Demographics Part 3: The Xer Cut

[@mignonowens2350]

We are boomers with four adult children. Our strategy is pooling our resources with their labor, their children with shared childcare. We own a small farm and , during the high season, our kids work the farm as an extra job. My husband I are going to work until we drop. This is the old way. If you can swing it, it works. Our family harmony and commitment is unusual. Inter generational living used to be the norm. It works for us. The resilience of the extended family means no one goes it alone or falls through the cracks.

[@omicron6513]

I'm envious of your family harmony. As a millenial I was told to live on my own at age 18, going into an unaffordable housing and job market. So instead securing my own future and that of my family, I guess I'm paying into my landlord boomer's retirement...

[@kennethrobinson7647]

@@omicron6513there are other ways of making money besides working for someone else. Do your own thing, make your own path, while you still can. Words from an aging Xer.

[@bradyjeez]

God bless you for being the grandparents your generation categorically refused to be. Thank you so much for this, your grandchildren have no idea how lucky you are. Best of luck, you guys are saints.

[@laszlozoltan5021]

@@kennethrobinson7647 it is a mistake to assume others can even see such a path much less walk it. Perhaps the irony will dawn on you in another life....

[@renaissance17]

This is great. Working until old age will also keep your body in shape and healthy, believe it or not. Regarding 'intergenerational living' it's really modern western women who despise it the most. A family can save $20k a year by living with the older relatives but most women demand that a man has his own home, white picket fence, fur babies, and of course, a luxurious tub for her to relish in with her wine.

[@regolith1350]

Peter Zeihan's "Demographics & Geography" approach is such an insightful eye-opener. It just cuts through so much BS and makes most other pundits, analysts, and prognosticators sound like New Age charlatans and snake oil salesmen.

[@equalmc276]

He basically just assumes that the only possible alternative to endless unsustainable growth is a dystopian hellscape.

[@obcane3072]

Not a dystopian hellscape, but a return to 19th century politics and economic policies. What's your alternative?

[@TheSulross]

his basic message on the demographic issue is that up to now nonadvanced, industrial nation has had to face collapsing capital generation (broght on by more people in retirement bracket than viable workforce bracket), and so there does not exist an economic model per se for how to make that work. What happens as a result of that economic/demographic reality is anyone's guess - but already we are seeing a massive de-industrialization of Europe set in - much accelerated by the sanctions the EU tried to level on the Russian Federation and that have massively boomeranged and done far more permanent damage to all of Europe - but especially starting with Germany. Germany cannot sustain a competitive industrial economy without access to the cheap, pipeline natural gas that Russia was supplying to it. And so the EU is de-industrializing - demographics would have brought this on, but the consequences of the backfiring sanctions sped up the process by years.

[@PaulVerhoeven2]

He actually produces more BS to appeal to the audience and sell books. For example, he does not go into details of the population (for example, iq distribution) other than by age. Well, boomers who are dying and millenials are two VERY VERY different populations.

[@obcane3072]

@@TheSulross If Germany didn't participate in the sanctions they would have had to still deal with Russian aggression but this possibly as a NATO defense of Poland or a Russian take over of Poland. They're dependence on Russia was always a mistake and they sound have diversified their portfolio years ago.

[@jacobwinn2765]

Aussies REALLY don’t like not being mentioned eh, particularly when NZ is! Proud Kiwi dad of 4 awesome kids here.

[@andrewupson2987]

Australian. Easily forgotten since it’s a land entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are use to having people not trust them as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you!

[@brendanh8193]

Lol. I really don't understand why Peter doesn't mention the Aussies when he mentions New Zealand. If you look at their demographic graphs, they are pretty much the same. Both primarily use youth immigration (usually via their education systems) to bolster their population growth (producing bulges around 30-35) and have a smaller next generation bulge (8-15). PS I am a dual citizen.

[@scarrollnz]

As a Kiwi, I think Aussie has more options overall. But it only takes a government like we've had to retard the good work done. Things in nz's favour are smaller government (no state vs federal), smaller country. In Aussies favour, more mining, defensive, manufacturing options will come back eventually. Both are great!

[@dorothytolman7297]

Loving the series and all of your work. I never thought I would say this but I am now actually interested in Geopolitics because of you.

[@arranadams2776]

This has been a great series and really has helped me better understand economics on a much larger scale - Happy New Year - May 2023 be prosperous, joyful and filled with happiness and adventures

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Be careful. Pete offers us a frame on economics (and by extension geopolitics) that is super useful. But he’s not the be all or end all of Econ. He makes predictions (sometimes bold predictions) that I find thought provoking, but he’s not a prophet. Sometimes he glosses over things quickly (understandable given the format) that bear further examination or study. Anyway, all the best to you and yours this season and this coming year.

[@arranadams2776]

You are very much correct regarding Peter’s overview, assumptions and predictions. Having just completed my graduate level economics course, I understand the need to further investigate. Peter just puts the information in a digestible and interesting morsels to ponder. All the best to you and yours. Arran

[@harrykent2578]

HK from NZ. I've been studying NZ population stats for a while and I have a couple of points to introduce. The reality of NZ's age related demographic trends are just as they are for other modern countries in that the Pakeha population (descendants of European settlers) has already reached a reverse pyramid shape, this includes in the wealthy rural areas, where birth rates as low as anywhere else in the country. Where we do have population growth is in our Maori and Pacifika populations... at present while these populations only total around 20% of the total population, over 40% of all children born in NZ are either Maori or Pacifika, and the majority of those are Maori. Of note, each of these populations suffer from very high levels of deprivation and also from a lack of upward mobility socially speaking. In that context, what we are seeing for these populations in terms of population grow is just what you'd expect from poorer population groups around the world. One area where our Maori and Pacifika populations differ somewhat however, is that Maori population growth is occurring in more rural areas, while Pacifica population grow is occurring primarily in Auckland, our largest city. A consequence of this will be that by 2050 over half of all NZers will be of Maori decent. The other area of population growth in from immigration, and that tends to be into Auckland and is trending more and more toward immigration from Asian nations.

