Can China rise peacefully? John Mearsheimer | Tom Switzer

As China converts its growing economic power into military power, it will seek to dominate Asia the way the U.S. has dominated the western hemisphere since the 19th century.
Washington will go to great lengths to prevent China from seeking regional hegemony. The tensions over tariffs, Taiwan and Hong Kong are just the beginning of a deteriorating Sino-American relationship.
Australian foreign-policy elites seem to think that they can either wish away the intense security competition or that, if the conflict materialises, Canberra can sit on the sidelines: China and the US can duke it out while Australia is safe, secure and prosperous. Perhaps, but this is not how international politics works.
John Mearsheimer is professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (W.W. Norton, 2001).
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[@nmew6926]

The real Q should be: *CAN US DECLINE PEACEFULLY*

[@TurkeysGoGobble]

Answer: Almost certainly not

[@accountantthe3394]

@@TurkeysGoGobble going down kicking and screaming

[@motogwe]

@@TurkeysGoGobble definitely not.

[@mm8693]

😂😂😂

[@diggajkunal504]

From Nepal No

[@mystictraveler8642]

The headline should be "Can US ever be peaceful with China's Rise"

[@kamikaze1888]

you nailed it.

[@jasonleetaiwan]

The answer is obviously no.

[@nayanmalig]

Google Chinese exclusion act .... Enmity with chinese is in American DNA

[@samthesuspect]

Tell that to Taiwan

[@hongmama1245]

@@samthesuspect Enemy of my enemy is my friend, that's what US is doing here. China was in the same position during the cold war. Its just politics... Human rights and freedom are just lip services.

[@wattlebough]

Aussie here. Guys we like to talk ourselves up a bit too much sometimes. We are not a middle power by any stretch. The markers of middle power status include more than just economic output. Population size, GDP and military power are all critical inputs that decide international status. True middle powers are the likes of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. These countries all have populations well in excess of 60 million people with the exception of South Korea, are global manufacturing powerhouses and have sizeable military, naval and air forces. Australia can not compete with these countries in any of these metrics. The Commonwealth of Australia is a light middle power at absolute best, but in reality is a heavy light-power. We shouldn’t be in the habit of kidding ourselves that we’re more than we actually are.

[@listen2meokidoki264]

Power corrupts. So what you're implying is, POWER is everything. kzbin.info/www/bejne/aqusoHiioJilaMU I suspect Australia's greatest POWER is isolation. And the ethos to do good. But even if we went all out for hegemony we'd fall flat on our stupid faces. We can't build a submarine. But it gets worse. We can't LEARN we can't build a submarine.

[@wattlebough]

@@listen2meokidoki264 I’m not sure how you got that out of what was written. It’s not code, I was just saying that people who try to classify Australia as a middle power are overstating our power. I’m not saying that power is anything good or bad, just observing Australia’s status in the world realistically.

[@listen2meokidoki264]

@@wattlebough I think you're basically a 5th Columnist. You're probably Chinese being paid by the evil CCP. To me it is you who is over stating that people are overstating Australia's international influence. By implication, the main purpose of your comment is to find fault and belittle. Australians care little about influencing the World. But we do like the idea that the South western Pacific is not abused by China as a maniacal play thing. And instead, left in peace. kzbin.info/www/bejne/lYKmaKiDpJaohrM

[@wattlebough]

@@listen2meokidoki264 Ok well let me be crystal clear that I am highly concerned about the rise of China and the fact that it is developing an expeditionary high end navy that will in roughly a decade have a marine amphibious assault capability on par with the USMC. And an aircraft carrier fleet that will be second only to the USN in power within 5 years. It is my belief that the Royal Australian Navy should be the ADFs number one force and that the Australian tax payer should be prepared to fund an at least 3% GDP defence budget to double the size of our AWD fleet and fit the LHDs to operate at least a dozen or more F35Bs each, and Australia must have a Ballistic Missile Defence Shield, whether Aegis Ashore or THAAD and the AWDs should be equipped with the SM3 missile. These would bring Australia closer to being a middle power militarily, but until we come close to this with defence firepower we remain a light middle power at best. Just calling a spade a spade. Would you prefer that I BS and say everything’s fine there’s nothing to worry about? Australia was complacent and caught unprepared for global war in 1939 and I’m sick of the complacency of successive governments towards defence since the 1980s. Don’t let paranoia get the better of you in assuming everyone whose opinion you don’t like is a 5th Columnist. And paid? I wish someone would pay me to talk crap on KZbin. I just like debate and discussion. Clear as mud?

[@listen2meokidoki264]

@@wattlebough No. I don't recall you saying the term "middle power" was set in terms of military power. A middle power country could (as I tend to assume) refer to the power to influence other countries for beneficial outcomes. And not necessarily mutually beneficial. That Australia might not extend largess to Madagascar doesn't mean it's not a middle power. As I say to family, tell me first what the subject is before I have to listen you the preamble that usually lasts 5 minutes. STOP. What are we talking about, I tend to shout in desperation.

[@Userkzb20253]

The real question is :can the west let China peacefully?

[@wussrestbrook1200]

@@flowerpower8722 become the dominant power

[@jooppoojk2356]

let the world you mean?

[@denden818]

@@Myanmartiger921 they're delicious, try it

[@beastmode8203]

@@wussrestbrook1200 we would rather die in a nuclear war.

[@mudassarhassanali7554]

No, western colonial gang of looters nation always try to make sure no other nation gets the chance to be threathing to wests hegemony.

[@albertli3935]

It is a a pity that most of the China experts had little knowledge of Chinese history and culture, not to mention they all view China with typical wrong Western perspective and analysis. Very few people like Jacques, Kishore or Rudd have good understanding of Chinese philosophy and culture. Learn humbly about Chinese culture, language and history. The world will be a better world if China continues to rise peacefully, just any one who benefits from China, the factory of the world.

[@christophchen6319]

You are absolutely right, but the west will never acknowledge this before they are defeated and learn something from the winner.

[@rap3208]

This guy tries hard to be logical but when it comes to the chinese, he fails because he imposes on the chinese the western mind - that like the americans and european colonizers, China is also like them. China have never been imperial, they are very insular and is only interested in their country and those territories that they lost or consider historically theirs. China have a long history thousands of years long and in most of them, they were very powerful or the most powerful and yet Southeast Asia and asia is not part of China today. If China was like the US or the european colonizers, most of asia would have been China now.

[@DSan-kl2yc]

​@@rap3208 That's not true at all. If the US was like they could have taken much more of the world. And china invaded plenty of places it now considers china. You're giving them a special status that seems unearned by history

[@DSan-kl2yc]

What in China's history makes you think that. Like any other country, they took over areas to make a country. They forced other countries to bow to them. They're pushing people now for resources.

[@yellowbird1170]

Tell the people of East Timor. Australia stealing 2 billion USD of oil from them. Bad intentions indeed.

[@vangcruz4442]

This is what a good neighbor do. They steal from you. A neighbor that buy what you sell, is EVIL.

[@jacpratt8608]

@@vangcruz4442 you got it. but we'll all get around it somehow.

[@jacpratt8608]

@@vangcruz4442 and you too are evil to sell to them.

[@singingmachine2336]

Whether you agree or disagree with the man, he's a realist and he doesn't sugarcoat reality

[@Hahaha41241]

Is paranoid horrible hegemon

[@stephenlight647]

If we had more like him in the State Department, there would have been far fewer dead collected over the past 60 odd years as a result of the crazy adventures the US tends to pursue.

[@muhammaDEsmustafa]

​@John Smith His reality is just fine, your perception of reality has been polluted and distorted by western mainstream media that you can longer have thoughts of your own, you can only receive information, ideas, judgments, opinions. Take care of your brain, you only get one.

[@ridleyalexis3165]

@@stephenlight647 in

[@DSan-kl2yc]

He's dogmatic. That's not true realism.

[@gordonsek]

Cooperation is always better and superior than confrontation to improve the standard of livings of the Australians, Americans , Chinese and Aseans.

[@Sththy]

Unfortunately, John is right. Game theory supports this. It’s always lose-lose if there is no trust or higher authority.

[@gordonsek]

@@Sththy ; John is a jealous White Racist and he has never been to war personally but he wants you and your children to die for his jealousy and anger.

[@a11u45]

It's not better for the nation's opposed to China like the US and Australia, China's rise means the decline of the west due to a relative increase in Chinese power, so the west is shooting itself in the foot if it decides to cooperate with China in most cases. There are areas of cooperation, such as climate chang, but these areas of cooperation are the exception, not the norm.

[@JonK...]

@@gordonsek The race card is unhelpful and here it's irrelevant and delusional.

[@gordonsek]

@@JonK... : Cooperation and respect between USA and China is the best solution to man kind.

[@aaronbaldwin2380]

China rises peacefully, on the other hand, competitors rise angrily. Jealousy is the words, no further comments.

