Demographics Part 4: The European Breakdown

Let's continue our demographic discussions with Europe. It would be foolish to lump all of Europe together, but we can place most of these countries into 1 of 4 categories.
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[@garyswank1043]

In one of his demographic videos, Peter should elucidate what will happen to countries that "age out". Examples: collapse of services, open door immigration, wealth flight, the aging and failure of infrastructure, cessation of government functions including welfare, police and justice systems. Providing examples would help illustrate this.

[@paulconner4614]

Nobody really knows as we don't have a working economic model for it. There are things that can be done but governments for the most part will be reactive. Think Detroit. Instead we can encourage people to work later in life. As the populations shrink we can actively tear down older unused structures and repurpose the land as parks/recreation or just plant trees and return it to the wild. What we shouldn't do is just let large swaths of buildings and infrastructure just decay in place.

[@touche97]

happening already. lost back in history to where we had tiny pop.. we thrived.. why? because we did everything local.

[@paulconner4614]

@@touche97 It is actually much easier to manage as an farming society for this exact reason. You don't have near as much infrastructure to support and people are at least eating from the food they grow.

[@Martinit0]

Don't forget inflation. If fewer people work we'll have fewer things produced while demand is still high and wages will go up (low supply of work). Out of the window go your retirement savings that you believed were adequate. Increased immigration is likely the lesser evil: yes, people around you will look different and talk different but at least you still might have a working health care system.

[@SomeGuy699]

That actually sounds like Portugal...

[@shanepritchard6322]

Just discovered you after watching you on JRE. I'd love to hear your thoughts on my own country Australia

[@lifeoflennie2443]

Me too🤞

[@jackblaisdell4097]

Check the vid before this one

[@raymondk6721]

Doomed bro most western countries are because of.feminism

[@deqa]

Wtf Zeihan was on JRE? I hate the new JRE paywall shit because even if I'm subbed on Spotify, the Spotify corporate cuckism that Joe has engaged in has made everything super hard to see. Before it was "my KZbin feed told me he talked to X new guy" and now it's "go hump Spotify and read the list of people he's talked to" and it's incredibly inefficient swapping all these platforms to see Joe's content again.

[@jfisher164]

There are parts in Latvia that only have old people and a few very young people. It’s a little creepy because you still have these relatively large old school soviet blocks everywhere and literally no one walking around on the streets.

[@lioncat52302]

Sounds like Florida except with crappy weather and no money.

[@jacobwaddell6075]

@@lioncat52302 live in FL can confirm haha!

[@christianokolski9701]

As an economics major, I never learned anything about demographics like this in a single class. Unbelievable. Demographics is so integrally tied to macroeconomics, geopolitics, etc. Thanks Peter Z. for these videos!

[@LRRPFco52]

One of the biggest issues I have seen with academia is that they waste years upon years on political philosophy and policy, instead of geography, history, and demography. Peter comes from the school of thought where geography and demography dictate what you can’t do, then go from there. Academia and the gravity of thought in institutions is all based on wish lists that can’t be fulfilled, then waste lives trying to fix blame to some other group from an ideological perspective.

[@Leo137156]

@@LRRPFco52 Well said.

[@The_10th_Man]

Do you go to a winery and expect a new car lot? State school purpose is to train you to serve the State. It’s not their fault, you simply misunderstand what they’re selling.

[@johann-sebastianflachland5424]

It needs to be said that demographics being an issue at all was not a concept for our professor- and teacher generation. It was safely assumed that there would always be more people. Even to this day, there are people in Europe talking about "overpopulation" as one of the biggest challenges for our future and laugh at you if you suggest we might face demographic decline. "Look around? Do you feel like there are not ENOUGh people, already? Listen to these damn children screaming - are you telling me there is too FEW of them? Sound like a LOT to ME." Generation upon generation in the west was raised on sci-fi dystiopias of crowded cyberpunk cities with polluted skies and robot revolutions. While in the present, everyone focussed on being productive workers and find a niche for themselves without falling into the "trap" of having families (even those who could have theoretically afforded it even post taxes), like the poor, dumb people who haven't figured out that life is all about career and being respectable and that there will always be suckers - again, in fact, too many - to make children anyway. Well, turns out everyone was being "smart". Too bad.

[@Leo137156]

@@johann-sebastianflachland5424 Well said. Thanks for the info.

[@Martinit0]

You know your place is in terminal decline when the hearing aid shops take over the prime locations

[@FarTooFar]

LOL, my wife said the same thing to me while we were driving through Munich a while ago. The crumblies have taken over!

[@mikstratok]

@@FarTooFar I legit thought it was money laundering or something like that... There is no way the hearing aids make that much money

[@DS-nw4eq]

Well, regardless of what he said about the US... it would seem most women think the point of life is to make their pussies squirt.

[@user-hb2ib1je7j]

@@mikstratok they make quiet a bit of coin, but they are run like oil companies, the shell or BP is not going to pay all the staff wages from the chocolates or drinks, they are fronts for the oil companies. works the same way with hearing aids, they are the front for mega corporations that make a hearing aid for $100 and sell it for $10,000

[@babetopaz]

hahaha, excellent.

[@Lumpy_Peter]

I am a testimony to what you said about the Central Europe. Me and my partner, after we were finished with university and had been working for a few years in Slovakia, moved to Norway in our late 20's. We did get kids in our early to mid 30's, but the chances for our return to Slovakia are pretty slim. Both mine and her sister (who stayed) are childless, so the net population result of both her and mine parents (now retired or approaching retirement age) for Slovakia is nada, 0, niks.

[@ReaXTutorials]

Nice, Europe is dying.

[@kevindorland738]

Interesting. Zero children = Death of a country.

[@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma]

GG WP I will never understand not having children. First chance I get I'm gonna have something about 5 'baabies'. It's like, if you are childless, you haven't done nothing for yourself. Everything gets nullified if there's no next generation of you. And yet, in Africa, where people are piss-poor, and in Arab countries they have a ballooning population. And, they of course flood to Europe which desperately needs people. Guess what's gonna happen with all those European nations who fought for 2000 years to save their genetic code... Mass extinction event. Noice.

[@grisza77]

good, cheap land in the mountains ;)

[@HBon111]

Sad to hear. But I'm not sure how close to the mark Zeihan is about that region. Cz.Rep for instance has maintained a remarkably stable population for awhile now. I guess time will tell.

[@yankeegonesouth4973]

Economics is inherently complex, but at this point the US has experienced heavy economic headwinds and yet the labor market is still incredibly tight. Years ago, Zeihan's presentations were interesting. Now, I think he's really being proved right. Still kinda sucks, but at least I know what's happening. Thanks, Peter!

[@p51mustang24]

The "tight labor market" is a case of lying with data. Headline unemployment number doesnt capture the 15% (!!!) of the US working age population that left the active labor force in 2008. The headline number is useful for measuring people who are likely to actually get back into the labor force in the next 6-12 months, but it completely covers up the much darker reality of an economy that collapsed in 2008 and never *really* recovered.

[@yankeegonesouth4973]

@@p51mustang24 The labor market is what companies see as well as employees looking for work. As long as employers are having trouble finding workers, the labor market is tight. It is tight for a number of issues, but I think demographics are the biggest. There are absolutely other issues apart from demography at play, and I am open to being persuaded they are bigger issues than demography, but I just don't see it. How do you come up with the number 15 million?

