Energy, Food, and War in Eastern Europe

Volatility remains the dominant theme for financial markets, as prices for energy and food commodities continue to rise along with hostilities in Eastern Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine has made central bankers’ fight against inflation that much more complex. And its broader ramifications multiply seemingly by the hour. Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist and the author of the forthcoming book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization,” joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss what is rapidly devolving into the biggest global crisis since World War II. As Zeihan notes, “Russia is often derided as a gas station masquerading as a country.” But this is an oversimplification. In fact, Russia - and its neighbors, including Ukraine - plays a critical role in global agricultural markets. Zeihan discusses fractured trade relationships, energy, agriculture, and what is an increasingly fraught future for the entire world. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: rvtv.io/3tBW24G
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Energy, Food, and War in Eastern Europe
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[@discotex2236]

Fantastic to see Peter Zeihan on Real Vision. I've learned so much about how the world works from his presentations and books. He is shockingly accurate.

[@rd9102]

Been watching Peter Zeihan for years, love his stuff. Would like to see him on more often.

[@tarunnagpal5517]

Iioooiii

[@perro626]

I've just found him a week ago... Was he always right about things?

[@rd9102]

@@perro626 No one is always right but you can go back into older videos of the things he talks about whether he is at company presentations or whatnot and it will give you an idea of the big picture and he outlines the world in terms largely of demographics and the drivers that come from that. I haven't read his books but when i get time i want to read a couple of them. Also if you go back and watch his older content you can see how his thoughts evolve over time on what is happening in the world.

[@andrewblake2254]

He is on Geopop channel often. He is ultra confident but that does not make him right. However much of what he speaks of is factual so very useful.

[@Btn1136]

@@perro626 no- he misses for sure, but he’ll always get you to think differently about things.

[@sbd7589]

Kudos to RV for bringing in Peter. Definitely a perspective that was lacking till now.

[@Rony-ls3du]

appreciate peter coming on too explain just how complicated the situation is. its nice to hear from someone well informed on the situation.

[@TrendyStone]

@yo yo Gosh, I've been following Peter since 2014 and his predictions have been amazingly accurate...right down to Russia's moves this week.

[@TrendyStone]

@yo yo The only one? Ha ha! What about Georgia snd Crimea? Did kindergartners see the Russian expansion step by step? Did you not read any of his books? How about the impact of the shell revolution? Or his predictions for Turkey….and Brexit…and France….and Mexico? You are like the kid that only watched the movie trailer and then declared it a flop.

[@drwaltchack]

Great job Maggie. You did a fantastic job on this interview.

[@samm1830]

She's horrible at this job. Put Ash Bennington back in charge of all interviewws

[@SportFundMedved]

She is nothing but pure hate. Misinformed and narrow minded. Misery of journalism.

[@Felixtrack]

Yea right ! Stuttering trough her questions

[@pd7009]

Zeihan is definitely one of the most valuable sources in the next year or so

[@christineparma-monetizeyou5787]

Fantastic interview. Would love future interviews with Peter!

[@lukedbatt]

Maggie almost passed out when he mentioned the US crude export ban 😂

[@headoverheels88]

lol and when he mentioned all the supermajors leaving Russia... lol.

[@lieshtmeiser5542]

The loss of russian oil is a big problem for the EU. But this is where we see the failure of the EU to correctly evaluate US disengagement. There is huge oil and gas available in other parts of the world, Australia, Canada, etc. What it needed was capital available for investment, as these big multi billion dollar projects are expensive and a lot of the gas usually gets locked up in offtake agreements. Australian gas goes into asia. If the EU wanted it they needed to fund new fields and get in at the ground floor. By becoming more and more dependent on Russia they have naively walked into a major security vulnerability.

[@bubbajones7486]

Excellent video! Maggie, excellent work, great questions and Interview. I love hearing what Peter has to say about the world, especially in these dark/frightening times.

[@thomasthornton5125]

Maggie one of your best interviews. And Peter I'm looking forward to reading your book.

[@baddolphin1423]

Zeihan really entering mainstream. Tbh he's been predicting the current situation for over a decade. He made some wrong prediction, true, but he was spot on on most projections.

