Can the Democrats Snatch the Midterms?

TLDR Daily: / tldrdaily
We're moments away from the midterm results, so we wanted to breakdown the latest data. We'll examine who's most likely to win each of the chambers, the states to watch and what to expect...
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1 - www.nytimes.com/2022/05/20/wo...
2 - www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...
3 - www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...
4 - cepr.net/clinton-e-mails-poin...
5 - foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/...
6 - foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/...
7 - theconversation.com/they-put-...
8 - foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/...
9 - foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/...
10 - usun.usmission.gov/remarks-by...
11 - foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/...
12 - igs.duke.edu/news/recent-tren...
13 - www.france24.com/en/live-news...

[@TLDRnewsUS]

We forgot to mention in this video that there's a small chance that Georgia's election goes to a run-off (thanks for reminding us commenters!). Georgian election law mandates that candidates must receive a majority of the vote in order to win an election. Thanks to the presence of Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, who's currently polling on about 1%, it's possible that neither Walker nor Warnock will reach 50% in the first round. If this happens, a runoff election between Walker and Warnock will happen on December 6th, which means we might not know the balance of power in Senate until then. Apologies for failing to mention this in the video, and hope you enjoyed it nonetheless!

[@casbot71]

As a _Libertarian,_ Oliver will most likely take votes from Walker (GOP), so the odds of him taking enough votes to knock both the Dem and GOP candidates down to 49% are very very small. Anyway we'll know soon enough. And then it's off to laugh at and gloat at old comments from hyper partisans on whichever side "loses".

[@HyperLuigi37]

Wow that’s incredibly annoying lmao.

[@MikeGill87]

So far all goes slightly better (for Democrats) than predicted. But it seems the Georgian run-off is in the stars.

[@fareflight2029]

I just want to say thanks for the unbiased coverage. You do better than mainstream media.

[@frazermckee2649]

I agree

[@matomatic4599]

If you want unbiased coverage from a disinterested party, look for factual news sources outside of your country.

[@Nobleheart111]

@fhweuenh I'll take that over the radicalized Alphabet networks of NBC, MSN, and ABC.

[@no_name4796]

Yeah because being leftist is easier if you are just slightly reasonable and not a dumb fucking greedy boy who only cares about himself

[@no_name4796]

Plus in a nice world they would be center leaning and the left actually exist and help poor people but unlucky for us the true left helpingthe poor doesn't really exist so yeah... P.s. we are headed to climate catastophy so it's sad we don't worry about that...

[@Chrissy717]

I just want to mention how funny and different the comment section looks on the US channel compared to the EU or Standard TLDR channel. It's like you can literally see how divided that country is.

[@ThatIrishSOB]

It's rough when most Americans don't have perspective outside of their own country. In the UK Biden would be a Libdem at the most, yet right-wingers here treat him like he's the second coming of Karl Marx. And Republicans are now running on denying the results of elections across the country, if they lose they just claim it was fraud. V scary times here in America, please pray for our democracy

[@jonbbbb]

I watched a couple videos about Liz Truss and the comments there were very similar to the comments here. Almost uniformly against Liz Truss. In this video, the comments (that reference support of a party, not counting "wow tldr is so great") are almost uniformly pro-Democrat. I'm not saying America isn't heavily divided, just wondering what it is about the comment section that suggests that, or how it is different from the EU/UK version?

[@Chrissy717]

@@jonbbbb Maybe it was because I was early, but when the video was out for like 10 minutes most comments said something along the line of "Dems gonna ruin this country, vote red" or "This is a god-given country, let's all praise the lord and vote for red, vote freedom" and stuff like that

[@jonbbbb]

@@Chrissy717 interesting, I wonder if that means TLDR is actively deleting pro-Republican comments? That would be pretty wild for a news source that tries to be unbiased. The closest comment I see to either one you mentioned is the 2nd oldest comment on the video, which says "Jesus loves you so much that he died on the cross for you so that you can have eternal life with him so please repent and spread the word of God" but clearly doesn't say anything about which way to vote. If there was a similar one that said "vote red" it has been deleted.