[@robman2095]

This will unfortunately just result in those pakeha who don't like these developments being more likely to move to Australia and take their skills and money with them. NZ government policy already allegedly discriminates on race in a similar way to that which the Australians have recently rejected in a referendum.

[@MrBogus213]

This is incredibly enlightening and informative. Very clearly explained and the presentation is top notch.

[@user-jd1sv1io4p]

Great analysis. It's always interesting hearing the daily dose of ,PZ. It's entertaining and informative.

[@danrieke9988]

Peter, thanks for your constant view of Earth from your viewpoint. It helps keep me extroverted on the overall scene. Really appreciate you, man. You help more people stay sane than you know. And what better legacy is that in life?

[@paulawagstaff686]

Well Looking forward ... Happy New Year from New Zealand

[@cuspsoftheoverworld]

Remember, NZ is in a common economic space with Australia, with free trade, free movement and common standards agreements. A sort of mini EEC. Free movement is overwhelmingly to Australia. NZ is one of the largest sources of immigration to Australia.

[@sergeant64]

... Which makes NZ very export orientated. So when importers of NZ goods goes down, NZ will also be affected. *USA is a different ballgame.* They are _not_ export dependent and when they are its Mexico (that have a good consumer demographics). It seems that USA will again be the "engine" of world economics. They do not needs to invade, just do sanctions. I would say world is back to the pre 50:s

[@radiofreealbemuth8540]

Why are folks leaving NZ for Oz? I’ve heard nothing but great things about NZ. Cabin fever?

[@ROUNDtheWORLDis]

@@radiofreealbemuth8540 higher wages, lots of ppl go to Australia for work. You can earn about $10 an hr more as a nurse in Australia than NZ and you don’t need a visa or anything if you a kiwi so it’s very tempting

[@Richard_AKL]

@@radiofreealbemuth8540 NZ is a stepping stone for many to go to Australia. NZ is hideously expensive with poor pay and no competition

[@colostrumnewzealand]

@@radiofreealbemuth8540 better wages/ salaries in Aussie. Yes, inflation is high around the world at the moment, our cost of living has hugely increased and continues to

[@FlugHerr]

Excellent presentation Peter. I appreciate them.

[@logman72]

I'm a Gen Xer and have Baby Boomer parents. I had 3 kids so did my part. I'd love to be capital rich but I just put 2 kids through college.

[@elizabethclaiborne6461]

You need to be asking why state universities were free for a century, then turned into student loan black holes. Did you even know about that? Look into Land Grant Colleges. Best thing Abe Lincoln did was sign that.

[@MichaelDavis-cy4ok]

I've gone over college with my kids. We talk about trade school versus University, and what degrees are actually useful as opposed to debt traps. Most importantly, I told my kids I'm not going to pay for their higher education. My first is now in a mechanical engineering program and has scholarships to pay for everything. My second is looking at electrical engineering. The rest are looking at trades and engineering. What's given for free isn't generally appreciated and taken full advantage of (not talking about your kids; just generally).

[@joshualawson1579]

@@elizabethclaiborne6461 The Morrill Land Grant Act was indeed a remarkably important and strategic piece of legislation signed in the middle of the Civil War, but I don’t know if it was THE best thing he ever signed. I mean, there is the whole “freeing the slaves” part of his legacy.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@joshualawson1579 Not to mention keeping the United States intact. So maybe the land grant colleges are #3 at best.

[@voytekmiller4275]

@@elizabethclaiborne6461 You make a great point but something else happened a lot too. For a long time in America you had parents who were not swimming in cash but acted like they were. What I mean is there are tons of cases where parents could have saved a ton by sending their kids to a less expensive local university; however, they wanted little Billy or Sally to have "the college experience" of living farther away from home and paying for 4 years of them living in a dorm.

[@drsev61]

I'm working out in my yard while listening to this Demographic series. Really fascinating shit Peter. Thanks! On to Part 4!

[@futureshocked]

I think one thing Peter may not be considering is that The Gen Xers and Millenials will be co-partners in the office much more quickly. Like, Millenials aren't kids. I'm 41 now. So I think Millenials will be remembered as a generation with a delayed adolescence BUT an expedited 'elderhood'.

[@guest6398]

You mean they'll become elderly in their 50's? Maybe so. They're so sedentary, and many are obese.

[@spartancrown]

@@guest6398as a Gen X I can tell you many of my generation are also fatty meat sacks as well.

[@futureshocked]

@@guest6398 Dude I spent 12 years outside the US. Do you even understand that I consider nearly all of you fat?

[@guest6398]

@@spartancrown Were they that way in their teens and twenties, though? Seems like recent generations were never young and healthy to begin with. By the time they're twelve, they already have the diseases of middle age. Reportedly, the military is finding it impossible to find young people who meet minimal fitness standards.

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

@@guest6398 Millennials didn't play sports as kids much compared to Gen X. Gen X didn't get the internet until much later, usually around college age. That also means no social media growing up. The internet and social media destroyed the millennials. Lots of obesity, suffer from ungodly amounts of mental illness, are scared of everything and have zero desire to do anything in life. They basically gave up before even getting started. Not all of course, but way more than Gen X, drastically more.

[@HarcosokEtrendje]

Very insightful! Can’t wait to see part 4. I’m from Europe….

[@haroldcheeseburger]

Mr. Peter , looking fantastic , sounding terrific and feeling good.

[@rogerodle8750]

Merry Christmas Peter. Most enlightening.

[@jameswalker7899]

This is an informative series, much enjoyed. Thank you, sir. :)

[@allanjgray1]

Merry Yule to you from the UK, and thank's for all the videos.

[@no_more_free_nicks]

As a young programmer I was living in Germany, then relatively young in France, but I came back to Poland. I can confirm that there is this special sense of being "second class" in the air.

[@richardkammerer2814]

I had a few technical assignments in Western Europe in the 1980s and 1990s. For me, that arrogance and air of superiority diminished outside the city centers. I was glad when the program startups shifted stateside and to North America, and that experience was only a part time issue. Sorry to hear you were living that experience every day. I think I’d rather have been in jail.

