Meteorological Breakdown: Similar Setups, Different Outbreaks - March 31 and April 4, 2023

In-depth discussion of the two bimodal severe weather outbreaks that occurred on March 31 and April 4, 2023. We'll discuss the meteorology behind both outbreaks, notable storms from each, and why the outcomes of each outbreak were so different despite similar forecasts and background patterns.
Davies and Guyer (2004) article on cold-core tornadoes: www.spc.noaa.gov/publications...
My video on 0-3km CAPE: • The Tornado Forecastin...
My video on cold-core tornado environments: • A Guide to Cold-Core T...
Cameron Nixon's article on deviant tornado motion: cameronnixonphotography.wordp...
Contents
0:00 Introduction
3:27 Meteorological overview - northern mode - March 31
38:53 Keota, IA, tornadic supercell breakdown - March 31
48:25 Sullivan, IN, tornado breakdown - March 31
52:36 Meteorological overview - southern mode - March 31
01:12:29 Little Rock, AR, tornado breakdown - March 31
01:16:46 Wynne, AR/Covington, TN, tornadic supercell breakdown - March 31
01:23:39 Meteorological overview - April 4
01:50:50 Pleasantville, IA, tornado breakdown - April 4
01:56:16 Lewistown, IL, tornadic supercell breakdown - April 4
02:02:17 Discussion on tornado deviance - April 4
02:04:14 Discussion of capping issues in southern mode - April 4
02:06:21 Conclusion

[@SvrWxArchive1807]

2 hours?!? How have we been BLESSED with such amazing content today!

[@jaredpatterson1701]

Well it's two events so it's like a double video in one lol

[@bigtodd]

Seeing the March 31 outbreak being listed right next to 4/27/2011 and 4/3/1974 in terms of tornado count is astounding

[@vincentoconnor5640]

Thankfully there was nowhere near as many violent tornadoes

[@brandonwilliam2618]

At least not in populated areas.

[@peachxtaehyung]

Right it's crazy! There's quite a wide space between them with tornado count but still

[@stormwx]

@@peachxtaehyung Not that "wide" space just 20 tornadoes shy of the 24-hour period record of 148 tornadoes on ther '74.

[@peachxtaehyung]

@@stormwx I know but what I'm saying it's not just like 5 tornadoes apart or something

[@evanfryberger]

Finally! The worlds first severe weather break down movie 🍿

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

😂😂

[@peachxtaehyung]

😂😂

[@MyFatherLoves]

still remember 3/31 like it was yesterday. I work in Little Rock, AR and I'm very thankful to have had the ear of my boss by that time. I strongly suggested he send us home, he did. The EF3 came within 100yrds of our work and about a mile of my home in North Little Rock. Thankfully, we were able to coordinate our interpreters across Little Rock to get them to safety and check on our large deaf/blind community just after the tornado tore through. Ryan Hall was pivotal in helping us get our interpreters to safety.

[@heatherstub]

You don't know how much good that does my heart to hear this! I'm totally blind, and to hear that you and your team did that just reminds me that there are some really, really good human beings here in this country. I live in Atlanta, Georgia, and we seem to be lacking this more than ever. I've tried to always show people the solutions to our problems, but they turn a "deaf" ear and "blind" eye to it all. Having been blind since birth, I don't look at blindness as a disability but rather, a part of who I am. Heck! There are some things I'm glad I can't see! Thank you so much for being a light and a voice for some of us who really need this!

[@Austin_Dale]

I will always have a piece of the March 31 outbreak with me. I go to college in Vincennes Indiana which is 30 minutes south of Sullivan. Went to check out the EF3 damage, and on the way back to my car about half a mile from the damage path I found a piece of a door frame shoved into the ground, with 2 door hinges still attached.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang, that’s crazy.

[@Austin_Dale]

@@ConvectiveChronicles I actually posted some photos on my twitter. I’ll tag you on that.

[@SoulSilverCast]

That's wild. : v

[@WeatherWatcher14]

Incredibly detailed and high quality video, it takes a lot of work to sit down and go in depth on 2 severe weather outbreaks for 2 whole hours… great job!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@VivianLund]

Thanks for giving us the play-by-play on this event!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Of course; thank you for watching, as always!

