Elon Musk's Bold Claim - 1 Million Optimus Robots by 2030

Elon Musk's Bold Claim - 1 Million Optimus Robots by 2030 - Here's Why It's Possible!

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BestInTESLA

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 144

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

Even if it takes a decade longer than Elon hopes, it is still mind-boggling.

@raybod1775 2 ай бұрын

2030 seems possible, if not million, then tens of thousands.

@markuss3735 2 ай бұрын

And let's not forget what SpaceX has achieved. Nobody thought that would be possible. And years later, still nobody else is close to achieving what SpaceX has achieved.

@davidbeppler3032 2 ай бұрын

Not bad for a "car" company.

@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 ай бұрын

You means selling less Cars this year then Last year is good for Tesla?

@alvaroluffy1 2 ай бұрын

@@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl Tesla is now a robotics company. Four wheeled robots and humanoid robots, and more in the future. Humanoid robots are a market many times bigger than cars, so yeah, its good

@davidbeppler3032 2 ай бұрын

@@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl Yep. Why sell cars when you can just rent them for more profits?

@SparkySho 2 ай бұрын

Notta car company ha

@michaelluger2127 2 ай бұрын

Expect exponential speed of growth.

@raybod1775 2 ай бұрын

Eventually

@Berretotube 2 ай бұрын

Lars, I'm LOOOOOOOOVING LOOOOOOOOOOVING LOOOOOOOOOOVING all the amazing content you're delivering. Quantity and Quality. Love your positive, optimistic, friendly, quirky Scando vibes. THANK YOU 🙏

@garyrooksby 2 ай бұрын

You said it, Lars. "Buy and hold"

@ScottRawdin 2 ай бұрын

Lars, you are correct, Optimus will revolutionize the planet and the Tesla stockholders today who are holding their positions will receive a mega-return on investment. Thank you for reminding us to buy and hold ;o)

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

The world in general and the stock market in particular can always find creative ways to disappoint you. That being said, I have hope for a solid upside.

@raybod1775 2 ай бұрын

Personally, I believe Tesla is the second best long term growth stock.

@thomasruwart1722 2 ай бұрын

I haven't read all the comments yet but it is worth noting a couple things. First, Elon Musk has said that the most important thing about Tesla is the Machine that Builds the Machine. Secondly, if you consider the fact that Tesla can easily build robots that are tasked with building more robots. Consider the following: say it takes one week for a single human to assemble a single robot: Week 1: Build one robot. Week 2: Train Robot 1 to build Robot 2. Week 3: Download Robot Building to Robot 2 and Robots 1 & 2 build Robots 3 & 4. Week 4: Robots 1-4 build Robots 5-8. From here on this is the number of robots that can be built assuming assembled robots build subsequent robots: Week 5: 8 built, 16 total Week 6: 16 built, 32 total Week 7: 32 built, 64 total Week 8: 64 built, 128 total Week 9: 128 built, 256 total Week 10: 256 built, 512 total Week 11: 512 built, 1,024 total Week 12: 1,024 built, 2,048 total Week 13: 2,048 built, 4096 total Week 14: 4,096 built, 8,192 total Week 15: 8,192 built, 16,384 total Week 16: 16,384 built, 32,768 total Week 17: 32,768 built, 65,536 total Week 18: 65,536 built, 131,072 total Week 19: 131,072 built, 262,144 total Week 20: 262,144 built, 524,288 total Week 21: 524,288 built, 1,048,576 (1 Million) total Week 22: 1 Million built, 2 Million total Week 23: 2 Million built, 4 Million total Week 24: 4 Million built, 8 Million total Week 25: 8 Million built, 16 Million total Week 26: 16 Million built, 32 Million total. In 6 months production could [ideally] go from 1 Robot to 32 Million Robots. If you keep doubling the production using this process, you end up with over 1 Billion Robots after 30 weeks. This is just a thought experiment but it demonstrates the idea of building the machine that builds the machine, or, in this case, the machine that builds copies of itself. Exponential growth is a powerful thing. Bottom line is that 1 Billion robots in certainly not out of the question.

