Russell Napier. Twenty One Lessons from Financial History for the Way We Live Now.

[@jamesgardner6499]

It’s truly criminal that this doesn’t have more views.

[@Noallegiance]

It's not. If it had 3m views it would lose its competitive edge. I've never understood why people hold value in popularity.

[@advocate1563]

Russell is my secret sauce for keeping ahead of financial repression.

[@TmcksnT]

It's criminal but great for us 😏

[@PazLeBon]

@@Noallegiance doh

[@FogelsChannel]

Truly, it's criminal. Arrest the ungrateful, this crime must be punished.

[@nirvaanmeharchand5896]

Wow - felt like I was in the room with RN. Excellent - thank you.

[@Brian-iv8sc]

His 21 lessons are: 1. Spend as much time analyzing supply as you do demand. 2. GDP growth has no relation to future equity returns. 3. Gordon Pepper’s Law: When you see something unsustainable, calculate the maximum period of time that you think it can persist. Then double it and subtract a month. 4. Never think about anything else when you should be thinking about the power of incentives. When forced to choose, governments will give up control of the exchange rate. 5. Governments like markets as long as markets produce the prices governments want. Governments aren’t neutral and they take sides. 6. Mean reversion of corporate profits to GDP is strong: In a free society, this will remain true. 7. Assess monetary policy based on both the quantity of money and interest rates. 8. The most dangerous form of speculation is the reach for yield. 9. Populism is not a threat to countries with strong constitutions. 10. The best way to predict if a country will default on its debt is if they have previously defaulted on their debt. 11. When equity valuations are high, they fall slowly with inflation and quickly with deflation. 12. Never buy emerging market equity in a country with an overvalued exchange rate. 13. Tourism is the best indicator of an overvalued exchange rate. 14. Always buy equities when the CAPE is lower than 10, with three exceptions: when you believe communism or fascism will occur; when you suspect your capital stock can be destroyed by war; or if your currency has entered a new currency regime with an overvalued exchange rate like Greece in the eurozone. 15. Democracy is more suited to operation of capital controls than the free movement of capital. 16. Government does not have to print to inflate away debts because they have citizen savings (using financial repression) so hyper inflation will not occur in developed world. 17. Technology never defeats inflation. 18. Monetary systems fail about every 30 years. 19. Money is almost always in disequilibrium. 20. Never trust a forecast that has a decimal point. 21. Extrapolation is the opiate of the people.

[@andreww.8262]

Thanks, GPT.

[@Brandon-gw4ed]

Thank you, sir!

[@cocoarecords]

🎉❤

[@Firennnice]

❤

[@MasterBenTzu]

chad

[@Otto72ish]

Napier is always interesting and thought provoking. That doesn't mean that he is always right.

[@MTJChris]

Very interesting....

[@user-ps3qk3xl2d]

Top Stuff

[@ruialex7745]

OMG!!! I already listen to this 3 times!! So much to digest in this video. The explanation on "7. monetary policy based on both the quantity of money and interest rates" is just Amazing!!

[@sunnygee3712]

Thank you so much for the generous sharing of your wisdom, Mr Russell Napier! I am having a paradigm shift on my view of the world affairs after watch a few of your videos: For example, the unlikelihood of the scary Hyperinflation; gov directed bank credit allocation etc. Not too many people out there understand what money truly is in our time and how money, credit and exchange etc works as the traditional text books are so wrong as compared with experiences in real world. You are a rare treasure. I can not thank you enough!!!

[@mirkostanic92]

As an economist, a teacher of economics, and a person who personally takes care of my savings. Out of all educational books and free available content online, this is by far the most superior and comprehensive perspective on the next two or three decades.

[@PazLeBon]

English forbids double-superlatives.

