Trudeau Loses St. Paul's, Should the Liberals Replace Him? | Canadian Election Forecast

I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be.
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[@nickbrasche1189]

Congratulations on the upcoming wedding and enjoy your time off content creation!

[@madbeastyeti3850]

Enjoy!

[@flylogan2954]

That's very nice of you

[@madbeastyeti3850]

Would be funny if the Bloc got major opposition again

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

I was playing around with some potential CPC ceilings and if they hit 49% nationally BQ opposition starts becoming very possible.

[@sandihallgren7509]

As much as I detest Liberal/NDP I don’t think it would be good for Canada if the opposition only has the interest of one province in mind.

[@madbeastyeti3850]

@@sandihallgren7509 Happened before, not the end of the world really

[@ThePyrosirys]

You mean it would be epic and based?

[@ThePyrosirys]

​@@sandihallgren7509well if all of Canada votes for the same party except for a single province... well yes the opposition will represent the only province that voted for them, that's how a representative democracy works. Breaking news you don't get to vote for both the majority and the opposition.

[@casualgameplayyt]

I'm a first-time voter in Ottawa. I will definitely be going conservative!

[@DevintotheColp]

The only reason I know who Zach Churchill is, is because I live in Yarmouth and drive by his office everyday lol. If it was not for that, I would not know him at all.

[@alowry2002]

Thank you. Happy Canada Day. All the best for the wedding.

[@gavinsmith9871]

If only that big Manatoba seat would flip blue and make all of western Canada the same color.

[@larryroyovitz7829]

Northern Manitoba has been believing the NDP's lies since day one and show no sign of changing.

[@Ironguy-gm6vf]

That would be aestecaly pleasing

[@ionfreak83]

Won't happen especially with their NDP provincial majority government and the province NDP premier Wab Kinew high popularity.

[@J.R._]

@@ionfreak83 You're right. Just goes to show, all you have to do to be popular is say next to nothing, endorse all NDP socialist polices and smile. I'd almost have more respect for him if he actually tried to do something tangible to help the lives of the native population. Unfortunately, he's little more than an NDP shill who follows leftist woke polices.

[@batteriebrettchen6761]

The provincial NDP has a surge of popularity right now and maybe that spills over to the federal level. They also won a by-election in the former of seat of premier Stefanson.

[@lizlevesque5547]

congratulations on your wedding.

[@AtillatheFun]

I don’t understand folks that want to replace him with someone else. Name me one other Liberal who looks presentable and has name recognition. They look like bureaucrats. Keep him and work on his branding.

[@reznen1175]

thanks for all the great data, and have a winderful marriage!

[@DVX_BELLORVM]

A video on Canada Day? That's dedication! Quick pronunciation note: Beauséjour in N.B. is pronounced roughly like "Bow-sea-jor" and Hochelaga in Montreal is "Ho-che-la-ga" with a hard 'ch' as in 'church.'

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

Technically the video was recorded on Friday. KZbin as a platform just incentivizes keeping all uploads on the same day.

[@laser_turret]

It's "Bow-zay-juur" It's "Haw-sheh-lah-gah" I live in montreal you got both those wrong

[@bradoleary88]

Happy Canada day

[@ericthegreat7805]

I said this on Eric Grenier's channel in French, I'll repeat it here-- Due to the massive centralization in power of the PMO since the Harper era and which accelerated under Justin Trudeau, the cabinet and caucus have effectively become a rubber stamp for the sitting Prime Minister. The "best people" of Justin Trudeau's inner circle who have been proposed are Freeland, Fraser, Miller, and Anand, and these are all viscerally hated as much as Trudeau is. Freeland is viewed as even more unlikeable than the Prime Minister, Miller is disliked due to his role in the current immigration policy, Fraser with his housing policy, Anand with her monetary policy, will all be painted as just Trudeau Lite and part of the broader Trudeau agenda. The only cabinet minister who spoke out against him, was Wilson-Rayboud, and we all know what happened to her. Trudeau has effectively shot himself in the foot by tying all potentially viable alternatives to his legacy, and risks tanking the entire party with him. The only other alternative to the names mentioned above is Carney, however while he would be a competent technocrat, it is a very bad idea, in an era of populism, to place Carney against Poillevre. Carney will be very vulnerable to Poillevre's tactics of painting the liberals as out of touch elites, and his central banker credentials almost certainly will push away the left wing of the Liberals as well as the NDP base, which may have gone behind any of Trudeau's inner circle due to familiarity. In short I do not believe the Liberals have any viable option, again due to Trudeau's own errors in judgement, and this is why I do not believe the Liberals will or can replace Trudeau before the election.

