China Stock Market: Year Of The Dragon Or Dead Cat Bounce?

The China stock market has been bearish for the past three years, but could we see signs of recovery in 2024? With valuations even lower than those during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, investors eyeing turnaround opportunities are turning their attention to China and Hong Kong, drawn by its highly attractive valuations. In this episode, we discuss potential opportunities in undervalued Chinese and Hong Kong companies, the key risks to be aware of, and how to take advantage of a bear market.
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[@gayytan2824]

Yes this is a good and timely reminder to be more steadfast and less emotional. Thanks guys

[@degeelee7758]

Thanks for the video! I'm one of those who invested in China about 2 years ago. Now that the investments have gone way down (more than 60%), I'm being advised to sell off and rebalance. After watching this I'm wondering if I should wait a while more.

[@viktorcojocaru5411]

KWEB has such a clear bearish chart (monthly or weekly), it could go on like this for years in the absence of a catalyst to lure the money back. Of course, there may be a strong jump eventually, but nobody knows when, it could be dead money for years.

[@awakenedspirit7947]

Demand needs to come from the West. They don't want to touch China. All move money to Korea, Japan and India

[@chen3956]

I'm so glad you made this video. Also glad you released it. This information is very interesting. Thank you.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

You're most welcome, Chen!

[@SaviorGCA]

Many hk share have high dividends, that are large cap..and safe to invest.. furthermore buying hk shares dividends are not being taxed..unless some China share that tax around 10%of your dividends.. China are cheap to buy,hold for 10year, I already sell my Facebook share to buy in hk dividend shares..

[@isaacong1281]

Able to share on some of the china dividend companies that you all are looking at which is listed in HK?

[@meklavier4664]

If you have observed the latest headline from bloomberg you know that china share will rally. Bloomberg for the first time in many years is positive for china stock market. Meaning all the big fund house has already buy in

[@LucasBenjamin-hv7sk]

Biggest lesson i learnt in 2023 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

[@louischen2109]

The year of the dragon is very different from the year of all the different animals, basically the dragon can be said to be mysterious creature. It is uncertain of the physical existence and therefore the characteristics is "uncertainty". It is hard to predict any areas of concern. By careful and cautious in your move, taking big risk is not advisable in the year of the dragon. Those who think they can understand this mysterious dragon, will end up greatly disappointed. You can play with all the other animals, physically in existence, but not the dragon. Perhaps this is how the year of the dragon will be, with lots of uncertainty.

[@EricaLiu-ys2pd]

I have already seen too much uncertainties in previous years of other animals, so am not scared of the year of Dragons

[@mazlanyusoff3046]

Thank you for sharing to all 3 of you. It has been very helpful. Huat Arr!!!

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Thank you! Glad it was helpful!

[@DDn3wAC]

Im 25% china/emerging markets and 75% short-term US treasuries. Pretty much tells you what I think 😅

[@brp361]

Still better off being in US stocks. US stocks generally have a steady rise up long term, whereas Chinese stocks tend to have massive crashes, then big bursts upwards, and crashes again. Not good for long term wealth generation, but gambling. As Buffet said, many people fail to become wealthy because they do not want to "get rich slow". Hang Seng was higher 25 years ago than it is now, while living coasts are multiples higher. This is absolutely insane.

[@csy7373]

Wonderful clip. Great summary and perspective.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Thank you!

[@jk35260]

There is no easy way for China to solve the property crisis. On one hand, issuing more loans to developers could help them complete their projects and deliver the homes to the buyers, which could ease some of the social and financial tensions in the market. On the other hand, issuing more loans to developers could also increase their debt burden and risk exposure, and exacerbate the oversupply problem in some regions. Latest figure, property sales are still dropping significantly. While savings are high in China, net worth of many Chinese housholds has been negatively affected by the falling property prices. Most of household wealth is concentrated in housing asset - about 70%. I think this is one of the main factor contributing to the widespread negative sentiment in China. I don't think recovery can happen without an effective solution to address the property crisis. Furthermore, this is not the only structural issue that China is facing.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Good points. Thanks for sharing!