@InformedKiwi 2 ай бұрын

Production is not like that. First the components have to be individually made. Then assembly is not a “One Task” it consists of many operations to put the components together into sub assemblies, like the fingers, joints, actuators into a hand, then these are tested. The subassemblies are further assembled into the robot, like the hand to the arm then to the body.

@thomasruwart1722 2 ай бұрын

@@InformedKiwi - Agreed. It was merely a gedanken experiment, the point being that, in principle, given all the necessary parts for final assembly, robots are "the machine that builds the machines". It was also intended to demonstrate exponential growth - albeit a rather over simplified example. Ultimately though, one could imagine robots taking over all the prior steps you mentioned and essentially becoming self-replicating. I would like to mention that gedanken or thought experiments such as this one generally require copious amounts of alcohol to put into better perspective. Do have yourself a great weekend!

@raybod1775 2 ай бұрын

Once the parts are massed produced, robots building robots will happen quickly maybe every six weeks doubling.

@stevenvanheyningen6403 2 ай бұрын

Thanks for the Good News !!!!

@patmcdaniel2016 2 ай бұрын

The way Tesla ramps up and uses first principals in production, I have no problem believing this claim.

@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 ай бұрын

Tesla ramps Up?Selling less Cars then Last year isnt ramping Up!

@royh6526 2 ай бұрын

@@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl There was a major downturn in the economy., plus a strong backlash against BEVs. Even I, a Tesla fan, bought a PHEV to replace my BEV. My personal reason was that I rent, and depend on public chargers. Too few and increasingly more often occupied. I don't understand EV haters, but they seem to be gaining popularity.

@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 ай бұрын

@@royh6526Nobody hates EVs just Tesla!

@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 ай бұрын

@@royh6526Downturn?Globaly this year 20% more Evs will be sold but Teslas growh will be Zero!So its not a Ev problem,Its a Tesla Problem!

@skipondowntheroad5833 2 ай бұрын

Robots make everything easier for us. We talked about this in the human section of the bus - robots don’t pose any danger to us at all

@raybod1775 2 ай бұрын

Depends on the robots. Military robots Ukraine is producing are extremely scary, eventually they’ll be set and forget.

@stevenvasselljr.9278 2 ай бұрын

I won't deny Elon achieving his goals, but I always add a few years onto his predictions.

@Teslafan9519 2 ай бұрын

True but who knows if he has learned from his past predictions and now he's actually right or even too bearish (I doubt it but never know)

@kahvac 2 ай бұрын

Lots of regulation and taxes coming for these bots....

@henryvalera3480 2 ай бұрын

@@kahvacTesla is already in china, they can just start there and let Europe and the US stay behind with their regulations and bureaucracy

@budgetaudiophilelife-long5461 2 ай бұрын

THANKS 🤗 LARS 🤯💚💚💚

@jaco1521 2 ай бұрын

Amazing channel and content. Thank you! Exiting future ahead for all Teslanians.🎉

@rowanbroekman3929 2 ай бұрын

It's time for Tesla to buy something like Walmart, where their robots can be really really useful.

@charlespichan9619 2 ай бұрын

I would want one just to have it!!! Living in the time of Buck Rogers!!!!

@goranjohansson4722 2 ай бұрын

Perfect than Tesla can pay a divident of 10 cent already 2030, fantastic!

@李振軍 2 ай бұрын

I think competition from China will push Tesla robots productions more than expected.

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

Any particular reason why? Or any Chinese robot company to keep an eye on?

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

CHYNA is really bad at AI & Software. they can copy the OPTIMUS robot , but cant make it as Cheaply as TESLA. and CHYNA cant give it a BRAIN .

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

@@geirmyrvagnes8718 - JUST Tesla . Chyna , not worth anything. party trick.

