The Avoidable War | Kevin Rudd

We welcomed former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to discuss his book The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette 2022) with CIS executive director Tom Switzer.
The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who has lived and worked in China for more than 40 years. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition”. Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
CIS promotes free choice and individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. CIS encourages debate among leading academics, politicians, media and the public. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper. Follow CIS on our Socials;
Twitter - / cisoz
Facebook - / centreindependentstudies
Linkedin - / the-centre-for-indepen...
📖 Read more from CIS here: www.cis.org.au/
💬 Join in the conversation in the comments.
👍 Like this video if you enjoyed it and want to see more, it really helps us out!
🔔 Subscribe to our channel and click the bell to watch our videos first: / @cisaus
⏲️ Missed this event live? Subscribe to CIS to be up to date with all our events:
www.cis.org.au/subscribe/
📝 Subscribe to CIS mailing list- www.cis.org.au/subscribe/
💳 Support us with a tax-deductible donation at - www.cis.org.au/support/

[@noahbanks7684]

I was in the audience this night. What you don't see in this video because of the cut at 1:02:20 is a final audience question on Australian energy security. After a spiel, Rudd defended Australia's newly elected Minister for Climate, Chris Bowen to which an audience member in the front row shouted 'Joke'. Rudd challenged the audience member saying something to the taste of 'if you want to have a scrap let's go'. This is the cause of the murmur after this cut and Rudd's disgruntled body language.

[@accountantthe3394]

Ok but that question has nothing to do with the subject of the panel, not to mention how deeply disrespectful of the audience(s) to heckle an invited guest there in such manner. Has manners and courtesy not been taught these days?

[@akak-dw2cm]

Thanks for the explanation.

[@seppomuppit]

When he said 'scrap', he was challenging the man to a game of two-square. Rudd played professionally, some years ago.

[@user-zn1ny6kv7p]

100% accurate. Was there too

[@user-zn1ny6kv7p]

was actually pretty funny. He always gets the shits.

[@lizgichora6472]

Thank you for your conversation and thorough analysis on War, foreign policy Kevin Rudd and Tom Switzer.

[@stevec9470]

Australians have great sense of humour at times. My 2 cents explanation on why China intend to resume normal trade with Australia is because this gives an opportunity for the newly Australian prime minister to reshape Australian foreign policies on China. Many of the wolf warrior diplomacy are just verbal, it is just like Australian social behaviour so called “have a go at each other”:)

[@milkiasgebreyesus2202]

I still cannot pinpoint what Mr. Rudd stands for or what his prescription is vis-a-vis this issue.

[@AnarchyEnsues]

He's a blow hard without a conviction.

[@choyng5437]

A through and through CCP apologist.

[@adtastic1533]

Rudd stands for Rudd and his position is Kevin Rudd.

[@akhalif68]

I think Rudd has convinced himself that he can play a critical role easing tensions and stopping China & USA engaging in a “Hot War”...

[@AnarchyEnsues]

@@akhalif68 rudd has zero power. This cold war with china is between 🇮🇱 capital and china... Australia is nothing but the mouth piece of 🇮🇱 capital

[@87gob54]

The chinese have infiltrated a lot of Australia from the top down. I have always liked Kevin Rudd, and I still do, but it is easy to see he has a big soft spot for China. I like Chinese people. I studied martial arts with a chinese family and notice that they were money hungry. Money is very important to their sense of identity and power. I know that China is broke, as is America and Australia. The money system never recovered after the 2007 crash and quantitive easing just expanded the problem exponentially. War has always been a way out of financial problems, but the countries are all too broke to be able to sustain a high powered war.

[@michael57603]

If Rudd speaks Chinese then he will have deeper relationships with Chinese people than those who don't. Not sure whether it's a soft spot or not. But it's certainly an advantage for him, and the perception of him internationally.

[@2012meditation]

wow, 'War has always been a way out of financial problems' seriously?! How much has our government spent on the wars? Trillions..... imagine spending that on our infrastructure

[@iznon]

And John Mearsheimer was 100% correct in his assement of China.

[@jasonvanleuven2669]

Excellent discussion with Rudd.

[@arjalanarayan]

Yes

[@budawang77]

Rudd is an impressive public intellectual who is highly respected internationally. It's a pity he isn't appreciated more in his home country.

[@adtastic1533]

What country is that exactly?

[@fergusmurphy8310]

@@adtastic1533 Australia.

[@eddybulich3309]

Maybe because Australians have a good bullshit filter and see him for what he is.

[@netizencapet]

Kevin, I followed the mining superprofits tax campaign closely since the coup against you took you from leadership in 2010. You rearticulated the idea in 2021, but my only criticism is that you didn't fight harder and double down even more on the issue, including when out of office. We (non-Russians) all admire Gorbechev, but it's what he failed to do AFTER his tenure in power that truly defines his failures as a public figure. Revisit the policy that lobbyists couldn't let you get away with.... make it your legacy yet.

[@lc9488]

Wolf warrior diplomacy was a short term reaction to the incessant verbal attacks by the West ,primarily America. China is not stupid to engage in it for ever

[@wanyijiang4940]

How ironically when China say "no" to western countries for her own sake, and the west call it "wolf warrior diplomacy". 中国只不过是挺直腰板，捍卫自己的国家利益，对西方说声不，就被称为战狼。

[@JIANGTG]

The military conflict between U.S. and China is inevitable. It is a matter of time. It is important to note that the initiation of war is definitely not from China. Looking back the history of Vietnam war can fully understand the root cause of the disaster...

