Could Taiwan Survive A TOTAL Attack From China, Without US Help? (WarGames 201) | DCS

[@grimreapers]

Re-Match With US Help: kzbin.info/www/bejne/aIDTq6eLaduIaLM

[@idawald]

You have overlooked one thing. China has a large number of rocket launchers with a range of 200-400 kilometers. These rockets have precision guidance functions and are cheap. These are the first weapons to attack Taiwan. Dongfeng is used to fight the United States, not Taiwan. In addition, the entire Taiwan Strait is within the range of China's land-based anti-aircraft missiles, so air combat missile exchange scenes are unlikely to occur on such a large scale. Likewise, a fleet battle is unlikely, as both are within the range of land-based anti-ship missiles.

[@lijakobs2583]

correct, no way so many J20 taken down. they do over-the-horizon attacks and those j16 and mirage2000 have no chance.

[@YYLiow]

In reality the J20 would land and rearm and fire PL15 again but his server would crash that's why the J20 went to dogfight. J20 are not meant to dogfight and hence they were shot down by F16

[@paulsu8749]

This is not a real simulation. It’s just a game.

[@ex0duzz]

Yep china has MLRS with 500km range. Like himars, but ones with much cheaper cost. They can cover whole of taiwan from the mainland basically. See PHL-16, or also known as PCL-191, with range on newer versions up to 500km. Or PHL-03, the older one with range up to 200km. China also has many other short range missiles like the WS(WeiShi) series, including B-611 with ranges from 150-400km. That's just a few known ones. China has dozens of variants on different missile types for different jobs and ranges. Taiwan is basically toast if anything pops off. China can manufacturer ten thousand a day or more if they wanted, including drones too. China wouldn't have to use any jets or ships or risk anything.. if USA comes close, long range anti ship missiles. China would be fighting inside their anti air umbrella, like s400 which can cover whole of Taiwan itself, along with its ship based anti air systems (whole navy worth), and the whole of the Chinese air force to also defend against any jets which do make it close enough to do, well, something. I dunno what usa can do except be like a fly that just annoys but can't really do any real damage or change the balance of power since usa will never attack Chinese mainland unless they want USA mainland to also be attacked. So usa can only try to pick off some ships or jets which will all be under China's A2AD umbrella and USA will have like a few jets vs China's whole military might which is just suicide. It will be like chinas total force concentration vs a few jets or few ships or few subs, which would just be usa throwing away those assets for no reason. China doesn't even need to do a physical blockade, they can just shoot rockets and missiles from the mainland itself to destroy any jets or ships trying to arrive or leave Taiwan Island.

[@chenisikymoh]

host also overlooked Taiwan already has own manufactured mid and long range cruise missiles which able to reach most large cities included Beijing . also , there were no victory record say total air strike without ground troop could win a war.

[@totalNERD-eo7wx]

Fun Fact: China has more J-11s than Russia has Flankers total. That is _Just_ J-11s.

[@loadingnewads]

@Russia what are you doing here as the former top 1 enemy of US?

[@ylstorage7085]

when you unlocks copy paste in real world

[@loadingnewads]

@@ylstorage7085 Chinese J11 and J16 are filled with their own tech

[@NathanDrake0410]

Russia's radar / electrics / air to air missiles really didn't catch up since Soviet collapsed. J-11 / J-16 are completely different beasts than Flankers now @@ylstorage7085

[@迈德尔]

When CIA robots are at work

[@Gieslly]

No, I refuse to accept that 2021 was 3 years ago, Cap!!

[@panzerabwerkanone]

Time denier!

[@anthonyb5279]

@@panzerabwerkanone Einstein said time is relative to the observer.

[@Gieslly]

@@panzerabwerkanone kzbin.info/www/bejne/p2PRf62EpMSLptU more of a timey-wimey guy :)

[@grimreapers]

yaaarp

[@RT-qd8yl]

2006 was 2 years ago as long as I believe it was.

[@junkotamiya]

Minor math mistake... 1/3 of Taiwan's 45 F-2000s is 15, but Cap mistakenly put 12 instead.

[@grimreapers]

Thanks

[@ivorharden]

Maybe 3 were being serviced in the shop???

[@paulvamos7319]

​@@ivorharden😂

[@PhoenixT70]

Meh, three planes is within the margin of error for maintenance and such.

[@dexlab7539]

“Nerd” as Cap would say to you 😂

[@hoyavp2236]

I love being a valued viewer. Thank you

[@_d3642]

Hello, viewer from Taiwan here. Please do more scenarios when more DCS mods are available, thanks cap

[@grimreapers]

Pleasure

[@dexlab7539]

hi Taiwan 😊

[@leung4033]

Taiwan soldiers morale is low. All people wanna others to go to frontline but not himself. Everyone wanna American to fight for them.

[@tackle9ax327]

Full of craps on this channel, I don't even need to listen further just the first stage you were talking about DF21 I have already laughed hard out 😂😂, DF21 range 2000km, it's a hypersonic land based missle target US aircraft carrier. 055 is not for Taiwan either, 055 and Liaoning will stay at easten Taiwan to stop US and Japanese to join.😊

[@tackle9ax327]

By the way, Taiwan is part of China, so if something happens, only a civil conflict

[@ryabow]

15:19 Cap: "still can't see the patriot sites." the patriot sites: "but we can see you!"

[@manjisaipoe517]

Fun to watch, and your never wasting our time Cap, were here because we want to be.😊

[@MTBScotland]

If there was such a build up I would expect a carrier group to be close by.

[@shaunholt]

💯. If China tries to launch a surprise invasion, they won't have the pieces in place to support the invasion beyond the first few days, let alone weeks or months. And if they geared up for a large invasion, we would see them moving fuel, ammo, missiles, aircraft, etc. to the area, and move more assets to the region as well.

[@Gentleman...Driver]

Depends if Trump wins the election or not. Biden stated the US would participate in a military conflict if China dared to attack Taiwan. Trump says "America first" and isnt a fan of NATO and the rest of the US allies.