[@magnusm4]

"Rises peacefully" define peacefully. The chinese and intellectuals didn't get slaughtered peacefully under Mao. Stealing and global espionage isn't exactly peaceful either. The true hero is Germany and South Korea. Bombed to the foundation, broken economy, a ravaged people and a ruined destroyed political system. Yet despite Germany being the big villain and having the east being choked and occupied by the soviets. They still managed to rise and become a major center of economy in Europe. South Korea was even worse at the end of the Korean war. Split in half and EVERYTHING was decimated. Factories, homes, people it was a slaughter. And yet they managed to build up their industries, innovate and become one of the biggest economies. Without oppressing the people, without attacking and spying on other countries in mass, without breaking every rule, without constantly making deals with every dictator under the sun, no concentration camps and nowhere near the many controversial attacks and kidnappings China has done. Just look at Hong Kong. Is that a peaceful use of the military? The building of artificial islands in the south china sea, the attempted entering of India and causing skirmishes that cost the lives of 20 Indians and 43 Chinese, was that peaceful?

[@nayanmalig]

Lol colonial sour grape crybaby

[@claudiocarrera9552]

@@nayanmalig ccp dog, totalitarian police regimes always fail!

[@raccoonious4038]

​@@magnusm4 I'll add that Germany was already an economic power-house until the WW2 (which was what allowed them to start a world war in the first place) They lost suffered brain drain (most notably to the US or South America somewhere) but the foundation was already there. Korea went under brutal Japanese rule. The little of what Japan left behind was mostly in the North (Korea) and destroyed anyway by the war. 10% of the population killed in the process.

[@Cubs3344]

@@magnusm4 china has yet been involved in any military conflict in 70years, whereas the US has been constantly mingling into other countries' internal conflicts. The US has more than 40 military bases throughout the world. Who is the real threat? Do some research and comment.

[@macrosense]

China has been much more peaceful than the United States for the last 50 years. I realize most Americans have very limited attention spans and memories, but it would be nice if most of us had some basic level of self-consciousness when it comes to international relations.

[@beastmode8203]

It's about being number one or war.

[@adamali5590]

China has been peacful beacau the united states is so strong and can kick your ass if you are not peacful

[@mikehunt6218]

The bigger and more powerful China gets the more belligerent it gets, there is no way in hell if China was the number one world power that it would be better than the United States especially when it comes to human Rights or anybody's rights for that matter

[@Hing.W.Dickson]

What the hell you mentioned about human rights.. 👀 America have human rights.... !? 😮 Are you sure .... !!!??? Think twice before you comments . America especially the President are not origin blood .. invaded , killed innocence people , torture in the middle East without any evidence ... These you called human rights fu..k😤😡😡😡😡

[@jchanmcse]

Agreed!

[@xiaoliangtube]

It’s not your fight l, Australia. But feel free to participate and pay a heavy price for it.

[@lukethomas7123]

Australia does not want to have a hegemonic power in their hemisphere. So it is their fight. So they will align with the US. Its pretty simple really.

[@kamikaze1888]

@@lukethomas7123 like the U.S is not a hegemonic power in their hemisphere.

[@davidchang9228]

@@lukethomas7123 Right now Australia already has a hegemonic power in their hemisphere (i.e. the US with naval bases in S Korea, Japan, Singapore).

[@lukethomas7123]

@@kamikaze1888 listen carefully to the video again please. The US is a hegemonic power in its own hemisphere, giving them freedom to roam. Dominace from a distant america is preferable to dominance from a closer China.

[@kamikaze1888]

@@lukethomas7123 let's not pretending all right? Australians are predominantly white, who consider themselves as Europeans in Asia. It has very little population comparing to its Asian neighbours and has history of being invaded by Japan. Hence it desperately needs protection from the the white leader, U.S, nothing else. The core concern here is race.

[@devondevon4366]

13:32 'The United States doesn't tolerate peer competitor' meaning there is room only for 1 number one.

[@jooppoojk2356]

Is that what most of the dictators said!?

[@jeffreylo9203]

Whether China can grow peacefully would depend on the western powers. It’s true, no one knows what would happen in 10-15 years time but we have centuries of history to help us to gauge.

[@stephenlight647]

It depends on the definition of peaceful. I mean Hong Kong has been largely peaceful of late….

[@Kuasarakyat2]

Without US sowing war peace is everywhere

[@stephenlight647]

@@Kuasarakyat2 I personally would like the US to become MUCH less involved in the world. Let the locals settle their own affairs. You think that would be peaceful. I don’t care, but I doubt it. Mostly because all of those locals are still human beings. Humans have proven to be not particularly peaceful no matter what their origin.

[@haceneamrani5894]

AU citizen here...the pragmatic question you have to ask is: the same way US has raised, China will raise... did US raised peacefully? how many tremendous US destructions has caused on global scale. I m confident China is more peaceful than blood thirst of US and EU allies..

[@rpgbb]

China cannot rise peacefully because of Han supremacy, Chinese don’t have, don’t understand the concept of equality. This is why Asian countries don’t want a Chinese led Asia or why Chinese didn’t accept a Japanese led Asia. They always need to be the top dog. America always plays the equality card, one could say it’s hypocritical but it still works

[@mrshangpa]

Prof Mearsheimer has been brutally honest and realistic. I've always respected him. I can only hope that he is wrong about China, that there might be other possible models of great power politics, other than the American way. For one thing, even if China would seek its own version of Monroe Doctrine, it would have to be drastically different from the American one, simply because China's geopolitical location within the Eurasian continent is totally different from that of North America. Would it be not possible if China find in a multipolar balance against US's unipolar hegemony a more realistic option than an old US style of regional hegemony in East Asia? Why would it be the fate of human societies that democracies can only survive under a hegemonic world order? Btw, why CIS has to ruin their otherwise valuable occasios with that libelous and ridiculous Falun Gong practitioner? She represents the one kind of drugs that the West has got addicted to, just for some useless hallucinations.

[@chanhungkee7141]

No reply intended. The US phylosophy is well known to many.

[@inkbold8511]

His wrong about China and continue to be wrong about it.

[@supahsmashbro]

I agree with your points and I have to say that that's where mearsheimer gets it wrong. He assumes every country would act like America if it had the capabilities. I absolutely do not think this is true for China

[@lmvcnn]

I am not a falun gong practitioner, but I think it linked to religion believe freedom, free speech and basic human freedom of ordinary people.

[@supahsmashbro]

@@lmvcnn it's actually just a self loathing, white/west worshiping cult. which is probably why you like it actually

[@wilsonluytan212]

There is the urgency for Australia to invite Martin Jacque to share his view about China and Asia. Listening to the supercilious Mearsheimer without also listening the other side is not wise.

[@mrshangpa]

Both men are honest and worth listening to. I respect Prof Mearsheimer, who has been brutally honest about US's intentions, and the ridiculous nature of "liberal world order". But I can only hope he is wrong about China, that the "great power politics" don't have to follow the US way.

[@riceball4u172]

@@mrshangpa China was the top dog in aisa for 5000 years, it focus on trade just like now and didn't invade any neighbors

[@nimmiragavan8290]

@@riceball4u172 And China once closed the doors and retreated inwards. If it does that, it will take a while for the rest of the world to recover from the damage. It will also damage China, so I imagine that drastic step wont be taken unless it sees an existential threat looming that will leave it worse off than the retreat within closed walls.

[@tongkiatkoh3457]

@@mrshangpa ..

[@FOLIPE]

@@riceball4u172 lmao. The neighbors it invaded aren't neighbors anymore, they are called provinces.

[@moebees3060]

The proper question is can the u.s. decline peacefully.

[@hlim431]

Back to John's presentation about the US single-handedly beating Imperial Japan... Russia did most of the fighting in Europe lost 24 million, In Asia China lost 20 million lives, ROC + Communist Chinese military losses were 3.5-10.0 million and it cost Japan 2-3 million lives. I think that had a pretty considerable influence on Japan losing WW2. In contrast USA lost less than 0.5m... It is SUCH a shame an organisation like CIS who wants to be seen as unbiased would invite a Falun Gong cult member to instil her own brand of hardly-subtle China-hatred poorly disguised as a "vote of thanks".

[@mikecamacho1934]

Wait up... Did you just take one argument and turn it into another one smh. How does the US beating Japan have anything to do with Russia doing most of the fighting against the Germans? Japan was having considerable success against China. The Bomb was the single biggest impact of Japan capitulating. And Japan surrendered to the US because it didn't want to surrender to the USSR.

[@olympiahendrix4392]

@@mikecamacho1934 When I press the like button, a zero is still there. Something is going on with the like button here! I liked your comment!

[@netizencapet]

I like that you brought up the facts that so many fail to repeat which rain on the self congratulatory parade of the US vis-a-vis WW2. I think the fact that the highly ambitious plan of Los Alamos actually worked - and shocked the world, including most Americans at the time who were in the service - did a lot to explain why Americans often fall into the bad habit of thinking the US is a major success militarily. That, and it's almost supernaturally high level of military spending. I object to your objection of CSIS inviting a Fa Lun Gong member for an interview. I'm against the super counter-productive arms race and futile China containment strategy, which will only fast-track the decline of the US by exhausting it faster. However, we need to allow the great horrors of totalitarian or simply brutal governments to be exposed - wherever they occur.

