"Blitzkrieg" to Attrition: 3 Stages of Russian Failure

More than 9 months have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022. Here we look at the different stages of the conflict and particularly how Russia has adapted its approach over time. We cover the 3 phases, 5 fronts, how Russia and Ukraine reacted. We also look at statements by Prof. Neitzel and discuss Russian morale on a different level than before.
Cover design by vonKickass.
Cover Image 1: Vitaly V. Kuzmin: T-80U, 17 August 2013, vitalykuzmin.net/?q=node/510, creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Cover Image 2: Council of ministers of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, President of the Republic of Crimea, took part in the send-off of servicemen from the Republic of Crimea and the city-hero of Sevastopol, called up for military service as part of partial mobilization, 26 September 2022, glava.rk.gov.ru/ru/article/sh..., creativecommons.org/licenses/...
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Wilson, Peter A.; Courtney, William: What if Russia’s Army Fails in Ukraine?, rand.org, 20-06-2022, last accessed: 28-06-2022, www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/wha...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ru...
www.zdf.de/gesellschaft/marku...
www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-...
/ 1505253784204754944
www.voanews.com/a/russia-name... ;
/ 1574978581528080384
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/arc...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_o...
00:00 Intro
00:15 3 Phases
00:40 5 Fronts
01:34 First Phase (Invasion - 24th February to 7th April)
03:27 Escalation / Changes (1st Phase)
04:54 Second Phase: (8th April to 5th September) Artillery War
05:55 Pessimism
07:22 Russia adapts (2nd Phase)
07:57 Third Phase: (6th September - ongoing)
08:44 Russia’s Reaction (3rd Phase)
09:43 Failure does not mean losing
10:37 Neitzel’s Statement
11:23 Russian Morale Revisited
#russiaukrainewar #blitzkrieg #attrition

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

Corrections: It was more than 8 months not 9 months.

Here to remind you that your accent is disgusting and difficult to comprehend

[@zoopdterdoobdter5743]

Did you narrate this while taking a shit!?! 🤣 What's with the echo?

[@Neapoleone-Buonaparte]

Beautifully put video presentation. What I would expect from a German.

[@brettk9316]

@@Neapoleone-Buonaparte 🤣

[@geddycurrent1174]

German? Austrian isn't he?

[@krisfrederick5001]

The first stage to recovery is admitting you have a Blitzkrieg problem.

[@josephfranzen9196]

“We came to believe that a power greater than ourselves could restore us from our insanity of using ancient tactics when engaging a relativity modern opponent.”

[@Garakh]

Hahahah, good one xD

[@phunkracy]

@@josephfranzen9196 the ancient tactics would be fine, if Russia operated on the scale Soviets would've. But Russians thought they'd do well while using like 1/10th the force required.

[@martinsmolik2449]

Blyatskrieg

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

😆

[@TheoEvian]

The Russo-Japanese war was generally seen as a huge Japanese victory both by the Japanese and the Americans. However, the Japanese hoped for more gains than they did get (such as control over the fate of Korea and half of Sakhalin) and they did get furious. But against US who set up the peace treaty. On the other hand Japanese public would be not satisfied by any concession so let's just keep things in perspective.

[@Pangora2]

Plus Japan was glad to get peaced out, as the home front was very weak. There was a reason they had to agree to lesser gains, after all. If they were stronger at home they could have held out for more.

[@adler1964]

@@Channel-sp3fp never heart of that.

[@erinnerungundgegenwart]

I would say the outcome for Japan in the Russo-Japanese war was quite favourable. After all, it reaffirmed dominance in East Asia, gained control of Korea and ultimately annexed Korea in 1910. Overall, the Peace of Portsmouth is considered to have been a humiliation for Russia. Furthermore, the defeat triggered the first Russian revolution of 1905.

[@ragequitify]

Thank you. I don’t know where he is getting the idea that Russia succeeded against Japan in that war

[@ab-oj9wv]

Japan got a seat a the big boys table thanks to this conflict. Quite significant.

[@ReichLife]

You would say from your perspective. From Japanese one, what they gained seemed barely worth losing tens of thousands of men. Hibiya incendiary incident is one example of riots in Japan which took place after war with Russia ended. By the end of the day, Japanese had to accept peace mediated by USA, as they themselves were spent as well.

[@erinnerungundgegenwart]

@@ab-oj9wv They already kind of had that going into the boxer rebellion, but the war of 1904/05 confirmed it

[@erinnerungundgegenwart]

@@ReichLife Taking control of Korea was a key imperative of Japanese foreign policy since at least 1870. For some factions within Japan, this went back to the 1500's, the Imjin war didn't start itself after all.

[@robertboemke9614]

Regarding the Russo-Finnish war, professor Herbert said to me "The Fins won that war." At first, I said: "What?!" But then it dawned on me. They had managed to survive as a state. That counts as a win.

[@DylanJo123]

Considering what the Poles went through when their soverignty collapsed, id have to agree

[@puraLusa]

Also, they didn't realize that russia was negociating because it had lost. If the fins had enough info (back than things were so different) they wouldn't probably have let go of any inch.

[@ReichLife]

@@puraLusa Except it's a myth. Finns were running low on weapons, munitions, experienced men. USSR meanwhile had steady offensive going and reached Viipuri, way behind Finnish defensive line. While first month was an utter Soviet humilitation, February was a clear Soviet victory.

[@puraLusa]

@@ReichLife temporary, russia wouldn't negociate for such litle gain. They were probably also in similar situation. Steadily until the point they found a necessity of negociating. A lot of soviet union has been hidden as russian federation doesn't want average russians to know about. My aunt is russian, she knows more about soviet union since she found herself in a library of my country, pretty far away from russia, her reaction was like she had been lied to all her life. In conclusion, and taking account when, in the whole russian history, they negociated one can infer they weren't able to keep said stream of men and material. Just saying 🤷‍♀️

[@ReichLife]

@@puraLusa Such little gain was already way more than Soviets demanded in pre-war negotations and included Finland second largest city. If they wanted they could continue all the way to Helsinki or Turku, Finnish Army was exhausted while Swedes officially killed any chance of theirs' bigger support. Further war while more than likely still costly for Soviets, would be so deadly for Finns that it would be disastrous for Finland.

[@History_Buff]

I would like to counter your point on Japan's weak economy and inability to fight a prolonged war in 1905. While researching for a paper I came across a book "The Russo-Japanese War in Global Perspective, World War Zero Vol.1" where in one section they delve into the finances behind the war and how much money the UK, Germany, France, and the US were throwing into the war (mostly on the side of Japan). During the time, Japan's silk export started to have a small boom due to global fashion trend of long silk gowns/dresses becoming popular, especially in the US. According to the sources, during the peace talks Japan still had enough cash on hand to fun the war for another (either 6-18 months, I forget which it has been a few years) with potential for additional loans, while Russia had expended nearly all gold reserves and foreign lines of credit. Japan had the ability to walk away from table at any point (and supposedly almost did) to continue to fight for better footing. To say that Russia was losing and not defeated in the Russo-Japanese War is a bit of a stretch. Both the Pacific and Baltic fleets were just short of annihilated, Japan had a very strong footing in Korea and even though an advance into Russian territory was almost impossible, it was equally unlikely that the Russians could push them into such a position to force them to surrender or sue for peace. Russia's attention was also split between maintaining their influence in China, maintaining peace at home (there were some very large riots in Europe that tied down many troops and even caused some troops to be removed from the Korean front), and the threats of Germany and Austria-Hungry. Russia did not have the time or the resources to keep the war going any longer. Russia still had to give up territory and resources as a result of Treaty of Portsmouth. Speculatively, a continuation of the war may of sped up the process leading to the Revolution. Although your points on the Winter War and the early years of WWII are accurate, I would also argue that warfare has developed to a degree that, yes, overwhelming numbers can still overcome technological advantages and superior tactics through attrition, however, the number of casualties would be so large (especially against a determined foe) that there would be too much war weariness on the part of the attacking country and population to allow the war to continue and the current regime to maintain power.

