Bitcoin vs the Infinite Money Printer with Luke Gromen

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Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT). In this interview, we discuss the state of the economy, government borrowing and the bond market. We explore the implications of increased US government borrowing and spending on debt and taxes. We also talk about cycles of quantitative easing, a comparison of the economies of Argentina and the US, the impacts of inflation on different groups and investment strategies during a recession.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Debt spiral & bond market
00:13:22 high inflation & unrest in US?
00:23:17 Spending spiral: debt & entitlements
00:37:24 Who will suffer most?
00:50:09 Recession timing, elections, BTC ETF
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#Bitcoin #Finance #Economics
****
“They’re not going to cut the entitlements, they’re going to print the money, and they’re going to print the money with oil at $90…they’re going to print the money with Bitcoin at $35,000… they’re going to print the money.”
- Luke Gromen
- - - -
Luke Gromen has been praised by former clients and colleagues as having a "unique ability to connect the dots". Well, there are lots of dots at the moment, and none of them are static. The economy still seems like it’s in a perilous state with debt levels seemingly out of control. We discussed whether there is a limit to how much money the Treasury can borrow, and how the bond market might be signalling that the Fed needs to restrict borrowing.
We talked about how debt has ballooned as a result of the reliance on quantitative easing (QE) as a means to bring down interest rates. As Luke explained, this tool results in inflation, the need to raise interest rates again, then rinse and repeat. This cycle has been ongoing since 2014 when global central banks stopped growing their holdings of reserves.
The issue is who will buy the US’s burgeoning debt? Many expect the US to follow Japan’s model if the Fed starts buying bonds. However, Luke stated that the US risks mirroring Argentina’s economic situation as US government debt is financed mostly by foreign entities. This significantly hinders the US government's flexibility: it constrains money printing, adds upside risk to bond rates and makes containing a spiralling debt burden much more difficult.
The economic system's evolution over the past 30 years has contributed to growing wealth inequality and unrest. We discussed how these issues are manifesting in the US, suggesting that it is likely to be due to the hollowing out of the middle and working classes by successive governments from both sides of the aisle.
The result is a more comprehensive welfare budget, which increases the tax burden. But, given that GDP growth lags behind inflation and consumer spending is down, increased government spending requires more debt. Money printing for entitlements only adds more fuel to the inflationary fire. It is little surprise that Luke remains bullish on Bitcoin.

[@AnthonyJones-gf6yv]

Can’t get enough of Luke Gromen lately

[@nights5956]

He’s great at explaining stuff

[@GlobalSovereigntySolutions]

Peter I love your interview style - specifically how you really allow the guest to expand on their points with minimal interruptions. Great interview. And great insight from Luke!

[@MartinBaun]

The most underrated KZbin channel, Luke Gromens.

[@edaak6]

Very insightful interview. Luke paints a vivid picture. Stay safe, everyone.

[@cypherpunk08]

Luke Gromen in the house. Respect!!! 🙏

[@sallyip]

I wish I understood all Luke talked about, but thanks for sharing publicly his thoughts! Thanks Peter too !

[@TheRealDerekS]

My work partner and I went to the gas station last week to get some fuel for one of our welding machines and the company fuel card was declined, we were like "uh oh" since work is drying up and theres increasing talk of layoffs within the company... we tried another station, same result. Later we found out it was actually a problem with Mastercard who released a statement that they were in a global "pause" on transactions for some technical reason. Later that day I was making a transfer from my US Bank account to pay a credit card and my US Bank home screen had an alert that all deposits and transactions would be down tempirarily due to "an industry wide technical issue".... now I'm worried.. these are all much bigger issues than my original concern as to whether or not my current employer needs to trim their workforce or not. Wow. Tea leaves are building up here in middle America. It smells like crypto casino shitcoin shenanigans to me, except it's not crypto, it's the primary financial markets we all rely and depend upon.... I'm so grateful we have voices like luke and Peter and Danny. It takes courage to make this happen. You guys are studs

[@James-um8pq]

buy Bitcoin!

[@M3LTUP]

Main difference between Gold ETF and BTC ETF is this. Gold is scarce while BTC is finite(21M). If BR tries to rehypothecate BTC with paper. Microstrategy and millions of others will continue to load up on physical BTC. Which means BR will have to keep paying more to acquire BTC. The PTB can keep running the paper scam w. Gold + Silver because nobody knows exactly how much G/S is available. And nobody stands for delivery. 😅

[@dlukton]

Yeah, it's a lot easier to run a scam on "paper gold" than it will be to run a scam on "paper bitcoin".

[@brettteeter3461]

Great comment

[@howardk831]

Exactly. The everyday use case as Luke refers to is THE huge difference. No one will slice off a bar of Gold to buy dinner. But on an App… Sats will do it plus a tip to the waiter.

