The December 28, 2024, Southeast Tornado Outbreak: A Meteorological Breakdown

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Forgot to mention this in the video, but thanks so much to @wxKobold on Twitter for providing the storm-centric radar loop of the Port Arthur tornadic supercell.

[@kevinjoyce285]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, i had a feeling that was Kobold! Really cool guy for radar and looping

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@kevinjoyce285 I totally forgot to put his handle in the video, so I added it here.

[@jamessimon3433]

Trey you are an asset to the platform and essential to all of us who love science, particularly weather. I still cant believe that its free to watch your presentations. I imagine its not without cost in time and resources to make content. Not to mention all the people that have no doubt started careers in weather enterprise due to your work. Lets hope 2025 sees a bit calmer skies.

[@piconick79]

I feel like I learnt quite a lot about the process of occlusion just from this radar loop!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@jamessimon3433 I appreciate the kind words; thank you so much!

[@TRGTornado]

Such a fast case study! Event was just 2 days ago! Great video as always!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@MrTankx]

Trg w

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

Yo wsp TRG! love your channel and lucki too ofc!

[@tornadotrx]

Thanks for all your thoughts while we were out Trey. This day was certainly a tough one, always good to see your retrospective!

[@Republic-Studios1]

Yooo TRX!!!

[@kevinjoyce285]

Congrats man on capturing that Bude, MS tornado. Quite wicked! Those shots of the horizontal vortice and that somewhat "octopus" movement it attained proves this could've been violent. I'm in Ireland but targeting Southern MS would've also probably went the same way. If this day had better forcing across the whole area combined with a longer duration of good lapse rates (Like Mesoanalysis showed 6-6.5 for a hour or two), i personally believe we would've seen one HECK of a outbreak. This could've been worse but we avoided that for the most part except Port Arthur and Bude.

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

yeah, I agree, still a bad outbreak, but it feels like it wasn't as bad as it could've been for a few reasons: 1: Long Track tornado missed port Arthur 2: Violent Mississippi wedge didn't hit any really populated areas 3: no prefrontals after dark in East MS/W AL

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

Also wsg trx love ur vids!

[@tornadotrx]

​@@kevinjoyce285 Thank you! That tornado was incredible, and a lot of it was just luck; as Trey noted in the video, the thermodynamic conditions in that region really weren’t looking great for tornadoes. I honestly wonder if some sort of thermal ridge/boundary-which Trey hinted at-played a role in allowing that storm to produce and be long-tracked, despite the sub-par parameters.

[@jacobm2625]

Thanks for the breakdown! I think we should all be thankful that the Dickson to Port Arthur tornado didn't pass trough any heavily populated areas. From the radar alone, it looked like an absolute monster.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I agree! A little jog to the north and it would've been a nightmare scenario for Houston and surrounding areas.

[@1000yeardragon]

Some people got unlucky this outbreak but a lot more got lucky because it wasn't worse than it was and didn't head into populated areas. I feel for those affected but I'm just glad it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

[@SpookyXgamer]

Agreed, if it hit port Arthur it would have been maybe rolling fork or Mayfield horror

[@tcp3059]

37:00 RFD: Tries to occlude tornado Tornado: F*** you, spinny wind go brrrr

[@KylerBroviak]

Trey is on it!! Always enjoy the videos!! Keep it up!!!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@mixa7039]

I drove from Mobile Al to north louisiana that day, which goes straight through where this storm was. I knew it would be bad but went in the morning and timed it just right

[@Aiden_Catman]

I always love theses videos and look forward to them, especially as I learn more about surface maps.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@blueSky1322]

Wow that was fast, hell yea Trey🔥

[@tyburtonwx]

Truly the goat

[@Purinmeido]

That Port Author storm was really interesting with an entire confluence band hanging below it. It reminded me of a reverse TEC.

[@strixedits1579]

Always a treat to hear trey here love ur work u inspire me to be a meteorologist

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Love to hear that; thank you so much!

[@rickwoods8118]

Thank you for the debrief. It's crazy I started following you in February of last year and didn't even know what a QLCS was. When I was following the storms this weekend I was able to spot and identify the QLCS. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and passing it on to us normal folk so we can stay weather aware. Have a Happy New Year and looking forward to more of your weather briefs and breakdowns.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Happy to hear the videos have been helpful for you. Happy New Year to you, as well!