[@TheCat48488]

However we need to be careful of that type of thinking too Even if nobody rules alone, holding those that actually matters allows you to 'neglect' others

[@andrewhicks982]

Ahh this is what I like to see - a long, well thought rebuttal with actual citations and facts rather than the author of the video stating some piece of history he thought he understood.

[@tsp312]

"the number of casualties would be so large (especially against a determined foe) that there would be too much war weariness on the part of the attacking country and population to allow the war to continue and the current regime to maintain power." Conditions regarding the technology and mass casualties are even more grim regarding WWI yet it took years of war, prior instability, and German espionage to reduce Russia to civil war; France, UK, Italy, Germany all held on to power and continued despite constantly throwing bodies into the grinder and I see no reason why things would be so different today.

[@Ryan-fl2ob]

To add to this: Ukraine has wide civilian support for the war and seems to be able to call on almost all of its civilian population of fighting age, which would, if the Russian civilian reaction to the conscription call is any indication, give it a leg up on Russia in terms of manpower over a long term engagement . Coupled with how materials on both sides are being replaced, with Ukraine slowly transferring over to more and more modern systems and Russia seemingly diving deeper into their stocks of Cold War era equipment, it looks like a war of attrition favours Ukraine.

[@tsp312]

@@Ryan-fl2ob You are making assumptions about the population's willingness but we don't know, it's literally illegal now in Ukraine to *not* support the war effort in Ukraine. The reaction in Russia has been largely calm, people had been expecting and even demanding it once it became clear things boiled down to a stalemate. Plus Ukraine has to pull from completely untrained civilians at this point, they've already mobilised the reservists. Any further conscription without adequate training time prior to deployment would result in drastic causalities when we are already seeing extreme losses from their offensives. Ukraine isn't transferring over to more modern systems, the Western powers are not sending nearly enough to replace their Cold War stores and what it sent is generally sent either in very poor condition, without proper training on how to use it, and in some cases even inferior to what the Ukrainians are already using (in the case of AA systems) Unless NATO decides to escalate support significantly their aid is not even remotely close to enough to replace their losses in equipment.

[@TheTortor79]

the russian army is never as weak as you think, but the russian army is never as strong as you think.

[@fullm3taljacket]

Tell that to the wermacht

[@SmotritelMayaka29]

Quote: Conquerors about Russia⁠⁠ "Russia is a dwarf, I will bring her to her knees." Charles 12th, 18th century. Sweden lost its status as a great power forever. "I will conquer backward Russia." Friedrich, mid 18th century. In 1759 the Russian army entered Berlin. "Russia is a colossus with feet of clay." Napoleon, 19th century. In 1814 the Russian army took Paris. "I will conquer the USSR by the end of the year." Hitler, 20th century. In 1945, he committed suicide when the Soviet army entered Berlin. Who is next?...

[@artruisjoew5473]

The Russian army is not even winning a war against a country that basically doesn’t have an Air Force or a navy. We should send the Ukrainians some F16s and start sending air volunteers. I’m sure we have plenty of pilots who wanna get in some kerfuffle with Russia. And the F16 is the most common NATO platform.

[@artruisjoew5473]

@@SmotritelMayaka29 “Russia? Ayyy lmao” - the mongols, probably.

[@ReichLife]

@@artruisjoew5473 Muscovites who basically formed Russia beaten Mongols out of Eastern Europe. Mongols conquered Kievan Rus, which is more related to Ukraine.

[@Mrarmageddon8]

Take an upvote for the bad season 8 reference.

[@hothoploink1509]

Always funny how everyone sh**s on season 8. I wonder if the jokes will be partially replaced by jokes about Rings of Power

[@ReichLife]

@@hothoploink1509 Nah, Rings of Power was mocked/disliked from it's first trailer. GoT in contrast was beloved for it's first half for nearly all good reasons. Reason why season 8 is so infamous it's that is an finale season to previously such a great show.

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

Rings of Power is so bad, it is not even worth joking about.

[@hothoploink1509]

​@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized Always good to know you're not alone in utterly hating that pile of garbage :D

[@baronknownot780]

@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized 😮I loved it. Can you do a video explaining why it was as bad as you think?

[@xekul]

been waiting for you to come out with a vid like this - thanks!

[@maxkennedy8075]

Note: Sieverodonesk is a squirrel word for Germans 😂 Edit: What seems to be the issue for these sorts of words is the Sch- sound is very common in German and it seems only natural for the German mind to go to make that sound when something similar crops up. Squirrel trips them because they want to make the sch- sound but sch-quirrel is a train wreck of mouth movements

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

More like a squirrel 🐿 on meth running in crazy circles 😜

[@PerfectDeath4]

@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized I remember people nicknaming it "several donuts"

[@alaeriia01]

As someone who pronounces it "skwurl", I'm puzzled how "shkwurl" could be a train wreck.

[@peka2478]

@@alaeriia01 and then you find out that 🐿️, in mhv's native language, is pronounced oachkatzl. Good luck with that one! 😆 (which is an up- or downgrade, depending on where you come from, from "Eichkätzchen", the original German word)

[@peka2478]

I don't even understand where the problem with that city's name can be? Се-ве-ро-до-нецк, se ve ro do netzk, piece of cake? 😉

[@Syndr1]

Hi, great job on your videos.

[@Winters004]

Except the main caveats for those other wars was that in the Winter War, the Finns had practically no foreign support so they had no hopes of winning a war of attrition. In World War II, Russia would not have bounced back the way it did without massive material support from the Allies in the form of Lend Lease. In the current war, it's Ukraine that's receiving massive foreign support from the West while Russia is forced to scrounge for weapons and ammo from Iran and North Korea, of all places. Modern day Russia is just a pale shadow of its Soviet predecessor and nothing demonstrates that more than their abysmal performance in Ukraine, which isn't even considered anywhere close to a top tier military power.

[@dragonstormdipro1013]

Finland received material support ranging from Germany, Italy, Britain, US and multiple other countries. There was also foreign volunteers from around the world. One notable example was Christopher Lee. On the other hand, Russia just killed it’s most capable generals and destroyed it’s officer corps just a year prior.

[@Winters004]

@@dragonstormdipro1013 While Finland did receive some material support, the vast majority was just token shows of solidarity. At most, Finland only got about 9000 volunteers, of which 8000 were from Sweden. Small arms and some field guns, but no heavy equipment they'd actually need to sustain a long war. France and Britain were going to send planes, but they arrived too late to participate in the war.

[@anceldesingano8687]

Both side have problems with ammunition and equipment mostly from Ukraine than the Russians since Ukrainians are heavily dependent on western support which is dwindling as shown with there 275 million dollar aid program that happen late October

[@cvr527]

@@dragonstormdipro1013 There was no time for Finland to receive that support. Effectuvely the only support they received was unofficially from Sweden and a little bit from Germany. The weapons, equipment and supplies they captured from the Soviets was far more important.

[@cvr527]

@@dragonstormdipro1013 Also, the very fact that mentioned Christopher Lee shows that you know absolutely nothing about the Winter War. Lee had ZERO impact!

[@zulubeatz1]

When the whole success of the operation is based on the assumption that your enemy will not fight back.

[@astdvrs1413]

When the whole objective of the operation is misunderstood by you, you would think that you've won, and your enemy has lost. We'll, sometimes, it's good to keep dreaming on good things, that waking up seeing the different reality.

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

Yeah! When u always think that u just have to kick the door and the whole rotten edifice will fall down. But u r mistaken about which one is the rotten edifice.

[@whocares5432]

​@@astdvrs1413 well what's the objective of the operation?

