The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt | Russell Napier

[@BlockworksHQ]

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[@Houthiandtheblowfish]

unfortunatley this russel is an atlanticist that has already made his mind and the reasons he brings up are true but the conclusions arent saying that because chinas stock market is 10 times pe means the same thing when us was 10 times pe looks over the structure of the pie rather than how much of it is left stock market doesnt run the real economy in china like usa

[@Alex-su1in]

Woooooooow. HUGE props for bringing Russell Napier to the show! He's such a sharp mind. Much looking forward to this episode! And btw, Jack you do an absolute stellar job with this podcast. Top notch content.

[@advocate1563]

Oh well done. Mr Maestro himself. More Mr Napier please. He's excellent. Well done Jack.

[@advocate1563]

Another Russell podcast just landed banking crisis = new rules for investors and regulators. Offers the investment thesis for those seeking. Hasn't changed. Gold, equities (particularly Industrials, defence and infrastructure). Whilst historically equities didn't weather inflation well in the 1970s he argues diff context this time round, not least subsidised credit from govt who are taking over the system, crowding out private investment.

[@amandeepsangha2308]

Best interview of Russell Napier Ever. Unbelievably good job done Jack. Many congratulations

[@somejohndoe3004]

At last, a fresh interview with Russell, well done BM. 🎉

[@mountainman9145]

The takeaways of this discussion (for the average person in the street) begin at 1:02:00 and they are: i) Napier believes interest rates will go up rather than come down as governments will choose inflationary mechanisms rather than deflation ; ii) He envisages a monetary system where the government forces the private sector to use their savings to buy government bonds - capital controls; iii) Restrictions on the free movement of capital; iv) The current structure of investment portfolios need to be changed to accommodate governments whose remedy for debt is to inflate away the savings of the private sector.

[@shawn576]

I think governments are already doing that (forcing people to buy government bonds). Americans and Brits don't buy Canadian debt, so why do Canadian financial institutions hold it? Because it's required. There were some recent news articles about using the Canada Pension Plan (a government pension) to somehow boost investment in Canada. That's a really odd thing to say because they would already be doing that if investing in Canada was the highest risk-adjusted return. Every program ends up being some political scam, and every country does it. Doesn't the US Social Security fund mainly hold US government bonds? Do they hold that because it's the best possible return or because it's yet another government scam? Of all the things they could invest in, and in all the countries in the world, that just happened to be the best thing to hold?

[@younube2]

How does a western government force the private sector to purchase bonds with negative real yields vs inflation?

[@shawn576]

@@younube2 They've successfully done that for more than a decade. The rationale is that not everyone wants to yolo into stocks. If you need something to hold its nominal value with reasonably high certainty in a short period of time (ex: you might need to sell it within a year), bonds are better than cash. Actual inflation is a hell of a lot higher than the government says it is, so bonds with 2% yield effectively had negative real yield, but people still bought them.

[@younube2]

@@shawn576 👍

[@andrerozzo4052]

Thanks! What would be a portfolio allocation to deal with that kind of repression?

[@nirvaanmeharchand5896]

One of your best guests ever - great job Blockworks.

[@joegage1255]

Always amazing to listen to Russell! One of the great minds of the Financial world today

[@AlbertGReene-p8w]

With stocks so expensive right now, the main aim for me is to make right value additions to boost my portfolio growth in this bubble ahead of 2025 with about 250 grand i have parked in the bank making nothing. What stocks should be on my watchlist?

[@Too-old-Forthischet]

Bitcoin through 2025, then high yield ETFs through the bear market 26’-27’ that's my plan.

[@SkepticalMechanic-l9x]

"DCA" is the golden term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% SCHD, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388.

[@americanopinions]

I find your situation fascinating. Would you be willing to suggest a trusted advisr you've worked with?

[@SkepticalMechanic-l9x]

Sure i don't mind. I've stuck with ‘’Sophia Irene Powell ” for years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

[@BrianMattews-i7t]

Thank you for the lead. I searched Sophia up and her webpage popped up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Cheers!

[@timothycarne3151]

I would love to hear more about the portfolio he sees as best for this new “regime”.

[@paulbellefleur1115]

I give Jack a 10 out of 10 for that one. Fantastic questions and an amazing interview.

