Does Peace Have a Chance in Ukraine?

More than two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, trends in the war seem discouraging. Ukraine's supplies of manpower and munitions are diminishing, and there appear to be serious obstacles in Washington and Europe to continuing flows of large-scale assistance. Can Ukraine realistically aspire to driving Russian forces out of Ukraine? What might the implications of a long-term stalemate be? Is a negotiated settlement viable? What can and should Washington do under the circumstances?
To address these questions and more, join our conversation featuring George Beebe, Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute, Samuel Charap, Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at the Rand Corporation, and Liana Fix, Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Kelley Vlahos, Senior Advisor at the Quincy Institute, moderated.
Download the full webinar transcript here:
quincyinst.s3.amazonaws.com/w...

[@AgnieszkaNishka]

With exception of Liana Fix, excellent discussion. Ms. Fix has no idea that Russia has won war of attrition, b/c Ukraine is running out of men and NATO cannot produce enough weapons for Ukraine, and longer fighting will go on, more men and land Ukraine will loose.

[@kneelingcatholic]

she's obviously ex delta force or german shpetsnuts those people are tough as nails!

[@kneelingcatholic]

😅

[@yardmanharry3729]

These people is exactly what's wrong with our world and this conflict. They're discussing amongst themselves and they're all saying the same thing, so disappointing. Expected more!

[@kateporter5841]

"If the New York Times is to be believed..." Ohhhh, that's what's wrong with these people!

[@markkierznowski6121]

As David Icke says - You can always tell when it's part of the Agenda. No dissent is ever allowed.

[@benitochia8623]

The speakers seemed afraid to speak plainly and speaked carefuly in convoluted manners because truth is difficult for Americans to accept. The exception is George Beebe.

[@AntPictures]

Quite impressed with the balanced talk that happened here. Usually discussions are rather one sided.

[@the_forbinproject2777]

LoL sarcasim at it best !

[@alexbort3082]

Ukraine can stop it any moment

[@strongdecaf3729]

3 speakers, but only 1 has actual speaking skills. 😑

[@douggylas4299]

Character insults only insult the insulter.

[@jerzyzajaczkowski8537]

Peace was already there, but they did not respect it.

[@davidl.7317]

What are you talking about? Russia invaded and waged war on Ukraine killing tens of thousands. What peace?

[@michaelwalls4346]

I'm curious how Liana Fox can imply that Donald Trump would support Russia and Putin more than Ukraine? How is this concretely reflected in Trump's previous policies on the Ukraine/Russia conflagration?

[@yourbestguess]

She believes the propaganda, as do many people, even those who should know better.

[@douggylas4299]

It’s a direct quote from trump…

[@markkierznowski6121]

No peace anywhere American is involved.

[@thersmg2]

I wonder how mrs Liana easily speaks about price that Ukrainian side should pay in lives. "I believe that Ukraine can win....", so lets open your eyes and take a look a little.

[@the_forbinproject2777]

Might be of interest who funds this institute;- Substantial funding has also come from the Ford Foundation, (has given a great deal of money to left-wing and center-left organizations) the Carnegie Corporation of New York, ( funds left wing ideals - calls its founder a "robber baron" !) the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, ( left leaning or though some sources differ ) and Schumann Center for Media and Democracy. ( Democratic Party and left-wing advocacy group politics.)

[@lassel1344]

Peace in Ukraine is nothing for NATO has been made clear several times. NATO opposed the Minsk agreement in 2015, it was revealed in interviews with Professor Stephen Cohen who followed all communication between the US and Russia before he passed away in 2020. NATO also opposed the peace draft from Istanbul in the spring of 2022 that the parties accepted. The Rand corporation has already written the manual for the conflict in 2019. This is evident in a report on Ukraine 2019 where Nordstream is also mentioned.

[@sparkyfromel]

I'm worried , Samuel Shara talk and I have to rewind three times before I make sense that his words are like a soufle , a superb pastry made of hot air obviously a Rand product

[@stuartwray6175]

Why are you worried? When Samuel Charap speaks I have to rewind several times before I can assimilate what he's saying. In the end, his elaborate utterances ring hollow. I disagree with you, by the way. Lol

[@cornellencar]

Liana Fox, Russia reacted to Georgia in 2018, and it staied there for a couple of weeks, didn't occupy it. So why are you using it as an example of Putin's future intentions. In fact the war with Georgia refutes everything you are saying and it seems you cannot grasp the points why is that, because "Russia"!

[@maryburke1351]

Peace and Ukraine will never be achieved as long as Biden. And his administration and NATO are in power. I Pray that Putin will show them and end this war on his terms.Thank you, President Putin.You are a great leader that will be remembered in history

[@jimpaljamp5355]

😂😂😂😂😂@Samuel Charapstein... Rand M.I.C corporation top advisor.... ...Liana is completly delusional 😂😂😂...

[@kasunanastasiabachatasensu386]

Can someone tell me why fighting washing machines this hard and how come washing machines have a advantage now

[@douggylas4299]

Russo-phobia? Or sarcasm, hard to tell

[@srbislavn]

Hahaha ..... they don't know where is left .....

