Next Stop: SINGULARITY ― Some milestones I expect in the next 20 years

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[@zahreel3103]

To me, there is no future in which AIs, the Singularity and transhumanism aren't part of the same equation.

[@7TheWhiteWolf]

They’re all more or less interconnected, ASI and the Singularity ensures that Humans are going to become Posthuman, we very well be like Q in a century or two and become post corporeal entities.

[@DJWESG1]

is this in regard to harraways cyborg manifesto?

[@zahreel3103]

@@DJWESG1 Nothing to do with that per se. Just seems logical that the AIs, Singularity and Transhumanism or Post-Humanity would be strictly correlated

[@arnaudjean1159]

​@@7TheWhiteWolf what about postcorporal and superintelligence being in a classic human body ?

[@DJWESG1]

@@zahreel3103 they are all absolutely linked and overlapped. though i think if people wished to see how that all comes together i think its best understood through someone like harraway, as these things have already been* thought about in great detail.

[@Andrew-0815]

I think people in the future will think it's completely crazy that ageing was once not considered a disease in itself and anti-ageing methods were considered a “lifestyle” treatment.

[@dustinbreithaupt9331]

My take is: dying is a natural part of the life cycle. Not a disease. This applies to the physical and metaphysical realm. I wouldn't want to live forever, death isn't this negative horrifying thing. It can be a beautiful conclusion to a life.

[@Andrew-0815]

@@dustinbreithaupt9331 Even if treatments against ageing and age-related death should become available at some point, everyone will surely be free to use them. You will certainly still be allowed to grow old and die. But somehow I doubt that you will refuse if everyone around you suddenly stops ageing and (age-related) dying. 😉

[@kgmindustries8121]

​@dustinbreithaupt9331 I fully respect that take and it's very "zen" you might say. That's good for some people, but for others, my desire is to live at least a few thousand years, I don't want death to get in the way of that experience. As long as people respect my beliefs on this like I respect theirs things will work out just fine.

[@dustinbreithaupt9331]

@@kgmindustries8121 I also respect anyone's wish to extend their existence if they wish. I think the key here is you will only be extending it, not eliminating the possibility of one day dying. In this context, you still end up dying, what does it matter if you lived 80 or 80,000 years? You will still end up in the same place as me, just later on. You cant take all that extra experience with you. You will need to face your fear of death at some point. No matter what. Period. But, yes do as you please I would not get in the way of that.

[@cfjlkfsjf]

Allowing yourself to age should be a choice. Do you wanna live a normal life of growing old and dieing? or do you wanna live longer? up to you.

[@jimj2683]

The part about curing all disease and aging is the most important, because it will buy us time to fix everything else and actually have time to live a fulfilling life..

[@CHIM3RA.]

Honestly we can't "fix" the Earth's natural pole shifts, that's why Elon's plan to Mars is more realistic than all the BS carbon tax, zero emissions etc.

[@GeatMasta]

no it won’t. the birth rate has been going down since the 1980s the reason that the population continues to climb is that people are living longer; but we can’t support a population of 11 billion for more than a few years, you’re talking about its scaling past 15 billion very rapidly, much faster than it would take to build asteroid mining infrastructure; that won’t give us time to solve problems it will make us extinct.

[@remsee1608]

If you can't live a fulfilling life by 70 that's on you

[@CHIM3RA.]

@remsee1608 what are you 17? A fulfilling life ain't easy for many to achieve, so don't act like it's easy. Some people have a hard time dealing with death of a parent or partner, child even. Some people get randomly murdered, some get in a car accident when the other driver was DUI. There's a chance tomorrow ain't for me or you. So don't exclaim like living to 70 is easy when cancer exists or wars. You'll realise when you mature it can get real hard to WANT to live. Do you even understand what I meant by that statement?? I'm not speaking from experience either just giving you a perspective that you never thought about before.

[@KCM25NJL]

@@CHIM3RA. And to add to that, there are plenty of anecdotal reports that those who get to 70, still feel 17 and become somewhat disillusioned by the fact that life "has" to end so soon. Hell, I turned 21 the other day.... and I'm 43. This speaks nothing of my life fulfilment.

[@AntonBrazhnyk]

When one uses oversimplification and wishful thinking it's very easy (and pleasant) to be (over)optimistic. You can do some magic jumps from being able to predict the spacial form of protein or molecule (using a lot of compute, btw) to sudden stuff like "solving chemistry" and even more magical brute force model of human body (someone needs a refresher in computational complexity theory and reminder on order of magnitude we're talking about here). So, back to general stuff... oversimplification and wishful thinking sound great and hence produce a lot of likes and views, but other than that they don't usually work.