[@yankeegonesouth4973]

@@p51mustang24 I apologize, I think your 15% in 2008 does appear to be correct or close to it. I agree that we haven't recovered, really, from that crash. Demographics are still a major factor that we have no way of avoiding. I just don't like saying "lying with numbers" when I don't think there is a coverup, but rather a different part of the story. There are changes in human behavior, the state of the economy, gov't policy and a million other things, but demographics are the sea we all swim in. Even immigration policy (if we could actually come up with one instead of the current bickering stalemate) is just a reaction to that.

[@Mechaneer]

Peter, you provided so much information in this one that I had to listen to it twice.

[@fontfroide1]

Beware the information was incorrect. Greetings from a European.

[@yoloswagtron6920]

@@fontfroide1 What's incorrect? Any sources?

[@yoloswagtron6920]

@@fontfroide1 Zeihan focuses on "big picture" demographics and geography, and the effect those have on the entire continent. Folks tend to look at their country or their little social bubble and think he's wrong when they don't see the same trends, but he's going off high-level data, not personal anecdotes or the local/national situation. The Netherlands might do very well in the future, who knows? But certain countries in Europe did not make the same choices as yours, and they might not do as well as a result. That's the crux of his position.

[@bobm.4268]

You gotta do one of these from a Hot Air Balloon - keep upping the broadcasting from the wild ante

[@allisonmarlow184]

I half expect to see him on a ski lift!😆

[@julianb1550]

Now THAT is a great idea..

[@razvanlipan7754]

In France and Scandinavian countries (Sweden especially) the high birthrate is not due to the locals (which have roughly similar birth rates as other local Europeans), but because of the high number of non-European migrants minorities (especially muslim arabs and africans) - which is similar case with Russia (discussed elsewhere) and, in lesser degree, Germany. I did not see yet you discussing Great Britain in any of these mini series about demographics, but I would place Britain in a similar situation with France: rising overall population is due to immigrants with higher birthrates among the muslim/indian/african minorities.

[@zi326]

I'm swedish and based on my own observations that is half true. Most immigrants are not having that much kids either (except somali families). The average immigrant lives in smaller appartments in the outskirts of bigger cities and yes the average immigrant have more kids than swedes in those same cities. But I dont think (once again based on my own observations) that they have more kids than swedes that live in smaller cities, towns and villages. And sweden is a very semi urban country, meaning that the average swede dont live in a big city but rather smaller one (around 30 000-40 000 people) where the cost is much lower and there is alot more room for kids etc. I grow up in a smaller town myself (10 000 people) and I don't think I knew one single person who was a single child. Everyone had atleast one sibling, and half the the families had more than that. And it was very similar between swedes and immigrants. So I think those numbers that immigrants has much higher birth rate is a little misguided becuase we measure it in the major cities. I think Its probably similar in the other scandinavian countries and france that also are semi urban. But for example England, Germany and Italy who also has a shit ton of migrants still have crappy birthrates, difference is there the people are highly urbanized.

[@samhirst2830]

Most immigrant birthrates in Britain are the same as the native population which is below 2.1 children per family. The only demographic that has natural population growth are British Pakistani/Bangladeshis who belong to socially conservative Muslim backgrounds. Even British Indians who were known for having large families are now having less kids.

[@KrzysiekWawrytko]

Exactly. I see the same reasons.

[@SonOfMorning]

The immigrant birth rates aren't much more than natives. Even Muslim birth rates as singled out demographic have just 2,5 and it's going down.

[@koushikdas1992]

​@WoundedEgo10 dude, 2.5 birthrate is way above the below replacement rate of 2.1.

[@B1gF0x]

I've been watching him for more then an year and I'm so excited that he is going to make a video about the orthodox country's. This can't come faster.

[@anti-emo4721]

Orthodox countries are already doomed! Especially Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, etc.

[@nathankurtz5960]

Same!

[@alext2664]

Well , I hope you weren’t too disappointed that he indeed just skipped it and went to China in the next part 😂

[@randohoward8903]

Thanks for this very interesting update Peter. A couple of questions if I may: 1) What about Britain? As a Brit I'm presuming we sit very firmly in the second camp (first to industrialise, expensive small housing, no subsidised childcare for infants, few requirements for paternity leave (I got 2 weeks)). But then consider 2) How does immigration impact European demographics? As you hinted when discussing the Baltic states, one solution to not having enough young people is to take them from elsewhere. Thanks for your time. Best wishes, Rando

[@zi326]

1. Yes I would imagine Britain is in the sama category as Germany and Italy for the factors you just said. 2. In regards of immigration, there is no self respecting people or nation that would consider genociding their own people as a solution to low birth rates

[@alsoascot02]

The UK is just randomly increasing its population with no other plan.

[@alsoascot02]

@@zi326 the UK doesnt have a totally an inverted pyramid because we imported folk. (9 million in the last 20 years). But it wasnt planned in anyway as the motive for it wasnt about anything structured.

[@TomorrowWeLive]

@@alsoascot02 yes it was planned, it was planned to annhilate the British as a people

[@oliveoil7642]

Or incentivize your own people to have children.

[@Thee-Marie]

Just love your BRAIN Mr. Zeihan! Thanks for keeping it in shape! And for taking us all on this epic, historic analysis with you.

[@nickfox2959]

I find these videos fascinating. Thank you Peter. As a Brit, I’d love to hear your thoughts on the UK’s prospects…

[@DontUputThatEvilOnMe]

If you watch his other videos he talks about the UK is ok for the most part as long as they sign trade deals with North America and the rest of Europe. Essentially being an extension of the other larger economies. But he does mention UK still doesn’t have great demographics but not the worst.

[@nickfox2959]

@@DontUputThatEvilOnMe thanks

[@samhirst2830]

The UK as a whole would be in the central Europe and Iberian category. Most of our bulge is in their 40s and we have about 20 years before shit hits the fans. However, as individual home nations Scotland is firmly in the Germano sphere category it has the second lowest fertility rate in all of Europe and most of its bulge is starting to retire if it wasn't for the young English student population that moves up there to attend Univeristy the effects would be even more dire. England & Wales like the UK as a whole are also in the central Europe and Iberian category. Northern Ireland is in the same category as the French and Nordic countries it still has a highish fertility rate for a European country and they have managed to do this without much immigration. Supposedly the reasoning behind the above average fertility rate in Northern Ireland is that ardent Protestant and Catholic families are trying to outbreed each other.

[@Shifter-1040ST]

I'm German. I remember back in the 80s and 90s we were told that if you are low income - don't have children! But guess what, the vast majority of people are relatively low income, as it always were. But then shame was put on poor and lower middle class people having many children. Even back then I knew something was very wrong with that arrogant, snobbish mindset. Now it's going to bite us all in the a®se.

[@speedypete4987]

The fact is that smarter people (i.e. women) have fewer children. The movie Idiocracy pokes fun at this fact. However, the "lower classes" will always produce more offspring.

[@crescent4996]

The ironic thing is the people being brought in via mass immigration have the highest birth rates. Countries are creating entire permanent underclasses, but governments bribe them with taxpayer freebies to win votes and the system perpetuates endlessly.

[@effexon]

I remember this mindset too, almost until 2020s.... it seemed very european sentiment from 1990s to 2020. It doesnt make sense as US people are way richer in these measures.

[@osea5000]

A truly terrifying society

[@tancreddehauteville764]

Sounds like bullshit to me. The decision to have children is a personal one, not the government's.

[@kostasyian4788]

Ζeihan, as a Greek I feel left out :) I know we are a country that isn't really a typical part of their respective group (East Europe? West Europe? Balkans?) and we are aging as well but would be nice to knoe your opinion. Cheers.