[@anthonyjkenn6319]

Impressive, Trey....only 2 days after the event, and your usual excellent analysis. Between you, Doc Levi Cowan over at Tropical Tidbits, Rob Perrillo of KATC-TV 3 in Lafayette (local meteorologist), and the SPC and NWS Lake Charles and Baton Rouge/New Orleans WFO's, I feel very covered when it comes to the weather. Well done!! Even though we in Acadiana/South Central Louisiana were right in the middle of the action (albeit just south of the main axis of the Moderate Risk area), we ended up somewhat in the middle, split between the micromeso that produced the Dickinson to PA to just south of Lake Charles tornado and the main forcing that would develop just to our north and really blow up to our northeast in Mississippi. We really dodged a bullet, even though we did get some wind and hail; nothing like what other areas got. Maybe a persistent cloud cover and the lack of sun during the day combined with an early winter sunset and the forcing further north muted the event a bit for our area?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words! Yes, I think you were just caught in that "no man's land"...a lack of forcing, quick arrival of the QLCS from the west, and perhaps a slightly less potent environment than was forecast seemed to keep that area in the clear for the most part.

[@xerosfs]

no way, we live in the same place!

[@LukeDoubleM]

i live in league city texas, don’t was awesome when they were forecasting the tornado’s path and showed it coming right for my neighborhood

[@jeredjohnson5300]

Wow I'm genuinely mad impressed by your speed, thanks for doing what you do

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@samuelabbott931]

I remember seeing normalized cape at .25 in eastern Texas and being taken back by that right before the port Arthur tornado took off. Great analysis

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@AbramScarbrough]

Mississippi I-55 corridor was loaded with tornadoes.

[@jamessimon3433]

Enjoyed the talk Trey. Thanks for presenting all this data in a succinct fashion.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@wayloncapps9480]

Well that was quick!! Great case study Trey!! Thanks

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@LeviW133]

This event definitely lived up to the forecast with most of the tors in the MDT risk Area and great video trey

[@christinawalker6356]

except for the houston ones...😭😑 i was so relieved not to be in the moderate risk until a tornado was right next to me

[@LeviW133]

Yeah you certainly gotta watch no matter what risk your in

[@christinawalker6356]

​@LeviW133so I've learned lol, the tornado by me was (i think) the first one of the whole event, and I dont think anyone was expecting it ☠️

[@LeviW133]

At least you didn't get hit ​@@christinawalker6356

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I, too, think the forecasts performed pretty well.

[@miller4190]

Wow that was fast, Trey. Thanks!

[@StevenHousewright]

Live in Fairhope, Alabama on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay - it was crazy. Thanks, Trey!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

You got some decent action in your area, as well! Glad you made it out ok!

[@zal88]

another great video! thank you for all you do

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@imjustaboredperson9116]

Went through my first tornado ever to this outbreak, it was like 8 minutes away but still I’ve never been more scared in my whole life!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad you made it out ok!

[@hgbugalou]

Here near Memphis, TN we missed the severe threat but we had a prolific rain event from this system. It seems a line of convergence setup right over the city and the suburbs to the south in MS and just sat stationary for a couple hours. We had 2 or 3 cells rotate in from the south right into that convergence and the atmosphere just wrung them out completely. In my backyard I got 4 inches in less than an hour and the storm totals approaching 6 inches in places, all in just a few hours time. Easily the heaviest rainfall rates I have seen just visually too in quite a while which is impressive in December. There was a lot of flooding and closed, underwater roads and I think there was sadly a fatality. I'm not sure exactly drove it meteorologically because I was busy and couldn't look in detail beyond radar scope, but it was an impressive event.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I haven't looked too much into the heavy rain side of things, but I bet strong forcing in multiple rounds and ample moisture overrunning the warm front was partly to blame.

[@hgbugalou]

@@ConvectiveChronicles It was HIGHLY localized. While the northern end of this system produced widespread heavy rain, it was nothing unusual. The super heavy stuff was limited to a column that went through 3 counties and was only about 10-15 miles wide. It just so happened that was right over the Memphis metro urban and suburban population centers. All the pavement and concrete aggravated the run off too. Very evident some sort of boundary was in place enhancing the lift for a couple hours over the area, and like you said, lots of moisture.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@hgbugalou Hmm, interesting

[@lukas-jl3tx]

i live up in central arkansas but was visiting percy quin state park right outside of mccomb for this. definitely scary but cool

[@krzy1867]

As always, incredible analysis Trey, especially on the southeast Texas supercell, however I think there’s a key point missing with the Mississippi part of the event that wasn’t taken into account during the forecasts, and that is stubborn, consistent convective development in the gulf On every run the HRRR and other models killed off any gulf convection by morning, allowing for 1500-2500J/KG of instability to advect all the way into central Mississippi even behind such a potent round of morning storms which was well forecast, but instead, instability never returned at all to the east of about Baton Rouge LA, which makes me think that it’s no coincidence that’s about where the western edge of the gulf convection was located

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; good point. SE winds over MS would've pulled somewhat rain-cooled air NW into that region

[@laureng6412]

Oh yeah let's gooo 50 mins of my favorite weather yt channel

[@JustinHindman1988]

I was out chasing, their was such a great dry shot in central Louisiana and it just didn’t happen their. Texas cell was the one and no one could ever guess that!