[@PostmetaArchitect]

These magic jumps quite literally already happened with alphafold 3 and predictive chemistry. we have already started to map out a much bigger space of possible reactions than what we knew before in chemistry due to neural networks and other AI software. There are labs automating the discovery of new substances fully. This IS just a matter of time. Same goes for simulating the human body. Reality has no ultimate rules on how fast you can model how something in it behaves and then use its own behavior to establish a new emergent pattern in it "compute". You gotta think about automating scientific discovery in general with superhuman capacity and autonomous 24/7 scientific research of thousands of AIs and then itll makes sense how he came to these conclusions.

[@hi-gf5yl]

⁠@@PostmetaArchitectsome problems are undecidable, which practically means they can’t be predicted by simulation. Veritasium’s video on godels incompleteness theorem mentions the spectral gap being undecidable in physics as an example. Undecidable problems require experimentation, it seems.

[@baumwollejr]

Also it is very hard to imagine about exponentially growth. I guess the truth is anywhere in the middle

[@AnuragShrivastav-7058]

@@PostmetaArchitect The very definition of intelligent system is it can transcend the constraints defined for that system. Computers can never transcend the algorithms that govern their behavior and hence never be intelligent. We can call them 'clever machines' at best. Read godels incompleteness theorem. You cannot build intelligence on a set of incomplete algorithms and logic systems. We humans have made the mathematical axiomatic systems of logic for our convenience to describe nature this doent necessarily mean all the physics including the physics that governs human intelligence can be captured by mathematics alone. There is something about human and biological intelligence is which we cannot yet describe by available mathematical and logic systems which make these computers in the first place.

[@twirlyspitzer]

With my luck, the day we cross the line that solves aging & disease is the day I will die of old age &/or any of its multitude of diseases.I'm rapidly approaching that point at which any such speculation is of no personal use. Age is a cruel & decisive master.

[@Kingkhan-qk2vk]

How old are u

[@ScarlettM]

If humanity reaches singularity, I'm sure the goal of bringing back all the people, that didn't make it, will be front and center. You won't miss much.

[@twirlyspitzer]

@@Kingkhan-qk2vk 75, but chronological age is only a component of how old I really am.

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

@@twirlyspitzer sorry man but even I don't think I'll survive to the day we cure ageing and I'm 36. My prediction is around 2069 till we start reversing aging.

[@Recuper8]

Look into NDEs, maybe being dead isn't as bad as we make it out to be. Where were you before you were born? The dying process is indeed terrifying, but countless NDE-ers say that 'death' isn't the end. Not to get too morbid, but maybe being 'alive' is worse. In other words, in the most ancient stories - being immortal was considered to be an especially cruel curse.

[@pzdf8v]

What happened hitting AGI by September? Nobody's talking about it anymore, so either they nailed it or nobody's interested in it anymore.

[@Henriiyy]

I honestly think you're very far off about simulations of the human body at the molecular level. You say that AlphaFold 3 can allegedly simulate every single molecule, then extrapolate to interactions between two molecules and then you say, that with a million times more compute you land at the whole body. The human body is made out of way more than a million molecules though. Even a mole of water, just 20 ml, is made out of about 10^24 molecules. So you would have to scale up computation power by at least a million times a million times a million times a million (literally) to have enough power. Also you would have to know the exact composition of some body down to the molecule. This is IMHO not feasible at all. Even if moores law continued at the same speed, just getting a speedup of 10^25 would take 125 years.

[@cbnewham5633]

Yes, I was struck by that naive comment. It's going to take many many many orders of a magnitude in computing power to simulate even the most basic human functions at the molecular level. I'm not even sure that you'd want to simulate it to that degree. Probably many things can be solved without going to that extreme. David's a smart chap, but sometimes I think his over-optimistic views make him sound very naive. Perhaps it's all the fresh air he's getting on that walk... 😄

[@sjcsscjios4112]

Yeah. I thought that sounded insane, although 125 years is also overdone imo.

[@Henriiyy]

@@sjcsscjios4112 Why is 125 years overdone? For anything quicker, Moores law would have to accelerate substantially, which isn't at all what we are seeing. Transistors cant even get another two orders of magnitude smaller, let alone 25. From Zuses Z3 (1940) to now, which took 80 years, the speedup is about 10^12. You would have to speed up by that factor twice again (so 160 years?), to land at the needed computing powers.

[@advaitc2554]

For me I'll know we're approaching the singularity when the number of people experiencing regular hunger and no access to health care starts to really go down.

[@PakistanIcecream000]

Well said.

[@DJWESG1]

thats already happening across the world under the banner of neoliberalism and austerity. mccarthyism doesnt need a.i , but its gunna make their job a whole lot easier.

