The State of the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman

As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the mood has become increasingly dark. While territorial changes continue to be minor, Russia’s slow but steady advances along the front lines could become large losses for Ukraine. This is especially likely if Kyiv is unable to overcome worsening shortages of both material and personnel. As military aid continues to be stalled in Congress, the head of U.S. European Command has warned that Ukraine may be in danger of losing the war unless it soon receives additional ammunition from Washington. Amidst all this apparent doom and gloom, how concerned should we be about the trajectory of the war, and what glimmers of hope may still lie on the horizon? To discuss all of this and more, Mike Kofman joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.
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[@sobmogx]

I feel like listening to Mike for the last several years I've earned an Associates degree in force generation

[@mat3714]

And it contributed to my misanthropy when people speak about Ukraine around me hehehe

[@jamesgunn9594]

Mike hasn't a clue. The 60 billion passed by congress is for weapon value. Older US weapons and munitions can be valued as little as 5% of cost so the package in theory could be as much as 800 billion. Also g7 are preparing a 50 billion package for the summit in june using interest on Russian assets. If passed ukraine can buy more of US older stock at a fraction of the price. USA has over 400 million 155mm howitzer shells alone. Also nato are ralking about an additional 100 billion aid package too. Mike hasn't a clue.

[@StewartChaimson]

Thank you, very interesting and informative!

[@gloomy5487]

What have you actually learnt? Nothing, just bullshit spitting.

[@gregc8567]

@@gloomy5487 tass?

[@jamesgunn9594]

Mike hasn't a clue. The 60 billion passed by congress is for weapon value. Older US weapons and munitions can be valued as little as 5% of cost so the package in theory could be as much as 800 billion. Also g7 are preparing a 50 billion package for the summit in june using interest on Russian assets. If passed ukraine can buy more of US older stock at a fraction of the price. USA has over 400 million 155mm howitzer shells alone. Also nato are ralking about an additional 100 billion aid package too. Mike hasn't a clue.

[@Annou7la]

I enjoyed the part where it’s asked “who are European saving this equipment for”. The answer is simple, obvious and historically inescapable: “each other”

[@dEcmircEd]

yeah right. have you set foot in europe in the last 60 years ? I almost hope you're a paid troll

[@looinrims]

Yeah because Luxembourg is very sure the French are coming for them Or something Schengen area exists btw

[@Annou7la]

@@looinrims I forgot about the Schengen treaty. Well as long as we PINKY sweared and we signed a piece of paper then intra European war is impossible. That’s what Europeans thought when the 30 years war ended. Then when the French revolutionary wars, then the napoleonic, then ww1, ww2. Basically for the past 2000 years europe has been in a constant state of war. This isn’t even an exaggeration. Open wiki and search for major armed conflicts in Europe. It’s a fucking blood ocean. I mean the longest period Europe has been without major wars was 1946-2022. And I’m excluding those “insignificant” things like genocide in the balkans in the nineties. Can you blame them?

[@jamesgunn9594]

Mike hasn't a clue. The 60 billion passed by congress is for weapon value. Older US weapons and munitions can be valued as little as 5% of cost so the package in theory could be as much as 800 billion. Also g7 are preparing a 50 billion package for the summit in june using interest on Russian assets. If passed ukraine can buy more of US older stock at a fraction of the price. USA has over 400 million 155mm howitzer shells alone. Also nato are ralking about an additional 100 billion aid package too. Mike hasn't a clue.

[@johnwalsh4857]

Stalled past tense.

[@jamesgunn9594]

Mike hasn't a clue. The 60 billion passed by congress is for weapon value. Older US weapons and munitions can be valued as little as 5% of cost so the package in theory could be as much as 800 billion. Also g7 are preparing a 50 billion package for the summit in june using interest on Russian assets. If passed ukraine can buy more of US older stock at a fraction of the price. USA has over 400 million 155mm howitzer shells alone. Also nato are ralking about an additional 100 billion aid package too. Mike hasn't a clue.

[@simonball2731]

You have just deserted Ukraine for seven months, just so one person can keep their job, if you want to be the worlds hegemony, then do your job.

[@Hexiad]

No American ever voted for hegemony or empire.

[@SkyGlitchGalaxy]

You have no clue of the degree of support US provided Ukraine.😂😂😂 Seriously.

[@Hexiad]

No American ever voted for hegemony.