[@atomicsmith]

Yes, it made me chuckle a few years ago when the French ambassador to the US said publicly: “Unlike the US, we don’t have racism in France.” My thought was: you’re racist against every other European in addition to Africans, middle easterners, Asian etc…

[@1queijocas]

@@atomicsmith if you hate everyone equally then you are not racist … just a big asshole. Which is a perfect description of France

[@atkkeqnfr]

The English, German and French still have their colonial arrogance. Poland is rising. The UK and Germany are falling. France might be ok. Maybe.

[@allanfifield8256]

@@atomicsmith The French ambassador must have not spent much time in France.

[@dgetzin]

The wood trim proportions in that corner are amazing.

[@richbuggy]

I hope you're planning to cover Australia.

[@dongeorge4037]

Thanks Peter, and Merry Christmas to you too. (PS, love the jacket.)

[@BPinney]

As a Millennial, "aging" might hit it more on the head than "maturing". :) Happy holidays from Des Moines.

[@omicron6513]

"Millenials maturing" has been Peter's running gag for years now. It's one of his go-to's for getting an audience laugh when talking demographics. The growing millenial segment of his audience doesn't find it funny, but it plays well with those older capital-rich gens that he usually presents to.

[@BPinney]

@@omicron6513 I'm not sure the goal of your comment. The joke and light hearted response are both pretty obvious.

[@omicron6513]

@@BPinney Agreed it's clearly meant to be humorous (I called it a 'gag'). Parent comment's goal was pointing out it is a recurring device in Peter's talks.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Ha! As a GenXer, I appreciate you and your ability to poke fun at yourself. Humor will get us through the next ten years. (In the eleventh year we will all lose our sense of humor and then we’ll be screwed.) And screw the Boomers. You know what they called themselves in the 70s? They called themselves “The Me Generation”, congratulating themselves for their childish self absorption. The point is that the Boomers have aged. They haven’t matured. And now they blame us for their failures. If that is not hysterically funny, I don’t know what is. 😂 😅😢 😭

[@BPinney]

@@MarcosElMalo2 you can't spell BooMEr without ME lol

[@juliand6317]

Watching this series I was keen to hear what you’d say about australia but haven’t seen it. Was surprised it wasn’t mentioned here. Would be curious to hear how Australia differs from New Zealand.

[@ricojsuave]

Finally reading "Disunited Nations" after having read "The End is Just the Beginning". Both are great reads and actually fun because Peter's personality shines through. I find that he is more apolitical in the books then on Twitter. Anyway, regardless of where he falls politically, he is a treasure for us all. I know he was subtely alluding to inflation in this video. I would be very curious to know more about what how he thinks the next 5-10 years will play out economically and particulary with investments. I bet he has a visionary portfolio. Infrastructure stocks?

[@bighands69]

I think he maybe a conservative but not a republican. It used to be that both the democratic party and republican party had conservatives in its ranks but that seems to really have declined. Today the parties are either hardcore activist socialists or nationalist focused party members.

[@ProfTricky3168]

I’d just listen to the audio books on KZbin

[@ProfTricky3168]

@@bighands69Bush conservative 100%

[@MichaelDavis-cy4ok]

My guess is infrastructure and commodities as well as some precious metals.

[@intractablemaskvpmGy]

He's got it all riding on tesla, twitter and raytheon

[@johnhooper6135]

Approx 670,000 New Zealand citizens live in Australia (close to 15 per cent of New Zealand's population) - mainly under 40 years of age, while there are around 70,000 Australians in New Zealand but these are mainly Retiro

[@Aegelis]

Great jacket and setting. Interesting times ahead, I can see the struggles of the millenials, both economic and social. There's great hope in social maturity, but perhaps less so economically without help. Hopefully social maturity leads to making friend with people of experience (such as their parents and work patrons), thereby improving their economic situation as well. Time will tell.

[@BruceC]

Merry Christmas and a joyous prosperous 2023 and thanks for the informative videos throughout the year

[@dogetaxes8893]

As an Australian it annoys me that the Kiwis who we’ve always looked at as a little brother are actually going to have the last laugh demographics wise 😂. First they beat us at Rugby now this.

[@ChrisG-qv3on]

I don't think New Zealand has a better pyramid than ours in aus, we have one of the most favourable in the world. And we have a massive immigration program

[@veronicamaine3813]

Our demographics are actually a little better 😉

[@markmorrisonmaui]

Yes, but your rugby team still sucks in Aus., so who really cares bout demographics.

[@p38blue]

hilarious ....but no worry the dynamic with Nz and oz is same same

[@TomorrowWeLive]

We don't. At least in Australia you have chance to save yourselves as a White country

[@karryhoward3946]

Thank you, have a great Jan. 2023

[@jeffScotty]

I mean, keep up being real, no mater what. I like you in any energy. I like your brilliance

[@Bigdletherneck]

Thank you for your insights on this. Look forward to the next episode.

[@ascotclark]

WHAT A BEAST!!! I'm drinking up all of Peter's videos and knowledge even quicker than he is slamming that eggnog! :D

[@scottolsen1964]

Peter keep these going... I am sharing with folks that need to hear about the strong demographic variable.

[@mrjumbly2338]

As a Gen Xer, I struggle to find Millennials that really want to do my job, Mid-level number crunching get the job done type of role. Not really sure where they are, my job is not necessarily glamorous but pretty important for the public. I hope a shift in tech jobs will steer some into different jobs. Just not so sure about many of them they seem kinds lost; I keep telling them there is lots of opportunities.

[@renavartio]

Always insightful. Thank you.

[@byrnespub]

As a Gen X-er (who didn't procreate BTW), I'm curious what this means for our retirement, especially Social Security and Medicare. Seems like if we can get through the painful hump of supporting the Boomers, Gen X stands to benefit as a small retired generation. We'll have all those Millenials working to support our SS and Medicare. I would think we might even see a nice surplus that would hopefully be saved to use for the incoming Millenial retirees 20 years later.

