The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China

NEW YORK, March 23, 2022 - Following an introduction from Singaporean diplomat and Asia Society Co-Chair Chan Heng Chee, Asia Society President and CEO Kevin Rudd delivered brief remarks before discussing the U.S.-China relationship with Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. The conversation was part of the New York launch event for Rudd's newest book The Avoidable War, which examines the past, present, and future of U.S.-China relations and outlines steps the two can take to avoid a catastrophic conflict in the years to come. (1 hr., 11 min.)
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[@michaelho5040]

I think what was suggested here about building a guard rail in the U.S.-Sino relationship is a good idea, especially with the 4 elements built in to it. No one, China included, wants war. That said, however, it seems to me that, once again, the whole discussion centered around how right the U.S. and the West are and how wrong China and everyone else are! My key points are: . Nothing was said and/or explained about the NATO expansion to the East - which is the root of the current crisis. Why it is okay for the U.S. to threaten the World with a WWIII during the Cuban crisis whereas it is not okay for Russia to do so. . Nothing was said about how the U.S. has killed thousands upon thousands of civilians in Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and with Israel doing the same in Lebanon, preventing the Lebanese to have their own homeland and creating waves after waves of refugees there. To the very contrary, western media amplify the deaths toll in Ukraine which by all means pale in comparison from the ones I cited earlier. . For same token, nothing was said about the U.S.'s pivot to Asia with the sole intention to contain China- just as NATO pushing Eastward in Europe. . Nothing was said about the U.S. and the West about their "have the cake and eat it too" diplomacy where they recognize a One China policy, enjoy gaining profits from the 1.4B Chinese but yet keep selling weapons to Taiwan and repeatedly preventing China and Taiwan to be re-united. China has always made it very clear to the whole World that Taiwan is part of China and it will take it back, preferably peacefully. That is China's own internal affair just as Alaska and Hawaii to the U.S. I can guarantee to the speakers that any and every thought of peace around the World is just empty talk from Washington if the U.S. do not recognize its own mistakes, stop violating other countries' sphere of security (as with U.S. in the Cuban Crisis) and start recognizing that there is another system of thought and governing besides the so-called "democracy" a la Americain. If the "democracy" a la Americain cannot prevent Social Inequality, Poverty, Homelessness, Violent Crimes, Failing Education and Infrastructure, Corruption and Pollution, etc... please enlighten me as to why other countries would need to embrace it?? Granted that no system is perfect, but imposing your own to others are really "barbarian", "inconsiderate" and "wrong" to put it mildly. Again... nothing of the above ... and more ....was explained, explored and discussed!! I am not pro-China, pro-Dictatorship or anti-Western. But to bring peace to this World, we need to look ourselves in the mirror, respect others for their governance and accept the differences. We just cannot be one-sided and impose our values to other countries and people.

[@crtordoes]

Well said. Standing on stage telling the audience others do no right and they do no wrong. 賣花讚花香. 😩

[@MrKaypet]

Like you I'm not pro or anti etc., and share your views. So glad you included many valid points. Your last paragraph is excellent and true

[@MrKaypet]

@@crtordoes Kevin Rudd is extra constrained by current popular opinion on Ukraine & Russia, just when his book is coming out for sale.It's pathetic 🙄when Australians who know better behave like 😬this. I live in AU & was born here.

[@sombrerogalaxy1]

Because the baseline framework in which the US led “West” works off of is we are good and they are evil. If we bomb civilians, it’s collateral damage, an unfortunate oops, but if the Chinese do it, they are evil! We use “freedom, democracy” as smoke screen to hide and whitewash our sins, to do work that is the very opposite of freedom and democracy.

[@crtordoes]

@@MrKaypet Absolutely agreed. That’s why I said “賣花讚花香.” Selling praises to boost his books. 😜

[@pauljosephsoh1732]

Kevin missed out NATO who sent ships to the South China Sea. That is why Xi had to get closer to Russia as they have an exponential threat from NATO. Xi had no choice facing Quad and AUKUS also.

[@qake2021]

👌agreed ✌🏻

[@willengel2458]

Quad is a joke after more than a decade of "Pivot" because Japan and Australia are existing allies.