[@colinwong677]

Two evil countries are sleeping together threatening China at its doorstep. Throughout Centuries China never invade any countries. Good to teach evil Japan a good lesson including the past killing millions Chinese

[@nyalarhotep]

@@mikecamacho1934 Lol. Russia did more fighting with Japan as well. The number of defeated Japanese soldiers during the Soviet invasion of Manchuria over several weeks topples the whole number US forces defeated over the course of the whole war.

[@liyang2047]

Do you understand the Chinese saying 以小人之心度君子之腹？

[@luckyma590]

There is only one fight feild it is econimic. The America is failing.

[@wanfeichim6307]

Haha, you expect the western people understand the meaning of that saying.

[@jsun8064]

Xi definitely is NOT 君子

[@beastmode8203]

@@luckyma590 nope if you haven't noticed 2 years have passed and you were wrong. It will be militarily and it will go nuclear.

[@seanlee3863]

I agree with John's assessment on how the US and western powers have dominated throughout history but I doubt his assumptions that China will mirror the US. why? because: 1. China HAVE acted very very differently throughout history and currently. throughout history, the Europeans were conquerers and colonizers and expansionists while the Chinese were not and never were (despite having some internal wars and being the biggest economy prior 18th century, especially in the 15th century). 2. China has already experienced a peaceful rise. in the past 40 years, China has transformed from a country that's poorer than Africa to the 2nd largest economic power without firing a single bullet or instigated a single regime change...this is unfounded in all the rise of prior superpowers for example the British empire, Japanese empire, American empire, dutch empire.....etc. going all the backt to the roman empire. very bold of him to assume China is the US but asian

[@Spaghetter813]

In the Cold War era, China had invaded Vietnam, India and Tibet. Their troops had fought in Korea and in skirmishes against the USSR. The reason China has not undertaken further military action is due to their analysis of the current situation, not due to some sort of peaceful ideology which they try to sell abroad. If we minimize these smaller historic wars of modern China and call its rise "peaceful", we might as well argue that the rise of Imperial Japan or the US in the 1800 were "peaceful".

[@beastmode8203]

The US is going to go to war with China.

[@allenchen4752]

Sir, first, Tibet has been part of China for thousands of years. The "invade" is not truth. In fact, Chinese are partly from Tibet. The India invaded China but China just fight back and give enough face to them. The Vietnam, and Korea, The USA invade them and China come back after the military movement.@@Spaghetter813

[@JOSEPHWONGAU]

Switzerland able to stay neutral in WWII, Singapore stay neutral now. China consistently communicate focus on trade and business, win-win, betterment of humanity.

[@beastmode8203]

We don't care

[@junfu9452]

Just think of how much economic and human toll this will cost on both sides, it's very clear to everyone: all this struggle for supremacy is a pure tragic and non-sense.

[@Spaghetter813]

The problem is that knowing the other side has the incentive to seek supremacy forces you to seek supremacy to avert the disaster that the other's supremacy would bring.

[@maxdc988]

Can a desperate US decline peacefully? ...should be the question posed instead.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Not possible for War Mongers!

[@beastmode8203]

@@kirstinstrand6292 are you ready for Armageddon?

[@beastmode8203]

Are you ready for Armageddon?

[@queenking3520]

John: the fact that US is so rich that it can fight the forever wars and still be ... American people: 😭 now I know why we don’t have infrastructure as good as China’s and why lots of us are starving

[@happyday2405]

As long as US has this kind of Psycho Professor, then...lots of Americans will continue starving...

[@GETJUSTICE4U]

The US has a $28 trillion budget deficit (national debt underwritten by an the ordinary Americans half of whom are either poverty stricken or living on the breadline alongside the most billionaires in one country (figuratively speaking). Most of this debt is owed to these billionaires the balance to foreign billionaire US bond holders. They reap the interest ($100s billions) off this debt. Its a huge ponzi scheme for transferring money/wealth from the masses to the already obscenely super rich. Note if you don't possess more than a few billion dollars you are not super rich.

[@ALWH1314]

Homeless is taking over my city, racial discrimination is dividing our society more each day and inflation in the last one year is crazy.

[@magnusm4]

Xinjiang? Also they are facing a food crisis. "The United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia are among the top exporters of agriculture commodities to China. Despite its dispute over tariffs with the U.S., China still remains heavily dependent on the United States to meet its food demand. China’s agricultural imports in 2019 were pegged at $13.8 billion (USD), up from $9.1 billion in 2018, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Even during the first quarter of 2020, China imported farm products from the U.S. worth $5.08 billion, while its exports dropped by 17.2 percent in January and February and 6.6 percent in March." - Another famine coming? China struggles to meet basic food demands. thehill dot com. Article. They also still have poverty counties of starving and malnourished people. Estimated to about 100 million. Which isn't much since they're the largest population of any country, while the one child policy of the past is about to bite them hard. On top of failing crops the chinese government, being corrupt liars. Have increased their disputes with other countries such as Iran and Iraq. While increasing their interest in business with South Korea, while being the life line for their arch enemy and fatass dictator north korea.

[@lucasgrey9794]

He seems very out of touch. He also greatly overestimates the capabilities of the U.S military.

[@cscsp]

All empires based on rent seeking usually come to an end. Don't think India and Japan can't threaten Australia.

[@johnchong4690]

More likely Indonesia 260 million .

[@aoeu256]

India, Southeast Asia, China, Japan, Korea should get together and partition Australia since it only has 50 million ppl yet controls a continent of natural resources. I guess everyone hating each other is what allows Australia to use its natural resources to brain drain poor relatively overpopulated nations...

[@prakashthapa9912]

He is brutally honest. I will give you that.

[@johnliang2006]

bandit is talking about civilization

[@username5475]

This turned out way truer than I expected. AUKUS

[@Hahaha41241]

You created that bullshit.

[@kkc2354]

World needs China as balance of power, so US doesn't behave arrogantly. US-China competition shouldn't be military obsession. But instead, work together for the betterment of humanity. China is more interested in spending quadrillions on: ERADICATE POVERTY, REVERSE GLOBAL WARMING, BUILD MINES ON THE MOON. Instead of blowing things up into smoke.

[@gliang9406]

Man, what a honest presentation. At least, Mearsheimer is much better than those who talk about democracy in vain.

[@phamanh4767]

Yeah , those fancy and cheesy words about democracy and freedom

[@lmvcnn]

Democracy is idealism; Mr mearsheimer is realism, Idealism push for a better world, realism pull it down to ground.

[@muhammaDEsmustafa]

​@Andrew L when has the hypocrite west's wars for "democracy"have ever been anything other than wars to assert dominance, destroy emerging opposing powers, and maintain petrodollar hegemony? NONE.

[@eyeamraj]

Very much so An enormous insight into present condition of decaying imperialism maintained by USA and its client states

[@eymeeraosaka2954]

John is asking Australian to go fight a war with China for the US. Not for Australia. Is he willing to let his children or love ones join in the war and come back home in body bags? Of course the rich and powerful in US were exempted from going to Vietnam? As the saying goes, "talking is cheap..." ...Once the body bags starts to pile up only then can one see the fallacy of his argument. Victory or defeat in a war does not depend on fire power alone. ... If ever Australia were to join in the war with the US, it is to contain China. But for the Chinese in China, they are fighting for their survival. Which is more powerful? Furthermore, Australia is geographically close to China wheres the US is more than 3000 miles away? Does it make sense for Australia to make China, your close neighbour an enemy? When push comes to shove, I agree with Prof Hugh White the best strategy for Australia is to stay neutral....Don't allow US nor China to push you around. Pursue your own security and foreign policies for the interest of Australia. This view is also shared by Prof Kishore.

[@natalieseeto3467]

Well said!

[@vilx1308]

It’s not even about if China or US have bad intentions to cause war, just the doubts and questions that if that big guy will hit me with a club when I sleep is enough to cause the war, dark

[@eleanorderbing7406]

He has not qualify his speech. He is too bias

[@vangcruz4442]

The big bully will do her best to stop the one she is bullying so she can continue her old ways. Only this time her lies no longer have the same effects as before. All the others that she bullied before are starting to speak up. Like all bully, her little entourage will still stand behind her until the very end and say, it wasn't me.

[@beastmode8203]

If you haven't noticed that's not what's happening so get ready for war

[@sambucca98]

where can I find this debate between John Mearsheimer and Kevin Rudd that they mentioned?

[@robinhuang3129]

Great talk. Only thing wrong is "single-handedly defeating Imperial Japan". China held down 1 million soldiers in Japan.

[@JM-gj7de]

The only thing China did during that period was roll over like a dog when kicked. No glory in that.