[@nikolasm.1297]

He rarely mentions Greece and when he does it's basically him saying that Greece is a failed state that is going to dissapear in a few decades. Zeihan hates Greece lol

[@nebyeelda5862]

​@@nikolasm.1297Because Greeks are not having kids and are living twice their means. That means the next generation won't tolerate a life standard that is lower than their parents so they will either migrate or have even fewer kids which is zero.

[@murgel2006]

As a German with an economic background: You are right! Personally, I have 4 children and all of them are grown-ups now, with the youngest just finishing high school. Germany's population has aged and the Xers have not had children for various reasons, mostly fear. Also, the Millenials and the Zoomers are not especially economically inclined in their thoughts, they favour ecological and prestige-heavy jobs, meaning prestige within their peer group. They are the most unreflected and egocentric workforce and "Work-live-balance" is their battle cry. They are, for whatever reason, not able or willing to plan more than 2-3 years ahead. In addition, they are working extremely hard to kill any form of "traditional" family structure and the related support systems for any generation. Thus no Grandma watching the kids, which they don't have anyway, thus no parents to come to for advice and thus no children to support the economy when their retirement comes. (Yes, I have watched your videos and, sadly, I knew much of this beforehand...🙂)

[@JUICE_PROPAGANDA_CEO]

Mr Zeihan, Czechia is in quite better demographic situation than others in the region, our gen X was pretty big and our zoomers/gen alpha (2005-2012) were also pretty big generations thanks to that. It is not as much, but we definitely haven't moved nowhere near as much as the Baltics or Poland and definitely had more children. We're mixed with Germano-centrism (pre-WW2) and Soviet industrialization (post-WW2) even though it has not touched our industrial traditions that much, it has scarred the former German regions and the areas which flourished during communism like Polish-Czech Silesian region. To add to that, our demographic peak was 11.2m in 1940, both WWs coupled with German expulsions and communism have insanely fucked us. Our current population is about 10.7m, not counting 450k Ukranians that came through out 2022. With that in mind, 2023-2024 is the year our population will peak pre-WW2 levels. I am a vivid watcher and a 18 years old Czech, i hope we are on a good path and i plan on staying. :)

[@SladkaPritomnost]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Czech_Republic#/media/File:Czech_Republic_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png newborns are half to their 40ies parents.

[@nouveauprofil]

Thank you for your input. I'm considering moving to CZ from France. Highest difficulty would be the language, but grass definitly looks greener in Czech Republic than in Western Europe (industry, crime rate, freedom, urban and social peace, future).

[@nehorlavazapalka]

@@nouveauprofil CZ will go woke in 7 years, so no chance.

[@watchmetrade6066]

congrats on the Silver on World Juniors hockey tonight

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

@@SladkaPritomnost whoaa that looks awful 😂

[@jethroe1903]

Peter, I'm going to suggest that you think about a small tripod for your phone. Aureday puts out one that backpackers use. Your content is so high quality that it deserves this little tweak.

[@allisonmarlow184]

Yeah, but watching him hold it while speaking is half the fun (or is it half the charm?) It's sort of his trademark.

[@aaron3890]

This Demographics Series is just amazing! Thanks for making these!!

[@SoApost]

His whole book series is based on this demographic info.

[@hughsmitham722]

Agreed. It's fascinating.

[@Mercilesswon]

There are no solutions only trade offs. -Thomas Sowell

[@travisadams4470]

Thomas Sowell is a National Treasure.

[@d000dez]

"The right acknowledges that tradeoffs exist, but the left believes that sacrifices don't, or shouldn't, matter." -Michael Malice

[@garyspence2128]

He's just one voice out of many. Choose your oracles carefully. But the old brother does have some real knowledge. I give him that. Too bad his preconceived biases get in the way....sometimes. Just like all of us!

[@travisadams4470]

@@garyspence2128 I'll take Sowell over any other oracle

[@sb_dunk]

Hahahaha you know you're surrounded by pseudo intellectuals when they start quoting Sowell and MICHAEL MALICE lmao

[@MrSkully93]

Cool that you also live in CO! Waiting for Spring so I can get my motorcycle up into the mountains. I really am enjoying this series, and very much appreciate it.

[@tedbaxter5234]

Thank you for these interesting videos.

[@AdrianMarginean]

Romanian here, you just stopped on my porch. Great content, subscribed after 1st video seen. Pls continue to share your knowledge and experience with us! peace!

[@aaronbaker2186]

Worth remembering that what Peter is saying is not that in 2040 there will be an uninhabited region between France and Poland. He is talking about economic growth. If you have a 20% decline in population and everyone is 15% richer he calls that a loss-"gone." After all, if a country isn't growing it doesn't exist. Japan doesn't exist by his measure, but I seem to still be able to buy Sony TVs and game systems. It sounds really doom and gloom, but that is because he has a different benchmark than we do.

[@carteryoung3986]

In his books 'not exist' means now longer viable as a polity, a political unit. When he says China 'won't exist' he just means Beijing won't be in charge of the rest of the country. Same with Germany. It's not the people or even the economy that will disappear, more the federation that presently exists. Love Peter, but he has a flair for the dramatic and tends to overstate things for shock value.

[@TokyoTaisu]

@@carteryoung3986 spot on

[@geoffreybaigon7789]

as I understand it, his "not exist" is in strong correlation with the impending deglobalization/the US self-isolating which we haven't seen before and your Japan example has happened in the 90-s at the height of globalization(Soviet Union collapsed) so its probably gonna be way worse than Japan

[@thomaseck3210]

It's only that there is not going to be a 20% decline in population in that region, not even a 0% one. Germany will keep on growing with some projections now seeing it peak at 95 (!) million people in the 2040s. It will have more than 80 million inhabitants well into the second half of the 21st century. It is Poland that is in deep excrement with UN forecasts seeing it at only 15 million people in 2100.

[@dodgeplow]

There will also be population contraction until ultimately reaching some steady state.

[@NikiGalabov]

I'm from Bulgaria and can't wait for the next episode.

[@AndyWearsPants]

You missed a huge value to paternity leave: dramatically lower rates of mental health disorders and lower crime rates. The research is overwhelmingly clear on this.

[@Doritoman92]

You’re ridiculous

[@usceccu]

Lower crime rates due to paternity leave? Where is the data? Crime in Europe is mainly due to young males of African and/or Muslim background.

[@Showmetheevidence-]

Dude. It’s a 6m video - he’s just giving his overview.

[@jeffersonott4357]

@@Showmetheevidence- still… not a bad point

[@therainbowgulag.]

Paternity leave in an aging population undergoing catastrophic population collapse?! NAAAA!

[@vojonjezic]

I'm sorry to bother you but I'm eagerly awaiting the episode on the demographic situation in Serbia. I live there and in the EU and am considering where my children should grow up. Many thanks for your work so far Vojo

[@iiiooo3803]

Dont even think! In Serbia...

[@banzaaiiiii]

if you got a degree or a high skill take North America(mainly Canada) over Europe you never know when shit goes down especially around your area.

[@deciduousdiscipline9592]

Love this series. Thanks. Keep up the great work

[@idiottv6499]

A note about countries that joined Schengen in 2007: the people who emigrated from there generally had kids - considerably more than back home - they're just naturally counted as citizens of the destination countries. Most of the ones coming back are doing it because they've reached retirement age and western pensions in a lower cost of living area, combined with real estate bought back when it was really cheap, make it a pretty good deal.