[@Chrissy717]

@@jonbbbb It don't think TLDR deletes any comments. Most of the time the responses where the once praising the republicans. Maybe these people delete their comments themselves, idk.

[@havehope646]

I love these TLDR midterms videos

[@CircusInto]

It's only their second Midterm related video. They did not cover it at all

[@Shaggy.Vibes-]

@@CircusInto Did they cover it once, or didn't cover it at all? What you said doesn't make sense.

[@inacioperondihank3961]

There aren't many things for which I'm proud of my homeland (Brazil) in relation to other countries, but the electoral system is definitely one of them. With voting booths opening at 07:00 AM and closing at 05:00 PM, all the results of our runoff election were known before 08:30 PM.

[@nox5555]

well every country but the US is able to count votes in a couple of hours.

[@holdenennis]

The fact that you have a runoff to begin with, preventing minority rule, is another win, along with your proportional representation in your National Congress. I wish we had those in the United States.

[@splashnskillz37]

@@holdenennis And yet we f*cked up, but resistent still

[@dkoda840]

I don’t think it’s can but probably will I’d be shocked if the Dems come out with a majority in either.

[@stevenwilson5556]

an important data point 43% US think they are in worse financial situation double what it was when Biden took office

[@rawrimadeinosaur7513]

Which a shame bc I want universal healthcare but I know we won't get that from the GOP

[@AL-lh2ht]

Abortions ban for everyone. Also yes we are going to raise taxes on you, except for the rich of course.

[@jrr6947]

This election was a nothing burger on both sides.

[@SmiIeyyXD]

@@rawrimadeinosaur7513 Senate could go to democrats.

[@matthewsetlak5589]

Looking back after midterms is very interesting.

[@justinhayes6532]

Thanks again for this channel

[@jeffmorris5802]

Great video. Thank you.

[@relucentsandman6447]

Oz won't shut up about the stroke because he knows how unpopular his policy is

[@jrr6947]

A stroke is a huge issue, since you want the most cognitively healthy person to make decisions...it's too late now Fetterman won.

[@ismailabdulahi1214]

Great video. Loved it

[@jordanbarefoot]

Great coverage

[@NoJusticeMTG]

As someone watching in horror from the UK, i *should* be gobsmacked that anyone like Walker or Oz can ever be an elected representative. Then I look at my own country....

[@NoJusticeMTG]

Glad to see Shapiro way ahead of Mastriano at least...

[@karankapoor2701]

@@NoJusticeMTG it's also good to see that LABOUR isn't being led by an anti semite

[@stevenwilson5556]

@@NoJusticeMTG If you are in the UK worry about your turf. Thx

[@holdenennis]

@@stevenwilson5556 people can care about the politics of other countries. I am American, but I follow elections everywhere. It is important for me as an aspiring historian to know all of this and understand how the world works.

[@s.m.2523]

@@stevenwilson5556 Sorry, no can do. Because you dear muricans are still (for as long as that last but that influence is wanning, it's still a very long agony) a major international poweweither it is by throwing your weight around internationaly or just cultural influence. So yeah that makes your politics everyone else buisness by extnesion because, weither by thrwing your weight around directly internationnaly or through cultural influence and commerce, you make it our buisness :p

[@kingace6186]

Thank you for the objective coverage. We love TLDR US News

[@DJPaoloDelaCruz]

So, it's likely Walker and Oz becoming Senators, if we believe in the Opinion Polling.

[@ComradeChyrk]

That would be awful...

[@dr.spaghetti1973]

well at least we won’t have Oz now

[@nicholasthompson2308]

Great video!

[@napoleonibonaparte7198]

Today, when America coughs, the entire world gets bedridden.

[@danielbickford3458]

kind of curious with the recent shake-ups in social media will this change voting patterns

[@gp-1542]

Probably not much but definitely keep a eye on them

[@ortizandy87]

Thanks guys

[@svenneboll3984]

Good video!

[@frazermckee2649]

very good video

[@calebbearup4282]

I'm curious if there's a plan to stop releasing oil from the strategic reserves as soon as the election is over. It's gotten low enough to be concerning and there's no reason to keep fuel costs low for the next couple years

[@jonbbbb]

@Alex Pokrandt It's supposed to be for emergencies and short term disruptions, not slightly reducing gas prices for long periods of time. You could argue that times have changed and disruption risks are lower since we don't depend on oil imports as much, but at least in this time of huge tensions throughout the world it seems like a bad idea to change policy right now.