[@looinrims]

This war is MHV’s worst nightmare A whole bunch of Slavic names to pronounce

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

As if English wasn’t bad enough Plymouth…

[@ironwolfF1]

I noted his restraint at (nearly) not saying Kharkov...for which he could easily be forgiven.

[@caniconcananas7687]

@@ironwolfF1 If you look at German maps of the Soviet Union and, before, the Szarist Russia, it's not Kharkiv or Kharkov, but Charkow. The problem is that most of current day journalists have not taken a single look to maps in their whole lives.

[@looinrims]

@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized Plymouth?

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@caniconcananas7687 Don’t forget there are also Polish names for many places, plus some names made up by the Habsburgs.

[@whatisahandle_69]

Thanks for posting your sources.

[@rcmrcm3370]

I think this is going to be fun coming back here in about another month.

[@jamese8508]

Thank you for a great summary. I needed this.

[@Arturino_Burachelini]

Before russians knocked down the electrical grid, they knocked out the petroleum infrastructure and it's weird it got forgotten. From April to July there was a fuel shortage and I still remember waiting in the car queue to the fuel station and writing a bachelor's thesis there not to waste my time

[@vivaprez]

excellent video👍🏽

[@hulagu3068]

Very nice Analysis.

[@Predator20357]

I’m not going to sing rarely any tunes until the war is over and the dust has settled, until then, I’ll just continue watching videos about it.

[@pascoett]

Having a history degree myself I think that every war is different from another. It’s typical for humans to find „similarities“, but those are a very subjective matter. I have heard a ton of predictions from both sides and none of those came true. It’s like economic studies: they look very convincing but are total bogus and hardly ever were great at predictions. Historians are the worst at predictions! It’s usually poets and novelists who make better forecasts.

[@ggtt2547]

Damn that was a well written comment.

[@caniconcananas7687]

@@ggtt2547 And a scholar way to explain why we should avoid to compare pears not with apples but with diplodocuses. Because Winter War and the two first years of World War 2 are not comparable. The German army in 1941 had... some more? capabilities than Finland in 1939. And, as every war has two sides, you cannot compare wars only by one of the sides (even being that the same country). Else, we could go on comparing the US Army landing at Normandy and the US invasion of Grenada. 😅

[@noelle3551]

As a historian or someone with a history degree should be able to see similarities between this conflict created by putin and Hitler aggression against countries such as Czechoslavkia, Poland and Russia! History is usually written by the Victor's regardless if it is by historians, poets and novelists alike and most likely years after the fact when first hand information can be distorted!! As for similarities I first bring up the Sudetenland, a German speaking region was the reason used to capture it and the speech used by Hitler was surprisingly similar used by putin when justifying invading Ukraine in 2014. A different sort of rhetoric was used this year but bore similarities to justify the special operation! Hitler had intended to destroy what he saw was Stalin's Jewish Bolshevist regime and bring russia into the fold as part of the nazi state. This is in someways similar to putin's version of events regarding a Jewish leaders nazi regime to heal who were persecuting the Russians ( sudetenland rhetoric). I could on but these two will do for starters!! ps the term 'Lebensraum' is also at the heart of Putin's plan which also can be seen in 1931/32 after the Holodomor created by stalin and most recently Crimea!!

[@freetolook3727]

If you have a history degree, then you'll know that history repeats itself and therefore conflict outcomes become easy to predict.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@noelle3551 The Kremlin’s ongoing rhetoric to justify the Special Military Operation sounds like it was cribbed from Mein Kampf.

[@johnronald6115]

Brilliant closing statement

[@ScienceChap]

Season 8 reference. Amazing!

[@songwright]

"Let's hope it is not as awful as Seaons 8." Sick burn on Game of Thrones! Nice.

[@Mixcoatl]

I'm not sure using historic examples is particularly helpful here. Russia today is no Soviet Union, nor is it in anyway comparable to the Russian Empire. Not only is modern day Russia much weaker than the Soviet Union, but Ukraine is also much stronger than Finland.

[@nutyyyy]

And not only that but in such examples Russia was typically allied with Britain, The US and European powers against a central power such as France or Germany. In this situation most of the European continent and the global superpower are directly opposing them and Russia has very limited support from its own allies. Plus the Soviet Union had a much larger population and resources than modern Russia despite its problems.

[@martinsmolik2449]

Well, the point is that a country can still win even if they do badly on the battlefield. Yes, I think Ukraine will win and restore its borders sometime in 2023 or even 2024, but however unlikely it is still possible that they will have to give some concessions to Russia. I would hate for that to happen, so I hope the West supports them even better then they have done so far.

[@caniconcananas7687]

@@nutyyyy That was so only from 1941. Because in 1939, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland, Stalin and Hitler were still (trjmmm) "allies". And Britain and France planned to invade Norway, Sweden and Denmark to assist Finland against the Soviet Union. (They were kinda cocky, yep). But then the Finnish finished the war, the Allies screwed up at Norway and the whole plan was forgotten because the French and British planners didn't even consider that Germany was not only a word on the maps, but also a lot of people making their own plans.

[@erice.9514]

@@nutyyyy exactly, Russia could refill tank and plane losses with lend and lease goods. Right now they are throwing more and more equipment into this, while they are in no way to replace it that quickly.

[@user-yc3wd8iq9t]

@@martinsmolik2449 With support for ukries dwindling (even the US cannot sustain the rate of ammo expenditure, and european economies are lucky to survive the coming winter, let alone provide anything of military use), and Russian production and training ramping up - i clearly do not see what your expectations are based on.

Nice Video

[@SithStayer97]

10:36 always the polish-soviet war is forgotten

[@michaeldunne338]

There is a good Osprey Publishing booklet on that conflict though: "Warsaw 1920: The War for the Eastern Borderlands" by Steven J. Zaloga (Author), Steve Noon (Illustrator) - came out two years ago.

[@angmori172]

The big irony being that the Russians were the ones who had the advantage in attrition when German blitzkrieg ran out of steam.

[@deriznohappehquite]

In large part because Britain and the US maintained a total blockade of Europe.

[@xchazz86]

Basically Blitzkreig only works if the defenders dont react or surrender. The success of Ukrainian disruption operations on Russian logistics leading to the eventual counter offensive is clear evidence of this. When the defender has the means and will to continue fight then the war is already lost.

[@revanofkorriban1505]

No shit. No way of war wins if the defenders don't surrender. Bewegungskrieg is not more or less vulnerable to determined resistance.

[@slartybartfarst55]

"Let's hope it's not as bad as season 8" Classic!

[@reubensandwich9249]

I think the Artillery phase should be split in half to Artillery Phase and GMLRS phase. The latter happened right after your Euphoria Gone slide and turned that right around.

[@AlexanderHL1919]

The GoT dig at the end, brilliant!

[@maxscholts8649]

Your pronunciation of Sievierodonetsk is hilarious :D

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

I looked at it, and went: "well, the first try will be the best anyway".

[@katamarankatamaranovich9986]

@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized now you know how everyone else feels trying to pronounce some of the longer German words.

[@roberthopwood3758]

This is the comment I was looking for.

[@caniconcananas7687]

Think that the Ukrainians have shortened the name of Dnepropetrovsk to Dnipro. Some say that it's because of the Russians, policy and blablablah. It's because it's too long and full of p. 🤪

[@TheLoyalOfficer]

"Winter is coming... Let's hope it's not as awful as Season 8." HILARIOUS!

[@igorscot4971]

For Napoleon, the Peninsular Wars truly represented a “bleeding ulcer” that could not be stinted, draining his empire of men, money, materiel, and morale. Ukraine, may be, another one for Putin!