[@vichitvideo6041]

The speaker looks at and understands China with a typical Western mentality which can result in a very wrong idea about the current political and military situation. I do not see that China is competing with the US with a view to replace it to become a new hegemon. China has been trying to put its own house in order and in the process becomes quite rich and powerful, and that created the problem because the US does not like to see that. Bear in mind that for about 40 years now China never fired a single shot outside it's border. It is not an aggressive country by nature and it is better not trying to provoke it.

[@willengel2458]

japan's economy was on the rise in the 80-90s. US saw that as a threat and castrated it with the Plaza Accord. the attempt to slow down or destroy china started before and under Obama with his pivot and TPP. Trump took a different tack with trade war, tech war, and sanctions. US has to be the top dog for the scheme to work, that's why we have 11 carriers and 800 bases.

[@JBfan88]

>. I do not see that China is competing with the US with a view to replace it to become a new hegemon. China's explicit goal is to be the hegemon by 2049.

[@raccoonious4038]

Like Mearsheimer said, it's in Chinese interest to wait (at least 20-30 more years) until they have caught up with the US in terms of economical and military power. My understanding (although limited) of Chinese history says China has been peaceful; the only variable is the century of humiliation. Has it changed Chinese mentality / attitude? Only time will tell. That being said, I also agree that Mearsheimer is looking at this through a western lens. US is afraid that China will do what it had already done to China, because that's the way they think. Will China do the same in the same position? My question to you

[@JBfan88]

@@raccoonious4038 China might never catch up. Their population is gonna take a huge hit in the coming decades. that will affect GDP. >My understanding (although limited) of Chinese history says China has been peaceful; China has been no more or less peaceful than any other great power. Look at a list of the bloodiest wars of all time. Once you get past WWI/WWII, a lot of the wars are Chinese. There are multiple ethnic groups that no longer exist any more because the Qing dynasty committed genocide (the Dzungar genocide is the best example). The idea that China is a peaceful, benevolent great power is pure propaganda.

[@beastmode8203]

He's not trying to tell you it from a Chinese perspective. He's telling you it from a United States perspective. In simple terms what he means is the United States cannot accept second and cannot coexist with China surpassing them as the number one economy in the world. The United States of America would rather die in a nuclear war fighting China and ending all life on Earth than existing with China as the dominant power.

[@sinophysiker]

The guy truly believes what he says. At least give him that.

[@johnl9361]

This guy is a dumbass that is coping hard. China's peaceful rise has already happened. It went from a rural agrarian nation that had to import rice cookers from Japan to a modern, space faring nation in 30 years. All without ever stating any wars. "Well, we don't know if China is going to keep developing, so China's rise is completely theoretical.." Good God. The amount of cope outta this guy is insane.

[@archiekluger6902]

@@johnl9361 k Wumao

[@samthesuspect]

@@johnl9361 China's going to keep rising for about another 40 years, then it's going to have to get a lot more harsh on its citizens when it comes to retirement or the government's going to collapse. The reverse aging pyramid that they brought on themselves with the one child policy might have destroyed their future.

[@johnl9361]

@@samthesuspect oh, boy. So you know what's gonna happen in 40 years? No one knows what's gonna happen in the future. All we can do is look at the past and figure out where we are right now. We may have a vague idea of present trajectory, but that's it. I will say this: people have been predicting a hard landing for China's economy and a general societal collapse since 1989, and so far every one of them have been wrong. However, it is somewhat clever of you to throw your projection out to 40 years as a hedge. Here is a prediction from me: in 40 years, you will suffer some kind of physical ailment.

[@trungnguyen-vc8kc]

Very Interests and Great work.

[@user-uy8gs2tw6h]

The host made me laugh at the beginning. It is clear to those outside Australia that Australia is very willing and blatantly willing to act as a "frontline sentinel" in defending the white Christian world, and sees itself as a "frontline country" against the non-white world.

[@lucasgrey9794]

There is NOTHING "white" or "Christian" about the United States and her disgusting vassals. In fact, the U.S seems to exist purely to dismantle the Greek based civilizations and Christianity. Fun fact: China is more Greek than America ever was.

[@FOLIPE]

Indians and Japanese are white and christians now?

[@user-uy8gs2tw6h]

​@@FOLIPE Regrettably, although Japan is an Asian country, and its citizens and parliament do not think that it is surrounded by pagans, Japan is a semi-colonial colony subdued by the Anglo-Saxon order. It is impossible to produce an independent foreign policy. We can understand that it follows the old White man. India has never claimed that its values are universal values. She pursues a policy of non-alignment. China can understand that she flexibly adjusts its foreign policy according to her own national interests, and therefore does not regard it as an enemy, even in daily trivial quarrels and frictions. On the other hand, when no one is compelled and there may not necessarily be major interests, Australia has participated in every major military operation launched by the white-Christian coalition since World War II, just as crazy as the Crusaders. The intellectual soil that caused this country to take these actions makes us feel puzzled and hesitated.

[@katzorro]

The only Japanese force to land in Australia during World War II was a reconnaissance party that landed in the Kimberley region of Western Australia on 19 January 1944 to investigate reports that the Allies were building large bases in the region.

[@alessandropappalardo9801]

Tom Switzer did an amazing job moderating the Q&A section. Excellent pace and content. The presentation was obviously effective, both on an emotional as well as on an intellectual level, as the flow of questions shows. Main takeaway: “Just don’t bet against me!”. Brilliantly put! Biggest surprise: no one in the audience mentioned Australia’s big leverage. They kept reformulating a leitmotive “why do we have to pick up a side?” Finally, the professor got tired and spelled it out to them😊

[@arcencielc2065]

I found out about John Mearsheimer recently. I love his talks. Is there any other American intellect who is as honest as him when talking about America? Haha.

[@georgekennan6213]

Same! Noam Chomsky is also good tho.

[@beastmode8203]

@@georgekennan6213 not really because Chomsky is more of a doomist.

[@qzhang25]

Some people are still thinking of containing China instead of trying to solve its domestic problem like gun crime, homeless people, broken infrastructure, etc. Considering the future of economic growth is largely in Asia, especially SE Asia. What USA can offer to attract these countries and people to side with USA to contain China? Many Asian countries still feel the pain to be robbed by USA financially when in difficult time? Can USA still whip other countries into submission? What is the best for Australia in dealing with USA and China?

[@Karl-Benny]

The US will get Australia to help pick on China Australia will loose Trade the US will step in make friend and pick up trade Australia loose

[@beastmode8203]

3 years of pass by and now we are almost to the point of War.

[@culturechina8717]

Being a country more geographically close to China, it's much more wise for Australia to cooperate with China for the benefits of the people of Australia just as the people of ASEAN.

[@lukethomas7123]

He's just articulated the precise reason why Australia will not do this.

[@Carstininvestments]

"... it's much more wise for Australia to cooperate with China...". Never. The CCP is an affront to humanity and civilized norms. You expect Australia to cooperate with a regime like that? kzbin.info/www/bejne/npmbgoKeZsaLiK8

[@ajt1422]

@@Carstininvestments And the so-called Western “civilization” has not been been an affront to humanity.

[@Carstininvestments]

@@ajt1422 What has western civilization got to do with whether Australia should ignore China's treatment of the Uighurs and kow-tow to China?

[@mingyuhuang8944]

@@Carstininvestments ah yes. Watch more biased and brainwashing media about the government that has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. You say civilized as if America invading Iraq illegally and killing 1 million Muslims was "civilized"

[@KristopherNoronha]

Lovely debate. The Q&A was very throught provoking, and possibly more insightful than the presentation itself!

[@johnyossarian9059]

John Mearsheimer's basic theory of international politics: 1. The ideal situation for any great power is to be a hegemon in its region of the world and to make sure that it has no peer competitor. To make sure there is no other hegemon in any other area of the world. 2. There has only been only one regional hegemon in world's history and that is the US in the Western hemisphere. 3. Why? Because there is no higher authority in international politics to call upon if you get into trouble and nobody can ever know the intentions of other countries.

[@ZayneStorm007]

Yeah I’m surprised all his lectures have a good amount of views he basically says the same stuff everywhere he goes. Nevertheless is lectures and work is easy to understand and really credible.

[@aoeu256]

The ideal situation is for all nations to cede power to a higher authority the UN...?