[@patrickdowney2126]

Absolutely. Likely more than one.

[@anthonyb5279]

@@patrickdowney2126 There are 3 there right now.

[@steveyoutub76]

@user-mu5xt2tr4n 有多少水？

[@bytesback.]

0:06 There goes the framerate !

[@grimreapers]

Yup

[@deepat]

Haven't missed an episode since.

[@grimreapers]

awwww :)

[@mikeminard2929]

Are the Perry class frigates bugged? they don't seem to ever fire SM-1's or SM-2's at anything. I saw another one of your videos with a few in it, and they didn't fire anything either.

[@grimreapers]

They can't target the hypersonics and struggle against the high supersonics at low level.

[@boredatsea]

have you ever seen the 76mm used in anti air/anti missile, go to any allied missile range and see our good the 76mm is against, ships use link 10/11 to talk to each other plus other networking tools, NCDS is not that bad@@grimreapers

[@galaxymyt4834]

​@@grimreapers sm2 can't stop ballistics are you sure

[@nekomakhea9440]

Cap, it's not "scaling down available platforms because we have limited server resources", it's "only 1/3 of total platforms are available due in part because it would take months to cram their entire force into one area while at the same time making surprise attacks impossible just like Russian the buildup prior to the Ukrainian War, because amassing all their force in one place would make other areas open to counter-attack and leave them without a reserve, and due to limited maintenance and logistical capacity". You gotta role play it a bit.

[@GalaxyCat001]

the other 2/3's are defending the rest of Taiwan which is being attacked by the other 2/3's of the attacking force

[@morrischen5777]

@@GalaxyCat001 Forces preservation strategy is a crucial thing for Taiwanese forces that will hide many of their assets in mountain hangers and secret bases to pervent early loss from Chinese first wake of percision missiles strike. So only having 1/3 of the forces present is not far from reallity.

[@GalaxyCat001]

@@morrischen5777 So in that case China will only use 1/3 of its forces in the initial volley

[@Uhnoofficial]

came here to say this. their bunkers and mountain fortifications are no doubt extensive and deep. They've had years to prepare for a threat that they know WILL eventually come@@morrischen5777

[@RT-qd8yl]

It's the total number of Chinese aircraft actually in combat ready condition

[@t.r.4496]

Taiwan stands a bigger chance than Ukraine, they don't have as much land to defend and they are on an island.

[@Chickenworm9394]

In other words they are sitting ducks. There won't be supply from other countries like

[@23100Battlefield]

With mountains btw

[@karlkobler218]

This isn’t a battle of attrition like Ukraine. It’ll be a battle of speed. If Taiwan can hold off for long enough, the US counterattack on the invasion fleet would be devastating. The longer China waits the worse their chances get.

[@roli4040]

Taiwan is well fortified with fortresses all over the mountains. Even if the airforce and the navy gets overwhelmed, the Chinese still would have to get the landing ships to the shore. I guess the Taiwanese would fight just as determined as the Ukrainians

[@thegungadfly8930]

England was invaded only once, by William the Conqueror in 1066. In modern terms, the French, the Germans, the Spanish etc all tried and died. That is with a water barrier of only 40 miles. Plus, China has never been a “Naval power”. Taiwan might not “win” but the Chinese will never plant their flag on Taiwan again.

[@primosquash3741]

Semi-valued viewer here. I Never miss an episode

[@grimreapers]

You are my kind of VV!

[@blackhawknz1699]

F16V is Block70/72 with AESA Radar

[@fatboy9899]

And the AIM-120C-8 is the international customer variant of the AIM-120D-3, which on would presume would be equipped to the F-16V's

[@WildeBoone-jq8ru]

And radar jamming against Russian/China radar.

[@galaxymyt4834]

​@@fatboy9899 they have patriot and SM2 too with self made air defense system

[@万花筒-y6l]

有个小问题，为什么J20发射完pl15之后不做机动规避动作，而是直直地冲到敌机阵营中？这显然不符合PLAA对于J20的定位--它甚至没有机载机枪。然而我们注意到有几架F16进行了规避动作并规避了PL15导弹。你的设定似乎可以更完善一些，让J20表现得更符合当下PLAA的战略定位，这会使你的模拟缺少真实性。

[@dougroberts3840]

Awesome battle, thanks for airing it

[@tommy1808]

Hsiung Feng III is a 3000 pound class Mach 3.5 ASM from Taiwan... not only Harpoon type.

[@kf6796]

And the tk3 sam should be in the class of s300, and they have tomahawk type land attack cruise missile, the hf2e

[@banerda2334]

And it is very accurate in hitting fishing boat

[@Ken00213]

How can't it catch much bigger vessel if it can hit the small fishing boat? The accident proved the missile acquiring formidable ability to strike the target.

[@宏-v4r]

@@Ken00213 说明容易被雷达反射更强烈的渔船吸引，船上大量金属框会形成大量雷达波反射，舰船干净整洁的外形会减少反射

[@Ken00213]

@@宏-v4r 你的意思是玻璃纖維比金屬船體的船更容易反射雷達波?當時在該海域的船可不只有這一艘喔?

[@jagerdergroe8604]

Would be interesting to see the fighter fight again scaled down to 10% but using realistic tactics.

[@nrconnor2598]

Realistic tactics? You're on the wrong channel for that.

[@XCutie782]

Hey cap, shouldn't the ballistics missiles making it through shut down the airport?

[@grimreapers]

I have no idea TBH.

[@dexlab7539]

Yes, that would quickly eliminate Taiwan airforce response. Taiwan has Zero chance of countering a REAL 1st strike by China

[@panzerabwerkanone]

Yes do a US involvement scenario but to be realistic you would have to have a few Virginia class subs making artificial reefs out of the Chinese Navy.

