Doug Fords Dominance | Ontario Election Forecast

I walk through my Ontario election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties.
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[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

Here are the poll links for those interested! Feel free to pass a long to anyone you know who would be interested as well. English language respondents: forms.gle/mry9XEDjVXy4z3Ae8 French language respondents: forms.gle/ArsDDd6ktdWDMdGF7

[@CalCalCal6996]

I'm English but responded to the French one parce-que je parle français aussi!

[@waynesworldofsci-tech]

Done.

[@sjappiyah4071]

As a Torontonian, this was pretty accurate. The one thing I believe you should’ve learned included in explaining Ford’s appeal in 2018 was definitely his family’s name as well. His father was a long standing and loved Ontario politician, and his brother Rob Ford chartered a whole new generation of urban conservatives. He truly captured the immigrant communities in the cities as he was socially conservative, opposed shoving lgbtq policies in the city. He was also notoriously good at being a penalty pincher, saved the city 1 billion dollars which many in low income neighborhoods appreciated. He also was an advocate for better social housing by removing bureaucracy and visiting every tchc complainant. Doug Ford essentially rode this momentum in the 2018 election but failed to live up to these ideals. Also PS , the way you pronounced Malton & Etobicoke was so funny lol. Most of us locals would say “Malt” like the drink and “ton” like the weight . “Malt-ton” “Etobicoke” is like “e” as in email , “to” as in “toe” “bi” as in “bee” and “coke” as in “co-operative “ “E-toe-bee-co”

[@natesportyboy4939]

If someone better than Ford becomes PC leader, they could easily get up to 100 seats.

[@sjappiyah4071]

Accurate , wish we had a real conservative but Doug Ford will do for now.

[@natesportyboy4939]

@@sjappiyah4071 Maybe Oosterhoff?

[@7MGTEsupra89]

Ford won 1st time round because people were sick of the Ontario Liberal party. It didnt matter who was the leader on the PC's at the time they would have won.

[@benstapley6077]

In my riding, we had a large number of identified federal Liberal supports who declared they would vote with the Ford PCs and we had quite a few (over 6000) identified CPC supporters who either stayed home or voted for another party. This information was gathered during door knocking during the campaign.

[@dannyboy_m3821]

They ACCLAIMED her!

[@jameslucas6892]

Great video, I enjoy your thorough and well though out analysis you make more sense than most mainstream media outlets in your analysis.

[@gregorytobin5754]

His name is pronounced "Dahl-ton Mick-Ghin-Tee"

[@WiseOwl_1408]

Cromby is the progressive sarah Palin.

[@disruptive7640]

"Don't be boring, it's bad for you" lmao

[@JSK010]

"That one video where he swallows a bee" Oke have to check it.. one sec. *opens second tab* classic Ford 🤣

[@Inf]

Hahah I laughed at when my man Bagel tried but mispronounced my Rinky Dink obscure greater Toronto area riding. As well as the other mispronounced politicians Cool video bagel homie :^)

[@sausageslaps]

the minority of whiners can complain about doug all they want and the paid media included but doug does a decent job, he doesnt saddle us with endless taxes and other revenue raising scams like the liberals did and he does things for us that actually mean something to the middle class, he has my vote.

[@andrewolf9865]

Etobicoke is pronounced "Eh-Toe-Beh-Coke"

[@royieg2543]

I almost turned off the video once I heard that. But I would have missed a great informational video.

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

Oh my pronunciation skills are truly horrible. I really need to go to pronunciation boot camp.

[@thetradefloor]

I live in etobicoke literally 2 blocks from Doug, the k is silent "Eh-Toe-Beh-Co"

[@andrewolf9865]

@@thetradefloor I found it varies person to person, some pronounce the k some don't. Afaik the "official" pronunciation has the k sound

[@DeusExMachina50]

Timestamps would be helpful.