[@stuartwray6175]

'they don't know where is left' - what does that mean in English?

[@Ogole-oye]

This conflict with Russia has already been decided. The aid only serves to drag out the inevitable outcome. 1) It doesn't matter how much funding or access to weapons they can get, without the human resource, this is a vain exercise. And this idea that it buys time, for what exactly? It's not like all of a sudden Ukraine is going to magically have soldiers. They don't grow on trees. Not even those sent for training would be enough to offset the disparity to Russia. 2) The fact that Ukraine has become totally dependent on the western partners means, Russia achieved one of its key objectives which was to neutralize Ukraine's military capacity. 3) The aspect of the seeming slow territorial gains is also a part of the strategy now that they have substantially weakened the military capabilities they can afford to drag the conflict into a battle of attrition that minimizes loses for Russia while weakening Ukraine. Also this brings the war to a pace Russia is able to maintain for many more years to come which would outlast the western funding. 4) Remember for Russia, for as long as the conflict stands, they have the advantage not only in weapons but soldiers on top of that, their economy is growing because of the war so while this prolonged fued empties European coffers it extends the shelf life of the Russian economy. This novel idea of a Ukrainian fight back is a pipe dream, if they failed to with greater resources when the opponent was still not fully organized, it's unrealistic to expect them make gains. Soon this will fade like the many global conflicts we have.

[@davidl.7317]

I respectively disagree with your analysis and bullet points. I would ask you to consider how long Russia can continue on a wartime economy while having their military equipment attrited while not having a strong ability to also have any export economy. I don't think it can last. I don't think Ukraine will sue for peace. They will fight longer than Russia can.

[@Ogole-oye]

@@davidl.7317 Well the reality is Russia resources have already outlasted the western predictions. And they will outlast Ukrainians resources...it's not like Ukraine has any of its own and they are already outnumbered and outgunned. And perhaps the most critical aspect is human resources. Even if they got weapons, they simply don't have the man power to fight. And the Russians seem prepared for a long haul in the war, they've changed tactics to a slow grind which manages resources while limiting loses.

[@MuKa-oz8oi]

I totally disagree with Liana on the possibility that Russia should be pushed to near defeat before it can accept negotiation. Ukraine does not have that capability to prevail over Russia. Ukraine is short of willing manpower to continue with the war. Giving weapons without motivated manpower is a waste effort. Trust me that 61 billion will not change the battle field situation in favor of Ukraineans. Let us go for negotiation to stop the canage...read about the 1962 missile crisis between Russia and the USA.

[@williamjacque6612]

Peace will come to Ukraine and Russia once Putin orders all Russian Military to leave all of Ukraine, that means the Donbas Region and all of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. It is really that simple, it is up to Putin if Russia wants Peace. As Ukraine gets more advanced weapons that can reach deeper into Russia Putin will realize the Military strenght of Ukraine supported by EU and NATO and the USA.

[@dirgsuite5546]

Things are always very simple when you are blind to what happens in the field. Ukraine had advanced weapons and used them all up. Putin has already faced the combined West and is still taking territory. The West has weaponized Ukraine and trained Ukrainians since 2014 but yet Russia has the upperhand and the Ukrainians critical infrastructure receives one blow after the other. Look beyond the propaganda. Don't state what you want to happen but look what is happening.

[@the_forbinproject2777]

a Peace on the Wests terms or Russians ?

[@cornellencar]

Russians said they will talk but will not stop fighting. As in the matter of trust, it is the US and Ukraine and EU that have a proven record of not complying with terms of agreements. "Rules based order" and so forth...

[@MuKa-oz8oi]

George , you are spot on. JFK said that clearly as an advice to maintain world peace.

[@yourbestguess]

Beebe is the best

[@yourbestguess]

Mrs Fix seems to forget that Trump started sending weapons to Ukraine.

[@justingoretoy1628]

Georgia started the South Ossetia war, and it was Kiev who refused to fulfill their obligations under Minsk and then Minsk 2. Zelensky even tried to get the nationalist batallions to move back their weaponry, they called him a loser to his face. The video aired on Ukrainian TV and was covered by The Grayzone. The reason Ukraine cheated on Minsk and Minsk 2 was because they saw it as accepting a loss to the Russia-backed separatists and correctly concluded that it would prevent them from joining NATO in the long run.

[@jaarneal]

Unsure where people get this idea from. Yeah, Ukraine broke the Minsk agreements routinely. Russia was also breaking the Minsk agreements routinely. They were leading, organizing, equipping, and staffing their militias in eastern Ukraine. Putin and his government still deny, to this day, that this happened. The first of two lies told was that these forces were “separatists”. Their aim was not separatism, it was to make eastern Ukraine part of Russia. The second lie was that Russia had nothing to do with these forces, and had no control of them. The truth was that these forces would not have existed without Russia. The Donbas war was Putin’s land grab, finally fulfilled in the fall 2022 annexations. The Minsk agreements are a red herring, and tbh that’s what Putin wanted them to be.

