How to Forecast Convective Mode

[@JonnyGlessnerStormChasing]

June 15th, 2022 is also a great example of how a weakly forcing cold front can lead to discrete storm modes. The cold front in Kansas was a much smaller gradient and was nearly stationary. The storm motions were more perpendicular and this led to a beautiful, discrete supercell that went uninhibited for hours near Madison, KS! Great video as always, Trey

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I forgot about that storm; excellent point! Thank you for watching!

[@marshallsweatherhiking1820]

I think thermodynamics can also be a factor sometimes, especially farther east. Initial storms are more resilient to destructive interaction when CAPE is very low to the ground. A good amount of CAPE in the lowest km above the LFC can make cells become super-cellular more quickly and established cells are more durable even with some cold pool interactions. Thick CAPE aloft OTOH often leads to wind bag events where the window for discrete action is very short. These considerations seem more important for late season events in the upper midwest. There are no dry-lines and cold fronts are almost never oriented ideally relative to shear. Sometimes tornadoes occur anyways so other factors are likely involved.

[@shannbil1]

Thanks for all your hard work! You rock Trey!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s my pleasure; thank you so much!

[@garretts.2003]

Thank you Trey. Appreciate everything you do!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s my pleasure; thank you very much for watching!

[@kellyngrey4950]

I've learned so much from your videos! I'm a uni adjunct prof and you are an awesome teacher. Thank you and keep being awesome!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words!

[@charisselinnell-morton4137]

Studying for what might be a good couple days after this heat wave on the Canadian prairie!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Heck yeah; best of luck!

[@paradoxicalpoet1525]

I had been wanting to see a video like this for a while. Finally my wish has come true!

[@Rhi_wx]

Another awesome video Trey!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you, Rhi!

[@aaronjones1469]

Awesome🙂👍 explanation. I like, how you really go into detail when describing certain features. Nice job.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much for the kind words!

[@weatherwild]

This helped me so much. Thank you!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

You bet; thanks for watching!

[@SvrWxArchive1807]

Hey! Love the videos! They've been really informative! Just an idea for a possible future video. Explain the difference between fixed layer/effective layer STP, Bulk Shear, and vorticity products on mesoanalysis. Trying to keep it all straight can get garbled sometimes.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I have a whole series planned on how to use SPC mesoanalysis, including breakdowns of all the parameters you listed. Not sure when I’ll get to it, but it’s high on my list of topics to cover.

[@ChasingKayleigh]

I love your presentations, you have a great voice 😊

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@Leigh_RSC]

Great exploration thank you

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@ZyrxRR]

Hi, keep up the weather. Love your videos keep it up

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@ZyrxRR]

@@ConvectiveChronicles no problem

[@Duck_87]

Can I ask a question? Where do you find the shear vector for the cold and warm fronts? Would it be on a sounding you pull near the front?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

You don’t have to pick shear vectors *exactly* on the front. Usually, they will be fairly uniform, so as long as you get something that’s close to the front, it should be fairly representative of the area in question. As far as models go, College of DuPage has bulk shear vectors on maps for the MUCAPE parameter.

[@Duck_87]

@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you

[@TallyTechandTroubleshooting]

Fantastic lesson, Trey! Quick question, when you have the "split" during the convective mode, and the shear vector is perpendicular, does the mode change for those that split and "merge" with right/left splitters (right-tornado potential and left hail potential)? I mean, do they actually merge (outflow ingestion?) If so, does the characteristics of these newly formed cells tend to have a different mode? Thanks again for ALL you do and thank you for your patience!! Trying to wrap my tired brain, lol!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you, Tal! The answer is yes, the storms can literally “run into each other” and merge. Sometimes when, say, a left split interacts/merges with a mature right split, the tornado threat can actually increase for a brief period. If you get a lot of these storm mergers, however, the mode can start to become a lot messier despite storms being discrete initially.

[@TallyTechandTroubleshooting]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you!

[@baileybrucem]

10/10