[@trogdortpennypacker6160]

The only issue is we often talk about the West increasing production, we make it seem like Russia is not investing heavily to produce more and started the process much earlier. We know they have tripled their imports of industrial machinery and are building new factories. So while I like Kofman I disagree that the gap is going to narrow, but I do agree both sides are going to have more munitions in 2025. Kofman is normally pretty good but he is falling into that analyst problem where they forget the enemy responds.

[@Rokaize]

Russia can’t compete with the unified west when it comes to production

[@Rokaize]

@@jakeb3157 Right. That’s why the best hope is for continued European support. Which relies on Poland, Germany and the United States. As long as the US is helping the situation can be stable I would imagine

[@Slavic_Goblin]

@@Rokaize IF "the unified west" switched to wartime production, then you'd be correct. But we're unlikely to do that.

[@jamesgunn9594]

Mike hasn't a clue. The 60 billion passed by congress is for weapon value. Older US weapons and munitions can be valued as little as 5% of cost so the package in theory could be as much as 800 billion. Also g7 are preparing a 50 billion package for the summit in june using interest on Russian assets. If passed ukraine can buy more of US older stock at a fraction of the price. USA has over 400 million 155mm howitzer shells alone. Also nato are ralking about an additional 100 billion aid package too. Mike hasn't a clue.

[@Ultranationalist987]

If you brought us Michael kofman on these amazing discussion, you deserves a noble Journalism prize, a brilliant and Outstanding experienced security and conflict analyst, Michael kofman is remembered on his book "The war on the Rock" humble and Wiseman. Thank you for you efforts in such fascinating episode. Slave Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@keirswaine2183]

I think Mr Kofman is the most objective commentator on this disastrous war on Ukraine I've come across to date. Thanks to all contributors for their sobering thoughts and painful insights.

[@mtnregnar198]

😂

[@michaelthayer5351]

I often hear the phrase, "Russian efforts are only possible because the Soviet Union was a thing." but that also applies to the West where their support of Ukraine is only possible because of their own Cold War stockpiles. America has not built a new Abrams tank from scratch since 1996, it's only been upgrading or using existing chassis, and Europeans are in a similar position. While the Russians can only build 200 tanks a year, that's more than the West can manage at the moment. Additionally there is a 3 year backlog on orders for new Patriot missiles, among other munitions and artillery production is only just beginning to ramp up. The point of a stockpile is to expend it until your production catches up to demand, so while the Soviet Legacy might be being expended it's unclear how much longer the BMP-1s, T-62s, and T-55s would have been relevant anyways in a hypothetical NATO confrontation or conflict over Siberia's sovereignty with China.

[@soothsayer2406]

Game over

[@guydreamr]

For Russia, that is. The aid bill passed.

[@vasilijevukadinovic6843]

​@guydreamr and that will put them ahead in what category? Not missles artillery air defense men etc. Why are u people so easily brainwashed. Use your head. We are letting evil people destroy Ukraine and its people. I'm done but all the signs for you to understand what is actually happening are there. Wake up

[@babahanuman83]

​@@guydreamrfor Ukraine as a natopawn

[@paulzx5034]

​@@guydreamrSee you next year

[@guydreamr]

​@@babahanuman83for your puppet master in the Kremlin.

[@Lbcyoung]

These interviewers should at least be informed that Michael is not a futurologist. They missed a golden opportunity to ask him about past developments, current trends, and force-structural issues from a strictly military standpoint, rather than constantly ask him what the future will look like. The War on the Rocks podcast does a way better job in this sense.

[@ZarconVideo]

Always like to hear what Mike has to say. I’d like to recommend Dr Phillip Karber for the show on Ukraine. He can give a great breakdown of ways to counter Russia and the tactics behind recent battles.

[@jamesgunn9594]

Mike hasn't a clue. The 60 billion passed by congress is for weapon value. Older US weapons and munitions can be valued as little as 5% of cost so the package in theory could be as much as 800 billion. Also g7 are preparing a 50 billion package for the summit in june using interest on Russian assets. If passed ukraine can buy more of US older stock at a fraction of the price. USA has over 400 million 155mm howitzer shells alone. Also nato are ralking about an additional 100 billion aid package too. Mike hasn't a clue.

[@pravinsarvade7608]

What happened to game changer Westan weapons like Abrams and leopard and hiding Challenger tank and if Ukrainian army million strong than they only lost 31000 soldiers why they need mobilization

[@gregc8567]

what happened to BSF? Why so many fires in ruzzia? What FSB do for people of Crocus massacre? why did VDV leave so much kit at Hostomel? Deputy Minister of Defense corrupt? after 2 years all still "going according to plan" ? radioactive floods?? good thing its a police state or people would protest more!