[@jvs333]

The US rose to hegemonic power due to the time of history . In post 1945 the majority of the world was undeveloped ( Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Asia) Europe and Soviet Union were in ruins. Meanwhile the US remained untouched and due to the war fully industrialized. Today’s world is not 1950s. It’s impossible for the US to think it can still be the hegemonic unipolar ruling power is delusional. Especially when it is no longer the industrial center, the sole ruling wealth, the unmatched military, add to what wasn’t in the 1950s: technology. The American 20th century halcyon era is over and now it must compete in every aspects of the globalized 21st century world (energy, technology, currency, military, prepared citizenry/infrastructure, industry, economically, resources, etc). The problem for the US is it knows if it’s a fair playing field it can’t compete let alone win. So it has now been reduced to throwing out fairness out the window and resorting to a “Tanya Harding” tactic of attempting to “knee-capping” its global competitors and using dirty tricks to steal resources, treasuries, governments (coups/overthrows/installing), organizing, funding, training, arming terrorists/rebel groups, bullying/threatening/bribing, asasinations, false flags, proxy wars, etc. what ever means to gets its way regardless of deaths, human suffering, destruction, and pure evil. The US is now at that desperate level. It is willing to start a world war that may include nuclear weapons and destroy everything including itself to cling to its past halcyon hegemonic era. Like the suicidal spouse that will kill his wife and family and anyone that tries to stop him then kill himself because if he can’t have it no one can

[@nh6870]

Historically, before WWII, Britain was the world dominant power. After 1776, the USA gradually took over. She focused on domestic economic development, and was contented to leave the world alone until December 7, 1941 with the Pearl Harbor attack. Since then, she began to play a more active role and gradually began to dominate the world. Initially, she tried to keep world peace. As economic profitability becomes more and more important, her focus changed and she becomes more arrogant & cunning at meddling in weaker countries domestic affairs or bullying countries for their oil or preventing them from developing into their own nations. China does not have a history of world domination. No one help China rebuild during her most difficult years (although Russia did) after WWII. By her own people's sweat, toil, and sacrifices, China managed to develop and her people's lives gradually improve. She sold products at very cheap prices so that developed countries' businesses can make profits off of her. Now that China has become stronger, the US realizes that she cannot order China about. Why should China or any other country need to listen to the US? Unlike the US, China desires to to build economic co-operation, not political domination. This annoys the U.S. of course.. China is a free country and so can develop militarily to protect herself. The 2nd amendment in the US Constitution protects and allows her citizens to bear arms. China have just as much right to bear arms too. Imperial Japan was like Hitleristic Germany. After WWII, despite Japan's constitution that prevented her to increase her military spending, she has consistently supported US political aggressions against China. We all in Asia remember Japan and none of us trust her, (not her politicians anyway) - not South Korea, nor most Southeast Asian nations whose countries were occupied and our ancestors butchered. We don't forget these things. Depending on what the US President's agenda is/are, he either conveniently forgets about the American Revolution of 1776 or the 2,403 lives lost in the Pearl Harbor attack and drums up lies about this or that country so that his armament, oil or economically greedy buddy friends can profit from those lies and propaganda. What does this tells us about US politicians after WWII? Self centered, Machiaevallistic, prejudiced at will etc. who gives no thoughts about his citizens. Still, countries like the U.K., Australia, New Zealand take the U.S. lead and do whatever the latter asks of them againt China without thinking about the dire economic consequences their actions would bring them. China has no quarrel with Australia nor New Zealand. Why then does your politicians side with the US's attempt to bully China politically? When they do this, this is what you get. If your politicians are so foolish, to take those actions, have they negotiated with the US to reimburse you for the businesses you will be losing? Have they even think about this? And you would surely expect such consequences, right? If neither your politicians nor you have considered these factors, perhaps the people of Australia or any country for that matter should start thinking: Must we always follow what the US says and do? How does it benefit us, benefit my business, my employees, my country. If it doesn't, then the next step is to vote those people out, and vote in politicians who can think for your own country. There are so much lies about China put out by conservatives and Trump supporters. Can't you even tell truth from lies? Even that about the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The World is changing. We don't need the US to be Big Brother anymore. They should solve your own domestic problems first. Focus on improving the lives of Americans living below poverty level& illegal immigrant issues, and the widespread Trumpet lies instead. ABC in-depth news videos too have continually helped to promote, distort and report lies to everyone .To the US, anyone who does not want to be controlled by Uncle Sam is always bad. Have you forgotten why your ancestors revolted against the British Empire back in 1776? Because the latter tried to control you. You didn't like it, So you revolted against it. China and many other countries feel the same way too. We in Asia don't want the US to control and tell us what we can or cannot do in this world. The World belongs to us all, not just you. ABC and other media outlets, politicians and even certain journalists in the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand along with other similar groups colludes to put China and other countries down. All these serve no productive purposes other than to prolong conflicts, continually causes inter-country disputes, inter-racial divisiveness and the deliberate instigation of deep hatred in humanity. Are you going to let these politicians and media use their skillful manipulation to promote their own interests, ruin your businesses or run your lives? Please be neither naïve nor quiet. Speak out in order that they may shut up. We want governments that will make positive contributions to her people and genuine friendships between countries so that this world can actually becomes a much better place.

[@lucasgrey9794]

That is a load of NONSENSE. The U.S was OCCUPYING Philippines, Guam, Wake Field Islands and Hawaii. Japan's slogan was Asia for Asians and they were trying to kick the British, Dutch, French and Soviets out. Japan was also working to keep the MONSTROUS ideology of Bolshevism out of Asia. Pearl Harbor was NOT an unprovoked attack the way you white supremacists claim. It was a response to YEARS of aggression and provocation by the United States.

[@teresabarrett8676]

Thank you.

[@goedelite]

I should like to comment only on one part of your dissertation, that the US was contented to leave the world alone until December 7th, 1941. In fact, the US was contented to bide its time with regard to ambitions outside N. America until it helped the Doles to take over Hawaii from its native Queen Lili'uokalani in 1893 and annexed it in 1898. Before then, the US's imperialism and brazen conduct were confined to the genocide of Native Americans, warring with Mexico, and meddling in Venezuela. An exception might be in China, where American businessmen joined others in taking advantage of China's growing republican opposition to the Qing dynasty. After 1898, the examples of US imperial assertions are many, the most egregious being the War against Spain.

[@FOLIPE]

@@lucasgrey9794 Aggression is what Japan did to China and Korea, and then when they attacked Pearl Harbor because of an oil embargo.

[@lucasgrey9794]

@@FOLIPE An oil embargo is an Act of War. Looking at BOTH Koreas today, it is clear that they would've been better off under Japanese control. Pearl Harbor was a response to American aggression.

[@pr0newbie]

As an East Asian, I'm grateful to John for sharing his realist views, which I take to be that of a typical American but possibly not of the Chinese because he doesn't seem to understand the nuance and differences between China's history as a relatively benign regional hegemon and its culture. However, he's clearly an in-the-know and this is why I think Kishore's preferred outcome of multilateralism will not be fulfilled, at least not in this decade. I just hope there won't be any Hot War. I also hope his speeches will not be used by extremists on either side to justify one.

[@FOLIPE]

According to him that narrative of Chinese history is similar to the US narrative of US exceptionalism: a narrative about how X is actually the good guy running the things well and then it's others who cause trouble. See what China did to Japan, Korea, Vietnam and even Indonesia when these countries threatened Chinese hegemony. It's true that the hierarchical order of the tribute system was more "benign", but not more so than any other order where the hegemonic power has no competitors. As soon as Japan came up being able to overturn china locally, China didn't take that as fondly as a "benign power" would. But of course, when X is the hegemon, X acts to keep peace and stability.

[@JBfan88]

> China's history as a relatively benign regional hegemon You don't actually believe that do you? The reason China hasn't invaded its neighbors much in the last 200 years is because it was too weak to (see: getting its ass kicked by everyone from Russia to Japan). When China had the power to they behaved just as ruthlessly as any European Empire. That's why Vietnam, Tibet, Mongolia and Korea were all colonies or tributary states at various points. It's why several ethnic groups don't exist anymore-for example, there were ethnic groups other than the Uyghurs living in Xinjiang. The Qing dynasty exterminated them. Very benign.

[@pr0newbie]

@@JBfan88 hmm? Are you aware how diverse the Chinese are? Even the diaspora? They could have taken over SEA if they wanted to. Or sailed and go on more conquests. But they chose to destroy their own naval fleet to focus inwards.

[@JBfan88]

@@pr0newbie Dude, they tried to take over Vietnam for like 1,000 years. Thats why the Vietnamese still hate China today and love the US. Is Vietnam not in SEA? What part of East Asia are yuo from?

[@eugenedebbs2189]

@@JBfan88 Your thesis ignores some pertinent historical observations. In the 15th century, China had by far the strongest navy in the region and could have EASILY taken over Southeast Asia if they wanted to but they simply chose not to.

[@carriemclaren-jones159]

What a captivating Professor - he makes learning fun!

[@katzorro]

What stopped the Japanese from invading Australia? This plan was presented to the Emperor by Prime Minister Hideki Tōjō and in effect ended discussion of invading Australia. The FS Operation was not implemented, however, due to Japan's defeats in the Battle of the Coral Sea and Battle of Midway and was cancelled on 11 July 1942. There was a big battle. America only lost one carrier but the Japanese lost four aircraft carriers. The Americans won. Australia was spared from the Japanese invasion.

[@nathan-ck3je]

Thats all true in somewhat. Although it was Australian army in New Guinea that held of the Japanese. Not the battle of the Coral Sea and the battle of midway

[@MRTY323]

"US is a very big and very wealthy country…" Yet some how it struggles to keep its government functional without borrowing more money.

