Hurricane Milton: Full Meteorological Breakdown

[@ihatechiyo]

What I find uncanny [and strange I haven't seen it pointed out yet] is that Milton also happens to be the name of a small town in the panhandle that was hit by one of Florida's worst tornadoes in history on 31 March 1962, with 17 lives lost.

[@soonish7]

That’s so strange what a coincidence

[@Snowstar837]

Oh sure, and Idalia and Helene made landfall basically at the same exact location after the Big Bend hadn't had a major hurricane landfall in decades. Weather do be full of coincidences like that if given enough time!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Very interesting

[@TRGTornado]

Great video! I'm glad to see you're looking back at a Hurricane this year!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@mattm2252]

Hey Trey! You are absolutely correct about how ridiculous the shear was in the tornado outbreak portion of Milton. I can’t remember the last time 60-70 knots of 0-6 km shear was present in a tropical environment. After doing some digging myself, I think I may have figured out why. There was a lead disturbance (AL93) east of Florida, ahead of Milton. This looks to have strengthen mid level shortwave ridging between Milton and AL93 which thus steepened the mid level pressure gradients on the eastern side of Milton. This resulted in stronger mid level winds and thus stronger shear. Couple this effect with Milton residing in the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet streak and it looks to have made for a highly sheared environment. Think my observation is correct?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That sounds like a plausible observation, especially with the trough digging down into the Gulf near landfall.

[@brianchampaigne5490]

​@@ConvectiveChroniclesbefore helene hit in middle georgia the tornado warnings started first. One landed in the night. All i could hear was transformers busting in the backround and the gusts of the wind. Was pitch black out so coildnt see a damn thing.

[@msa3724]

This analysis is probably correct

[@dakotah_anderson]

Long one, gotta get popcorn

[@AndreWehrle]

Always a good day when Trey uploads an in-depth meteorological discussion video! Milton was just pure insanity. Second-most intense hurricane by pressure in the Gulf as you noted, first sub-900mb since Wilma in 2005, one of only six such storms on record in the basin with Wilma, Rita, 1935 Labor Day, Gilbert and Allen, and fifth-most intense on record in the basin behind the first four of those.

[@64BBernard]

I couldn't believe the photos of the tornadoes that were being posted to social media when the tornado outbreak occurred with Hurricane Milton. I thought at first people were posting photos of tornadoes from Iowa.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Same here; some of those images were just nuts!

[@MightyMuffins]

Ah good old Milton. This hurricane to me overtook Wilma for me after 19 years as my #1 hurricane. I guess one can say in my 35 year life time but man this one is gonna be hard as hell to top for me. Wilma will always have the pressure record and be the Queen of that for the Atlantic and her pretty as hell pin hole eye but Milton just ended the Queen's reign at #1 for me. The tornado outbreak sealed the deal entirely in the end for her end. HAIL TO THE KING! The sheer fact how tiny this storm was for the longest time, the incredible peak this has with the rarity of it hitting Cat 5 twice that Wilma didn't do and just the pretty structure this had for many days was awesome. It just was a powerhouse of energy and the Sub-900 mark cooked so hard. But the tornado outbreak was something that I think caught everyone off guard. Nadocast and SPC were expected a tornado outbreak and I expected it too but it didn't expect THAT and to have the many tornadoes and sheer number of warnings for this event. This also produced tornadoes you pretty much see in the peak of tornado season in the plains and that's stupidly ass rare and as you pointed out and going into the event too many of us METR saw like with Beryl, this was gonna have unbelievably high instability to work with. I do wonder if it's time to consider the SPC pushing the EHN or MDT risk on these hurricanes for the tornado potential. These usually are in the slight risk and even with the 10% hatched or stuff it's a bit of a surprise cause even in prime storm season, almost all 10% hatched things are at least EHN or maybe MDT with the all hazards in play too. There is definitively a trend with these Cat 4/5 hurricanes we need to pick up on is the energy these still have at their peak basically still stays with the storm for it's duration even as it downfalls to a lesser Cat 1-3 category. That energy gets transported away from the core to the bands and that added level of shear just makes these bands exceptional tornado producers. Again we saw that with Beryl that even after it died out from the Cat 5 status it still was able to hang on to it's energy and even as it was strengthening into landfall it had a lot of persistent past energy with it and that coupled with perfect instability......you got a hell of a tornado event on hand. Again....he's the new #1 for me....so once again...Hail to the King baby!

[@Avendesora]

I don't think I've ever seen a storm factor be described as "cooked" before lmao (this is not a complaint)

[@pianomanforlife7]

Trey: I’m no expert in hurricanes, but I know the basics. Me: Mhmm, here we go. Proceeds to blow my mind the first half do the video… and for context, I’ve seen nearly every chronicles video😂 Great content as always!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha thank you!!