[@advaitc2554]

@@DJWESG1 One of the big reasons (but not the only reason) why populations tolerate neoliberalism and austerity is they don't understand MMT and how sovereign fiat currencies actually work. The national budget is nothing like a household budget.

[@DJWESG1]

@@advaitc2554 it doesnt matter what we think about the economy or how its run. the fact that torys run it like a household despite the fact that it is not is just another reminder of the trap we are in.

[@digitalsamurai42]

Why does this need to be part of singularity? two different concepts

[@HectorDiabolucus]

The reason that government won't allow immortality is that it is run by people who want power over the people, and if people live longer they'll get wiser and become ungovernable.

[@Recuper8]

It's hard to enslave a population when that population has wised up to the reality that society is currently structured to keep them a slave. So many people think that because they get a paycheck that they aren't a slave.

[@DonnieDarko727]

​@@Recuper8free range tax cattle

[@epg-6]

There might be a way to skirt around the regulatory issues of life extension. Most of the diseases that kill you when you're old are things you could easily survive when you're young. You could introduce age reversal as a treatment for those otherwise potentially fatal illnesses, rather than as a treatment for aging itself.

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

Whenever I need some pure hopium, I watch one of David's wildly optimistic prediction vids. Shoot it straight into my veins.

[@pythagoran]

We are almost 18 months into being 6 months away from AGI btw... I guess if you can't predict 6 months into the future, just go for 20 years lol Talk about moving the goal post - it's a good strat, since no one will remember to call you out in 20 years and you can still sound smart today.

[@therealscot2491]

Glad you called this out.

[@OnigoroshiZero]

He was saying September of 2024, and if the models that are currently trained or tested have System 2, they will be AGI. It is only a matter of when they decide to release them.

[@lionmanking]

Superconductors are not that expensive it is just expensive to keep them cold.

[@OnigoroshiZero]

He was probably talking about room-temperature superconductors which do not exist as of this moment. Those will be the true breakthroughs.

[@7TheWhiteWolf]

If ASI gets here in the 2030s then I don’t think it’s going to take until 2045, Kurzweil’s 1999-2005 predictions are conservative nowadays IMHO.

[@JamesonLemonade]

Read his new book that just came out. He still says 2045 singularity, but also loosely says as soon as 2029 and many things between then and 2050 across robotics, post scarcity with atom scale manufacturing of anything and matrix level VR, etc

[@7TheWhiteWolf]

@@JamesonLemonade I’ve already read it, he didn’t really say anything new outside of the discussion on consciousness (Kurzweil is a panpsychist now instead of a functional materialist).

[@coolbanana165]

@@7TheWhiteWolf Interesting. Panpsychism also seemed to me most likely when I studied philosophy of mind 10 years ago. No idea if or how exactly it could be true, but it's intriguing that people like Kurzweil are coming to that conclusion too. It would be interesting to read his thoughts on it. I can't find anything about it online.

[@7TheWhiteWolf]

@@coolbanana165 He goes really deep into why he thinks that way around the midway point in TSINer. You should read it to understand his argument, he thinks it’s pivotal to mind uploading and whatever comes after it.

[@ralphneptune9881]

He used to sound crazy. Now he sounds too reasonable. Very often the teller of an unintuitive truth sound insane and than reality imposed itself we realise that the teller of truth was correct and actually very reasonable.

[@shieldmcshieldy5750]

Watch how BCI's become redundant as AF3 + quantum etc leads to level of nootropics that make us all telepathic

[@smyers8535]

I think of "singularity" as the time horizon beyond which you cannot expect to be able to predict. At every point in time, this horizon is always in front of you. As technology advances, the distance between where you are and your horizon shrinks, meaning you are less able to predict the future. This horizon will probably continue to get closer to "now" until we reach the asymptotic flattening of the tech advancement curve, where it will likely begin to push back out again. I guess most people are defining "the singularity" as the point in time where the horizon stops moving towards now, and starts moving away.

[@KCM25NJL]

I see the singularity as the horizon whooshing past and disappearing behind me...... and as I look out, I can't make heads or tails of what is happening, let alone what might happen in the future. Experiencing the singularity, might be what it feels like for a Sloth to live as a human in a human's world, but with all the attributes of a Sloth

[@nescaufe1991]

Yeah, but the human mind's computational power is only good up until that first encounter with the singularity time horizon, right? After that it’s the horizon of predictability to whatever arises after that; Probably not even transhumans, but large data centers, or a network of them. And at the tail-end of that, then maybe something akin to a Jupiter-brain and it’s prediction abilities, right? I know I just blew out time scale out the window, but it’s fun to think of that

[@renalksen]

From what I remember from Ray Kurzweil, our rate of progress is a double exponential curve(?). So the acceleration of progress is accelerating. So 10 years ago everybody felt better making predictions 20 years ahead. Now 20 years in the future might as well be the end of the world. We are making progress faster and the window of making remotely sensible predictions is shrinking, there will come a point where the whole world will go through 5 major paradigm shifts a month - the horizon is so close, it's like you are in a thick fog, you can't really see ahead at all.

