Could Japan Survive A Full First Strike From China? (WarGames 254) | DCS

[@grimreapers]

Re-match with US help: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fGaWlpJ3jrWEnbs

[@manjisaipoe517]

Just wanted to say thank you for your hard work creating this and getting it running as well as DCS will allow. Stay healthy and have fun Cap.

[@Doodelz02]

The conceptualizing, research, & sim prep, is all truly amazing, but at the end of the day, this is all about Cap's commentary! So entertsining!

[@SleepParalysis_5269]

R.I.P Cap's computer and Cap's server

[@mediacoregroupph]

DCS has VPS

[@everseeker]

so, what is a VPS? Can I eat it?

[@Steve-737]

​@@everseeker I bet it'll go well with ranch 😋

[@Hartwig870]

It lived a long life. Its probably nearly drinking age by now judging by how shit it handles things.

[@Wolfe351]

The Japanese navy is one of the most professional Navies in the World, their Kongo's and Atago's are very capable ships and some of their secondary older DDGs are fine ships too.

[@ArizonaAstraLLC]

Damn straight, they have a world-class navy

[@tamkin007]

Japan has friends and we would be on our way

[@SilverScarletSpider]

Please make it China vs South Korea 🇰🇷 and Japan 🇯🇵 working together Would love to see Canada 🇨🇦 vs India 🇮🇳 too

[@iFireKraken]

Yes

[@denis-mf3cx]

Japan have 8 current aegis destroyers (roughly equivalent to Arliegh Burke ?) and are building 2 “super” destroyers of approximately 25,000 tons each. I was very surprised & impressed when looking at the strength of their Naval anti missile capabilities.

[@steveyoutub76]

russians too

[@extraordinarytv5451]

Modern battlecruisers or more like modern battleships?

[@thor-cj9dh]

They don't need Godzilla, they need Mothra.

[@yuning8045]

Imagine being that one pilot who must explain how they got shot down by an ancient mig-21

[@timblack6422]

Thank you for all the hard work, Cap!

[@spikymikie]

Awesome that you referenced HLC. He's a great guy, and he knows his missile systems! I caught that he was trying to get up with you guys in one of his live streams.

[@jamison884]

Thanks for the video Cap!

[@grimreapers]

Thanks J. Every bit helps ATM.

[@jamison884]

@@grimreapers My pleasure. ❤

[@GTjaxson]

Thank you Cap. That was awesome.

[@clownmeat792]

Found out how the gyro fins work. Truly fascinating stuff.

[@bacco0447]

Hey Cap, do you plan on making some Sea Power videos? Maybe even playing viewer's made scenarios when it comes out? I would honestly love it

[@leonh.9651]

Yes sir! would be amazing

[@clangerbasher]

These war games really show how short legged aircraft are in reality. Never mind problems like overflying rights.

[@ObiWanShinobi917]

Why do you think the U.S. has the most massive fleet of Fuel Tankers in the world and practices mid-air refueling so much? We know that half the battle is reaching the battlefield with enough resources to fight at full strength. So we've made sure we are better at it than anyone else

[@clangerbasher]

@@ObiWanShinobi917 Utterly f'ing amazing. Where the f'ck did I mention the ruddy USA? COME ON WHERE D!CKHE@D? P'SS OFF YOU PR!C.

[@siraff4461]

@@ObiWanShinobi917 That and a load of carriers, forward operating bases and friendly support. The US military on its own is impressive but add in its allies and it really makes the rest look daft. Not just for amount of assets but also the level of them, training of the crews and support to them.

[@dgthe3]

​ @ObiWanShinobi917 @@siraff4461 Counterpoint to all that: the United States has 0 intention of fighting a war near home soil. So they need to be able to forward deploy their airforce.

[@therealaim-9xmissile]

I know fs that room was hot and that computer was sounding like a jet engine 😂

[@lutfullahkarahanli]

Been waiting for this one for a long time Cap! Thank you 🤩🔥☝️☝️

[@nibbler2281]

What an opening shot.

[@hughmungus2760]

one of the hidden strengths of the J20 is that it has enourmous range. estimated to be twice that of the F35. Meaning that extreme long distance missions like these are ideal for J20s.

[@clangerbasher]

This is something I have been thinking on and off about since the early 90's.