[@Randomsportsfanforum]

I was hoping for a video on this. I was able to get a picture of this tornado. It was bittersweet because it’s been my dream to chase and see a tornado, but it sucked that the only reason I got to is because one hit my area. Here in Southeast Texas we are extremely lucky this storm stayed in the Marsh mostly.

[@sethcourtemanche5738]

The Dickinson Texas tornado was definitely the strongest tornado of the outbreak

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes, easily

[@ThePwig]

I love how good prediction has gotten lately. This was accurately predicted well ahead of time.

[@tornad0scope]

Thanks for this info I’m putting this into my video I’m making I’ll give you credits for this info!! ❤❤

[@1000yeardragon]

One of the tornados in south Alabama came to within a couple of miles of my parents' house, they said the wind got really bad for a little bit but at the time they didn't realize a tornado had touched down right up the road. Scary stuff, especially after my mom and I were almost killed in a tornado when I was 5 years old. One thing I don't play around with is bad weather.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Wow, glad they made it out ok!

[@1000yeardragon]

@ConvectiveChronicles thanks, yeah me too, it was kinda scary for a little bit but I'm just glad the outbreak wasn't any worse

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

Great case study trey! Can't wait to see 2025 tornado season predictions!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I'm interested to start diving into that data here soon!

[@EagleScoutEDC]

I live in the Houston Metro area. We one of those tornadoes was pretty close to where I live.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad you made it out ok

[@jacksonyon5276]

Very interesting day. Nice analysis. Still waiting on the 2010 northern plains outbreak 😄

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! It's coming...not sure when, but we will definitely get to it at some point.

[@Misei-i2w]

The Bude MS tornado was definitely the hallmark of the midsection of the primary risk with strong to violent motion and unusual horizontal carousel motion (captured by Jordan Hall), will have to see what the observed DI for church was. Great breakdown.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Looks like they have preliminarily rated Bude EF2...we'll see if it gets upgraded.

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

That church damage is only ef2? Weird. I would assume they upgrade it

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@JacobGrant-r7y It probably comes down to construction quality, as it often does in rural portions of the Southeast

[@JesseLikesWeather]

I witnessed (sort of) my first tornado on the night following the outbreak. It was at around 2:08 AM CST when I was looking out my front porch, lightning flashed, and I saw a black figure in the darkness.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Wow, nice!

[@alexhedden1724]

Was heading home from vacation and was in the eastern edge of the tornado warning near Alexandria at 8am. Couldn’t see any structure due to the fog/milkiness of the clouds.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

A chaser who was in that area told me the same thing. The low-levels were pretty saturated at that point, so it makes sense there was quite a lot of low clouds/fog.

[@mikeprima7555]

We just got our electricity back on after a tornado 🌪️ passed in St . Landry Louisiana in Evangeline parish sounded like a freight train in our back yard

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Wow, glad you got your power back

[@mikeprima7555]

@ConvectiveChronicles yep I'm glad as well still have lots of tree branches in the yard 2 pick up but the house made it out of the tornado just fine

[@joshuaoconner2073]

Interesting to note the micro surge in the RFD from the velocity data during the Port Arthur storm. It happened directly behind the tornado right as the "failed occlusion" took place. It almost seemed to nudge the tornado back to the parent meso, allowing it to complete the gyro and continue on. Thoughts on this?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Definitely plausible

[@gamingwitharlen2267]

Great Video! However I still have a few questions remaining after the video. 1) Is there a reason why the instability under performed after the morning convection in MS? 2) In the LA portion of the OWS, I remember there being forecast about 2000-3000 J/kg of ML with a decent forecasted lapse rates of around 7ish C/km throughout the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere and the forecasted 3cape of 100-150 J/Kg by the HRRR on the day of the event. Why couldn't the storms sustain in that kind of a good thermodynamic environment even despite the weak forcing? Is stronger forcing completely required, or was there another limiting factor? 3) Why was the Bude MS supercell able to sustain in MS, while storms in LA struggled despite a more unstable environment?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