[@seancidy6008]

Ukraine is _still_ not conscripting 18 to 24 years' olds, why not? If, as Michael Kofman says, Russia has a 2024 window of opportunity, then _surely_ this is the critical point in time at which to call up the most combat effective age group to stop Russia making good its temporary advantage. It seems to me the Ukrainian government is giving weight to political rather than military considerations in failing to effectively draw on their manpower reserves.

[@wolfgangdurst267]

manpower reserve is very limited considering that around 600,000 young ukrainian men live a good life in western europe. These men won't go back and fight in the trenches. In additiion there were reports saying that a sizable portion of young ukrainian men trying to escape conscription. If you pay some people enough money you won't have to join the armed forces of ukraine. Lastly Zelenskyy mentioned that it needs 7 taxpayers to fund one ukrainian soldier. Manpower shortage will continue to be an issue for Ukraine.

[@timthetiny7538]

Because their demography is fragile. 6 million women gave already left and will lively never return. Even if Ukraine wins, theyre probably terminal as a nation at this point

[@dirremoire]

Wait. Ukraine is invaded by an evil dictator and the only way it can get enough soldiers to repel the invader is by mass conscription?

[@gregc8567]

@@timthetiny7538 putin is 200'ing ruzzian future - its epic losses already

[@justasimpleguy7211]

@@gregc8567 You don't know diddly. Artillery is the King of the Battlefield, Russia outguns Ukraine by anywhere from 5-1 to 10-1 in artillery but somehow people like you think that translates into tremendous losses for Russia and moderate losses for Ukraine. This isn't even taking into consideration the even greater advantage Russia has in missiles and glide bombs. Here's the truth. Ukraine casualties are several times higher than Russian casualties, and this with a population 1/5 of Russia. Do the math if you're capable. It's simple addition and subtraction.

[@fernandesac9703]

Just listen to Michael kofmans last years assessment it will show how accurate he is..

[@GlenAnderson-lj5bc]

I did and it was in accurate . Just guestimate these scenarios. To keep his job and sell books on conjuncture and speculation. Unless you are granted special access , when everyone meets and makes plans for the next counter offences. I can't see any point of listening to this crap

[@simonball2731]

Look at the numbersI know it might be inconceivable to you being from the USA, but Europe is in the lead on supporting Ukraine, I have not included the latest supplemental. Why do you always have to be the biggest and the best when it's not true?

[@michaelnorling5062]

Russia is suffering from really severe problems, not only in the war front but also in their economy! And the question is that how much can people cope with and how big losses in the battle field can be tolerated? Not only by the leadership, also the Russian people will get to know what the real costs in human lives and in military materials has cost the nation already.

[@vasilijevukadinovic6843]

U are to far gone. A quick Google search will show u that there economy is growing faster then every g7 country. I can continue with your other points but I feel like I'm just wasting my time

[@babahanuman83]

And they are out of ammunition since two years and fighting with shovels and steal washing machines for computerchips😂 don't be ridiculous.

[@andrekeefer2034]

For all practical purposes, Ukraine is on its last legs. The writing is on the wall.

[@andrekeefer2034]

How much the battlefield loses Ukraine willing to tolerate before it is time to call it quit ?

[@johnwalsh4857]

@@andrekeefer2034 sorry its Russia on its last legs dont be silly haha

[@albertdittel8898]

The speaker calling Ukraine having to lower it's draft recruitment age "good news" tells you, that people like her really have Ukraine's best interest at heart.

[@caracallaavg]

Look up what happened to the male population in occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts bozo

[@rossbarrie8904]

More telling to me early on when she says... there is a more optimistic plausible story we can tell.... hope to hold on for a year, everything goes bad for russia great for ukraine and the west... and that gives a plausible story to tell...

[@mitchyoung93]

​@@caracallaavgWhat happened? The DNRs Somali battalion was the lead in taking Mariupol.

[@SkyGlitchGalaxy]

Fool.

[@anabona4764]

@@caracallaavg They are fighting for its land and they are alive. 600,000 Ukranian solders are dead. 100,000 left the military units, reported by Ukranian authorities.

[@hamzasyed]

Props to the Chinese for deterring dangerous NATO expansion, helping much of the Global South through investments and increasing de-dollarization efforts, and continuing to undermine American imperialism and hegemony. I for one came away after listening to this episode feeling very cheerful. ☺️

[@michaelnorling5062]

There are about 100 patriot systems in Europe!!! Ukraine has asked for 7 SEVEN systems! Would that be impossible to provide?