[@justinokraski3796]

Odds are we’d be using that time to pay back for the debt incurred to support the boomers

[@markpukey8]

Yup. SSI is a numbers game, pure and simple. You pay in when you're young, then take out more than you put in when you retire. It works because there are more younger workers putting in than old guys taking out. Once the disproportionate number of Boomers dies off, we GenX-ers will be easy for the younger workers to support. All the projections that SS will run out of money tend to ignore how fast the Boomers will die off, and how few of us Gen-X types will be taking their place taking money out of the system. It's a 10-20 year problem, then there will be surpluses again.

[@ricksanchez7459]

He glossed over it, the 20's into 30's will be rough. Higher inflation, lower production. Benefits don't mean anything if they're inflated into worthlessness and you can't get medical care from an empty hospital.

[@networkteacher1]

Keep in mind that 21% of the boomers died before the were eligible to claim SS. Another 12% die by the time they are 70, the mandatory age for claiming it. So, 1/3 of claimants already paid for part of the other 2/3. By the time age 78 happens, 50% are gone, and I don't have to tell you what happens by age 90. There are so few left that its a negligible number for whom SS is being paid. The real concern is that about now, Millennials have already had their babies. They are done. And so far, GenX isn't being especially reproductive. That is good news for robotics/automation and labor costs. That is terrible news for government revenues of all kinds.

[@Ikbeneengeit]

Looking forward to the next one

[@atikameg73]

As a gen Xer, I remember being treated with scorn by boomers as they held their "boots on my neck", with respect to career development (both overtly and covertly). I vowed to never treat the next generation like that. Now that I have worked my way into a leadership and decision-making position, I will always encourage, welcome, and smooth the way for the upcoming millenials. I know there are many millenials who have potential to be great leaders of tomorrow. And besides, there are so few of us Xers that we NEED millenials to mature quickly into important positions in society.

[@LordBari07]

This seems like the best solution. For so long the term "millennial" was synonymous with "young" that I think people would be shocked to learn that the oldest millennials are in their early 40s and, to my estimation, be close enough in experience to be fast-tracked into the decision making roles to fill that gap.

[@starcrib]

The boomers were/ are / the worst generation in 80 years. The "ME GENERATION" is filled with disgruntled vulgarian's, vipers, and shallow breath greed hoarders. They are insufferable . 🇺🇸🦖☄️

[@atikameg73]

@@starcrib I vowed to never treat the next generation the way they treated us!

[@atikameg73]

I just realize I repeated myself from my original comment. Put me in a home, already....lol

[@kannermw]

I completely disagree as I'm tail-end of baby boomers and don't consider myself either Boomer or gen X. All I can say is agism is alive in well with some gen X types but not all. Once you are highly compensated and above 45 you will start to have a target on your back even if you're most productive one in the group. Now there is reverse discrimination based on race and gender. If you are middle-aged white male with extensive work credentials you need not apply. Fortunately I landed with large organization who values those who have experience getting things done. I help mentor and coach younger gens and am more productive because I'm no longer distracted with the burden of dedicating time caring for kids. But in the eyes of some gen Xers there is perception that if your not balancing those conflicting priorities and caring for a family your needs for continued employment are somehow diminished which couldn't be further from the truth.

[@infantryblack]

Glad to see the jacket one more time. Happy New Year and Merry Christmas to all.

[@larrygerry985]

A correction to your video. As a NZer I can inform you that a large % immigrate to Australia and other places in their 20s. About 750k or 15 % of the population. So there are other structural issues in NZ

[@LoremIpsum1970]

...and for those with the family history getting to the UK is easy enough (though not the other way round).

[@larrygerry985]

@Lorem Ipsum that is not correct. NZ has a points system, so it is relatively easy to immigrate to NZ(from the UK) depending on your career, age etc. Also, Nz and UK citizens can go to each other countries via a working holiday visa. Ancestory visa only extends this from 2 to 4 years.

[@LoremIpsum1970]

@@larrygerry985 Ancestry visa is far easier than going thought the points system -- my cousins kids have just done it. It's not correct to say they're comparable. The points system also has an age limit cap, unless you're loaded. Everyone I know who emigrated to NZ have returned to the UK as it's too expensive now.

[@ycc7744]

NZ is migrant friendly and most assimilate well so lots of things to work with

[@larrygerry985]

@Lorem Ipsum point is more that it is not that hard.

[@scottcolpitts8521]

Looking forward to the next episode.

[@1122slickliverpool]

It's always interesting to hear Peter's optimist towards millennials having children. Like he just ASSUMES we're going to have a birth rate above 2.1. I'm not going to get into a political, economic or cultural debate with anyone in the comment section. However, its hard for me to see it in the data or anecdotally. :-) Happy Holidays everyone!

[@macdoug1234]

Yeah, I noticed that. I have 7 millennial children and zero grandchildren as yet. The oldest is 35. They have only a few friends who have children, but the horror experience of that stops them all from having a second child. I would say it's going to be the tiniest generation of them all

[@TampaDave]

@@macdoug1234 Then we're almost as screwed as everybody else.

[@freedomrocks7821]

Merry Christmas Peter. And, thanks for the informative video.

[@englishcoach7772]

Excellent observations and conclusive concepts. I love your content.

[@Leftatalbuquerque]

I'm the leading edge of Canadian X-ers. Too young to see Jaws, Star Wars and Saturday Night Fever on our own, was taken to see Grease, but was old enough to see Flashdance and Footloose with my own money. I caught the tail end of Disco, suffered through Punk and New Wave, and then sailed on into the 80's with HiNRG, Miami Sound Machine and Madonna.

[@wingfanjim]

My one gripe with Peter is his perpetual knocks against millennials like we are still 22 year olds living in our parents basements. At 41, I’m one of the oldest millennials. I haven’t lived with my parents in 20 years, I’ve been married, I have kids, I’ve owned a home. We aren’t the immature frat bros still attending keggers that Peter portrays us as because it plays well to his main audience demographics. The majority of us are 30 and over. Other than that I do appreciate his wisdom and knowledge.