[@dwayneleadenns9042]

Right. Right. Right...

[@ONECOUNT]

@@dwayneleadenns9042 No, left, left, left!

[@dwayneleadenns9042]

@@ONECOUNT good point +1

[@elliekwong3180]

They are delusional! America is in debt up to their eyebrows. America is sinking fast. EU, Russia and China threw Bidden a life line. He didn't want it. He is dumber than dumb Trump. The arrogance will be the demise of America. It is sad. Americans will pay handsomely.

[@vincentdesun]

In a country where half of their population doesn't want to wear a mask during a global pandemic, there's little the government can do.

[@abdullahal-qarni6567]

even if my english not perfect ,, this guy talk in interesting way, and all his talks are understood

[@chitrungkim]

Never tired listening to JM

[@johnsmith-fj5nk]

It's interesting to listen this talk three years later with the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, about how will Australia think about the American missiles.

[@weipingjiang4590]

Interestingly, Mr. John Mearsheimer has difficulty to understand two words, defense and offense.

[@KristopherNoronha]

I would say he understands them perfectly - his point was about perception of defense as offense by the opposing side. Also, strength in any aspect is a good defense which a powerful enough opponent views as offense.

[@nmew6926]

The real Q is CAN US DECLINE PEACEFULLY

[@KLUJICS]

Depends on China

[@elliekwong3180]

Clearly, the answer is no! America will take everyone with it.

[@beastmode8203]

@@elliekwong3180 you're smart as hell you understand. Enjoy the time you have left because of China challenging the US we are all going to burn to the ground ☢️

[@tonygold9037]

Brilliant, as always.

[@greatz655]

Wow one of the best lecture, speech, debate ever. Undeniable truths of the realist. Smarter people have disagreements with his theory until you hear his realist answers.

[@jerryk7665]

Tom Switzer seems typical Aussie - feeling self-important without reason to be. Glad John Mearsheimer able to indirectly put him down.

[@BlackwaterEl1te]

Dam watching this in 2020 what a difference one year can with a huge ass black swan event.

[@wpariah]

Lol....the US doesn't need to push Australia into picking a side. China practically pushed Australia into AUKUS--via trade sanctions, bellicose diplomacy, and sailing its navy along Australia's coast.

[@yulongyan3940]

No, you got the order wrong.

[@lmyunxlee2005]

The best moderator.. 🎉

[@johnl9361]

Lol, what? Francis Fukuyamas stupid book "End of History" is considered important? That guy was proven so wrong, its embarrassing.

[@frankm4349]

Australia has a strategy? Really?

[@titob.yotokojr.9337]

This was given 3 years ago. Now three years later, the economy and demographics of China are in a different state. Plus there are now more doubts about the real GDP numbers of China being accurate at all. Even the "silk and belt road" of China is now somewhat in tatters. Consequently there are very strong doubts that China will overtake the U.S. economically and by extension militarily at any time in the future.

[@elbarca223]

Chinese signed a treaty with the Solomon Islands. They want to dominate East and South-east Asia and Pacific Island chains. John Mearsheimer is right on point.

[@paulfri1569]

Exactly. What a visionary

[@tonybrown3192]

Excellent discussion and well done to the CIS for putting this on! Only quibble would be the quality of the audio! When the discussion is this interesting you don't want to mishear anything!

[@slly4276]

And Australia is silly enough to throw themselves in .

[@tinaz1818able]

​@@slly4276, The Aussies have no choice, do they?

[@olympiahendrix4392]

Right! were they whispering close to the mike as well?

[@rodneychew9893]

USA is a brutal bully but as John took a threatening slap at Australia, Australia have to stay quiet and subservient. This is because Australia fear the hegemonic USA which writes the USA RULES BASED ORDER and Australia has learnt its lesson of being attacked by USA before when it tried to be independent of US commands. It is very fearful and in awe of USA ability to inflict pain and sufferings on non consenting weaker nations.

[@Nomad_Dad]

wtf this is a complete fabrication there mate, we have never been 'attacked' by the US in any way what so ever and have NEVER been under any sort of US command

[@beastmode8203]

The US is going to do the same thing to China.

[@chipledhungaman]

Vietnam, The Philippines, Malaysia, Japan and Australia all feel the same way about China

[@stevejurgens9836]

The debate in Australia is very parochial...

[@powerrui]

It can. But we won’t allow it.

[@antoniochang4553]

China and the US have different military objectives and different views of what expansion means. China is not interested in invading countries nor exporting its political system. Therefore, it is quite feasible that the dominant power could negotiate peacefully with the emerging power, to share their experience and know how. Only the US hawks want war

[@ThienHoang-tr3dh]

America did the same before becoming the true Empire

[@antoniochang4553]

@@ThienHoang-tr3dh how so?

[@Bob-om9md]

@@antoniochang4553 China's behaviour in the south China sea is remarkably similar to late 19th century America in the Gulf of Mexico. This was followed by naval expansion by America, something we see China doing now. If there is a shift in power in the next couple of decades (see America and UK in 20th century), China would be in prime position to take over. Note that America only really started investing in Regime change after Pax Americana started- so its not unusual to assume that China's politics will only be rigorously be enforced once it takes over USA's role as the "world police".

[@antoniochang4553]

@@Bob-om9md Hardly "remarkably"similar. Objectives were different, the circumstances were different and the strategic situation was different. one cannot safer conclude that if the US naval activity in the gulf Mexico led to expansion win the 19th century, it follows that China will do the same. This argument is just too infantile

[@antoniochang4553]

@@Bob-om9md If your argument was sound then one can conclude that the the US and Allies naval activities in the South China Sea is intended to invade China.

[@erickrcisneros]

I’m beginning to notice, once you see one Mearshiemer speech, you’ve seen them all. He says some interesting stuff, but doesn’t add to it very often.

[@soniama5246]

🙃you right and his words age well..as thryvare starting to come true.

[@ranjithpowell6791]

“Feed the beast” Emotive language.

[@netizencapet]

I had three points and of them were brought up by the guests: 0. Australia has nothing to gain from being Washington's pawn in a China Containment strategy except a bunch of missile targets on its cities, a complety counterproductive military spending rampup, and a decline in Australian economic pivot room and likely growth. 1. Aus has the option of sitting out a particular conflict that the US may engage in just as India, Turkey and Egypt often do. 2. The US is comically overextended, decaying from. within and has less and less influence and reach with each passing year... and it cannot win a single overseas war. It absolutely will not prevail in a Taiwan war. REMEMBER: the weakest link is cut first. China will seek to unravel the containment program by punishing Australia and other manageable allies of the US, while the US in a bind - such as economic crisis during the middle of a conflict with China in a moment when China has targeted the weakest link in the containment chain - will leave Australia out to dry.

[@Ese_osa]

Professor John has been neglected for so long, he predicted global political reality clearly. Imagine what is going on now in regards to Taiwan and the solomon Islands. More to come

[@777jones]

Professor made a rare misstep when he said the US “single handedly” defeated Japan. Australia fought bravely in the Pacific war.

[@danb7808]

I assume he refers to the two bombs dropped and putting an end to the war. This caused a fast change of mind.

[@taceyh]

You are 100% correct. He misspoke, but I belive he was focuses on not needing Soviets to invade Japan, unlike needing us to invade Europe. No question that for years the Australians in particular fought bravely and suffered horribly even before the US entered the war.

[@recalcitrantrecidivist5927]

No greater power? I'd like to see John Mearsheimer in debate with Chris Hedges.

[@rakatumu]

I remember a question asking about Australian going nuclear and neutral, but can't find it in this or the mearsheimer vs white vids. Anyone know what I'm talking about?

[@believeingood5875]

China debate: John Mearsheimer I Hugh White I Tom Switzer t.co/rk4saJVTTF 去年的视频，现在再看很有现实意义。

[@BeelP.]

Third country Malaysian observer here. Interesting to hear Mearsheimer utter (on behalf of the US?) a coercive threat to Aussies that Aussies must fall in line with respect to their foreign policy orientation or else a nasty US will turn nasty towards Australia! So will Australia obediently jump into Washington's lap?

[@elliekwong3180]

Australia is one of the 5 eyes. The 5 eyes consist of America, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand. They all share the same DNA. You can Google them. It was a secret alliance until Edward Snowden came along. . .secret no more.

[@ThatsMrPencilneck2U]

Mearsheimer was not threatening the Australians, but simply explaining how power works. All nation states are run by psychopaths, and the US didn't become the sole superpower being run by choir boys. Back when another Japan was expanding, they promised to liberate their Asian brothers from Western tyranny. Unlike the Chinese, the Japanese actually did have a long history of being at peace.

[@FOLIPE]

Its Not a threat to say that if you go out when it's raining you are going to get wet. It's a statement of fact

[@BeelP.]

