Deep Dive 25/06/2024 - Back to normal? - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. The heat comes to an end but what happens next? Back to more typical UK summer weather? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.

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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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[@Hix066]

Going to break the trend by opening the comments without whingeing or moaning 😂😂

[@CurboroughSprinter]

Or mentioning how beautiful the presenter is in a slightly creepy manner. 😂

[@jamesmcfarlane5818]

Not too hot for you? 😂

[@michellemcgowan5657]

😂😂😂

[@darraghgregory1269]

This is one my favourite days of the week between the Deep Dive and the 10 day forcast ❤ love from Ireland 🇮🇪

[@Pablo260492]

Love from Spain

[@mattc7713]

Interesting forecast, thanks Aidan. I work for a refrigeration and Air Con company in Bristol. It's funny how soon as the temps raise a little bit, the amount of service calls that come in from food stores, where the fridges and freezers are running at high temp. It's only Tuesday and already there's been plenty of call outs, dreading the rest of the week.

[@mariannecousinsredpandapla5786]

Thanks Aidan, although I love warm weather , 20 degrees Celsius isn't too bad,

[@geoffreywray4235]

Deep dive for the next few weeks, rain rain clouds rain rain wind rain clouds and more rain and clouds, have a nice summer ☀️ 😅😊😅😊😅😊😅😅😅😅

[@andrewstopford2121]

I’d be curious to see a future deep dive on what the influence of El Niño has had on our weather?

[@lisah.5559]

I remember a video not too long ago on El nino and La nina, have a hunt back x

[@sallytaitchison-gould740]

Wimbledon starts Monday..of course weather changing!

[@tonyharpur8383]

😂😅

[@alayneperrott9693]

Brilliantly explained as usual, Aidan, as usual, thanks.

[@Jay-Leigh]

Aidan always makes my day sunny ☀️ 😊❤

[@glidezilla]

After the warmest month of May on record, the wheels are falling off the cart.

[@edcoward1011]

People going to Glasto take note! No heat wave conditions. Sounds pretty good to me.

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

Don't you like the summer heat

[@vanessamarkham8190]

Thanks Aiden for another great Deep Dive. Love the heat but it doesn’t like me not at 28 degrees I got today. Very interesting how our weather patterns change so quickly. But 20 degrees will be much better for me. Always listen to this and 10 day trend and 14 days. Keep them coming xx

[@sallyannwheeler6327]

Our valleys are green enough.😂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[@AbAb-th5qe]

Thanks Aidan :) The weather's great here the last few days. Nice and sunny as well as hot, but not too hot 😊

[@mariobellu9359]

Beautiful 🎉 thank you for your talents

[@jopearce6711]

I'm so plz it's getting cooler hate the heat. Not long left until the weather turns back to much cooler and autumn like can't wait. Xxx

[@RobMorton-cd4ps]

Why are blue sky days so rare in this country? Today has been cloudy at times, a bit depressing Could you also feature why this year has contained so many dull months? Surely this run must be broken soon

[@metoffice]

January 2024 was sunniest than average but since then every month from February to May has been dull. At the moment, June 2024 is running very slightly above average for sunshine so it may not end up being a dull month, although it'll probably end up close to average. The reason for the dull spring was a south-shifted jet stream and the dominance of low pressure just to the southwest of the UK, steering a lot of Atlantic rainclouds in our direction.

[@RobMorton-cd4ps]

@metoffice Thank you for the information. It's a bad run, which I hope is ended this month which looks like it will be. I think here in the South West (Bristol), it may have been a bit duller than average this month

[@ricksville1]

Crystal clear blue skies here in east Anglia all day ,and working out in it 😊😊

[@markhodgkinson8431]

Blame the sea that surrounds us down in Cornwall both coasts can have completely different weather one coast can be bright sun the other coast 10 miles away can be clouded right up depending which way the wind has blown, it's been an odd year but greyer and milder than average hopefully the second half of the year is brighter

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

Maby in late August and September when we get an Indian summer

[@DarrenChilvers]

Thank you for mentioning Hector pascels, something an aviation interest has got me interested in

[@robertshaffery667]

Brilliant presentation as usual 👍 Low 20's is just perfect 😎

[@dianeanderson6695]

Love the weekly forecast easy to follow and very informative thankyou.