[@user_375a82]

I've watched this interview 4 times now and going to listen another 4.

[@jayearl3591]

Napier is the GOAT. A true legend, along with Howell and Alden.

[@draymond5067]

And Groman

[@Rich_7755]

It would be interesting to have Russell and Michael Howell on together.

[@robbybroon4904]

Kurt Russell and Russell Brand. Discuss

[@advocate1563]

Agree - would be fascinating. Or perhaps Charles Calhounis whose academic style might complement Russell better.

[@hei_zen]

Indeed, that would be quite a matchup

[@dankurth4232]

Michael Howell and Russell have a most different time horizon in their analysis. The variable which matters for Howell is liquidity a rather short to middle range one, the question which matters for Russell is long term monetary politics conditions. That’s a difference like that between wheather and climate. A prudent investor should rather follow Michael Howell in his decisions with a 1 to 2 years horizon and take up to 10% of his net (!) profits and buy gold preferably storing it not necessarily physical yet definitely in a location where his government can’t get to it

[@bigredfan123]

Another excellent interview Jack with the Russell Napier. Thank you!

[@saschahastings2653]

Very well done, Jack! You've come a long way since RV. I think you're one of the most prepared and astute financial interviewers out there. Kudos for getting Russell on your show! He's always so interesting.

[@grokkinghumans]

Best interview I've heard all year!

[@jaybarganier]

Congrats Jack. I told you a couple of years ago at a Maverick crypto party that I could see you learning during your interviews. Whatever you are doing to prepare these days is excellent. You sounded more like an old pro than a journeyman here. Great job!!

[@mikesteen-l1i]

Even if you didn’t fully understand all of that and I think not many do, it was a great listen, well done.

[@keanchan888]

This was brilliant, thanks Jack. One of your best

[@RickyDale-k7i]

Great historical look at global economics. Russell Napier is a great guest to have on your show.

[@sameerai2174]

Can’t thank you enough for this interview!

[@TunnelVisionAthletic]

Wooow! Been waiting for ages to get big Russel Back well done!

[@Jeffo66]

Fantastic interview. A man who shared his vast knowledge so eloquently and with such humility and with practical application, it’s a political economy so beware. Brilliant 👍

[@darrenmunro2880]

Jacks getting better at this game. Fair play .

[@ShivSocratesKapoor]

This was really excellent. Great work, Jack.

[@markhow4266]

Terrific interview. Sharp, alternative, holistic perspective!

[@cpcreit]

Man, awesome interview, so many pts discussed not seen "anywhere"...would like to see Napier annually vs 2-3 yrs, his insights have always surprised me since 2017 when I first read his work/thinking....I need to buy that book asap...

[@b4bmm]

Would be nice to hear Russell opinion on how to position moving forward in such a perilous climate

[@sameerai2174]

Best finance interview!

[@sunnygee3712]

Amazing conversation from two brilliant minds. Thank you!

[@Secretbeachborder]

I like this guy-not opinion just historical facts-you make up your own mind. Bravo

[@user_375a82]

Some great insights in this interview.

[@tonymcbride4064]

When I see a Jack Farley notification, I get excited. You're crushing it with these interviews! 🙏

[@sammyvh11]

Chris Farley was always jealous of Jack

[@MrHansBattle]

awesome discussion, thanks russell and jack!

[@alanmrsic893]

Great stuff, thanks again! In Gold we Trust!

[@OSavoi]

Fantastic interview! Well done Jack. Thx a lot

[@Rogcljon]

I have been patiently waiting for Russel Napier to return. When he tells me China has issues I believe his analysis from others it feels like propaganda at times.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@cappedvillain2522]

yep i had to watch this twice

[@pekkarousu3616]