[@thomasnewcomb2079]

Yeah, I'm just a retired Soldier and had his recent talk at the Warfighter Conference pop up in my feed (Modernizing Nations for a Changing Order). I really appreciate that he can verbalize the info without going all geek. It is very interesting information.

[@Stupid9808]

What was he wrong about?

[@cindyfinlayson4197]

What was he right about?

[@pyrioncelendil]

His predictions have generally been wrong in the scope of "when" things will happen, but not necessarily wrong in "what" things will happen and "why." So a couple years late on predicting Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bout a decade or so late on China's eventual collapse, the only thing he's suggested that hasn't yet materialized in any form is whether Alberta will secede from Canada and apply to join the US.

[@Stupid9808]

@@pyrioncelendil I still expect cacastorm in the Middle East. tanker wars, and largest migration in mankind to be worthy of the attention in my portfolio. Alberta, who cares, and Canada is getting kinda weird lately...

[@dale9357]

Wow! Great episode. Super insightful. More of this guy please.

[@timthetiny7538]

Peter Zeihan. Check his books out. He's been talking about the coming wars for 10 years. He's also got talks all over youtube

[@TrendyStone]

His books are fantastic.

[@barrettjacocks1506]

Wow, absolutely spectacular conversation. Thank you.

[@tapiapb]

I need to watch this 5 more times

[@bobwoodward3237]

Peter Zeihan - BEST IN THE BUSINESS !!

[@littledaemon001]

One of Peter's best interviews. No one commenting on his shirt colors? Haha

[@2Quirky4u]

I noticed

[@jeffskent]

One of his trademarks is striking color and design choices, which I like.

[@Stupid9808]

He needs a haircut and a shave to prove his sincerity...just keep voting for Joe...blawhh hurl...

[@costagino772]

She is a GREAT interviewer. Knows what to ask next and MORE important, when precisely to do that so it can support the flow and not grind with off topic interruptions.

[@pinheadluke3136]

This feels like the most important video I've watched in 2022.

[@legacyrydeshare3478]

It’s definitely an eye opener. Makes you want to revaluate current living conditions at home in preparation of the inevitable.

[@pinheadluke3136]

@@legacyrydeshare3478 I'm stockpiling pasta for starters.

[@fedup1606]

The world we have all known is now over.

[@jdlc903]

Ikr

[@ulischmedt1636]

What an interview: So hard, so mind blowing, epic

[@jonEmontana]

Glad you had Peter on. Thx

[@billbritton843]

Peter is awesome!

[@Tenebrousable]

Analyst like Zaihan is in the problem spotting business. They are true. But problems are solved too. And those solutions he can't ever see beforehand.

[@tomolesnevich]

Lots to digest there, Peter. Thanks as always. And great color combo on the shirts

[@Chris-eq1yh]

Thanks~~~~

[@AnaTG2024]

Amazing interview! Thanks 🙏🏻

[@Chris-eq1yh]

Thanks~~~~

[@paulkiefer5231]

❤️🇺🇦Best interview ever. Information DENSE. Thanks.

[@albertsanchez-alvarez195]

This guy should come with a warning notice. WARNING Peter Z is extremely addictive and could become an unbreakable habbit resulting in endless searches on the internet for more and larger doses. Side effects can be gloomy conversations with friends and family resulting in isolation and ostracization from normal poorly informed Kardashian following members of society. Love this guys stuff

[@giovannipotenza123]

same same

[@boslys140]

Where was this warning 12 months ago 😰

[@kahvac]

WOW.... a very sobering look at what's going on ! Thank You.

[@brianmark3088]

Fantastic interview. Peter Zeihan is so knowledgeable.

[@derekk2708]

Great interviewer. Great Guest.

[@andrewimrie6413]

I like Peter Zephaniah a lot. I would love to see him talk to Jeff Booth. That would be really interesting.

[@pinheadluke3136]

Peter Ziehan is great. He lost his way a bit during covid and he blocked me on Twitter lol. But it's great to hear his insights.

[@twinsen04]

What did he have to say about covid? Maybe you have a link

[@cryblood55]

hahaha i love this review

[@maplenook]

Did he believe the propaganda?

