Democratic Russia without Chechnya, why people hate America, stalemate in Ukraine - Fareed Zakaria

My guest today is Fareed Zakaria, one of the most influential political analysts and an expert in international relations. He hosts a CNN program, a column for The Washington Post, and also was a columnist for Newsweek and editor-in-chief of Time. We talked about whether developing countries will become liberal, why people hate America, what Russia would be like without the Chechen war and Putin, and what it will be like after the war in Ukraine. For Russian voiceover follow / @zygaro
00:00 Putin's invasion of Ukraine strengthened the liberal world. Putin's invasion of Ukraine also had a huge impact on the creation of the Ukrainian nation. The father of Ukrainian nationalism is Vladimir Putin.
4:49 The rise in the share of China, India, Brazil and Turkey in world GDP is changing the whole character of the international system. 20 years ago, the US did whatever it wanted. Europe, USA, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia - they account for about 65% of the world economy and 80% of world defense spending.
7:55 Putin is popular because in Brazil, Africa, South Asia and Latin America, he is seen as a leader who can stand up to America. Why do they hate America so much? In remote parts of the United States, people also believe that every New Yorker or Washington resident is part of a larger conspiracy. And in Russia: Moscow is in the center, which forms conspiracy theories.
17:38 In the Western world, there was at first rivalry between the king and the aristocrats. This led to a separation of powers. The rivalry between the king and the church - to the Reformation. What happened in the rest of the world?
19:20 Imagine that only two things have changed in Russia. First, Yeltsin did not react the way he did to the war in Chechnya. He could say, “Do you want to be independent? Walk with God!" Secondly, that one of the four previous prime ministers would become president. Putin was not Yeltsin's first choice. First there was Chernomyrdin, then Primakov, then Kiriyenko.
22:46 In 1999, when Putin came to power, civil society in Russia was the strongest among the new democracies. However, Putin decided to kill him.
24:50 Russia after Putin: From a cultural point of view, there is a very powerful idea of ​​its unity. But I do believe that it needs to be managed in a completely different, more decentralized way. If you run such a large country from one city, the amount of power that needs to be concentrated in one hand is too much, and people in the regions have absolutely no influence on their own future. It is necessary that the Russians could feel like citizens of their country, part of a common enterprise.
26:59 The curse of Putin's war: I don't see a scenario for a quick end. I think the most likely option is that all this will lead to a stalemate. Attacks on power plants to deprive people of light and heat, strikes on residential areas in an attempt to drive the civilian population into a state of fear. All this they are very staunchly resist. But they will not be able to recapture the entire Donbass or Crimea. There are parts of Ukraine that are pro-Russian, Russian speakers. In these regions, some people believe that the Ukrainian government treated them badly. This is being inflated by the Russian media, but the truth is that such areas do exist in Donbas and Crimea. The Russians will be able to keep these regions. There will be a hopeless situation. Russia will be isolated from the world economy for a long time.
31:17 Nuclear weapons: Putin's FSB is his own communist party, an institutional control mechanism. I hope that there are procedures in the army related to the control of the use of nuclear weapons. But we know too little. And what is known is frightening.
33:50 The CIA predicted war in Ukraine, can they do the same to prevent a nuclear war? Putin will not use nuclear weapons because he weighs costs and gains. In the case of Ukraine, he miscalculated. When he did this before, the costs were small and the acquisitions meant a lot: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Syria, Ukraine in 2014. Conventional bombing can do as much damage as tactical nuclear weapons. But the image of the use of nuclear weapons ... China, India, Brazil, South Africa will break off relations with him.
37:51 Post-Putin peace. First, Putin should not get away with it, it will destroy the foundation of the world order that was created after 1945. Aggression should not be rewarded. Secondly, it is necessary to find a way to take into account national interests. Putin as a person exists separately from Russia as a country. We must strive to find a place for Russia in the liberal Western world order, because it has potential.