[@howardk831]

Exactly. The everyday use case as Luke refers to is THE huge difference. No one will slice off a bar of Gold to buy dinner. But on an App… Sats will do it plus a tip to the waiter.

[@edmor1086]

Nice having someone as clueless as me asking the questions.

[@evegreenification]

Same.

[@Luke-cj7gz]

Wheeeey. Gromen; one of the macro juggernauts

[@EdwardGranville]

Really good conversation! Admire Luke Gromen and the value he brings

[@michaelharings9913]

Luke Gromen makes a lot of sense out the US debt situation! No easy way out.

[@charlottenelson8378]

Engaging in an individual market option is a fair but its performance level can’t generate high dividends. Diversification is the secret to optimal performance, that’s why I have my interest set on options based on projected growth and performance.

[@P__114]

Keep him coming on. Best in the space.

[@eduardotoledano]

Luke, what happens if magically the currency debasement is perfectly offset by deflationary macro trends, like negative population growth, automation, AI, etc?

[@c2thedeeez377]

Disappointed this not in person. Your interviews- in person create an environment that cannot be replicated and genuine. Time is always the issue!!!

[@ASC63Funky]

The FEDSs primary role is to protect the Dollar to maintain the reserve currency status of the world.Its important to understand how the bond market works. to understand this Debt based financial system which is the most selfish corrupt system and should be outlawed as a crime against humanity really. When you understans the system you will see who the real ciminals are.

[@adiintel1]

🎯 🎯 🎯

[@eduardotoledano]

20 mins in, re Argentina: this *is* the Cantillon Effect. White collar workers get regular salary increases to keep up pace w inflation, and disposable income can be invested in harder assets. Brazil in 1990 had 40% inflation a month. Talk about hyper Cantillon effect in action. I lived it. Saddest thing is that the people vote for populists that promise to extend the Cantillon to the lower class. And they don’t realize the solution they want is the cause of their own misery.

[@nicholasscholten4838]

I am a retired union carpenter out of Seattle, one of the highest paying regions in the country, and I can guarantee you that plumbers are not making $350,000 per year. That is crazy. Union Carpenters are making $55.00/per hr, or there abouts, along with pension and healthcare, so it is a good living for sure. Plumbers and electricians are making around $65.00/hr plus retirement and healthcare so the overall package is probably $80 to $85/hr. Just because a plumber is charging $165.00 per hour in a big city doesn't mean they are making $330,000 per year.

[@pianches1]

No plumber’s making anywhere close to $400k

[@CharlieMoneyPH1]

Thumbs up. Learned a lot of stuff on macro and markets.

[@adamacerra1679]

Love the content. Thank you.

[@adiintel1]

Fantastic episode!

[@ryanowen1118]

So would it be better to buy property before inflation or after? Before right?

[@not_crazy_at_all]

This man is legendary👏

[@user-yf1mv5ji3e]

Luke Gromen is good.

[@evegreenification]

Luke Gromen may well be right, but The Great Taking offers another perspective that feels more aligned with "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

[@Handle35667]

What is the Great Taking? A book?

[@ssuwandi3240]

Abs Genius. The price of ALL-in Diversity at all costs!!

[@nights5956]

GREAT ONE PETER!!

[@tierpin]

Plumbers here are $300/hr! Also, fyi the term is gini coefficient in regard to what Luke mentioned about inequality.

[@tcpwiz1]

Is it crazy to think that if the US adopted a Bitcoin consumer economy, that the US could just walk away from the debt and still have a functional economic system from which to rebuild? Start with point of sale. If you can pay with gift cards, rewards points, why not Bitcoin?

[@QDogg]

Mr. Freeze! But you gotta say freeze like Lei Wulong!

[@ryanb4864]

Damnit Pete, why aren't you in Cleveland for this? Not enough traveling effort. Lol

[@garrettberger1483]

Plumbers in Houston have been making about 250-300k a year for the last few years. I know because I employ 3 of them and it’s getting ridiculous

[@josephbeard852]

Is this including what you're paying into their healthcare and benefits? As far as I know union journeyman plumbers make closer to $150,000-$200,000 max on the check.

[@dlukton]

Yeah, a lot of the people who got worthless college degrees would have been better off becoming plumbers. That being said, being a plumber is hard work, especially for people above the age of 50.

[@MotorcycleSalesVideo]

What percentage is commission, and what percentage is wage? I'm an HVAC contractor in CA.

[@randallstephens1680]

Please have Warren Mosler on to discuss this, if you really want to understand how the monetary system works.

[@andreletourneau995]

I live in Michigan not far from Ohio, the only way you’re making that kind of money as a plumber is if you not only have your own company but also are paying employees.