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

I've watched alot of videos from weather enthusiasts such as Trey here, Reed, and many others. I think this dude is the best at detailed info. I know it's just an opinion, but I can back my opinion up with his uploads, compare them to others, and I have seen people point to his work as more in depth. Of course Reed Timmer is more recognized nationally, but I've seen a few give Convective Chronicles the thumbs up over Reed. And I think that is saying something. I hope he keeps up the great work!

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

I know I keep saying this. But you have the best in depth analysis of any meteorological style channel. It's not under done and it's not over done with how you present your case studies. It's simple, with a seriousness that's fun to watch if you're into meteorological science. You seem to be getting more comfortable also when presenting these analysis, which is awesome. Thanks again for what you do Trey! Ok, so I've told you how I've felt about your work. But I figured out how to do that without being the same thing over and over. I just reword a few things and that seems to work 😂! Have a good one bro and take care!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words! That really means a lot!

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

@@ConvectiveChronicles You're more than welcome. I've just always appreciated what people do. I wish we had a world that everyone thought that way. I'll at least know that I did my part.

[@Grimm_reaper238]

Crazy thing is I live in the high risk area Iowa was in on march 31st, and on march 25th that area was covered in snow when we woke up that morning. (The most snow I’d ever seen on my birthday)

[@AF99499]

Looking forward to watching this! It'll be cool to see a breakdown of a setup I chased. Not to brag or anything, but when we chased on 3/31 in NW/Central IL we saw absolutely nothing in our 10 hours of driving, not even any hail or lightning, which is honestly really impressive considering how widespread everything was. my initial target 2 days before was near Ottumwa, and I'm still kicking myself for not committing and being more vocal, but I'm the least experienced and confident person in our group and the setup kept looking better for IL so we chose to stay East of the Mississippi river.

[@0xstuff625]

You should do a meteorological breakdown/reaction video to ‘Twister’ - is there a plausible explanation as to how a “no precipitation” supercell can produce an F5? The F5 also changes course a couple of times, what could the hodograph have looked like to cause that sort of deviant motion? Is it advisable to drive in a ditch in an attempt to intercept a tornado? The gate-to-gate velocities are maxed out for the drive-in F4, given 90’s era radar what could that have looked like? Or would an F4 have caused range folding? If you did a breakdown of Twister it would literally make my life!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That’s a great idea and something I’ve thought of for awhile now! Might do something closer to the release of the sequel.

[@topaz6959]

You and June First both have given me significant insights to how this all works, and I appreciate you both so much! Keep up the amazing work man, super informative.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@greensunfish]

the keota tornado had a 3 body scatter spike on it just like the mayfield tornado

[@BattleshipOrion]

My town (Wapakoneta, Ohio) was hit at 1:15am, on the first of April. Lost a greenhouse, screwed up the truck-stop, a couple of factories (some evidence of this is still visible of you are on the I75-Ohio 33 interchange, I think that's exit 110, 'cuz Wapak is 111) one of which has not been repaired or demolished yet, and we only had one injury. It was an EF-1, and was part of the March 31st system.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad the injury toll wasn’t higher

[@StormFlareRecords]

TIME TO BINGE WATCH

[@runt9]

Man, Trey, you knocked this one out of the park. 2 hours straight of deep-dive weather details and I loved every second of it. There's a ton I could run through but I'll keep it short and sweet. I really wonder if some stronger ridging from the high pressure streaming up from the Gulf slowed the trough down on April 4th. It really feels like it came to a crawl right before its ejection which threw so many things out of whack. From a parameter space perspective April 4th had a higher ceiling than the 31st, there was more instability and higher shear almost across the board, but that dry air aloft and slowed, weak forcing just... stopped storms from forming. I still am blown away by the dry air being seemingly lifted out of the gulf on the water vapor imagery from that morning. March 31st definitely hits the raw number of tornadoes, but at this point we only have a single EF4 and no EF5s. I think it's a perfect example of what a gigantic warm sector with textbook forcing in a low to moderate parameter space can create. It was storm after storm after storm dropping mostly short-lived, strong-but-not-violent tornadoes over just an incredibly large area. And while we did have some small areas with incredibly large shear values, we never really saw any of the crazy MLCAPE values we saw on days like the Super Outbreak. If we had April 4th's parameters with March 31st's perfect trough ejection, we would be talking about a historic, violent outbreak. But just very interesting how many EF3s we had, wide swaths of moderate to strong damage, but very few places saw complete destruction. Anyways, lots of stuff going on throughout the 2 hours, I could definitely go on and on, but the stalling of the trough on April 4th, and the seeming lack of really long-track violent tornadoes in an otherwise prolific, historic outbreak on the 31st were the two main interesting bits to me. Thanks again for putting all of this together. As you RT'd, #1 record-breaking January to March tornado season so far this year, but now we've got some serious ridging taking hold and other than Friday/Saturday potentially bringing a severe outbreak with a bit of a tornado threat, the pattern seems to mostly be keeping these forming troughs at bay for the next couple weeks.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, I still have no clue where that dry air aloft came from on the 4th. As far as 3-31, there were several long-trackers, but like you said, only the one EF4. Although a few of those EF3s came close, and I'm sure some of those tornadoes were stronger outside of populated areas. It's been quite the active start to the year, but we do seem to be slowing down a bit. I do wonder if the atmosphere is "recharging" for late April/May; some of the recent long-range model runs show a return to troughiness by the end of the month.