[@kkpenney444]

These are just extraordinary interviews. So valuable. Thank you.

[@ifsantin]

Thanks for this brilliant talk! Fareed Zakaria amazes with his profound knowledge of the modern Russian history. Hopefully, some of his gloomy predictions won't come true and Ukraine and Russia will be able to make peace - with restoring the borders of 1991, of course. Coming from Crimea, I don't remember any discriminations against the Russian language or anything of this kind. On the contrast, since the annexation of the peninsula in 2014 Ukrainian has been banned, even though a great number of Crimeans, myself included, are ethnical Ukrainians. Now the local authorities have gone so far as to forbid people to listen to Ukrainian music. I believe that those Crimeans who are supporting Russia now will change their mind as soon as Russian state TV channels with their poisonous aggresive propaganda stop broadcasting there.

[@pynn1000]

I had no idea of the ban on Ukrainian music. Heard of other bans and restrictions, e.g. 1876 banned in all open print after an earlier ban on most books.

[@happydays4302]

Thank you for posting this, very informative. I can't see peace until 1991 borders are restored. A number of people belive crimea will be easier militarily to get back than the parts of Dombas taken. Time will tell. Good luck. 🍀

[@RobBCactive]

Yes, I have heard interviews from people targeted by the RF authorities forced to flee. The historical arguments about Crimea tend to ignore that it was an autonomous republic populated by Tatars, which in 1944 was ethnically cleansed by Stalin. There is a tendency in the US and Germany to ignore the colonial nature of RF claims, they tend to confuse Russia with the USSR. The people forgotten are the indigenous ones, including the Slavic ones, who were made serfs and kept from independence by Polish & Muskovite empires.

[@peterundo8380]

What about the language law the zelensky government enacted in early 2022? This law discriminates against speaking and writing Russian in Ukraine. Does a 'democratic' state do that?

[@eliseyuw]

@@peterundo8380you should do more research into it first

[@mariekondrateva7583]

Thank you so much for this edition. I start to watch English KZbin wit your programs🙏🏼

[@stevenweiss2575]

I really like these interviews, and wonder why they don't get more attention.

[@tanyailoveny1176]

Because normal people don't wanna listen those haters who want to destroy our motherland. Only far left liberalas go for it. Generation Z .

[@kemitchell]

Mikhail, you prompts here were on a higher level than previous interviews for this channel, both substantively and linguistically. Congratulations!

[@TheStringBreaker]

*Phenomenal interview! Excellent insights from Fareed Zakaria as always!*

[@kjetilsandvik3237]

Brilliant selection of interviewees.

[@ludmilaturkova1274]

Good move! Fareed is one One of most influential analysts and journalists with the World outlook

[@nataliacziganj6598]

Brilliant insights into the current international situation.

[@eugenehalak]

Thank you 🤝

[@bjohnson1085]

Excellent Interview. Keep up the good work

[@RobBCactive]

Fareed, NATO and the EU have rules, ones the RF under Yeltsin and then Putin had no interest in fulfilling. A whole new founding treaty defining security cooperation with the RF was made to accommodate their stated wish to be more than a guest, they chose to denounce that. But you know why, Moscow doesn't want to be constrained by rules. They seek to coerce and dominate the region, while monetising the massive corruption that follows to ignoring just law and rules.

[@oladmitrieva8793]

Excellent observation

[@ldhorricks]

I've been saying this for years

[@pynn1000]

Putin - "Father of Ukrainian nationalism" joke made me uncomfortable, even queasy, but I have covid. Don't understand why President Zelensky laughed. Was there more to this conversation? The written stuff (as in many youtube videos) seemed a bit more rational.(Edited mainly to correct quote - written when feverish.)