[@TheFirebird123456]

Ultimately I think that is what the eu and the US are secretly going for. While he is stuck in ukraine he can't credibly threaten the Baltic and nato. Originally the hope was that it would afghastan 2.0 for the Russians, ie armed insurgency. But then the Ukrainians proved they could defend their country which makes the situation even better for NATO. Plus it makes an amazing testing ground for western weapons against soviet weapons and strategies.

[@Pangora2]

Though then you'd have to point out where Russia's...Russia is. There are no other wars to be had, and even when Napoleon lost in Russia he still fought across Europe and won a few battles.

[@igorscot4971]

@@Pangora2 With the Chechens fighting on both sides in the Ukraine war, can another Chechen rebellion be ruled out? Even so, the Ukraine war may still be decide by Russia's economics, as its income from oil and gas continues to fall.

[@roryoneill9444]

@@igorscot4971 Are there other Oblasts in Russia likely to rebel? Chechia is small and resource poor, so there will not be a big push. What are the Russians in Moldova doing? I forgot about Kaliningrad.... what is happening there? all these factors have to be accounted.

[@Pangora2]

@@igorscot4971 when you zoom the chart out for gas prices, it doesn't look so dire for Russia. People keep comparing the drop in price to the peak. Also I think it is more likely NATO tries to flip Belarus again, as it could be more easily supplied via Poland.

[@scottt5521]

The poor artillery accuracy in recent days probably speaks to their barrels being shot out in the intense period of shelling in the war which results in lost range due to blow by and lost accuracy due to a loose fit.

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

Recent days? Where did u get that? A week or so ago I saw 6 Ukrainian armored vehicle was destroyed by Russ artillery. How does inaccurate artillery hit 6 moving targets like that?

[@scottt5521]

​@@aniksamiurrahman6365some Ukrainian units have social media channels that I monitor and they all have little fear of the inaccurate current Russian artillery and compare it to how bad is was to endure back in April and May. Not to say that Russian artillery is 100% inaccurate but it is generally not as effective now as it was.​

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

@@scottt5521 Don't draw conclusion from just watching what one side says. We don't kno the exact situation on the ground. But what we can confirm for sure is that - Ukraine lost the momntum they gained in September. The front is basically stalemate from the 2nd week of October. We also know that HIMERS has lost a lot of their effectiveness, mostly cos how Russians adopted. We barely see large ammo depot on fire like we saw in July. On these light, such conclusion sounds superfluous, even desperate. May be Russians aren't using Artillery much anymore. Maybe they are into loiterning drones more. IDK, and it doesn't matter. But I saw it with both side - their boastfull claims about the opposite side is always misleading.

[@michaeldunne338]

@@aniksamiurrahman6365 The Russians just left Kherson and abandoned its west bank lodgment on the Dnieper. Seems the HIMARS had something to do with that...

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

@@michaeldunne338 HIMARS is doing its damage on Antonovosky bridge since it arrived in Ukraine. Say at the same time as it blew up all those depots. What I'm saying is that it almost maxed out in potentiality.

[@zenster1097]

Exactly correct. So many do not understand this.

[@christophermills9289]

The Russian woman in the 19th and early 20th Centuries had 7.5 children. Today's Russian woman only has 1.5 children. Can that take casualties like they used to?

[@alexandershorse9021]

Brilliant as usual, thanks! 😊

[@vladimpaler3498]

I guarantee the leaders will not care how awful the war is in winter, or any other season. I wish it was all over so more people will not die for nothing.

[@emilchan5379]

Let's hope Putin swallows his pride and leaves Ukraine, then the war will end.

[@embalm209]

Interesting. But as of now, what will eventually go on there, I guess we will all have to wait and see. I hope this coming winter won't be too bad for you where you are.

[@akronym4439]

I want to point out how good this presentation is Which platforms/apps are you using?

[@WukongTheMonkeyKing]

The blyatskrieg was such a stunning start to the war, both in terms of it happening at all, and in how the assault on Kyiv failed.

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

The most stunning thing is, why on earth Russia attacked with such numerically inferior force if they actually wanted to occupy Kiev.

[@WukongTheMonkeyKing]

@@aniksamiurrahman6365 A lot of unconfirmed information pointed at an expectation that Zelenskyy would flee the country, and Kyiv would surrender. There apparently were a lot of people feeding bad intel to Putin, as bad news could jeopardize their job or their life.

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

@@WukongTheMonkeyKing May be there's MI5 counterintelligence. But there's chance that, that expectation isn't a total bust. Zelensky agreed to negotiate mutliple times. But each time we saw some NATO head of state fly to kiev and probably remind Zelensky that Ruussian guns aren't the only guns pointing at him.

[@17cmmittlererminenwerfer81]

This is all vaguely unreal or like deja vu - I'm watching a briefing by a German speaker about the Eastern Front, highlighting Russian defeats in Kharkiv (the Deutsche Wochenschau called it Kharkov), but otherwise it's like nothing has changed 80 years later, just similar stories about the same old places. Bizarre.

[@Anton_Frey]

And German vehicles with swastika (printed up by #NoNaziInUkrain) again fighting against Russian army, again defeting them. However, we all remember how the last operation of "united civilized world" against Russia ended. This time, however, seems like out flag will be installed in Washington, not in Berlin>

[@patrickmartin5958]

season 8 - very good. As long as the aggressor is able and willing to pay the ongoing cost it will continue.

[@velikiradojica]

Where did Mikolaiv come from? The city name is Nikolaev, named after St. Nicholas...

[@skgfuryf4569]

Because local variant of the name is Mykola

[@utubeo4r]

I always love your channel. Give us factual and no Propaganda ......

[@MikaelKKarlsson]

Season 8, when Paulus charged his last remaining panzers into the dead of night outside Stalingrad.

[@NathanWood23]

The season 8 got me. Good work.

[@f-man3274]

The amount of Russians who has fled the country is estimated from 350 to 500k. First wave of partial mobilisation was 300k and ended while 281k of people were enlisted. As a Russian who has fled for Kazakhstan, I can confirm that the amount of Russian migrants here is pretty high, though has lowered bc Kazakhstan is a transitional country for many.

[@milosmevzelj5205]

Winter is coming and with it so much new horrors of war.

[@willallen7757]

not really, the bodies wont stink.

[@naamadossantossilva4736]

Nah,it will mostly be the same old ones.

[@richardcory5024]

The major flaw in this analysis is the avoidance of any discussion of the economic sanctions war being waged on Russia by most of the rest of the world, the crippling of the Russian economy, nor even the grave effects of partial mobilisation on the Russian economy. It cannot be separated out from the military conflict. This is likely to prove crucial. Russia cannot sustain a long war, however much it would like to.

[@terryg4550]

How do you know, are you just guessing. How many experts thought the Russian economy would fail after all the sanctions, yet it seems to be holding up better than the UK and Europe.

[@richardcory5024]

@@terryg4550 That is just plain nonsense. No one said that the Russian economy would fold overnight but come back to me in 12 months and I challenge you to repeat that absurdity.

[@terryg4550]

@@richardcory5024 Please reread my comment again I never mentioned the Russian economy would fold overnight, Why did you find the need to create a strawman to knock down. What I said is factually correct. Do you remember President Biden's comment about turning the Ruble into rubble, even his experts got it wrong. I will take you up on your offer and we can compare the UK to the Russian economy in 12 months time and see how they both fared.

[@richardcory5024]

@@terryg4550 OK, so tell me how the loss of exported oil and gas to the EU (and with the imposition of secondary sanctions) and around the world is going to be made up. That is 30% of GDP. Tell me how the UK is going to lose 30% of GDP in the next 12 months. And don't say "to India and China." Please. If you do I will then know you have little idea what you are talking about. Tell me how the Russian economy is going to cope with the brain drain it has experienced and how it is going to cope with the loss of 300,000 (and counting) workers, and 300,000 potential fathers etc.