[@pliktl]

I just got here, and ditto :3 this is rad

[@miloruffing2291]

I live in Sarasota, and I can definitely confirm that the back eye wall was a lot stronger. All the downed trees were facing to the South, and all the street signs in my neighborhood were leaning to the South-Southeast.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, it was a really interesting setup to make that happen, as it's somewhat unusual for that to be the case.

[@Tim_Grooms_Storm_Documentarian]

I can always count on you getting me through a tough day. Thank you for the great work you do.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much, Tim!

[@DannyG-cv8so]

A classic example of a strong thunderstorm in a shear-less environment, is the “Hector The Convector” storm that regularly appears off the Australian coast. Great vid!

[@piconick79]

Thanks Trey.....Great video....ive noticed recently whilst watching other meteorological videos on youtube your channel has been recommended alot which is really nice to see!! I think everyone is convinced you have the best meteorological breakdowns on youtube :D

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! That's awesome to hear!

[@rileyh4169]

"I do know the basics, so lets talk about those." **1 hour and 17 min video**

[@DannyG-cv8so]

Trey is the best on You Tube, in my opinion.

[@jamessimon3433]

Excellent as always Trey! Thanks for discussing that convection out to the east of Milton. For some reason it really caught my eye.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I do wonder if that blob of convection ahead of Milton has more impact than we think; would be a great topic for additional research.

[@KapriiSun]

fantastic analysis as always, although I think there's an important correction that might be needed for the discussion of the frequency of tornadoes in certain quadrants of the hurricane. Tropical tornadoes are most prevalent in the front-right quadrant relative to the direction the center is moving. So in most Gulf systems, it is often the Northeast quadrant, but that isn't the rule. You said the Northeast side of the hurricane, which is often correct for most systems, but it's related to the movement of the center that's key for the sheer and lower-level jet required for these tropical tornadoes. Keep doing what you're doing, it's a minor correction!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you...you're right, technically it is the right-front quadrant; I just tend to simplify since, in the vast majority of cases, it is the northeast quadrant that features the highest activity. Edwards (2012), which is an expanded version of the Edwards (2013) paper I put in the description box, does note that motion-relative (right front quadrant) and pole-relative (northeast quadrant) are both acceptable ways to discuss tornado distribution within a tropical cyclone.

[@aliashurricane9349]

The tornadoes are similar to the ones we had in PA & NJ from Ida a few years ago. First PDS Tornado warning in the area and it was heading towards us. Luckily it didn’t hit us but a different weaker tornado hit the woods a couple hundred yards away from us and destroyed thousands of trees. We could hear it pass from our basement and it really did sound like a freight train. Thanks for the detailed breakdown as always Trey.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I remember that; those tornadoes with Ida were pretty crazy, as well. Glad you came out unscathed from those!

[@unclepappy3823]

lol that camry is peak Floridian

[@beastdork19]

thank you for covering the tornado outbreak part of the hurricane!! I do live in the Tampa area but I honestly was so curious about the tornadoes and what they did before the storm made landfall 30 miles south of my area, thank you for talking about this storm

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you for watching! Hope you made it out ok and the damage wasn't too severe in your area

[@KundeMs.Beulah]

"Thank you for taking the time to make this video. It’s truly helpful!"

[@Latrodectus_vv_]

Haven't watched this yet currently I'm at work. I'm super excited to watch this. Your meteorological breakdowns are absolutely excellent and unparalleled. The amount of science that you put into these is just very very impressive. Way to go super excited

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much; I really appreciate that!

[@pep9077]

One of my favorite videos of yours, I think I’ve learned more from this one than any other singular one. Excellent work as always Trey thank you so much!!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!! Love to hear that!

[@tarenbaldivia3206]

Love these videos! I have one random question, why does the parcel trace start so far from the surface temperature in some of these soundings? I thought the parcel trace always starts at the surface temperature.

[@NiklasDost]

Good question, can you plz let me know when you found the answer to that?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! The reason for that is because different sounding sources plot different parcel traces...the one you see on the SharpPy soundings is the most-unstable (MU) parcel. I'm not sure why they do that; I wish it was at least the surface-based or mixed-layer parcel, as that is much more applicable to most forecasts for severe weather.