No. China does NOT net buy treasuries. About 8 years ago they had 1.4 trn dollars in treasuries but today 0.8 trn, almost half. Besides, the proportion of US debt owned by China is much smaller now. In 2016 it was 8% of US debt. Now it's only 2.5%. China is only rolling off debt, not buying and not selling. In 4 years it will be close to nothing. Then the Petrodollar can die. They have lent out some dollars but I guess those loans can be changed to Yuan if the dollar tanks. Today Chinese part of US debt is 2.5% as I said, but in only 3 years it can be as low as 0.5% since the US debt is exploding. The government deficit is in fact now 3.5 trn per year since the debt grows by 3.5 trn per year. And since Covid different accounts were filled with cash that they have spent now. They must borrow more. The US debt WILL explode and almost the only buyer will be the FED. Some day the world will say no to this US scam and ditch the dollar. Besides, the BRICS will dedollarise. Besides, countries in the Global Majority will not trust having reserves in the US since they steal the money when they want to. No. The dollar will go to shit just in a few years. Not more than let's say 7 years. And some silly CBDC won't change that

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

You really don't get it at all.

[@ssuwandi3240]

Good, no more dealing w double Agent Iran's proxy. You still really think they're an honest morale bunch do you

[@russellsnead3977]

The analyst is giving a perspective where the collective West is relevant in China’s economic model. While they are preparing for it not to be relevant. He’s using Western history as a comparison when they’re clearly playing a different game. China is not only creating a supply chain but they are also creating a market. The old measures don’t apply here. We’re preparing for a war that we’ve already lost.

[@joesb213]

this video should be shown over and over again once at least each month for young minds to know what exactly is happening

[@cyberslim7955]

40:00 That's right, the valuation is irrelevant, if the risk is not priced in, because you cannot sell anymore and move the proceeds...

[@wissamali3136]

Can we get Louis Vincent Gave to give a counter view to Russell Napier views on China? Cheers.

[@kikolatulipe]

Big interview!

[@Weetorp]

Brilliant, he really gets it!

[@jcgmba98]

Superb, and scary, analysis and historical review

[@camanishjain3470]

Unfortunately I didn't get any insights on the Indian economy in terms of how it is doing monetarily and financially. Still unable to understand why the Indian equities are going up and up, but still no concrete reasons why it is going up, esp. when foreign investors/FPI are withdrawing from India.

[@antpoo]

Money printing. Rising tide lifts all boats.

[@RichardBullKTM]

No mention of energy and growth in energy supply, the fundamental enabler of growth?

[@graceamsterdam5404]

Thanks for a good interview!

[@greggcal4583]

Russell is a mind.

[@advocate1563]

He certainly has one

[@jtrealfunny]

Great guest.

[@69elcuchillo]

Where does the private holding of gold into this scenario

[@sanshuma0]

Fantastic session

[@francisravenscroft-dw6gi]

The issue is : where are these vast amounts of US treasuries? As the US debt spirals out of control will this encourage world central banks to dump treasuries? and negotiate via brics ( simply by using a brics member nation to act as a front for the deals- its easy to imagine Dubai for example as a new financial hub.

[@wsteele5864]

I was laughing, thinking what the same interview with any one of the CNBC regulars doing the questions might yield. I realized with a guy like Russell Napier, it would have been a complete disaster as the host keeps screwing up their scowl wondering what Russell just said? Great job Jack. Great insights as always from Russell.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thanks guys!!

[@MartinJG100]

Top notch.

[@theonlyconstantischange123]

Awesome stuff

[@neilcameron434]

"The terminal value of Chinese stocks is zero" wow. I believe this means all western foreign investment will be cut off either by the west or China. More worrying times ahead if Russell is correct.

[@adriansaw8329]

I think i am just going to unsubscribe from others and listen to the one here. Great insights!

[@WallaceRoseVincent]

We need to see Russell Napier and Hugh Hendry in the room at the same time. Lock the doors and let a go pro record the slap dowln! Acid lCapitalist vs. Great Mistakes Librarian!

[@Rnankn]

China is not following the same playbook. They only see markets as an intermediate stage, which was useful to achieve high levels of industrial development. The goal is to move past private markets and distribute prosperity on a more egalitarian basis. It seems reasonable to assume China has a plan, and that plan is better characterized as Marxist.

[@pekkarousu3616]

PE is important to get a grip on the true value/price of the stock market. When PE is crazy high a crash has profound implications on the economy and the country at large, it effects a bunch of things. But ONLY in countries where the stock market is big, as in Western countries. In China and Russia the total value of the stock market is much lower. Of the stock market in Moscow would crash 80% most people wouldn't notice it. It wouldn't create large effects on anything besides rich people who own stocks. Even if the Chinese stock market is over valued it isn't so very dangerous for China.