[@terryg4550]

@@richardcory5024 Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said the government was now forecasting a 2.9% contraction in Russia's GDP for 2022. For 2023 the Russian central bank predicts a contraction of between 1% to 4%. Is this Russian propaganda, we will see. The loss of oil and gas to Europe is not total as some EU countries are still importing. India and China have both increased their supply, yes at a discount and not enough to replace the loss of Europe but still it cushions the loss. On top of that the Russians have a $40 billion deal with Iranl to build oil and gas infrastructure to India. Russia has a deal to build new pipes into China and turn Turkey into a energy hub. The other thing that will work for Russia in the long term is some of the sanctions, if Russians cannot spend their money on a range of Western goods then it makes it easier for local producers to sell their goods, basically more money stays and circulates within Russia, with the benefit of needing less foreign exchange. Russians don't seem to be rioting in the streets about the loss of Western goods. With the brain drain, how bad is it really, this is not Russia of the 1990s 300,000 reservest called up is only 0.2% of the population. All of these will be paid and the majority of that money will stay and circulate within Russia. Russia has all the minerals, food and cheap energy it requires, it is still an industrialized country making it closer than most to being self sufficient. Let's look at the UK, high house prices with subsequent high mortgages and interest rates going up. High energy cost and excessive inflation. On top of that tens of thousands of illigal migrants putting a strain on the system. It is sending billion of pounds to Ukraine, where is this money coming from. 12 months time will make an interesting comparison.

[@EK-gr9gd]

Regarding artillery tactics or counter artillery tactics. Western tactics nerver intended to match Soviet or Russian firepower, but to minimaze it. Just compare the systems:F-4E/G, F-111, TORNADO, later F-15E vs. a small number of Su-24. The same with ground based systems: M270 and SPHs M109 for the most part, plus some towed pieces vs. a wide variety of rocket and tube artillery.

[@Ugly_German_Truths]

Eight months have passed between 27 02 2022 to 27 10 2022.

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

Indeed 😂 😆

[@OtherWorldExplorers]

What do you think the impact of near transparent optics of this war is having on russia. Back in the forties the Kremlin could lie about losses both material personnel and territory. Now today with the Advent of social media there's practically up to the minute updates. Perhaps you should look at them around of the entire Soviet Union and see which parts are suffering the most. I think that's going to have the biggest impact on this war.

[@---ii8hl]

doesnt matter to the average russian, only news source is official russian ones. there are no other left.

[@fullm3taljacket]

Lol, only the u.s. and Europe are on the side of Ukraine. You do know there is more to the world than the west, yes?

[@hankjones3527]

@@fullm3taljacket Yes most countries are trying to stay out of it, that's true. But of the countries getting pro-actively involved there is a clear imbalance. On one side you have the US and Europe supporting Ukraine, on the other side you have North Korea and Iran supporting Russia Who would you rather come to your aid: US and Europe or North Korea and Iran?

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@hankjones3527 firstly, that's a moralistic argument. Secondly it's a false argument. The West instigated the situation, I'm happy to see them be made fools of. Russia's economy is strong, it's currency is strong, the rest of the world is forming new economic systems to work better together (headlined by Russia). The world has moved on from the west.

[@ggtt2547]

@@hankjones3527 Well said. Also in the UN votes many more that EU+US voted in favor of Ukraine. That dude is double wrong.

[@nirfz]

So what's your take on the russians buying artillery ammo from north korea and drones from iran. As an uninformed observer, to me it looks like russia is handicapped enough by the sanctions that they can't keep up with shell production to what they are using up. (and my guess would be that north korea, while willing to sell, will not depleat their own storages completely for russia. they themselves are under embargoes and thus who knows how long it would take them to restock, so they won't risk that in my view) And the drones form iran: looks like russia is also handicapped in building their own drones (or enough of them to keep up with demand), so they have to rely on the sources that will sell them anything. Iran supposedly also only sells them their lower grade drones and not the modern stuff they have as they (like NK) do not want to get caught with their pants down. (being paranoid does not mean that nobody is following you ;-) ) So could this be a sign that maybe russia isn't going to be able to keep it up as long as people think they can?

[@chriskortan1530]

I suspect those are more political moves than actual need. While they are using huge amount of artillery, they also have huge stocks. They may be "buying a friend" with North Korea and at the same time keeping supply stable just in case. The same with Iran. Supposedly the Iranian drones are cheaper than they can make themselves. It may be freeing up resources for other weapons such as precision missiles. Plus the friends can buy whatever Russia has to sell, maybe nuclear stuff.

[@fullm3taljacket]

They are cheap and available?

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@chriskortan1530 good take. Buy your friend's old crap for cheap

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@fullm3taljacket Seems those Iranian drones are pretty effective. Cheaper than the missiles needed to shoot them down.

[@andrerothweiler9191]

@@chriskortan1530 I dont think they have unlimited Stocks of artillery ammo. They have already problems and slowly running Out. On the Front UA soldiers damit that it got much easier, they cannot shoot Back as they did earlier in the war

[@Kopyrda]

I actually hope that winter WILL be like the season eight - a lot of talking about it for seven seasons, and then actual winter lasting for few episodes :)

[@flavius5722]

The comparison with the 20 century wars is unprofessional! Of course we do not expect to see a end of the war at least until the half of 2023 but it's wrong to compare today war with 1941-42. Back then Moscow have major advances :the support of the population (because their lifes was threaten by a invasion ),a more strong industry,a much bigger territory, population, resources;and the support of UK ,Commonwealth,USA. In the Japanese war ,russians were invade and they lost on their own territory and in Korea ,the US have as great implication in the ceasfire In Finish war ,Findland was isolated political and internationally Neither of this facts is applying for today war. We not must forgot the past but we must adapt to the present situation

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

> The comparison with the 20 century wars is unprofessional! It was not a comparison, I mentioned that in previous war, Russia and the Soviet Union sustained many losses and defeats, while in the end not losing. A comparison looks like this: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z6m3gmClrtRgfZY

[@flavius5722]

@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized Ok but still it's a error in this logic :"Rusia and the USSR " it never was just Russians who fight. The battles of Poltava ,Kursk,Berlin, we speak about tens of thousands (even millions )of uckrainians,belarusians,tatars and others who fight. So,on that logic we can say that the Uckrainians too sustained many loses and defeats ,while in the ends not losing. This can be the first war since 15 century when russians fight alone ok ,still not alone but at least without their principals allie Uckraine ,or his traditional allie United Kingdom.)

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

> So,on that logic we can say that the Uckrainians too sustained many loses and defeats ,while in the ends not losing. I didn't stated otherwise, it seems you apparently miss the message, namely this will be a long war and that the West should not fool itself that it will be over soon. See also the follow-up statement by Neitzel, you look at the trees and notice there are some that have damaged bark, while you miss the forest, congratulations.

[@pizzagogo6151]

Excellent summary to help understand the changing situation and now current context, thanks!

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

Glad it was helpful!

[@sirborkington1052]

11:40 Thought my phone screen was damaged lol

[@tordsteiro9838]

What really matters for long-term ability to wage war, is as much economics as it is manpower and morale. Considering that up to half a million skilled workers, especially IT-specialistes, has now left Russia, that the accumulated surplus of the state budget is gone and that they have had an accumulated deficit of almost 1400000000000 (1400 billion) rubles for the past three months, that indicators like car production is down somewhere between 80 and 90%, all this tells you that the Russian economy will not be able to sustain a war machine for the long run. At best, maybe it can sustain for 18 more months, but I find that quite unlikely, unless there is significan foreign intervention on the Russian side. Now, Ukraine is worse off so far, of course, but Ukraina already has foreign intervention on their side, and those foreigners haven't really started to be serious about it yet. Yet, still, it seems to be quite sufficient at the present stage. Hence, I don't think this will be a very long war. But the fallout from a Russian defeat may very well look like a continuation, even if it doesn't mean much fighting inside ukraine.