[@inversion3492]

as someone who is into tropical weather, i want to note some things you might not know or forgot about: - the hurricane models did show a sting jet feature on the southern side of the circulation prior to landfall and indeed recon data showed a notable increase in winds further south from the center - you completely ommited the fact that in a tropical storm, the air ventilates outwards through the upper levels, most preferably with an upper level anticyclone present above since air needs to get pushed out to have a low pressure. anything that enhances ventilation like a upper level jet in the proximity of the outflow but not near the storms core is gonna help the storm deepen faster, so upper level patterns play a big role in development and explains why alignment with shear vectors tends to not really weaken storms up to a point - the size of the storm and especially its core play a role in the rate of intensification and weakening, smaller storms are more vulnerable to environmental factors but tend to also take advantage faster - its concentric banding that can dissipate or organize into outer eyewalls, choking out the inner one by cutting off inflow - lastly want to mention that the cluster might be remnants of another disturbance that preceded Milton i hope i got nothing wrong here heh, and am a fan of your content as always, you helped me quite a lot with severe weather

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you...I'm well aware of the ventilation component during trough interaction when shear vectors are aligned with storm motion, but that wasn't applicable in this case, as the overall degree of shear had a vastly greater effect on Milton's intensity near landfall.

[@tfk_001]

5:10 to be specific, the pacific TC came from the south, through Oaxaca, the thinnest (from coast to coast) and lowest elevation part of Mexico, hence the original northward trajectory0 and at 57:30, easiest way to find a definitive "is it an EML" to me is just look at the theta E plot. If it's a vertical line, its an EML (as the mixing leads to near constant equivalent potential temperatures with shared equivalent temperatures and shared mixing ratios)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

There's actually legitimate criteria for defining an EML according to AMS: -at least 150 mb deep -base is greater than 1000 m AGL -average lapse rate within the layer > 7.5 C/km -advected from higher terrain

[@DebraBoyle-t9v]

Hello Trey. Gawd I sincerely hope I spelled your name correctly. Anyway I’m sorry for sounding like a fan girl in advance but I am blown away by your vids. At age 60 I believe you can learn everyday but you expertise in meteorology is unmatched. Thank you for your work and doing it in a way that helps me understand and no doubt enhances many lives. I am a lifelong Kansan and have studied storm structure since age 5. (Thanks, Dad)😁. To summarize: Ty for your knowledge base and your outstanding service to us all. Take care, Deb Boyle 🌪️

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Wow, thank you so much for the kind words, Deb! They really mean a lot!

[@zachsteiner]

Wow! It’s been a while since you’ve put out a super long deep dive like this. Just in time for my hour and a half drive for work too. (I drive to lots of different job sites) But yeah, thanks as always Trey! What’s coming next? May 6th I hope?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes, May 6 is next! I had started the May 6 breakdown before Milton, but I wanted to get a video up on Milton because of how unique it was.

[@joseph-frankbrocchus6575]

Regardless of what you say, I think your knowledge of hurricanes and tropical storms is equally impressive as your knowledge of all weather // so grateful for your videos / you mentioned about the winds being worse on the backside, I remember that was kind of like hurricane Ian //we are officially over 10 inches of rain for the month of November in Tulsa

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!! I've been through a few hurricanes where the wind was actually worse on the backside...typically, that's not the case, but certain situations can induce stronger winds on the backside, like Milton and Ian.

[@HaydenManka]

What an incredible storm this one was

[@juanfervalencia]

I was expecting this video since Milton. Thank you.

[@LeviW133]

Great video Trey ;)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@64BBernard]

Great job on your analysis on Hurricane Milton, Trey. In regards to sting jets, I haven't looked deeply enough if a sting jet played a factor as Milton approached the Florida coast. Generally you have to use a cross-section of high-resolution models to find a sting jet and even then the temporal resolution of the model may mean you could miss any sting jet that could have occurred.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you, Brian! I've heard a lot of people discussing the possibility of a sting jet near landfall, so I wanted to at least touch on it in this video. It certainly was an unusual setup for a sting jet.

[@ThePsyko420]

I've been in fl my whole life and yes the blob ahead of milton was definitely unusual particularly in that it was detached from the hurricane

[@ThePsyko420]

@ConvectiveChronicles yeah I thought its path was unusual too, most storms come from the east or south and the few(relative to other parts of fl) that do hit the west coast(I'm excluding the panhandle because the gulf is south from there) normally make a hook after moving through the Caribbean. However, I was referring to the storm that made the blob on the radar. It seemed unusual not because there were other storms in the area but rather that the hurricane didn't suck them in. At least from what I've seen. That being said, I'm not a meteorologist. I just think it behooves anyone living in fl to pay attention to these systems.

[@enidp1277]

Thank you for the great videos you make!!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@Samthesevereweathertracker]

Hey trey, new here to the channel, i like the breakdowns thx trey!.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Welcome!

