Could the Ukraine Invasion end with a puppet government? | With Bilahari Kausikan

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[@thedamnhappygurl]

Great video, really appreciate that a follow up video was produced as we are now rather detached from this cruel war due to distance. Reminded once again of the SG UN representative speech. Sending love and good prayers to all of ukraine, and the rest of the innocent.

[@chrislee4229]

Wise man..👨🏼‍🦳 Thanks mothership for the idea of interviewing someone who is able to give such insightful analysis..💪🏼💪🏼. Gd contents

[@wlim1260]

In case anyone doubts Mr Kausikan's commitment to brute power and military might, this is Mr Kausikan in his own words from his article "The Arena" published in Foreign Affairs March/April 2021: "But soft power, which Obama had in abundance, is inadequate without the exercise of hard power-and Obama had little stomach for that. In 2012, his administration brokered a deal between Beijing and Manila regarding Scarborough Shoal, in the South China Sea. When China reneged on the terms of the deal by refusing to remove its ships from the disputed area, Washington did nothing. In 2015, Xi promised Obama that China would not militarize the South China Sea. But when Beijing did so by deploying naval and coast-guard assets to intimidate ASEAN claimant states in 2016, the United States again did nothing. Obama’s failure several years before, in 2013, to enforce a redline on Syria’s use of chemical weapons had undermined the credibility of U.S. power-and China took notice. U.S. President Donald Trump’s rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on assuming office in 2017 was a slap in the face to U.S. friends and allies. But not everything he did was necessarily wrong. However incoherently and crudely, Trump seemed to instinctively understand the importance of demonstrating hard power. When he bombed Syria in 2017 while at dinner with Xi, he did much to restore the credibility of American might by showing his willingness to use force. Trump also explicitly rejected China’s claims in the South China Sea and empowered the U.S. Seventh Fleet to conduct freedom-of-navigation operations to challenge them. Freedom of navigation is a right, and other countries do not need China’s permission to exercise it. By contrast, during Obama’s second term, the Pentagon and the National Security Council sparred loudly over the wisdom of such operations, undermining their intended effect." Let me repeat his view: bombing of Syria by the US was acceptable and good. So let's be clear: the use of brute force by our ally is good, the use of brute force by a non ally is bad. That's real politik. Not morals. Not law. It's about getting the biggest baddest mafia boss on your side. And you know what, that's fair. As a small in region surrounded by much bigger neighbours, we want the biggest, baddest mafia boss protection racket protecting US. Let's just be clear eyed that that is what it is about. Morality and law can go hang.

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

Nope, that's not his view, and Trump's bombing in Syria requires context - if you are talking about restoring American's strength and deterrence capabilities, the bombing in Syria did its job ("good" in terms of achieving that objective, not in the moral sense) in restoring America's projection of military might and deterrence capabilities. He didn't say it was "morally and ethically acceptable and good". Don't put words in his mouth.

[@StarrySunnie]

This is truly REMARKABLE interview from Mr. Bilahari Kausikan 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾🙏🏽🙇🏻‍♀️ My heart and prayers go out to Ukrainians. It is heart-wrenching to witness this devastating event.

[@mfarabi53]

Great video from a former ambassador. Thank you. 😀

[@freddy_freeman]

Great insight as to where we are & where we stand.

[@ptan4120]

With due respect, Mr Kausikan, not all Singaporeans who opposed Singapore's sanction on Russia felt that we are a small country and therefore we should have kept quiet. For me personally, who has had deep interests over these matters, felt that before the war, the West collectively, lacked the leadership especially the Biden adminstration, to deal with Putin effectively or took him seriously. Putin had tried very hard communicating with West.

[@wlim1260]