[@teresaharmon4405]

Cap no one gives you enough credit for making this as close as can be using the facts and DCS assets. Great work on the video!!!!!!

[@trentvlak]

What if defensive ships were surrounded by sacrificial cargo ships to decoy off the incoming missiles?

[@Modelstl063]

Surely they can differentiate

[@ArizonaAstraLLC]

Cap I looooove these videos Especially if I'm having a bad week or a bad day, seeing a new video (or more like four that I need to catch up on) absolutely make everything better!

[@RedTSquared]

Thanks for all that work Super Cap! Now, let your processors cool down!

[@apscreditcards]

I don’t believe the Japanese would be fought completely flat-footed if all the other events you described (taking the U.S. out of the game) we’re happening beforehand! Taiwan, North Korea, etc…

[@dgthe3]

At the very least, there'd probably be a few jets up flying combat air patrols -something which Cap never seems to model.

[@simonallen4791]

Funny how the Chinese overfly Jeju Island and the South Korean's don't respond? Where are those KDX 3? or the KF-16s, The F-15K or SK own Lightning 2s? So the US hasn't reinforced the whole West Pacific yet? No I would say allied assets are already flying OCA missions. That Sasebo Flotilla has sortied into the Yellow Sea theatre, aided by Additional USN Burkes. B-2s have already dispatched JASSM onto Chinese CCI with the BUFF & Rapid Dragon soon to join the fray. Western Subs are causing mayhem all along the Chinese Coast. A EXTREMELY PISSED OFF WESTERN Citizenry are looking to help in any way they can as mysterious hacking incidents on Chinese IT networks increase significantly. Planeloads of aid start ramping up slowly into Japan Taiwan and South Korea as all three are now at war Vietnam is on a hair trigger if the Chinese decide to try a push into Indo- China. South East Asia and Oceania offer assistance to Vietnam. The Indian Armed Forces have pushed into Chine controlled Kashmir. Modi's Government is in discussion with Nepal to allow Indian forces to transit they're territory has India launches a campaign to take back land the Chinese stole from them at the middle of the previous century. Also The liberation of the Urygers and Tibet is seriously being discussed by international partners. Chinese "Wonder Weapons" turn out to be far less capable as systems such as AIM 174B, THAAD, Boeing ORCA XLUUwV, Helios and "Loyal Wingman" CCAs. So no I don't think the scenario was realistic, BUT IT WAS ENTERTAINING 👍👍👍👍👍

[@theoneneo5024]

Nicely done Cap. Thanks for the video.

[@Lost_BANDAID]

Excellent battle. Thank you for the years of great breakdown

[@WilsonRawlins]

Like so many other's have expressed. Thank you for creating the best comprehensive battle/war scenarios in DCS. You and your team are a group of outstanding men and women. Great combat pilots with excellent coordination skills. Also, the official site for ejection seat and canopy testing. You guys are hilarious and a group of wonderful drinking buddies. I hope somehow you guys don't quit, but understand the situation. You should have 10 million plus subs and a million Patrion members.

[@smash79]

I think you confused between JH 7 which is a fighter bomber and the J-7 which is chinese version of the mig 21. In any case, during the the slide presentation of the wargame, it was talking about JH 7 and not J7. Cool video tho.

[@dobster5819]

Great video Cap but I do think you gave China a big advantage, the USA would never leave Japan on its own. Thanks very much.

[@Grumblemarc]

That, and I think that the US moving towards Korea would instantly cause the Japanese to move their forces west.... no delay in arrival of aircraft from the north...

[@Four9sFineJewelry]

Loved the HLC shoutout!

[@BEANLORD6-9]

THANKS

[@DrenoshGaming]

I don't know if they have them, but I don't see why they wouldn't, if I was against an outnumbered stealth jet squadron I would probably launch MALD's (made to have a fighter jets RCS ) ahead of the main fighter wings to try suck up the majority of the stealths missile's, this would allow the f35 squadron to have a better chance to pick off more 5th and 4th gen jets, would probably still loose but itd be closer. All I can say really is it's great news they have American support. Great video as always.

[@cassius_eu5970]

China could do the same so I just kinda balances out.

[@xpk0228]

Modern 5th gen has IRST (both J20 and F35 can slave IRST to radar track) to confirm if the target is a drone or a plane. at 40K feet it can see nearly as far as the radar can for sure.