[@vasilijevukadinovic6843]

I'm just curious do you know how many patriot interceptors are made a year? Clearly u don't otherwise u would not post that msg.

[@jordizee]

​@@vasilijevukadinovic6843ooooh....how many?

[@kalin3430]

@@jordizee 400 while Ukraine waste it for 2 days lmao

[@vasilijevukadinovic6843]

@@kalin3430 actually 550 with a plan to expand to 650 in a few years. That's supply for all the countries. Now think about how many missles russia has shot so far. I believe the number is 8000. Also remember that for each target u usually shoot 2. Another problem is the price of each one. Now u understand why this will not work. I believe Germany will build a new plant to produce but that's many years in the future. Money does not solve this problem.

[@vasilijevukadinovic6843]

This is also a similar problem for almost all the ammunition we produce. We did not imagine industrial war. Therfore we are not prepared. Guess who was russia

[@bill5868]

Ukraine struggle today is because US & Europe strategy is a failure. We will all learn a very hard lesson years from now if Ukraine falls. Failure is also from lack of sanction enforcement.

[@mariabengtssonviking]

Thanks for your reporting ❤ I think both USA and Europe have to stop telling UAF and Ukrainians how and when to do this, because they know what they are doing and how to fight against Russia and we don't, full stop! We must and need to support Ukraine with all weapons, except nukes, they want, because they are defending us our children and our future. Anything more than suggestions and ideas should not be made from us. Slava Ukraine from Scandinavian Vikings/Sweden

[@Moretowers]

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. /Nursery rhyme

[@dirremoire]

If they ask we should give nukes. After all, they know what they are doing .

[@domino20]

To believe we can resort to conventional warfare to settle differences between major nuclear powers is crazy. It’s all well and good as long as both sides think they’ll win but ultimately the side that’s losing will threaten to use nukes and the side that’s winning won’t want to give in. Wars become absolute or existential as everyone likes to say. You’ve gone on for almost a hour here talking about continuing this fight but without a settlement this will likely lead to brinksmanship where it’s just a coin flip whether we destroy civilization.

[@jakeb3157]

Ukraine isn't a nuclear power, while Ukraine is getting conventional weapons from the west, the west is not going to go to war for Ukraine, probably not even if they got nuked, just like the USSR was not going to go to war with the U.S. over Vietnam and the U.S. wasn't going to go to war with the USSR over Afghanistan under almost any circumstance. I'm not saying proxy wars don't increase the risk a general war, but there is a big difference between a nuclear power supplying weapons to a third party that is fighting a conventional war with another nuclear power,(which is a practice that has been going on pretty much non stop since the end of ww2) and a conventional war between NATO and Russia directly.

[@gregc8567]

putins willing to suicide ruzzia with popular vote? truly a failed state

[@fare-5174]

Except Ukraine is not a major nuclear power, and this conflict is between some third-world countries that are unlikely to involve China or America directly; and if superpowers are not involved, the destruction of civilization is a wild conjecture with flawed assumptions. I wish people would stop bringing up nukes already.

[@ftk2589]

@@fare-5174 USA is no longer a superpower.

[@jordizee]

Crimea is still the key 🔑

[@andrekeefer2034]

Forget about Crimea.

[@jordizee]

@@andrekeefer2034 i just can't.

[@nowhere474]

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN

[@duckcensorship7446]

@@jordizee They used to have a big bridge there, but then it got destroyed! (Sent from ipad 20.7.2024)

[@cornpopsrazor5375]

Rofl....morons still talking about that bridge.....Russia built a railroad further north to circumvent that.....Crimea is never leaving Russian hands again....wake up.

[@kasunanastasiabachatasensu386]

Western propaganda getting funniest now. Washing machines are kicking nato's ass

[@GlenAnderson-lj5bc]

Pukes like you are pathetic.yiu make these half ass comments That prove to the entire world. You don't have a clue of what Your talking about . There is something big being planned . And it's causing Putin to be even More desperate . Making predictable mistakes is his specialty. He and him alone is the biggest reason who Russia will Never succeed in anything .

[@ericwedin4154]

Ukraine armed forces are about to crumble and you consider to peddle this wishful thinking.

[@pierman4858]

Now say this with the voice of Darth Vader please.

[@JaneSoole]

Are you Russian? You offer no explanation for your statement or knowledge/

[@cornpopsrazor5375]

So true.....they are washed.