1) There just wasn't enough time to destabilize between the morning round and the new storms later on. It also seems like a little bit of cloud cover stayed around in that area, hampering destabilization. 2) The problem is that we didn't end up getting that quite that good of an environment across Louisiana. The forcing issue was the main issue for that area; by the time the forcing fully arrived, the QLCS was already overtaking the warm sector supercells. There are really two main components to warm sector supercell development: focused forcing to initiate the storms and synoptic scale forcing to keep them going. Strong WAA and confluence bands were able to initiate the storms, but we just didn't have enough midlevel "oomph" to allow them to persist and reach their ceiling. 3) As I illustrated in the video, it looks like the Bude supercell was right on a little boundary that might've added a bit of extra juice for that storm compared to elsewhere.

[@13_cmi]

Dang 2024 decided to go out with a bang.

[@ks86z]

Dang!!! Quick ! Heck yeah

[@Wabby21]

I was in both the tornado warning in cypress TX both in 12/24 and on 12/28 and both days we weren’t even in the tornado watch areas. Took us by surprise especially those who only watch the news because they all said that the only real threat was north of 10 and east of 45! Fortunately both days they lifted before it got to us. Unfortunately it went on to hit New Caney / Splendora!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Both of those cases were great examples of staying aware regardless of the risk category you're in. Glad you made it out unscathed both times!

[@wx_fitz2024]

Wouldn’t even consider this a huge underperformance, when you can consider a record was broken for the highest SBCAPE value measured at Lake Charles for the month of December ever, as well as still having a widespread tornado outbreak across the Lower MS Valley. Definitely one of the more notable severe weather outbreaks as of late

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

I would say very slightly underperformed, just because a lot of the tornadoes were from the QLCS. Louisiana underperformed and Mississippi as well besides the Bude tornado and the QLCS.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, I don't think this was an underperformance at all; I think the forecasts were pretty good as a whole. I just think it could've been a lot worse had some of those mitigating factors been out of the picture.

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

I take it back, Mississippi didn't underperformed, but the central/ eastern Louisiana corridor definitely lacked tornado reports.

[@Republic-Studios1]

I was hesitant to say it the day of but it definitely didn’t preform like it could’ve NOT to say i wasn’t very bad it could’ve been worse. The Athen cell caught my eye but i glanced away at it the night of shocked it produced though.

[@Meathead72]

What website do you use to find archived soundings from specific days? I wanted to do some digging on my own for past events.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I use the SPC severe thunderstorm events archive for observed soundings. For archived RAP soundings (and observed soundings, for that matter), I use the SharpPy desktop application: github.com/sharppy/SHARPpy

[@Meathead72]

@ Thank you

[@Chinemeremdozie]

have you made a video of the May 30th tornado outbreak in Maryland even though the biggest was a ef 1

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

May 30 of what year?

[@Chinemeremdozie]

@ConvectiveChronicles 2024

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@Chinemeremdozie No tornadoes occurred in Maryland on May 30, 2024.

[@ks86z]

I was thinking maybe supercells ahead of line, kind of like Oklahoma last month with those 3 EF3s. Not a favorable environment though eh?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, just not quite enough juice to get them to do the same as the ones on Nov 3

[@sean8363]

I’m in very very northwestern Shelby County in Texas and the single county road out of my area was completely flooded after nearly 4 inches of rain not long before I think I had 3 separate weather radars going, watching Ryan Hall as well, and I’m now counting all my lucky stars that nearly all of this system went out and around my town and spared my dog, myself, the horses and the donkeys i fucking hate tornadoes dude

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad you made it out ok

[@kevinjoyce285]

While it was certainly a day i wish i would've targeted SE TX for, my hypothetical target of Southern MS would've resulted in seeing that crazy wedge near Bude. I personally think longer duration of better lapse rates played a part in our big uptick with tornadoes around 3pm. Had lapse rates remained a bit longer for a good few hours, I'd argue quite the outbreak would've occurred. I'm thoroughly interested on the Port Arthur supercell and probably guessing there's gonna be a little explanation for it in the video. Seems like you put this out rather quick too jsut noting haha, also what was your reaction to some of those scans from RadarScope from the Port Arthur cell. I was legitimately in awe with its longevity and intense velocities. This is a prime example of how effective mergers can get. I actually noticed the RFD surge even it became more of a embedded supercell towards the end of its life. Very classic tornadic supercell, may get a study imo

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That Port Arthur storm was pretty crazy. Textbook long-track tornadic supercell via storm interactions.