I agree with Bilahari. But pity we don't talk about how the UK has violated international law by keeping the Chagos Islands. The ICJ ruled that the UK is in violation of international law, it has ruled that the UK has to allow the native Chagossians to return to their homes (the UK forcibly removed the Chagossians), it has ruled that the UK has to end its UNLAWFUL OCCUPATION and return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The UN General Assembly has voted by a large majority that the UK is to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. SINGAPORE SHAMEFULLY ABSTAINED FROM VOTING. Perhaps we believe that this theft of land was a private matter between the UK and Mauritius to be resolved quietly between them. Despite the fact that the UK is vastly larger in size and power than Mauritius. Despite the fact that the UK has leased the largest of the islands to the US to maintain its naval base there in return for the US wiping out debt owed by the UK to it. Yes, I am sure that private negotiations will work. NOT!!! The ruling and General Assembly vote were 5 years ago and still the UK vehemently refuses to comply with international law. TO DATE THE UK STILL DENIES THE RIGHT OF THE CHAGOSSIANS TO RETURN, IT STILL DENIES THE RIGHT OF MAURITIUS TO ITS LAND. Perhaps Mr Kausikan can explain why Singapore did not stand up for small nations then. Perhaps Mr Kausikan can also explain why Singapore shamefully voted to support the US illegal invasion of Iraq despite the fact that there were no and never were weapons of mass destruction there despite our apparent belief in the importance of international law and supporting small countries. After all, if we believed that dictators should be removed by force, let's remember that many in the West call Singapore a dictatorship. Or are we willing to see the US invade us or any of the other countries in the region that it calls authoritarian states? Oh, it's good that the young support Ukraine's position. But let's make sure they learn the right lesson from this. The TRUE lesson to be learnt is the force and logic of real politik. Let's not delude them about "moral" superiority or "law" shall we? We rely on the US for arms and its security umbrella. That's why we align ourselves with it come what may. It's pure selfish self-interest of siding with the mighty. Because in this world the reality is that might makes right. So we stick like glue to the US and its actions. Not because of any "moral" beliefs. But I do very much love that Mr Kausikan has inadvertently fully endorsed the rationale of Iran and North Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons. Turns out they were right all along. Woo hoo!! By force of logic, let us do so too, and start a nuclear arms race in South East Asia, especially with our neighbours, Malaysia and Indonesia. That's evidently the best way to maintain our security. In his understanding of the brutal hard truth that there is no truth other than brute power, Mr Kausikan is indeed a wise man.

[@WeirenLoh]

Great insight. Thank you

[@noproblematallmate]

I feel its just very basic facts. Not much learnt.

[@nasoo4188]

@@noproblematallmate You sounded wise, can you make a video to explain it? I wish to learn from you.

[@socketheadscrew707]

@@noproblematallmate basic facts or not, it really depends on the questions prepared for the interviewee and the video editing. At least Mr Kausikan did brought on the interesting point about the Budapest Memorandum, it has definitely reinforced the idea of not giving up nuclear weapons as a mean of deterrent for smaller countries.

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

@@noproblematallmate Wow! Spoken like a true geopolitical analyst! Bilahari is a highly sought after speaker and thinker on geopolitics…appearing on CNBC and Bloomberg forum…who the f*** are you?🤪

[@noproblematallmate]

@@hiroyukishinichi9873 I don't really get myself bias by identifying who the speaker is. I merely judge on the content I hear. Its all basic stuff... no detailed insights at all. Learn to drop your bias and you will experience things differently

[@Penaming]

You think he dare to talk like that about US invasions on small sovereign countries? As for the nuclear arsenal, Ukraine can't keep them as much as Singapore couldn't keep Christmas Island, the west already made that decision when USSR disintegrated. End of the day, between Russia and NATO, Singapore's position is clear as day, already carved in stone, unless you want USA to sanction Singapore and utterly crush our global financial center and trading nation status?

[@StarrySunnie]

Thanks

[@michaellee3314]

I want to ask him if the Malaysian started to deploy artery pieces and missiles in Johor, bringing its tanks brigades down from the north, what will Singapore do? Sit tight? Cannot do anything because Malaysia is a sovereign country so cannot attack her?

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

Obtuse comparison, Ukraine didn't deploy weapons near Russian borders; even so, yes, sovereign countries can make decisions about who they align with (NATO/ EU). If Malaysia does that, they are entitled to do so, it's aggressive and acrimonious, but where they want to place their missiles is none of Singapore's business. War is on only when they start firing at us. Stop trolling with such obtuse strawman/ comparison

[@michaellee3314]

@@hiroyukishinichi9873 Wake will you? Not now of course. When she became NATO member, what will prevent NATO from deploying forces? Russia is not going to wait till then. It will be too late. Got it?

[@johnny-ih5es]

Being in the list of unfriendly countries, the tiny island nation may not get invited to discover the trade opportunities of the future Arctic maritime route.

[@MattKucia]

You mean Canadian route? ;) May or may not, too much guessing here.

[@marktan8074]

Fortunately the Artic does not belong to Russia. Countries like Canada, Denmark, US, Norway has a say in it too.

[@ang1852]

The arctic maritime route is the future cause of global warming. They breakup the ice when the ships sail through, and polar bears will go hungry. Polar bears are growing thinner these days. plus it is not in our interest to have more global warming on earth, so we do not want to go that route.