[@dannygray-mi3xn]

Bloody brilliant. Great work as always. Cheers Trey.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; I really appreciate it!

[@supertornadogun1690]

Watching that Keota storm early on I was really worried it gonna gonna drop right over Ottumwa, luckily it didn't

[@SSVR2903]

Hey made it to the end😂 Always enjoy hearing your insights!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@peachxtaehyung]

Great video as always trey! I wasn't expecting 2 hours but I'm not complaining!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@MightyMuffins]

Alright now this was awesome to go through. First off thanks Trey for putting this together. As someone with a fair bit of....well...2+ hour chase videos on my channel and funneling through my radar/sat/obs stuff and putting it into them 2 hours can be a little pain in the ass for rendering and waiting for stuff for youtube to load and process especially to HD. First off the 31st system....this was just insane to watch and I remember basically watching it from start to finish and just crazy stuff on twitter. Always interesting to see when you flip quick to the 2011 event and just look at it and see it again. I mean that set up....well....that's a once in a 50 year set up. Just insane to see that huge low and insane southern jet. Now, on the Mar 31st event, I was mainly trying to get the feeds from the local stations out there in IA and IL during these events and like most cause it's interesting to hear from them that know the areas and follow along usually. The more nitty-gritty aspect of it that I think you don't get from the YT weather streamers cause you get the more "we know this area like a fine tooth comb as we cover areas daily". Just remarkable to see how discrete all the storm stayed but what was more amazing was the duration of how long it took for these to chain up to start eliminating the more high EF3+ tornado potential but still getting TONS of EF0-EF2 tornadoes in the QLCS line and just that was nuts and obviously where majority of the reports did end of up in the Northern mode. The Keota, IA tornado is just one of the more impressive tornadoes I think we have seen...honestly since the Rochelle, IL tornado. I know many will point to the Rolling Fork tornado or even the Mayfield tornado and others we have seen recently....but I think there's a recency bias people have cause those were such prolific events and so destructive but the video is at night so it's hard to make out the photogenic nature of these powerful tornadoes. The Keota tornado is just on that Rochelle tornado level cause of how visible and the insane motion of the tornado. Like the structure of it and the fact we got twin tornadoes out of it puts it far above some of the tornadoes we have seen the last 7 years in terms of a meteorology aspect in my opinion and the fact it mostly stayed rural was good. Devin Pitts photo is basically....well that as a chaser, that's gonna be damn near impossible to top and that's a "career defining photo".....I though am surprised I missed seeing Andy Wehrle's video of that tornado but damn that's so impressive. So many chasers were on that tornado....though some played with fire with that tornado and nearly got in some really poor situations. You don't mess with a EF4 beast like that. I do agree with the Hannibal, MO storm and I think if it just remain more on it's own and didn't have the crap to the SSW of it it would have been a hefty tornado producer like the Keota storm but just enough interference capped that from going full tilt nuts. Love the proximity soundings you were able to gather for this cause shows all the minute differences in all the storms that were popping off. Just so much low level energy for these storms to work with.....basically like that Sullivan, IN tornado. That hodograph is just stupidly insane and the parameters on that were nuts on the environmental soundings. Oh and yes there's virtually no video of the tornado and I remember watching 2 network channels as the tornado was in progress and while they did have traffic camera and tower cameras around the area of Sullivan, it was not viewable and some of the cameras couldn't face the SW direction of the storm and it was pretty much a semi-rainwrapped tornado I think. To my knowledge I think a couple chasers were trying to get on that storm but could only follow it from the West as they were diving out of the IA/IL storms and never could make it to the storm but could make it out visually but no video as most were MILES away from it and likely only saw it on the horizon being it so dark out. Basically, timing of that storm and just when it came in lead to it being a really bad storm for the town. Now the Southern Mode and the 31st. Where you went to chase, and I approved of your choice to do that...mostly cause it would also keep your chase $$$ cost down too. Paid off too as you got the Little Rock tornado. Loaded gun soundings everywhere. Trey, I think I said on the morning when it went high and before hand I would be more concerned on that Southern mode due to how long duration this event had the potential to be and the fact this would be a more nocturnal event was what I was more worried about. I