@@ThatsMrPencilneck2U unlike the Japanese? China has not fought a war in the period since its brief incursion into Vietnam about 40 years ago. That was the entirety of the period of its economic ascendancy. Compare that with the other Great Power, our war mongering USA which cannot seem to help it drifting from war to war since WW2 or in fact ever since it emerged as a Great Power.

[@ThatsMrPencilneck2U]

​@@BeelP. China conquered and annexed Tibet in the 1950's, after it supported the North Korean invasion of South Korea and sent it's elite forces in, when the UN forces threatened to unify that country. Afterwards, China decided that a big chunk of India was really China. How many countries are on "China's" turf? When the Japanese invaded, the Communist showed them peace, while the Nationalists responded, like a responsible government. Being the major superpower on the planet, the US has reserved the power of making war for itself. China has not done bad, at all, under the Pax Americana, has it? Now, China wants to end this period and settle territorial disputes with some 18 countries.

[@josielam5773]

Listening to what he said makes me sick. It reveals American’s lack of morality and the ambition to win at all costs. He is sick to the core.

[@SI-cd7xs]

Physcopaths

[@obj6989]

He is being frank at least. To deal with them, you should realize what we should do - to do exactly what they do, be cruel, be firece, be merciless, only in a much more efficient way.

[@luap2551]

Man, those Chinese play the long game - We play checkers and they play chess

[@photonquantum4863]

Americans always believe everyone is looking upon them and going to follow their path because they are exeptional. They are God's favorite son and their way is the one and only destined way.

[@rcmrcm3370]

He left off at the US destroyed the British Empire as well

[@Edi_J]

The largest "hegemon competition" when USA started to become the world power was not Germany, nor Soviet Union, nor Spain, nor Japan. It was the United Kingdom. I was really expecting this to be more open & honest at 12:45 ... Actually it was the US who helped to release Nazi Germany from the post-WWI restrictions. USA was the true reason of WWII (yes, the war started in 1939, not in 1941). The goal was to contain the Brits, and to weaken other European colonial states: most importantly France and Netherlands. The plan worked very well in that area, all colonial states lost their possessions - the only problem was that the Soviets became too powerful in the process, too successful in Europe - and communism started to spread...

[@dwayneleadenns9042]

Fucking great point.

[@YinzBurgh99]

The UK was already done for after WW1 and the US had them in debt, which the UK defaulted on. WW2 was simply the final nail in the coffin.

[@elliekwong3180]

Ah, no wonder people call America, the evil empire!

[@Edi_J]

@@elliekwong3180 Standard, normal geopolitics. Everybody does the same. UK, US, now aspiring China. And is it "evil"? Point of view depends on point of sitting.

[@oceanrem6531]

Professor Mearsheimer is such a great intellect. The U.S. leadership should have listened to him more.

[@fnaust]

Excellent and entertaining analysis.

[@Santeh60]

Hi Prof John, I like your deduction theory but apparently you do so with a result that suits the American digestive system. China on the other hand is giving American lots of economic digestion and constipation without having to have fire and bullets flying hitherto.

[@barracuda7018]

China is going down by the head..60 trillion $'s started to explode..Their ghost cities are crumbling. It's all over with China sooner than you think. Check Evergrand disaster and it's implications. Tip of the iceberg..

[@sunmanyi3265]

@@barracuda7018 coming from a barracuda's mouth, hehe, what a fish!

[@yongy2000]

China's Nationalism is the traditional variety that is concerned with national strength, national culture and territorial security within the peripheral of its borders. On the other hand, America's Nationalism in practice is a form of supersized globalist imperialism that has nothing to do with nation building at home or even securing its own borders. It's mostly about projecting absolute power abroad. This projection of power requires trillions of dollars in continuous "defense" spending which could have benefited the average Americans if such money were actually spent at home, but instead, the only true and disproportionate beneficiaries of such immense spending and projection of global power have been multinational corporations with large private assets around the world, and the 1% wealthy elites while the American middle-class continues to be impoverished and embittered due to a lack of long term domestic investments. Mearsheimer's analyses have two major flaws: 1. his inability and refusal to distinguish between China's traditional nationalism and America's globalist imperialism; he disingenuously wanting to treat the two as the same; 2. his insistence on projecting American globalist imperialism and motives unto China and its garden variety nationalist policies.

[@horridohobbies]

USA is Godzilla. China is King Kong. 😁

[@juggy666]

John is on fire

[@stevejurgens9836]

What Mearsheimer says is common sense - I don't understand those who don't get it. At any rate, go Mearsheimer!

[@litesp]

Measheimer is projecting US imperial behavior to China. All of the frightening, aggressive moves that China might make is what the US government and corporations started over a hundred years ago. The US only has allies because of threats not mutual benefit.

[@beastmode8203]

@@litesp the US will stay number one or the world will end ☢️

[@zhoubaidinh403]

The limiting factor is and has always been what the West would allow as regards geopolitics...let me borrow a few from my Malaysian brother... I’m from Malaysia. China has traded with Malaysia for 2000 years. In those years, they had been the world’s biggest powers many times. Never once they sent troops to take our land. Admiral Zhenghe came to Malacca five times, in gigantic fleets, and a flagship eight times the size of Christopher Columbus’ flagship, Santa Maria. He could have seized Malacca easily, but he did not. In 1511, the Portuguese came. In 1642, the Dutch came. In the 18th century the British came. We were colonised by each, one after another. When China wanted spices from India, they traded with the Indians. When they wanted gems, they traded with the Persian. They didn’t take lands. The only time China expanded beyond their current borders was in Yuan Dynasty, when Genghis and his descendants Ogedei Khan, Guyuk Khan & Kublai Khan concurred China, Mid Asia and Eastern Europe. But Yuan Dynasty, although being based in China, was a part of the Mongolian Empire. Then came the Century of Humiliation. Britain smuggled opium into China to dope the population, a strategy to turn the trade deficit around, after the British could not find enough silver to pay the Qing Dynasty in their tea and porcelain trades. After the opium warehouses were burned down and ports were closed by the Chinese in ordered to curb opium, the British started the Opium War I, which China lost. Hong Kong was forced to be surrendered to the British in a peace talk (Nanjing Treaty). The British owned 90% of the opium market in China, during that time, Queen Victoria was the world’s biggest drug baron. The remaining 10% was owned by American merchants from Boston. Many of Boston’s institutions were built with profit from opium. After 12 years of Nanjing Treaty, the West started getting really really greedy. The British wanted the Qing government: 1. To open the borders of China to allow goods coming in and out freely, and tax free. 2. Make opium legal in China. Insane requests, Qing government said no. The British and French, with supports from the US and Russia from behind, started Opium War II with China, which again, China lost. The Anglo-French military raided the Summer Palace, and threatened to burn down the Imperial Palace, the Qing government was forced to pay with ports, free business zones, 300,000 kilograms of silver and Kowloon was taken. Since then, China’s resources flew out freely through these business zones and ports. In the subsequent amendment to the treaties, Chinese people were sold overseas to serve as labor. In 1900, China suffered attacks by the 8-National Alliance(Japan, Russia, Britain, France, USA, Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary). Innocent Chinese civilians in Peking (Beijing now) were murdered, buildings were destroyed & women were raped. The Imperial Palace was raided, and treasures ended up in museums like the British Museum in London and the Louvre in Paris. In late 1930s China was occupied by the Japanese in WWII. Millions of Chinese died during the occupancy. 300,000 Chinese died in Nanjing Massacre alone. Mao brought China together again from the shambles. There were peace and unity for some time. But Mao’s later reign saw sufferings and deaths from famine and power struggles. Then came Deng Xiao Ping and his infamous “black-cat and white-cat” story. His preference in pragmatism than ideologies has transformed China. This thinking allowed China to evolve all the time to adapt to the actual needs in the country, instead of rigidly bounded to ideologies. It also signified the death of Communism in actually practice in China. The current Socialism+Meritocracy+Market Economy model fits the Chinese like gloves, and it propels the uprise of China. Singapore has a similar model, and has been arguably more successful than Hong Kong, because Hong Kong being gateway to China, was riding on the economic boom in China, while Singapore had no one to gain from. In just 30 years, the CPC have moved 800 millions of people out from poverty. The rate of growth is unprecedented in human history. They have built the biggest mobile network, by far the biggest high speed rail network in the world, and they have become a behemoth in infrastructure. They made a fishing village called Shenzhen into the world’s second largest technological centre after the Silicon Valley. They are growing into a technological power house. It has the most elaborate e-commerce and cashless payment system in the world. They have launched exploration to Mars. The Chinese are living a good life and China has become one of the safest countries in the world. The level of patriotism in the country has reached an unprecedented height. For all of the achievements, the West has nothing good to say about it. China suffers from intense anti-China propagandas from the West. Western Media used the keyword “Communist” to instil fear and hatred towards China. Everything China does is negatively reported. They claimed China used slave labor in making iPhones. The truth was, Apple was the most profitable company in the world, it took most of the profit, leave some to Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) and little to the labor. They claimed China was inhuman with one-child policy. At the same time, they accused China of polluting the earth with its huge population. The fact is the Chinese consume just 30% of energy per capita compared to the US. They claimed China underwent ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang. The fact is China has a policy which priorities ethnic minorities. For a long time, the ethnic minorities were allowed to have two children and the majority Han only allowed one. The minorities are allowed a lower score for university intakes. There are 39,000 mosque in China, and 2100 in the US. China has about 3 times more mosque per muslim than the US. When terrorist attacks happened in Xinjiang, China had two choices: 1. Re-educate the Uighur extremists before they turned terrorists. 2. Let them be, after they launch attacks and killed innocent people, bomb their homes. China chose 1 to solve problem from the root and not to do killing. How the US solve terrorism? Fire missiles from battleships, drop bombs from the sky. During the pandemic, When China took extreme measures to lockdown the people, they were accused of being inhuman. When China recovered swiftly because of the extreme measures, they were accused of lying about the actual numbers. When China’s cases became so low that they could provide medical support to other countries, they were accused of politically motivated. Western Media always have reasons to bash China. Just like any country, there are irresponsible individuals from China which do bad and dirty things, but the China government overall has done very well. But I hear this comment over and over by people from the West: I like Chinese people, but the CPC is evil. What they really want is the Chinese to change the government, because the current one is too good. Fortunately China is not a multi-party democratic country, otherwise the opposition party in China will be supported by notorious NGOs (Non-Government Organization) of the USA, like the NED (National Endowment for Democracy), to topple the ruling party. The US and the British couldn’t crack Mainland China, so they work on Hong Kong. Of all the ex-British colonial countries, only the Hong Kongers were offered BNOs by the British. Because the UK would like the Hong Kongers to think they are British citizens, not Chinese. A divide-and-conquer strategy, which they often used in Color Revolutions around the world. They resort to low dirty tricks like detaining Huawei’s CFO & banning Huawei. They raised a silly trade war which benefits no one. Trade deficit always exist between a developing and a developed country. USA is like a luxury car seller who ask a farmer: why am I always buying your vegetables and you haven’t bought any of my cars? When the Chinese were making socks for the world 30 years ago, the world let it be. But when Chinese started to make high technology products, like Huawei and DJI, it caused red-alert. Because when Western and Japanese products are equal to Chinese in technologies, they could never match the Chinese in prices. First world countries want China to continue in making socks. Instead of stepping up themselves, they want to pull China down. The recent movement by the US against China has a very important background. When Libya, Iran, and China decided to ditch the US dollar in oil trades, Gaddafi’s was killed by the US, Iran was being sanctioned by the US, and now it’s China’s turn. The US has been printing money out of nothing. The only reason why the US Dollar is still widely accepted, is because it’s the only currency which oil is allowed to be traded with. The US has an agreement with Saudi that oil must be traded in US dollar ONLY. Without the petrol-dollar status, the US dollars will sink, and America will fall. Therefore anyone trying to disobey this order will be eliminated. China will soon use a gold-backed crypto-currency, the alarms in the White House go off like mad. China’s achievement has been by hard work. Not buy looting the world. I have deep sympathy for China for all the suffering, but now I feel happy for them. China is not rising, they are going back to where they belong. Good luck China. 98