[@RomanShopa]

After having analysed multiple information sources, I have a grim feeling this will last for many years, like Syria, Afghanistan, Vietnam... Maybe over a decade. But I don't want to discuss that. It's too painful.

[@chefchaudard3580]

I don't think so. Lets be optimistic. If lt gen Ben Hodges is right, Ukraine will recover most of its territories in 2023. Then after, the war will be over, simply because russian army will be wear out. It is already in bad shape.

[@Firehawk376]

I doubt it. I expect the coming winter will be a bloodbath, resulting from poor Russian logistics, with major gains for Ukraine. Ultimately, I expect Russia to be completely expelled from Ukrainian territory by this time next year. The question is whether or not that will actually end the war though.

[@jojor9766]

I concur with L.A.R.S. about the outcome of the Russo-Japanese war. Also, you failed to mention that Russia does have a breaking point as all countries do. The Tsar found out that in 1917. The Tsar did not run out of troops. He ran out of troops willing to fight for him. Unlike 1917, famine is not stalking the people back home but the soldiers at the front seem to be suffering greatly from the terrible logistics of the army. The troops that are being captured look quite gaunt. This suggests that food is lacking in the front lines. Judging from forest fire satellite images, artillery fire from the Russian side has fallen off a cliff and shows no sign recovery. Russia has openly reached out to North Korea for ammunition. This indicates that there might not be just a delivery problem but a supply problem as well. Months ago, the world was treated to the laughable spectacle of Russia sending T 62 tanks into combat. These specimens had to be at least 50 years old as that is when Russia stopped making them for itself. These were at least the final variant and while they lacked reactive armor, they did at least have some composite armor. Now, there have been T 62 As seen heading off to Ukraine. These lack even composite armor and are simply rolled steel like a WWII tank. T 72 As which are like the latest T 62s in not having reactive armor have been seen in ever growing numbers. Apparently, the Belarussians have sent several dozen to Russia. Some AA artillery pieces that were declared obsolete in the 1950s have also been seen. The mobilized have been issued weapons that run the gamut from nothing special to horribly inadequate. Some were issued guns that seems to be more rust than metal. The mobilized complain of not received basic kit such as body armor, first aid kits and sleeping bags and all other manner of basic equipment. The point is that Russia is reaching ever further into history to find both heavy and light weapons for its troops. This along with an ever-diminishing logistics system make fielding anything approximating a modern army ever more difficult. The more ill-armed and ill-supplied the front-line soldiers are, the greater their losses. Meanwhile, while not starving, the people back home are suffering, and that suffering will get worse. Russian salaries are frozen or falling due to economic hardship. Russians are eating less. A good anecdote to show the desperation setting in is that most supermarkets are placing butter in anti-theft devices. Next year's budget has been published and is winding its way through the parliament. It calls for higher taxes, draconian cuts to social spending and a 2% GDP deficit. The government is cut-off from international finance so if there is not enough left in the central piggy bank then the printing presses will need to go brr and inflation will skyrocket. There have been sporadic signs of civil unrest. Numerous recruiting offices and other administrative building have suffered arson attacks. There were anti-draft riots in Dagestan that forced the police to fire warning shots. One hero shot a recruiting officer in the head. There have been violent incidents at mobilization camps. One involved dozens of dead and wounded soldiers including at least one officer. These can be dismissed as isolated incidents, but I believe that they are a trend. A dam often shows small cracks before it fails. Remember that the Tunisian government was overthrown because the police abused a fruit vendor. Sometimes. a straw can really break a camel's back.

[@goldreserve]

Ukraine's GDP cut by 45% according to the World Bank. That's before Russia started targeting power sub stations. If Russia really believed they will be locked in a stalemate they would hit the power plants which would leave Ukraine without power for weeks/months. Russia stopped exports from Odessa because the sanctions weren't lifted on Russian exports. Russia apparently thinks they can win a war of attrition.

[@jojor9766]

Your statistic might have some meaning if the world was not assisting Ukraine. Even countries like Saudi Arabia which are not assisting Ukraine militarily are offering humanitarian aid. The closest things to allies that Russia has are North Korea and Syria and neither of these countries are exactly in a position to help economically. Ukraine is suffering from power cuts, but these are not fulltime cuts. While the cuts are incredibly inconvenient to the populace they will become less and less as the losses are repaired and new air defenses are provided to the Ukrainians by the world and Russia continues to draw down its finite supply of ballistic missiles. I do not know if you noticed this but the Mullahs who are Russia's sole lifeline in this regard are on the verge of being thrown out. Iran has been convulsed by anti-regime violence that grows daily. I remember watching this as a child. Unlike the Shah though these thugs have no cushy Western havens to retreat to. I doubt even Russia will welcome them as it will hope to try to curry favor with the new government. Even China and India have lowered the amount of trade that they are doing with the Russians. Perhaps you should take a second look at the Black Sea. Presently the Turkish Navy is still escorting grain ships, and the Turks say that Russia can't back out of the deal. Will the vaunted Black Sea fleet come out of its hiding places and chose to challenge the mighty Turkish Navy? The old witch that is Mother Russia is now on her knees. Apparently, she will need to be stripped naked and beaten before she gives up on the idea of eating the Ukrainian kid. So be it, if that is what she wants. Once she is beaten and bloody, she might reconvert to Christianity and give up her paganism.

[@felixstumm]

What a good shabbosgoy you are.

[@jojor9766]

Why thank you Mr. Troll. I feel honored that you took time to crawl from beneath your bridge to congratulate me. I think we can all see what type you are by assuming that telling the truth about Russia's upcoming defeat is a Jewish plot. What makes you think I am not a Jew myself?

[@matovicmmilan]

@@jojor9766 How many times have various Western media assets and political authorities claimed that Russia was about to break apart for wide variety of reasons since the start of the SMO in February? Inevitable economic collapses within days were announced so many times that I've stopped counting! Alleged incidents of civil unrest which are turning into revolution? Oh yeah - should I even mention all the alleged military disasters and setbacks which make me wonder how come Russia hasn't yet capitulated? And after all of these predictions proved 1/1 true - here comes another set of "prophecies" from you?

[@zenster1097]

Love the GoT reference. Have a like.

[@roryoneill9444]

That comment about "I hope it isn't as awful as Season 8" is priceless.

[@heathwirt8919]

The Russian army historically won after severe losses in WW2 because the army and Russian citizens were fighting for the existence of their country against an invading army. With their backs against the wall it was either destroy or be destroyed. The situation in 2022 is completely different, the Russian army has shown they can endure incredible losses but have shown little support at the troop level for this invasion. Thousands of potential fighting men are fleeing the country on a daily basis. The will to fight and the morale of the troops is extremely low for the Russian soldiers in the field that lack even basic military supplies. The Ukraine is recapturing territory on a daily basis by bringing the fight to the poorly equipped and a poorly trained army of invaders. The Russian attacks has become nothing more than long range attacks using standoff weapons aimed at civilian targets with little or no strategic value. Putin has manged to turn almost the entire world against him (minus other fascist and communist dictators) through his arrogance and committing of war crimes. NATO countries and other democratic countries will help Ukraine protect their sovereignty for as long as it takes. This war of attrition will cripple Putin and bring him and Russia to its knees.

[@MFenix206]

It also helps that our corrupt western leaders can use Ukraine to get kickbacks and launder money. honestly i expect the west *wants* a long war, just like they wanted the decades of conflicts in the middle east.

[@allewis4008]

Russia won because Ukraine was carrying their useless butts.

[@Pangora2]

Also all the trained experienced Germans wound up dying. Germany fielded more and more men throughout the war with little to be done with them. The tactical advantage flipped.