[@jk35260]

@TheFifthPersonChannel There is an assessment by an analyst interviewed by CNA not too long ago. The property glut will take a long time to clear and estimated that it will take around a decade to clear the excess inventories. He also highlighted that past measures are not working. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qHa4l2iomZ2qjZIsi=iZlQb483z_Mdl-cK

[@responsiblefinance9051]

Please inform about China stocks

[@Roy_0692]

Oh! A new video on Mon! Have been waiting for this video! Liked!

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Thanks, Roy!

[@richardkhua1769]

Wealth transfer from inpatient to patient

[@MARS-ob7eg]

Such U turned is scary, trust already affected in such way

[@Max-li6cm]

Great sharing as always

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Thanks Max!

[@dominic1988]

guess we can only treat it as a common thing and just look at it as a long term investment but with a longer horizon

[@leodass]

Thank You guys for the informations

[@angtenglai1097]

If you have 20k to spare would you buy Cathay Pacific airlines or wh8ch company? . Thank you

[@brp361]

If you look at the price action over the long term, Chinese stocks seem to be dependent on Fed easing, whenever the fed eases/cuts/QE, Chinese stocks go a big run. In essence, if the fed starts easing, load up. Otherwise wait.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Interesting!

[@whis5448]

25:00 the best advice in 2024!!

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Always a good reminder!

[@summergal9110]

I m doubtful if the 4% growth declared is the real state

[@DDn3wAC]

I think the next 500 points are up not down for China

[@MountainHermit99Years]

If the foreign funds are still leaving and China economy is still bad, I dont know what to expect next. It is cheap but fundamentals and sentiments are really bad. China has to rebuild confidence and that they have stable and investment friendly policies.

[@biaofo5258]

Where the whole government policies and geo politics are pretty much depends on one person decision, that's a very high risk for investor. Hence I think it's not wise to invest in China market, including Hong Kong

[@jaydenneo]

Invested in Alibaba/Tencent/Xiaomi a week back. Will come back in a year's time to see the "harvest" 😂

[@ignatiusee3564]

All in lah. Opportunity of a lifetime. No risk no rewards.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Don't all in!

[@ignatiusee3564]

Rusmin say don’t scared so all in lah! 😊

[@CsalbertCs]

What does he mention to buy at the end? At around 28:15

[@kimiversen4655]

Great discussion. Thank you 👌

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Thanks for watching, Kim!

[@prasitjaiyayong938]

you talked same as everything in my mind, thank you guys. atleast i have friends here.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Bro!

[@AlvinLai-k5z]

All in ping an 2318 n baba,hold for long time 🎉

[@kevinho4504]

Make no mistake - China equites will move aggressively up this year on the year of dragon. Don’t underestimate the Dragon year. I am extremely bullish in 2024 and 2025.

[@JamesDeanDiedIn1955]

Sell house, take loan from ah long, margin loan from broker Go all in Heat ah

[@chrisw3492]

Why?

[@manuvns]

Dream too much 😂

[@taeyeonist1462]

copium

[@Wensan2011]

Can't wait. Everything is possible if Chinese gov wants it. At the end it's just a number. They can't put any numbers...

[@aarontan6802]

Hi, may i know the etf 2800 tracker fund of hk and 3115 ishres core hangseng index etf, are they track the same Index? because i'm confuse as one mention its benchmark is Hang seng index while another is HSI Net Total Return Index. Hope you able to clear my doubt. Thanks in advance!

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Hi Aaron, from the Hang Seng Index website: 'Stock market indexes such as the Hang Seng Index are price indexes (also called capital indexes), which only measure the price performance of the index's constituents. Dividend payments are not included in index calculations. In contrast, TRIs take both price changes and dividend payments into account.' www.hsi.com.hk/eng/indexes/all-indexes/totalreturn So they are essentially the same. Hope this helps!

[@aarontan6802]

@@TheFifthPersonChannel i see. Thank you for the clarification !

[@murrey1976]

Which China tracker fund are u referring to?