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

@@markplott4820 It would be rash to ignore all of China. There are plenty of blatantly bad party tricks, but the country has at least a million brilliant engineers, so some nuggets of adequacy can be hidden in there.

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

@@geirmyrvagnes8718 - CHYNA can only copy , what can be done w/ MATURE tech. CHYNA invented Gunpowder , what have they Invented , LATELY ? did CHYNA invent Democracy for its people ? NOPE , that was ANTHENS . CHYNA , sole the iphone and copied it. CHYNA stole the ipad , too.

@InformedKiwi 2 ай бұрын

Every function of a robot needs software. To unload off a production line, to vacuum the floor, every task. On top of that Tesla needs a factory. , 2 years to build after breaking ground, production line produced and set up, then a long ramp up time to achieve production volume . That’s after the robot has been throughly tested for the operation the production robots are going to do. All done in 6 years?

@ronibee 2 ай бұрын

I want to know how strong it is. Can it open a stuck lid on a jar of marmalade when I can't?

@danielstapler4315 2 ай бұрын

One million Optimus bots by 2030 will go well along with the 20 million cars .

@waynerussell6401 2 ай бұрын

Robotaxi will replace half those existing cars and change cities ar la Seba.

@InformedKiwi 2 ай бұрын

It looks like the 20Million cars per year by 2030 has been forgotten? If the 20M is not a forgotten dream then massive growth is needs to be happening RIGT NOW. To start with Tesla should have many Giga Factories under construction RIGHT NOW to achieve 20 Million cars in 2030. Time is needed to build the factories, start production and ramp up. On top of that there is going to be needed MANY new models. Why is the “20 Million Vehicles by 2030” not been talked about? Is this a forgotten dream replaced by the new dream of ONE Million Robots by 2030?

@fabiancardenas7629 2 ай бұрын

I just want to help Lars by noting that I've heard you over several videos that you've been saying "licening" instead of "licensing" I'm not the grammar police, but just a long time subscriber that want the best for you. 👍🏻

@jjamespacbell 2 ай бұрын

Tesla can make Optimus in quantity and high volume for less than $15,000 the challenge will be having the robot doing general tasks with verbal instructions. Cars only have 2 axis of motion (accelerate, direction) one Optimus hand alone will have 22 axis of motion plus many sensors that add parameters. Look around the kitchen and see how many screw tops you have lying around, although people can put a screw lid on a bottle easily it is a massively complex project to give to a robot. I hope Optimus succeeds but it is moon landing level of effort to get it really useful. FYI Tesla shareholder, big fan of Elon the engineer, CEO of his engineering companies.

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

The "impossible" things take time, and this is yet another impossible one, like landing and reflying all parts of orbital rockets for fun, profits and all mankind.

@TR-xp1eb 2 ай бұрын

1977--Ken Olsen, the founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corporation, said, "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."

@elvinthalund5193 2 ай бұрын

With the rate of FSD progress there is no doubt in my mind that the AGI will be ready by 2030, so this is all about of the Optimus HW is in a scaling ready state by 2030, which would also seem likely.

@Aamar-g6k 2 ай бұрын

Autopilot began in 2014, and as of 2018, V2 Autopilot/FSD is still ongoing. At this rate, your robot will be completed in 2050. A mere shell is useless without quality software.

@elvinthalund5193 2 ай бұрын

@@Aamar-g6k for many Optimus use cases current FSD and Grok capabilities are plenty, so still confident on that.

@Aamar-g6k 2 ай бұрын

@@elvinthalund5193 I am just asking do you know how many Fatality's happened because of Autopilot/FSD. I like the Progress but i am not liking the Risk Tesla is making for it.

@elvinthalund5193 2 ай бұрын

@@Aamar-g6k yes non as it’s L2 and it saves many accidents as data shows. Do you have FSD?