[@jimadreher]

Food is a sellout

[@rc-wj5ur]

I agree with you about the wrong explanation given by the media about Ontario voting for the other side than what is Federal … never made sense to me. Doug Ford is a Blue Liberal. When I came to Canada 25 years ago the Liberals were the party of common sense. That’s been out the window since it was taken over by these “people-kind”. We definitely need a real Conservative Party in Ontario … there really has never been one since I have been here … or at least I haven’t noticed till now. What the heck is a Progressive Conservative anyway sounds like an oxymoron. I voted for Doug Ford to get rid of Kathleen Wynn … but I have not been impressed by his record so far … but I expect that the NDP would have Bankrupted our Province if given a chance. The one thing I must give him credit for is that I believe that he actually loves Ontario and believe he will swim in any murky pond if he thinks it will help the province … this is just not something I can say for the others. I voted the new blue party in the last election as my protest vote as I wasn’t happy with how the pandemic was handled in our province. So the only reason I would support him again is because we now see with the example of BC that there is a difference between left and far left and far left is not somewhere we want our province to go.

[@OwenWithAHammer]

The next provincial election is in 2 years, right?

[@anilstrathclyde]

He’s hinting at calling a snap election next year bc if Trudeau loses next fall, Ontario will flip Lib

[@user72974]

Unless one is called early, yes. 2026.

[@hughjass990]

Roman Baber should join the True Blue party and run against Ford. That would great to see them on the debate stage.

[@wesfudge]

He's a federal conservative candidate now. Dumb idea.

[@rjh1945]

You forgot territory

[@lordfogg9728]

Free Northern Ontario

[@colinjohnston5734]

I joke doug is actually just Kathy in a fat suit. Honestly the liberals attack him as a conservatives as if he isn’t a progressive. I think Doug’s a good man but an outta touch wealthy Torontonian who’s best isn’t good enough. But he is the nicest option sadly.

[@user72974]

I wouldn't call Ford a progressive. Spendy, yes (just look at the $1B price tag for bringing beer to grocery stores a bit quicker), but look at what the money is spent on and the lack of support for progressive social causes.

[@Millipede666]

62% are against Dofo yet he is gonna win 100% of the power. I love Ontario.

[@1982kinger]

Who else can we vote for... the liberals and ndp are both communist retards

[@cd3949]

Toronto is not 62%.

[@Millipede666]

@@cd3949 Add up the % vote for NDP/Lib/Grn across the province. Comes to 62% against Dofo. Pretty obvious.

[@user72974]

@@cd3949 There are people outside of Toronto who don't like Ford and the PCs too.

[@RibPullRick]

Ford tried to make changes but the unions pushed back. I remember going to school during Ford's attempt to change the class sizes and sex ed curriculum but, the teacher union had none of it. Same with the retirement home. They have too much control and don't want to listen to parents, the government, or students. They're ideologically driven and unwilling to change without having huge protests. Ontario needs a serious union buster, Ontarian teachers are well-paid and have great benefits, yet they can't handle the slightest changes.

[@cd3949]

About half of the people on the "Sunshine List" in my area work for the school board.

[@richardkeller4892]

As long as he doesn’t try to privatize healthcare. It doesn’t work in USA and it won’t work here.

[@wesfudge]

For someone that has been "researching" Ontario voting for a long time, you're way off base. Ontarians, by nature are centrists. It is very seldom that they have elected anything resembling the hard right or the hard left. There are exceptions, but few. Ontarians historically have voted with an eye to Quebec and balancing off western Canada interests. The PC party governed the province at one time for over 40 consecutive years by being good managers and implementing slow, incremental change. This is all Ontarians want. They want their transit to function, their roads paved, their hospitals staffed, their garbage picked up and good paying jobs. Bill Davis was the master of this, and much of what Ford has done is modelled after the Davis government. Stop over analyzing it.

[@cd3949]

Forgotten about Bob Rae already?

[@wesfudge]

@@cd3949 what did I JUST SAY??? I said there are exceptions, but very few. Mike Harris in 1995 and Bob Rae in 1990. READ MY COMMENT BEFORE YOU OPEN YOUR FAT MOUTH!!!

[@detroitdieselseries5071]

Ford should be voted out in 2026. He is destroying Ontario with his greed and he is a Charlatan for the billionaire class

[@madbeastyeti3850]