[@bhangrafan4480]

"Who would have guessed war would have broken out in Europe with a Russia invasion of Ukraine...?" I did. It was obvious to me this war was coming 28 years ago. I have expected this war to come, and watched for nearly 30 years events unfold entirely predictably. I did not know exactly where on Russia's borders this would happen. I was rather surprised the US got NATO as far as Ukraine without a war long ago. Anyone who understands the profound shift in the military strategic balance which would be achieved by US military bases in Ukraine would know that no Russian government would accept them. Once Ukraine drifted in NATO it would have been impossible for Russia to do anything, and the US could build up its military position in Ukraine at leisure. Once the US had established its full conventional military potential inside Ukraine Russia would be completely unable to defend itself by conventional means, while nuclear means would be suicide. The Neocons in Washington would have what they wanted, a decisive strategic stranglehold on Russia, which they could use to eliminate Russian obstruction of their actions around the world, through conventional (so credible) military threats. Alost as soon as the Cold War ended the Neocons rejected completely any notion of peaceful co-existence with Russia, in favour of attempting to dominate or otherwise neutralise it. This has been obvious from their actions. Since 2009 and Obama's "Pivot to Asia" it is clear that the Neocons also reject peaceful co-existence with China. Neocon foreign policy is a charter for World War 3 which they have now successfully landed us in. There is now a 50% chance of nuclear war in the next few years.

[@willengel2458]

Ukraine never learned the Georgia lesson.

[@ctrl.s3565]

dude if you predict war for 30 years it's eventually going to happen ..that shouldn't be surprising

[@donnyvu1220]

Malachi Martin predicted it would happen in Ukraine in 1991 interview on Steel on Steel. 😂😂😂 it obvious now that we are doomed.

[@MH-lb4fo]

I strongly disagree with Kevin. Look at what is happening in Ukraine.... Forcing Russia to act and America fought Ukrainians to the last man.

[@pauljosephsoh1732]

Kevin can speak Chinese but he is still Western and a politician. Now, he is speaking to a Western audience to sell his book. I think Ian has a better understanding.

[@Joaquin2028]

Kevin Rudd is the smartest man in the world, according to Kevin Rudd. Thanks to Scott Morrison, he is now the second worst Prime Minister Australia has ever had.

[@SuperSnickerS19of88]

His own biggest fan! Nonetheless very insightful on the topic of China

[@robertseaborne5758]

How does one avoid conflict with a state that knows not how to resolve conflict without resorting to violence?

[@boonteoh7240]

Mr Rudd, OZ poodle of United Sanctions', and his negative views of China!

[@natbirchall1580]

Clearly the concept of a person having his own opinions is foreign to you

[@wesleylee6575]

No, mate. I’m Chinese and I respect Kiev’s well-balanced views based on what I know from ppl within the system.

[@robertseaborne5758]

Common prosperity is more than a Marxist debate/discussion within China, it is a deliberate and determined practical application of Marxist theory throughout China; a practice that has no equal in modern history and which is in stark contrast to what is happening in the US, where poverty is increasing and life expectancy is decreasing.

[@tuw2528]

China has 600 million Chinese people living on $150 per month, commie prosperity isn’t working 😂😂😂

[@robertseaborne5758]

@@tuw2528 yes it is, do your homework more thoroughly, take into perspective time, space, population and progress... and forget the stupid emojis

[@phetsamoutfisso6726]

@@tuw2528 you must got that from serpentza

[@bbharatillusion4574]

@@tuw2528 that is about right in PPP calculation. You would understand better, If you add in the 3 guarantees/ commitment given by the government to the poors there i.e compulsory free education, basic medical treatment and housing security. These are not free too and as you would know in your country, these 3 items will eat up about 50% of what you earned, maybe before tax.. wait.... there are another two 'no worries', direct translation from their language, no worry about food and clothing.. guaranteed...that will be another 30% off your pay, I think. Now, it seems like the USD150 per month is just their pocket money..✌

[@pac1fic055]

I started watching the video and realized his book is out! Got it for my Kindle immediately and reading it now. Will watch video after reading the book. 🙂

[@kcwong8011]

Why is Kevin so long winded? Always beat around the bush. Please come straight to the point.