[@user-vz6bj5eu2k]

well said

[@johngordon1175]

America has been trying hard not to allow this as they don’t want to let go!

[@joylove8693]

I am so impressed with those who asked questions which are thought provoking.

[@shane6700]

I wonder if "Australia needs to go to war against China for its security"? John pointed out that both China and USA wants to dominate their regions in terms of power, and he also emphasizes the fact that the USA wants to cement their place as the rule-makers in the world. But Australia is in a different shoe, whether it really needs the "security" is a huge question mark given Mearsheimer himself point it out that Americans has been the one going out with missiles and nuke to torn apart other countries over the last few centuries for oil gold and "order". If you compare that to China, even though China has exerted its influence internationally, but they only do it with soft power. Ie trade agreements beneficial to both side, cheap loans/free money to help start the economy by building ports and road infrastructures, etc. I felt John Mearsheimer is more like a lobbyist from the US states purposefully traveling to Canberra and encouraging Australia to go be the dog at the front gate barking hard at the nearby friendly neighbor. (Note everything was pretty good between China and Australia for around 10 years before this, and a large portion of reason why Australia has been prosperous and surviving the Subprime crisis was thank to China)

[@jakewalklate6226]

One country has been nuked in history and it protected Australia from invasion. Your 'oil' theory is nothing but a conspiracy theory, islamic extremists attack everyone they come in contact with, their own citizens, other countries, children, europeans, to throw all this evidence out the window, assume islamic innocence and say the gulf wars were an inside job for oil shows extreme arrogance and and biased opinion. The ports and infrastructure being built isn't out of the kindness of chinas own heart, it's a debt trap to gain influence and power globally, china doesn't even fund their own high schools, parents have to pay for their children to get an education past the age of 12 and yet china is sending out money all over the world to build an infrastructure highway for their own benefit, knowing the countries can't pay it back so they can have control of their own shipping logistics globally on other countries soils when they default on the loan and have to give up assets to repay china. Have you actually taken a look at the ports and airports being built by china in counties around the world? They aren't owned by the countries they give the loans to, they have Chinese communist flags, they have Chinese surveillance equipment that directly gives a video and audio feed back to beijing and they have Han Chinese security guards patrolling them, it isn't a loan at all, it's a tactic have control of other countries imports and exports, they're a totalitarian country. If you seriously think that a country won't pay to send it's own kids to school but is willing to help Fijians because they're so kind but then puts their ethnic minorities in reeducation camps you've got some wilful blindness going on. I have no problem as an Australian citizen with trading with china but I want nothing to do with their international tactics and their projection of power in the Asia pacific region, our government needs to trade with china knowing full well we can have no foreign interference with our diplomatic processes and no foreign ownership of our infrastructure from the Chinese, the belt and road initiative needs to be completely removed and we need to get our electricity grid back from the Hong Kong owned enterprises. The ASPI is the Australian Strategic Policy Institute if you wish to learn about Chinas influential role in the region and their tactics, they have KZbin videos you can watch to learn about the communist parties regime, I understand this guy didn't really explain much and just left us with two options either to fight for the USA or fight for China, I want no war with China however the situation is a lot more complex than America starting fights as this guy as just asserted, if he was really sent from Washington he did a terrible job at explaining why we should participate in defending our country from Chinese interference. The one who yells fire, usually is trying to get help to put out a fire.

[@shane6700]

@@jakewalklate6226 Just also know this, this channel and skynew ABC deletes some of my comments multiple time. Theres also no so-called freedom of speech in the world. Just rules, rule makers and the people who is ruled under in diffrent forms

[@shane6700]

@@jakewalklate6226 Ive been trying to comment some official goverment references and sources from USA and Australia goverment on NUkes and Chinese foreign infrastruture and they have deleted them multifple time

[@asongslove]

1:10 Japan 1970 is a perfect counter argument.

[@ddbb1311]

If I got to ask quesion, I would ask "What makes you asserting Ukraine being neutral is do-able while Australia, sitting thousands of KMs away from both continents has to take side so firmly or US will point its gun point at AUS?"

[@freethinker999]

The question is: can China be allowed to rise peacefully by the Western powers?

[@johndole9381]

No, Australia does not have to choose; ask the Philippines...!

[@yvettecowley873]

Is silicon valley scared of china 2025 or scared of competition

[@shaunellis3060]

It's that the 2025 plan is really a debt trap diplomacy scam where china lends money that a poor nation can never pay back & then China takes over what they want there like ports & army bases. Plus the 5G that China is rolling out has backdoors in it for spying on everyone where they build them. I don't know how the tech companies feel about it but I know America & Trump are opposed to it & will no long share Intel with any nations that implement & build any China 5G infrastructure. Hell we (USA) just told Britain well cut them off with intel sharing. Trump is dead serious.

[@themogul5846]

China will win the long fight. It is only a matter of time before we crush our enemies. Death to the western world!

[@richiesd1]

Shaun Ellis, you’re confusing China 2025 with belt and road. What is the US answer to belt and road?

[@marktrinidad7650]

@@richiesd1 US answer is Bombs and Jets diplomacy.

[@richiesd1]

@@marktrinidad7650 , I get your point. As an American, I’m pretty sad. China is spending $1 trillion on belt and road over 10 years. We already spent $ trillions more on pandemic stimulus with nothing to show for. We, Americans, should develop an infrastructure plan for the world. As far as China 2025, that government planning of the economy. We don’t believe government planning works, so we should stick to letting the invisible hand of the free market work its magic to produce superior results (I’m being facetious).

[@zhxwhu]

What a great audience with thought provoking questions. Great session!

[@elliotsmith1622]

1:11:52, Weimar Germany would have chosen an expansionist path. During the 1920s Germany was covertly re-arming and re-equipping the Reichswehr, in fact even before Hitler had seized power there were plans for a 4 million strong army. He is correct there.