[@mirkostanic92]

@@PazLeBon perhaps in formal English, this is the comment section of YT

[@PazLeBon]

@@mirkostanic92 but you're selling yourself as intelligent lol

[@mirkostanic92]

@@PazLeBon man, you may be selling yourself.. I am sharing my opinion. If you have anything constructive to discuss, go ahead, willing to participate. Otherwise, not willing to spend my time..

[@Cagalhuni]

@@mirkostanic92 Hi. Could you give me the title of this book please? Thanks a lot!

[@TunnelVisionAthletic]

There is a reason Russell is rarely on youtube, his that damn good!

[@debbarker8152]

Excellent presentation , highly informative and thought provoking more from this guy please . Watching from Australia 💯

[@jingmu1289]

This is a profound episode! Thanks a lot for sharing!

[@iPondR]

Library of Mistakes - what an interesting idea. Never trust a decimal point - what an interesting idea! Lessons from History - what an unpopular idea! Subscribed.

[@Anza_34832]

Excellent talk with profound insights. Thanks for uploading, and thanks to the Ytube algorithm for pointing me to it.

[@claudewaelchli9849]

Russell is brilliant as ever.

[@jtrealfunny]

Great speaker. Talking about why GDP growth doesn't have a relationship with stock market appreciation he references a 120 year old study and then quotes Warren Buffet: "price is what you pay, value is what you get" if you overpay it can take time to have value. Excellent

[@ozaurelius4128]

Thank you all for producing this.

[@advocate1563]

Russell is an applied intellect, combining the hard yards of knowledge acquisition with real world commercial nous. The fact he makes the complex so easy to understand is the cherry on the cake.

[@hawkarae]

You had me at "Library of Mistakes". Those who live outside the box, with a wink and nod ❤

[@LoveOneAnotherHeSaid]

Ego is dangerous to money.

[@buckyfanksy]

Thanks Russel for getting rid of the San-Ti threat. Good to see economics was your passion all along.

[@LukeAdam-Jones]

My portfolio for the past 30 years has always been self managed and I own 3 shares of RPC WEALTH IAF Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK:A) which I bought in at about $17,000 during the mid 90s, I’m currently liquidating some of these positions to incorporate new Gen. Stocks, but am I better off re-investing into Gold as it seems stocks are a little too unstable right now.

[@ElenaJonesuy2]

Invest in real estate, ETfs and high-yield savings account.

[@RachellGroth]

Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.

[@RebeccaRyan-xd9oi]

The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit. If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds. I am up by 418% in 1 year under guidance.

[@ElenaJonesuy2]

how do I get one and interview them? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?

[@RebeccaRyan-xd9oi]

RPC WEALTH IAF is a hot topic even among financial elitists. Just browse, you’d find them, thank me later.

[@vasilikimanoli9285]

Well, Greece is one example where the people are forced to give moneys to the government to create surplus, just to pay foreigner debt back. Foreigner being mainly German and French banks... This is the shortest and msot accurate explanations I've heard!

[@felixubogu5348]

Very informative and simply brilliant lecture!

[@JohnDoe-wp7kb]

Thank you Russell this lecture was amazing

[@dave8212]

Thanks Russell 👍🏻🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[@selvamuthukumarsmk3170]

Excellent thanks

[@jcl7372]

Brilliant.

[@vm-bz1cd]

AMAZINGLY GOOD VIDEO 👏👏👏

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@iBEEMproject]

Just wow, great speaker

[@AndreaSaggini]

Master

[@nthperson]

The old system is not being replaced. The existing system has evolved, evolved again and evolved again. The beginning was a time of societal control over the commons, a control based on tribal association characterized by an absence of hierarchy and an absence of private property in the commons. With settlement in one place and the growth of permanent towns came the need for law relating to property. The appearance of hierarchy results in the hierarchical claims to property that had once been the commons. Property law favored those who by heredity and by coercion gained control of the commons. They became the landed aristocracy. When deeds to land were established under laws of possession, they by the charging of rents orchestrated a redistribution of wealth from producers to this non-producing rentier elite. To agrarian landlordism was added commercial landlordism, then industrial landlordism and finally financial landlordism. These forms of landlordism has combined to result in the accelerating concentration of income, wealth and hierarchical power that dominates the world's societies today.