[@advaitc2554]

One nice possibility for a post singularity world is described in Banks' Culture sci fi novels.

[@Hydde87]

I do think that further integrating AI with healthcare will be a very big political hurdle given how tight regulation is by default, especially as long as AI models stay unreliable. But once the fountain of life has essentially been cracked, I'm pretty sure regulation and politics won't stand in the way. Plenty of old dinosaurs in parlement who's own lives are on the line. Let's see how much conservative values holds up when it means getting to live/be healthy a few decades longer. I'm pretty sure they'll figure out a way to fast track things. The question of how such technologies would get distributed and who gets access first seems more pressing.

[@phaioncirrus3818]

this video will 'age' (no pun intended) very badly. hubris on display here

[@thomasschon]

The biggest bottleneck will be the economic interests behind the scenes that influence our governments and the potential nuclear winter that could follow. After that, we’ll need to build the tools to build the tools, and so on, until we reach the 1980s level of technology and things can take off again.

[@DonnieDarko727]

Shhhh

[@treewx]

Demis Hassabis, has said he eventually wants to model a human cell. Not sure on time frame he had in mind.

[@gdok6088]

I don't think Demis Hassabis is into hanging around. He was a child prodigy in chess from the age of 4 and reached master standard at the age of 13.

[@zach464]

I love these outdoor walk videos. Glad to see you do them again. Keep up the good work.

[@VictorGallagherCarvings]

If chemistry is solved then molecular circuitry will follow.

[@funnyperson4016]

I’m very excited about this optimism. We get to live in a time where we may reach the age when we can reverse aging.

[@lilchef2930]

When do u suppose

[@RaySonic_99]

this made me think of the Planck's principle - "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it ..."

[@greatcondor8678]

Medicine is not made to improve benefit to people, it is made to aquire patent protection of profits.

[@greatcondor8678]

If you haven't noticed, the world is sicker than ever.

[@LaserGuidedLoogie]

The "Singularity" breaks the economic model of all pharmaceutical companies, and big health conglomerates. That is a bottleneck that will be bigger than anything, because these organizations have more power than most governments, and they will definitely put roadblocks into the path of anyone trying to solve aging. We can already see this with companies like Metro Bio Tech (David Sinclair) lobbying the FDA to take NMN supplements off the market, so that it can offer a patented form of NMN.

[@jimj2683]

David Sinclair is such a snake.

[@Tracey66]

With the utter contempt that the government and the rich and powerful have for us regular folk, I can't imagine that they will just let us have longevity medicine. :(

[@zevofeir]

There is no way people would not go crazy about getting this medicine. There would be riots, people hacking or breaking into facilities, doing all kinds of shady things to get their hands on it. And perhaps to stop this, it will get equally distributed.

[@KCM25NJL]

Everything about human civilization is built on the fact that we all have up to around 100 years of life. If we double that overnight, we have to rebuild the world overnight. The rich and the powerful become rich and powerful off the backs off people with skills and experience. Arguably, they'd love their workforce to continue working for twice as many years.......... certainly in skilled occupations. Governments however have the ugly task of rebuilding the world......overnight.... so umm.... yeah.

[@lilchef2930]

@@KCM25NJLyes there’s an incentive to keep people from dying especially productive citizens in America lol

[@JayBlackthorne]

Another great David Shapiro outdoors video. I watch and listen to these multiple times on loop.

[@urulai]

"Enhancement is not allowed." What the actual fuck?!

[@albionicamerican8806]

I'm looking forward to becoming an immortal superhuman.

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

if you're young enough you might just get your wish.

[@DefaultModeNetwork]

Well, AlphaFold does not “solve” chemistry, it is a huge breakthrough but only solves the 3D structures of proteins, which btw can change give the environment the protein is in. Hopefully this is evident to most people watching this. There are specific types of problems that may be solvable using current AI which could have a big impact. The most obvious is understanding the human immune system - a multi-layer cellular, chemical and organ system that works to protect us from infectious diseases but when dysfunctional can cause life threatening disorders. Understanding this system would potentially save many human lives and relieve many of serious illness. It’s important for computer scientists to stay grounded in other fields before jumping to conclusions that are naive.

[@Vlado709]

Meanwhile, we can't reverse baldness... Go figure?

