Why Global Markets Are Falling

[@Greggwalden518]

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[@Jongellings8113]

I heard her strategies are really good, How do I reach your Coach/mentor…

[@Greggwalden518]

She's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

[@Greggwalden518]

LeasieAiken9

[@KimberlyAnnSprenkle]

LeasieAiken is among the best traders on the internet and I'll keep saying it every time.

[@SecureContainProtectOFFICIAL]

Thank you. I have searched, her up her Telegrams, I think I am satisfied with her experience

[@anthonyferris8912]

US economy is around 26% of global GDP, while its stock market is around 60% of global equity valuations. Can't imagine why Buffett unloaded so much stock.

[@johnlane8053]

US Presidential candidates should be required to pass a basic economics quiz before they are eligible to run for president

[@methonyHolmes-e8p]

And voters need to be above 100 iq

[@treyquattro]

any natural born US citizen over the age of 35 can run for president, even an idiot.

[@jamesgollan8602]

and should not be convicted felons and adjudicators sex offenders

[@ohk749]

I know, Biden was not a good look for the west.

[@klawlor3659]

This is all smoke and mirrors. All planned, all staged. Huge transfer of assets to the wealthy followed by a suspension of high tariffs and a stock market rally. Come back here in 6 months.

[@ryan_dylan6650]

The economy is in a downturn, plagued by uncertainty and instability. A worsening housing crisis, increasing foreclosures, and global market volatility have deepened financial distress. The lingering effects of the pandemic continue to disrupt recovery, while rising inflation, stagnant growth, and trade disruptions strain businesses and households alike. Without immediate intervention, the situation threatens to spiral further, jeopardizing long-term economic stability.

[@AndrewRedford]

In retirement, safeguarding your wealth against inflation is essential. Consider options like TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), commodities, or foreign currencies to hedge against a weakening dollar. Diversifying your portfolio with global real estate, international bonds, or high-quality foreign stocks can provide additional protection and growth opportunities in an inflationary environment.

[@creissantrocheleau946]

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[@curitira2980]

This sounds great! Do you have any professionals or advisors you could recommend? I could really use some guidance on proper portfolio allocation.

[@creissantrocheleau946]

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Jennafer Beaver Turner for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She's quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@curitira2980]

I just copied and pasted Jennafer’s whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.

[@HalibutKrik]

The hint that the UK may be "spared" should be seen as a threat.

[@hopr]

“Being spared” means you did Trumps bidding and he will ignore you for a while and next time the price will be higher. Not really something to proud of

[@tonycollyweston6182]

​@@hoprwe'll have to eat that chlorinated chicken, it's time to go vegan.

[@jamaicantillidie6626]

The UK will bend the knee to Overlord Trump, Farage will make sure.

[@ohk749]

@@tonycollyweston6182 Chlorinated water and EU chlorinated salad is fine. Please explain your logic?

[@xtc2v]

@@tonycollyweston6182 All our washed veg and salad leaves have been in chlorinated water. Best you stop eating altogether

[@stephfoxwell4620]

They are not "crashing". They are making modest falls.

[@I-Like_Milk]

Barely even a dip, the S&P is down 0.7% at the closing bell and is up 16% in the last 6 months when valuations were still very high. Until there’s a drawdown of at least 25-30%, there’s not really a buying opportunity; that’s just unwinding ridiculously high earnings growth expectations that have been priced in.

[@jennyd255]

So in summary, it seems Trump may not entirely understand detailed economic theory as related to the exact significance of balance of trade deficits, and thus, in starting this inadvisable trade war, may even have accidentally shot himself in the foot! Oh what a surprise... Who ever could have predicted that? 😀

[@methonyHolmes-e8p]

Its project 2025

[@-C0ns1an1ine-]

@@methonyHolmes-e8p Nope, if you read project 2025, they are against tariffs, so trump just dumped everyone.

[@TheBooban]

And who does? All the “experts” that put us here the past 2 decades? F them. I want change.

[@cunninr2]

Economists certainly don't. They haven't got anything right. List of things they got wrong : trickle down economics, globalization, QE, the EU project, Japan, Brexit. I'm sure there's more.

[@vldgrs]

You do realise this includes negative changes for you too. ​@@TheBooban

[@punklesam94]

So this is what Mad Max has warned us all along….