[@shaunholt]

Also Chinese carriers (if they even are involved in the campaign) would probably only launch around 25 aircraft, not everything. They're steam-propulsion with electromagnetic catapults. That's like trying to run a supercomputer via a potato. It takes a lot of juice to launch, and you don't get as much juice with steam power. So the U.S. launches all aircraft. China launches only a few. Command and tactics completely favors the U.S., which has been waging constant war for near the past hundred years.

[@shaunholt]

I don't even know why China would use its aircraft carriers vs Taiwan. There's only a short distance between the mainland and Taiwan. Just takeoff from the mainland. I'd only think the carriers might be stationed east of the island, deterring any aid to Taiwan. The danger there though is they would have to leave the safety of the mainland, e.g. mainland anti-air and anti-sub defenses. The carriers would be sitting ducks, and the U.S. could attack from Okinawa, Guam, or the Philippines. But IF the U.S. is only giving military and financial aid to Taiwan, not actively engaging in combat, maybe China's carriers would keep them at bay and shut off access to the island, preventing any aid to reach them. But the U.S. would pretty much have to decide to abandon Taiwan, which would be pretty senseless politically.

[@hughmungus2760]

Oh and the thing about submarine warfare is. the faster you run the easier you are to find. So US subs likely won't even reach the battlefront until weeks in out of fear of tripping over the chinese version of SOSUS and getting ASW aircraft coming after them.

[@shaunholt]

@@hughmungus2760 Subs could be and probably already are all over that area. Probably at any given time have 2-4 subs off the coast of China, North Korea, Iran, and both the eastern and western ports of Russia.

[@liran547]

@@shaunholtthe east sea and waters around Taiwan are reletively too shallow for nuclear subs to operate. it is really dangerous for subs to go around Taiwan. if there is conflict, there going to be an air and a surface war

[@Retly_Ai]

I respect the effort put into this but It’s fascinating that people take this simulation seriously.

[@mbarnlund]

Cool story bro. Fuck off and watch another channel.

[@Retly_Ai]

@@mbarnlund glad to know you can’t comprehend what I’m saying.

[@danconway660]

Cap - in any retaliatory follow-up involving the US - assuming the US has a few C-17s at Kadena - a flight of those loaded up with Rapid Dragon targeting the Chinese Naval assets could clear the Taiwan Straight for the arrival of the US 7th Fleet. The C-17 has a range of approx 2400 nautical miles so flying 300 miles west out of Kadena, targeting the Chinese vessels and unleashing a barrage of LRASMs at the Chinese would certainly be feasible. JASSM-ERs could additionally be used to target Chinese airbases in the region - again, softening up targets prior to any US Naval assets entering the area...

[@grimreapers]

OK

[@aa1944-k2r]

I would say the stats of the airbattle is not modeled properly. The only fighter that can put on a fight is F16V for taiwan, and they are on the same level as Chinese J10C, and J10C is better on air 2 air due to better radar and better missile, but poorer on multi role purpose. J16 is the most powerful Chinese fighter outside of J20, and they are better than J15A, while J11B are being upgraded to J11BG with AESA radars again. I think what happened here is J10 are all modeled as J10A (early 2000s standard), which would be inferior to F16V, J11 are modeled as J11A (chinese built su27) or Su27 from the 90s (basically soviet base model su27), which are inferior to F16V, but in real life, J11A is a rare sight because very few were ever built and most they built are J11B, which are being upgraded to J11BG. in theory, PLAAF should decimate taiwan airforce without the help of J20, it is not a fair fight. China has the biggest fighter fleet with AESA radars and advanced missiles, only behind the USA. So the result doesnt make too much sense...J20 is probably modeled as a much inferior version of F22 or F35 I feel, which is subjective and fine. China also has specialist EW fighter the J15D, like the EA-18G Growler, very specialized and expensive and rare asset. JH7 is still being used, they are fighter bomber and can launch anti ship missiles. Taiwan do have more advanced domestic produced anti ship missiles. HQ9 is not related to S300, it has been debunked many times. but overall its a fun simulation.

[@WarDaddyUSA]

hey cap you did a great job along with all grim reapers. I would love to see a war game on a simulated attack on guam. with modern assets. from my research, guam has nasaams and the iron dome. along with patriot. and man pads. and of course the new Land based AEGIS system. would be a fun watch

[@pike100]

Guam has Israel's Iron Dome??? I don't think that Israel sells that technology.

[@donkeysunited]

@@WarDaddyUSA From what I can find online, it's an Israeli product but the Israeli company (Rafael) agreed to work with a US company (Raytheon) so the US could produce it too: "Iron Dome is the world’s most used multi-mission air defence missile system developed by Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, a state-owned defence technology company in Israel. The system was deployed by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) in March 2011 following the rocket attacks it had experienced in preceding years from Lebanon and Gaza." "The U.S. Army selected IRON DOME as an interim capability to counter cruise missiles. Two batteries were procured, and delivered in record time, to protect U.S. assets in contested areas. RAFAEL has partnered with Raytheon through a U.S. based Joint Venture - Raytheon Rafael Area Protection Systems (R2S) - to produce the IRON DOME in America. Currently at 70%, it is expected that in the near future, 100% will be Made in the U.S.A."

[@WarDaddyUSA]

@@pike100 well, if you know anything about military news. You would know that Guam was testing the iron dome, along with other air defenses. iron dome was developed with major help from the United States.

[@littleboy3459]

Guam is far from china, they would need several tankers and lots of h-6 bombers with escorts, isr platforms, etc, They'd probably just missile strike it from the mainland even to minimal rffect

[@骑士骑士]

This ugly video title and content.. It's quite like saying. Can California or Florida independently resist American attacks? When the central government will suppress local rebellions is an internal matter of the china, and you really don't need to care about it. You should pay more attention to your own domestic affairs..

[@Hot1765]

13:24 nice red rockets !!

[@abestea]

They look like bingo markers!

[@The136th]

Taiwan is within range of Chinese rocket artillery (300km range) and tactical ballistic missiles (500km range). Attack from 100s of MRLS and Swam of UAV is far more likely. The fact that you use DF-21 to simulate the attack means that your scenario is wrong from the get go.