@Aamar-g6k 2 ай бұрын

@@elvinthalund5193 Yes of course it helps to decrease accidents but that is the fault of the drivers. People are lazy and dont want to learn how to drive correctly or take extra training for driving or how a car works.In some Countrys to get a Driver license is just a joke. I tested FSD nothing for me, i like the auto emergency break or lane assist for long straight streets. I have over 750k miles and only 1 accident with my motorbike and that happend in my first year of driving :)

@InformedKiwi 2 ай бұрын

Tesla is so good at Hype. Tesla are great innovators and manufacturers but the hype is always far from reality.

@Lawtoncro 2 ай бұрын

If Tesla sells 100.000.000 robots, they can sell monthly software bills for $20/m they will bring in $240/yr or $240,000,000 in profits yearly, recurring every year. Elon says there will be 2 robots per human. Robot sales could be $2.5Trillion 2023 Tesla sales was $95B , so he predicts sales will be 25 time larger than now. That does not include Tesla Cars or FSD Full Self Driving. They predict the stock will be $2500/ share around 2023, is that possible?

@raybod1775 2 ай бұрын

You mean 2030, yes it’s possible. Amazon and Nvidia had huge growth within a decade.

@kahvac 2 ай бұрын

Regulation and lots of red tape will slow things down at the worst possible time.

@LarryRichelli 2 ай бұрын

Come on, we all know that when Elon gives a date for production it is aways a long time after that.

@ChuckHolland-i4b Ай бұрын

Robots building robots 24 hours a day.....? 1.000,000 no problem.

@InformedKiwi 2 ай бұрын

What about 20Million vehicles by 2030? Is the one Million Robots going to be achieved at the same time ?

@Emily-cq9ph 29 күн бұрын

Soo I can just see it already on the news or online tesla bot optimus has been kidnapped 😂😂

@okklidokkli 2 ай бұрын

Norwegian company 1X plan to build 1 million humanoids already in 2028, two years earlier.

@henryvalera3480 2 ай бұрын

You should put all your money into that company stock then

@okklidokkli 2 ай бұрын

@@henryvalera3480 The company is not listed.

@Add_Account485 3 күн бұрын

Unless it can do the dishes / scrub the toilet /run my errands and cook breakfast lunch & tea for me I'm not interested !

@AdamMM-hq3gv 2 ай бұрын

I thought they already had them working in their own factories. I would assume the near future production lines could make em faster than the cars, so 1 million by 2030 doesnt seem that bold to me.

@snookmeister55 2 ай бұрын

Many robots are in Tesla factories, probably thousands, but I heard of only two humanoid robots testing in a factory.

@sat7755 2 ай бұрын

I trust far more Elon than an internet parvenu expert opinion . Considering his track record of many "impossible" miracles already performed, in the end a super intelligent robot will be another "piece of cake" for the genius. It is impossible to predict the accomplishment of a new technology, and Elon has often made some optimistic prediction, But he has always overdelivered with a bang. AI can be over 10 times more intelligent than a human beings and Tesla Bot will be AI endowed.

@nguyep4 2 ай бұрын

1 million is 999,000 more than we have now. And without his humanoid robot unvealed 3 three years ago, there would be near 0 by 2030.

@donfields1234 2 ай бұрын

not to mention robots making robots soon... the numbers will make analysts heads pop like teenagers zits.

@snookmeister55 2 ай бұрын

Robo both on legs and wheels will happen when AI is solved, not before.@@nguyep4

@alvaroluffy1 2 ай бұрын

1 million optimus robots in 2030 is not optimistic at all, its literally the opposite, its very pessimistic, even with Elon-time

@jimmccall8030 2 ай бұрын

I would expect 5-10 + million Optimus annually by 2030 as well as tens of millions of humanoids coming out of China. Not sure why it would only be 1 million

@SparkySho 2 ай бұрын

One million ah YEARAH

@SparkySho 2 ай бұрын

Haha I gotta dumb toaster

@VaddeRajesh-si5nc Ай бұрын

Poultry and milk diri farming work robots sir

@peterschlange1832 2 ай бұрын

Some people really do fail up. That brownlee cat has no imagination. Honestly, he gives me mr beast vibes.

