Was Sauron in trouble after Pelennor Fields?

In this video, we look at Sauron's military situation after the Battle of Pelennor Fields and the other battles in the War of the Ring, and see whether he was truly in any danger of losing.
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[@foglet1]

Everyone asks what Sauron but never how Sauron ):

[@swyjix]

I think they were mostly concerned for a while there with “Where Sauron”

[@warrengouldthorpe5091]

Or why is Sauron

[@titanscerw]

Sincerely screw Sauron :)

[@cavetroll666]

thanks for the video cheers from Forochel (Canada)

[@blueshit199]

lol, Sauron watching Saruman make the mistake of emptying Isengard and then suffering a grave defeat, and just going "let's do that too" to the Witch-King

[@hedinsee6830]

Thing is, there was nothing grave about it for Sauron. Sauron lost one Morgul army. Out of the *vast* reserves of Mordor, Rhun, Khand, Harad, the East... The Morannon garrison at Udun alone was probably of a similar size in the normal circumstances. And in exchange he all but exhausted the strength of Gondor and Rohan. Aragorn could barely master 5 or 6 thousand for the battle of Morannon afterwards. Frankly, it was almost a strategic success for Sauron. The only practical loss he sustained was the Witch-king who was hardly irreplaceable in any case.

[@blueshit199]

@@hedinsee6830 yeah, I watched the video after writing that comment, still, not leaving any rear guard seems to be a consistent tactical/strategic mistake these bad guys make, even after 3000 years of planning

[@shiroamakusa8075]

It's not like Gondor had any means to take Minas Morgul, even one defended with a skeleton crew.

[@alanpennie8013]

​@@shiroamakusa8075 It was defended by a miasma of insanity, which spared Sauron the need to station any soldiers there.

[@tiltskillet7085]

Great video! It's about time someone exposed those dang Free Peoples for the bullies they were, always picking on poor Sauron. Can't believe they kept on beating up on him when he was ready to surrender. Thanks for bringing this to the attention of the public, DG! Sincerely, - _Sauron's Mom_

[@jackolantern147]

I wonder. Was Saurons army stronger in the 3rd age than it was in the 2nd? With the Uruk abd Olog hai being perfected, new fortresses such as Dol Guldur, Cirith Ungol, and the towers of teeth, tons more manish allies, new puppets like Saruman and the Balrog, and even the Nazgul. Could Sauron have won the war of the Last Aliance if he had the forces he has in the war of the ring?

[@TheGreatUnwashedThing]

Depends what part of the 2nd Age I think - at the time of the War of the Elves and Sauron? No, Sauron was massively stronger then than he would be at any point in the Third Age. After that though it gets more grey - I'd certainly say that Sauron was stronger in the War of the Ring than during the War of the Last Alliance but that was largely because he only had a century to rebuild his forces after escaping Numenor. The real change was of course that the Free Peoples had become much weaker - the Elves had departed Middle Earth in huge numbers, the dwarfs had lost basically all of their great holds except the Lonely Mountain, Arnor was gone, and Gondor was much weaker than in the late 2nd age. In that respect, the Witch-King, Balrog, Easterlings, Haradrim, and dragons all did a huge amount of good work for Sauron over the course of the Third Age.

[@Maegorthecrueltargaryen]

The balrog was not his puppet just a happy accident that benefited him in the long run

[@dinmavric5504]

@@TheGreatUnwashedThing He clearly wasn't that strong either at the time of the War of the Elves, nor when at the battle of the Last Alliance, in the first instance because Minastir sends a fleet and that squashes his troops and he barely escapes with his life. I think his strength is more or less the same at either period... but the Numenoreans beat him at his own game, Sauron for all that he did still wasn't as big of a tyrant as Pharazon was.

[@ciaranrocks9787]

​@@dinmavric5504You need to remember that Pharazon was at his worst under the direct control of Sauron

[@TotalWarGamer-hb4kd]

Sauron was undoubtedly stronger at the end of the third age. In the second age Sauron was making the rings of power and the one ring. He slowly build his evil empire without anyone knowing until he put the one ring which was in 1200 of the second age. Then war of the elves and Sauron began. He absolutely would have won and conquered a lot of middle earth. But he lost because of the the Mighty superpower called Numéenor and Sauron was crushed. Sauron was pisssed. So he focused on the numénorians. But the Nuémorians force was so great he couldn't't beat them military. so he used deception and Númenor drown. Then the last alliances created to defeat Sauron once and for all. My point is Sauron didn't have a lot of time in the second age compared in the third age bc almost everyone believed he was gone and it's been almost 3000 years ! he hid himself very well all while indirectly weakening his ennemies ( ex : fall of arnor, failed invasions of Gondor) The second question with the forces he had of the third age vs the last alliance : possibly. They would have been evenly matched but I have to point out three things: the elves were far more numerous in numbers , orcs are weaker than men and elves and the dwarves of kazoo dum ( Moria also were part of the alliance) so in my opinion the alliance would still have won.