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong

[@okaylexchannel2519]

I see the title "dead cat bounce" i need to ask.Are we going to easily use the phrase "dead cat bounce" easily now? back in the day when we say dead cat bounce there is a very big reason for the cos. to BK. CHINA is 2nd largest market in the world and just like that its going away!!!

[@90vps]

Hi Fifth Person, in your previous roundtables for China Stocks, you mentioned that you're considering to make a valuation video on Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD and other chinese tech companies, would you mind to elaborate what valuation you guy using for these tech companies? Is it PE, Price to operating cash flow or other valuation?

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Typically P/E or P/CF

[@90vps]

Thanks for the reply. Any would appreciate you can do a valuation video to let us have more insight for chinese tech companies especially Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan & JD which was mentioned many times in this and previous video. Thanks again

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Sure, we'll consider it!

[@KenliaAdventures]

Hihi what are the ETFs mentioned in the video?

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Hi! Tracker Fund of Hong Kong

[@StevenTong-sy9gg]

The US had been printing an unprecedented amount of $$ into its economy. That distorted the market a lot and explains the "fast" recovery. China is in the midst of deleveraging and restructuring its economic model, which is no longer relevant for the next 20 years. This is a long, painful process but wise in the long term. The western narrative driven by the US against China also adds to the bad sentiments. Kishore Mahbubani's book on China helped me to overcome the negative take on China and invest in quality HK listed companies with a 5-10 years horizon.

[@DerrickTay88]

That's a really good point that I didn't notice.

[@yenvee9922]

Whether Mr Kishore has invested, may be through Aggregate Management...in China...if yes what percentage?

[@hc5431]

The Emperor needs to step down before there's any light at the end of the tunnel.

[@nickdoggett6443]

Another great video guys. Well done. To me I would feel that China is on the cusp of a bullish phase. Its been down so long and valuations are relatively cheap, with much room to move up. Dragon or otherwise, the fundamentals don't lie. As for US stocks I wouldn't go near them. They're so high and many are artificially inflated, I believe that a serious pullback ( I don't say crash) is imminent.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Thanks Nick! Everyone pretty much agrees China is currently cheap; the question is if/when it will rebound. Interestingly, when it comes to China, some believe it never will.

[@Branch7ShuZhi]

Key is companies are making good profit and giving out good dividends. This is a good time to look at quality of the companies that are financially strong. US market is over-valued and will soon crash or drop to reasonable level.

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Paid to wait!

[@thinking8736]

buy the blood no? :)

[@bigno1900]

All in and selling my wife and dog too

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Does she know??

[@MrBluehorizonsugar]

@@TheFifthPersonChannelhe doesn’t have 😂😂😂

[@billygoatgamer8269]

What index did he say?

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong

[@Paper8484]

Is it ticker 2800?

[@thomasinvest7139]

@@TheFifthPersonChannelIs the Ticker 2800?

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

Yes, 2800

[@panamood7455]

You guys forgot the slowest recovery…. Japan took 25 years to go back to its peak 😅 I love china And its people desire to thrive, that will be part of the success, when it finally comes

[@rpj341]

Everything is red! So is the China market 😂

[@TheFifthPersonChannel]

An upmarket is actually represented by the color red in mainland China

[@rustler160]

Things work differently in a communist state like China. The PRC doesn't follow the rules - they make them. So good companies can continue to suffer because of it.

[@szejie7890]

Chairman interview: kzbin.info/www/bejne/iXTIf4eZZruLopY&ab_channel=CNBCInternationalTV

[@MARS-ob7eg]

Your KZbin friends on growth all gone!!!

[@giant108]

Capital market is an integral part of the capitalist system which is 100% incompatible with an opaque authoritarian socialist system. Another key factor of a fair & just capital market is the disclosure issue which is non-existent in a communist system. 資本市場错植於共產黨國家，就是水土不服，一定要出事的，就如今天收拾資本野蠻生長/無序擴張/消灭私有制等等，就是共產黨的本質。容纳民营企业家是共产党邪教的无奈，而消灭民营企业家是共产党邪教的崇高至上的理想，这两句话足与说明一切。