[@justinokraski3796]

I mean honestly that’s the Zoomers now lol

[@I_Lemaire]

Peter always says there are good millennials and bad millennials. The majority of bad millennials were born after 1987. I am a bad millennial at the moment and I was born in 1988. My oldest cousin was born in 1982 and she is squared away.

[@omicron6513]

You say it, fellow millenial. I agree, Peter only loves this joke because it's a safe bet with his usual audience. He's very aware of his audience's mood and reactions so I do think he will eventually drop it when it stops playing well. Unlike some of his other jabs, this one is almost force of habit for him.

[@Lafly84]

Hah! You should have been an Xer in the eighties and nineties LOL!

[@EditioCastigata]

This his gaffe is a tell, imho, he doesn't present along objective truths but rather a selection, maybe distortion, for his audience that buys his works. For example, what good will an isolated US be? And the housing crisis around the world, NZ in particular, will put a lid on childbirth.

[@missionelpaso3766]

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Thank you very much for all of your videos.

[@David-nb5kz]

Would be great to hear about Australia too. There is a major friendly rivalry between NZ and Australia, similar to Canada and USA.

[@chrisc2671]

@Fepper I don’t think Americans know other countries exist do they? 😅 When I was in America last I told a lady that it’s weird to be driving on the other side of the road. She said “oh yeah, are we the only country that drives on this side of the road?” I couldn’t believe it. She obviously hadn’t been to Canada or Mexico. Almost all countries drive on the American side of the road so she probably hasn’t been anywhere.

[@RobMWhitt]

My thoughts too. Seems similar to US and NZ in terms of land and settler societies. I wonder why they aren’t included

[@pierregibson6699]

There is Zero Rivalries between Us and the Canadians……😂😂😂….we barely know they exist except Drake and The Weeknd 😂

[@rejectionistmanifesto8836]

Africa is growing rapidly followed by the Middle East.

[@christopherellis2663]

@@chrisc2671 it's the Paris side of the road

[@davidannabell2494]

A big Thank You from all of us here in New Zealand to Peter for a video about our country. (You couldn't resist talking about that other country in North America, but we know you can't help it.)😉

[@MrMrfastone]

I stand behind Peter on a longer spiked-eggnog season 🙌

[@bigcity2085]

Evans spiked egg nog is the bomb...stock up !(it has bourbon,rum,and brandy...I can't make it that good at home....my whole town sells out every year,...lately.)

[@raykarena4595]

Glad I'm going back to NZ when I retire here in Australia, already got my place by the beach...

[@acarerdogan4590]

That "pause" before saying "maturing of the millennials" is hilarious.

[@LoremIpsum1970]

and...will it ever happen?

[@olindblo]

@@LoremIpsum1970 depends on which generation gets to define mature. Each generation comes to define maturity in a way that is attainable to it without reference to external factors. Since millennials have a hard time buying homes or finding stable employment, they will hardly come to let those define maturity for them. Earning degrees and attending to familial responsibilities (raising kids / taking care of their elderly / putting your health and relationship first) will most likely be their definition, since they are not being gatekept by external factors for the millennials.

[@LoremIpsum1970]

@@olindblo Yes, though I don't think those definitions equate to the maturity he was alluding to. Maybe he was talking in terms of work ethic rather than maturity? If you have a hard time finding stable work and affording housing, I don't see raising kids and taking care of the elderly having a positive effect on a generation -- unless society stops promising them the world and their expectations and aspirations are tempered -- otherwise you end up with resentment.

[@omicron6513]

@@olindblo Nicely put.

[@TributetoCanada]

Thanks for really getting into this topic!!

[@bogrunberger]

As a Gen-X'er I appreciate that my value rises because there are so few of us!

[@DoubleDogDare54]

Do the country a favor - Have TONS OF KIDS. We need them.

[@bogrunberger]

@@DoubleDogDare54 Not American, but I have 3. :)

[@deriznohappehquite]

@@DoubleDogDare54 Way too late for Gen X to have more kids.

[@shad00w239]

@deriznohappehquite not for male Gen X'rs who are going to be coming into obscene amounts of money right about now. Still though, as a general rule, definitely don't want to bet on the middle age demographic to regenerate our bottom generations. And gen x'rs did have kids so it's not like they didn't put in effort

[@jeffScotty]

It's feels good after I watch your videos

[@patrickwentz8413]

Generation X'ers seize the day! It is now our short time to shine! Now where is Pauly Shore?!

[@LoremIpsum1970]

Problem is we have to train the Millennials, who know it all already...while us GenXers are patiently waiting for our inheritances...something the Millennials won't be getting from us when its their turn.

[@itsame1277]

I'm a boomer in New Zealand and your talks are fascinating. I only hope that our NZ politicians know of your insights as they surely should influence their strategic thinking. If only!

[@courtneykrause7035]

As Peter has previously lived in Australia it’s really weird how we rarely get a mention in his books/videos

[@bighands69]

There is not a lot to say about Australia and what he says about Australia is that it will be fine but it needs to start having more children. Australia over the next 25 years is probably going to have a boom because it has more 20 to 40 year olds than 50 to 70 year olds but does have a lower number of under 20 year olds. It will be interesting to see if the next generation wants to have lots of children and if it does Australia will have a bright future. Areas that Australia could really ramp it up is manufacturing and value added market practices. That means taking all those deep raw material reserves and turning them into products and using the coal, oil and gas for industrial energy. Autralia has a potentially large consumer market just waiting to expand.

[@tschandler2]

Australia is closer to Europe because of environmental factors it doesn't have the small towns and habitable space he mentions.

[@JamesR1986]

​@@tschandler2 Feels like Canada is the right comp here. Settlement society, western (democratic, capitalist, 1st world) with a lot of natural resources per citizen.

[@williamjameshuggins]

@@JamesR1986 the fundamental difference is that we have snow while the aussies have venomous everything lol

[@joti108]

I think he studied as an undergraduate in NZ. Otago University.

[@vs-yy5cx]

love the glass, and that line!

[@MainebobOConnor]

Great analysis... And have you considered how robots and AI will play with demographics? Are we at a point that a smaller working population will be sufficient with this techno "revolution"? Thanks 🎄

[@martindice5424]

Hmm.. I may have observations to make when I am sober. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year!