[@TheTsxGuy87502]

Napier is so smart that even when he just lays it out in plain words, it's still a darn complex thing to understand.

[@Jackson-l3r]

All those in DEBT that can never be paid back in lifetimes should have no business managing money period. Debt allows a thief to steal.

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

Much the opposite actually. Those with debt bought ASSETS. inflation will erode the payments. Basically ALLOWING leverage is the scam. But that is why governments lend to oligarchs

[@stanminna1761]

Jack AT HIS BEST

[@George-jm4rn]

Not the best Napier interview I've heard. Next time, I hope the interviewer skips the background and macro picture that's been covered in this and prior podcasts and focuses on concrete actions for the here and now (and foreseeable future).

[@GenXstacker]

I don't think they could skip a Chinese monetary system overhaul. That hasn't been covered before. But I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment: the lack of practical application brought this interview to a premature and rather disappointing end.

[@rof8200]

The consequence is going to be up only for gold

[@pekkarousu3616]

Change Chinese monetary policy because PE is high in China fearing a stock market crash. Stock market capitalization in China is 16 trn dollars in a economy with GDP PPP of 35 trn. That is a third. Calculated with GDP 18 trn dollar GDP stocks are worth around one year of GDP. US stock market capitalization (NYSE + Nasdaq) is 50 trn dollars in a economy of GDP 24 trn. That is twice as much. If the Chinese stock market would crash it won't change China dramatically and certainly not monetary policy. PE stocks China 10. PE stocks USA 45. And China is in trouble?

[@pekkarousu3616]

Minute 12. China "second largest economy"? GDP PPP China 35 trn dollar and USA 24. China produces MORE products and services. To not calculate with PPP in country comparisons is just wrong. If the coming 7 years goes like the last 7 years China's economy will be at least twice that of USA.

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

Oh hell no. Way off buddy.

[@cyberslim7955]

Property prices in China are in free fall, which is the only investment which made money in the past, so how can the GDP grow???

[@pekkarousu3616]

Oh this perpetual China bashing saying China is in trouble. Over and over have I heard that for years. "China problem growth GDP". Really? Look at the numbers. Yes, growth is lower than before but still very high. 1993-2013: 7-15%, average 10 % during 20 years 2014-2024: around 6% during 10 years. Imagine a growth of 6% the coming 10 years in China. That is a GDP 80% larger than today. But maybe it will be only 4%. Then GDP will be 50% higher than today.

[@velisvideos6208]

"Imagine 6% growth". This is pretty much what China is doing. Is there anybody who actually believes the official growth numbers? China is already in a debt-deflation spiral and getting out of it is very hard, given their enormous debt overhang. Add Trump's trade war to the mix, and serious stuff is going hit the fan. The best they can look for is a couple of lost decades like Japan. Could also end up with a great depression like the US in 1930's.

[@bestfriendhank1424]

Go figure, a pinned ad for crapcoin

[@jphone9200]

Very good

[@francisravenscroft-dw6gi]

How would the BRICS development impact on the Chinese international trade and monetary flows. At the moment this seems more an anti politicalized dollar initiative. However what would happen if the BRICS negotiated international trade in the notional value of gold - thus de-coupling the commodity from the western price fixing cartels that currently dictate golds global value. China and Russia governments have been stock pilling bullion for 2years.

[@weewillywonga]

BRICS is hot garbage. There really isn't anything to say about a bloc that is basically intended to transfer energy resources from irrelevant economies like Russia, into the hands of the Chinese. It really is that simple.

[@tomcoughlan2532]

That’s why I always thought bank bail ins would be non runner as private money be converted for bonds bank shares which would be highly deflationary.

[@josxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Phenomenal

[@andrewvare3173]

Aye laddie!

[@GenXstacker]

Always interested in Napier's take, but disappointed you guys didn't really get into what this means for investors. I know he has a service, but it's very expensive and I'm sure the vast majority of your audience can't afford it. I assume he still likes gold, favored US companies, and Asian equities ex-China. You could have at least explored what Japanese unloading of foreign holdings would mean for US markets.