[@Itsgone99]

Thank you for acknowledging Harper's contribution to our administrative mess. My only hope is that the Liberal party fails so spectacularly all the other parties follow suit in hubris, entitlement and disconnection to the point all parties by default show that democracy has only allowed free reign for one side to kick the other around and for the other side to undermine everything the other side accomplishes for itself or others. I am ready for sovereign citizenship and the uncoupling of our collective destinies, are you?

[@ronniebby3148]

Great analysis as always, appreciate your time to provide some input to us fellow Canadians. Is it age, or is this analysis and discussion more engaging than contemporary drama?

[@ronniebby3148]

Also, enjoy the deserved time off and a happy marriage!

[@bradpederson4510]

Grats on the wedding!

[@robrjmonk]

Great analysis. I think a potential future video when younare done with your important life changes would be to see the history of shifts in polling closer to elections. My experience in the real world tells me there are a lot of people who only pay attention when they must. The last NS provincial election is a good example.

[@sds3454]

Genuinely thought Ryan Mcbeth was talking 😂

[@vhateverlie]

Can Confirm, from NS. Never heard of this Zach Churchill. My knowledge of provincial politics does start with my local riding representatives and that's about it.

[@Buckshot99]

Same for me

[@GamerRoy2021]

I love NS from CT USA

[@dmitriigrishin2947]

Happy marriage bud!

[@loicklaroche6816]

Can’t wait till Québec become it’s own country

[@snowl1837]

Moi aussi!

[@jeremytrepanier2202]

moi aussi ! qui est ottawa pour dicter ?

[@dannyboy_m3821]

Alternate title: Can't wait till Quebec stops being the biggest have-not province

[@Dwarfman133]

Rip the east coast being connected to the rest of the country

[@jeremytrepanier2202]

@@Dwarfman133 that give em a brake from the globalist psychos of ottawa

[@treyd3433]

Congrats😊

[@r-o_o]

congrats on the wedding!

[@mrparrehesian1742]

Saw Marie Le Pens Party in France devastate Macron in the 1st round of Elections. Uk has seen a dramatic loss for the current Conservative ruling party, so much so that only ridings with more than 20k leads are going to be financed. Reform is pushing hard for a small and relatively new party gaining tremendous support. Liberals have to be watching the swiftness of change in Europe.

[@JSK010]

I think the UK is really an outlyier because of Brexit and the subsequent failing economy. In general here in (continental) Europe ppl of all ages and education levels are becoming more socially (!) conservative.

[@jonathanloeppky]

@@JSK010 Im not sure that the UK economy is doing bad because of Brexit, it is still performing about the same relative to Germany as it was before Brexit and the pandemic.

[@Peglegkickboxer]

The UK has no right wing or centrist parties. Straight up just socialist Labor vs Global Fascist Tories. There's like no hope or future for that country.

[@seant8292]

Something important to remember about the St Paul seat, is that conservatives tend not to participate in polls (particularly rural ones), which would make sense why the swing of the seat was so surprising

[@georgehiotis]

No, let him stay until the next Federal election and watch the Grits implode.

[@pedesan]

68 seats is way too much

[@The.Amnesia.Channel]

"Fringe Minority" #Sarcasm

[@DoorDash-nf7cd]

did you make this map or did you find it somewhere? if you found it else where could you please provide the link? i like looking at this stuff.

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

The projection is bespoke but the raw map is an edited one off of the wikipedia template.

[@austinference4265]

Google Statistics Canada Census Maps. They have a variety of maps for different regions and different boundaries (municipal, federal ridings, etc.). They also have boundary files of the regions for making/colouring your own maps in software

[@nonasmith2405]

Yup

[@donp11]

Thanks, great news

[@whyme943]

Biggest thing for me is what the NDP’s seat total looks like.

[@JSK010]

I like the globals trends hypothesis but with a twist. Its not so much against incumbents, but against "woke", globalism/internationalism, uncontrolled immigration.

[@GabrurTrufonov]

Last year it definitely was against incumbents... this year however... yeah if we exclude the UK were in all honesty the Conservatives are more left wing than labor it has been right wing backlash after right wing backlash

[@disruptive7640]

What do you think would happen if Biden was replaced?

[@adam62273]

This is a canadain electoral prediction. Nothing to do with the US

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

Biden has different calculus because a lot of people don't want to vote for him because of his dementia. That said it depends on who actually replaces him.

[@disruptive7640]

@@TheGreatCanadianBagel Fair

[@EdAb]

@@adam62273 You're missing the point. It's a great question.

[@wesfudge]

@@EdAb Except its a false choice dumbass. There are hundreds of people they could replace Biden with. You want him to predict ALL the outcomes????