[@libra15tiger15]

He probably has got some of it right but be warned that his analysis always comes from the negative, pessimistic and fearful side of things. Sometimes I come across his other analysis on other issues. As the star wars says, fear and anger is the path to the dark side. Be careful of what you believe. Or maybe because I watch too much Star Wars hopefully.

[@Tekhelet75]

Try to be objective, and you will learn something.

[@dl5066]

He has a very colonial mindset that is really outdated for the current world order.

[@libra15tiger15]

Just that my observation sees that his comments usually does not offer any way forward nor any solutions. Instead its quite negative, just be cautious if you are reading too much into his words might fail to see the opportunities available generally. Just a word of caution.

[@woontew9157]

What do you mean by “colonial mindset”? Kindly elaborate?

[@OlgaBylova]

(Honestly curious) I'm wondering how some of these experts are so sure of themselves when they say "This hasn't gone according to Putin's plan" or "He didn't anticipate the harsh reaction from the West". I'd argue that: a. None of us know what Putin's plan was/is (pretty sure that information is classified) or how quickly he planned to overtake Ukraine (considering he could have used artillery and air force to make this MUCH quicker, albeit deadlier, and he hasn't done so kinda shows his intention wasn't necessarily a quick victory - just food for thought) AND b. Considering the last bout of sanctions on Russia and the way sanctions have been imposed on other countries in the past, I very much think he would have been foolish and naive to think there wouldn't be harsh retaliation from the West. And he may be a lot of things, but stupid and naive aren't those things.

[@Unteroffizier]

SO big country, one of the most powerful military, still cannot win after 1 month. makes me giggle.

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

Errrr…don’t know why he is so sure of himself? Bilahari is a highly sought after speaker and thinker on geopolitics…appearing on CNBC and Bloomberg forum (plus he actually is our ambassador at large, and actually was the Singapore’s ambassador to RUSSIA!)…who the f*** are you?🤪

[@OlgaBylova]

@@hiroyukishinichi9873 That doesn't answer my question at all....and you're just being antagonistic...I was polite in asking my question....no matter his credentials, he probably doesn't have Putin's plan in hand....I'm not being disrespectful, unlike you. I believe he is a knowledge base that should be heard, just asking some questions...maybe you should take a lesson from him also as to how to have a polite discussion.

[@OlgaBylova]

@@Unteroffizier ...Did you even read what I wrote before commenting? He's using a small portion of his military, and not even using artillery, and the air force is barely noticeable - not because he doesn't have the resources, this was his choice....so maybe we need to pay attention to that.

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

@@OlgaBylova nah…your very first paragraph was nullified and already refuted by actual observations happening this very moment: “Hasn’t gone according to plan” - you blind? The fact that Zelensky is still in power and holding the fort (capital Kyiv is still holding up) is patent evidence that Putin’s plan to invade and go straight for the heart (capital) hasn’t been accomplished (ie. not according to plan). Again, you blind? Need to ask meh? “He didn’t expect harsh reactions” - again, you blind? Annexation of Crimea did not even block Russia from SWIFT banking system. This time round it did. Even neutral states like Switzerland and Sweden imposed sanctions. Singapore as well. Unprecedented. He expected that? So erhm…yah, you asked politely, but stupid questions.

[@lama_lama888]

Putler is not going to stop until he is stopped. 💙💛

[@ang1852]

He said Ukraine will be sacrificed. I can do fortune telling too, just flip a coin. He called out Ah Bengs and Ah Lians in this vid.

[@wf645]

Like it or not, Ukraine is already sacrificed ... its worst off than before ... and unlikely the West will help in redevelopment and in comes China ... and here were go again the demonizing of China ...

[@ang1852]

​@@wf645 The opposite is more likely. If Ukraine is not eaten by Russia after this war, the neighbouring countries in EU will get most of the requests rebuilding Ukraine. because they help the Ukrainian refugees alot. China and India, was on record abstaining from UN resolution condemning the invasion. Did you see the money EU is pledging to Ukraine ? It is a strategic place that EU is definitely going to hold. That land is ancient, mongolian armies , WWII , ancient wars were fought there. As SG was reduced to third world country in WWII, we remember.