[@josephosso3101]

I used to go with my grandparents as a kid to southern Italy. I can say that the drop in birth rates is not due to a lack of "elbow room", its the stupid high taxes and lack of job opportunities. It has gotten so bad that Calabria is now rewilding. The town I used to go to is a shell of its former self and will probably die in the 2030s. All of my cousins moved away for work (none have kids) and about 1/3 of my childhood friends ended up starting a family. It is something that is painfully sad to see and I can point to the implementation of the Euro as a trigger for all of this.

[@juniorjames7076]

I miss the days of handling and seeing Liras, Francs, Deutchmarks and drachmas. Traveling in the 90s was so interesting. Now globalization has made everywhere the same. People look the same. Everyone is wearing the same Vans, Crocs, Uggs, and Supreme's in Istanbul and Budapest that they are wearing in New York and London.

[@kurt1391]

What you say is true, no question, but it's also a factor of viewpoint. A hundred years ago, it was accepted that one's primary role, as ordained by God, was to get married and have kids, and in that order. For women, there was little other option. Now the view is self-actualization. If you don't want to get married, fine. No kids? Fine. Serial monogamy? Fine. Whatever? Fine. If the former model was oppressive and stultifying, it did produce societal stability at least. This new model produces societal death.

[@garyspence2128]

It's not the death of society. It's called change. You should embrace it or adjust to it, because it will happen, regardless of your opinion of it. Twas ever thus....

[@cavaleermountaineer3839]

Yeah, I'm surprised he doesn't mention this about Italy. It's what I've heard and seen in several vids. Maybe it'll change with the new leadership.

[@kingbee1971]

Change with new leadership? LOL.

[@charliecashman]

Wow - excellent summary. The mechanics behind the policies must be even more fascinating, as in - what is it in a national psyche and political policy that 1) makes it possible to recognize the demographic problem for what it is, and 2) actually pass legislation that the country accepts to promote demographic stabilization. I am guessing it's not called that and probably viewed as a what you said - 60% tax rate countries that have cradle to grave health care and super liberal child support. All of it though begs the larger question - would a country be better off with a smaller population but balanced with respect to how economies work. I suspect it would be impossible without globalization to make it possible, and it could be the drive for wealth and status would always mean that there would be too much interference to make anything else possible. It might be interesting for you to do a segment on what a post demographic collapsed nation might look like if a country - perhaps Japan? - is far enough down the path to speculate on what that might look like?

[@andreip9378]

4:19 - It's not correct to say that Czechia only became industrialized in the "soviet" era. Czechia is often credited as one of the most industrialized regions in Europe before WWI. For example it has one of the first industrial shoe-making brands - Bata. Or one of the oldest truck-producing companies - Tatra, which nowadays considered to be one of the best truck-producers in the EU. I suspect similar things could be said about other CE countries. Anyway, thank you for interesting video.

[@nicobruin8618]

Indeed, Bohemia was the most industrialised region in the Austro-Hungarian empire.

[@Whatisthisstupidfinghandle]

Yes and it’s also the main reason Germany invaded in 1938. They said they were protecting German speaking natives. What they really wanted was Skoda. The second largest armaments manufacturer in Europe, second only to germanys Krupp

[@grzegorzwhateverski8451]

Zeihan is mostly correct when he looks from a distant orbit (moon and further). Getting any closer makes him burn.

[@HBon111]

Czechia, what a nonsensical change. Czech Republic works fine enough.

[@kingbee1971]

"ia" all the things!!! Czechia, Slovakia, Serbia, Italia, Germania...

[@acikacika]

Ok, as always, gotta wait it out for the next one

[@gonzoii148]

A bit surprised to hear that France was "a little late to the game in industrialization" as it was only second to the UK in the 19th century and far ahead of any other continental country. I guess Peter was talking more about Scandnavian countries. His overall analysis is still totally relevant though.

[@erickarnell]

Industrialization in this case may have been shorthand for urbanization. Besides Paris, the population of France has managed to remain morevspead out, and the smaller villages and towns seem to renain populated, as opposed to the dead or dying southern Italian towns.

[@professorfinessor5363]

France was destroyed during the start of the 20th century

[@AndreaDavidEdelman]

lol 😂 buddy this guy is deeply delusional

[@overlord165]

Incorrect, Belgium was the first to industrialize in continental Europe.

[@geraldbennett7035]

The French are bust striking and handing over their rights to politicians

[@audiophile1024]

Please go over the demographics in a future video for the British Isles. Fascinating topic.

[@peredavi]

UK has only about 1.58 children per woman. The high immigration rates from Asia and Africa is going to have a large effect on the demography of especially southern England over next generation . www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2021

[@oscarslife5497]

Walk past a primary school at home time and you'll understand our demographics

[@Joker-yw9hl]

I'm fairly sure he's written before that British demographics are some of the best in Europe, but that's more of a mention of how bad they are on the continent than how good they are here. French demographics are better but Britain should remain relatively stable, but does require immigration to get by, just like everyone else in Europe.

[@mbak7801]

@@oscarslife5497 Only in a few cities. Huge swathes of the country are very different.

[@andrewjones4841]

I want to see this too!!

[@powzy69]

Hi Peter! You left out Ireland? Rapidly becoming a very wealthy country with some very unique circumstances in terms of relationships & deep historical ties with USA, Britain and also through membership of EU & Eurozone. What happens to this small country when all starts to fall? Will these relationships serve it well?

[@powzy69]

Your content is brilliant btw! 👏

[@SSoundtruck]

My cousin moved to Germany when he was 25. Now he is 47, still no kids, not married 😂. But he has a very well paying job.

[@SyedWadud-n6p]

It’s the Ideological problem.

[@tgiRETRO]

I hope you take this series further than the Police Academy movies!

[@Blackjack701AD]

Or Sharknado

[@paperandmedals8316]

Read his latest book. 500 pages of Peter should fill in the blank spots.

[@AbstractASMR1]

Peter's next installment should be out of Miami 😆

[@maxiaguirre]

Spain Italy and Portugal have an advantage: millions of European passport holders from Latin America. This is a younger crowd. Only in my country, Argentina, there are almost 2 million Italians holders and 1.5 million Spanish. Plus there is a lot of people in these countries that can apply for European nationality. Not to mention the ones that can't apply but can move to Spain or Italy without feeling a cultural shock

[@IamaCosmonaut]

But why would they?

[@houseplant1016]

They use their Italian and Spanish passports to come Western Europe, not Southern. Let's be honest here

[@ElpinikiLyberis]

Interested to hear your intake on Ireland, the British Isles and also, how Greece is positioned... as part of the CEE or the Orthodox group?Thanks!

[@kingbee1971]

Here, let me Google that for you: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

3:00. Yes. Yes we do have that. It's calllled Japan and South Korea. Also, you forgot Monaco, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg and most important ofc, Switzerland. I know these aren't game changers but I'd still be curious about your opinion, esp on Switzerland?

[@mckennamike1]

Ireland and the UK were entirely missed from this round up. The UK may no longer be part of the EU, but it is certainly European! Ireland may be small, but we still count and our incoming Teaoseach (Prime Minister) is targeting to dramatically increase the population, primarily through immigration. I'd love to see your take on this.

[@mckennamike1]

Have you seen this analysis? Wouldn't agree with everything and some of the "facts" are a bit sketchy, but overall it's not a bad analysis. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qZzRiYl5hrmcb9E

[@tombee9785]

@@rhobot75Ireland is utterly irrelevant to any conversation related to global affairs

[@s4mur41RPG]

As a Brit I wish Ireland the best of luck with your new leader not succeeding with his migration policies

[@mckennamike1]

As a Brit, you weren't asked...

[@tombee9785]

@@mckennamike1 cope

[@libbydaddy8610]

Love these backdrops (and of course, the excellent analysis).