[@HarshPatel-hh5on]

😂

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

or tooth decay, lol wtf!

[@sjcsscjios4112]

There isn’t much funding, there’s like only a few people pushing the boundaries

[@DiceDecides]

I don't think aging should be a part of what makes us human, just ask old people if they would choose to be young again if they could, 99% would say yes for sure

[@cbnewham5633]

That's not the same question. Being young again is not the same as halting aging. You need a lifetime of experiences and the aging process in order to fully appreciate life, I would say. Besides which, we have no idea what extension will do to the human brain in terms of thoughts and feelings. I would not be surprised, even if mentally and physically fit, some (many?) people will not want to continue living way past 120. There may even be a measure of culture shock around it - lots of older people pine for earlier times and massive extensions may well exacerbate this.

[@DiceDecides]

@@cbnewham5633 reversing aging wouldn't reverse your memories, only fix the damaged cells that slow you down and make you weaker

[@No2AI]

All the excitement surrounding AI tech is understandable, what I cannot understand is the absence of fear by the vast majority… this is not something mankind will be able to manage and control - there will be a line crossing moment at some point in time. Inevitable!

[@PapiDey-dv4gw]

Totally, what the heck will happen to our current socio economic structures.

[@zvorenergy]

8.19% chance by 2030 assuming flawless hardware, Agent Smith.

[@No2AI]

@@zvorenergy I believe we are much closer - we don’t need a human level or more sentient entity, all that is necessary is a tool that has the power and ability to act on what it concludes, based on statistics.

[@gdok6088]

@@PapiDey-dv4gw They will change, just as they did in the agrarian and industrial revolutions.

[@zvorenergy]

@@No2AI I defined ASI as 2000+ IQ, full-spectrum modality, and no context limitations. I also assumed we will have 10 exaflop holographic computers with fractal memory.

[@vova12]

My biggest fear is that achieving all of these things is a lot harder than you make it seem, and we are nowhere near aging escape velocity

[@lilchef2930]

They’ve been working on it for decades tho and now since AI is so advanced well achieve it probably

[@OnigoroshiZero]

You are walking with a supercomputer in your pocket that also has the functionality of at least a few hundred different tools while being able to access the vast majority of the collective human knowledge at any moment for free. You have 3 times the life expectancy than what the average human did 200 years ago, and almost double of what the average was barely 80 years ago. Progress is happening faster than what most people realize, we just adjust almost as fast.

[@lilchef2930]

@@OnigoroshiZero I love that perspective man

[@dirkbruere]

Having a solution to something and deploying it, fully tested, in the market takes years if not decades

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

not anymore in today's world. The Covid vaccine was created and mass produced in less than a year.

[@Mephmt]

The only thing holding us back is us

[@thomasb.3833]

I don't think you can cure all disease if you mastered chemistry. You first need to know the relation between chemistry and disease. Think of depression for example.

[@DaveShap]

This myth needs to die lol we understand depression extremely well

[@cbnewham5633]

​@@DaveShapI really have to question that. We don't understand very well how the brain works.

[@pounchoutz]

“ now nuclear fusion is turning out to be much more complicated than we thought” lol

[@GeatMasta]

photonic computing isn’t a real solution; for it to beat silicon it needs to use xrays as its photons and then it just goes right through the machinery.

[@joflo5950]

There is no way we can simulate the human body on a molecular scale any time soon. I roughly estimated weight / molar mass of water (as an example) * Avogadros number, and this gives on the order of 10^27 Molecules. Even if each time step took just a single FLOP, which would be absurd, it would still take on the order of about an hour years per time step on an Yottaflop, so 1,000,000x more compute than current Exaflop, machine (just Fermi estimates, look at orders of magnitude). And even if you could describe each Molecule with a single byte, it would still take up many orders of magnitude more storage than is available in the entire world right now.

[@robertlipka9541]

Thanks! Plus, sorry for skipping ads on your videos.

[@I_am_a_human_not_a_commodity]

Why would you ever apologize for skipping ads? God, the state of this consumer/corporate society is so sad.

[@dg-ov4cf]

@@I_am_a_human_not_a_commodity Humans are a commodity

[@robertlipka9541]

@@dg-ov4cf ... some humans have no sense of banter and take things too literally. I feel for you guys... life must be extra hard 😁

[@dg-ov4cf]

@@robertlipka9541 wtf are you talking about

[@mikewa2]

We have to survive the Robot Wars to witness ASI. The next 5 years will be so world changing and we just can’t predict what’s going to happen.