[@Stinger522]

I knew the F-2s and F-15Js would get slaughtered before the match started. When fourth-generation fighters go up against fifth-generation fighters, they die. Period. The JASDF still managed to score some kills but their aircraft inventory needs a fifth-gen makeover.

[@markbecker71]

Thank you.. good work.

[@Hierachy]

Hi cap, great video! just wanted to comment on the Mogami frigate, it is japans newest combat ship, it is armed with 1 x 5 inch gun, ram on the back, 4 x 2 harpood or equivalent, and 16 x Mk-41 vls. i guess the closest ship you have is actually the constilation with a reduced weapons load, half the asm's and 16 x VLS for either quad-packed ESSM or an equivalent to ASROC. great video as always!

[@grimreapers]

Thanks

[@shygai]

Thank you for such a cool video!

[@GalaxyCat001]

What is it about the modern planes that makes them unpopular to fly by the other grim reapers?

[@grimreapers]

Hard to explain unless you play DCS but any plane beyond mid 90's is hugely simplified in DCS, more like a game plane rather than a sim plane. Guys don't want to fly that. Can't make them.

[@DH-.]

You forgot to factor in they Have a GODZILLA and Gundam Mech suits

[@missingdogmusic]

The prominent issue with these scenario's seems to be not being able to intercept enough missiles at longer ranges. How about converting an older CV to a missile truck by replacing the flight deck with many dozens of VLS containers and integrate it into the Aegis system? Even sacrificing part of the hangar capacity and up to 2 catapults of a current gen. carrier in favor of carrying 48 ESSM would likely increase the survivability of such an attack significantly.

[@blademaster2390]

Fun fact: there was actually a plan in the US Navy to do exactly this. Such a ship would’ve been classified as an “Arsenal Ship.” Unfortunately, the idea was abandoned due to costs and the inherent vulnerability of such a target. Fortunately, South Korea I believe is currently developing an Arsenal Ship of its own.

[@140theguy]

They were going to do something like this to the USS Missouri by removing the rear turret and adding 500 Tomahawk Cruise missiles. 😳

[@theiracible9993]

​@@blademaster2390Isn't it funny that an arsenal ship would be too obvious of a target .. but we'll drop billions on aircraft carriers like they're not

[@dgthe3]

@@140theguy Not sure how. VLS cells are about 2ft x 2ft. Turret is 37ft in diameter. So you could fit 9 missiles in the radius of that circle. Area = 3.14 x radius squared. A = 3.14 x 9 x 9 A = 254 VLS cells. Maybe it'd be slightly more, maybe slightly less. But it would never be 500 unless you were somehow double stacking missiles.

[@140theguy]

@@dgthe3 It was a complete redesign of the aft of the ship. Remember, the Missouri already carried around 40 tomahawks. One of the proposed designs had all three turrets removed and even more missiles.

[@CC-ns2ds]

Japan is not small by any means they are the worlds 3rd largest economy and the Tokyo Metropolitan area contains some 40 million people which is 2/3 the population of the UK at about 67 million people. They are just peaceful, hence the ‘Self-Defence Force’ part.

[@brucescott7016]

Thanks Cap, good scenario. One thing that seemed out of whack in the air combat was how good the J-20s were at dodging heat seekers. Is the game somehow applying their RCS reduction against the heat seekers by mistake?

[@jcremeringful]

Hey best Cap! 0:50

[@johnedwards1705]

should try the 174's on the Nippon side would be different for sure

[@robertschuster6428]

Love the HLC shout out.

[@jmtpolitico80]