[@michael954]

Why is it so hard to predict thunderstorms they seam to always get that one right in the USA but we don't i just wondered why that was

[@Nemrai]

I live in Norway. But it's great to see that lower temperatures are on the way, that's much nicer than a lot of heat.

[@saydvoncripps]

Yes. I prefer the cooler temperatures. Viking ancesters will do that. 😃 they do live on.

[@joyhursey1480]

Thanks Aidan .

[@janl7552]

Really interesting! Thank you!

[@harrym5415]

Great presentation. A very good example showing how small deviations in the pressure north and south (NAO) can make a big difference to our experienced weather.

[@flutterlybutterly6188]

Thanks Aidan. Love watching these.

[@edwardjcrane1986]

So, for those going to Silverstone next week, pack your wet gear and your shorts. Could get a shower or two over the duration of the weekend, with some sunny spells mixed in.

[@davidcann6021]

What classes as a June average?

[@metoffice]

The averages increase during the month. Last week of June, typically 18-21C in the south and 16-18C in the north.

[@dboots133]

as always, thank you for all the hard work thats put into this vlog. kind regards jenny&dave, mon&brec canal, south wales uk.

[@hannahsparkes5364]

Amazing detail!! And very educational!! Thank you xx 👍💗

[@theweatherlog]

Really enjoy your deep dives and other broadcasts. It would be great if you could make available to the public that temperature map you showed at the beginning. (Including max and minimum) if not, just a table showing live,min, max of all met office stations. Thanks

[@Pjagri]

No heat In northern ierland just really cold

[@AwardedGamer]

Good video Aiden, as always. ❤

[@christinepease890]

Thank you, Aidan

[@soniawoodley7805]

At least the cooler weather doesn't scorch our plants , fruit and veg cultivation . 😊

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

I can except thunderstorms and a breakdown and much needed rain 🌧. But this westerly influence (autumnal weather ) is just freak weather

[@jeangreenfield5993]

Hectopasquels ?? - I'm intrigued 😊. ( *Off to check spelling ) Love this word . Air pressure connection presumably ☔⚡🌞🌍

[@Fred-wy8zw]

This year has been so variable - 2 or 3 days of sun and warmth and then back to cool grey days…. Enjoy the deep dives but can we also look at what is happening in the rest of Europe too - esp as holiday season. Thanks

[@thewhitbyphotographer]

That mist/sea fret turned up here on Tuesday evening. very patchy and atmospheric.

[@danspotter8618]

Well that goes summer if we ho back to normal temperatures 🌡

[@malacca1951]

I like the detail, graphics and informative forecasts you give us. A question: When you mention that temperatures are, 'Near to average', does that mean near to average for that particular hour or day, or for that week, or even for June - and in what area of the country? And following on from that and out of interest: What is the AVERAGE temperature for the UK for a whole year?! Thanks for all your work.

[@waynester71]

So in the blue corner, we have the low pressure system over Iceland - and in the red corner we have the high pressure system over the Azores.. Ding ding, round 1 - FIGHT 🌞🌧️

[@amandamarais8960]

Hi. Could you give us a description of the different coinciding weather patterns that determine the UK weather, please? The Arctic one etc.

[@harrymadeley4882]

Cloudy but warm in Manchester no sign of sunshine been the same since Sunday

[@milespostlethwaite1154]

Hot spell?? Here in West Cumbria there hasn’t been enough sun to make any hay.

[@Richardssong18]

I live in northeast england we have had 3 or 4 days of warm to very warm weather. Now its forecast to be cool and wet. Wish we had a few weeks of sustanined sunny and very warm tenpetatures. I hope july is hot 🔥

[@paulasmith7256]

There is supposed to be a yellow alert for heat for the majority of England. No idea where this information is coming from as it’s not on the Met Office web pages - any ideas where this information is coming from? Thanks

[@metoffice]

There is no Met Office severe weather warning for the heat. That’s why you won’t find it in any weather forecasts or on the web pages. The UK Health Security Agency have issued a heat health alert, which is aimed at health and social care professionals so they can prepare for an increase in demand that often happens as a result of hot weather. The Met Office do issue extreme heat warnings when prolonged and exceptional heat is likely to adversely impact the public. This week is not hot enough and the heat doesn’t last for long enough to justify an extreme heat warning.