[@mattstoddard6350]

Thought your comments on the possible EML were interesting. I think this was largely due to the mid-level shear/diffluence to the north of the storm as poleward flow was squeezed between the storm and the sub-tropical high. This dry air was then shunted to the south by the backside of a mid-level low that was present a few hundred miles to the east. Also explains to some degree the quick cyclic nature of the storms and the rapid extratropical/barocylcic transition and development of the sting jet on landfall

[@thomashinterdorfer147]

Something I think that was underrated in this setup was the angle that MILTON came ashore. I feel like this played in a role in preserving the tornado-favourable environment. Normally we see hurricanes make landfall and they move Inland (or for Florida, they cut across the State and move offshore from the East Coast). This obviously takes the tornado-favourable environment in that NE quadrant or Eastern half, with the system and narrows the timeframe for favourability. With MILTON, since it ran almost parallel with the Coastline, the Southern half of Florida was in that favourable window for 6-12hrs, rather than 2-3 hours. This coincided with daytime heating and, as you showed, breaks in the cloud, which increased the instability and allowed the beans to go bananas. If MILTON was more West to East on its landfall, that window of opportunity for tornadoes wouldve been greatly reduced.

[@abbeyh]

sooo true thomas, i agree

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That is a great point!

[@NiklasDost]

Fantastic video!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@weathermanjack3690]

Yes, Hurricane Dorian 2019 had a 15% tor risk (unhatched) in portions of the NC outer banks

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That’s right; I couldn’t remember which one but I knew I’d seen a 15% unhatched before.

[@supertornadogun1690]

That outer eyewall we saw in the morning on the 7th actually dissipated so it didn't really have anything to do with the subsequent ewrc

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I disagree

[@athko]

oh this video was fantastic :o is there any info on why milton's track went so abnormally eastward? id assume it was due to the steering winds, but i have not seen any discussion on why westerlies were present in the gulf during this event. looking at past hurricanes, i cant find any in the gulf that have taken such a straight shot eastward - usually they only turn east while curving northward near the end of their tropical life, like idalia last year, as far as i have seen. since milton didnt really *turn* north-eastward, it started out that way, its movement seems peculiar

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, Milton's path was quite unusual; only two other hurricanes (both from the 1800s) took a similar path eastward toward Florida like Milton did. The reason for it was westerly flow aloft on the southern periphery of multiple shortwave troughs dipping down into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

[@peachxtaehyung]

Seems like almost every hurricane the last couple years have exploded either beyond what models predicted or faster... Its weird and scary honestly

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It definitely is something to monitor going forward

[@ce9fan570]

@ConvectiveChronicles, Is the reason tropical tornadoes are usually brief spin ups because mid-level lapse rates and CAPE values are not high enough to sustain the updraft for a lengthy period of time?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes, that definitely plays a major role.

[@jaredpatterson1701]

One that will live on in infamy for years. Great breakdown 👌

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! No doubt

[@Darthvader-en8ce]

With such an upper echelon environment for TC tornadoes in place for both Ivan and Milton, and with Ivan producing over 120 confirmed tornadoes, I say we got lucky that we didn’t see anywhere close to that number with Milton. At least when survey crews are done.

[@antiksur8883]

However, you have to state that Ivan actually had that count over multiple days. Milton did it in the span of a couple of hours.

[@ruthlerohl2767]

Very interesting, Trey! Thank you so much! I am in Tampa Bay area. 3 hurricanes enough this year!

[@ruthlerohl2767]

I'd also like to add I appreciate the analogy to Omaha tornado outbreak in April. I was on the phone with my brother who lives in Omaha and watching real time local broadcast that day. I understood everything as a meteorology major. Thanks again! 👍

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Man, it's been a rough year for you and your area in the hurricane department. Hopefully, Milton will be it for the year!

[@atrainradio929]

Nobody else does meteorological education as good as you do. I didn't have the math skills to get a degree in meteorology but I always have a deep fascination with how it all works.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@simkani3294]

Could you do one of these on the Nashville tornado back in 2020?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s on my list

[@msa3724]

I mantain that Milton was NOT a Cat 3 at landfall...the max recorded wind gust anywhere was 106 mph

[@araydog]

When you doing a case study on the 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak??

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It's on my list

[@greensunfish]

Do you think the names Milton and Helene will be retired?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes

[@peanut4998]

This tornado outbreak performed better than may 6th

[@ChrisWhite200]

W Video

[@eddie5z518]

He did it! It really happened!

[@nickstephens2913]

I have found it odd that shear favors tornados and kills hurricanes

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

A lot of folks are in the same boat, so I thought I'd elaborate on why that's the case in this video

[@1127fctwosw]

one hour seventeen extended party mix b/d. nice.

[@Duuhvis]

Day of the Gatornaders

[@peanut4998]

certified 29C sst moment

[@charlessaunders1217]

Bro does are some big tornados one of them could be an F3

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

There were multiple EF3s

[@mattstoddard6350]

NBA season and Chronicles dropping on the same day! Better bust out the good bourbon.

[@TheSkyGuy77]

I hope they retire the name Milton because this storm was wild

[@aprilbrooks9068]

so was Helene or should I say Hellene? which is more fitting bcuz she unleashed Hell or raised Hell on Florida and the Southeast

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I suspect they will