[@mcintma2]

Anyone here who has not played the War of the Ring boardgame, needs to try it. Simulates alot of this very well, such as Sauron casualties being returned to his pool vs. Free Peoples battle losses being permanent (out of the game).

[@untitled568]

He definitely was not.. Delayed, yes, but he could have kept attacking for a century if it meant Free Peoples would be destroyed..

[@tba113]

Sauron to his new chief Orc general, following the defeat at Pelennor Fields: "That's the spirit, Uglak! If nothing else works, then a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through!"

[@АнтонОрлов-я1ъ]

I think there is a lot of unknown variables. Our only source about Sauron's power is Denethor, who is getting information directly from Sauron himself and is in despair. I am not sure how much additional information Gandalf had, but it seems he also was mostly reciting Denethor. One thing to consider is that humans (and presumably Orcs as well) generally do not want to die. We do not know exactly how loyal to Sauron and ready to die in this war of attrition were most of his troops. According to the situation at the Black Gates, some were fanatics ready to fight to the death, but most tried to flee or surrender. It seems that some orcs were trying to rebel or desert even before Sauron was defeated. So after a series of such defeats there may be mass rebellions, desertions and so on across Sauron's empire. I doubt those rebels were able to defeat Sauron from within, but at least for some time Sauron's forces may be busy dealing with those rebellions. Another thing to consider that both king Theoden and steward Denethor died during the battle of Pelennor Fields. Gondor's authority was significantly weakened, Eomer and Imrahil might reasonably declare their feudal duties fulfilled and retreat back into their realms. Thus the immediate attack towards the Black Gates was necessary not only to distract Sauron (although that, of course, was important), but also to consolidate the forces of the West under Aragorn's banner. Waiting beyond the Anduin was not an option because without strong unified leadership the forces of the West would become weaker while Sauron would regain his forces.

[@huntclanhunt9697]

Here's the biggest question: If the army sent against Minas Tirith wasn't his main force, then what was he holding his main force back for? Obviously at the black gate he had a huge host compared to the men of the west, but Aragorn didn't exactly have a huge force there. Both Gondor and Rohan suffered catastrophic casualties at pelinor. So Mordor could very well have been bluffing, but if it wasn't... What was he holding his force back for? The Grey Havens? They were leaving on their own already. Rivendel? Not exactly a massive army to face. Gondor was the only really big scale opposition, alongside Rohan, so... Why didn't Sauron send his whole force against them? Gandalf is of course wise, but Denethor's perception had been warped by decades of psy-ops and also depression from losing Boromir and almost losing Faramir. Not the most reliable source.

[@amsfountain8792]

Logistics.

[@kingdomofaphalas.2485]

Some awesome questions here, could be that he was expecting a large free people's host behind the ring bearer, could be because he secretly knew that the woodland realm but especially lorien with galadriel present would not fall to mere forces of dol guldur, could be partly relating to saruman's betrayal, mysteries in the east relating to the blue wizards (The nature of middle earth stated that they did prevent the hosts of the east being greater), the re-emergence of the ents as well as eagles also still being around. I mean even now we don't actually know how much Sauron himself knew about what was going considering how often he was hiding in the east or mirkwood - did he even know about Balin's expedition for example? The thing I like is that without it being stated Sauron pretty much had his eyes on two maybe three places in particular - Gondor (Hatred of the dunedain and Isildur's line), Rivendell (The Elves) and Lorien at a stretch (Galadriel) though it kind of caused him a bit of tunnel vision where he sent so much of his strength into Gondor whilst entrusting the attacks of what he might see as lesser targets in terms of erebor/dale and rohan to his allies or puppets. Whilst you can pretty much dismiss the assaults on the elven realms as nothing more than delays. I mean you compare it to the second age where in the war of Elves and Sauron - Sauron literally did all the attacks himself or on his own direction, his hatred for the high elves and dunedain eclipsed pretty much anything else.