[@nox5555]

@@jonbbbb It also doesnt work. the gas price increases have nothing to do with the Oil price right now, the Refineries are the choke point and energy costs in Europe are the main price driver because you need alot of energy to make gas from oil .

[@stevenwilson5556]

@@nox5555 EU makes US gas?

[@nox5555]

@@stevenwilson5556 there is some exchange between both, but the main issue is that the gas market is very global and a couple of refineries that dont produce or have to ask much higher prices for their products will push up the markets everywhere.

[@benfulford3943]

@@nox5555 when you are talking about gas do you mean petrol or are you talking about natural gas? I'm confused trying to follow your comments and I'm not sure if you are just americanising it

[@therealjoediaz]

I’m predicting GOP picks up 25ish seats in the House. In the senate, I’m predicting Oz wins in PA, Nevada will go R, Georgia will have a runoff and Walker will win, and Arizona will be tilt R. So that’s 53-47

[@alkasah4softs129]

Lol

[@bbael2768]

Alex Jones is better than mainstream news at this point, and that's not a compliment to Jones

[@soundscape26]

Gosh, imagine electing someone like Oz...

[@mordant221]

Oh and Smiley will win WA, a freakin' mail in ballot state no less!

[@bbael2768]

@@soundscape26 well when you run a guy who can't currently form a sentence after years of messaging saying trumps cognitive decline was a danger to the country, you reap what you sow

[@rd9759]

I love that every two years the whole world has to hold its breath to see whether or not the fight against climate change will be made a little easier or a lot lot harder.

[@JUAN_OLIVIER]

Not really something most people care about.

[@scoobiusmaximus9508]

@@JUAN_OLIVIER Which is a massive issue. Unlike whether or not trans people can use bathrooms or cancel culture or whatever Republicans actually stand for these days the climate crisis will kill people, and already has.

[@fareflight2029]

There is no political solution to climate change. We either hope we are wrong, we can figure something out to reverse it without cutting global food production, or weather the storm.

[@Brandon-ob8ul]

Climate change. Lol. It's on the list but at this current moment it's not anywhere near the top. That's the prob with dems. Get ur priorities in order.

[@scoobiusmaximus9508]

@@Brandon-ob8ul What exactly is the Republican priority?

[@dailypositivity6659]

This will be interesting to say the least

[@Mr.Nichan]

I bet there were some fun slogans related to Joe Heck's campaign.

[@erez2111]

Hopefully we have done enough to save this channel.

[@PowderMilk69]

Looks like the tables have turned 🎉

[@Music34897]

Good KZbin rule of thumb if the title is a question, the answer is probably no haha

[@sriig]

Can they snatch it? more like, "if they don't snatch it, how will they possibly have fumbled this bag?"

[@marcsandoz2282]

I love all ya'lls channels and watch all the time. If your US channel is struggling in my opinion one way to help that is focus less on elections. Most Americans I know don't like either party. I would focus more on foreign relations, economy, internal happenings etc.

[@hannahg8439]

Good point!

[@TheRameniSBuRNT]

The election videos do the best, just look at the views of the last five videos.

[@marcsandoz2282]

They are free to ignore me then. Not going to compare and contrast video views.

[@deusexaethera]

When I fed my ballot into the counting machine and looked at the readout on the screen, I jokingly exclaimed "...wait...Pat Buchanan?!?" The election official laughed. That made me feel good. It's important to have a sense of humor. Regarding the economy: We're already in a recession, and have been for months. My 401(k) account has lost a significant percentage of its value for 3 quarters in a row.

[@unconventionalideas5683]

We still have the best performing economy in the G7…

[@vanbaguette7368]

Why does it take longer to count in Nevada?

[@SilverState99]

As a Nevadan, I Don't know.

[@relucentsandman6447]

Interested to hear how the channel analytics are doing, is it time to but it to sleep?