mean that dry line and warm sector was just gonna sit and cook for the entire day and it would take SOOOOO LONG before the cold front would catch up to the dry line and just rip on through. It was pretty much gonna be max tornado potential well into the overnight and that's kind of what happened and I remember having to get on my overnight shift from work to see it all. The pre-frontal trough in the Southern mode there was just one of the more pronounced I have seen since I think one of the January set ups though this was just more primed for how far ahead of the dry line/cold front and into the warm sector this had the chance to cook in. I mean the moist layer around the sector extending to 700mb is so impressive by 18z. I think the more impressive thing is on the Little Rock tornado like the other ones you can see the debris on the CC get sucked up into the updraft and see it get ejected way out ahead of the storm out of the anvil. The Wynne tornado kind of a wild tornado and it was just a big mass. I think that's what caught kind of chasers a bit off guard a bit chasing and following it and especially just the common person in town is that it it was just looks like a big dark blob. It's not simple to make out a the structure of the tornado itself but people like Pecos and Zach were probably in the only spots to truly see the tornado clear enough. Oh and you did mention the lack of deviant motion, yeah that was something that I almost had an argument with WX people on twitter that should know better. People seem to just be stupid when mentioning it saying "this tornado had a lot of deviant motion"......when clearly like the Little Rock tornado and Covington/Wynne tornadoes were mostly straight pathed. I kept telling people you can have some wobble in a tornado path but they were still mostly straight pathed but people still said otherwise which was frustrating. The El Reno tornado is like....that's what a deviant tornado truly is. Hence why, the Covington to Wynne tornadoes were pretty much in the same "straight path" with not really a northern occlusion as you said too. Onto the 4th, yeah this was similar to the 31st in terms of a objective view but not the same by far as it wasn't as....mature of a system. The diffulence regions were a lot more tighter and not just a pronounce huge region from WI to AR. Also so apparent you can see the lack of a major jet streak too on the 4th too around the base.....though the main issue still with this system was the EML and some of the strong mixing we got too. So pronounced across many areas and while the trough could have been like the 31st, it was far from it. It was a really weird and complex system on the Northern mode cause models were so confused on how to handle the system even hours before the event and that warm front was so tricky to forecast how storms would play out along it and in the warm sector of it. In a way the HRRR did do a fairly good job hinting how strong the mixing was gonna be for this event and that did help cap the crap out of the region in terms of the tornado potential. The warm front basically was the true trigger for the tornado we did end of seeing and some of those tornado were actually pretty strong but yeah you needed to be along the warm front and the extra little forcing you needed to overcome the strong EML and mixing too. Honestly speaking I was surprised the Southern mode didn't produce as much as it did especially tornadoes. I thought as the trough moved East I expected some stuff to fire off with some with some robustness but man....nothing cooked up and honestly was quite surprised. I fully expected the EML and mixing in the Southern mode to be able to have fought that off in the better part of the warm sector and less heating like what was happening in the Northern mode but nope. Hell, even was expecting the LLJ to help too but nope....nothing really cooked....well except the Glen Allen tornado and I was seeing that live on my overnight shift. I will say the drill bit tornado around Pleasantville, IA was just crazy. Some of the videos really do show it as almost a true 'Twister' tornado but I loved the ropey wonky structure it had. Such a long tube. The Illinois storm, even though it didn't produce a long track tornado and took a bit to condense into a big storm...it was a huge supercell when it was tornado producing and Peoria, IL.....that's the 2nd time in about a month that city got spared from a tornado. Overall, just a wild 2 events. Also on these events, chasers got caught on these tornadoes and people really need to be self aware that you don't need to get stupid ass close to these tornadoes....I personally never get it. Makes me yell into my meteorology degree. Maybe it's cause I chase in Albany and I am used to playing it safe so much filming and the fact we don't get tornadoes much in NY that I have learned over my lifetime since having a car, I don't need to get close to get wonderful structure as we get 90% cold fronts and shelf clouds. At this point, it's likely impossible to stop people from getting close and into bad spots but at least I know from how I chase I know and feel like I am being smart with my decisions to continue chasing for another day.

