Bulk Up Ursaluna sweeps OU!

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Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 28

@shadowz2005 18 күн бұрын

Why did you put 8 defense on the luna? if you go 252 hp you hit the benchmark to be divisible by 16 and heal 1 more from leftovers/terrain. Do you need the defense for something specific?

@pinkacross2042 18 күн бұрын

Nah I was just being absent-minded, good point!

@whaloob 18 күн бұрын

1:42:14 your opponent is super weak to Lucha. If you SD and Ace switches, they get cleaned up by Lucha-the only thing that can take a hit is Lando-T, which does a measly 29-34% if jolly max attack thanks to grassy seed and lucha’s rock neutrality, while getting 2HKO’d by +1 Lucha’s acro. You had tera to power through rbolt, so long as you could ensure you were at +2 or greater against it. Even banded weavile’s ice shard does just 45-54%. As such, that turn was nearly a pure 50/50 for your opponent. The situation is worse for them if you successfully encore ace into court change, because Weavile is removed from the picture and CC guaranteed oneshots rbolt after rocks meaning at +2 a predict dpulse doesn’t threaten to stop the sweep. But the hole Hawlucha punches in their team even if they switch on your SD instead is large enough that you probably win anyway, so it’s only a lightly weighted 50/50. In general, before you declare that a play is completely stupid because of something you threatened to do, but did not do, think about what happens to your opponent if they respect your threat and get that turn wrong in the process. In this case, they were absolutely boned if they got that turn wrong and couldn’t afford to give encore the respect you felt it deserved.

@pinkacross2042 18 күн бұрын

Actually, almost every Raging Bolt set can enter and take a hit. Furthermore, you're not considering the game state at all-- my opponent was in a dominant position, which makes taking huge risks (like staying in with Cinderace) generally a bad idea. That turn was not a 50/50 at all. You're more than welcome to critique my playing / analysis, which is certainly incorrect sometimes, but your tone is not welcome at all.