[@NAes12]

What a world we live in where we have free, timely access to this caliber of discussion on important contemporary issues. Lot of oddball comments here on youtube, this talk was fantastic and informative. Always remember that reasonable people can disagree. Thanks to the Asia Society for putting this on.

[@algung2522]

@Kate Brown you hit the bull's eye with the truthful comment

[@bbharatillusion4574]

@Kate Brown hear..hear..👏 👏

[@kaimingraymondchoi9909]

I wished there were more people like Kevin who truly loves peace instead of war.

[@wutangtang8590]

what verbal trick in the subject. Isn't the reality likes "The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the insecure U.S and entire world"?

[@teetee-jl8te]

Wasted 2 min watching this.😭😭

[@user-ur4dv3ts3f]

i think kavin is in a sinking ship.

[@qake2021]

🖐😝🤣🤣🤣🤣🥳🤡🐒🍌

[@macdowellandrew]

Kevin Rudd, brilliant & super cool!

[@leelajapheth4051]

Russia Vs ukraine starred 2014

[@peterabild1123]

Interesting but pity so few views

[@yoriokuda4792]

So delighted this discussion is happening between two of the most outspoken and intelligent minds on Chinese-U.S. relations, given that Lee Kuan Yew is not with us any longer. Hope it is indeed possible for an unavoidable war.

[@MyKarur]

The questioner was excellent.Internal debate in China is as important as the debate in the west

[@zomgneedaname]

Well I'll be Damned, Kevin Rudd is the real life Luke Skywalker

[@LXTstudio]

Also, when you talk about managed competition you're just describing a market economy.

[@jimmyng2203]

W A R. Big fish eat small fish. small fish eat shrimp....

[@wisdomsamateh4208]

This is a Comedy show

[@bhangrafan4480]

Of course political actors shape events, but they shape them through the various influences and world views they have. Sometimes there are dominant currents of self-interest, external influence and cultural perception (in a wide sense) which shape people's decisions and actions in a very predictable way. We are at a crucial point in history which is where the US has tasted, after the end of the Cold War, the ultimate in global dominance. Now this position is being increasingly compromised by the resurgence of Russia and the growth of China. Those who covet power in the corridors of Washington are not prepared to share the world with these growing rivals and seek now to strangle them in their cradles. The result is a world war for the maintenance of uncompromised US global dominance. This is Operation Canute, the bid to stop history.

[@user-jb1mg7zy4k]

What does "Xi Jinping’s China" mean?

[@wutangtang8590]

U.S and its puppet just like a tamed, docile, weak China which is willing to work in sweatshop, they cann't handle confident, powerful and self-independent China, which is literally "Xi' China" means to them ：）

[@natbirchall1580]

@@wutangtang8590 a real tag team right? Working on the same shift?

[@manaskumarhaldar2725]

Military protocols are not working. Sino Indian border is an example.

[@ctrl.s3565]

half the comments are bots, sounds about right lmao. mention China and they come crawling out

[@robertseaborne5758]

Time to return home to Queensland Kevin; be this as it may, I hope the book sells well...

[@nimajneb02]

You must be a paid CCP shill. Three negative comments on the one video. Get a life mate

[@mikemksuk8301]

What an amazing time to be a Kevin Rudd or an Ian Bremmer. And how lucky we are to learn from them.

[@GlobalDrifter1000]

Mr. Rudd never disappoints with his clearly articulated wisdom.

[@bentray1908]

The strategy should pivot on the desire to encourage The CCP to develop a new dominant political philosophy. Not regime change but evolution. The only path forward is to have a benevolent and enlightened China. Perhaps our strategy should focus on only this one outcome.

[@djsunshine1]

Allowing India to do whatever it needs to balance China is in US interest (including buying weapons from Russia)! India is a frontline support (Facing Chinese boarder...having millions of Tibetans in India ) for US! India would never need 'boots on the ground' from the US in war against China! India is keeping its option open from Russia to sustain Indian defense requirements!