[@PagsPayback]

The vast majority of Chinese "long range" MLRS rockets can't hit, or can only barely hit Taiwan mainland, even if fired from the shore. Even the 200km range rockets would bleed enough speed at this range, that the lower tier Skyguard systems and TC2L systems should have little to no problems countering them(not even speaking about the TK2). The closest Pac3 position is more than 200 km from china mainland. At that point the MLRS rockets are not rockets anymore, but 4-700 mm ballistic missiles with one or two canisters per launcher, being placed very close to the shore. Which leads us to the next problem. Amassing enough systems to make a viable saturation attack. That takes time and it is quite conspicuous if all are placed in the same spot. Now Taiwan have their own short range ballistic missiles and a long range early warning radar PAVE PAWS. China has to expect that Taiwan attacks larger clusters of launchers and or infrastructure like bridges that could trap them on the coastal islands, as soon as they spot the first wave of missiles. Making subsequent attacks less effective or even impossible. Considering that China is using AD systems that are derived from Russian systems, which have not exactly covered themselves with glory lately, they should be worried about relying too much on it's effectiveness. Next problem is intelligence. These scenarios with saturation attacks nearly always assume perfect intelligence about the enemies position. In reality that is never really the case. As an example, what is the gain when China sends 200 UAVs to deplete local air defensens, but then only hits empty warehouses and maybe a runway, which can be patched in 24 hours?

[@The136th]

@@PagsPayback Wrong, go get a map lol. -Most Chinese long range MRLS (370mm) has a range of 300+km, which cover most of the Island. Also, if you still think Chinese system are Russians in 2024, then you too ignorant of Chinese systems to talk. China is literally ahead of the US in radar and senor tech and still think Chinese uses Russian system?

[@PagsPayback]

@@The136th Most sources place the BRE-6 (370mm PHL-16) at ~200km 220km max. And that is already with extended range via glidepath. At that range, even the old Hawk system should have no problem intercepting them. "China is literally ahead of the US in radar and senor tech" That's funny, that's the same thing people said about Russia 2 years ago. Btw. back then everybody was proud to point out the Russian heritage of chinese AD systems.

[@The136th]

@@PagsPayback The export variant of the 370mm rocket has a range of 290km, the domestic version has 300km+ range. Those are direct info from the arm expo in the middleeast. Your Wikipedia sources are BS. "That's funny, that's the same thing people said about Russia 2 years ago. Btw. back then everybody was proud to point out the Russian heritage of chinese AD systems." Really? You must be living in a parallel universe since China already had better radar than the Russians since the 90s and the US since the 2000s

[@wxhqyfpy]

Attack from 1000s of MRLS and Swam of UAV is far more likely.

[@Xerethane]

The technical stuff at the beginning gives the video more meaning imo. Thanks for all the wargames, I really appreciate that you try to improve as you gain skill, new mods, and game updates.

[@jdickson1234]

I like how you use real players as the bad guys. Only way to learn.

[@shankewang5802]

How does the Sky Sword II compare to the AIM120C5? One's a mk6 rated missile and the other's a mk4 missile, does it make a difference? Or is the Sky Sword II is kinda like the R-37 which is difficult to manoeuvre

[@DSG-nc1oe]

The distance between Taiwan and Chinese mainland is simply not necessary for ballistic missiles. Long-range rocket artillery and tactical missiles will be the first choice for attacking Taiwan. Taiwan does not have an Iron Dome system and does not have a missile defense system. Therefore, these weapons are more cost-effective.

[@galaxymyt4834]

They have such like that and they have point to point defense system like phalanx

[@eaches]

Just watched "Masters of the Air" episode three. Damn good show. Ya'll should try reenacting that mission.

[@dexlab7539]

Sounds like a good show - too bad only on AppleTV that almost nobody has 😞

[@eaches]

@@dexlab7539 Indeed. There has been a veritable..... torrent... of similar complaints.

[@九和32梁立昕]

uh, where did you get the information about ROC air force? Because we actually have more fighters, we have 140xF-16 A/B block 20, 66xF-16 C/D block 70, 54xM-2000, 129xF-CK-1, and 43xF-5 (according to wikipedia and ROC air force website), I have no idea why the data are different in different languages if we are searching the same thing, but I am pretty sure my data is more accurate since it is publish by the ROC air force website.

[@lol3ndir]

don't rely on wikipedia.

[@ZweiZwolf]

None of those matter, because the airbases will be destroyed immediately. What survives the missile strike and interceptors won't be able to take off or land on cratered runways.

[@九和32梁立昕]

@@lol3ndir It seems like Cap is using wiki as well, and I also checked on the ROC air force website too, I am pretty sure the data in the video is incorrect

[@will4519]

China’s central military theatre is strategic reserve, you should at least count that in. It’s like a fifth of China vs Taiwan which is very unrealistic

[@Evocati-Augusti]

In 2 years your going to have to add all the great R&D coming out of Japan finally...which is going to be a game changer.

[@team3am149]

Too much CNN and Fox News.

[@AMOUREDD]

Game changer

[@Evocati-Augusti]

16 years USAF 1N7@@team3am149

[@Evocati-Augusti]

I dont watch the news, i research everything myself...like everyone should@@team3am149

[@renaissancenovice7202]

The awaited video has come!!

[@ney9781]

It is up to you.