[@Matthew-bj9ir]

Would love to know your thoughts on Australia .. Its Ageing but not as quick as others . Still good resources. High skilled and strong immigration ... Also strong immigration from NZ ...

[@veronicamaine3813]

I have watched a video where Peter was presenting and he had a colour coded world map which indicated who would do well and not so well. Australia was the same colour as the US :) our demographics are, I would say, are same or even a little better than NZ. We also have a bigger population and far more resources. I actually find it interesting how little Peter says of Australia 😂

[@geoffreypotgieter5106]

I listen to these everyday and love the ideas. I have noted a decided lack of Aus commentary. Good borders brilliant recourses and energy but terrible economy of scale with ok demographics. It would be nice to hear Peters take on it though. Do the pros outweigh the cons?

[@Linnir]

Agreed, I too find it odd that Australia doesn’t seem to be mentioned alone, but only in relation to other countries. I been looking through past videos and the books and haven’t found where Australia is discussed in depth. Hoping to see a video in this series or perhaps someone can point me to an old video?

[@MrBradogg]

Peter only likes 2 of the 5 eyes guess which ones😊

[@rebeccabode8764]

Yeh, I dont think he has spent a lot of time thinking about Australia. From memory in his book our dem graphics weren't great.

[@JonathanLoganPDX]

Bravo, Peter! Bravo!

[@dreamydisaster]

How about the aussies?

[@got2kittys]

Great insights, thank you.

[@johnscramling1653]

An excellent video as always. Peter, I also loved your book "The End of the World is Just the Beginning". I do have some questions about this video though. I understand your logic about the Gen X capital supply etc. However, as the Boomers (like myself) pass on, isn't there going to be a tremendous transfer of wealth to the Gen X and Millennials? I have often heard it called the greatest transfer of wealth in human history. I am thinking that a lot of those assets will be parked somewhere like a bank savings account or the stock market (Heaven forbid it is crypto). Wouldn't this help shore up the capital problem?

[@andrewupson2987]

Except the boomers will consume much of that wealth in health care leaving comparatively little for their heirs.

[@johnscramling1653]

@@andrewupson2987 Possibly, time will tell, however, I think that if you have enough money to leave to heirs, then you probably have medical insurance.

[@user-vq4mt4zd4e]

great content thanks happy new year

[@djscotty06]

Good series Peter. NZ farmer here with our 3rd boy on the way. It’s a little while until they will be able to milk the cows. I’m hoping we can have a government invest in production and energy some time soon. Every one’s books need to be in the black to be able to invest in the green. 👍

[@davidlorang7697]

Curious, how bad was the Covid vax/anti vax battle there? We got a lot of propaganda in the States so I would like to hear from someone who actually lives in NZ.

[@liamfoster8057]

It was bloody bad. I lived in both Denver and Auckland during Covid, and let’s just say the difference was night and day. Also the government made it near impossible for citizens to get back in, quite a slap in the face after all the tax paid…

[@harfenspieler]

Your videos are getting better and better, thank you for your insights!

[@sebastianmonroe5474]

Part that you missed in your video is Australia and NZ have free movement of citizens even more so that in NAFTA. Australia and NZ signed our free trade agreement in 1933 with improvements on it again in 1966 and in 1983. Generally you can move between countries have immediate access to universal health cover, unemployment benefits, and pay the same student fees as domestic students in each country. In times of crisis we form a national cabinet of all the states and territories and NZ. The effect of these integrations is that there are no two countries on Earth with closer economic and social ties meaning that mobility between the two countries in extremely high. In Australia wages are higher and for a while until NZ started to really get the trade going with China with food standards of living were higher in Australia because China needed minerals before it could garner the income status to import more food. That meant that many Aotearoans were drawn across the ditch in search of better opportunities. NZ has had a slightly higher birth rate than Australia and it's millennial generation as a percentage of population is larger than Australia. However Australia per capita has a much larger immigration program. Mining, good governance (Hawke/Keating/Howard reforms), superannuation and very high per capita immigration is what has driven the uninterrupted break of growth for the thirty years in Australia (bar COVID). In Australia we have a problem of not being able to build the infrastructure to keep up with the growth in population and many of these are young recent International graduates. Largest overseas permanent migration in Australia by age, were aged 30-34 years and those aged 35-39 years (each 2.9%), with 1.4% being males and 1.5% females for each age group (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019). Australia and NZ and our Pacific community allow the flow of additional workers around the South Pacific. So the problem we face in our local is we just cannot keep up with the numbers that keep on coming. As some who works to build the housing that Australia is dire short supply of it is at crisis point, not just in the big capital cities but all over the country. With extremely low unemployment both city and rural areas and with 209,900 people migrating in 2022 we have an infrastructure problem not a demographic problem. We also now have record participation of the female workforce with much improved child care because no one can afford to buy a house one one income. So all these competing demands means that the economy despite interest rate increases, inflation and supply chain issues is at full tilt and we are predicted to avoid recession in 2023. Personally with the move to renewables which Australia has many of the core minerals required, the abundance of wind and solar and with undersea cables to power south east Asia the population growth is going to boom. The only thing holding Australia back is water, but it looks like that is going to be solved to with talk of a national water grid driven by green power and deal. But you are correct with Gen X now coming into the management class like in the US Australian federal and state governments are driving hard to find efficiencies through AI, automation, prefabrication, micro manufacturing (3d printing), if Australia does not. do this we are f$%ked to put it mildly. This is why the integration with NZ is so important because the innovation that occurs between the two countries and the sharing of resources means that each country compliments the other. Now that Australia has got over the climate wars and that NZ and AU are re-invigorating the closer economic partnership I would say watch this space.

[@Billabong42]

Climate change will push more Australians to New Zealand.

[@chrismckellar9350]

New Zealand like with Australia has not invested into infrastructure and housing that is currently leading that Millennials and Zoomers will be renting not owning property like the Boomers and Xer's, creating a wealth difference. Unlike Australia, New Zealand's economy is a low wage, preferentially service and consumption based, high importation of most everyday items, low industrial manufacture, relying on low financial return service (tourism) and raw products exports. By way, we are New Zealander's not Aotearoans.