[@dlukton]

Yeah, $350K seems a bit high for the average, run of the mill plumber; but certainly for the guys who manage other plumbers, $350 is probably not difficult to make (for those who are effective managers).

[@hammersaw3135]

Regarding the free trade discussion, western countries loved free trade when they had the upper hand against the rest of the world, now that the rest of the world is much wiser and gaining the upper hand in trade, western countries want protectionism. They never wanted to free trade, they wanted to exploit for their own benefit.

[@M3LTUP]

Most of the raises that Labor have won will be offset by automation and outsourcing. Because a car can only get so expensive before sales stop.

[@dlukton]

Also, a big issue with cars is that of how many foreign-made cars will be allowed into the US; and that's a purely political decision.

[@richardwilson57]

guys...... at the end of every coin bureaux video a breakdown of his current portfolio is disclosed ...... please can you offer this level of transparency? it would really reassure your viewers that you are influenced by your guests rather than possibly just using them to maximise channel growth! ;)

[@beary0418]

Luke is the man

[@michaelcalibri3620]

Luke 55:00 "We really need to control this BTC, we really need it to be held by two people (whales) then we can set-up some un-allocated (not explicitly backed) derivatives off it. It's the un-allocated derivatives, the ability to expand paper claims to infinity and beyond that allow for the controlling of price. Ultimately you're talking about a finite asset, if there's a lot of demand, price has to go up or you create synthetic supply and satisfy demand with synthetic supply which is un-allocated gold in that case (gold etfs). Gold offers to roadmap to someone that would be looking to control the price of BTC."

[@tracyt4327]

We talk à lot about controlling the money. But the other side of that is demand. Could there have been events that would influence the speed of money - like wars, pandemics, etc., that would slow down this cluster of money management? They are truly in panic mode because the pandemic and wars no longer get the affects that once was .

[@OhMyMemories]

I'm a fellow bitcoiner living in Cincinnati

[@jshagenow]

I mean just WOW!!!

[@DoubleG556]

Need to get Peter McKormick Joe Rogan.

[@bitcoinhodlr]

Peter was tore up from the floor up in this interview. Lol

[@HeWoreSkeletons]

Huh

[@ssuwandi3240]

Real estate isn't a cheap maintenance asset. In fact those extra coats were hit the highest during inflation.

[@dlukton]

Yeah, I lived in the Washington DC area for a number of years; and I spent a sh*t ton of money on plumbers for my house.

[@BTCGorilla]

If you want to save an hour of your life, the summary is : Buy Bitcoin

[@_ben_sisko]

At this point, print or default, are 2 very different roads, that both lead to the same exact place 🤦‍♂

[@evegreenification]

41:06 interviewer has mentally checked out while briefly calculating how inconvenient it would be to train as a plumber and immigrate to the US.

[@dwalsh5925]

It’s confusing how there are different iterations of decline coupled with different iterations of “fingers in the dyke”…what is not confusing is that the math does not work out in the future for stability

[@WombatGamesChannel]

no chapters in the video?

[@HeWoreSkeletons]

No they were waiting for something to make real sense..

[@WhatBitcoinDid]

There are chapters though?

[@WombatGamesChannel]

There are now, couldn't find them yesterday@@WhatBitcoinDid

[@johnhenryreber2501]

A "Hey MF'er phone call."

[@hammersaw3135]

Regarding the discussion on the skilled trades, I predict they will make more than doctors, as the push for kids to go to college, and become doctors will cause an oversupply and hopefully pricing for these workers comes way down, and the skilled trades will be paid like doctors. lol

[@caesars7hills892]

There is no way that plumber salary is anywhere near correct.

[@caesars7hills892]

This really discredits what he says. I cannot listen to anymore.

[@evegreenification]

Trades extremely busy and extremely expensive in my area

[@TheDeezelsmoke]

I mean self employed ones certainly can, maybe that’s what he was talking about

[@taaaac]

Wrong. I own a small contracting business. We make more than $500k a year

[@DomiD666]

Surely You just create new SPVs to Off Balance Sheet additional capacity to absorb the Debt Issuance - #WOW #🌐 New Buyer of Global Debt 🎉

[@eduardotoledano]

We need a 10th-grade-level version of this video.

[@user-tw2oe6zi6q]

No you don't. Luke just tries to talk fast and complicated to make you think he knows what he's talking about so you will purchase his services. He doesn't major flaws in his unsupported theory's My Daddy used to say he was a smart man. He used to say if he didn't understand something it was probably three parts bull shit and one part honey to make the bull shit go down easer.

[@jonashayes2508]

Please get Warren Mosley on that would be lit

[@JeromeLoman]

Why they never talks about owning bon and real return after tax. Even if real rate is positive you still loose out in purchasing power after tax.