[@Wealthology__]

Truly one of the best

[@sutats]

Fascinating.

[@SS-qk8oc]

I wish I had smart friends who were interested in this…..

[@inflexioninflexion]

you are amongst friends...

[@kobulu231]

Good to see you here my friend

[@casamurphy]

During this excellent talk I found myself often thinking, "I'm glad I own bitcoin." With bitcoin I can enjoy deflation as the nautural good order. Inflation is theft of the wealth that deflation naturally brings to society. As technological advancement and debt spirals drive currency debasement I find that everything continues to cost less in bitcoin terms. This is the most interesting aspect of bitcoin, it gives little guys the ability to front run giants. Putting myself on a bitcoin standard has worked wonders. I would say to others not to wait. It is still early.

[@edawg654]

Yes! Bitcoin not crypto

[@casamurphy]

@@edawg654 Indeed, bitcoin's adoption and dollar price has been following a power law and has absolute decentralization and scarcity. Other projects using blockchain tech (crypto that is not Bitcoin) can't, nor do they want to, attempt to replace Bitcoin. These other projects are too speculative to be considered a wise savings asset. None of them are being adopted or appreciating in dollar terms with a power law progression like bitcoin.

[@jnucleo]

While Mr. Napier makes all the point of supply and demand like economists always do, not one mention of the basis of law, and whose law. Perhaps it's time to revisit the classic Greek philosophy of Aristotle who questioned the ethics of usury itself. "He believed that people obsessed with attaining wealth, would be too preoccupied to participate in the polis and fail to perform their civic duties". (Kozel, Philip, 2006. “Aristotle’s Discourse on Commodity Exchange.” In Market Sense: Toward A new Economics of Markets and Society. New York and London: Routledge, pp. 17-30). We see the breakdown of the nation states on a global scale today for this very reason.

[@brainkill7034]

If anything I would say it is quite the opposite in the US today. Those obsessed with obtaining wealth now are able to use it to bribe (aka lobby) the polis to manipulate the structure in their benefit without having to actually have the best product or service. Crony capitalism at best.

[@Raymond-wj4ol]

Regarding #9, read the "Great Taking" by Tom Webb.

[@flakieflake9616]

The most troubling thing is when he talks about Weimar Germany "Why didn't they mobilise the peoples savings? A because they didn't have any" But that is the case in America today with the vast majority having no savings, and even those earning $100 K claiming they can't make ends meet. Von Mises Crack up Boom theory comes to mind.

[@PazLeBon]

its cos americans buy stuff they cant afford....... on credit!

[@nikolaussoundso]

Thats not true, look at tables of median and average net wealth. Even the 25th percentile US-American is well off. Most is in the hands of boomers.

[@AnBreadanFeasa]

The US savings rate is 3-4%, and during Covid it was considerably higher. Certainly a huge proportion of US citizens have no safety net but those that do have considerabe savings and investments. Ignoring billionaires, those who have wealth have plenty. Approx 22m Americans have a net worth of more than $1m. According to Federal statistics the average adult has a net worth of over $500,000, which includes their homes. There is much fragmentation depending on age, income, region, education, ethnicity, etc., but aggregate savings in the US reaches staggering numbers.

[@jussi3378]

A lot of people scrape by simply because they overspend. If money becomes actually tight, there are surprisingly lot of ways to save money. Not talking about actually poor people

[@PazLeBon]

@@jussi3378 well thats ok then cos most of the working class are poor people,yep, im sure its easy to asave money when you have excess

[@kirkstable]

Point #6 I believe the “free society” you speak of is specifically the structure change most deny due to bias

[@arandmorgan]

Section 5 big Corporation. It's a natural progression for capitalism to end this way as described in Marx's theory of capitalism. It takes socialist (not neo liberalism) to revert this back to sustainable levels.

