was funded by the navy to explore the wrecks of the USS Scorpion and USS Thresher, what ever time Ballard had left over he could look for the Titanic, which he found.

[@artallen2860]

SAROPS including the first case does not assume that the person lost overboard remains stationary, but moves with the currents and also by a portion of the wind or its leeway factor. SAROPS also doesn’t work at the grid level, but updates the probabilities for each particle. See my illustration at 1:25 of this video.

[@YouAdrianziom]

It still makes me sad how the work of Polish mathematicians is overlooked in terms of breaking the enigma code

[@00bean00]

Quick! To the Numberphile!

[@xyfurion]

I have a probability final tomorrow and forgot about Baye's theorem. Thanks!

[@particleman5893]

Bayes'*

[@fahimchowdhury4477]

As you said system superimpose a grid over the ocean map and assigned each square a probability. To do that we need to use probability and statistics. But if i want to do that what things do I need to learn? Do I need to have strong knowledge on Bayesian statistics? What are the math behind all these?

[@justyourregularboyscout9613]

Can you do Engineering Physics video?

[@jaybingham3711]

That there existed a significant probability of a human operator who would consistently fail to adhere to the proper use of Enigma I guess could be tied to math. Fortunately, such a weak link was found and exploited. Had all usage adhered to protocol (or something close to ideal usage) things likely would have turned out substantially different.

[@sandeshpokhrel22]

From where do you learn this kind of mathematics used in daily life, from which resources, i would love to learn from the sources you learn from, would you mind sharing some sources?

[@FotisValasiadis]

Statistics Chances And most importantly:Logic Universities are there for you

[@zachstar]

Look in the description! Put the book I got a lot of this information from.

[@spitalhelles3380]

Imagine being a hypochondric mathematician. constantly calculating the probability that you have some rare disease based on your symptoms. yes. I described myself

[@user-hc4wi9ks9r]

Chronic hypochondrism. 100%. Get well! :)

[@spitalhelles3380]

@@user-hc4wi9ks9r thank yoou

[@nirv2796]

How do you calculate the initial probabilities to put into the formula tho

[@TurdFurgeson571]

This is why it's best to stay put. By the time you're thinking about how to rescue yourself, you have been thinking about it for the length of time you've been downed, lost, or injured. Whereas, people who do this for a living have been thinking about how to rescue you for the length of their careers, standing on hundreds of years of geniuses.

[@mayattv4986]

Computational Biology please sir :D

[@bryangohmppac6417]

Sir, do you know what book to study this kind of statistics and probability??

[@quinguyentat227]

Bryan Goh or online course as well

[@duckymomo7935]

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R and BUGS You can access his site too Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman Look up anything on Bayesian statistics

[@bryangohmppac6417]

If from basic to advanced statistics and probabilty??

[@bryangohmppac6417]

If from basic to advanced statistics and probabilty??

[@fabiozaccarini6762]

It would be interesting to know if the search team in Australia searching for the caesium capsule used bayesian statistics

[@SoulDelSol]

So they just figured out where he would be (behind ship) and swept it. That's kinda common sense or am i missing something?

[@natnaeltadu]

RIP for those 33 guys who disliked this video.

[@mrdraw2087]

Wasn't it better to start searching at the beginning of the trail in the first example, given that his survival time would be shorter had he been in the water for a longer period?

[@petitio_principii]

I imagine that one could probably tweak this method of assessing the real author of a text in order to create an accurate forgery as well. To edit the forgery drafts until it gives the acceptable probability.

[@iulian248]

Nowadays we would use a neural network for this. There are too many criteria to immitate to create a perfect forgery, some of those criteria cannot be realized by human minds, but AI's may notice them.

[@GETURHANDSUP916]

Baye's Theorem always stumped me on exams.

[@dt28469]

What about that one guy in WWI that calculated the exact location of enemy fire across the trenches by triangulating the seismic rumble of mortar fire using pen and paper mathematics and an elaborate setup of makeshift seismometers?

[@claudeyaz]

Or how statistics can be interpreted wrong. Like how once hard helmets were introduced in ww1. Brain injuries increased. Because before helmets they would result in death instead of injuries. But those stats could have been used wrong by people to support NOT using helmets

[@avinashdwivedi2015]

Would you do a video on mathematical economics?

[@randomuser5443]

Got to say, math is awesome

[@gusthekidaz9808]

Fun fact, the team that found the scorpion also found the Titanic wreck on the same trip, the algorithm saved them so much time looking for the sub, they used the extra time to find the ship If dreams

[@muhammadneanaa1611]

A work of genius

[@MrMZaccone]

The most important fact about the enigma machine was that it was incapable of encrypting a character as itself. This eliminates a significant number of settings.

[@Nic7320]

There's an editing error @8:52: "Two years after this in 1968"... follows the story of June 1st, 2009 Flight 447, but should follow the story on the 1966 Palomares B-52 crash. This can be fixed by dubbing out the words "Two years after this."

[@avivfrai4858]

almost as smooth as polymatter, damn.

[@dharmanshah1239]

Now as you are making videos on probability and statistics next in line should be data science.

[@zachstar]

That actually is something I've been wanting to get.

[@pravatyadav3623]

Use of stats in data science

[@xamael1989]

Please do a video about computational biology

[@iirazor1086]

That smooth sponser transition lmao