[@cloudweaving]

2 hrs! yes! this is amazing! i can't wait to watch!

[@jasonking3182]

I always wonder how many tornadoes would have been found in 74 if they had modern Doppler radar?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

We've definitely gotten better at identifying tornadoes since then, so that event (and most older events) is probably undercounted somewhat.

[@jasonking3182]

@@ConvectiveChronicles We also know what to look for. How many EF 0 or EF 1 tornados in the past were written off as wind damage with out being investigated

[@MyFatherLoves]

It's wild to me how many of the main chasers who recorded the Little Rock tornado never actually got the footage of it in Little Rock. Your footage is in extreme North Little Rock (different city altogether) as it moved into sherwood and then into Jacksonville. The major, high-end EF3 damage, was in Little Rock. In fact, it was only about 5mph from being an EF4. The "hills" you mentioned before moving on. Extremely thankful that no one died but many many many people lost their homes and businesses. It's still looks like a warzone in several parts of Little Rock on the south side of the Arkansas River, just south of I-40. Major damage.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, we couldn't get on it for the EF3 portion of its life cycle because we were waiting out ahead in the delta for it to come into the better terrain. I just considered it the Little Rock tornado because, even though we might not have been in Little Rock proper, it was well within the Little Rock metropolitan area.

[@facingthewind]

Watched the whole video. I was watching the Lewistown storm move into Peoria right as the cap annihilated it. Beautiful structure though with an abundance of lightning.

[@michaelonesty]

Good lord what a video!

[@greggsplaylist]

Great video breakdown on the differences between the two events. I know I heard online people getting upset with some of the weather KZbinrs talking up the April 4th event like it was going to be the same as the March event. Because of that I have been recommending people follow you as I feel like you are one of the rare ones that talked about April 4th not being as bad as forecasted and questioning the Moderate risk outlook.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Yeah, I just didn't see the April 4 event being anywhere close to March 31 due to some of the thermodynamics issues I described, which ended up tempering the overall threat.

[@gregorytribou8495]

🐐 can't wait to listen

[@MesoBreakfast]

I was able to chase both these days. Didn't see the Lewistown Tornado thankfully. That one got dangerous so quick!

[@JasonandJasonShow]

Thank you for making detailed severe weather analysis accessible to lay persons such as myself. Crazy to think when I started watching this channel I had no idea what the EML was 🤣

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It's my pleasure; thank you for watching!

[@Larry_Harvilla]

So I was on a (truck) load of frozen garlic bread, which I had picked up on March 29 a few miles outside of Vineland, NJ. Following Interstate 76 across Pennsylvania into Ohio, and then Interstate 80 all the way to Sacramento, I had made it as far as eastern Iowa by the late afternoon hours of March 31, just in time for the SPC high-risk area to light up with all manner of nasty shit. About 25 miles past the Quad Cities, as I was approaching the Wilton rest area, I actually spotted a visibly rotating mesocyclone, and hastily made the decision to stop at the rest area and let the mesocyclone cross I-80 before proceeding. I sat out 15-20 minutes of Noah's Ark-level rain, allowed the sun to pop back out, and then took off again. It turned out I made a good observation for somebody who knows a little bit more about weather than most, but not nearly as much as chasers and other people with expertise in it; and it turned out I made a good decision to stop. Maybe two miles west of the main Wilton rest area, there is a truck-parking-only rest area, and off the right side of the off-ramp, another truck driver hadn't been so fortunate: his truck was laying on its right side. I did see him walking around his truck, apparently uninjured but clearly in disbelief that he had been blown over. I wasn't close enough to know whether the mesocyclone had dropped a tornado to the ground, but I do have an idea what kind of wind is required to blow a truck over, and seeing a blown-over truck tells me high-end EF0 to low-end EF1. I wasn't done with severe weather on that load. Reaching Laramie, WY by the end of April 1, I was forced to shut down there because the Wyoming Highway Patrol had closed I-80 west of Laramie to trucks due to high winds. Then, by early evening of April 2, I had to stop at Rock Springs, WY as a blizzard moved in; I was there until April 5 by the time WHP re-opened I-80 from that one. I still couldn't get anywhere, though, because some lady flipped her pickup truck and camper in tow on its side near the I-80/I-84 interchange in Utah and had it blocked for several hours. It was the morning of April 8 before I finally reached Tracy, CA.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang, you had quite the trip! Great choice in pulling off and letting that mesocyclone pass by. The back side of that storm with all the snow/wind was definitely nothing to sneeze at either.