[@nvelsen1975]

I think part of this video is making the point that a big enough horde of untrained unmotivated conscripts can still win, or do terrible damage before defeat. Just because their professional army has been largely destroyed, doesn't mean Russia is days away from defeat, or that they will now stop attacking civilian targets. And Ukraine is still transitioning from a Russia-equipped to a NATO-equipped army at this moment. That multitude of different types of gear and improvised units is reducing combat effectiveness.

[@heathwirt8919]

@@nvelsen1975 I know of no war in history where an untrained, unmotivated "army" ever won a war. To claim it could happen now is BS.

[@Durahan82]

There's no Blitzkrieg for Russia only Blyatkrieg

[@aaronbaker2186]

I expect it will be as bad as season 8, for the Russians. I expect the lack of supplies includes cold weather gear and high calorie food. Russia may take major casualties from the cold and lack of food.

[@jackray1337]

I know Season 8 of the TV show "24" was rather bad. There are lots of "season 8" shows, so I'm unsure which one.

[@duckbuster1572]

He’s referencing Game of Thrones.

[@jackray1337]

@@duckbuster1572 Thanks. I've never seen that show.

[@MilitaryHistoryVisualized]

"Winter is coming" was a regular reference on Game of Thrones that I think actually was also known to people that did not necessarily watch it.

[@jackray1337]

@@MilitaryHistoryVisualized I didn't know "winter is coming" was some sort of phrase picked up by that show. I've heard that phrase a long time in connection to 'winter is coming, so...(insert some statement about preparing for winter)'. Apparently all I knew about that show is the name and that I didn't watch it.

[@Marc83Aus]

Ah i have been pronouncing Squirreldonesk wrong this whole time.

[@Anton_Frey]

Se-ve-ro-do-netsk Thats how the name is pronounced.

[@Marc83Aus]

@@Anton_Frey I've always been saying Severaldonesk because I noticed there is at least 2 of them.

[@Anton_Frey]

@@Marc83Aus one is just a Donetsk - capital of DPR. Another city Severodonets (Northern Donetsk) - just a city in DPR. Don't forget - there are aslo cities "Paris" and "New York" somewhete in the same area. So, don't be shocked when you see in news something like: Russian army bombed New York and forced Ukranians to retreat - it is not about USA. At least for now...

[@Marc83Aus]

@@Anton_Frey Theres Also Mylove in Kherson, which i know many were happy to hear had been liberated.

[@gauriblomeyer1835]

In history the weakest forces were often successful because of their superior courage.

[@veritasaequitas2632]

The main difference of modern Russia if you compare to WWII that there are no US industry which help USSR on its side. Without foreign industry RA would failed to Wermacht till mid/end of 1943

[@pointlesspublishing5351]

But...but...Putin says otherwise, so it must be wrong. Right, RIIIIGHT? 🙂

[@Anton_Frey]

And where did you get such a secret information? From KZbin bloggers? Or Wikipedia? USA help was great, but without it war still could be winned by USSR. It would have taken more lifes, but the result woul have been the same. The German economy was unable to win the war against USSR.

[@pointlesspublishing5351]

Nope. German focused large amounts of its manpower in the east, but the Bulk of its Industrial Output went West. And think about what No bombing campaign would have done. You could argue not seizing Baku etc limited germanys ability to use mobile troops, though.

[@Flamechr]

Well being a soldier without socks and a sleeping bag "any kind of winter gear" in the winter is not going to end well for the Russians

[@Raptor747]

I think you're missing one point: while Russia might be willing to sustain a long war for little gain, its economy probably won't be able to sustain that desire. Furthermore, Russia is showing signs that its war-machine is not significantly improving over time, nor is its logistical or organizational flaws showing any signs of improvement. Ukraine's greatest vulnerability is its reliance on foreign aid to continue fighting as effectively as it is. The good news is that this is not showing signs of stopping any time soon, and the expenditure is clearly and objectively paying massive dividends for European and North American (and Australian) interests. Russia, meanwhile, has very few friends and is burning through what goodwill those friendships have left. Russia's biggest foreign arms supplier is Iran; Russia was able to do a one-time looting of Belarus's stockpiles of artillery ammunition and some other military hardware, but that's about it. Losing enormous revenue from oil and gas sales has created a gaping hole in Russia's budget, and the major economic hemorrhaging that will inevitably result from hundreds of thousands of emigrants and a million more young men fleeing the country (to say nothing of how many are in hiding, or have been conscripted, or have just died), and I can't help but wonder just how long Russia can sustain an effective war effort.

[@goldreserve]

Russian oil and gas sales at an all time high. 80% of the world (by population) isn't sanctioning Russia; BRICs, Suadi Arabia etc. Look at the strength of the Ruble, the world's strongest currency in 2022. Russia recently mobilized it's economy to produce weapons. US provoked armed conflicts to sustain US hegemony have cost millions of lives.

[@useodyseeorbitchute9450]

"nor is its logistical or organizational flaws showing any signs of improvement" I'd say that there is some improvement in relation to first phase of war when it let its supply lines exposed and even aa systems being targeted by drones. "is its reliance on foreign aid to continue fighting" It's also an asset as weapon factories are beyond Russian reach. "I can't help but wonder just how long Russia can sustain an effective war effort." Estimates on speed of burning not frozen cash reserves say that should last for a year or two. I neither think it would crash much sooner, nor that it would be operational much longer.

[@b3ygghsas]

@@goldreserve The ruble is only strong because of monetary makeup from russia's central bank, they prohibited rubles from being sold and then started selling and buying rubles to themselves creating an artificial demand, however that's not healthy for an economy and russia cannot sustain this forever, the ruble is only strong on paper because on the international market nobody wants rubles

[@Anton_Frey]

You are right only about "no changes in rulling system of Russia" - this is really sad and fear a lot of people. To win anything, from a computer game to a war we need to admit our failures in order to strengthen the weakest pointa and advance. Without it - only higher and higher pain defeats...

[@chrisb7198]

@@goldreserve lmao the ruble isn't even in the top ten in 2022. The leader is the Kuwaiti Dinar.

[@liquidrock8388]

You're correct that the ability to endure losses in men and materiel will be the key factor in that conflict. It does seem like Ukraine has the edge in the long run. It might not have too much of defence industry left, but unless the collective west makes a massive strategic mistake and stops supporting them with equipment they will be able to outlast Russians. The latter are far from able to replenish their losses and so far they have relied on massive stockpiles of weapons and munitions inherited from USSR. Those will not last forever and the quality of that equipment will gradually decrease. When it comes to manpower Russia has a larger pool to draw from but it's not clear if they can endure losses of this magnitude while fighting an aggressive war with little to no motivation from the common troops. Ukrainians on the other hand have their backs against the wall and are as determined as it gets.

[@user-yc3wd8iq9t]

West is out of stockpiles already, and production is not nearly enough. Every military help package is smaller then the previous one. And Russian missile stocks have been depleted back in March, so Ukraine is apparently bombing itself from that point on.

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@user-yc3wd8iq9t very well stated, especially the last part

[@MarcinP2]

Russia is eating trough munitions they should be saving for a war with NATO. Which means yhey gave up on the idea of conventional war with the West and will have to rely entirely on nuclear deterrance. There is also some repurposing of anti ship missiles.

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@MarcinP2 you should trade places with your phone and let it do the thinking for you ...these are beyond delusional takes...all of them

[@ungeimpfterrusslandtroll7155]

What magnitude? Or is that based on ukrainians or british intelligence. I doubt that russian losses are that massive especially considering that until recently most of the fighting was done by the two republics and chechens.

[@blaircolquhoun7780]

The Russians should have studied Operation Iraqi Freedom's "Shock and Awe" campaign. They didn't and it's like the Europeans not learning the errors of trench warfare by not studying what happened in the American Civil War.

[@akira28shima32]

“HiMar enters the chat!!”