[@mkuc6951]

Listened to the Jon Anderson interview with Jordan Peterson recently, the old Liberal party actually wanted to have zero state debt and fought tooth and nail to achieve it. Now, they libs have destroyed the economy and the new labor party will beat out the last remaining pulses of life. Australia is 64th in economic complexity, below Kazakhstan for F sake, and every manufacturer my father engineered for, holden, Toyota, ford, BAE, airbus have offshored. 30% of our import and export depend on China, how we're going to remedy that simply will be an insane feat. New Zealand suffers from the same issues as us, unaffordable housing. Its ridiculous and I honestly had enough and left the country, when I hear people who are doctors struggling to buy property, its just not even worth the effort.

[@Richard_AKL]

WTF is an Aotearoan?

[@chrismckellar9350]

@@Richard_AKL - It is actually a New Zealander. There is no such word in Te Reo (Maori language) - Aotearoan.

[@jeffScotty]

Your energy is very copacetic✊🏼

[@NinjaHelpdesk]

Would be interested to hear whether Peter thinks Australia’s demographics are more like NZ/USA or more like Canada?

[@philipwilkie3239]

Same here. As a kiwi living in Aus I cannot see much difference; everything he applies to NZ seems to apply to AU only at about 5 times greater scale.

[@TheBassgod14]

Yeah to be honest I'd love a breakdown of every country but I'm very curious about Australia specifically as well since it's a "settler state"...

[@veronicamaine3813]

If you’re interested the video I refer to above is: kzbin.info/www/bejne/omGmgqafm6-lg8U Edit: I do remember Peter mentioning Australia somewhere but he didn’t say much - basically we need to start producing rather than just exporting ( so hardly revelationary). I’ll see if I can find it.

[@Linnir]

Agreed, the pyramid looks very much the same for Australia. I’ve been looking through past videos and the books and haven’t found where Australia alone is discussed in depth. Hoping to see a video in this series or perhaps someone can point me to an old video?

[@kenpickett9317]

Here in Aus, it appears that we tend to fill any gaps in the demographic with hordes of low wage immigrants, mainly from India.

[@m.deadly5952]

can't wait for part4

[@adamtedder1012]

Lol. I'm a old millennial. Born 84. I'm a year from 40. I think we are mostly thru it. Millennials are all in our 30's for the most part and some of us are about to be entering our 40's

[@Dan_Tactics]

I think it has been described that after Gen X is X-ennials, then Millenials. The X-ennials (Gen X / Millennial hybrid) was born in the 80s to early 90s, and thus are the last of those who rember a time before the Internet, and also were exposed to analog technology and became digital pioneers. Millennials, however are in essence digital natives, never having a world without the internet and high-tech gadets. Technology in society is a huge part of the opportunities and changes that happen across generations, and I think it's been left out of the equation, especially when it comes to economics and affordability of standards of living. I don't know if Peter forgets that the 2008 "global economic crisis" happened at a crucial time which severely impacted "Millenials" and our ability to "mature". Then came the everything bubble in which the Boomers, and Xers who had assets and wealth, just got richer. There have been comparisons of the cost of living from the boomers days of becoming adults, to the cost of living for Millennials when we became adults. I wonder who's average cost of buying a house was 19 times their yearly salary, instead of 6 times?

[@SP-po5qg]

Now, I'm coming back to see for the dress and backdrop. Christmas kitsch shouldn't look this good.

[@jorgecanalesbarrera7090]

How is Australia not in this category? Their demographics look very similar 🤔🤔

[@emilywatt5126]

Thank you for pure educational video

[@davidmaher4887]

Doesn't Australia have a similar profile to the US and NZ too? 🇦🇺

[@ycc7744]

Aussie demographics aren’t good, they’ve aged faster

[@yodorob]

I think somehow that Australia (and Canada) has a lower fertility rate than the US and NZ.

[@watchit387]

love this series

[@andrewupson2987]

As a Yankee who’s lived in New Zealand, and still had many friends there, this warms what would be the cockles of my capitalist heart, if I had one. I’m also an X’er so I really hope Peter’s prediction of huge wage growth for my generation is correct so I can afford to go back to New Zealand again. Been way too long since my last trip there (17 years).

[@EscapedTexan]

I like Peter and his work, have read some of his books and one thing I can say is he speaks a great deal in absolutes. So, listen with caution.

[@redcoltken]

agreed - there is so much more to the story

[@colostrumnewzealand]

Love listening to you. How do you know so much of this info. Also that you even discuss NZ. Alot of the world don't know we exist. Great to hear we have things looking pretty good compared to many other countries. If only more Kiwis realised this. We don't know how lucky we are.

[@TomorrowWeLive]

Yeah, we've become a violent impoverished corrupt unsafe third world hellhole and it's only getting worse. Yippee. No, we didn't know how lucky we *were*.

[@colostrumnewzealand]

@@TomorrowWeLive Yes we have our problems and things are tough at the moment. But very lucky compared to other countries with things like social welfare, free health. Things we don't have to pay for that many other countries do.

[@patrickt49]

Peter, can you do a demographics analysis on Southeast Asia? It be interesting to see where they are at and where they are going in terms of a manufacturing base. Thank you.

[@rawkmode6315]

I feel like there is some kind of delay happening with the analysis here, as if this is an older video or something. The youngest Baby Boomer on the planet is 58 right now, while the oldest is 74. I'm a Gen Xer and I turned 51 this year. My son's mother is a Millennial and recently turned 38. My daughter is a Millennial and just turned 33, while my son is Gen Y and is already well on his way to being 15. Those numbers mostly line up with what is said here, but then we go on to ignore the fact that Millennials aren't having children, because economic conditions simply preclude that. My son's mother had him, and never wanted another child. My daughter has talked about having children, "someday," but...well, she's already 33 and has a house full of cats. My son, like most kids these days, prefers to spend time playing video games or watching videos, and believes that going outside and/or socializing with others constitutes some form of heresy. What happens when Gen Y is of a similar size to Gen X? What happens when Gen Y doesn't bother having children, or simply cannot afford to do so? I'd love to see that video analysis.