[@cheyennewallace3130]

About to board a 2.5 hour flight. This is perfect 👌🏻 Thank you.

[@ryguy9664]

Made it all the way through (2x speed lol) thanks as always for the best KZbin content ❤

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@jamessimon3433]

Insanely good analysis once again! You are really getting people interested in weather sciences. This type of content is what makes this platform so powerful. I understand the concept of a trough, but can anyone explain the concept of trough "ejection" and what that means in general. I cant find much online on the subject.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I'll be honest, I'm not sure why trough "ejection" is used in meteorology, but I've always understood it as the trough simply moving from one place to another while maturing. Perhaps more specifically, it has to do with that flow on the backside of the trough (indicating a still-maturing trough) finally becoming concentrated around the base/into the exit region of the trough. A little tough to explain without visual aids, but hopefully this helps.

[@jamessimon3433]

​@@ConvectiveChronicles yes it does thanks man!

[@zacharysmith8654]

Wont be able to watch today but definitely will tomorrow!

[@SoulSilverCast]

For my area in IL, the outbrake on the 31st was a full on bust. We where in the pink High risk and didn't even get rain or any kind of wind, the morning after was windyer then that day; on the 4th we had huge golf ball size hail from the cell that dropped the Industry & Lewiston Tornados. wild how this stuff works out.

[@brandonwilliam2618]

Even on the biggest days not everyone gets storms, definitely not a bust though.

[@SoulSilverCast]

@@brandonwilliam2618 I meant for me specifically, it's evendent to everyone the 31st did a lot of damage elsewhere and was catastrophic in certain places.

[@dmlarry]

In march 31st I got the tornado warning mid ranked match. I had to go downstairs as a tornado went to my south in dekalb and one hit Belvedere to my north. Absolute wicked day

[@CF55443]

YOU ARE THE BEST !!! If I weren’t so old, I’d work on being being a (novice) meteorologist. Thank you Trey.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@pauldee1577]

I live in the far SW Chicago area, and my house got hit by one of the weak tornadoes. I wasn't expecting so many little tornadoes to be embedded in the LCS, and I just had a severe warning. So my wife watched out a north-facing window as 80-85 mph winds started tearing off shingles and knocking off tree branches. Things flew over my house from south to north, and by the time my wife and I raced down the stairs, it was over. It had to have been a weak tornado, which the NWS confirmed yesterday. I can't believe 15-20 tornadoes were embedded in a single line of storms! That might warrant further examination; I'd love a deep dive into that. Somehow I think the storms' wind field weakened its returns on radar- is that a thing that happens?

[@greggsplaylist]

With you on more of a deep dive into tornadoes in a line of storms. I do know they can be very hard to warn as there are times that they can form, do damage, and dicipate before the radar can get a return.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang, glad you're ok! With as much low-level shear was in play, no wonder there a lot of spin-ups in the line. I don't think a storm's wind field can weaken its radar returns, but fast storm motion can mask tornadic couplets at times.

[@pauldee1577]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you for your response! I was wondering why the NWS was issuing broad, sweeping tornado warnings along that line. It must have been because of the masking of couplets that you mentioned!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@pauldee1577 You bet! Sometimes, NWS will simply warn the entire line because those spin-ups can pop up with very little notice anywhere along the line and only last maybe a few seconds, making them very different to warn individually.

[@EvilApple567]

Idk if it was mainly just due to the dry air abundance, but those lapse rates, particularly at Lincoln (1:45:00) were nutty, especially in the mid-upper levels.