[@thomasschon]

What I find most frustrating about their efforts to solve aging is the possibility that I might miss the start of the treatment by just a few months. The second most frustrating thing is that most of the people I cared about have already passed away. It’s something you realize when something good happens, and you come home to find that there’s no one left to share it with.

[@lilchef2930]

Why what’s your age

[@thomasschon]

@@lilchef2930 61

[@lilchef2930]

@@thomasschontechnically u should be able to make it. How is your health?

[@thomasschon]

@@lilchef2930My health's okay.

[@ReubenAStern]

Computers compute. They don't make physical materials. They'd be useful if you need to figure out how to synthesize the material, or more likely to figure out what molecular structure and compounds you need. It's probably easy to make that mistake if you're a computer scientist.

[@zdenekburian1366]

I think these type of hypothesis will be remembered in the future as one of the many cases of totally wrong predictions; one for all: "quantum" mania

[@cbnewham5633]

I think you are overly optimistic - and talking about quantum computing... i think that may very well be a fusion scenario (always 20 years away).

[@Merrily-in1mq]

Two things from seeing the start of this video. Firstly, love the thumbnail. Secondly always good to see more outdoor walk videos :DDD

[@JarodM]

I hate to burst optimists proverbial bubble but I don't think these longevity treatments will be available to the general public for decades.

[@TropicalTopicx]

I don't know how should I feel about this "prediction" when it comes out exactly when alphaproteo is being introduced.

[@Franklyfun935]

I love that thumbnail. I’d like to turn it into a poster and put it on my wall.

[@darshuetube]

hey, you look like peter Zheihan

[@lionmanking]

If we have ais that are 10 or 100 or more less efficient then the human brain. But we can scale them to to be able to compute and understand way more then our brain. Should that not be enough. They could take in a life experience worth of information in a in seconds and we have the materials on this planet to build computers. The boodle neck of human creation is not the resources of keeping us running that stops us creating them. If we would create some kind of computing mechanism that is 1000 times bigger but 100 cheaper that would be good enough for most applications.

[@influenceIPM]

🎯 Key points for quick navigation: 00:39 *🧠 Moore's Law advances, aiming for computational efficiency like human brains.* 01:32 *🔬 AlphaFold and similar tech advance accurate organic molecule simulation.* 02:52 *🖥️ AI and quantum computing accelerate modeling capabilities in chemistry and biology.* 03:34 *⚗️ Predictions suggest chemistry complexities could be solved in 5-10 years, revolutionizing medicine.* 04:56 *⚛️ Nuclear fusion remains challenging for sustainable energy production.* Made with HARPA AI

[@gbbenner9382]

Always enjoy your videos.

[@Voorhees94sg]

I would love to see a survey asking "Do you believe we will achieve LEV by 2030?" (or better yet "in your lifetime"). I admit that I'm very skeptical (I doubt it will happen at all in my lifetime), but I'm curious what other viewers think.

[@petermilian4455]

Assuming the longevity escape velocity developments you're talking about materialize it'll be fascinating to see how rapidly life expectancy disparities across the US accelerate. Assuming you can move to a location where access to these technologies is both available and unrestricted and you've removed aging, illness and pollution exposure from your personal mortality risk then you'll be left with a materially different portfolio of mortality risk dominated primarily by accident risk (including overdoses) and to a much less extent by violent crime. Essentially the relative benefits of moving somewhere with (1) durable longevity technology access and (2) lower accident related mortality are going to skyrocket. The more I think about 2030+ the more I think that it'll be hard to avoid living in NYC, Boston, Honolulu, Minneapolis, etc. if you value "uninterrupted" longevity. I'm currently living in a less desirable location with a lower tax burden and saving for a future move to a location where the combination of policy, culture and wealth results in upward momentum for the local "longevity dividend".

[@radiuspsychedelic357]

Hey David, off topic for this video but I was wondering have you heard of anyone wanting to use AI (as it improves) to analyze crop circles and their possible hidden messages? I have a theory that all will be understood when we reach a certain point of higher intelligence, but is there anyone going to put in that work? I follow several Ufologist on Twitter, but everyone is focused on governmental disclosure of secret tech. I have a feeling if we can find the meanings of real crop circles, it may help guide AI and humans without the need for contact. Just putting that out there bc it's been eating at me and I'm not sure if I'm capable of doing it alone

[@cfjlkfsjf]

The singularity will be like the movie the transcendence. Massive quick steady progress.

[@mimameta]

I think we need to start with defining all these words we use in sentences first. AGI, ASI, etc. the more time we spend defining these terms the less time we will spend arguing over the consequences of said definitions imho

[@asdfjkloe]

Your mental model of quantum computing sounded like a huge oversimplification. It misses the fact that you also have to find a way for all undesired superposition options to cancel out. You can't just say "cancel out all the wrong solutions", there need to be certain symmetries between all wrong solutions that can be exploited.