[@Mr.Nichan]

It's weird for Pennsylvanians to use the term "carpet-bagger" to refer to people moving to Pennsylvania and trying to take power, even if it is kind of the same concept. I say this because I only knew the term to refer to Northerners moving into the former Confederacy after the Civil War.

[@saahiliyer11]

Never underestimate the Democrats’ ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory! Seriously, why is this party I’m stuck with such a frankenstein mess?

[@George_Wong]

Well you're in luck, because Democrats now managed to snatch victory from the jaws of absolute defeat. Except for the disaster in Florida and the clusterfuck in New York.

[@DreamsOfLiquidSilver]

Saying fetterman struggled to be coherent would be a massive understatement for the debate with oz

[@unconventionalideas5683]

He did okay, considering he had a stroke.

[@DreamsOfLiquidSilver]

@@unconventionalideas5683 have you seen the debate? It was atrocious. "OK for a stroke victim" is not something we should accept as someone who could determine the swing of power in the nation. I'm not a republican either; I am socialist. Unfortunately the alternative is Mehmet Oz.

[@krakken-]

Kind of interesting, Fettermen struggled with a coherent debate and his numbers went down. Walker struggled with a coherent debate and his numbers went up...

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

My prediction: Republicans win 46-54 in the senate flipping NV, AZ, GA, NH although the latter 3 plus PA a consider tossups: In the House, I think Republicans net gain 15-30 seats winning 228-243 seats. Democrats win 192-207 seats. For Governor, Republicans flip NV, WI, Democrats flip MA and MD. OR, KS, and MI are tissues but republicans slight favorites in OR and democrats slight favorites in KS and MI. So 21-29 GOP majority with the GOP flipping OR, NV, WI, Dems flip MA, MD. Republicans net gain 1 seat. For Attorney General, I think republicans flip NV, WI, Dems flip VT. But MN, NV, WI, MI can go either way really. For Sec of State, I think Republicans flip AZ, WI. Everything else remains the same. But NV, AZ, MN, WI, MI, and GA are all competitive. Finally for state legislatures (basing this of Cnaylsis) republicans flip MN state house, that’s it but MI state senate OR state senate, CT state senate, and ME state senate are competitive for either side. For state house, WA, OR, NV, CO, MN, MI, PA, and ME are all competitive.

[@politereminder6284]

I'm from the future 👀

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

@BaltimoreAreaTech ummmmmmmm lol

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

@@politereminder6284 yeah I was dead wrong

[@sithy4330]

Doesn't matter who wins, because we still lose...

[@ralphphone08]

Finally seeing what is happening on the ground? I said for month that the gop will take the senate. All the momentum has been with the goo for 5 months now. Will tldr say that the gop election will be an upset? (Aka more than 51 for the gop)

[@stevenaviles5108]

Why is West Virginia not on the Solid End, 2:16 ???

[@alextodd5487]

Unless/until polling data shows a modicum of accuracy, they shouldn't be used for stories like these.

[@mattschroeder3432]

cool shirt

[@casualsuede]

While the results in the House and the Senate are important, the bigger races are in the state level races. That is where the elections are managed and many in purple states that are bound to win (like Arizona) are election deniers. This will affect elections to come.

[@dingob9637]

Much respect you and your team gave to all nation’s political environment. Thank u.

[@relucentsandman6447]

Praying for a blue wave, but I won't hold my breathe

[@eyesacthroat]

I wish both parties would better cooperate, thats what I want my representatives to do.

[@TimothyCollins]

Sigh. Polls have been so fickle back and forth all year I can't really venture a guess how these things will turn out. I suspect the safe bet is the reps for a win but I hope for a surprise there since the reps are so... disgusting.

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

I wouldn't be hoping for a Dem overperformance, polls tend to underestimate Republicans

[@bellafriend]

imagine calling your opponent disgusting.. lol thats all u got, you can stay in fantasy land then haha

[@rcm926]

​@@bellafriend So Republicans can say whatever they want about anyone else, yet nobody can insult Republicans?

[@TimothyCollins]

@@bellafriend Imagine being part of a group that made fun of an elderly man who was attacked and put in the hospital by a member of their political persuasion but being upset over being called "Disgusting".