[@ex0duzz]

China has MLRS with 500km range. Like similar to himars, but ones with much cheaper cost and longer range. They can cover whole of taiwan from the mainland easily. And that's just one variant, China has dozens of variants with different missiles and shells for every role. See PHL-16, or also known as PCL-191, with range on newer versions up to 500km. Or PHL-03, the older one with range up to 200km. China also has many other short range missiles like the WS(WeiShi) series, including B-611 with ranges from 150-400km. That's just a few known ones. China has dozens of variants on different missile types for different jobs and ranges. Taiwan is basically toast if anything pops off. China can manufacturer ten thousand a day or more if they wanted, including thousands of drones a day too. China wouldn't even have to use any jets or ships or risk anything.. if USA even dares to comes close, long range anti ship missiles will quickly show USA the error in their strategy.. China would be fighting inside their anti air umbrella, like s400 which can cover whole of Taiwan itself, along with its ship based anti air systems (whole navy worth), and the whole of the Chinese air force to also defend against any jets which do make it close enough to do, well, something. I dunno what usa can do except be like a fly that just annoys but can't really do any real damage or change the balance of power since usa will never attack Chinese mainland unless they want USA mainland to also be attacked. So usa can only try to pick off some ships or jets which will all be under China's A2AD umbrella and USA will have like a few jets vs China's whole military might which is just suicide. It will be like chinas total force concentration vs a few jets or few ships or few subs, which would just be usa throwing away those assets for no reason. China doesn't even need to do a physical blockade, they can just shoot rockets and missiles from the mainland itself to destroy any jets or ships trying to arrive or leave Taiwan Island.

[@SCMSD]

No obviously not. Especially without US support - but given how their vessels will need to get close to the mainland their ships won't be able to do very much without having to deal with a barrage of anti-ship missiles. The question we should be asking though is how much will the PRC have to pay to take the island from the ROC.

[@92HazelMocha]

If done right, mostly just the muntions cost. I ran a 1 for 1 simulation in DCS of a first strike (at 1/8th speed so my computer didn't explode) and approximately 90% of Taiwanese hardware was destroyed each go. 90% of ground assets mind you, it was 100% of their navy and airforce. After something like that, PRC heavy lift could move a few battalions to the island every hour. Obviously this is an over simplification; it assumes no response from the US, perfect intelligence from Bejing, and doesn't account for any Taiwanese attempted counter-attacks. That said they theoretically could seize control within a few days.

[@cadetrenew]

@@92HazelMocha You should use COMMAND Modern Operations for "serious" war game scenarios. DCS just doesn't have the sensor simulation and database that COMMAND has. Even then, take the results with a grain of salt. There are MANY factors to war.

[@Nimmermaer]

@@92HazelMocha It's very unlikely that a full-scale invasion could be done without casualties in the real World, as long as the defender is motivated. Defending is always easier than attacking, and there are lots of surprises to be prepared.

[@92HazelMocha]

​@@Nimmermaeroh of course not. But the scale of the casualties would be probably more akin to the US invasion of Iraq than Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[@92HazelMocha]

​@@cadetrenewI mean the problem is that there is no real hard data on modern Chinese sensors. If you want to wargame a set in the 90's or early 2000's, there's plenty of information, but the PLA has modernized multiple times since then. China has sensor platforms we don't know much about, especially in terms of capabilities, so in that regard, DCS is perfectly adequate. For the sake of simplicity I just largely ignored it for the purposes of a simulated first strike.

[@harrisonpeck130]

With ballistic missiles in DCS, does the Sim have the American THAAD system represented as well?

[@grimreapers]

Not yet.

[@M4m1de]

Stats and numbers are very interesting please keep doing them at the start !

[@peterchiang2551]

Taiwan actually have their own made supersonic anti-ship missile Hsiung Feng III and Hsiung Feng II. Chinese navy are within the range. Any way it's interesting to see how everything is going on. I'm looking forward to see the simulation with US help.

[@galaxymyt4834]

If you are from Taiwan your country needs EPIRUS microwave systems and cheap small stealth submarine like darpa armed with black shark torpedo and lot's of ATACMS and more of more javelin and with some jet power UAV that carry on missile and SM-3 missile it's God list

[@bruce4623]

I love all the boring bits! 👍

[@MattWaller04]

Why does Dark always sounds a combination of tired, sick, and hungover?

[@dexlab7539]

..your point being 😂

[@FleetDefenderRA5]

This was interesting and different. Total chaos. Thank you!

[@rexstorey7237]

I feel way more valued by just watching this!! Thanks Cap!

[@dcijams]

Good morning PAPA Smurf !!! I mean,,,,,,Super Cap........

[@bytesback.]

I'm fairly sure he's not blue

[@dcijams]

@@bytesback. But, He Is a Daddy, Now, congrates to you and ali.

[@-qsprey7881]

Why 052c? China has only built a small number of this type of ship. Even if you reduce the scale, the number you add in the simulation has exceeded the total number of ships of this type built in reality, which is 6 ships. . .

[@grimreapers]

I ran out of server memory, so couldn't fit the 052D in, so they were playing the 052D today.

[@Anarchy_420]

Yes! Follow up vid!👍 In the center Ford Class Carrier with F/A-18F Super Hornet's with AIM-120D's and Harpoons! On each side, LHD representing USS Blue Ridge with few Helicopters, other side America Class LHA with F-35B's 10 with LRASM 10 with AIM-260's! Surrounding them up front 1 Arleigh Burke with 2 Ticonderoga's on each side! On the flanks/sides 2 Arleigh Burke's 1 on each side! In the back same as front, 1 Arleigh Burke with 2 Ticonderoga's on each side creating a circle around "LCC-19"/LHD, Ford Class Carrier, and America Class LHA! Essentially representing The 7th Fleet however with Ford Class instead!🙏

[@salembeeman370]

We know China wins in this configuration. However, can they live with the losses and more important can they live with the Data the Western countries would gather from this?

[@DR-jq9bg]

Another great video, Cap!

[@RES915SQD]

US help would probably include one CSG, one ARG, AWACS, tankers, and possibly a B-1B strike w/ LRASMs from Guam.