[@justingoretoy1628]

@@jaarneal @jaarneal The Minsk Accords were an agreement between Kiev and the separatists, Russia couldn't have "broken" Minsk because their only obligations were the same as the French and Germans, guarantors. Of COURSE Russia helped arm and train the Russia-backed separatists, it was a proxy civil war, the US helped arm and train the Kiev side, it's how wars by proxy work. You are mistaken regarding Russian intentions regarding the baby republics. The separatist did I deed wish to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia, but the Russians insisted on continuing the peace process and refused to acknowledge the referendums to join them. Reason being that it was in their national interests to keep Donetsk and Lugansk in Ukraine to keep them as the pro-Russia side of the political weight in the country. The Minsk Agreements were no red herring, they were essentially surrender terms for Kiev, and as such were extremely favorable to the Russians and the separatists they backed. That's why they tried to make Minsk and especially Minsk 2 work for so long, at first Zelensky tried to get the nationalist militias to pull back weapons as per Minsk protocols, he was laughed at and called a loser on public tv by Azov guys. The video is available on KZbin, it was the Ukrainian side who didn't want to carry out what they viewed as humiliating Minsk surrender terms. You are wrong on almost every point here.

[@jaarneal]

@@justingoretoy1628 I encourage you to review the Minsk accords, where signatories (of which Russia was one), did have obligations under the agreement to prevent the arming of the pro-Russian armed groups. And for what it's worth, the US abided by this portion of the agreement... given that it did not begin giving Ukraine lethal aid until 2017. Compare this to what Russia had done up to that point. You saying of course is an admission of the one key fact that Russia has continuously denied. I encourage you, again, to review what Russia has said about its role in the conflict. And then consider that the reasons for its denials are predicated on the notion that arming forces in order to take the territory of a neighbor state is not at all the same as arming the internationally-recognized government of that state. And arming a "separatist" group is particularly bad when the goal is to eventually take that disputed territory for yourself. That's the reason that Putin consistently denied leading, arming, staffing, equipping the pro-Russian groups. The referendums conducted by the so-called LPR and DPR were not about joining Russia. Such referenda did not occur until the Fall of 2022. Earlier referenda had to do with independence/autonomy of those regions. In fact, many poll workers who worked for those referenda said that they weren't even about declaring independence from the Kyiv government. That is how disorganized and rushed those referenda were.

[@justingoretoy1628]

@@jaarneal Actually, I would encourage YOU to go back and reread both Minsk 1 & 2, since you clearly have no idea what you're talking about and they are quite short. Russia was a GUARANTOR in Minsk, the other two guarantors were France and Germany, and the US had no obligations under Minsk because we had nothing to do with them, that was one of our problems with the process. Let me repeat this for you, it looks like you didn't fully read my last response, THE ACCORDS THEMSELVES WERE BETWEEN THE SEPARATISTS AND KIEV. Not between Kiev and Moscow, not between Kiev and Washington. Minsk 2 brings up pulling foreign troops out of Ukraine, but that was point 10 (if I recall correctly) and Ukraine never even did point 1. Regarding Russia's involvement, the Russians do propaganda, we do propaganda. We pretended we had nothing to do with Ukraine violating Minsk, which we did, the Russians pretended they didn't arm and train the Separatists, which they did. This should be easy to grasp. The referendums were to leave Ukraine with the intent of joining Russia, the Crimean annexation was often brought up. You are somewhat informed on The Ukraine War I can see, but you are wrong on a few key and crucial points which completely distort your picture. Let me try and simplify it for you, we wanted to bring NATO to Ukraine, we coup'd their government, our puppets started a civil war with Russia's puppets, Russia won the war twice, that's how we got Minsk 1 & 2, we told our puppets they didn't have to take the L and armed them for this current phase of the war. Oh and as for us arming legitimate Ukraine, I call BS on that, we helped coup their government, that puppet govt. legitimacy is very much in question in my book.

[@justingoretoy1628]

@@jaarneal @jaarneal Actually, I would encourage YOU to go back and reread both Minsk 1 & 2, since you clearly have no idea what you're talking about and they are quite short. Russia was a GUARANTOR in Minsk, the other two guarantors were France and Germany, and the US had no obligations under Minsk because we had nothing to do with them, that was one of our problems with the process. Let me repeat this for you, it looks like you didn't fully read my last response, THE ACCORDS THEMSELVES WERE BETWEEN THE SEPARATISTS AND KIEV. Not between Kiev and Moscow, not between Kiev and Washington. Minsk 2 brings up pulling foreign troops out of Ukraine, but that was point 10 (if I recall correctly) and Ukraine never even did point 1. Regarding Russia's involvement, the Russians do propaganda, we do propaganda. We pretended we had nothing to do with Ukraine violating Minsk, which we did, the Russians pretended they didn't arm and train the Separatists, which they did. This should be easy to grasp. The referendums were to leave Ukraine with the intent of joining Russia, the Crimean annexation was often brought up. You are somewhat informed on The Ukraine War I can see, but you are wrong on a few key and crucial points which completely distort your picture. Let me try and simplify it for you, we wanted to bring NATO to Ukraine, we coup'd their government, our puppets started a civil war with Russia's puppets, Russia won the war twice, that's how we got Minsk 1 & 2, we told our puppets they didn't have to take the L and armed them for this current phase of the war.