[@sidkings]

@1:57, thats nearly a decade out of date (2017)

[@richardsimms251]

Good discussion

[@katesisco]

The recession expected and planned for decades ago is now here. A L Petrova's predicted collapse is here. The delay was due to the local business heads to allow long term employees to complete their retirement rquirements and protect their assets by paying off their mortgage. This supported local home ownership and is behnd the amazing retention of homes by owners in local communities, completely bafling the expected economic collapse by banks absorbing worker's lifetime asset, their home. This heroic action by local business leaders to delay the eliminatioin of long term employees jobs is a true American expression

[@Fiercesoulking]

What I would add is not only those the importers use the money and buy bonds in the USA (the base for the US Dollar) also in a lot of those companies US companies or investors have a stage in them . China on the other hand stopped buying US bonds and even sold a lot of them and bought with the money the last 10 years . This is the reason why gold is so expensive. Together with high interest rate and the stop of the QE program this is the reason for the high interest rates the US needs to pay atm because there are tons of low yield bonds around on the other side.

[@tobiwan001]

In the last deacde Europe has basically financed the US deficit and buying an ever greater share of bonds. But now they will be de-risking. The EU already talks about closer ties with China as the US is now the biggest threat to the free world.

[@mccannger]

2:48 as regards US bonds and US unpredictability possibly being an issue, President Trump has said to cancel the debt! Can't get more unpredictable than that! If they do that or anything to affect the yield curve and such likes, we really will be in uncharted waters! I'm very glad I have gold in my portfolio and UK gilts!

[@marcocarlson1693]

One point. You kind of brushed off the U.S. Debt situation with 'America has wealth' and 'buyers of it's bonds.' Uhh, not exactly. The U.S. is currently paying $1.126 TRILLION per Year on 'only' servicing it's massive debt. Let me put that amount into context for you. You know America's vaunted Tech Industry? Well, the Entire Industry's Total Profits are $306 Billion as of the end of 2023. Which means that just "servicing" America's Govt. Debt, not paying down, but only servicing, is nearly 4X All Profits earned from All Tech co.'s in the U.S., which is the United States' biggest industry by far. This 'servicing amount' increases daily with no plan in sight to stop it from further increasing drastically. If you don't think Debt is a MAJOR problem and concern. Then what, if anything, is??

[@mrECisME]

If I owe you 10k it's my problem. If I owe you 10 billion it's your problem.

[@robertstevens1554]

The debt ahouldnt be an issue??

[@tompenn6703]

How does a tariff impact household taxes?

[@tompenn6703]

I don't the mechanics of this

[@jontalbot1]

It is a tax on consumers and since they live in households they will experience higher prices ie inflation

[@flesz_]

Just sold Nvidia with 320% profit A few days ago that was over 400% Now bought Google stock, hope it goes up after the earnings tomorrow

[@tarlkoroban3733]

What are the rules of this 'rules based order'. Anyone got a link?

[@cunninr2]

The rules are: 1. Don't do anything for the average guy. 2. Ensure that working people's lives don't improve past basic sustenance. 3. Concentrate the worlds resources into the lowest percentage of individuals you can.

[@MrFStCtUK]

Also known as Putin rules! ​@@cunninr2

[@cobbler40]

History shows tariffs don’t work

[@nowisgodinyourlovelylife717]

They always do a favour

[@jamaicantillidie6626]

It is time for the Commonwealth, for CARICOM, for Africa and for all the Global South to unite and create free trade agreements, free trade zones and closer economic cooperation to redirect trade away from the tyrants who would divide us, suppress us and do us harm. It is time to put aside the crab in a barrel relationship and uplift each other. The Commonwealth must become something more than just this dog and pony show. It must become more economically relevant or step aside. In its current state it is useless and worthless. The US and no one country should be the main Drivers of Global economy. We must diversify away from that.

[@PeloquinDavid]

Thanks for this. I was hoping someone would explain the importance of looking at both current and capital account balances in this dialogue of the deaf (and especially dumb) that is the Trump tariff war "debate". That said, I suspect your explanation was a bit technical for the average KZbin viewer and some may not fully capture the finer distinctions between: (1) the balance of trade in GOODS (and particular classes of goods, notably manufacturing) - which seems to be the obsession of the US president; (2) the balance of trade in goods AND SERVICES (including spending by tourists from outside a country); (3) other components of the "current account", including e.g. interest payments and dividend flows stemming from foreign debt holdings and equity/portfolio investments abroad. As a Canadian 🇨🇦, I am particularly offended by the almost certainly bad faith claim that Canada is being "subsidized" by virtue of its running: (a) a comparatively small surplus in the trade in goods with the US - due primarily to energy exports given that we actually run a DEFICIT in manufactured goods; (b) an even smaller surplus in overall trade with the US (including both goods and services); (c) an actual (small) current account DEFICIT with the US due to the substantial repatriation of investment revenues from Canada to the US (e.g. dividends from Canadian subsidiaries of US companies, interest payments on private and public debt, etc.). The flip side of that small CURRENT account deficit is, of course, an equally small CAPITAL account surplus (as the video explained) - notably ongoing investment flows into Canada by US-based investors that add to the magnitude of investment returns to the US in the future. As I'm sure you'll agree, the various economic transactions that go into each and every one of these balances are overwhelmingly on the basis of market-based exchanges - NOT "SUBSIDIES"! There ARE competent people working for the US government who understand these things. It's unfortunate that none of that knowledge has been able to penetrate into the head of its President.