[@epifanpefev2835]

Between demographic collapse and negative migration we (Bulgarians) loose 2-3% of workforce each year. Also we are the fastest declining population in the world. Can’t wait to hear Peter’s verdict. Lately I’ve been rewatching “I am legend” for inspiration 🙃

[@pauliuskaskoks1153]

🙃 is my favorite emoji 😂

[@Fireneedsair]

Lose not loose

[@epifanpefev2835]

@@Fireneedsair Thanks 🙏

[@genomedia44]

I've had in my head for as long as I can remember an image of the future, which eventually I could properly explain to people once that movie came out

[@theresadoll5374]

Dude! Do yourself a favour and switch to watching “Tom and Jerry”. Healthier ... just my opinion!

[@JasonField]

Would be interested in hearing who (&how) is being most responsive to these demographic threats mentioned. Anecdote from the ground: I’m Australian living in Germany and the migrant population (that obviously I am a part of) seems to have skyrocketed especially the last 5 years. Big bumps from Syria & Ukraine (I believe a million a pop) and a way different approach to visa processing. I used to fear my yearly appointment/interrogation … now they are almost rubber stamping.

[@a5t3r1xd3]

From a demographic perspective, immigration in Germany may look right. Especially, the extreme number of people at a young age is remarkable. Only, to be a solution to problems, the crucial step is missing: integration. The easy part is behind Germany. Attracting people with money in hand. Only now the problems catch up with you. Completely overburdened structures and a policy that does not seem to want to change anything about the bad conditions. In a country where throwing fire extinguishers at ambulances with patients is only punished with a charge of damage to property, I don't see that problems will be solved...

[@Henry-hm8tu]

@@a5t3r1xd3 I agree with this, as a fellow Australian from the original commenter, I can tell you most countries do not integrate immigrants as well as we do.

[@LumenMichaelOne]

That is an important observation so thank you for sharing that. In the past year... one million? Imagination helps a demographic fall. Always has... maybe that's why Angela Merkel allowed all the immigrants (extremely unpopular) to come in while Syria civil war... She knew they needed bodies to work. AFD hated it. That's how they solve it... once migrant influx is seen universally as desirable.

[@jhrusa8125]

@Henry The old countries will never be able to assimilate people into society like the new ones do. You can never be a German or a Chinese, the people in these lands go back too far. What's an Australian or an American or Canadian, that's the difference.

[@northupguy]

If you convince women that your career and not needing a man is more important than having a family and children, you get the modern western world.

[@RaskMogens]

They are not forcing anyone to be home with kids in Sweden, but at max benefit, you get 390 days as a couple out of which 90 days each are personal. If you don’t want to use them, you can easily manage without - with the help of daycare at an earlier age or by spreading the days with benefits out, so the benefit is lower.

[@indysasa]

Although afraid of what I’m going to hear in the next video still looking forward.

[@TokyoTaisu]

In The Netherlands I noticed the first cracks in the system already. Small things, but startup funding disappeared, key infra investments halted where one national fund only cofunded a UK project, basically all political decisions are pro retirees removing risk, resource allocation to and limiting opportunity for young people. It has started already.

[@alanparsonsfan]

This sounds like a key bellweather for all the aging nations that aren't super-successful exporters like Korea and Japan. Wish it weren't so, but barring a society whose priorities are a bit different fron the norm, I think this very likely for most.

[@jfb.8746]

Yep. Same thing is happening in Quebec and other aging provinces of Canada. The government is run by boomers and elected by boomers-retirees. Almost anything is decided for that portion of the population. Once theyre gone we will be in a mess....

[@TokyoTaisu]

@@jfb.8746 I understand you. The weird thing is here in Japan it's already reversing, or at least they're trying. The Abenomics era is changing, albeit slowly. Lots of measures implemented here get implemented 3-5 years later in the Netherlands or Canada and similar countries for that matter. Like free childcare. Japan in the lead actually has some great benefits and subsidies now compared to the west. But, like you said, at risk of too little too late.

[@jfb.8746]

@@TokyoTaisu What a coincidence. I lived in Japan during the 90s. It was obvious back then that politics, the economy, hell, the way the whole society was being run was for a specific aging portion of the population (post ww2-60s specifically) but even back then the writing was on the wall, demographically-speaking. I didnt know about abenomics and would like to know more. Do you have any links you'd recommend about this subject?

[@mumfi3400]

Thank you for this breakdown Peter, it made allot of sense. Whats the end game for these not so optimistic outcome countries? will they be absorbed into another country or will they just "cease to exist"?

[@flyinghigh2701]

They'll be flooded by the younger populations of the middle east and Africa as famine takes hold in their countries and Europe is too old to stop it. Its already started.

[@koushikdas1992]

Other nations will gonna take over those countries.

[@michelfortier9563]

Always enlightening and educational. Keep them coming!

[@robertbelcher1493]

PETER, SUPER INFO, THANKS!

[@carolinekaplan542]

I’m 58. There are six of us from the ages of now 45 to 62. There are only 13 grandkids from the six . Other than my disabled son the kids are all college or post graduate kids. Instead of law they are into health and computer and finance jobs. We are lucky in today and age to get grandpups. I do have two grand nieces from one niece and the other niece has two kids. They are very affluent. A few of the nieces / nephews almost half are world travelers with no intentions of having kids. The girls have careers and don’t feel the need to add the stress of children. They don’t have to explain or apologize but have free choice in the matter. Two are gay but don’t want a family which is a different option from thirty years ago. Anything goes. Even some kids nowadays don’t actively seek a live in partner. This is totally different from the 1980s dual income Careers kids and pottery barn decorated perfect houses. I feel that in this instance it’s the divorce levels , fall of the nuclear family , incredible costs of raising kids at an upper upper middle class level and the acceptance of paternity not marriage across all culture and demographics that did this in. At least the dogs are cute. The kids also move away , especially from Chicago and you are lucky to see them twice a year and talk once a month. I used to speak to my father daily. It’s really not nostalgia to say that being raised in the seventies and eighties was the best. Chicago was a blast in the eighties nineties and early 2000. Now I’m on five acres in Michigan not far from the lake. Chicago is like Gotham city in a dark Batman movie at best.

[@konsumkind81]

Hi. Group 2 here. Could you maybe elaborate on the "..vanish from the world.." part, please?

[@AzizUcmakli]

Great insights! Hopefully, you'll provide a detailed discussion about North America at some point (maybe you have?). Extremely interested in how US demographics differ given the large Millennial and retiring Boomer generations. Thanks!

[@seansmith3455]

Other channels are using your videos. I love your insights.

[@philjameson292]

Just one point on Czechoslovakia being late to industrialise. The country was one of the leading manufacturers in Europe prior to WW2. In fact it was one of the reasons why Nazi Germany wanted to annexe it I think that you really mean that the country re-industrialised after the Cold War ended, which was common to many East European countries

[@HarcosokEtrendje]

Very interesting. Being Hungarian I can certainly recognize some of these trends. Have lived abroad for some years. Looking to move again. No kids and am 42. I wonder about the UK. Large part of Europe but has not been covered.

[@marcusaustralius2416]

I hope the UK gets better, there's not a lot that's great about Britain at the moment, and the level of neglect and abuse shown to my sick grandmother by the failing scottish NHS was so appalling we had to send family members back from Australia just to look after her

[@anthonyferris8912]

@@marcusaustralius2416 Take it up with Nicola Sturgeon Nicola Sturgeon. She controls the Scottish NHS…..