[@evanjohnson1299]

no good commander commits his entire force to a battle unless there is no choice. There are always unforeseen complications in a expedition, having reserve forces is always a good idea and mordor is centrally located to any potential threat. Plus the morghul host so vastly outnumbered Gondor/Rohan would would the hosts left back really make a difference? After the witch king died the morale of the morghul horde broke and they all where in disordered retreat the extra orcs would've just made the retreat worse. If the men of Rhun weren't needed to attack the lonely mountain and could fully commit to the assault on Minas Tirith that could've made a difference the Easterlings where sauron's most disciplined forces.

[@istari0]

Sauron decided to move earlier than in his original plan. In all likelihood, if he had stuck to the original plan, the forces that attacked Minas Tirith would have been much larger and sacked the city.

[@TheMinskyTerrorist]

He was rushing some because he believed Aragorn had the ring.

[@lukethegoldenminecart1297]

I mean, at the point of pelennor fields, Sauron was under the impression that Aragorn or at the very least someone traveling with Aragorn possessed the ring. It didn't occur to him that they would want to destroy it until it was quite literally too late. Heck, Frodo's progress in Mordor may have solely rested on the fact the ring was supposedly being brought to Sauron. As long as Sauron can get the ring he could still win, that was his mentality

[@chris_zcv]

Cool video! I would like to see from you a video on Aragorn adventures before Lotr events.

[@EliasHall7]

Very interesting video👍

[@Kartal49ful]

Will you make a Video, where you talks about youre Thoughts on ride of the Rohirrim?

[@apstrike]

Sauron was not in trouble, but he was not exercising good generalship or strategy. Mostly, he's the aggressor and he controls the timeline, so if he fails to win a large part of that failure is on him.Minas Morgul should never have been left empty of defenders, and Dol Guldur should not have fallen. A more professional general would not have attacked all his enemies at once wherever they were on the map until he ran out of troops. Logically, it would make more sense to send additional troops to Dale, on the principle that you should throw an additional resources in the places that you're winning. Alternately, he could have reinforced the Lorien attack by holding off attacking Thranduil. In short, most real world campaigns are fought by having armies serially attack objectives A, B , and C, regrouping and reinforcing after each battle. In contrast, sauron just divides his armies based on how many threats he has and throws one army at one threat, hoping to conquer them all.

[@colinbielat8558]

Personally I think sauron did need to attack thranduil, the relationship between the people of Dale, dwarves and woodland elves were better than a century before. If sauron did not attack the woodland relm it was possible that the forces besieging erebor could have been attacked from the rear. And in such an event the forces in erebor would have sallied out to hem in the besieging army.

[@papapalps2415]

This is peak armchair Internet 'strategist' garbage, lul.

[@alanpennie]

Indeed. The campaign in The North, unlike the one in The South, was badly planned and badly conducted. My handwave is that Sauron didn't give it a great deal of thought, believing that conquest of Gondor was all that really mattered.

[@apstrike]

@@papapalps2415 Thanks for trying to punch down, but you're swinging wide. Anytime you're fighting and you run yourself out of army you're not doing a good job. You can choose to believe otherwise because Sauron is the big bad and must therefore be an awesome general or because Tolkien is somehow immune to criticism, but that is not warfare in the real world.

[@mattilauerma7087]

I've interpreted that at the Battle of Morannon, "ten times and more than ten times" meant over 20 times the Host of the West; the Host of the West was under 6,000 strong at the Battle of Morannon, so my interpretation would mean Sauron's host was around 120,000. I'm not exactly sure how large Sauron's host would have been in Mordor before the Battle, since an army of Easterlings of unspecified size had freshly arrived to the Gate and revealed themselves as the host of Sauron surrounded Aragorn's host. I still think Sauron had more than 100,000 soldiers in Mordor, and some would definitely have been needed to occupy the fortresses and guard the slaves in the mines, forges and fields; I also think many units might have been kept in place and intact in the more far-away corners of Mordor, like eastern Nurn, since the Battle of Morannon took place only ten days after the Battle of the Pelennor Fields, and the Host of the West reached Morannon in a week. Edit: grammar

[@windsaw151]

Pelennor set back his plans seriously, probably for years. Could we call that "in trouble"? Maybe, maybe not. But what I think is certain is that he considered himself in trouble. He acted rash even before Pelennor, which is something he hated doing for ages

[@alanpennie]

This is true. He does appear to have been seriously concerned that someone would manage to wield The Ring against him. If it had not been found he would presumably have continued quietly building up his strength.