[@prestonforayter2584]

I will be 73 next month. I have a defect where my tendons don't stretch. Believe me aging is a disease. I can't even stand to lie down anymore.

[@XEternity]

Did I hear some time ago that WHO already considers puting aging on a desease list? I think I heard something like that.

[@Yaddlezap]

leaving a comment for the algorithm

[@bujin5455]

7:11. Considering the fact society is becoming increasingly top heavy all the time, and the US is completely ran by the geriatric, I'm not sure it's as hard as you think. Not mention there is a HUGE financial incentive to keep people work ready, and off of social security.

[@Gerdbro]

Good video

[@Arcticwhir]

if we solve aging we 100 PERCENT will need to implement term limit on every level of government.

[@DonnieDarko727]

Can't give up government yet huh?

[@mystic6121]

For chemistry, I would look at gnome for progress.

[@DorianStefaniuk]

I really love your approach! Thanks for your insights.

[@cmw3737]

Chemistry should get way more respect as a science. Biotech and physics get people excited but chemistry is seen as a boring or even bad science that creates pollution. So many big problems are ones of chemistry so once we have abundant energy being able to find safe chemical pathways to convert waste back into useful stuff will be a huge advancement. AI will be a huge help in simulating all those possible reactions and pathways.

[@RichardSmith-rv1bg]

What did you do to your left arm, man? When it heals will you broadcast from your office again?

[@vi6ddarkking]

In the 2000s spider man movies, in the one with the Lizard, They had a computer that would stimulate the outcome of a gene therapy. Especially to regrow an arm in the case of the movie. Looks like we'll have that little toy before the decade is out.

[@Leshpngo]

Great video I am happy now super cool stuff keep it up keep rocking, and don’t forget to that your awesome!

[@nexoofficiel7915]

J'espère un jour être immortel, être suffisamment intelligent et rempli de connaissances et avoir ou créé un TARDIS pour voyager dans l'univers et trouver une planète qui parle une même langue que le français et rencontrer la fille de mes rêves, mon âme soeur 💖🥰

[@kccorliss3922]

Understanding protein folding isnt same as understanding all of human physiology, sorry

[@inspectorcrud]

Nice spinal tap reference

[@shieldmcshieldy5750]

IIRC key reason for brains efficiency is chiral induced spin selectivity, which spintronics will start approaching?

[@SingularityZ3ro1]

Not sure about the governments, since it always sounds like aging is the one biggest threat to them, and their economics and social systems in general, which all are frantically trying to solve. In other words population decline and overwhelmed health systems. Productivity explosion, or not. I think everything that eliminates aging related decline and the need for 2,4 children will get break through status. We Europeans will probably need to travel to other countries, at least the ones that literally have no time left, since we put regulation and banning always first - for the good and bad. But other than that. Also I think there has been a big fuzz arround 5 years ago that aging was officially declared a disease, which officially enabled funding in that regard, if I am not mistaken. So I was surprised to hear that it was seemingly not. Well, likely depending on the institution again. I think many people, me included, would get really upset, if some powerful minority gatekeepers would make us die from aging for their personal conviction, that people having control over their lifespan would hurt their religious, or moral(?) feelings.

[@azhuransmx126]

And the Science will get increased to final levels😊

[@jamesmack1350]

Solve chemistry, solve energy, the rest is just details.

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

Energy should've already been solved, we get enough energy from the Sun to power the whole world 1000 times over, and that's not accounting for all the other energy sources out there like nuclear, fossils, hydropower etc. Capitalism is the only thing stopping us from achieving energy abundance.

[@Pawel_Mrozek]

2:45 You would not sumilate this way tryptophan quantum states especially entanglement in neurons of the human brain so using brut force method would not give real human brain simulation.

[@lilchef2930]

So LEV by 2030? That means we’re already there kinda

[@alextoader2880]

The energy milestone seems pretty hard. Like SamA used to say - the cement needs to dry... even if we have the technology now, it will still take us 20-50 years to build all those huge plants. I would have liked to hear you explore more probable steps to ASI - even if they are smaller. Will we have robots like we have cars? I think so.. looks probable in the next 5-10y - right? When we wont need to work anymore? Around when we will have the robots? When ppl wont need to work anymore - will they leave the cities and go back to smaller settlements - back to nature? And we will have empty dystopian cities in 5 years? Why are they not decoupling the mechanical part of building the robots to the software? I wish they could because all the car manufacturers could enter the game so we can reach max production. When will we have self-driving cars after all? Can we retrofit a self-driving device to cars that don't have self-driving capabilities? Will AGI stop the ongoing wars? I hope yes - that is one of my biggest hopes. Maybe we will be more focused on making an anty robots army. What can we do about the food? I am waiting for food like astronauts have - where I don't have to cook just have something will all the proteins and vitamins. When will we have those cookies?