@stevenbarrett7648 2 ай бұрын

No application ? Mow my lawn, drive my car pick up stuff, help me get from A to B as an older person, do the shopping, the list is endless and that's just around the home.

@yvanpajevic9680 2 ай бұрын

You forgot the two biggest: maid and chef! Combine that with a car that drives itself and you've got pure freedom... even if you're old/crippled. Still need a good brain so we'll see what Neuralink and stem cell therapy can do for those.

@SparkySho 2 ай бұрын

Security guard that won’t go to sleep halfway through the shift

@keithnance4209 2 ай бұрын

$20 /month is pennies…probably more like $100 or more! Unless you’re paying for smaller software utility packages.

@peterschlange1832 2 ай бұрын

I'd gladly pay 200 dollars a month for something that takes care of my house and family.

@paulstubbs7678 2 ай бұрын

1:30 doing an interview on what looks like a knackered couch - not good.

@paulstubbs7678 2 ай бұрын

There is one reason for them to push this through fast, is China - who are working on this also

@vec306 2 ай бұрын

Not possible, but 1/2 a million by 2030 is barely possible.

@johnhetherington8830 2 ай бұрын

Trim your intro

@donfields1234 2 ай бұрын

I guess this guy never saw the jetsons???

@saltvatn 2 ай бұрын

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻

@WolfX1120 2 ай бұрын

Oh i know It's Possible and its going to make the world lazier.. I don't see this as a good thing... The only people gonna be able to afford this are the super rich... I can easily see all the economy going to the top one percent leaving all of us pretty much in the dust... This is an apocalypse just on the horizon for all of us that depend on lower skilled jobs for our income.

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

UBI + Tesla bot. people will work to BETTER themselves. FREE Healthcare, FREE homes, FREE public transport.

@WolfX1120 2 ай бұрын

@@markplott4820 Not in the USA... There are going to be a lot of people out of work... And there will be no FREE Healthcare, FREE homes or FREE public transport.

@WolfX1120 2 ай бұрын

@@markplott4820 FREE Healthcare, FREE homes, FREE public transport... No i don't think so... That is not how things work for us in the USA... We can't get a good Healthcare up and running, affordable homes is a joke and public transport is disgusting a good half of the time... I literally see people throw garbage on the ground right next to empty trash cans... And it's bad... But it was a job that i did to clean it up... I don't see food being free... And jobs are going to be gone... So how are we going to pay for it??? and more???

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

@@WolfX1120 - a little Socialism , goes a long way. Democrats may have to Accept in 2025.

@ThomasTomiczek 2 ай бұрын

I think the number fis comically low. I see 1 million new robots for Tesla in 2030 - PER DAY. There will be competition, it will be a race to flood the market.

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

A million per day from one company is comically high though, if we are going by comedy factor.

@ThomasTomiczek 2 ай бұрын

@@geirmyrvagnes8718 Nope. Divide it by 6 factories NOW and maybe 10 production lines each it will be, minimum - Optimus robots are WAY smaller. it is high - but not that much if you think about it. Assume 50% of every factory is allocated to Optimus production. Even if it takes 2035 - that is what it will be at one point.

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

@@ThomasTomiczek It seems you slipped 5 years at the first resistance. 😆 I guess we will see. It is physically possible to make that many, but there are probably more limitations than that.

@ThomasTomiczek 2 ай бұрын

@@geirmyrvagnes8718 Nope. I just gladly agree that my optimistic projections are that - but that the exact timeline is one thing: Absolutely irrelevant. I expect the biggest waiting lists in human history - and everyone running towards fulfilling the demand. Whether it happens on T or T+3, T+5 is irrelevant. Interpret into that what you want. One can not fix stupid.