So as of 10/15/24 the USS America (LHA-6) & Strike Group is Home port @ Sasebo, Japan. It doesn't list what ships are attached to the Amphibious Ready Group (ARG). But usually there are 2-3 Destroyers, & 1 Cruiser attached to any (ARG) or (CSG) Carrier Strike Group. And as I heard you say the (CSG) from Yokosuka, Japan went to Taiwan. As that would be the USS George Washington (CVN-73) which is en route to it's new Home Port now. But I guess what I am trying to say, is there are way more Naval & Air Assets either at Japanese Bases &/or South Korean Bases as of late. I only know this cause I map the Movement of the US Navy & Marines that get or are deployed. And I track their movements around the world as it usually tells a Story, and gives you a Huge Picture of that Story. There are 3 areas of Huge Naval & Air Force Asset Presence. The Med Area, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden/Oman, and the Indo-Pacific! There are almost always 2 Carrier Strike Groups in the Indo-Pacific at all times, plus an Amphibious Ready Group along with its Strike Group. So I think sending the Yokosuka Fleet to Taiwan wouldn't happen. Only because there is always another (CSG) Operating in that region which is there to Respond to China. When the Yokosuka (7th Fleet) is Home Ported their to Protect Japan. So I believe it wouldn't leave Japanese water unless another Carrier entered the region. So I personally believe that Japan was highly under Supported. And I think the South Korean Navy would help as well, even if the North started Invading across the (DMZ). Not the entire Navy, but at least a dozen or more ships would come to help Japan. Cause they know China can't take or Destroy Japan for their own security. I also believe there is at least 1 squadron of F-22s in Japan. There were 2 Squadrons sent there a few months back, but 1 of those squadrons may have been dispatched to the Middle East, but I am not sure. So I just believe Japan was highly under-defended by Sea for sure, not so bad by air, but still under-defended in the Air as well. But I am not criticising your work, this is still a huge, very good wargame! I know you put in a ton of Time on this Project as well. So I do Thank You for everything and your hard work! You are Simply the Best in the Scientific Way you setup your Wargames and love you do it the way you do. I hate Scripted work. It shows absolutely nothing, but cheating. So you have my Props in that way as well! But Thank You again very much for your endless hard work....

[@Ewen6177]

Cap great vid. But one thing bothers me. WIth the increase of all the international tension. I'm rather sure. A, Japan would have a least 2 -3 CAP flights up. B their navy would be deployed further out and with more dpeth and width for their coverage. C, ELINT and COMINT would have certainly picked up on this.

[@allanridgewell8651]

Based on that opening missile strike... You absolutely could have a US carrier group in that harbour. I assume you could add as many missiles you want to take it out, what would be cool is if only a few f35's get up and only 1 or so DD's are left it would be similar in result.

[@jeffknight4706]

Thanks for all the hard work in building the scenario. Has Japan deployed the Ground AEGIS system yet?

[@jamison884]

Yeah, that was really strange to watch. Just going by the video of when you selected a missile to follow, it seemed like every CH/RU missile you tracked found its target (except for some missed on the F-35 per stealth), but the AIM-120's were missing quite badly versus the non-stealth. DCS AIM-120D1 needs to go back to DCS university!

[@mfreed40k]

Finally HLC! Buff and Franklin 2024

[@leepatterson5710]

I know you say it doesn't matter where the launchers are for interception, but even if that is true one of these missiles nearly took out the entire site. If they were spread out the launchers would be harder to take out.

[@CodeReptileEng]

56:13 - DIABOLICAL

[@svensvensson2724]

I'm sure you meant to say China has a good reason for it's massive airforce and navy because of Japan's history.

[@toasteroven6761]

Also if war comes the shipyard industry of SK and Japan are very important considering how far the US is behind in that field compared to China. Unfortunately unlike domestic shipyards in the US (we need more), these SK and Japanese shipyards as big as they are, are just much more vulnerable to attack to rely on as the US.

[@reaperbsc]

The US builds the best ships in the world bro. Wtf are you talking about? Twice china's tonnage.

[@AmirShafeek]

​@@reaperbscI'm going to refer you to a KZbin channel called the Eurasia naval insight what's the Chinese may not outclass the Americans by tonnage that won't be the case and maybe a decade or two the Chinese produce far more ships than America does

[@andrewhirsch6472]

@@reaperbsc : That's only a snapshot of right now, and it is changing, rapidly. China has literally 25 times the shipbuilding capacity as the U.S. And that's only ships.This simulation didn't feature land-based medium-range ballistic missiles at all, and China has more of those than the rest of the world combined.

[@TheRebelAllianceAreTerrorists]

@@reaperbsc Average American response

[@mphelps1013]

Possible idea Cap for when it comes to why you had to remove the Carriers from the scoreboard. Obviously you had to take the CVs off the board otherwise their cost on sinking would skew the bottom line. Would it be possible to create an in game entity to spawn on or near enough the CV such that it would also be destroyed with said CV? If so, you can assign the correct cost to said spawned entity. Maybe call it a Treasure Goblin.