[@nescaufe1991]

20 years!?!?

[@nescaufe1991]

I’ll be 39!!!!

[@lilchef2930]

@@nescaufe1991me too brother! We are youngggg

[@lilchef2930]

U think we will live hundreds of years?

[@TimAZ-ih7yb]

“Brute force simulation of the human body” - no, that is nonsense. Your numbers are off by 10^10 or so. Learn about phase space before making statements like this.

[@cbnewham5633]

Ah, but you haven't factored in magical quantum computing which, of course, will solve everything (it won't).

[@r0m1q]

You look 100 times better in a regular black t-shirt. Guys, never listen to your wife when it comes to style.

[@austinmchaney]

What part of NC are you in ?? Looks beautiful

[@rigaleb]

if only biology would work like a static puzzle, then just supplying the "missing" proteins would "cure" us of aging. We might the surprise of realizing that we our bodies don't work at all like that.

[@davidneufer]

Off-label medication for aging is only a problem for this and some other countries, but not all.

[@sport2175]

If aging is halted and reversed, fine, great. But let’s make term limits for Congress and judges a thing. Who wants to be ruled by immortal boomers?

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

If immortality is also made available to the masses, they won't let themselves be ruled by boomers or anyone.

[@therealscot2491]

Where is this agi?

[@etiennerobert6462]

Fusion does not generate more electricity out than electricity in.

[@Rh22-c9l]

Being transgender helps me to understand this tipic in a deeper level

[@ned-flander-s]

@david shapiro -> A request: can you please do an explainer on the LLM vs 'new'/emerging foundations for agentic ai? Hope all is well bro.

[@patpowers9210]

Thought provoking as always.

[@saintkamus14]

have you ever considered recording binaural audio for your walks? It'd add a layer of immersion for us ;-)

[@albionicamerican8806]

Of course the AI's might decide for us that humans flourish better under a pre-Enlightenment kind of society. A technologically competent Future World guided by AI's could look like a cross between _The Expanse_ and _The Handmaid''s Tale._

[@logansanoh]

God tier futurist convo mid-sentence vo2 Max anti climax. Bruh

[@kostaslevendis4305]

I think the solutions to the problems you present are a lot harder than you anticipate. 1) Solving chemistry. Knowing the three dimensional structure of a molecule and how various molecules can interact with each other is useful. But although we know the composition of the air we cannot predict what the weather will be like next month. So, I am not sure that we can get there. 2) About nuclear fusion I don't think it's possible to achieve much. There is the huge problem of tritium scarcity. Whatever we (or any AI) invent, it will not be sufficiently scalable. Huge topic, many things one can say to counter my argument, so I will just leave it there. I suggest you look into fusion a little, it's far harder than we all think. Besides, it's just ten years away since the 50s. 3) You talked about solving energy. Let's say we have unlimited energy, somehow. Any use of energy, means converting one type to another, which means there will always be some loss in heat. So, even if/when we can produce as much as we like, there will be the problem of how much we should produce before we burn everything. Kind of the heating up the planet problem in fast forward. 4) Solving aging and not dying (of natural causes) are different. I can imagine living to 150 in a body of a 20 year old and then one day, that body suddenly deteriorates, collapses and I just die. Solving aging would be awesome and it could be classified as a disease, great idea! I am not sure how I feel about solving dying. I believe it is also doable, there are some species (some turtles I believe) that will just not die physically and I don't mean plants. Anyway, I enjoy your videos and I thought I should say hi and mention fusion mostly. Then I got carried away. One last note, English is not my first language. So, if something doesn't make sense, it might be bad English.

[@giovannifoulmouth7205]

Interesting points but here's my counter-arguments: 1) predicting the weather is not comparable to trying to understand molecular interactions between proteins, we understand the chemistry of air very well but we still have no idea how many diseases function. Also I think eventually we will be able to predict the weather one month in advance, that just requires a lot more compute. 2) There are other pathways to fusion that don't involve tritium but I also think fusion is very far into the future. We can create energy abundance with solar power and wind alone rn. 3) There are ways to cool down the planet too, it's not that complicated, for example reducing the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, increasing the Earth's albedo or something more radical like solar shades. 4) Solvin dying is not even in the discussion, it's physically impossible bc nothing is indestructible much less our soft brains. Even if we solve aging, people will still die in accidents. The goal is to solve aging and then hopefully engineer our bodies to be stronger faster tougher i.e. transhumanism.