[@daver00lzd00d]

"now that we've had a day or so to decompress..." Trey decompressing: 🤴 spending hours on making one of his grade A breakdown videos for a bunch of random internet strangers the goat just can't quit goating! 🐐

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha thank you so much!!

[@daver00lzd00d]

@ConvectiveChronicles of course! also, when you were talking about the failed occlusion and paused it, on the reflectivity side it showed what I think was some BWER type circle but also displaced from where it normally would be and also not lined up with the TVS. dunno if you noticed since you were mostly focusing on the velocity side for the video. I'll send the timestamp

[@daver00lzd00d]

36:28 is when you see it really good

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@daver00lzd00d Ah, I see it. I suspect it's just a little bit of precip in that region and isn't really representative of a true BWER indicating the vortex.

[@daver00lzd00d]

@@ConvectiveChronicles yea I didn't mean it was a BWER, just didn't know how to describe it 🤣 wasn't sure if it was some kind of debris ring but it looks too perfect to be

[@JudyMenzel7]

Crazy, over-producing system!

[@DJ-iu5bb]

we got hit with a i think 3 Tornadoes it wasnt bad but alot of Rain and Wind in South Carolina thank god it didnt get us in Myrtle Beach

[@oAssault]

i can tell you right now the reason more tornadoes didn’t happen in central louisiana was because i chose to chase that area

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

Yo wsp trey! Overall, do you think this event over or underperformed? I would say just met or very very slightly under.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I would say the event overall lived up to forecasts pretty well.

[@JacobGrant-r7y]

me too, without the texas supercell, probably under, because a good amount of the tor reports were from the qlcs and not discrete cells. What was scary is around like 3-4 pm there were several cells popping up in LA/MS and it looked like there would be numerous strong to violent tornadoes, thankfully that didn't completely come to fruition.

[@KreekCraftsDad]

@@ConvectiveChronicles agreed. just more sig tornadoes occurred outside of the enhanced/moderate than we would've thought.

[@Sciencetor728]

Hey everybody it’s TREY…

[@peanut4998]

mfw this outbreak was the one that pushed us over 2011 in terms of tornado count

[@MightyMuffins]

As I said on X....This was one beefy outbreak to close out 2024 and get us into the #3 spot ever for a tornado season. Over 100 tornado warnings and 200 severe thunderstorm warnings. Some pretty strong tornadoes around Bude, MS and the long track Port Arthur tornado...well 3 tornadoes it spawned as a storm from Dickenson, TX. As far as I am aware I was one of the few WX people at 3am awake on X and informing about the Montgomery, AL tornadoes.....many said the event was done past 11pm and it seemed like many of the YT people shut it down as of midnight. I get it but we were still in a prime environment and it took a bit but that was storm produced 7 tornadoes and TDS sigs that were clear and I had the WSFA stream up and they had the direct NWS chat and the NWS said the radar took a direct hit from one of the twin tornadoes but luckily was operational....turns out the site did sustain some damage...no surprise as that tornado you could see it disappear into the radar black hole..... I fully thought expected the SPC to push the high risk at some point past the 1am outlook. I caught shit on twitter by one or 2 people from me expecting the High and not so much hyping it but more so how I was 40-60% expecting it. I wouldn't say I was too far off as the SPC was absolutely thinking it and I bet they were close to doing it as the discussions said it 2 times. I think in the end this can be considered a high MDT and it lived up to it. This was as close to a high risk one can see leading into an event so I think I wasn't too off but the SPC kept it MDT but they are the king forecast office for a reason.....next to the NHC. Those 2 have the top of the top forecaster with NWS Norman at a solid #3. Anyway, this event as you said Trey could have been sooooooo much more. Holy shit, the fact we saw the soundings we did in the morning and the the afternoon ones were wild. Truly think Trey, the .ain't thing was we never saw tons of discrete open sector supercells like the Bude, MS tornado. There were lots of showers and beans but it got a bit messy at times and some destructive interference with cells that tried to cook. In a sense 40 tornadoes is a hefty outbreak but 2 EF3 tornadoes....though one was a borderline EF4 is pretty lucky in this case. Lot of the tornadoes stayed in the QLCS line on the front and we're quick spinners. Overall, what a storm system to close out 2024 and all hints for 2025 looks to be active again with a perfectly timed ENSO flip back to nuetral during tornado season.....3rd year in a row and this 5 years tornado stretch showing no sign of stopping.

[@kevinhawley8724]

If anybody thinks humans have any influence on whether, climate, why didn't you stop these tornadoes? If you are in the path of these tornadoes, the only thing that can help you is faith in Jesus.

[@travisrock1640]

Basically everything you said that could happen the morning and night before