[@AbdudeBeats]

Do you live in a rural or urban area? Maybe you live in an area with lower birth rates?

[@Allaiya.]

Gen Y and Millennials are the same generation. Gen Z or ‘Zoomers’ are the one that comes after. So if your son is 15 he’s Gen Z

[@rawkmode6315]

@@Allaiya. Yeah, that's my bad.

[@cervahron]

This has been an immensely interesting series thus far and I'm excited to keep watching. Do you address in any of the videos or your books how the demographic shifts will impact global carbon emissions?

[@DeggaTheDev]

I'd love to know your thoughts on Uruguay moving into the future. We're a small nation but our population is stable and very slowly rising. Loved your book btw. ^_^

[@WilliamSantos-cv8rr]

That is mostly by immigration. It might become a problem in case a tidal wave of immigration hits the country as Argentina and Brazil seem to be heading to collapse

[@effexon]

uruguay is becoming actually wealthy country by that (I dont count most western countries wealthy coz that's illusion done by huge debt) and has industries. Only limit I can think is capital housing prices going too high and small country doesnt have many alternative cities(this limit will show population cap, sort of glass ceiling).

[@DeggaTheDev]

Honestly, I think immigration is just fine. Most of our country in the interior is quite empty. Bringing more people and the businesses we need here would really help I think.

[@equim7363]

@@WilliamSantos-cv8rr what's wrong with Argentina? Why it should collapse?

[@juricakovac5667]

I always wondered, how is the weather year round in Urugay? is it cold-ish and windy wind little rainfall or something else?

[@marycollins8215]

Thank you.

[@kaushikvsmaniyan]

He has mentioned in other videos that France & Sweden were doing good with demographics as well among advanced economies and of course Sweden is very immigrant friendly like Norway as well. It would also be interesting to see Norway's

[@Pythonizah]

Swedes are courteous to immigrants, but do not accept them into their hearts. I speak Swedish.

[@lanchparty]

My hubs introduced me to this channel. SUPER interesting!

[@nicolasadomat1675]

I am a millennial, and I do not see our cohort having a large amount of kids unfortunately, most people my age do not have kids, and quite a few are not even in relationships.

[@shad00w239]

Yep. As a millennial I do not think of my generation as baby generating machines. So many people I knew were too worried about climate change or the crazy stuff going on in this world to bring children into it. Of course I live in So Cal and know my experience is unique, so I stay open to the possibility that some millennials in other parts of the country are having all these babies that my experiences don't match

[@99ron30]

I would say lower class millennials are still having kids, not the 4 plus that their parents or grandparents had though. And I would also say the other group popping out two or three kids are the middle class millennials that DID find a good £35k+ job and a stable partner that also has a £25k+ income. The millennials that don't fit in these two groups are not having kids for the most part.

[@shad00w239]

@99ron30 I mean that generally bears out I'd wager, but lol we are deep into speculation here. Then again, I listen to Peter to learn about what the data says. It'd be cool if he did an analysis of the various traits of the high birthrate millennials versus the lower birthrate millennials and what the trends suggest for next few years

[@richardkammerer2814]

As a Kennedy Democrat, aka Independent center-right, my observations are that the influence of culture, customs and traditions are less pronounced in those segments where the view of traditional liberal democracy and libertarianism is frowned upon. Those more centrally based independent of wealth appear to be carrying the day when it comes to the growth of the millennial population.

[@taranigast4241]

We drink, and we know things (with Peter's help). Merry Christmas and Happy New Year all!

[@debkheiry5846]

I keep reminding people that this is likely exerting a social pressure that is affecting politics - the survival of a country in the long term requires that we have families, and with the arguments for/against Roe, It sure seems like that’s where one of the battles for survival is taking place.

[@juniorjames7076]

Does this mean a pendulum swing away from the transgender/woke/anti-nuclear family zeitgiest?

[@ralphemerson497]

You fail to realize the US is solving the issue for/against Roe and low birth rate with unfettered illegal immigration. Several 100,000 young, illiterate, uneducated illegals crossing our southern border monthly will break our economy with unlimited social spending but their children and grandchildren will provide the tax base to continue to fund profligate social, defense and retirement spending. The US has no issue with low birth rates. We’re importing our future.

[@wingfanjim]

@@juniorjames7076 I doubt it. Roughly speaking, 10% of the population has alway been some form of LGBTQ+. That isn’t changing now and likely never will. What you call “woke” is just these population groups finally feeling safe about being open about who they are when in past generations they were forced to remain hidden.

[@DamienWalter]

That is...quite a scene.

[@nathanielhunter1280]

Bonus of not sleeping is I get the first comment! Look forward to your posts every morning!

[@terribleteddy]

I mean germany tried to get some "elbow room" in the early 40ies. But the rest of us didnt think it was a good idea :) #imsorry #imsofunny

[@ronnymcdonald2543]

Germans should do it again, second times a charm lol

[@terribleteddy]

@@ronnymcdonald2543 1. *third (I know its unfair but its funnier) 2. I mean they are rearming in a big way currently

[@juricakovac5667]

@@terribleteddy didn't rearmament fall through already, didn't government backtrack on the promised 100 bill, also while I don't doubt the German spirit, I think Germans of the past are not Germans of today, don't take this disrespectfully but everyone makes fun of you guys how pathetic and cucked you became in the last 30 years

[@ronnymcdonald2543]

@@terribleteddy ooppsss my mistake yes 3rd, and now they can get Ukraine tp pincer move as theyve already bombed Poland AGAIN haha

[@michelfortier9563]

Always great info! PS - Love the house.

[@ophello]

I thought this was gonna be a lecture on non-binary pronouns.

[@stynnieuwenhuis9999]

Lmao same. Thought he would talk about how it’s gonna lead to demographic collapse

[@sapereaude6274]

Same, but hair styles instead of pronouns...