[@inquisitorgarza312]

Well I never took into account how much Sauron lost during those battles and there is no doubt that he was getting a bit nervous at the fact that the Free People were fighting much harder than what he thought, and what worse is that he still couldn’t find his ring and he knows for a fact that the King of Gondor has return and he is threatening you directly.

[@SNWWRNNG]

Sauron himself probably worried about Aragorn using the Ring against him even more once the news of the Pelennor defeat came in. But from the perspective of the Free Peoples, without the Ring, military victory was almost out of the question.

[@istari0]

Sauron's forces were too vast and we don't know how much more he could bring in from the east. The Free Peoples could inflict massive losses on Sauron and still would have been overwhelmed in the end.

[@General12th]

Hi Darth! Did the loss of the Witch King mean anything to Sauron?

[@uriustosh]

Sauron was not in trouble at all. His forces were not limitless, but far from spent. And what was important to him was the ring. As long as it existed he wasnt going anywhere. His power might wax and wane, his orc units decrease or increase in size, but he wasnt getting dslodged from Mordor ever again and it would be a matter of time before his forces eventually won. Sauron could be patient. While it seems like the heroes were the chosen destined warriors to save Middle Earth, thats from our perspective in the books. To Sauron, it would appear that the Free Peoples were as weak as ever and nothing in particular about the current opponents made this moment any different than previous eras.

[@TotalWarGamer-hb4kd]

I agree but I believe he must have felt like an incompetent man when he realised that all his forces were defeated in mere months and he won only 2 battles : Osgiliath and Dale. and if am not wrong Gandalf mentions that the forces send to pelenor and Minas Tirith represented like the smallest finger of the hand ( his hand being his entire army) so Sauron wouldn't be too concerned yet but still that's quite an army he has lost just in pelenor field alone. But the greatest loss was undoublty the Witch-King. Also let's not forget that Orcs are weaker than men , elves and dwarves and Sauron compensate this with trolls, evil men ,Uruks and oliphants and these unlike orcs are not unlimited. My point is the free people could win ( altough it's very slim) if they used clever tricks and military tactics. Numbers help a lot in war but they're not the determined factor. I know Gandalf said they didn't have the strength to oppose Sauron but if the free peoples united together and play smartly and by making sure not to waste casually their soldiers lives there is a chance however small. But their best option was the end of the ring.

[@papapalps2415]

​@@TotalWarGamer-hb4kdWe know for a fact that the Free Proples theoretically could have, if not won, then at least been a severe issue even in a straight military contest under the right circumstances. The population numbers that can be estimated and potential strategic capabillity for mass conscription already make that clear, as well as, per some of Tolkien's letters, Sauron being afraid of even a mortal using the Ring to become a leader of men.

[@bristleconepine4120]

I have to assume, based on Gandalf's and Denethor's comments, that Sauron's army numbered at least a million, perhaps several million. He would still be assumed to win a war of attrition. That said, the fact that he could not take Lórien without coming there *himself* indicates that either his attacks there are doomed or that he knows that it's just a diversion. Now, I wonder how many soldiers Morgoth had at his height (or if he even needed mere *soldiers* at his height!)... Also, nice WWI reference - I have to imagine the battles that he fought in personally influenced JRRT's descriptions of these battles in his books.

[@papapalps2415]

Given the known numbers for the Free Peoples, and virtually any reasonable estimation of the armies he is seen deploying, the idea of a million, nevermind millions, of orcs is comically absurd. You have absolutely zero grasp of scale.

[@MikolajKnas]

In short: operational defeat do not mean strategical defeat. Free Peoples of Middlearth could win another and another operational victories, win another and another compains and battles, but Sauron simply could draft armies, produce weapon and organise new ofensives so, so much faster, that he would eventually sucseed. It was war of atrittion, waged against powerful armies but without strong logistics, manpower replanishment system and generally small manpower pool. In that war Sauron could be deafeted in field literally one hundred times and still be able to raise new armies and attack, when one defeat of FP of Middlearth would bring ultimate defeat and fall of their states. Sauron was delighted to wait for it.

[@agustingomez1575]

Humans spent more time watching the "War in Midde Earth" series than besieging Barad-Dûr. Cool.

[@pavelslama5543]

Sauron - the lord of spam, could always just spam a little more...

[@alanpennie8013]

We should distinguish between the real state of affairs and the way it appeared to Sauron. In reality he was perfectly safe as long as he guarded Mordor from intrusive hobbits. In his own mind he was in imminent danger of annihilation and only a quick military victory offered amy chance of survival.