[@DjPyro2010]

I didn't thorougly analyze it like you did but before watching the video im gonna assume it was a higher instability to shear ratio in the 2nd event. I remember the cape and lifted index values being higher than the 2nd event but the shear being about the same or maybe lower than the first event.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Shear was actually good for both events, but April 4 had some significant thermodynamic issues that held it back.

[@MichaelMcClellanWX]

Jeez I was hoping to get to bed early tonight. Nope; better grab the Red Bull.

[@LankyWx]

I am eating this stuff up. Trying to get into OU. Love this channel.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@tombeers3489]

Thank you for your regular detailed analysis. I am working on how to read skew-t charts and hodographs. I have one question. Why are the wind barbs on the skew-t and graphic on the hodograph, that are favorable for tornadoes, change in the clockwise direction and not counterclockwise that is consistent with a tornado. I understand when you say the large directional change in the low-level winds on the hodograph is a good sign for tornadogenesis...but I don't understand how the clockwise change helps. Thanks..

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you for watching! I'll be honest, this is a bit difficult to explain without going deep into the physics/calculus and without visual aids, but supercells attain their rotation by ingesting vortex "tubes" that result from strong (speed) shear. Think of these as pencils rolling left to right on a desk. The supercell ingests these "tubes"...akin to picking up the pencil by the eraser end while still rolling it and making it vertical. If you can visualize that, that horizontal rotation would turn into counterclockwise (cyclonic) rotation in the vertical. From this cyclonically rotating updraft, you can get tornadoes. Here's a paper that goes into this a bit more and has some figures illustrating what I talked about above: eps.harvard.edu/files/eps/files/markowski_richardson_2009.pdf Veering winds with height also play into supercell dynamics by allowing the right-moving updraft within a convective storm to become dominant. This is where the nitty gritty math comes in; here's a paper that details this process if you're interested: www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/~dbj/PHY459/papers/klemp_1987.pdf

[@tombeers3489]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Wow, thanks for the nice and detailed response. You provided a good analogy for me to digest. I am pretty sure I have a good understanding of what is going on. I have been through all of your instructional videos. I am working on processing it all. I get the core, but putting it all together will take a lot of practice. You continually provide that practice for us. This a great resource for would-be meteorologists. I will work on what you sent. Thanks again.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@tombeers3489 Thank you for the kind words! Always feel free to reach out with any questions.

[@brandonwilliam2618]

Was mixing the reason storms between the modes didn’t sustain? The sun was out all morning in St. Louis.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

For 3-31 or 4-4?

[@brandonwilliam2618]

3-31

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@brandonwilliam2618 I think it had more to do with some storm mode/storm interaction issues. Plus, you were between the areas of forcing (sfc low to the north, prefrontal trough to the south).

[@brandonwilliam2618]

Thanks

[@SylvieJ47]

2 hours! nice!

[@andruwingram848]

I live in Noblesville Indiana which is in a valley apparently which makes it harder for tornadoes to hit here. Is there still a tornado risk for us this year?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That’s actually a bit of a myth; tornadoes can happen anywhere, regardless of terrain. I’d definitely keep an eye out as we go into the next few months.

[@baileybrucem]

i would honestly pay for this content, would you ever consider a patreon for some weather events?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I've actually had a Patreon in the works for awhile now; I've just struggled to come up with extra perks, since I pretty much put all the educational content I come up with on this main channel.

[@tornadoclips2022]

Cant wait for this movie

[@HallowedDemiseGuitarist]

YES

[@CamandoGaming]

Can you do the May 25, 2008 Hugo, MN Tornado.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I’ll add it to the list

[@CamandoGaming]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks

[@sharessehughes2978]

My small town of Swayzee Indiana was hit by an EF2 on March 31st. I was watching the radar and never saw a hook echo. How can this be??? Everything I thought I knew was shattered in those horrifying seconds. Now I have storm anxiety because I don't understand... Please help.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

A storm doesn’t necessarily always have to have a clear hook to be producing a tornado; sometimes there will be a lot of precipitation that hides the clear hook feature on radar.

[@sharessehughes2978]

Would I be better off to just watch base velocity then? Is this what I have heard referred to as an embedded cell? Do you have any links or resources about identifying hard to see hook echos?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@sharessehughes2978 Yes, velocity is going to give you a much better depiction of any rotation within a storm. An embedded supercell is one that is nestled within a full line of storms. I don't necessarily have any specific info about identifying diffuse hook echos; again, watching velocity along with reflectivity is going to be your best bet in ID-ing tornadoes via radar.