[@MrParlam]

your insane PM Orban will further crush Hungary down

[@liammcnabb5543]

UK has a similar demographic profile to Sweden and France, a lot of people who are 60+ compared to kids but the largest cohort is 30 - 34 (taken from the 2021 census data). The profile of all 3 is not as good as the USA however.

[@russellpengilley5924]

As Liam notes above, UK very similar to France in population pyramid, birth rate (~1.6) level of immigration and projected steady population growth. I think a big decision UK has to make is how closely it ties itself to the US. It would seem to make sense if you're as bullish on the US as Peter is, but I wonder if it would lead to brain drain that would make the demographics worse. Though I don't know if they have much choice anyway?

[@NaturalExplorerNZ]

I like how your brain doesn't turn off even when your out hiking through nature, thanks for all the content Peter

[@barrymiller3385]

You didn't seem to cover the UK and Ireland - which are still part of Europe.

[@dardalion3199]

Even before I knew this problem directly I noticed how strange it was to see so many young female nurses taking care of 70-90 year olds instead of taking care of their own babies. I knew something was wrong. This is an unintended consequence of advanced medical care. It has become too good for our own good and end-of-life care is ridiculously expensive.

[@francus7227]

That's not what's wrong with advanced end of life care.....

[@scort8888]

Christmas jacket to Yukon Cornelius hat. Nice transition!

[@1adamuk]

Germany and Italy "Cease to exist" Yeah right. Why do I subscribe to this channel again.

[@kingbee1971]

Cease to exist... in their present state. Things change.

[@nill2783]

Peter I like your content but there is one question I frequently have. You put a lot of emphasis on the population age of countries but I never hear you discuss immigration and how that can rapidly change a country’s demographic. For example many European countries are having a flood of illegal African immigrants who are usually younger. Also companies and corporations have been making production and distribution more efficient for decades to reduce the need for the large labor force the previous generation had. The improved efficiency, more capable young work force and access to immigrants and migrant workers might lubricate the system and economy to a significant extent

[@Meinjapan2112]

Peter, thanks for sharing your gifts and insights with us. I’ve been promoting your work here in Japan since I read your fantastic book and would love if you’d make a video just about Japan. We’re very hungry for your work over here. Thank you so much for your consideration and God bless you. You’re making a huge difference in helping us all understand where we are in the world.

[@JakubBazler]

I am from Poland and almost nobody talks about it. More than 2 milion young Poles in 2004-2014 (me also, but I came back) went to west of Europe looking for better pay. Very few cameback. Meanwhile almost 2 milion Ukrainians came to Poland after the frist and now second Russia-Ukrainian war. It is a replacement of the population and nobody talks about it. Some expert are even enthusiastic about these Ukrainians because we have labour now. Our politicians are clueless to this problem and neglecting that heavily. Most young people (me also) don't have kids, many don't even plan to have in the future. I am starting to think that under democracy we are doomed because voters, as they prove every election, will vote for their pleasure instead of future.

[@wotanvonedelsburg1610]

This will probably be the last battle in the whole of Europe. What Islam couldn't do before Vienna... it is now doing in favour of boundless tolerance and democratic parties that betray their own people and even openly say themselves... that they want to see the whites dead.

[@csebastian3]

I am REALLY interested in the analysis of the demographics of the Orthodox countries. Looking forward to the next part!

[@goran.subotic]

I can tell you. We're fucked big time.

[@alext2664]

This did not go well 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@LumenMichaelOne]

Thank You Peter.

[@matthewanthony8623]

Looking at the UK demographic graph, it seems to be very similar to the US with a chimney shape and lots of immigration. I wonder if Peter could speak to this as he seems to have missed this out from the US / New Zealand group

[@allisonmarlow184]

The change due to immigration is an excellent question. ❓

[@andrewimrie6413]

I know that in 2022 it was revealed that the UK has more people over the age of 65 than it has under the age of 15 for the first time in its history. So I wait for Peter’s thoughts on the UK with some trepidation!

[@curiositycloset2359]

Peter rarely talks about the UK. I think it's a kind of sleight, or on running in joke.

[@matthewredman7814]

I've noticed that. He leaves them out of everything.

[@RokinLee]

He has mentioned us before but no spotlight. Also uk’s own self inflicted implosion make it of less importance on world stage.

[@DingBatSplat]

I found it really strange that you left out the starting place of the 'industrial revolution' the UK.

[@hardwoodthought1213]

Zeihan usually avoids speaking on the UK for some reason, but his thoughts are basically that the UK has a demographic model similar to France or Sweden but lack the trade, resources or skill like they do to thrive by themselves. Thankfully, the US has left a seat at the table with Canada/Mexico/Japan as key trade partners, something that should be taken regardless of the concessions needed in a post world Brexit which looks like a bigger mistake every day that passes

[@iippo06]

Fun fact: The only group of people with above replacement fertility in England are families with both parents on welfare that have periodic involvement with the police or social services. The countries you mentioned won't disappear.

[@carstenhansen5757]

Exactly. It's the same in Denmark. Uneducated people, take advantage of the welfare, to a huge extent.

[@Martinit0]

@@carstenhansen5757 Why blame the uneducated for having kids when they actually save the country? Rich often believe that paying taxes is sufficient or they postpone having kids with all kinds of excuses. Taxes are necessary but not sufficient - we also need people to have a country. Bluntly said, who is going to wipe your ass when you are 95? Not your taxes, that is for sure. Ideal of course would be a combination, if the rich made more kids and the "uneducated" use less welfare. But in the absence of kids nothing else matters - we'd vanish into the clouds like the Minoans or the Aztecs or the Neanderthals.

[@carstenhansen5757]

@@Gary-bz1rf But what a future. A religious hell hole, like the muslim countries, that contributes with nothing constructive, to the world and fact hurts it more?

[@iippo06]

@@Gary-bz1rf These people are not low income. They're the criminal underclass. They have never worked & will never work.

[@walker9893]

@@Gary-bz1rf this is the most amazingly small minded, bumblefuck take I'm surprised to actually even see it at all. Do you think construction workers made the website you typed this comment into?

[@randallgvideos]

Only one quibble on this great video. It's not Schengen which enables residents of one country to live and work other countries, it's being in the European Union. That's why (until recently) Polish workers could go and work in the United Kingdom, which was never in the Schengen agreement, which only applies to tourists from countries not in Schengen or the EU. The Schengen rule is that citizens of non-EU or non-Schengen countries can only visit them for a maximum of 90 out of the last 180 days.

[@TheWaylandir]

Im curious as to where you feel Ireland fits into in these catagories, It seems reasonable to assume Ireland would have a trajectory like the Iberians

[@jameshopesemail]

Yes, I’d like to hear his take on Ireland too. He named nearly all other EU countries.

[@kingbee1971]

You're literally holding a supercomputer in your hand. Start here: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

[@robingannaway8262]

The beanie looks like a Kiwi possum/merino blend. Picked one up in Napier, NZ. Lightweight and very warm. Zeihan's take on Australasia would be of interest.

[@BoyanYurukov]

Hi, hope you drop the video regarding the Balkans+RU soon. I've been exploring the Bulgarian demographics for quite some time, especially researching the generational development from the 60 onwards. There are several interesting points from communist policies to stacked effects of dropped birth rate in the 70s, crisis in the 90's and rapid immigration after the wall broke. At one point 1/3 of people my age had left the country. That being said, there are some interesting signals in birthrate and especially detailed age distribution of mothers. Also, corona crisis as well as downturn of German economy and general attitudes have driven bulgarians away and there are hundreds of thousands of Bulgarians in Germany alone. The pyramid is inverted, but there is hope to stabilize on a different level after the boomers from the "oh damn I got 5 kids and somehow they all survived through puberty" generation retire, which is already underway.