[@Ched_D_Bitcoiner]

congrats on weddin!

[@alexp2608]

Have fun getting married stranger : - )

[@jeremytrepanier2202]

le québec a raison depuis le début

[@kaizokudude]

It's Beauséjour. You always miss the SÉ.

[@kevs2481]

Congratulations on your upcoming wedding

[@nathanalbright]

Have a great honeymoon 🎉

[@mashmash7877]

You should run as a member of parliament your very brilliant

[@weslabrash8593]

Bo-say-zhoor

[@ryanelliott71698]

I may not know everything about the Harper years, but when I look back, those were the good days of my childhood. Dollar value was high, when a crisis happened the country wasn’t severely damaged, and an overall better quality of life. Yeah the liberals legalized marajuana and the minimum wage, but what the hell did they do for me? Cause as a young person all I saw was inflation, before I got a different job didn’t see much in my pay check, can’t move out due to high rent on my salary, owning a house is just as bad, just getting a job now is damn near impossible even for entry level, our military is a joke and our reputation. When I look around at the other parties all I see are jokes (ndp and ppc) and selfish bastards (Quebec and Libs). So when Pierre says, “hey let’s build nuclear power plants,” I go for that.

[@Jake-zk3eb]

Vote green

[@Buckshot99]

Do you think Pollievre as a “liberal conservative” is similiar to “ progressive conservative”?

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

Not at all. Progressive conservatism isn't a thing, at least not in a useful sense of either root term. The liberal in liberal conservative means they support small government and free markets. The conservative means they support conservative social values. Conservatism as an ideology only actually makes prescriptive claims about social values so economics can be easily changed inside of it. Progressive usually means someone supports progressive social values which is antithetical to conservative social values. So anyone unironically using "progressive conservative" as an ideology is just confused the term doesn't actually mean anything. Historically most of the time "progressive conservative" was just used by right-liberals to obfuscate they were not actually conservative. Of course that only lasted so long.

[@Buckshot99]

@@TheGreatCanadianBagel That is the NS and Ontario provincial parties as well as a couple others I believe. At one point was the federal conservatives. Do you think that the current situation in the UK is a result of the conservative party not being conservative enough? Perhaps in a similar sense to the end of the Mulroney progressive conservatives?

[@frenchmime1972]

In the 1930s there was a party called the progressive party which had a lot of seats that were right wing at the time, they merged with the conservative party that is where the name comes from, doesn't mean being progressive in today's terms

[@Buckshot99]

@@frenchmime1972 But both federal and several provinces have a progressive conservative party

[@frenchmime1972]

@@Buckshot99 the name comes from the same merger a lot of the provincial parties didn't change their back to conservative

[@vince9647]

Its not just their dictator leader , that party has to go .

[@tommyjames3105]

“Dictator” 😂😂😂 Stay triggered

[@user-ti1rp4of4m]

Can't get over Manitoba, NDP is Liberal, shameful

[@Ironguy-gm6vf]

The ndp are polling at like 2 seats in manitoba?

[@TektoniusPrime]

No way that the green party would lose their most popular seat in Saanich gulf islands😂

[@ancientdunlop]

At this point can we just change the Canada flag to blue? It would be more fitting. Liberal red makes me sick. That's right, Justin Trudeau has ruined the colour red for me. Changing it would be like washing the stain of the shame of electing that narcissistic tyrant.

[@tommyjames3105]

Damn, it’s a shame that four out of five of our best PMs (Laurier, Mackenzie King, Pearson, Trudeau Sr. and Mulroney) were Liberals then. It’s almost like most conservative leaders don’t actually do anything for the people of Canada once elected

[@zombieat]

@@tommyjames3105 doing nothing is better than doing irreversible harm like Trudeau Sr. did.

[@ancientdunlop]

@@tommyjames3105 Yes, you included Trudeau Sr. on your list, your opinion is invalid. By every single metric of the available data you are empirically wrong. The last time Canada was in this kind of economic shape was under Trudeau Sr. and he at least had the good grace to resign after his run of destruction. Let's hope his 'son' has at least that much sense, though it seems unlikely.

[@GabrurTrufonov]

​@@tommyjames3105 Trudeau sr. Was good lol...tell that to Canadians who voted him out by 20% in 1984 because the economy was in the most fucked position that it would be until his son came around. Everyone else was a leader of a completely different liberal party than the joke we have today. And also almost like the fast majority of our mps have been liberals.

[@GabrurTrufonov]

@@tommyjames3105 also how you saying Mulroney was one of the best mps

[@chrismayberry8798]

That map is ridiculous …. Blue and dumb… Pierre favourite voter

[@kindcanadian5825]

Don't vote liberal. Don't vote NDP.