[@stevenwilson5556]

@@rcm926 Republicans get vilified and attacked non stop, insulted, harassed, censored, threatened and blamed. Dems never have to do a good job to get glowing unearned praise.

[@peterromeo4379]

Interesting

[@tim01263]

The American system is far too easy to get deadlocked. Needs a radical overhaul!

[@aaronb2779]

Will never happen.

[@SilverState99]

Sure! Lets just have an election to see if Americans want to change it, Then lets have another one asking how they want it changed.

[@sufthegoat]

No

[@that1apple]

At this point Democrats would be lucky to keep either the house or the senate

[@ConnorNolan]

Short answer: no

[@fredmidtgaard5487]

Good thing you were wrong!

[@Daniel-wu2ql]

Nobody talks about Tim Ryan enough he has a shot and seems to be the future of the the party along with Josh Shapiro

[@hs5312]

But Ohio polls always underestimate the republicans

[@nick31427]

There is literally almost no chance he will win. Vance is probably going to take it by almost double digits. I'm from Ohio. Almost never met anyone enthusiastic about Ryan.

[@nick31427]

@BaltimoreAreaTech gubernatorial in Ohio will not be very close at all lol. If you meant senate I also disagree that Ohio will be close but PA I would say yeah 50/50

[@hs5312]

@Daniel who was right me, I told you, Ohio polls underestimate republicans, Vance did about 5 points better than the polling

[@Copyright_Infringement]

no

[@jlstout7807]

It's so weird hearing a british person say "carpet bagger." lol

[@vitoanania6042]

up

[@jorgembn3946]

just good people running in this election

[@frazermckee2649]

tldr news

[@theconqueringram5295]

Well, I just voted, so we shall see.

[@Rizer345]

For this channel I would focus more on Russia and Ukraine but how the USA is contributing

[@dethmin173]

cool

[@frazermckee2649]

ok

[@lug.5329]

The US is heading for a Back-to-the Future.

[@Teag_Brohman15]

I want everybody reading this to go out and vote. I know the polls don't look good. All the more reason to vote. Michael Moore says the polls are wrong. Prove him right. vote. Your vote will cancel out a MAGA voter's vote. No excuses. No complacency. Vote

[@WaspCameraInSpringfield]

"Vote like your life depends on it! because it does" How does this grift still work? People were saying the same thing about Trump in 2016. Do you never learn?

[@pellept0327]

Me reading this as someone who's not American:

[@curtiswfranks]

Georgia could go into another run-off election, which kinda delays results.

[@adam346]

god bless Georgia... the state so f*cking weird it would rather throw it's "Christian" power behind the antithesis of what they stand for because a Democrat represents it better.

[@myvids5306]

I’m sad cuz looking at this video and the past ones TLDR is probably gonna end this channel cuz it’s not even getting good views for the election like they said :(

[@SimplyWaffleOfficial]

Comment for the algorithm :)

[@Ma_ksi]

Why didn't you mention that Oz killed 300 dogs and a litter of puppies. Literally comic vilan.

[@Bingiisyaboi29]

Bruh America 💀

[@blitzkrieg1941]

How could they not win

[@mister_i9245]

ROEVEMBER

[@fareflight2029]

@@mister_i9245 This is the first time I've heard this phrase and I gotta say it sounds like the most astroturfed thing ever. Nobody in the actual swing states cares about abortions more than the economy.

[@blitzkrieg1941]

@@mister_i9245 ?

[@miliba]

I do want the Reps to win but the Supreme Court's action on abortion was unnecessary because they pushed many moderates away

[@dinamosflams]

by most people voting for candidates on the other side

[@mysticmarble94]

For the algorithm 👋

[@williamhenry8914]

Don't really care who wins as long as they aren't afraid to stand up to Russia

[@williamhenry8914]

@Alexei Smirnoff A majority in both parties want to aid Ukraine, though overall support from Dems is a little stronger.