[@wrayday7149]

So the Chinese missiles work..... when they work. The major issue China has is quality control across all aspects. When they build one for testing they are hyper focused..... when it comes to mass production.... whole other beast. If this were real I wouldn't be surprised if the manufacturer failure rate is between 30-40%. Probably 10% miss target rate.

[@dgthe3]

I'd also suspect that nominal performance of most of their stuff is at best about 90% of what is claimed. While for most western equipment equipment, you should expect about 110%. At least as a general rule of thumb. That'd have a massive impact on any of these wargames.

[@wrayday7149]

@@dgthe3 It's all tied into lazy corruption. If the fuel needed to power the missiles requires a specific mixture and they ran low on one component.... instead of waiting they just put something else in to get past weight checks.

[@hughmungus2760]

@@dgthe3 actually the west isn't much better. F35s falling out of the sky and patriots operated by Saudis failing to hit Yemeni rockets come to mind.

[@hughmungus2760]

@@wrayday7149 do you have any evidence of this? Stupid claims about water being used as fuel in Solid fuelled rockets sound about as believable as handwaving US forces as being 'too woke to fight" because of DEI

[@lippertwe]

I know you state caveats a lot here, and you and developers do their best - but I'm unconvinced that a ballistic missile can hit a moving and maneuvering ship. The guidance system on a ballistic missile is not proven, and faces so many challenges. But I know it is an unknown; but perhaps a much lower PoK could be programmed in?

[@jefftaylor8321]

Cap, what are your Computer specs?

[@grimreapers]

5900X AMD 3080 32gb

[@surters]

@@grimreapers what does the server need more, threads, ram or gfx?

[@ThatZenoGuy]

We demand modernized Kirov being tested!

[@aaron_flint]

I appreciate your hard work putting these games together however you have mistaken the JH7 for the J7. The JH7 is a strike aircraft, additionally I believe modelling the J16s particularly the J16D would be a vital part of China's strength as they are electronic warfare fighters which would probably have a big effect on the battle outcome.

[@Al.Caller]

HURRAY Cap!!! You know who Habitual Line Crosser is! I love how he calls the great China West Taiwan 😅

[@scottdelorenzi3513]

Bases are pronounced "Nee-Yu-Ta-Bah-Ru" and "Suu-ick-ee" on the island of "Kee-Yu-shu"

[@Four9sFineJewelry]

Have you ever considered doing a live stream of a battle? It would be a great way for you all to interact with your followers, raise some money, and for us to see how this is all done.

[@grimreapers]

hmmm will consider.

[@hughmungus2760]

@@grimreapers we can watch and laugh at server bug shenanigans in real time

[@jcremeringful]

Awesome battle

[@myke5696]

I'm not sure about this. Wouldn't China start with ballistic missiles against the air bases, maybe combined with simultaneous attacks (by fighter or cruise missile) against antiballistic missile defenses?

[@Covfefe_Jelly]

I don't think cap has the pc resources for such a simulation. He already has to skirt around ALOT just to get a simpleish scenario going bc these huge war games are so intensive for a flight sim.

[@andrewsmall6834]

The Japanese self defence force could self defend the fuck out of most of the world's countries.

[@ryanblucher200]

How can I display that scoreboard and the cost counter in the top right?

[@msstegman2]

what PC specs is your currently? I saw a video on all the Grim reapers PCs but that was a few years ago. An update would be cool.

[@grimreapers]

Same. 5900X AMD 3080 32gb

[@Wolfe351]

in the scoreboard pretty sure the 20x ESSM I is the sea sparrow rim7's

[@grimreapers]

Gotcha

[@geoffreyofmonmouth9796]

Did you really say "pass the mustard test?" :) It's "pass muster", as in be in good order when mustered on the parade ground.

[@siraff4461]

He knows.

[@likwidchris]

Been a while since I've been this early

[@SteveConrad-l9j]

They're watching now 😁

[@t.r.4496]

I see Chinese Taxpayer and I think US citizen ordering TEMU.