@whaloob 18 күн бұрын

@pinkacross2042 let me begin by saying that the tone I intended was definitely not the tone that reads from my post, for which I apologize. I study a lot of game theory, and I think what I intended to be purely analytical came off as harsh or critical. I know you to be a fantastic player, far better than myself, I just thought this particular turn was worth taking a deep dive into. With that said, if you’ll humor me analyzing this turn in more detail, things get pretty interesting. TL;DR at the bottom-I would understand not wanting to read all this-but let me make extraordinarily clear that I have not in fact failed to “consider the game state”. If anything, I’ve spent more time than anyone ever should thinking about this gamestate. Rbolt has a 62.5% chance to die to +2 CC from full if it’s the booster energy max speed max spatk set that seems to be all the rage these days. The smogon set with 64/28 defenses still dies 18.75% of the time-not likely, but worth mention. Something like bold 252/252+ lefties/boots rbolt doesn’t actually even kill with tclap, and not even with dpulse vs -1 lucha, although it of course doesn’t have to opt for prio if it’s willing to take damage, and if it can catch you not using tera ground, it can tbolt to OHKO. So if rbolt switches in and you SD, even with bulkier rbolt you’re definitely still in the driver’s seat-you present another “50/50” (not exactly 50/50 between each option for either player, but certainly an important turn where every move comes with big risks for your opponent) in that if you tera ground as they tbolt or tclap, you essentially win the game on the spot; if they dpulse on your tera + cc, they’ll lose rbolt in 2 turns and easily rkill with weavile, resulting in a favorable-but-not-game-winning trade of rbolt for hawlucha (your best wincon in this game) and tera; if they dpulse and you don’t tera, tclap next turn still fears encore and so that next turn still lends itself to divergent results, with either lucha going down to a low health rbolt, rbolt going down to a low health lucha who is subsequently rkilled by weav, or rbolt being forced out due to encore pp stalling tclap and allowing free setup (or encore letting someone else in for free, since weavile switching in without being attacked would foil your setup anyway); if they tbolt or tclap and you don’t tera, tclap is extremely favorable as it oneshots lucha unless rbolt is straight up bold lefties, and tbolt is still slightly favorable as well as it oneshots lucha while rbolt lives on low hp. With less bulky rbolt, CC is a real threat to oneshot, and so dpulse is a lot less appealing for your opponent. The good news is that max spatk booster rbolt oneshots -1 lucha with dpulse, should it decide to risk the roll rather than the tera ground or the immediate encore and end up living the CC (which the 64/28 set does 81.25% of the time as well, making it the scariest version of rbolt for you as it is likely to live while oneshotting with dpulse, although despite this set being the listed smogon set I swear I almost never see it). You also carry the threat of another SD, which allows you to live dpulse 81.25% of the time by foregoing the spdef drop while being immune to tclap; combined with tera, you can punish tbolt as well, although you are rkilled by weavile if they do dpulse. Of course, we don’t know the rbolt set at this turn, and our opponent doesn’t know our lucha tera type. If we’re tera electric, rbolt and weavile together have a harder time stopping us. If they have a little bulk and are still modest booster, lucha can only ever hope to trade and it has to dodge a tclap (either by getting turns right or by expending tera) just to do that. At this turn, they may be more convinced that lucha is a threat than you are. Which brings us back to Ace v Lucha. The main point you make that I dispute is the idea that your opponent did not need to take risks/go for reads here or that your opponent was in a dominant position. Lucha could pose serious trouble for your opponent if they get this turn wrong, depending on their sets-a factor they know and you can only speculate at the time this turn happens. Put another way, they may not have a way to *avoid* taking big risks on this turn. If Lucha really is a massive threat, then this turn is close to a 50/50-if you SD as they swap to rbolt or lando or something, you just win, but you just win a little easier if you encore ace into court change since you end up with rocks up, while encoring as they switch or SDing as they wisp are both similar results in which your Lucha is more or less neutralized. If Lucha isn’t quite so massive of a threat (which mostly hinges on the correct rbolt set for the situation), then sure, staying in is a bit confusing, because getting encored into court change is still bordering on instant loss, while switching to rbolt leads to a much more palatable worst case scenario. The most important set detail here though is the rbolt set, which is the detail your opponent is guaranteed to know while you can only guess, and going a couple turns further in, we see burned +2 Lucha do 53% to a booster rbolt-consistent with no bulk rbolt, and impossible against 64/28 rbolt. In other words, your opponent has reason to believe that tera ground Lucha wins the game 100% of the time if you encore court change, and 62.5% of the time on the spot if you SD on the switch out, with about the same odds of winning if they burn you on the SD, switch on the encore, or live the CC, meaning your opponent should wisp there about 40% of the time and switch about 60% of the time. TL;DR: the play your opponent made is a reasonably likely outcome that follows directly from following the optimal policy of switching about 60% of the time and wisping around 40% of the time.

@waaaaaaah 17 күн бұрын

@@whaloobConsider the context, dude. Remember that this happened at the tail end of a long laddering session, people tend to not have the time nor the stamina to fully consider every possibility and usually end up having an incomplete picture with a few poor assumptions thrown in. Saying "bad play" in that context and it not actually being a bad play or completely meaning it is completely normal, and knowing the context it makes your closing statement needlessly condescending. Pinka can't play perfectly and make perfect considerations 100% of the time and if all you pointed out was his mistaken assumptions it would be more than fine, very constructive and appreciated even, but it is incredibly rude to give such condescending "advice" to him like you did in your last paragraph, as if he actually didn't know something so obvious and wasn't simply in a situation where he didn't value the game enough to put as much thought into it as you did. I guess my point is, while your analysis is more than welcome, your insinuations on Pinkacross' character, intentional or not, really aren't. It's an off-hand comment on one game, it's, and I usually hate to say this because it's needlessly reductive, but in this case it really is "not that deep."