[@BoyanYurukov]

Another point - economically the cooperation and consumption model is quite different. People in their 50s and 60s generally don't invest in assets as rotating crisis and corrupt governments has brought trust in the markets down. Instead, wealth is passed on to the children in the aging, but well preserved hope they'll take care of the elderly. So that means they by cars, housing, help with child care, etc. On the flip side, due to the turmoil in the 90s and despite the pick up in the beginning of the 2000s, many people worked on the gray or black market, so they either don't meet the requirements for full pension or they were insured on the minimum and paid under the table so they will get minimum pension. That in addition to their savings being wiped a couple of times, lack of financial education and willingness to save to begin with means that boomers retiring will put double the stress on the pension and health systems which were already overloaded.

[@BoyanYurukov]

Additional positive signals came as recent studies show that more and more Bulgarians see 2 and 3 children as their new target. Also, there's plenty of housing due to a construction bubble. Nearshoring jobs are only going to increase due to the shortage of labor of any sort in other markets as well as the work-from-anywhere model after covid. So this means that more and more people are looking to move and repopulate smaller cities.

[@BoyanYurukov]

That echoes partly my story too - moved after highschool from Bulgaria to Germany. Worked in IT for 17 years had a kid, came back to Bulgaria, had another kid and i know I don't have to stay in the same big city for work, but can move to anywhere and still achieve the same work balance and capital. So it's a trend is promising, however global economic downturn as well as security and political turmoil may flip that quickly. In addition ethnic mix, segregation, educational and access to healthcare discrepancies are the big elephant in the room that noone is willing to address properly and are actively used for political gain at the expense of the demographic for over 20 years now.

[@BoyanYurukov]

By the way, I pulled some data where children of Bulgarian expats are being born for the past decade and made it into a map. It's a scary video when thinking about the implications.

[@theswede5402]

Many westerners are coming and settling in places like Bulgaria and Romania because of low taxes and low costs of living, as a swede i got several foreign language job offers that pay pretty well down there. Interesting your country might become some sort of western colony in the future with digital nomads and entrepeneurs settling while the natives leave :(

[@firstislast3700]

Been waiting for this one!

[@LostManFishing]

Group 2 question: when you say by 2050s these countries will not exist, what do you mean? Will they be reformed into bigger countries or Germany and Austria will merge? How does a country simply dissappear? Invaded, breakdown into anarchy, etc... 100% just curious . Thanks

[@bighands69]

Germany used to be Prussia.

[@Ophaganestopolis]

He probably means a loss of international relevance, not a wasteland devoid of humans. He's just being dramatic.

[@LostManFishing]

100% ... plus the reason why the number of refugees coming into this part of Europe is so high at the moment

[@yopyop3241]

@@Ophaganestopolis They’re going to become like, say, the Bahamas. Leaves in the wind that get tossed around by the currents from their much more powerful neighbors.

[@bigbubba4314]

Sounds like lots of farmland will be available for all those automated farm machines with artificial intelligence

[@jameskirgan1605]

Brilliant thank you. Please take a few minutes to break down Australia.

[@daniell1483]

As a 30-something in the US, the future looks really unstable. Europe is the area of the world I've been most interested in all my life, so seeing the dire warning for Europe is frankly scary. I really hope things turn out better than the demographics suggest, but fear they won't.

[@drscopeify]

Have you looked in to moving out west? If you want the best the USA has to offer it's out in the west, have a look at Boise, Salt Lake city, Nevada, Eastern Washington, Tri cities? Also places like the mountains east of Sacramento is fucking awesome place to be mountains, valleys, endless historic sites from the gold rush era and Vineyards, lots of affordable houses, tons of tech jobs in Sacramento area, affordable houses up in the mountains with big land 5+ acres with Gorgeous towns like out of a story book, Placerville CA, Auburn CA, Jackson CA and so many others just dozens of awesome towns, all these towns are fucking magical. If you want cheap living look at the MASSIVE area about 1 hour drive circle around Redding California it's super cheap, not many job options but just everything, mountains, rivers, cheap houses on big land. For jobs in Tech you can't beat Salt Lake sooo many tech jobs but its not cheap there, for cheap living and tons of Tech jobs look at Huntsville Alabama a friend moved there not only did he score a job in Tech with almost the same pay as in Seattle where I live but he bought his house for cash for dirt cheap, he is living the dream

[@daniell1483]

@@drscopeify I''d love to move honestly, but I've got people here in the Midwest I can't leave. Lots of other states I'd like to be, but I'd have to cut all my roots to make that kind of move, y'know?

[@drscopeify]

​@@daniell1483 Yeah, sorry, I am also stuck where I am in Seattle. Work, family, its very hard to move no doubt.

[@schrire39]

The Schengen Agreement is an agreement among certain (not all) EU states for passport free travel within a defined area, the so called Schengen Zone. Peter has confused this with Freedom of Movement which is an entirely separate concept. Freedom of Movement is the right for EU citizens to settle and work in any other EU state. For example, if you fly from Ireland to France, you have to show your passport because Ireland is not in the Schengen area. But Ireland is most definitely an EU state and an Irish citizen wanting to live and work in France has complete Freedom of Movement to do so.

[@brunokunz1000]

The main issue with most demographic analysis is the lack of acknowledgement, by its proponents, to the complexity of the topic. Demographics is more than just children born, people dying, and migrants moving around. Also the premise of the whole argument must first be examined. The premise of this video and the others in the series is that population decline is bad for business. But that might not even be the case. In Germany it has been reported that switching to EV production may reduce employment in automotive production by 500,000 people (but who really knows). Other industries may chose to automate a part of their industry to save on the labor. Don't forget that the worker is just a cost input to any industry, and every industry tries to reduce this cost if it is cost effective to do so.. The effort will be redoubled as labor cost goes up. When you think of production of industry you have to realize that production is set to what can be sold domestically and perhaps internationally depending on the business. If population falls so will production to match that fall, and so will employment to match the lower production. I do not believe that Germany, as Mr. Zeihan states, will disappear. In fact Germans may benefit from lower housing costs in the future, and perhaps cheaper food costs as less food may need to be imported. The point of this post is to make people aware of the complexity of the change in demographics that is mostly ignored.

[@TokyoTaisu]

Points.

[@crescent4996]

It is not in the interests of elites for housing costs to go down, or for the common man to own property going forward. Their idea of the future has been stated, "You will own nothing and be happy." But their focus is on the former not latter part of that statement.

[@brunokunz1000]

@@crescent4996 Yes, that has nothing to do with demographics.

[@crescent4996]

@@brunokunz1000 It does. The point was that there are more factors at work that what you laid out working against reduced population being allowed to benefit people. The UN has already drawn up plans for dealing with low birth rates, and it involves mass immigration, which will maintain property value for those that own that property. Current 2050 population projection for Germany is 79 million, only 3 million less than today. When Peter says Germany or countries will 'vanish', he means economic irrelevance, which will by way of a hollowed out middle class, and lowered living standards. Except for those on top. Germany will still have people, if from elsewhere, living in these population areas, it just won't be the dynamic highly productive export model that has existed the last few decades.

[@brunokunz1000]

@@crescent4996 I know that their are more involved factors than I stated, that was the point of my comment. As far as I know the UN has nothing to do with the immigration policy of the Euro Zone. Also when you speak for peter you are speculating on his intention. If that is what Peter meant to say then he should have said that. Also it is doubtful that Germany will sink to economic irrelevance. Now that may be true if the demographic problem was just a German problem, but it is not. Also your ideas on lower living standards, and a hollowed out middle class is very dubious indeed. How will mass immigration maintain high property value if the middle class is hollowed out? Who will have the money to keep the values up? You must see the global problem more as ratio. Lower tides will lower all boats.