[@lenas6246]

the title is basically "tell me you dont know ukrainian history without telling me". Ukrainian nation building is very old. As a russian (or farnkly as anyone else) he shouldt use even for click bait, it fucking annoying

[@alacazaba]

One of the Russian 'near siloviki' made that same observation on a popular Ruzzian tv show at the outset of the Ruzzian invasion of Ukraine when it all went horribly wrong for Moscow. The tv show guest, Karen Shakhnazarov, was pointing out the fact that since Ruzzia had not smashed the ukrainians thoroughly, it was giving Ukrainians a sense of national pride. Of course the Ruzzians all called for harsher action on the show, no doubt that some of the Ukrainian leadership were appraised of this from their intelligence monitoring services. My guess that's partly why VZ laughed, because the irony that even in the Western media, they echoed the same sentiment, how seriously backwards Russian strategy was, and the cruel absurdity of it all.

[@LizaSoldatova]

Да, классное интервью. Интересно послушать человека с перспективой не только европоцентричной

[@frodesonerud2789]

People who speak so much truth and facts should really be challanged by someone with knowledge and understanding of other perspectives.

[@micumatrix]

New CNN-US tour? Zakaria is the main philosoph about actual politics at CNN. With him You could talk about everything.

[@ChrisHaenze]

I have been watching your videos for a few months now, and I appreciate your courage in being an independent voice in Russian media and criticising Putin's regime. I enjoyed this interview in general, but one issue that I had is that your conversation continued to perpetuate the narrative that what's most important is for Russia to liberalise, become democratic and repair relations with the West, without saying anything about making an attempt to reconcile and make amends with Ukraine and Russia's other neighbors, which include my homeland of Poland. As evil as Putin is, he is simply continuing a centuries-long pattern of Russian aggression and imperialism towards other countries in the region. If Russia is to rejoin the international community, then that cycle has to be broken. I hope that people of good faith such as yourself can contribute to that.

[@galynaprylutska6253]

It could be that Yeltsin let Chechnya go, but it won't change the history in the European part. As for Chernomyrdin, he obvioously won't poison and kill people, but as for military aggression, it might happen as well, because it's not about a personality but about ressentiment and nostalgy of the nation.

[@toguchina6159]

Big not surely means great. Russia thinks it is great now, but it is not. Russians should rethink what do they choose to proud of, and take responsibility for that choice.

[@Paulus8765]

By letting Russia keep Crimea, Donbas and Abkhazia, you'd be rewarding aggression.

[@Namuchat]

Imagine that there would be a referendum on these territories among the Russian people and the respective populations. Would you respect the outcome?

[@Paulus8765]

@@Namuchat I don't think the Russian people as a whole need to be asked. If a man steals my bicycle, should I ask him if he wants to keep it? As regards "the respective populations", it depends what you mean. In the case of Crimea, my understanding is that the Russians removed every last inhabitant & replaced them mostly with Russians. To hold a referendum now would feel like cheating. I think Crimean Tatars should have a big say in what happens to Crimea, and perhaps the Ukrainians should say this more loudly.

[@Namuchat]

@@Paulus8765 So it depends on what you mean by "Keep Crimea, Donbass and Abkhazia". These are not personal bicycles, but territories shared by moving animals aka human beings. People can get along with each other, and if political issues don't matter - so be it for the good of everybody. But if one wants to know who represents public order and where the political authority is located, many indications point to the "status quo" or, less euphemistically, to a "frozen conflict". If everyone could agree on sharing bikes as long as you bring them back to a sharing point, they should try this model.

[@robertorovida2108]

Fareed Zakaria talked about a "stalemate" situation. A stalemate is actually an immediate draw in chess, nothing else to fight for anymore: game over! The current situation seems rather a repetition of moves that is not recognized as a draw by ignorant players and stupid referees.

[@zetristan4525]

5:02 America is retweeting

[@Namuchat]

The dramaturgical problem with Russia becoming a member of NATO is and would have been: NATO could not propose membership to Russia without offering it to Ukraine. That is precisely the moment - which lasts for a very long time and maybe will continue to last - in which we are stuck.