[@SavageJunky]

It was not an Ukrainian counteroffensive... It was a super duper special retreat technique from the Russian 🤣🤣🤣

[@fullm3taljacket]

I mean yeah, the gave ground and lost almost no troops vs the Ukrainians losing the best they had left, to the tune of about 36k men. If that's a great victory, I'd hate to see what a Ukrainian defeat looks like

[@nevermindmeijustinjectedaw9988]

special military operation of giving up all they had gained over all these months 😆

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@nevermindmeijustinjectedaw9988 some cattle fields with no strategic value (which is what also made them indefensible?)

[@f00koff42]

@@fullm3taljacket the Russians lost their best armored formation two times, first during the retreat from Kiev and then again during the loss of Kharkov Oblast. But I guess those losses are negligible for a side that doesn't view its own people as humans

[@nevermindmeijustinjectedaw9988]

@@fullm3taljacket ...which is why you had to fight so hard to get them in the first place, right? xDDD it's a total stalingrad except russia never got close to capturing kharkiv unlike the germans in stalingrad ever thought about why putin needed another 300k men so incredibly soon and without equipping or training them properly? occam's razor dictates that it's because by the time he expects to have deployed those 300k people, he also expects to have lost as many and needs replacement for the meat grinder

[@ballenboy]

They pretty much blitzed themselves into early attrition by overextending and never being able to catch up with logistics.

[@andrewreynolds4949]

The loss of population will be a long-term problem. Many with the means to escape take their small pool of resources and experience with them. Russia is already having demographic issues and this is absolutely making things worse.

[@Conn30Mtenor]

One thing I do need to point out is that there is no unified Russian command structure- The Wagner Group and The Chechens are commanded by Siloviki, not by a modern equivalent of Stavka. So far they have shown themselves to be unable or unwilling to cooperate. The Army of the Russian Federation is NOT Stalin's Red Army. Not in the slightest.

[@jimscott1717]

You mention Russia's comeback in WW2. Russia were heavily supplied by the West (trucks, cables, comms., ammo, food). I don't think the west are going to be providing this support now.

[@goldreserve]

Germany failed at the gates of Moscow in 1941 after taking a million casualties in 6 months (almost no lend lease received).

[@NotShiggy]

I thank you for making unbiased information based videos about this subject, it can be hard to find true information about this.

[@kackbraten5390]

Mach dir was auf die gegenüberliegende Seite vom Mikro. Buchregal, Schaumstoff oder nen Micscreen. Ist ein wenig hallig.

[@aniksamiurrahman6365]

The last section reminds me of General Washington's losses in the early to mid phses of American civil war.

[@advancetotabletop5328]

Thanks for the summary and analysis of the three phases. You’re the first channel that’s appeared on my recommendations who has done this. Also important to remember that Ukraine wasn’t winning all the time. Continued support to Ukraine!

[@aighti]

Nice to see you're doing videos about this actual topic as well man! The stuff of WW2 is more interesting normally but the Ukraine war is an exception

[@samdumaquis2033]

Very interesting

[@IrishCarney]

Bundeslia = Germany's soccer league. So for Americans the equivalent of saying "we just want to get back to watching the NFL."

[@Igor-ug1uo]

I'm wondering what your thoughts are on Russian logistics ability to supply an army that will grow by more than 2 times in the course of 1-2 months.

[@bigbird799]

From what I’ve seen the logistical problems from the beginning of the war too the mobilization has begun to catch up quickly. By the time ~200,000 reservists finish their training it’ll have stabilized to be effective enough to maintain adequate supplies.

[@andromidius]

They are non-existent. They couldn't even supply the army they had at the start properly, let alone a larger force with fewer effective trucks, wrecked roads and bridges and a very limited rail network. Russian soldiers get dropped off and then abandoned by all accounts (source being many phone calls intercepted between soldiers and their families back home and the testimonies (and poor condition) of many POW's. It would be funny if so many people weren't suffering - both Ukrainian and Russian (and all the other foreign mercenaries Russia won't admit to using). Its a farce without a punchline, and it needs to end if Russia wants to continue as a state. This is how the October Revolution happened.

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@andromidius now imagine the civilian populace has no power or heat.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@bigbird799 Do you know how the freshly mobilized Russian soldiers are trained? They put them on a train. There, fully trained. Then the train is sent to Ukraine, and those soldiers get killed within 12 days, on average.

[@albertcaronia5046]

Hmm,u skipped over one small war-WW1.This is where 30% of the German Army completely destroyed the Russian Army leading to the collapse of the Russian Empire.

[@MrMordechaiAnilevich]

Have the Ruzzians taken measures against Thunder Runs?

[@cheeseschrist2303]

8 months - 24th February to 2nd November. 😉

[@ggtt2547]

Thinking of the Winter War, which is a very good point btw. They Russians today are in much much worse situation than they were in the Winter War. Projected, that means that (adjusted for the respective sizes of the wars) they would have to lose much more in order to win. And in the same time they have much less to throw at the war in the first place. Honestly i cannot see them achieving anything at all without a cataclysmic event. Would love to read some thoughts on this.

[@lolasdm6959]

No, not even close to the winter war.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

That seems deluded to me. If it's not obvious Ukraine is collapsing in three months I'll be very surprised. See the most recent video from the History Legends channel.

[@hailexiao2770]

​@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Why would I believe anything from History Legends Channel? He's been predicting that Ukraine is going to loose "soon" many times since the start of the war, and to make things worse appeared on a panel with Gonzalo Lira, which is -99% to credibility for anyone.

[@ggtt2547]

@@hailexiao2770 I mean, who takes a guy who does cringy faces on the thumbnail of his videos seriously? This is actual comedy

[@katamarankatamaranovich9986]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 What? Ukraine is in much better spot right now, than it was during the summer. See you in 3 month.

[@peterfmodel]

This analysis is accurate; I can see the possibility of a long war. If Russian had fully secured the 4 oblast’s they may have started negotiations during the Rasputitsa, but I cannot see that occurring now. We will experience another summer of warfare. The real question is what it would take to stop the war. If Russia was totally expelled out of Ukraine, with the exception of the Crimea, negotiations may occur. This assumes Ukraine does not extend the conflict into any core Russian territory, which includes the Crimea. If Russia secured the four oblast’s it wanted, then once again negotiations may occur. Economic collapse may also end the war, but that would probably take 2-3 years of additional conflict. I can’t see any other scenario’s which would end the war, apart from Putin being replaced, which is very unlikely.

[@fullm3taljacket]

The West is unwilling to let the negotiations happen. Ukraine and Russia are willing

[@peterfmodel]

@@fullm3taljacket There is a strong element of truth to what you have said, but currently Russia has officially refused to engage in any negotiations, which is not an unconditional surrender. There is no reason for Russia to do so as they would enter into negotiations at a disadvantage. From a German point of view there is nothing that would make the current government in Berlin happier than an end to this war. Perhaps the same cannot be said for the current government in Washington.

[@user-yc3wd8iq9t]

: Economic collapse may also end the war Whose ecoomic collapse, exactly?

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@peterfmodel hey, I don't disagree, I just meant in the past.

[@fullm3taljacket]

@@user-yc3wd8iq9t only one side is suffering economically

[@comentedonakeyboard]

Politically Putin entraped himself, the day he anexed (not just ocupied) Crimea, thus leaving Russia in a similar Dilemma as Germany after the anexation of Allsace-Lorraine.

[@Robban.D.Jonsson.]

How about collectively calling them the Russian war crime phase?

[@fullm3taljacket]

Lol, "war crime"

[@rosameltrozo5889]

"Trust me bro" phase

[@Robban.D.Jonsson.]

@@fullm3taljacket would you happen to have a better way of describing Russian soldiers actively targeting civilians?

[@vj2345]

Nice objectivity. As a Historian should be!

[@bigsarge2085]

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