[@liran547]

just one each? whats that gonna do, more likely the US gonna sand lots of spy airplanes to observe, and speak loudly in news conferences, thats all

[@galaxymyt4834]

My list is EPIRUS microwave system Darpa stealth submarine with black shark torpedo Javelin And ATACMS MGM140

[@galaxymyt4834]

And for stop ballistic missile SM-3

[@Aikibiker1]

For these simulations I would like to see you add in something to simulate the Taiwanese tactical SAM systems. Just a battery or two randomly placed on the eastern (northern) coast would change the dynamics of the battle since they would buy time for more Taiwanese aircraft to get in the air and work together instead of just get up launch missiles and die. There are a bunch of models to choose from you could make what you add different for each simulation to account for survivability.

[@dannyshaw4057]

Enjoyable video. Great work! I have a small question, you can see the curvature of the earth when following the ballistic missiles - is that a LOD type thing, or is the curvature actually modelled in DCS (or similar flight sims)? I ask because I have just resurrected an old very basic flight sim of mine, and wanted to do just that. It is early 2000s code, and because it is simple even updated to modern DirectX it runs at 200+ fps, but I tried to make the ground a sphere instead of flat, and the calculations are monstrous, struggling to render more than 5ps; I can't work out if I am doing something fundamentally wrong or if it is something that is genuinely difficult to implement economically, and thus avoided.

[@totalNERD-eo7wx]

I remember in a lot of their older Naval Battles they do say that the curvature is modeled mathematically, but the terrain itself is not visually modelled as such.

[@grimreapers]

Curve is not modelled, it's a graphical effect at high alt.

[@Jordan-du6fu]

Cap Taiwan was these really cool stealth corvettes that carry supersonic sea skimming anti ship missles. The ships are designed to fire their anti ship missiles and then run away. They are also designed to kill carriers. Could you see if CH could make them. Its called the Tuo Chiang-class corvette.

[@DinoBrothersStudio]

@user-mu5xt2tr4n 噸位差了快三倍 一個帶超音速反艦飛彈 一個帶次音速拆別還是很大的

[@DinoBrothersStudio]

@user-mu5xt2tr4n 就事論事 22型噸位就是只有200多噸

[@spencer7404]

The energy source of Taiwan can only last for seven days. After that, it goes almost all dark. Remember that.

[@kwdriver58]

and when DCS gets the OH-58D(I) Taiwan spec in game, rerun it again. :)

[@superflyguy4488]

You think a helicopter can make a difference to a mass ballistic missile and plane attack?

[@kwdriver58]

@@superflyguy4488 do you think jocularity can take place in commentary? If the Taiwanese are smart, they'll save them for the beach landings.

[@blademaster2390]

@@kwdriver58you think those helicopters wont get shot out of the sky by Chinese aircraft and boats?

[@galaxymyt4834]

​@@blademaster2390 why war you don't see Russia make your money China and be powerful

[@Flameancer]

never been this early to a Grim Reaper video. I feel valued

[@MrNakedweasel]

Taiwan does have quite formidable supersonic sea skimming ASMs, launched from a large number of missile boats and corvettes. It would not be so one-sided.

[@myke5696]

Unless Taiwan pre-emptively struck, more ASMs might not help at first. In the game scenario, China's navy did nothing after their initial missile launch. Of course saving them to target a followup invasion fleet could help.

[@mountainleopard5370]

Taiwan has no chance without US support

[@galaxymyt4834]

They needs EPIRUS microwave weapons and some cheap stealth submarine and more ATACMS and javelin and more MQ9C

[@ryabow]

I'd like to see this with someone sitting in as overlord. that way you could have ships sitting in port for 30 minutes or so, giving them time to start up and get underway. if they get hit while they are sitting ducks, then they don't get activated. this would also allow American assets in the area to arrive piecemeal. I feel like we'd have a good idea that this is coming, and would have a few destroyers or cruisers loitering in the area. it would take some time to get CSG 1 or 9 to the area, sure, but that doesn't mean 7th fleet wouldn't have *something* nearby to throw at the Chinese. currently, both CVNs 70 and 71 are in the Philippine sea, along with one of Japan's Hyuga class helicopter carrier/destroyers having them some war games. also, something else you could do to spice this up in the future, if you so wish, is to have one or both of Japan's JMSDF Izumo-class destroyer/carriers there, as they are being repurposed and refitted into actual carriers, and currently can hold up to 28 F-35Bs. as it is right now, those F35s are being operated by USMC pilots from the Japanese ships, as Japan is still working on acquiring more F-35s.

[@kennedy.nola_]

The PLA is extremely underscaled , and the Wikipedia numbers on both sides are completely wrong. I recommend using something like sinodefenseforum, as we’ve all heard that “Wikipedia isn’t a credible source”

[@WarLycan]

This scenario's results were pretty easy to predict. Humans should have tried to help the underdog. Thanks for the preview though. Always love Grim Reapers vids.

[@kenhelmers2603]

I always watch the briefings :)

[@dexlab7539]

Me too! Love the briefings 😊

[@biochemwang2421]

In reality, I do not think a major air battle will be fought between mainland China and Taiwan because all air fields on Taiwan will be swept in the first hour and constantly revisited by drones all the time. In other words, very few Taiwan jet fighters will be able to be up in the air.

[@MB-mr4ek]

Great vid again guys. What's the mod for taxpayer costs?

[@nicolamastascusa8173]

The AWAC at 21:34 id not s copy of the Russian A-50, it simply looks like it because it uses the il-76 airframe. The Russian A-50 has a rotating radome, whereas the Chinese KJ-2000 has 3 fixed AESA radars, arguably making it far superior to the A-50, and similar to it's replacement, the A-100, which has yet to enter service.

[@宏-v4r]

可惜没有kj500 甚至用y20的kj700，现在kj500大约有30+的数量

[@nicolamastascusa8173]

确实感觉用KJ500更真实。KJ700是什么啊？空警运20以后肯定有，但是现在连个原型机的照片都没有。@@宏-v4r

[@TheHitbear]

Cap, Admiral corner has a Spruance class mod. That is a Kidd class. Kidd was built for Iran pre revolution based on the Spruance but optimized differently. but weren't completed before the regieme changed. They were sold to Taiwan

[@grimreapers]

I tried it but missiles refused to work for me.