@whaloob 17 күн бұрын

@@waaaaaaah Hop off pink’s dick man, I understand it’s a long laddering session and I don’t mean to insinuate that Pinkacross has “bad character”, it’s, as you say, “not that deep”. All I am saying is sure, leaving Ace in to potentially get encored is really risky, but so is the allegedly smart play of switching to Rbolt as the opponent also loses on the spot 62.5% of the time and trades about evenly the other 37.5% of the time. Importantly, the exact numbers here hardly matter-what matters is that Lucha *looks really good here*. Why do I care? It’s not like I never misread a situation, I do it all the time or else I’d be the best to ever do it. I’m not immune to tilting from getting a turn wrong either. Honestly, the reason I care is that I love this game and the theory behind making optimized plays, and I want to share that theory and the qualititative ideas behind that theory with people-it’s not even common knowledge that what optimal play actually *is* is assigning certain probabilities to every action you have, and then sampling that probability distribution (in this example, Pink’s opponent should wisp about 40% of the time and switch to rbolt about 60% of the time). Did I do the best job of sharing that in a way that was kind or empathetic? I did not, which is something I’ve already admitted and apologized for. But jeez dude, I didn’t kick an orphaned puppy, I gave advice that didn’t come off right. I don’t need an essay from someone else telling me what I’ve already said I did wrong.

@YaBoySheeny 13 күн бұрын

AV luna is actually amazing lmao you wrote it off too easily. Also trick scarf cress is a fun trick room setter for luna. Just hard finding other mons worth using in TR

@YaBoySheeny 13 күн бұрын

The reason people are saying sinistcha is because they prolly played me on the ladder and they are correct lol. It can use TR for itself and for luna cause shadowball is the easiest bait ever.

@jamiegetty7011 21 күн бұрын

Do you have a playlist of the music you used?

@pinkacross2042 18 күн бұрын

It's a GlitchXCity pokemon battle music! I should probably post it in the description...

@jacksnell8875 19 күн бұрын

Classic Pinka, gets outplayed then says it was an awful play by the opponent

@manny55taqos 19 күн бұрын

Dude who stays in on a wood hammer rilla when alomolola is key to stop iron crown

@jacksnell8875 18 күн бұрын

@@manny55taqos ever heard of predicting

@waaaaaaah 17 күн бұрын

@@jacksnell8875You can only really say it was an outplay in hindsight though. If Pinka wood hammered and they switched, you could still say he got "outplayed." It's a 50/50, Pinka chose wrong, opponent chose right, it happens.

@jacksnell8875 17 күн бұрын

@@waaaaaaah yeah it happens but don't react by saying it was an awful play by the opponent, that's just arrogant

@waaaaaaah 17 күн бұрын

@@jacksnell8875 imo it's not really all that deep, it's just an offhand comment made in a situation where he's frustrated and the opponent isn't in a position to hear anything he says. I don't think it's realistic to expect someone, especially during a laddering session where your stamina is definitely getting worn down and your state of mind is getting a tad volatile, to say "Wow my opponent outplayed me... Need to do better." after your sound analysis of the game state falls through only because you misplayed the "I know he knows and he knows I know he knows and I know he knows I know he knows and..." game a little. Trash talk like this always happens in online games, and since the opponent can't hear it it really harms nobody. Look at 99% of Pokemon youtubers with streams or videos going on more than an hour long. At the start, they'll likely be more charitable, praise their opponents, etc. Nearing the end, they'll start trash talking, saying the opponent "genuinely threw", etc. Etc. It's the kind of rationalizations your brain makes up for you when your stamina is wearing out and you need an excuse for why you lost. As long as it happens in a low stakes environment like ladder, and you don't whine about it on and onnnn... it's excusable. tldr, Pinka doesn't actually mean it, he's just frustrated. In a laddering session, stuff like this happens, you get tired, you trash talk, it's whatever. I don't think it's wise to take stuff like that personally lol. Even less wise to use it as evidence to call people "arrogant."