[@kikimiki5156]

Fareed is an great guy but in russia top power leaders have medieval mentality , russia was a village at the start and is a mentality of endless wars of conquest

[@svetlanaburdina629]

People, who didn't accept Russian invasion had to leave their homes in 2014 in both Donbass and Crimea (like I did). When Ukraine wins its own territories back, those people, who are brainwashed by Russia, are free to leave for Russia or shut up (as many pro-ukrainian people had to do in the occupied territories, which they couldn't leave for valid reasons). They can love Russia, but as long as they are not armed or not surrounded by the so called "green men", they pose no threat.

[@Namuchat]

You contradict the 2nd law of thermodynamics! You assume that the smaller and more dependent country is and will always be more virtuous than the larger. Ukrainians show a tremendous amount of moral and physical strength, but I don't think they will bend the laws of Mother Nature.

[@boardcertifiable]

If I learned anything from the Civil War my country went through, fixing the wrong is a process that could take decades. But with grit it can be done, but there will always be those crazies who look to cause problems and who hold to old grievances.

[@Cezve_340ml]

What i really dislike is this top to bottom view to some smaller countries whether the talk is about their global share in economics or in culture (which is a very very subjective one!). Unfortunately, your guest repeated this narrative on and on throughout the interview.

[@Namuchat]

Quote: Russia is a very warm country.

[@MissAnastasiyaD]

It was all nice until Fareed started talking about russian speaking regions of Ukraine and how government didn't let then speak russian🙄 It's quite fascinating how people as smart as Fareed can be so stupid saying stuff like that. Very sad.

[@lenas6246]

because obviosly being a random journalist qualifies you to speak about things you know nothing about. Zygar is spreading baity disinformation

[@stevenweiss2575]

He said Russia exxagerates this. And, ignoring for the moment the high numbers if people who left the Donbass between 2014 and 2022, it is hard to imagine that any significant majority of people in the Russian occupied area would support Ukraine retaking the territory. With Crimea, it's different because they have not suffered 8 years if war and exodus, but again, would the residents simply welcome the Ukrainian army, like the remaining residents of Kherson?

[@MissAnastasiyaD]

@@stevenweiss2575 The point I was trying to make was that Fareed, being obviously a smart person, just sits there and repeats Russian propaganda with a straight face. And that is just very sad.

[@galynaprylutska6253]

Absolutely. Ukrainians are sick and tired of this bulshit about Russian speaking regions. Let him come to a 'Russian speaking region' , not a big city but a town or any village, he'll learn that 80% of population are Ukrainian speaking or were born and grown up Ukrainian speaking ublntil they were made to start speaking Russian at the Soviet times, that's first. So for most of the population, it's a return to their roots, which are just in the 1st or the 2nd generation, the furthest - in the 3rd generation. It's not about any government, it's a cocensus in the society: more than 80% agree that the official language in Ukraine must be Ukrainian only. And the second thing, it's just a bulshit about any forms of discrimination of Russian. Really sick and tired of this stuff in the brains of 'experts' who just don't know and don't understand the reality but are constantly bringing out false arguments they have no clue about.

[@yokof2202]

Agree🙄

[@sapirIL_UKR]

He knows russia, again same mistake. He means moscow instead. What about fascism? He saw how democratic it was before putin but russians themselves didn’t care about it. Yes it’s forever doomed.

[@RobBCactive]

Fareed Zakaria chooses the word "father" poorly denying Ukraine its long history. Saying Vladolf Putin has stimulated the recognition of Ukraine and united Ukrainians as a nation is fair comment. But Vladolf could not create what did not exist, a people with a language and culture. In the 1991 referendum every region of Ukraine including Crimea voted for independence from the USSR. The post Rus Ukrainians have never had aggressive military and political power, they were ruled as was most of Europe by imperial families. What has happened is a Muscovite empire, coercively colonised the lands and suppressed a Ukrainian state. Much of the Russification occurred under 20th century communism, particularly Stalin.