[@rjgarnett]

But if its the US tells us what to do we say "yes uncle"

[@HMLi-pz2xu]

That’s how Kevin Rudd find his presence! His role is to keep discussing the phony topics the west accusing China, so he can be seen or used to be a platform focusing in China. Bear in mind, he never in his words attacking China, he is so skilful . Don’t forget if you believed you know China, China also knows you !

[@arjalanarayan]

Time,pass

[@jetnavigator]

Kevin Rudd is right up there with Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden as far as world leaders go.

[@adtastic1533]

LOL!

[@AnarchyEnsues]

As tools for international zio-nism

[@hgft274]

Yea better than that delusional racist dude...forgot its name....that insists everything was stolen from it

[@rogerthat6303]

How can this war be avoided? Just so you know, the coming war cannot be avoided, and it must occur like the "Suez Crisis" with Britain and France in 1956. Explanation - In 1956, both defeated and no longer significant Imperialist Powers, France and Britain, launched their Tripartite Aggression (Britain, Israel, France) against Egypt. After their sneak attack upon Egypt, political pressure from the United States, the then Soviet Union (the successor great powers), and the United Nations led to a withdrawal by the Tripartite invaders. The episode humiliated the United Kingdom and France and forced their reluctant recognition of being ousted from their global positions, which they had held since the Suez Canals' opening. Like all great actors long past their prime, the US has surrounded itself with fawning parasites who cheer every worthless "check" that the US writes. And therefore, no one has suggested the evidence of our cities being filled with block after block of homeless drug addicts, our falling-down bridges, our disgraceful public schools, and our non-existent borders. Taken all together, this means that we will (must) lose the coming war with China, just as France and Britain lost at Suez. Hopefully, we'll only need one or two Suez-type lessons if we're lucky. But only after those lessons. And only after we've learned to save more, consume less, study longer, and work harder than we have become accustomed to doing in recent decades. Will we also learn to respect China and its new world order? Will we learn? Of course, we will not learn anything. We stopped "learning" after Nagasaki.

[@tonybooth4]

Why was my question cut from the recording,????

[@tonybooth4]

@@johh55 I eelcomed Kevin in Chinese, asked about historical rebirth and rejuvenation and the idea of a Chinese XJP new world order, it seems strange since they must have removed 5 mins worth.

[@somethingnew7078]

@@tonybooth4 I've seen atleast 7 videos on their channel with lenght just not exceeding 1:10 .... B/W 1:00 too 1:10 ..... That's why , maybe

[@tonybooth4]

@@somethingnew7078 maybe just weird for people who bang on about free speech, I did introduce myself to Kevin speaking Chinese as we both attended ANU.but disappointed to seethe comments cut becauseKR'sresponsewas interesting

[@tonybooth4]

@@FC-vp9ej no, they have a time limit of 1 hr 10 mins, they invited me for XMAS drinks tomorrow so forgot your suspicions.

[@renemartin5729]

Rudd has some good points but he should stop trying to be funny.

[@arjalanarayan]

End,to PhD,&sex

[@adtastic1533]

What a sell out

[@timford3934]

spy

[@umdisc64]

I will not watch this. It is an unavoidable war.

[@arjalanarayan]

#i my way to bed,with wife&I do,PhD,wen I am wack up

[@rassbombo8136]

Just because he can mumble a few phrases in broken Mandarin Chinese, doesn't mean he is either fluent in the language (he might be but his accent is off), nor that he knows a heck of a lot about what he is talking about. I think he is a joke.

[@guydreamr]

Before earning his doctorate from Oxford, Rudd's undergraduate degree was in Chinese Studies, during which time as part of those studies he achieved fluency in Mandarin. He remains fluent to this day, there is a video of him uploaded just a few months ago on KZbin where he is speaking at length in Mandarin to the Chinese Foreign Minister.

[@christopherbegley6461]

1000 indigenous kids placed in private schools over the last decade. That's 10 per year, hardly a great achievement. Kevin is up to his usual bluster, great at hyperbole but no information of any real value. I remember his days at PM, nothing got done, just spin and hot air with little real action. His press conferences outside his church on Sundays, usually in QLD. just about summed up his time as PM. What was the point?

[@HMLi-pz2xu]

Unfortunately, he attracts a lot of people knows nothing about history especially China, he can bullshit his way out as a ‘ 中國通 ‘.

[@HMLi-pz2xu]

Now you are talking, telling audience honestly how little you know about China, since you study wasn’t deep into communism, how authoritative you talked about ideology differences?

[@peterkerruish8136]

Kevin you still haven't worked out why you got tipped out when you were at your zenith - U tend to dribble on about how special You are... I voted for you m8 but you lost me a long time ago...

[@chrisspeksnijder1717]

Interesting enough. Until the COP crap.....thanks for @noahbanks7684 mentioning it. This whole crap of climate change needs to stop.

[@anothersucker-Youcantfixstupid]

The only thing worse than a poor communist is a rich communist

[@anothersucker-Youcantfixstupid]

The only thing worse than a poor communist is a rich communist.