[@bjornr.bjornsson4053]

Free movement for work / settling is independent of Schengen. Schengen is border travel control only. Still most EU/EEA nations are part of Schengen, the holdouts being Bulgaria, Ireland and Romania (& UK before exiting EU). Additionally Switzerland is part of Schengen while not a part of EU/EEA.

[@nikolavitorovic6857]

As a Serbian, I can't wait for the next episode.

[@alext2664]

You’ll need to keep waiting 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@igormitrovic2838]

Can you do a video on demographics and geopolitics of Serbia?

[@hififlipper]

Cheers from Austria....the living dead greet you..

[@kingbee1971]

Your sense of humor may save you. :)

[@jaja3359]

The world is changing rapidly, lets hope there will be an invention to save us before we are vanished in 2050

[@pastorelorenzo2720]

Italy here. Same.

[@elliottstevens8564]

Do not die!!! Throw off post modern mental state and start shagging!!!

[@NothingIsKnown00]

“60% of your income in taxes”. This requires context. I lived in both Sweden and the US with above average income. Income taxes were comparable. But you may include sales, fuel and alcohol taxes which are much higher in Sweden. It also depends on how you count payroll taxes.

[@bighands69]

US income taxes are lower than Sweden for the vast majority of workers.

[@NothingIsKnown00]

Well, I guess it depends on how how you define "lower". Sweden is supposedly the most heavily taxed country in the world and the US a neoliberal wonderland. I'd bet that, for mid-low income workers the difference is way way smaller than people imagine.

[@michaelstevens9256]

Adjust for things like medical spend

[@roystreet1395]

My grand-nephew in Brittany has three children. Lots of kids around when I visit. Vive la France!

[@twinrg]

Thanks Peter for your insightful demographics roundup for the European continent. However, your brief analysis did not include the U.K, Ireland, Greece, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland...Btw, what the future holds up for Israel and Turkey (albeit these nations are not in Europe they have some impact on its economic development). Thanks Heaps dear Peter. Looking forward for your next eye-opening series of analytics.

[@Terra-YT]

Wow Zeihan this might be my favourite video of yours yet. You're a total inspiration and actually because of seeing your success I've decided to start making videos too! Keep grinding, your hard work clearly pays off!

[@therightshow5928]

Cool.

[@Namesjeff-xz3ov]

Nice bro good luck!

[@untitled6391]

Lol people who haven't seen you spam this same comment on every video think you are being genuine

[@LuckyOne3749]

Must you repeat yourself in every new Zeihan video, annoying to say the least

[@qetuow]

In my town in Germany the city centre is full of hearing aid shops, opticians, orthotic shoe shops and the occasional cafe. The only time it truly comes alive is when the farmer’s market rolls in twice a week, and all the pensioners emerge from every corner.

[@corvuscornix8143]

I think it would be interesting to study the demographics of EU all together as well, even including current candidates, instead of focusing per country as well. Because of the freedom of movement and market unity.

[@vinniechan]

DW recently did a documentary on migration

[@verified.my2cents]

Have a look at Eurostat's Population projections in the EU, available on the web. Here's one stat "Over the period 2019 to 2100, Eurostat’s projections suggest there will be 312.5 million births and 427.5 million deaths in the EU-27, equivalent to a net reduction of 115.0 million inhabitants as a result of natural changes in the population. The cumulated net migration is projected to contribute with an increase of 84.3 million persons, resulting in an overall decrease of 30.8 million inhabitants in the total population."

[@brianjonker510]

Indeed. Peter is a cheer leader for the USA but their is a lot of internal net migration between states. I those numbers would be similar to the net migration within the Schengen area.

[@vinniechan]

@@verified.my2cents I think the difference is the US has federal tax but the EU doesn't have some sort of EU taxation hence some.form.fiscal union Sure there are redistribution among member states but so long as they are sovereign countries there will be some friction and imbalance

[@AmeliaDi70]

thanks for ur input zeihan. appreciate it

[@vincentphelps6325]

In addition to the lower birth rate the increased attrition rate due to "deaths of despair" and a generalized decrease in health are going to accelerate the situation.

[@borislavborisov82]

I am waiting for the next part as well. :)

[@swtexan6502]

Germany attempted to create more "elbow room" about 80 years ago. I think they referred to it as lebensraum.

[@jense.6920]

a austrian painter did this... and it didnt end well for my country... after watching now the first videos from this series i understand why my/our government floods the country with immigrants... But: ~50% of them work and the other 50% living from welfare.

[@homersimpson408]

I agree that demographic crunch will be a problem but I'm not sure its gonna be as catastrophic as you think. There are ways to ameliorate the demographic issues (immigration, automation, outsourcing, etc.) and most of these countries do still have large amounts of younger people-just not an ideal amount. Furthermore the average age of retirement is rising. Better health outcomes in older people means they work longer. Also-the Swedish model might provide a blueprint of how to increase birthrates to a steady level-through financial incentives in the form of not only tax breaks but strong maternity AND paternity leave. Nations like China might choose less ethical alternatives (i.e. banning abortions outright, forcing women out of the workplace, etc.)

[@madhouse8301]

I believe Hungary has implemented a child policy to increase their population. Although I don’t know the details of the policy, I look forward to seeing the results. It would be good to see more incentives rather than forcible measures for sure.

[@use1kcf]

Swedish men arent "forced" to take time off when their kids are born, but they are paid to if they choose and thus they do the vast majority of the time.

[@tymciach5003]

Swedish Men, you mean Somali and Afghans 😂😂😂😂?

[@andreborges73]

what about the aging factor of all these countries? How will Europe as a group of countries be able to compete with surrounding countries? For how much longer will Europe be the consumer market it has been for the past 2x decades? How the decreasing population affects the labor market. We are already feeling the side effects of that.

[@mxv456]

I don't understand why he doesn't talk about post colonial immigration. In Spain, it takes 2 years to become a citizen if you're from Latin America, which gives a huge pool of young people that can and do come to settle and find better opportunities.

[@bighands69]

You think Spain is in the economic standing to do that?

[@mossing234]

He has covered it several times. In this instance it's actually a cultural issue with the former colonizing powers. Part of the reason why the US and New Zealand are in such strong positions is that as a colonized countries their cultures based on the time and place are very open to someone conservative to immigration. You really don't see that in Europe or to be fair China either.

[@joaquincimas1707]

@@bighands69 Spain add in 2022 600K migrants, 70% of them from LATAM. So yes, we are in the financial situation for now. Because theres demand for migrants to come.

[@mxv456]

@mossing234 Yes, I saw that in another video but I don't think I understood his point. So the argument is that some cultures give immigrants more equal opportunities than others? And then that young educated workers will only go to places where they find the best conditions? I don't see how that eliminates the immigration to Spain since the hurdles (legal, linguistic and social) are much lower than for US and NZ. I don't know it first hand but I can imagine that any child of a Latin American immigrant will not have significant disadvantages compared to children from Spanish ancestry.

[@mossing234]

@@mxv456 It's not just the material conditions but also social acceptance. It's why in Europe you see more cultural enclaves. This may sound strange but most immigrants who will want to and not just stay because they have nowhere else to go would prefer social acceptance not just a minority status.

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

Oversimplified, with way to broad strokes, quite exaggerated in some parts, but still so so good and on point.