[@paulasmith7256]

@@metoffice thank you, makes sense now 👍

[@SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Tbh it’s been a pleasant few sunny days of summer I just wish my house would be cooler in the summer months.

[@johnwelbourn3811]

Thanks Aiden, at least there's no thunderstorm after our 3 fine days.

[@user-qu4yf3tl6n]

Yeah it's cooling down that's the correct answer

[@MegaDeano1963]

How are all these tempretures averaged , are the weighted in any way . Great info

[@louisabicham-wk2fb]

Ya cooler at last

[@memofromessex]

I just want to know whether it's investing in another pair of shorts.

[@paulmarkman5247]

Excellent presentation, as ever, Aidan. Often you and your colleagues talk about the jetstream ‘spinning up’ an area of low pressure, so intensifying things. I am sure you have covered this before (but have no idea how to find), but I’d greatly value another explainer on what is actually going on there such that those high level winds result in the generation of more cloud and rain. What is the jetstream doing such that the pressure drops further? Always essential viewing - please do keep it up. Many thanks - Paul

[@metoffice]

Thank you Paul. Alex explained very effectively how this works in a previous Deep Dive and you can probably find this video if you search 'Deep Dive 11/07/2023 - Jet stream special - Met Office Weather Forecast'. His explanation starts from 18:00 mins. But it's a reminder to cover it again because it helps explain why and how the UK experiences low pressure, especially in the autumn and winter.

[@paulmarkman5247]

@@metoffice Many thanks for the reminder of where the previous discussion took place. I will certainly rewatch that. But I also agree it’s something worth going over again for the uninitiated, and people like me who can’t retain enough information 😄

[@grego3150]

I find it fascinating how you can spend 20 minutes saying anything can happen with the weather.....great work👍

[@ukmedical4206]

Where’s the hot spell? Must still be in the cauldron with all our hopes and dreams

[@chrisa9043]

We will see what happens.

[@mickeyfilmer5551]

Thanks Alex. Next week, from the 2nd of July is the Llangollen International Musical Eisteddfod. Can you give the team, a Ball park Idea of the weather please? (I know it's a long shot having just watched the deep dive, but it would be appreciated) Many thanks in advance if you can.

[@kateeast7352]

What happened to Flaming June as we used to be called it.

[@cmplays3467]

can you explain more inadept about the north Atlantic oscillation?

[@sukilui33]

Just waiting for the temperature in the South at the end of the week but getting a whole science lesson instead. Just give us the damn temperatures.

[@ud9hh]

i like the deep dive

[@tymc2564]

A very cloudy day in the northeast today ☹️

[@mikebeattie976]

Was there a hot spell ? I must have missed it, the only place it’s ever hot in England is in the south east

[@gordonanderson8658]

Hi Aidan, when you run the computer models many times what variables are changed and are there standard parameter sets used every time or are that varied. Thanks in advance G

[@sollyolly9547]

5:16. "Slither" and "sliver" are different words...1/10, must do better boy! ;) It's increasingly common, if that helps. But they are different words with different meanings.

[@steventhomas5378]

Well I like to know what about July then 😅😢

[@SteveEvans87]

Superb forecast detail. Thank you

[@pillred5974]

Only 24 hours ago the weather was set fair for 10 days, what happened?

[@garyvisick1409]

How come its 22 degrees in Plymouth at 0930 today but will only reach a maximum of 23 this afternoon with sunshine all day?

[@metoffice]

The breeze in Plymouth has picked up this afternoon and that breeze comes from the sea so it has a moderating effect on temperature

[@Hugh-nr5sx]

We had quite a deep Low for the time of year a few weeks ago centred over Iceland. The Jet Stream seems to be getting busy early this year and I wonder if this is tied in with the rapid switch from El Nino to La Nina.? Perhaps we could be in for a blustery July as happened a few years ago.?

[@metoffice]

The 'return of the westerlies' is a well known-phenomenon whereby the jet stream becomes a bit more active again during July and August after a lull in activity May to June. This doesn't always mean more unsettled weather for the UK - it depends on where the jet ends up - but it's one of the reasons August is the wettest summer month followed by July with June being the driest.

[@katrinaryan1739]

Thank you Aiden for the detailed forecast 💜

[@fredgiles5768]

Great British Summer 😂😂😂

[@geraldthomas8948]

Haydon's Uncertainty principles. Always a lot of uncertainty.