[@MijinLaw]

"Unfair business practices, like subsidies". Which country doesn't subsidize key industries like farming?

[@pauldickson7217]

So the stock market booms while those working in those industries are underpaid and just surviving.

[@dinoyoung]

AI will do for the human brain, what the combustion engine did for horses. AI is the way forward, and thats a straight race between the US and China, and pple cant invest/support China AI, so backing the US ot is. Trade deficit and tariffs or not, europe is nowhere on AI, and as such risks turning itself into a museum.

[@Tuppoo94]

US car manufacturers will be hit hard by these tariffs. They've been able to play with Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards by manufacturing some of their cars in Canada and Mexico. Thus, these cars have been classified as imports, which leaves more wiggle room emissions-wise for their US produced models.

[@AlexMoscow9mmpr]

Reminds me of Brexit. Wasn't the trade deficit with the EU something that Brexiters complained about? If it's a net positive for the UK, were the Brexiters naive or willfully dishonest?

[@stuartwray6175]

if Brexit?

[@pauldickson7217]

@@AlexMoscow9mmpr primarily dishonest and self serving.

[@cobbler40]

The US believes in free trade as long as they are benefiting.

[@TheBooban]

Isn’t that the point of free trade or did you miss something?

[@cunninr2]

I know right. Who wants trade that makes you poorer!

[@earnthis1]

USA doesn't believe in free trade at all. The republicans were always lying about believing in that, clearly. Look at what they do. lolol The hilarious thing is that people actually believe in the dumb dumb concept of free trade. It's a fairy tale for chilren.

[@mrECisME]

You mean like any superpower

[@elinope4745]

No it doesn't. Free trade doesn't have market restrictions. Real free trade is called the black market. It's illegal in USA.

[@amzpro5734]

How much does the 'US doing well' have to do with 'US tech doing well'? Could China's approach to releasing cheaper, faster, open-source AI begin to challenge a number of assumptions.

[@elinope4745]

If they want to defy my expectations they need to invent something rather than copying someone else's invention. I expect them to be good copycat thieves.

[@puppets.and.muppets]

investors are pouring out of equity markets and into commodities.

[@nickjacobs2846]

US Corporate profits are up only for the magnificent seven, they have been carrying the US economy for many years since the GFC. The interesting part is looking at the proportion of zombie companies, those that exist only by way of earning enough to repay the interests on the loans they have. It is worth looking at how much of the profits have come from speculative investments into land, stocks and even crypto currency. Another pertinent question is, who exactly is "the market", this abstraction is worth clarifying. You are referring to capitalists and their investments. Sections of world capital are spooked. Is Meta spooked, is Microsoft spooked, they have lined up behind Trump? Trump is drawing the lines between American capital and foreign capital, while making decisions that appeal to his base, the middle class (owners of small amounts of capital, not those with middle incomes). The irony is that China's model of capitalist production, using state owned enterpreises in key industries, appears to be more flexible, adaptable and efficient (ironiy alert) than the USA's private owned companies.

[@DaveRobinsonYT]

Excellent analysis - but probably not the end of the world. Rather, see this like an angry parent who says: “go to your room and I never want to see you again! “ Trump could be seen as using extreme measures to get attention to a chronic problem. The US has supervised a world order of generally free trade. However, even our friends have taken advantage of this. Japan has all kinds of tariffs against American goods while we imported Japanese cars. Similarly, Germany maintained a tariff on imported American jeeps while we let in Mercedes and Volkswagen. The disparities have gone on for too long. Trump is waking everyone up. But do not take this as the end of the world. Those who have been taking advantage of America’s good nature will have to change their behavior, and when that happens, the trend will definitely be backtowards global free trade.

[@mrECisME]

Where are these global markets crashing??? Every market is up on the month.

[@simonfesting8933]

Where is this crash?

[@RabJ208]

Alot of fear mongering on the Internet. Fear mongering has been 'a thing' from since the beginning of human time.