[@TheHitbear]

@@grimreapers - Maybe try the Bainbridge then? The issue is the OHP class is a single launcher, the Spruance/Kidd class has twin launchers. Hence the throw weight of the Kidd fleet would be off by half when you use the OHP class as a substitute. Bainbridge and early Tico class had the twin arm SM2 launchers. However, when you think of it, the PRC would swarm them either way. The only difference would be the amount of missiles intercepted before inevitably getting sunk....Hence, moot point.

[@palkokity8235]

Wow. That would be such a costly victory no matter who won. ...but impractical because, as other have stated, everyone would notice China organizing for the assult.

[@fenix2k1]

I think if Taiwan knew the US weren't going to help they would have to attack first when they start seeing the Chinese build up (Hit before you get hit). Could you run that scenario?

[@宏-v4r]

但是执行力存在差距，中国的集结其实很隐蔽

[@emmata98]

12:30 so I guess some people would say all the carrier groups, so 11 big ones^^

[@ojaspatki772]

Actually interesting how china has upped its game. (If all that stuff works irl). Would be interesting to see respective theatre commands go against: 1] Japanese and South Koreans 2] Indians Coz it looks like those are the only countries that could stand up to this stuff.

[@DarkAgeTM]

Cap, you're never wasting our time. Thank you.

[@adampodlewski5140]

The West Taiwan should be reunited with the Motherland.

[@NightshadeX85]

The J-20 sucked up so many AIM-120s.

[@hughmungus2760]

yeah even a handful of moderately decent 5th gens would completely throw off a battle with mostly 4th gens.

[@dainperrault585]

Loving these videos! Did my garage in my new house very similar to what you’re doing! Everyone who comes over absolutely loves it and my wife who was originally not thrilled I spent the money on it loves it too! Great work space for me. Can’t wait to see more!

[@ForbiddenFruitGaming]

Taiwan updated all of its F16s to Block 70s in the past 2 years. Also a little bit of history, while America does recognize the One China Policy, America does not specify which China is the representative (ROC or PRC). So it is an ambiguous answer to basically obligate itself to defend democratic Taiwan as well as refusing Communist China from imposing its government on Taiwan. Pretty much on all accounts, Taiwan operates as an independent nation with its own government, elections, military, and way of life.

[@GöranÅgren]

Not a realistic video, it was just an airfight, why no artillery from taiwan, and tanks and a lot of other weapons, and to take taiwan you must go with boats!!! to really conquer them. But i supose you just want to show the airforce fight. fun but not good enough Buuuh!!!

[@lifetrees1]

In reality, Taiwan has over 6000 surface to air missiles mostly on mobile launchers as well as over 1200 anti-ship missiles (many supersonic) currently using NATO’s LINK-16 system (U.S can aim for Taiwan)

[@NWRefund]

Shouldn't the Chinese missiles be filled with water?

[@team3am149]

Your brain must be filled with water to believe the genius reporting that solid-propellant rockets could somehow be filled with water.

[@NWRefund]

@@team3am149 I feel like that was unnecessarily insulting. I was making a joke about the news stories from last month. Why did you respond this way? Was it to deliberately belittle me?

[@team3am149]

@@NWRefund Making a joke? You posted the same thing across multiple videos, I hardly think you were trying to make a joke. Don’t complain about being belittled on the internet if you’re going to do the same thing. The victim complex is strong with this one.

[@NWRefund]

@@team3am149 Yeah, God forbid I make the same joke multiple times. My bad. I should expect to run into the same people on the internet over and over, since it's so small.

[@NWRefund]

@@team3am149 Thank you for spending some of your own personal time pointing out the errors of my ways to me. I'll be careful about jokes in the future so that I do not draw such ire from folks in the comments section. I didn't realize that bad jokes deserved such a strong rebuke, but you learn something new every day!

[@jaime683]

Using Perry class to aim Kidd class is not fair. The Perry’s have one single rail missile launcher and one CIWs, where the Kidds have two dual rail launchers two ciws, and better radar and comms.

[@mariomezquita3492]

Awesome vid, cap. Might I request next time this scenario is run, how about instead of the US lending Taiwan assistance, it's Japan? They've signed cooperation agreements of late, and it wouldn't be out of the realm of the impossible to have Japanese send a fleet with one of the Izumo class 'helicopter destroyers' with F-35s, as well as a few of their Aegis capable destroyers. That should considerably boost the Taiwanese forces in a scenario like this one. :)

[@MeliokFR]

I'm always amazed by your research into the systems used. Could you explain a bit how you're gathering this data ? ( e.g. : websites where we can find these informations )

[@grimreapers]

It's literally copy and pasted from the relevant wiki pages and added with a bit of my own knowledge.

[@Краснаяармиясамаясильная-б9ы]

ncis guy up in here@@grimreapers

[@MrEtherguy]

NCIS is looking into that. Just a joke, as is the investigation into Cap. Everything simulated is open sourced with minor tweaks for the simulation to work as intended.

[@ck12ms]

Cap would it be possible to incorparate the Olympus mod when running wargames? Like for instance 2 of your guys getting a set number of resources controlling 2 different sides(or just one guy on one side if 2 isn´t possible?), and then the humans are distributed as you see fit to the different sides? It would certainly make the games more dynamic and interesting with a human mind making the decisions instead of the AI with it´s limitations. Thanks as always for the content!

[@grimreapers]

Problem we've got is that everyone wants to fly. No one wants to spend their hard-earned free time looking at the olympus screen :(

[@ck12ms]

@@grimreapers Ahh i see what you´re saying. A campaign with similiar structure would perhaps be a better idea? Those are fairly common and the guys seem to enjoy doing those? Anyways you know best what´s possible and what´s not. I was just impressed by the technical possibilities and thought i´d ask :) Thanks Cap!

[@jeremyjackson8196]

So all taiwan would do is take a defensive posture and not try to go offensive before china launches more?