[@alacazaba]

I can agree with a good bit of the well apportioned reasoning in FZ's view of the world, a liberal world in an Adam Smith, 19th century understanding of liberalism, with modern humanitarian sensibilities is entirely a world within which I would want to live. There's a shortcoming, however, in folding the political fray surrounding a contested election as somehow being in opposition to a liberal world order. If anything, the ability to petition one's government is key to liberalism, Trump had every right to appeal to legislators and utilize legal processes that would resolve perceived wrongdoing. FZ's approach to the matter is a simplistic way to address a deeper issue, and it feeds into a hyperbolic approach to dealing with political differentiation. It makes impossible an open dialogue, instead it makes it partisan, and partisinism is entirely anti-liberal. FZ has never been able to escape his left leaning instincts, he needs to disabuse himself of that, otherwise he risks having his worldview seen as jaundiced and not instructive.

[@joshuapaul2022]

Sure. Meanwhile in real life the war is lost by Ukraine . Half of Ukraine has a blackout and winter hasn't even started. Even according to extremely pro-ukrainian Ursula von der Leyen (president of the European Commission) Ukraine lost more than 100 000 soldiers only KIA (real figures are more than 160 000 KIA and more than 255 000 WIA). Zelenskyy regime banned marking of soldiers' graves with Ukrainian flags. Endless forests of flags at cemeteries across Ukraine proved to be too demoralizing and scary for those still desperately trying to escape forced conscription (which is tantamount to a certain death).

[@LoliLikesPedobear]

Sources. Nuance. Pootin is employing terrorist tactics to bomb Ukrainians into 19 century - this is truth. Frequent blackouts and disruption of infrastructure - truth. But I have friends and family in Ukraine, many moved out of cities back into summer houses with wooden heating or private generators, many just buckled up and stick up middle finger towards our Z-patriots and taunt to bring it on. Do you think the war is lost the instant your lights go off, my sweet summer westerner? You don’t know our peoples then. The war is only lost when it’s signed or when the territory is captured and there is no other counteroffensive coming. And Russian army has more casualties due to poor logistics and morale and simple fact they fight in enemy territory where supportive babushkas could be poisoning your pies and whatever you manage to take or buy. Everything you’ve described, but multitudes worse is happening in Russia. This war IS disaster and Ukraine is not advancing fast enough to look like decisively winning side, but it’s far from over.

[@joshuapaul2022]

@@LoliLikesPedobear You are still in a state of denial. These are catastrophic losses for Ukraine. Russians don't waste their people defending undefendable positions like Ukraine. They are in the business of destroying Ukrainian army and they accomplished a lot. In Bakmut Ukraine lost high ground in the area and there is a high risk of encirclement. According to Ukrainian sources Russians have overwhelming advantage in artillery 1:9 on this front. There is no military sense to hold on to it, but due to political reasons Ukraine is constantly throwing additional reserves into this meatgrinder.

[@LoliLikesPedobear]

@@joshuapaul2022 I am in a state of Russia, watching male neighbors getting harassed by military office and ultimately fleeing or hiding to evade the meat grinder. I know saboteurs. Morale is low. On the other side morale is higher despite horrible struggles. You try to pull reason on us from your distant land - or, perhaps, from Prigozhin’s farm? ;) - but there’s little reason beyond Ukrainians being infuriated and absolutely refusing to join back the prison of the nations. Have a great comment-trolling day. Your English is quite good, I hope you’re just one usеful idiоt

[@igorsmerdov6804]

такое впечатление, что Захарка вообще уже по рукам пошла, дает интервью, кому попало. Он вопрос не может задать без грамматических ошибок, ну ладно бы за деньги где-нибудь в богатой автократии, а то черт знает кому...

[@ldhorricks]

what on earth are you talking about?