[@ryanshaw4250]

I have watched about a dozen hours of Russel and loved some things he said, liked the rest but never disagreed on anything until this video. He mentioned that the US constitution is strong.. Sorry, I unfortunately found out in my last businesses how out of control the US has gotten. The constitution as well as rule of law is gone in the US. 2nd amendment is not respected in most blue cities, 4th ammendment secures us fron un warranted searches including on our documents and private communications, gone since the patriot act. and state and local governments do whatever they want including straight stealing what they want and going after all the local businesses. I discovered that poor areas in the US arent poor because the people dont want to work, but because of well entrenched criminal organizations which run the police and local governments with an iron fist.. We have watched the crazy commence, uniparty is shaking things up and I sold all my US assets and moved back to Japan. I know changes are coming everywhere including Japan but the US is unworkable in my eyes. regulatory capture has taken all logic our of all the Us major markets and blackrock's 10 year strategy is all about "public private partnerships" aka wee going full on late socialism and I agree, im just not rich enough to benefit from that and the crushing SMBs is horrible for business.

[@martinyuvone]

Muy bueno! Incluso con una referencia al bono a 100 años que metio Toto Caputo con Macri en Argentina... jeje Gracias Señor! Ahora con Milei, esperamos pagar todas nuestras cuentas.

[@Dknow7812]

Where is more literature on Pepper’s Law? Origin/person etc

[@suckers0]

Look up Gordon Pepper, economist.

[@davidgray3321]

All interesting but the truth is that no one, especially academics no what will happen next. Historians particularly, they will tell you exactly who something happened during in the past but use lots of “possibly” or “likely” and so on when talking of the future.

[@ednorton47]

Ask the General Motors bondholders if the USA has "the rule of law".

[@happychappy7115]

Logistics/ supply chains are fundamental. Brexit, COVID reminded us just how crucial these are, beyond assessment of supply & demand 😮

[@limackthrejjal1358]

At the start i feared that this would turn into a goldbug but at the half way point it had interesting ideas and I'm optimistic that it won't turn into that.

[@davidgray3321]

Sorry about typos, in a rush, you get the jist.

[@koray6671]

37:30 In what instance Turkey has defaulted in its debt?

[@suckers0]

I think he was talking about the nine nations most likely to default and gave Turkey as one example (I assume because of its recent inflation problem, fast falling value of its currency and that whilst its debt/GDP ratio is relatively low, about half of its external debt is in USD, Euro and Yen which obviously becomes harder to repay as the T.Lira depreciates).

[@windplayer1361]

@ minute 23, where are they going to get the money? They'll push for more unions then require them (pension requirement) to invest in "safe" assets.

[@hawtwax]

Did he release a book about this? I can’t seem to find anything. Would love to read more

[@crakatinni]

His latest book has lots of information in it

[@user-wr4yl7tx3w]

That’s what happens when you have a historian look at economics. Math is lacking so rigor is lacking. But assertions are abundant.

[@georgeholloway3981]

Would you be able to mention which of his assertions would have been shown to be incorrect with maths?

[@ChrisKChandler]

​@@georgeholloway3981 - I doubt it. It's easier and more fun to make vague, insubstantial critiques so people can confirm their own bias and get on with their lives. "Criticisms" like this one - ironically - aren't valid because they themselves aren't rigorous.

[@spadeespada9432]

If all information is in the price explain ... 1994 - 1/8th of an Oz of Weed was $35 (+/-$5) in North Jersey 2024 - $25 - $50, the range is quality & marketing. Note: the quality is higher now (2022 - 24) as a starting point than any point before 2001 or after 2008. How has quality improved? Availability is unchanged and legality has not impacted price.