[@billmcdermott9647]

Oh yeah because he thinks Aragorn has the ring..dosent he? But that might have been a blessing because the ring could corrupt him and then Sauron could just rebuild himself again and try again a few millennia later

[@anr4306]

Sitting back in an impenetrable capital while throwing wave after wave at the enemy till they finally just get ground to dust. Is Sauron Rome during the Second Punic War?

[@SirBoggins]

We all know that Theoden was...

[@adjarho]

Sauron was in trouble after the Pelennor field because after the war Frodo and Sam was already in Mordor while Sauron was being distracted.

[@Uncle_Fred]

Sauron was not threatened. He knew full well that the western Elves were leaving Arda. The last holdouts of men would all fall under his control or be destroyed. Men would come to worship him as a god-king and become his instruments to reshape the world. The only power that could stop him were the Valar and he perceived that they were uninterested in the affairs of the mortal realm.

[@hermanmelville3368]

Sauron fights like Soviet Union - huge army, huge loses and repeat

[@paulemge9156]

Yes! He just didn’t know it lol

[@diazvillamizar]

Good video

[@00yiggdrasill00]

Saurons armies seemed to rely on orcs as their core, and they were like vermin. Hard to root out and spread quickly. Even if the free people won every battle against his slaves from the east, they could not break the nest of orcs that would keep coming and all the while the elves had to depart. Whether it took weeks or hundreds of years Sauron would have won.

[@matthewdunham1689]

Nice WW1 reference. WW2 and the Soviet Union against Germany come to mind also.

[@djashovel]

What if Beleriand Never Sinks under the sea

[@giulioaprati338]

Sir did you mean was?

[@ryancarter1080]

Wasn't this already discussed and answered in your video about Sauron's War plan?

[@chris_zcv]

Yes you are right.

[@daveonwheeler7412]

4th age and 5th age

[@nikost3596]

Why didn't sauron send more troops to minas tirith before the battle of pelenor fields

[@alanpennie]

Probably because they would have starved.

[@hedinsee6830]

No. Next question.

[@venkelos6996]

Honestly, this usually annoys me, because it never really makes sense why Sauron chose that moment to be "cautious". So, he had a huge glut of forces, still in reserve, in Mordor? Then why were they STILL in Mordor? He flexed his might enough to strike out at three other distant foes (off camera, which also annoys, even in book), but didn't toss just another 5,000 troops at Minas Tirith, and win? It sometimes just feels like writing to force it to work; the heroes need to be able to win the fight, but then still be in trouble, so Sauron didn't throw even more troops at the crucial battle? A battle so important he intentionally tries to block three other unlikely allies from reinforcing? It works, certainly, and I am neither a writer on the same stack of planes as Tolkien, nor a cunning tactician, but it seems somewhat contrived, and convenient.

[@Hundredyacrewoods]

My understanding is he was careful because he thought it was possible that A. Gandalf had the One Ring or B. Aragorn had the One Ring and Gandalf was using him as a puppet If A, he wasn't sure if he could win. When the Host of the West rode to the Black Gate he thought B was confirmed (how else could Aragorn be so arrogant?) and wanted to toy with him. Also time, it takes time for news to travel, time for armies to organise and time for them to be moved. In truth had Sauron decided instantly to attack again the army would have left Mordor at around the time the Host of the West arrived anyway. Also, about the off-page events, that's really one of my favourite things about Tolkien - while the main cast are important and essential, they aren't everywhere. The aren't the centre of the universe, things are happening elsewhere and they aren't the only thing on Sauron's mind. Indeed, considering that they are trying to be on his mind as little as possible it's even more important that things happen elsewhere too.

[@djashovel]

what if sauron became the king of numenor

[@talesoftheeldar8688]

*a general on the italian front

[@taWay21]

First!

[@DieLuftwaffel]

You monster

[@universalflamethrower6342]

This is like today Russia, China and Iran team up, within the West 5 columns are everywhere, Denothors and Wormtongues everywhere. Where is our King?

[@darkjudge8786]

Never forget that for all his writing Tolkien resisted military service in WW1 for a year, then avoided deployment for another year, served 4 months at the Somme before getting sick and evacuated just before his battalion was annihilated and the malingered for the rest of the war. He spent a few weeks in combat and escaped whilst all his friends and millions died. He was no hero.

[@blob22201]

A few weeks on the Somme is no joke. I've never heard anyone claim Tolkien was some sort of superman war hero, just that he served on the frontline.

[@TheMinskyTerrorist]

Are you blaming him?