[@ThànhHoàngNgọc-w8r]

it funny when people called this fight bias favor china when entire japanese airforce include many old jet all equip with AIM-120D , meanwhile nearly half of chinese air force equip with old russian R-77 and using mig-21

[@ticonderoga4915]

IIRC Chu-SAM is roughly equivalent to ESSM instead of SM-1

[@anthonygaming9227]

This shows offense is way way cheaper than defense

[@cartwright1231]

Just bought a computer, DCS and an F-18 stick…. How do I become a reaper?

[@grimreapers]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/kJDXg2p-bM2oa9E

[@timblack6422]

Journey, Cap!

[@Covfefe_Jelly]

Great vid cap though I believe it's pronounced like Fu-jo not Fuz-how lol

[@valuedhumanoid6574]

I don't believe any nation could survive that kind of over saturation. Especially going Mach 10 and doing a midcourse jink to mess up the intercept calculations. Maybe THAAD could help because it can maneuver in the thin air of 300,000 feet. No, that would be it. And those defensive missiles did pretty well getting what they got.

[@piconano]

What spec computer do you need to run your setup without crashing?

[@grimreapers]

5900X AMD 3080 32gb

[@dsong2006]

JH-7 is not a MiG-21 clone, its a not even an intercepter, its a supersonic strike aircraft focus on antiship and land attack similar to a Jaguar. Also it was built in the early 90s and 2000s not in the 60s.

[@jasonvick55]

Would the U.S. need to deploy troops and assets from Japan, to the North Korean border? The U.S. has many naval assets, among many other assets, including 30k troops, in South Korea. Would that not be sufficient?

[@ohiobrian8993]

One day I hope you take the time to research modern ship naval tactics. You don't set up your ships in any correct tactical deployment, ever. If you did, your simulations would be more realistic.

[@savage4967]

I may be dumb but is there a way too control the ai real time? like have a few people vectoring the aircraft telling them where too look etc.. ??(as the battle is taking place on both sides) would love too see if its possible.

[@wombatgirl997]

Continuing the proud tradition of AI F-35 pilots being incompetent!

[@ObiWanShinobi917]

Japan was never expected to defend itself. Thats why the U.S. is stationed there. Lol. China could never hope to attack Japan like this in real life. Theyd rely on long range missiles to weaken Japan, and just hope that American Air Defense isnt as good as advertised. (Spoiler, we know it is) Still an interesting theoretical though

[@hughmungus2760]

actually a chinese attack would rely on the tried and true method of saturation. We already know china is producing Shaheed type drones for the Russians and those things can be mass produced in the tens of thousands, easily depleting any air defence the US or Japan can field .

[@peribe438]

That whats happens when you don’t invest in defense. Learn from history.

[@HooLeeSheetMOVIERECAP]

What if US is the first to attack. You always make US on the defensive light. Cant they attack?

[@dgthe3]

Please describe a somewhat sensible scenario in which the United States launches a preemptive strike against a nuclear power.

[@tupuducul-t8n]

look like pearl harbor 2024 ^^

[@jf895]

Hi, Cap! How much of the LUA scripting do you guys do for your missions?

[@grimreapers]

Depends on the scenario TBH.

[@Al.Caller]

You should watch Unsubscribed Podcast. Fat Electrician, Brandon Harrera, Donut Operator and Eli Double tap plus funny guests.

[@theTokyoBill]

Hit me up for any future Japanese help you may want! 😇

[@johnwolf2829]

Your friends don't want to play with the Modern stuff anymore? Huh..... I guess you need a good "what if?" Scenario. How about seeing if Italy could have taken Aden in an improvised air & sea attack on June 11, 1940? I know it sounds weird, but to make Italy formidable in WW2 all you have to do is introduce a Japanese level of pre-war planning. So, waves of SM-79 and Ca-133 vs. a couple of Gladiators? Kinda like Malta, but higher stakes once Berbera also falls. If not, how about Jets with guns ONLY, like in Korea or the Mid East. Oh.... if you want to play one where every plane counts, how about Israel in 1948? You could have Me-109 and Mustangs on one side vs. Spits and Mossies on the other side!

[@amunra5330]

No it cant.

[@matthewkern3619]

Your findings imply the West should strike first. This is concerning.

[@Archer89201]

Do the Patriot launcher costs not add to the money tally?

[@blainesitter9110]

Chinese air force attacks Japan , do they have to fight their way home through South Korean air force ? when they are out of Weapons ??