[@jaygold7317]

Romney such a clown lol

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

Sorry for putting it like this ... but ... What is more important: to make Putin pay and cripple Russia and therefore potentially providing an opening for Putin and Russia to, in effect, become ruled by China and be China - extending China into Euroasia and Europe, up to Ukraine's borders and increasing China's land based resources (like rare earth minerals, coal, oil, access to the arctic), production e.t.c.? ... Or ... for the EU (which essentially also includes the US, UK, e.t.c.) to stop squabbling and infighting, which is resource intensive, putting the whole world at risk, risking the start of WWIII, and which is literally destroying those purported to be in need of protection and being protected, to instead to form an alliance with Russia? ... wouldn't that open a gateway for diplomacy and trade with Euroasia and or the Middle East (Russia is part of Europe and Eurasia, as Turkey is part of Europe and the Middle East)? ... If Turkey and Georgia were part of the EU and EU had an alliance or special alliance with Russia ... how would the globe look then? .... proportionally, EU/UK/US compared with China/(Russia) or EU/UK/US/Russia compared with China? How many American bonds is China earning interest from, enough to fund their military? How much does America owe financially to China? ... rules are rules, aren't they? .... or .... How much is China funding America? ... is it, EU/UK compared with China/(US)/(Russia) or EU/UK/Russia compared with China/(US)? "Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons" Was it not agreed to or signed by, Russian Federation, Ukraine, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America? The UK and USA, don't have permission to enter Ukraine, to protect the border? ... Not NATO, but the UK and USA? .... and, because it is in writing, it is something that Russia would object to? I really don't know. I'm asking ... ... would, Crimea, be a stupid place to put the capital of the EU? ... if Ukraine became a member of the EU, and, EU agreed, and, Ukraine and Russia agreed, to Crimea becoming the EU Capital Territory (ECT) or EU Capital District (ECD) or EU Capital (EUC)... or EU Capital Region (EUCR) or e.t.c. ... ? ... with a new purpose built city, Europa or e.t.c. ... ? within that area, becoming the city that is the captial of the EU ... ? ... So that, for example, the capital of the EU would be Europa, in the EU Capital Territory/District/Region? .... (and, the EU Capital, would in addition, have it's own governance - not, Ukrainian or Russian or French or German or Belgium or Polish or Greek or e.t.c. .... ?, but the governance locally of Europa in the EU Capital Region: so that there would be two governments/parliaments: a local government for the actual running of the city/territory, made up of those who permanently live there, and, the government/parliament with all the seats, all the representatives, for all the members of the EU who travel from their own state/country to make decisions/debate/vote? ...) Short version: ... where is the current fighting? ... what is it over ... exactly ...? ... it doesn't look like it might cease any time soon. ... Would it be impossible, in that area, to convert the type ... of war ... from war of might to war of words? i.e. Ukraine retain sovereignty, possibly join the EU, a section of Ukraine (with Ukraine's permission) become the de jure capital of the EU, a buffer area that is Ukraine and Russia ... NATO headquarters remain where they are ... ? and, ... which agreement already assures Ukraines borders? This wouldn't support military goals, with less negative impact on civilians than sanctions or lending/giving military equipment*, and or contribute to long term security, safety and lives of military personnel? *military equipment (that might get scavenged/reverse engineered/sent elsewhere/on sold and or seized? ... and an increased risk, that, doesn't seem like it would be impossible to forsee: friendly fire, and, fingers point, as if otherwise?). ... distance of Ukraine ... possible EU de jure capital, international embassies ... Iranian oil ... ? ... if a section of Ukraine (with Ukraine's permission) becomes the de jure capital of the EU ... the US would need an embassy there ... as would the UK and Russia and e.t.c. ... also, ... de jure capital of EU in Ukraine ... seems like there would be more cameras there then .... ... who can assist with knowledge and wisdom, to turn it into a historic moment? ... peaceful? ... Stay well. Peace. Eleonora Formato née Szczepanowski South Australia