[@mariavonegidy112]

seems that the price of weed has deteriorated in real terms, the only factor to consider seems legality.. the more lenient the law, the less risk, the price drops ? is that not why prices are stagnant ?

[@spadeespada9432]

@@mariavonegidy112 No, because the price drop precedes the legal change. But that was true at one time. The change in CO - 2014 and CA - '16 did affect prices for a time.

[@1ireneaustin]

I was not able to come away with any actionable knowledge. Anyone else???

[@suckers0]

I found many e.g. 1 [supply vs demand] - look at growth in power needs (Data Centres, developing nations, EVs...) - all need copper: Supply side - copper shortage forecast as supply is lower than demand=invest in copper miners. 4 [incentives] Politicians/Govts prioritise being re-elected, not doing the right thing - their jobs depend upon it. So if faced with high debt and thus a choice between a balanced budget, inflation or default which will they choose? History (see e.g. 1970s) suggests inflation wins over cutting expenditure or raising taxes. 8 [yield] don't invest to chase a high yield e.g. a high yielding equity may have a DV that's not sustainable. DV will be cut, resulting in loss of income and decline in share price. Many, many more.

[@1ireneaustin]

@@suckers0 well thank you so much for that considerate and informative review. I really appreciate it!

[@teaadvice4996]

First step: have rich parents Second step: be rich

[@crakatinni]

Step 1. Work hard Step 2. Research Step 3. Don't chase too much yield with the left over

[@paullever9219]

So if you calculate the returns from stock and or bonds, around 4-12% p.a., for the last 20 years, deduct the inflation rate of around ( my opinion) 14-20%, just check your rent, mortgage, power or food bill if you have any doubt to what the current inflation rate is…you are in my opinion not even hedging….I looked into theasus for about the last 5 years and found bitcoin has had the highest returns over any 4 year period….do you own homework, someone’s Nobel Prize isn’t paying your bills…Take care…

[@friarnewborg9213]

Is there a Rule of LAW? Ask Mr T. that question about NY City

[@DexterHaven]

I know someone is legit when they talk about supply. Supply is demand, as I like to say, as in a farmer's supply of wheat will dictate, after its sale, his demand for meat and livestock, say.

[@tengchuankhoo6585]

Napier is more entertaining than interesting

[@shannon-daygrant8754]

re: 22 ish ... yes, whether a man, woman...any human, shall we say, would be impartial...

[@puggleski6097]

Countries that impose sanctions on other political systems, often end up as economies which suffer the brunt of retaliatory sanctions. Can the US mkt afford to remain solvent in the face of such a rational response by China ? As for investments in stock mkts of other countries .. let's consider the opposite side. Why would a country allow an entity of another country to invest in their stock mkts unless they are absolutely sure that the investment isn't actually .. DEBT ? Thirdly, 2008 was a time when people did lose everything. Before that, in 1999. After that, in 2013-14. In different regions of the world, not all at once, but pretty horrific anyway. So, the belief that it's the rule of law coming between someone and their bankruptcy is really quite flawed.

[@fsaldan1]

I learned a lot from this video but I disagree that governments do not have to inflate to deal with debt. Russell had some of the opium of the people: he is extrapolating the past. The US and Britain managed to deal with high debt/GDP ratios after WWII without hyperinflation, but now they cannot. Reasons: 1) properly accounted (including Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare), debt/GDP is 1000% now, 2) Populism has decidively won its battle against the forces of fiscal conservatism: now both the Republican and Democratic parties are fierce advocates of fiscal profligacy, 3) the enemy is no longer a centrally planned economy, but a mostly market economy, 4) the environment and natural resources are a much more serious problem, given that population and GDP are much higher. Argentina was wealthier than Switzerland and France in 1920. The US is going to follow a similar path. Because that is what the American peopke will vote for, just like the Argentines did.

[@yossarianmnichols9641]

I totally agree with one point. In a police state with no free elections, there are no safe investments.