[@wf645]

@@ang1852 Not in Russia's interest to take whole of Ukraine. Likely the will annex the East Ukraine where the mines and agriculture is richer and leave West Ukraine. Frankly UN is a JOKE, since its inception ... errr assuming EU "helps" Ukraine to rebuild. What do they have to offer, when the better parts of Eastern Ukraine are being annexed. EU does not do anything for free. There are reasons why Poland though may be in EU but is applicable to use Euro. Assuming if IMF loan to Ukraine, but it often comes with conditions and Ukraine will be in huge debt for years to come ... that is the reality of Ukraine.

[@ang1852]

@@wf645 Are you from Russia ?? Vitali Klitschko and Wladimir Klitschko just said in an article that Russia will not stop at Ukraine , if the russians can get away with it. Do you think people believe you or do people believe men who are actually in the war zone ?

[@SprinkleofWilly]

Idk why my uncle keep saying America made Putin to start this war. He keep sending me WhatsApp videos 🙄

[@thedamnhappygurl]

I feel you! unfortunately, this applies to my dad as well. the older generation watches heavily misinformed videos on fb, whatsapp and etc. I try to engage with my dad in open discussions about such events as over time, they can really become very extreme. It takes extreme patience and time though so good luck to both you and me! But its great that our generation lives in the internet era and we have accessibility to different sources of information.

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

Because they already stuck in the web of the China propaganda online machine, and China’s online army (their official Foreign Affair Ministry might not outrightly support, but online army can do so covertly) has been pushing a disinformation campaign 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@dharma3689]

We will all have differing views. The Gen Z included. The Best way to understand this is to read up about history, not read up news feeds. Read up both sides of the story, not read what the algorhythm have given us. Sometimes, information and disinformation is synonymous. With a better source of materials, form your own opinion and engage an open discussion. Keep an open mind. What's important too is that we focus on our own current policies and issues first before having opinions about other countries. :D

[@angyuexiangaaron]

Because he’s not entirely wrong. NATO eastward expansion is a mistake that made everything out of control and NATO doesn’t give a shit about Ukraine. The idea of western democracy hegemony that has sparked countless of war is the poison. The US has much to lose as well (more than it has to gain) from this never ending war. Everybody is in a lose-lose situation. I do not support the war but I despise the western countries’ minimal effort to avoid this war.

[@Penaming]

Because uncles know to tune in to both channels to get to the truth, but nowadays most strawberries all in on one overbearing western-narrative channel only. Normal lah, inexperienced is always easier to be cheated, pretty sure your uncle also tio cheated before when young like you.

[@oterenceo]

The best case scenario is 2 Ukraines. East Ukraine mired in poverty and unrest and under the talons of the Russians and Putin and West Ukraine, prosperous but weary and worried about their neighbors. A sad case scenarios, but nonetheless better than Kiev getting annexed as predicted by Bilahari.

[@MattKucia]

Best case is federal Russia collapses and becomes collection of smaller countries. China can be the ultimate winner here.

[@ang1852]

The best case scenario is the Russian army's defeat, the return of all land stolen from Ukraine, Georgia. China is using the same tactics of shifting the border markers in countries with poorly guarded borders.

[@osmanzng8065]

How many still think he's utterly useless in any other Ministry except the MFA?

[@dl5066]

he's useless even at MFA

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

@@dl5066 Errrr…useless? He is a highly sought after speaker and thinker on geopolitics…appearing on CNBC and Bloomberg forum (plus he actually is our ambassador at large, and actually was the Singapore’s ambassador to RUSSIA!)…who the f*** are you?🤪

[@two_sillys_trap]

Where got useless? He's keeping our USA, 5 eyes masters happy thinking Singapore is firmly behind them. Arboh you want USA to turn ASEAN into the middle east?

[@johnny-ih5es]

Kausikan does not know when or how to shut his gap.

[@marktan8074]

Neither do you. He however was interviewed by MS and sought for his opinion.

[@dl5066]

Honestly pls stop getting this guy Bilahari Kausikan on your page, he's arrogant and has a very colonial and ignorant view of the world.

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

Errrr…he is a highly sought after speaker and thinker on geopolitics…appearing on CNBC and Bloomberg forum (plus he actually is our ambassador at large, and actually was the Singapore’s ambassador to RUSSIA!)…who the f*** are you?🤪

[@dl5066]

@@hiroyukishinichi9873 I'm an average singaporean lol. And who the f*** are you - someone with a random japanese name?

[@hiroyukishinichi9873]

I’m so sad…I’m not just a random Japanese-named guy…I’m your mother!🤣 that’s why your name is Daisuki Lanjiao (D L)🤪🤪🤪

[@ianchong3996]

Nope! I beg to differ. Shoots straight.