[@R53Hole]

Trump & Musk = Fart & Smell

[@earnthis1]

reverse the order

[@Chrisi313]

It must take a lot of effort to provide all this analysis without mentioning immigration. The mention of deportations is the only hint that this massive flow of people is going on.

[@rteammobile]

Cars are more expensive than ever before. This idea about free trade making everything cheaper is nonsense; it only helps big companies. If people around the world think Americans will be scared of tariffs, I'm sorry, but we won't.

[@thewolfofswingthat2035]

appeared out of no where?? deepseek has been releasing models for a while. people just didnt care before

[@neilrmartin1984]

The Dow is currently green as I watch this .. I agree with your analysis but I think it's as much to do with market manipulation. Trump (and Musk) won't want to see their stocks plummeting

[@cunninr2]

Erm. What crash ?

[@CD-pm9kc]

Why do some countries fail? Climate and genetics.

[@earnthis1]

Don't be a clown like Trumpy lol

[@CD-pm9kc]

@@earnthis1 Read a book.

[@maxbig9021]

BREXIT MEANS BREXIT ! We need to impose tariffs on all goods from USA of 100% and above, and also we need to cancel visas so that the US do not come to the UK.

[@anthonyferris8912]

@maxbig9021 Have you considered therapy?

[@comdo831]

US trade and budget deficits are not sustainable in the long run. Trump, intentionally or by chance, is making a preemptive move. It's either that, or devaluation of the USD and reduction of the deficits with the help of inflation.

[@JasonTheOneAndOnly]

Tbf it wasn't anywhere near as bad as I thought it was going to be on the market today. I've still got some green.

[@jontalbot1]

It’s because there is an expectation that tariffs will increase inflation so that interest rates remain high. Pretty short sighted IMO

[@AgendaDey]

ALL YOU ARE SAYING IS GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM PROBLEM IF YOU ANALYSE IT CAREFULLY BUT IF US STARTS PRODUCING FOR THE DEFICIT THERE WOULDN'T BE ANY LOSSES.

[@jmcm8546]

Even if trump now chickens out of imposing tariffs on Canada, much damage and goodwill has already been done, with regards American products.

[@FINNSTIGAT0R]

Stock markets don't mean shit

[@gerhard7323]

I'm still struggling to work out Trump's rationale here, but I'm not so arrogant as to assume there isn't one. People dismiss him all too often too easily, but what he's doing here, I agree, is baffling....

[@earnthis1]

He's creating chaos to funnel more money to his buddies.

[@klawlor3659]

It's all smoke and mirrors, designed to transfer money to the wealthy. I can predict exactly what will happen here, and in this order: 1. Trumps backers suggest he imposes damaging tariffs on close neighbours. 2. Neighbours retaliate. They've all agreed this ages ago behind the scenes, but they've been rehearsing their acting skills and getting their pals in the media prepared. 3. Stock market goes down on Monday, followed by unsettled week/s. Lots of panic selling, shorting and doom. Wealthy buy shares, funds and assets at much lower cost. 4. All countries involved come to an "agreement" (already prearranged months before). 5. Stock market hits new highs. Trump and pals hailed "heroes". Wealthy backers buy more yachts.

[@robertgamson2820]

If a country is importing excess and taking on debt to pay for it is a good thing then bankruptcy must be excellent because the country will have maxed out on the good thing. Rubbish!

[@comments2840]

Economist joining on China bashing? What a distraction!

[@cobbler40]

The spineless Starmer has kissed the ring.

[@rinnin]

@cobbler40 Which "ring" would that be then? 😏

[@anthonyferris8912]

@cobbler40 UK US trade is broadly in balance. What's your point?

[@paullewin8615]

The eu lover strikes again.

[@jontalbot1]

You feeling right?

[@ajx9747]

REFORM UK 2029 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧 BREXIT MEANS BREXIT ....

[@tonycollyweston6182]

Trump does not serve as someone to emulate 9:13

[@earnthis1]

Millions of young high skilled workers are fleeing England! lolol

[@christinemurray1444]

Brexit will save us from a currency collapse.

[@jontalbot1]

And a meteor strike, malignant robots, the plague and the curse of Tutankhamen

[@meljohnson5926]

Suffering from TDS are you? ROFLMAO😂

[@R53Hole]

Total desolved solids?

[@meljohnson5926]

😂 hardly

[@RabJ208]

The darn shite

[@adamumugwangi1830]

it needs crashing as its all built on leverage funny-money. lets jope the collapse will lead to more realistic price ranges and stop the manipulation

[@jontalbot1]

Did you manage to put that sentence together all by yourself?