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

This whole forcast could be sum up in a few words and that is summer has gone untill September

[@ianpetherick4326]

Dont need any rain sick of it warm dry weather more of please

[@davedree]

Well done to this presentation buddy, that takes some doing with the Interactive Screen, 5* for clarifying it's a HOT spell not a heatwave, too!

[@sylviasinclair9462]

Do volcanoes affect our weather in Iceland

[@deanevans5346]

In other words..take a guess

[@richatgreenday]

If we get to 35 degrees this summer or heatwave will the reds be closer to black on your heat charts

[@JW_M]

Give us more heat pretty please 🥺 🤣

[@jackchapman5052]

What are red colours for the hot weather?

[@jamesblundell4616]

Hurry up the dark nights frost and snow ❤

[@HarleyNavi]

Will it rain n will the heat go away

[@invicta4165]

Well that’s 21 minutes of my life that l won’t get back. A forecast that could have been delivered in half the time.

[@jaynedavis4667]

Bloody hell if I took a drink every time these weather men said Scotland I would be under the table, is there no weather anywhere else?

[@metoffice]

Believe me, we get just as many complaints about ignoring Scotland as we do about focussing on Scotland. Often - especially during the next week or so - parts of Scotland will experience one type of weather whilst the rest of the UK will experience another type of weather. That's why you'll hear phrases like 'Blustery showers for Scotland, mostly fine elsewhere'. It's a way of efficiently summarising the UK's weather - divide the country up into regions of similar weather and describe the weather in each of those regions. But we will also pay particular attention to the most significant or impactful weather - in the case of Wednesday's heat, that's southeast England and in the case of Thursday morning's showers, that's northeast Scotland.

[@suegriffiths5365]

It's usually all in the South - makes a nice change

[@davidtresarden9069]

Just think,if Scotland went independent we wouldn't get the Scotland weather forecast or the football results!

[@Hugh-nr5sx]

@@metoffice .. and don't forget the extreme south-east.! Why the Met Office or more especially BBC have phobias about using phrases like East Coast or Kent Coast is beyond me.. Kent and western Scotland often have different weather to the bulk of the country.

[@Hugh-nr5sx]

@@davidtresarden9069 I've always found it odd that forecasters almost completely ignore the Republic when a lot of the weather for the North and Midlands works its way in from that direction..

[@cymaz100]

I do like a deep dive…my wife thinks so

[@jamesburne3893]

I wonder who does pull the strings with the weather. Who decides what they will tell us.

[@manuelabrown843]

The main word is always “uncertainty” So why do we need a forecast at all?

[@metoffice]

Yes, of course, there is inevitably a degree of uncertainty when attempting to predict the future. If there was no weather forecast at all, we'd have no idea whether we'd see 40C temperatures an unseasonal frost next Monday. With the forecast, even with the inherent uncertainty, we can talk about the probability of various scenarios and people can then see that it's vanishingly unlikely that we'll have 40C or unseasonal frost for the first day of July and that westerlies with some cloud and showery rain in places is most likely - even if it's not guaranteed, that information can be very useful for people.

[@willyrussell3867]

They have lots of practice with words don't they lol

[@paulasmith7256]

@@manuelabrown843 there’s always some uncertainty because nature does what nature does best and doesn’t tell us first. At least they don’t tell us it’s ‘cloudy with a chance of meatballs’

[@billiondollarman3847]

I can Fry a Egg on my window 😎🔥🌡🍳🌞

[@AlastairCampbell-ed3rr]

Great discovery for forecasters the jetstream blame everything on something that can't be seen.

[@paulbrozyna3006]

You clearly find rational thought to be something of a challenge don’t you?

[@jamespattenden605]

Why the hell do you need to nake a video about a few days of lovely weather, let us just enjoy it, Oh in case you need to ge reminded we get hot and cooler days in summer it us called weather,

[@tracyvale9011]

Booooooooo

[@truth3358]

Your wrong I was in north wales and it was only 14 Too long just to tell you about the weather So easy to fall asleep YAWNING

[@user-sc8dh4vn4v]

Just to summarise you ain't got a clue what's going to happen 🤠

[@Mykst]

There's a reason why he is a meteorologist and you aren't. You don't understand how forecasts work at all.

[@glabrouswashere8078]

Just to summarise, you weren’t listening, we’re you? Maybe rewind and have another go? Ask if you need help.