[@fhollhuber1622]

Disagree on democracy: That is where you vote on taxes!

[@johnthompson9318]

Chinese currency is not pegged to USD

[@heinzgassner1057]

If we like it or not: The upcoming changes in society and economy might - in alignment with Amara‘s law - be much bigger than we can imagine right now. What about 100‘s of millions, even billions of young and smart people opting out from the outdated systems of hopelessly indebted nation states and join newly emerging, global ‘network communities becoming network states‘. This can get such a dynamic that no tanks, no airplane-carriers will be able to stop it. The current global governance systems are to us like teenagers forced wearing his/her childhood shoes, no longer feasible in our age of probably irreversible globalization and in coping with the impact and threats of modern technologies. Of course this can trigger moving into the wrong direction with tech corporations taking over the world. Therefore it will be crucial to work on protecting the rule of law and human rights in this next phase of the digital transformation, requiring a ‚Next Generation Internet‘ based on open source, decentralization and self-sovereign identity. Some signs of hope are popping up in latest EU strategy papers, but this will require each and every ‘humanist’ to become active very rapidly, otherwise we will end up in 2084 or a Mad Max world.

[@PazLeBon]

lol so wont happen :)

[@boggy81]

anybody subscribes to his newsletter ? Would I find the list of the markets with CAPE < 10 there where there'll be no communism,war, nor currency is entering new regime ? :)

[@somejohndoe3004]

🪶

[@joegage1255]

10 times CAP? What the heck dos that mean??

[@suckers0]

It's CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio).

[@psikeyhackr6914]

There is no Nobel Prize in Economics. Alfred Nobel did not create any such thing. The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was created by some Swedish bank in the 1960s. Of course using Nobel's name was just a coincidence.

[@psikeyhackr6914]

Is ignoring the depreciation of durable consumer goods and not talking about planned obsolescence part of the "Olde Rules?" What is NDP, Net Domestic Product? GDP is Grossly Distorted Propaganda

[@readtheticker]

President Xi can change one of two things the off shore yuan or GOLD. The world will no do well with a cheaper yuan. China will do better with gold at +3000USD Why cause the own a nationally and individually. Higher gold means pressure on USD. Higher gold does not fuel higher CPIs around the world

[@drscopeify]

It's not that easy, China has hundreds of millions of working people and a huge services sector linked to it, which produces more goods than Chinese people can buy as a result China must export the goods around the world. So if you make the Yuan more expensive and the Dollar weaker China will find it harder to export those goods which could lead to deflation. Due to culture, history, geography and other reasons most Chinese people live in apartments in cities or small rural homes, both of these groups do not consume much goods while in the USA most people live in private homes in suburban areas which has a massive ability to consume goods and services so the USA and China are like 2 perfect pieces of a puzzle they fit together 100% perfectly. The USA cannot make enough goods which is why it had big inflation in the 1970s-80s and 2020s and China needs an export market to sustain it's economy. In the future the USA will try and diversify importing goods from other countries than just China but this will cost more = inflation and China will also try and diversify away from the USA but this will cost much more meaning less profit and the rise and fall of demand will be much more aggressive and dangerous. In my own personal view, the USA and China are a perfect relations and in the end, will return back to each other as they need each other.

[@lucascampini8713]

b

[@satoshidownunder]

Enter Bitcoin

[@ProgressiveEconomicsSupporter]

It seemed an interesting talk, until he tells that the state gets its money from peoples savings. That is dumb and wrong!!! Even war bonds were never meant to finance war costs!!! Please dont talk about things that you seemingly dont understand.

[@moumouzel]

He is clearly clueless about some of the things he talks about.

[@tragicslip]

please elaborate

[@user_375a82]

I think all economists are in the bamboozle game, that's what's nice about a good AI because they are clearer.

[@hugopagecroft8455]

Such as? Empty criticism is pointless.

[@sonuga]

Some? - I agree.