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

... things don't completely make sense ... it doesn't seem like things line up ... there seem to be discrepancies ... trying to understand, to figure out ... Is Northern Ireland, part of the UK or EU ... or, UK and EU? ... Does the UK still exist? ... after Brexit? UK (United Kingdom) of Britain and Northern Island? Britain: England, Scotland and Wales ... ? "The Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit withdrawal agreement commits the UK and the EU to maintaining an open border in Ireland, so that (in many respects) the de facto frontier is the Irish Sea border between the two islands. This requires the continued application of the Common Travel Area as well as free trade of goods (including electricity) between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The latter requires the UK to follow EU law in Northern Ireland with respect to these areas, with jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the interpretation of the law." ... wiki ... If the answer applies to the situation, then, it might apply to another situation or at least be available as a possibility to see, how it might or might not apply ... ? It looks like there are two states in Ukraine who are, at least in spirit, part of Ukraine and Russia? It sounds like the Ukraine government doesn't recognise, those two states, and therefore doesn't represent, Russian Ukrainians in those areas ... ? It sounds like there were peaceful dialogues between Russia and those two states, and agreement, between those parties, otherwise affected, who, from how it seems, were not signatories or parties to Minsk agreements, and who have now written and signed agreements, with a time limit in place. How, is that not, overall contributing, in part, to deescalation of concerns in the actual area and more broadly, for an organisation like UN? It's not against all of Ukraine ... if it is against, it is only a specific part of ... if that can't be recognised, then in question, the individual states of the US compared to the federal level ... or, states/countries in the EU compared to all of the EU ... or ... the countries in the UN ... On a different scale, over a similar region, isn't Ukraine in Europe? Isn't the part of Russia that surrounds the Ukraine, part of Europe? ... So, isn't 'it' all happening, in Europe? Between European countries? Is Russia still a communist country? ... Russia isn't, at the very least, on it's way to being a a democratic country? ... it's not a capitalist type country now? ... Aren't sanctions being applied to businesses in Russia and those living in Russia who are wealthy? It seems like, in away, with the support of other countries, NATO, it is just about all of Europe excluding a part of Europe and with economic sanctions? ... Isn't that a sort of Fascism? If the financial/banking sector in other countries are run by some clever people who are competent, it seems like a shame, there is an attempt to strangle them with sanctions (sanctions: "three phases" ... "deter", "punish", "bankrupt" ... "coup"). I don't know, would asking them, instead, how they are organising things totally a stupid thing to ask? Sanctions ... aren't creating, or contributing to, a sort of Iron curtain ... ? Sanctions, historically, stop military spending? Sanctions don't impact civilians? ... "lesson militarily" ... and "effect of sanctions" ... ? ... seems like actions ... specifically going after civilians for strategic military gain ... seems like actions external to ... what's the administrative law position? ... separate and in addition to that though, what makes it ok to deny, an oligarch use of their property, or a General access to their own money while on vacation? ... if it's state owned or state money, then, they wouldn't be denied? ... where is the line, for denial of property ownership and use? ... a General doesn't necessarily have the wealth of an oligarch - more like, upper middle class wealth, comparable with those of the Chinese upper middle class ... no? I don't know. I'm asking.

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

Some perspective, perhaps, or not? Minimum distance between Britain and Europe: 20 miles (32 km) ... ? Minimum distance between Taiwan and China: 81 miles (130 km) ... ? How did Germany go with taking over Britain in WWII?

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

I might have commented sooner, only, it took a few hours to get internet going.

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

37:31 min ... spininning unclosed circle in the middle of the screen ... for a moment, thought internet services might be down again ...

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

39:08 min ... spinning unclosed circle ...

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

42:05 min ... spinning unclosed circle ...

[@eleonoraformatoneeszczepan8807]

43:11 min ... spinning unclosed circle ...

[@GlobalDrifter1000]

Ian, work on the body language. You look like one of Jerry’s Kids.

[@keesdevos4816]

The one lesson to watch is or China does or doesn't repeat the Russian mistake of contineous leadership (and manipulating everything around him)

[@qake2021]

👌✌🏻✌🏻✌🏻🤝💪🤝✌🏻✌🏻✌🏻👌

[@qake2021]

🤞🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏✌🏻

[@mikemksuk8301]

Kevin Rudd for President of the World 2023.