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

@@ThomasTomiczek Yes. I also think this will be a big product. The exciting (and comedic) part of your statement was that you were over two orders of magnitude more optimistic about 2030 than mister time optimist Elon himself, which most reasonable people would take as a best-case scenario. 2035? I have no intuitive idea, and I wouldn't trust the premises of my calculations.

@DCGreenZone 2 ай бұрын

Stock pumping is not my thing, seeing people make bad financial decisions based on deceptive messaging will never be my thing.

@buffbatman2 2 ай бұрын

1 million by 2026 would be impressive. But 2030? Seems weak

@DavisStraubOz 2 ай бұрын

This is a huge change in people's lives and for it to happen people need to feel the this is coming from a trusted source. I would suggest that Elon is not a trusted source.

@casperhansen826 2 ай бұрын

I doubt a trusted source exists.

@gregbailey45 2 ай бұрын

Trust your eyes when you see it.

@royh6526 2 ай бұрын

I think Elon has been bitten too often for his optimistic projections. Now he is trying to be more conservative in his estimates. At the same time, he has observed that other companies have been dissecting Optimus videos, and copying their advancements. This has led to Tesla only displaying an Optimus behind glass at the world's largest robotics conference in China. Elon has stated that he expects to have 1000 Optimus robots working in Tesla factories next year. I think he is sandbagging and this will happen by the end of this year. Tesla would be smart to keep Optimus for internal use and for Tesla suppliers long enough to gain a significant advantage over competitors. BYD sells a Model 3 sized BEV for only $16k in China. I understand it is a very nice car, but of course doesn't have Tesla's FSD option. Optimus (and unboxed assembly) will allow Tesla to compete price wise with BYD. This supposes that Tesla has more than 10k robots working in Tesla factories by the end of 2025.

@happyswing 2 ай бұрын

Ну збс, ещё скай нета не хватало. Херня, которая может убивать это кошмар.

@WrathChild-NZ 2 ай бұрын

Yep and 1 million robotaxis by 2020....

@wadyhaddaji1861 2 ай бұрын

You are being so conservative :-) Prople pay 100 usd a month for a phone. 20 dollars for a bot per month is funny. Maybe $20 a day since a bot would replace a $100 a day factory worker.

@googadisbeotches9360 2 ай бұрын

Last

@SparkySho 2 ай бұрын

Last last

@tonycincera3353 2 ай бұрын

Soon after Tesla produces and sells 2 million cars in a year. Right ! But heck this isn’t a fact but a fan site.

@casperhansen826 2 ай бұрын

Next year, then

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

produces +2million before Jan 1 2025.

@SparkySho 2 ай бұрын

1.8 last year very likely

@tillwohlfarth6920 2 ай бұрын

Second

@jojonesjojo8919 2 ай бұрын

But he promised FSD and the Roadster ages ago, and he still hasn't delivered.

@musk-eteer9898 2 ай бұрын

i've been commuting daily with FSD (supervised) with auto parking as well for at least couple months now. it's amazing

@casperhansen826 2 ай бұрын

The Roadster is the dessert, it really doesn't make any money. FSD had to be redesigned a couple of times because they reached a local maximum with current design, something you probably never have experienced

@geirmyrvagnes8718 2 ай бұрын

He promised Model Y and it came out before he promised. LIES! 😅

@markplott4820 2 ай бұрын

2025 Roadster is under Development. TESLA is incorporating 48v, Stear by Wire, 1GB Ethernet and REAR steering.

@tonycincera3353 2 ай бұрын

Next Musk will be producing planes that flap their wings and ships with flippers. They already have robots in the production floor, they just don’t resemble humans nor should they. Only a troubled mind would want a humanoid looking robot. Just hope it isn’t your job (income, life) that’s being replaced.

@Lawtoncro 2 ай бұрын

Wouldn’t an auto manufacturer want a robot for industry? A robot can work in dangerous jobs, or welding, right?