[@pbacun571]

R.N. - the best!

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

That's debt that doesn't even include 15 trillion USD in LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT. Include that at the same time readjust the GDP down 30 to 45 percent (it is only reported locally and they are required to hit Numbers from Xi or disappear, so they DO hit the number even though it doesn't add up).

[@srpasa6814]

presenting the problem is one thing no long dated bonds no s+p 500 6-7% inflation long term whats the solution to this buy indebted japaneese equities ? exporters or importers ? cheap currencies japaneese and brazilian ??? could someone answer this?

[@renzodorio9334]

At the end....since levelling off is "always" on the downside.....the world seem headed to become a big "emerging" like market. The equity ratio UK/ world is an observation hint

[@Notrocketscience101]

I like the comment about wealth redistribution from savers to government. 😂 every time I try to engage in business in Latin America, I’ve met i’ve had my wealth redistributed in painful lessons. One guy actually had the temerity to say; “ you don’t understand the standard of living I need to keep up”

[@Derekhoffman312]

We are debt slaves. We are paying debts from borrowing done in our names, without our consent for the most part. But rather than get a bill in the mail, the interest is built into every good and service we buy. We are the embodiment of debt because the cost is paid by the very lifeblood of the consumer, earned over a strictly limited time called a life. We live on a prison planet.

[@tananga_studio]

Imagine what would happen to all of european factories in China is they invade Taiwan...

[@p.d.stanhope7088]

Xi's announcement will be roughly in June, 2024 but that could be also rescheduled too.

[@jimbobarooney2861]

China's weakening economy reflects the weakness of western economies imports from China especially in manufacturing, so the cold war is down to China offering deflation which goes against western nations inflationary/debasement policy. I agree with Russell's "ambush" theory as a once off bounce from the rapid debasement. Also imo rates will come down at least in the short term, the embedded inflation policy has yet to be priced into the long end, so its all still to play for

[@wiktorjespersen971]

So 1trn debt is not a problem for the usa?

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

Not when you have a higher inflation environment. Hell, 20 percent of that debt disappeared into inflation since 2021....

[@jarekpiotrowski742]

Gosh - I’m Struggling to understand how to protect my investments - this scared me ?

[@jacknaneek1681]

Great history recap. But what use is this guy? He’s a one factor analyst

[@fredcrossman5133]

How many books have you written?

[@Nate-ef8dz]

I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful one has to have multiple income streams and so on, also investors should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, joanna claire focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch

[@Kenneth23414]

Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.

[@Alden457]

Wall Street promoted "quality stocks"-those with strong profitability and low debt-as a form of protection against economic uncertainties. However, these stocks have lagged behind the S&P 500 this year. My $200,000 portfolio has declined by about 20%. Do you have any recommendations for improving my returns?

[@Thomas43211]

Nobody knows anything You need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

[@Hudson367]

Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $90,000 short of half a million in profit.

[@Scarlett34568]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

[@Hudson367]

I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Aileen Gertrude Tippy turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.

[@APOSTA-pz7vs]

a genius

[@Julian-pj2zi]

Discussion on global monetary system but no talk about the eurodollar system which IS the global monetary system 🤷‍♂️

[@baronred919]

buy chaos sell order 对应一放就乱，一管就死

[@jamessmithers4456]

Thus guy has got everything ass backwards. The real trigger of the Asian financial and economic implosion of 1997 was the drive by Japan pumping a tsunami of low cost money into the region using devaluing currency and then when the entire region was levered to the hills in ounhedged yen debt, the yen suddenly changed course and zoomed higher vs US$ and so vs local regional currencies all of which we tied to US$. As everything started to collapse China held steady and refused to devalue and in so doing became a key force in stabilizing the region following the Japan induced crash

[@mickusachus]

What happened in 1994

[@cloudiermonk]

When you realize BTC is the cbdc they won't control the asset but control everything through laws and knowing everything you have and do with btc.

[@Nick-io9uk]

21:50 is it really that unique? The graph show Systemic debt went from 150% to near 300% over 15 years from 2008. According to those "debt and deleveraging" reports from McKinsey aroung the GFC times, UK systemic debt went from under 250% of GDP in 1993 to over 500% by 2008.