[@sharessehughes2978]

Trey, thank you so much for taking time out of your day to help me! I'm slowly working my way through the wealth of knowledge you have provided, but that makes me feel a little safer in the short-term. I can't tell you how much that means to me. 💗

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@sharessehughes2978 My pleasure; always happy to help! Please let me know if you have any other questions!

[@myria9644]

2 hours, definitely will be watching it lol

[@jawmedia7575]

Kmon weather geeks! Hit the like button for this dude! Also I was 15 miles west of Gas City IN and had to stop the semi due to tornado approaching. That tornado nearly tripped over me.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Dang, I bet that got a little intense for a bit!

[@jawmedia7575]

@Convective Chronicles I was rather terrified for about 3 minutes. I was getting pelted with debris and about 30 seconds into the experience All the lights went out around me. Traffic light near by, all the lights from near by town. It was something else

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@jawmedia7575 Dang, that's crazy! Glad you're ok!

[@jaredpatterson1701]

Okay so when the upper air diverges, does that create the surface low?

[@marshallsweatherhiking1820]

Yea, but you have to take speed into account as well to get the true divergence. Diffluence and slowing tend to cancel. Divergence usually occurs ahead of a sharp upper trough anyways though, for reasons that would take a lot of effort to explain. The surface low tends to be east of the upper low for that reason though. When the low pressure tilts west with height you will have a transverse circulation with rising ahead of the system and sinking behind. A vertically stacked low doesn’t have that circulation and indicates the system is past its peak intensity.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Without getting deep into the weeds, what happens aloft is connected to what happens near the ground. Divergence aloft promotes convergence at the surface, which can kickstart the process of surface low development east of the upper low center.

[@jaredpatterson1701]

@Marshall's Weather & Hiking I'm trying to understand it bro xD thanks for taking the time to reply

[@jaredpatterson1701]

@@ConvectiveChronicles I'm slowly getting better at the gist of things, so I appreciate these replies

[@kainhall]

34:34 right as the storms form.... "gravity waves" can be seen to the east . i dont know what it means.... but its their

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Those look to me to be cloud streets indicative of low-level stability, but they eroded pretty quickly.

[@kainhall]

@@ConvectiveChronicles ah, got ya.... thanks for your time

[@rphoenix5908]

Love your content overall so don't take this too harshly, but IMO this should have been two separate videos, one for each event. I do like how you compared and contrasted them some, but having the events in separate videos would be easier to watch over one double-length video, especially when your content is so dense. I'm still glad you did this though, don't get me wrong.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I thought about it, but the setups were so similar that I decided to put them together into one.

[@EricPlayzGames]

The March 31st Little Rock tornado has been crazy and has the record for the longest tracked tornado seconded I believe goes to the 1999 f3 tornado

[@MP-et1eu]

In Arkansas? I’m pretty sure the US has seen over 100 miles in the past. I lived in NLR at the time and it came very close to me the sound was crazy. Went through my moms back yard.

[@EricPlayzGames]

@@MP-et1eu dang

[@conner1715]

did you actually record this in a single two hour long marathon like i think you did?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha no, it was several clips spliced together over a two-day stretch.

[@calebcopeland3436]

Now that we know it was only 2 tornaodes away from passing the super outbreak of 1974 for tornadoes in a 24 hr period, if you don’t look at violent tornaodes would you personally count this as an superoutbreak??

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I still wouldn’t put it on the Superoutbreak pedestal because of the lack of strong to violent tornadoes. That has been a critical component of past Superoutbreaks (1974, 2011), so I personally can’t overlook that in my evaluation.

[@calebcopeland3436]

@@ConvectiveChronicles I agree, but still one of the most relative worse outbreaks we’ve seen in a while (if you exclude 12/10/21)

[@__Dave__]

Let’s Go

[@railfanningpoints2.045]

👍

[@tekjess_]

2 hours? geeze dude, gonna have to put this on 1.5x speed.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Grab the popcorn!

[@colin7244]

52:47 wait what happened?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Oops, left a blooper in there

[@colin7244]

@@ConvectiveChronicles thats alright no worries

[@OddballGaming140]

Oh yeah march 2023

[@22lilacsky]

not normal....study the earth....