[@anthonyb5279]

Taiwans missile defense is more robust than that by a lot. The idea that they need to hold on till the US shows up is stupid, we are there now and we are always there. There are US troops stationed on the island right now. Bla bla bla Official this and that ... trust me they are there. If you look at the positions of the US fleets there are 3 Carrier groups on the far side of Taiwan right now. We never leave Taiwan uncovered this would never happen.

[@tinfoilsays]

Great video, just a few critiques. I think parts of your analysis were off based on your premise. Chinese bombers wasted payloads on ships that were already blown up. Realistically, with both bombers and ships there, one would have targeted the ships and the other the airfields to prevent a full scrambling of taiwanese aircraft. The other major point is that you said China got a bloody nose from losing so many aircraft, however you aren't considering that you intentionally prevented them from retreating to re-arm and forced them to fight to the death. I understand this was due to the limited system resources, however you should be upfront that it's a forced outcome. Otherwise the J20s and others would have been unloading their missiles en masse then turning around to re-arm and come back out, and would have suffered significantly fewer losses.

[@strambino1]

Send 7th fleet as help for Taiwan, after the first strike does it’s damage.

[@清德賴-v7q]

You think you are here to "aid". And we Chinese think. You are here to improve our results.

[@清德賴-v7q]

China's goals. From beginning to end. They are all people. instead of dog

[@blbelt2001]

so Cap, I believe the US Navy's official policy is to keep at least one US Naval vessel in port in Taiwan at all times. Plus they keep at least one carrier group in east Asia at all times as a reaction force. I would say that if an attack of this magnitude was coming, intelligence would have some idea and they would at least forward deploy the carrier group to the east of Taiwan, away from the mainland.

[@liran547]

the US policy is that USA does not regonize and not surport Taiwan indenpendence, and no US military in Taiwan. Check the US state department's webpage,. they did that for the last 70 years since the USA and PRC established relations, that was the main condition for the US-China relation to start with.

[@ivorharden]

Im liking the screenshots of Wikipedia. Hopefully no one will ask further questions about how you get your information. 🤭🤷

[@grimreapers]

Agreed

[@Marcogoodie]

Just a quick question, why does china's doctrine state that it doesn't use SAMs?

[@EvolvedTactical]

Cap: "How much of America do you want to send?" Me, a Valued Viewer: "Yes."

[@matsv201]

It would make sense to me that thaiwan would fight only over there own landmass. This way chinese airforce either would need to stand back or fly over the man pad regarless a huge dissadvantage. Also worth saying. Japan and korea does exist. Also india. They all have rather large airforces. They have large invested intrest in thaiwan and would probobly not juet let them fall. Japanese airforce is getting really potent. With a large number of F15, and a decent number of F2 and F35, they could probobly put up a really dangerus fight. I can think of a formation of F35 escorted by F15 would be pretty dangerus to chinese. Sure, its not a F22... but not far of. Also worth saying that japan is develop there own fith gen fighter, its basically a clone of XF23... that might be very dangerus

[@hughmungus2760]

india is in no shape to intervene in the taiwan straits. Even if it starts something along the himalayas the PLA western theatre command will deal with that. Japan is unlikely to throw the handful of F35s it has at china at first notice, nor would it really want to get involved in the opening salvo because thats just asking for retaliation from chinese missiles that would otherwise be reserved for taiwan. Japans domestic 5th gen is nowhere in sight. Might as well give china H20 stealth bombers if you're giving japan future jets that don't exist yet.

[@angelgil-onken3030]

taiwan and china taking notes watching this

[@宏-v4r]

仅作为娱乐

[@Liujun-mt6qu]

中国有超巨型计算机，会做比这详细的多的多的模拟，也真实的多的多，所以没人会做笔记

[@yangzhang9716]

looking for entertaining only

[@galaxymyt4834]

​@@宏-v4r no war

[@galaxymyt4834]

​@@Liujun-mt6qu no to war

[@deanzaZZR]

I must have missed the explanation but why didn't the PLAN move across the Strait to provide SAM support once the ROC navy got wrecked?

[@grimreapers]

This was really just supposed to be the initial strike to gain air superiority. I guess the actual invasion would be the next stage.

[@deanzaZZR]

@@grimreapers Surface ships play a role in achieving air superiority, no?

[@terencexd8477]

one error, J20 is like an assassin sniper. It should not be a the frontline. Also they model of j20 used is model from 2020, j20 have major upgrade

[@anggisuwandi2404]

although I know that this is just scripted battle, but when Cap said "there's no chance" I felt somewhat nostalgic back in 2022, yknow that real world happen when everyone said the exact same thing with Russia lol

[@ZweiZwolf]

China's economy and industrial manufacturing capacity is several times larger than Russia's.

[@anggisuwandi2404]

​@@ZweiZwolfI mean c'mon, propagandist never tell a true story and never will even democracies countries like us despite doing their best hiding some stuff there's always a leak somewhere but when talking about "closed" propagandist countries I put my doubt there

[@ZweiZwolf]

@@anggisuwandi2404 Why would you doubt China having a significantly larger industrial base than Russia? China has roughly 10x the population and broad recognition as "the factory of the world", so it's odd to imagine that Russia could possibly be anywhere close. Especially as the Russian economy is more about energy and food sales, which command lower value than Chinese intermediate and manufactured goods.

[@OzIan1983]

作者故意Debuff了中国军队的能力，而且从空战开始剧情就变得非常离谱。F-16不可能在有效距离发现J-20并锁定，更不可能发射AIM-120C。另外，海军055 052D在海战后就被抹去了，这不符合事实

[@刘火华]

蛮夷是这样的，“承认别人，认清差距”对我们来说只是挂在嘴上的一句话，对他们来说是遥不可及的认知高度，鲁迅笔下的愚民在他们那里到处都是

[@jamesycj1]

现实中f16根本不可能起飞就被消灭在地面上了

[@yangzhang9716]

@user-xt1ku8vp5p額所以他的uploading被口誅筆伐是必然