[@dbjOver9000]

internet says dc plumbers make 35 an hour. same as national average. comes to 60-70k a year. also where do you live i will drive a snowplow for 175 an hour in a heartbeat

[@andreletourneau995]

I work in the trades as an equipment operator , I make 80,000 a year.

[@1LazyBitcoiner]

Don't you dare touch entitlements 🤣

[@jeffreyschmidt1110]

Just dawned on me…Why give a shit as to anything the FEDS do as they lie, intentionally or otherwise to folks?? Attempting to make sense and plan accordingly is a fool’s errand. Don’t waste your time or energy…it’s a nothing burger. Buy and properly store Bitcoin… you’ll be fine.

[@richiedubs1062]

How much gold an entity holds is hard to verify. How much bitcoin they own, should they WANT you to know, is easy as send me 5 satoshis from the wallet you control, now I can see how bitcoin is in that wallet. Nothing to stop me from re-pledging my bitcoin as collateral in multiple transactions, short of a lockup.

[@Boaz357]

If they can print money ENDLESSLY why are we taxed to obivilion? THE MONEY IS BROKEN!

[@ssuwandi3240]

Mmhh because no longer possible.. too bad Luke didn't touch base on the why. The short answer is the US is not Japan which got China as the largest EXPORT destination. The US is the opposite in everything.

[@frankyancy1347]

Retired got stiffed the last 10 years with 0 interest on savings...get real. Forced into high risk stocks...

[@user-tw2oe6zi6q]

As the dollar goes up and foreigners sell treasuries, rates go up and the dollar goes up cycle will only be a calamity for the foreigners who are no longer able to support their currency because they run out of U.S. currency and treasures to support their currency. This is what happen to Mexico and Thailand in the past How does this give the Treasury department a black eye??? If the rates go up in the U.S. this will increase demand for dollars and U.S. treasuries. You ALWAYS leave out IMPORTANT variables in your theories. You are forgetting the fiscal side. A growing economy will enhanced tax revenue which will decrease the need to borrow to pay for deficits and debt so your theory is only one sided and does not take into consideration the fiscal side and a growing economy. A one to three year tax enhancement(increase) with a sunset clause within one to three years on unearned income, incomes over $200,000 and business profits over $1,000,000 will slow down the economy decreasing the current risk of inflation without the need to issue new debt and raise the interest rate. Decrease the deficit and debt.(but this is purely academic the U.S. congress would never pass this. But it is the best solution).

[@DomiD666]

Consumers should not be forced to play Russian roulette when buying products even if they are banned/restricted Even worse deliberately tainted due to legislation & corrupted intent

[@ivory1031]

Correct me if I’m wrong but it sure sounded like this guy thought inflation would hurt bondholders more than it would poor people.

[@nanonxpc9677]

Tldr Stack sats

[@johndtwaldron]

bitcoinnnnnnnnnnnnn ohhhhrrrrrrrrrr

[@HeWoreSkeletons]

Japan runs a surplus.. really?

[@reddelpapa2789]

BR is in the fee business. No price increase, no fees. And Bitcoin is too easy to pull your keys into self custody. This guy. pfft.

[@MrPatrick1414]

Unfortunately BTC is infinitely divisible

[@MikeStillUK]

Why unfortunately?

[@XxChuyoxX]

So cutting a slice of pizza into a million pieces feeds a million people?

[@caseyburridge7522]

Plumbers making $350k? Sorry, I don't buy it.

[@Franiveliuselmago]

This one was boring. Still thumbs up though

[@investeren.io_]

Nice update brother …great content! 😎😎😎😎😎

[@sedonatvcom]

10% wealth tax on the top 10% which controls $100tn of wealth. Only way, and realigns the wealth inequality.

[@CJ-gf3ok]

Awesome, then the government can waste trillions more and give it to whoever donates the most money to politicians. Circular economy for the powerful and well-connected.

[@lastnamefirstname2390]

99%

[@evegreenification]

Then the top 10 percent, who currently are small business owners will be even more effed, and the pols will take their cut and send most to the 400 richest people in the world. This is what has been continuously happening over the course of the last 30 years and here's someone advocating for more of it. Facepalm! They're. Never. Gonna. Help. You. Please let that sink in.

[@dlukton]

A wealth tax (at the federal level) would be unconstitutional, and wouldn't get through Congress. Furthermore, it would lead to a lot of renunciations of US citizenship; Elizabeth Warren proposed a 40% tax on renunciation of citizenship (40% of assets, that is); such a tax would be brazenly and exceedingly unconstitutional.

[@lastnamefirstname2390]

Very insightful interview. Luke paints a vivid picture. Stay safe, everyone.

[@umutat1]

Very insightful interview. Luke paints a vivid picture. Stay safe, everyone.