[@zachariahmagallan5738]

More based news for liberals

[@nipaimmonen1244]

Obligatory algorithm comment

[@luisduron2722]

2024

[@quintiniusgrin]

Comment for the algorithm

[@spencerokeefe438]

Fun fact: if the title of a video is a yes or no question, the answer is "no"

[@byzic2k936]

😂

[@ZekeorSomething]

My prediction is that Democrats end up with 49 seats and the Republicans win a total of 50 seats with a runoff happening in Georgia. Walker will win the first round but Warnock will win the runoff

[@MartelSays]

short answer: no. long answer: noo

[@robertm.8653]

You got this Dems! Go blue 💙

[@walkingcarpet420]

Lol

[@explodingwolfgaming8024]

Commenting 4 algorithm

[@YancoxD]

Bye American Democracy 👋

[@JUAN_OLIVIER]

Funny how delusional you leftists are

[@elijahstewart1677]

You will not be missed

[@user10572]

You’re all interesting. Anyway what are your thoughts on the new Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 video game?

[@drsuikoden3850]

Comment

[@redsamson5185]

did he say he wanted republicans in his snatch?

[@LionRafale]

I would favour the Republicans to win both cause I have no hope or faith in the American people

[@OkarinHououinKyouma]

Republicans are anti war party now

[@peterdisabella2156]

Democrats aren't exactly a prize either. Their confused economic policies could do alot more damage than the republicans dumb antics.

[@Nobleheart111]

If Republicans don't win both the House and the Senate, I will have lost all faith in America, in general.

[@natenae8635]

Actually the Republicans would essentially have the ball in there court if the Democrats play it well. It will be Republicans responsibility to pass nation and people saving legislation if they don’t they’ll get slandered.

[@davidty2006]

Americans are sure dumb. Despite the entire south and west being litterally destroyed by storms or on fire

[@bluestarsaberstarwarsfan3838]

I hope the Democrats will at least keep the senate

[@rithinkrishna2817]

First

[@christopherlew6995]

first

[@rithinkrishna2817]

Me first

[@SpartanChief2277]

Red wave

[@brandonmoore1193]

You need an American to read over your scripts. Georgia we will very likely not know until December because it's a good chance it will go to a run off. I assumed when you made a big deal about when will we know that would have been a key point, not mail in ballots in Nevada.

[@franekkkkk]

Good luck to the dems. Please vote democrats everyone! We can’t lose anymore or america will collapse. What was that Georgia coverage? All of the things you’ve showed didnt concern Warnock.

[@JUAN_OLIVIER]

LOL

[@franekkkkk]

@@JUAN_OLIVIER Yeah i know… i hate the dems but i hate republicans even more.

[@WaspCameraInSpringfield]

"We can’t lose anymore or america will collapse." Democrats make this claim every single time there's an election.

[@franekkkkk]

@@WaspCameraInSpringfield and even though i hate them they are right lol did you forget about january 6 already? Half of all republican candidates believe that the election was stolen

[@WaspCameraInSpringfield]

@@franekkkkk The January 6th mob killed precisely zero people (which is one less innocent person than Alec Baldwin has killed).

[@hellboundchaoscommand7567]

How the fuck can they not snatch the midterms

[@walkingcarpet420]

Hell yeah go red wave go go go! We need covid tribunals!

[@soundscape26]

Good luck to every candidate with a D next to it!

[@kid_pigeon]

Can we not have extremists elected on both sides, thanks

[@lucaslevinsky8802]

No Centrism sucks

[@Chrissy717]

Democrats and extremists, lol

[@c0ya1]

@@lucaslevinsky8802 I rather have centrist leaders than far left or far-right extremists. Both fringes are trying to destroy this country, and need to be cleaned out of office.

[@karlfranzemperorofmandefil5547]

The democrats are a moderate right wing party, while the reps are a hard line radical far right party.

[@timteichmann6830]

Sry but the democrats are very very tame in comparison to Republicans. They are pretty pretty moderate

[@peterdisabella2156]

Best case scenario is for Dems to win the senate and Republicans to win the house. Keeps these idiots from messing things up anymore.

[@franekkkkk]

You’re dumb if you think that republicans should be put anywhere near power

[@--julian_]

I'm curious how do you think that the dens have messed anything? imo they haven't really done much other than the executive orders (which don't require congress)

[@franekkkkk]

@@--julian_ trur