[@pinheadluke3136]

@@maplenook yes although he seems to accept that the vaccines don't work very well now. He was well and truly lost in the pro-vax camp.

[@pinheadluke3136]

@@twinsen04 he has a website, he probably mentioned it in a few newsletters. I think he's got a KZbin channel, and he's obviously on Twitter.

[@janhladik2120]

Excellent! Truly hard thing to swallow now.

[@Andrew-rl4bv]

What an insane interview. I'm not sure how to feel.

[@stardustnow4985]

Great interview by Maggie.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@Aaronwilliam]

Amazing!!

[@mak529]

Great content today

[@pinheadluke3136]

Coming back to this after 5 months. Oil is back to pre-Ukraine invasion prices and there doesn't seem to be the shortage that Peter was predicting. I hope he's wrong about the food shortages too.

[@renovatio1257]

Stay strong Ukraine! 🇺🇦✌️

[@rp011051]

Brilliant analysis, often not appreciated by msm media. Have always listened to him, seeing aside his political.views on america

[@RawandCookedVegan]

Excellent video. Thanks.

[@stevebidock8912]

This guy knows what he's talking about. Not sure that everything plays out the way he lays out, but we are certainly headed in the direction he is pointing. His macro view agrees with many other educated people.

[@David-fp3qg]

Love to Raoul interview him for an hour or so

[@ibrahimcharanek2300]

Peter zeihan is a genius 👏

[@kirk6330]

wow. This was a eye opener 😳..

[@professionalgambler74]

Absolutely amazing

[@mbg9650]

This is scary stuff! I did not figure the geopolitic situation could be that bad.

[@Rnankn]

It’s not that bad, it’s much worse.

[@thesimpleanswer2264]

@@Rnankn its not much worse, its horrendous.

[@vibratoryuniverse308]

@@thesimpleanswer2264 it’s not horrendous, it’s irreparable

[@oliveoil7642]

All by design😈

[@andreasdonauer356]

Best interview I've seen on RV so far.

[@Chris-eq1yh]

Thanks~~~~

[@emmanuelananda6551]

Very much appreciated

[@MsTyrie]

Yes, potash reserves (et al other inputs) can satisfy the ag input demand for this planting season. But are we contemplating an impact on the next planting season? I worry for farmers and myself. Farmers are my proxy for survival.

[@oliveoil7642]

Canada has plenty of potash

[@kennethwillett9633]

Being of age and how to manage the sequence of returns in those early periods is what seems quite scary in the current market. The market is never a loser in a twenty year cycle, but the 2000s decade scenario scares me and could really disrupt my retirement. When you are no longer accumulating but withdrawing its hard to be anything but cautious.

[@baileywalsh7040]

Some investors look to their investments as a source of income while others use it as a means to grow or preserve their wealth.

[@nathanallen7815]

For new investors, getting started can feel overwhelming. Risks loom large, and complicated, unfamiliar financial jargon can be intimidating.

[@loismorton1606]

That’s where online brokers can come in handy:::: Those that offer intuitive platforms and plenty of educational resources can guide you through your early investing days::..

[@waynefletcher6131]

Been trying to get started but i end up loosing out. Do you have a professional broker???

[@loismorton1606]

I TRADE WITH *Kyle William jener * She’s the best

[@asgerjrgensen5195]

Great Content!

[@ACLOUDRIPPER]

Very valuable information here

[@Chris-eq1yh]

Thanks~~~~

[@lennartlopin2276]

Wow what a ride. Agree with a lot. Buckle up. Hope we can address issues before they explode in our faces.

[@mikel9997]

Bring Peter Zeihan back on again!

[@vickie8774]

This really has me worried.

[@loconut52]

Great Interview.

[@cryptohammer6245]

Wow 😯 🤨🤔. Definitely need to digest this.

[@korymelby9847]

Thank you

[@entpguy]

Wow. Outstanding macro analysts.

[@Chris-eq1yh]

Thanks~~~~

[@paulds65]

Nice choice of colors of the outfit Mr. Zeihan!

[@murryno]

Gracias!

[@Awesomequeen280]

Wow thank you!

[@morongovalley940]

If there's one thing people love, is listening about the end of the world. There's literally 5000 year old stories on it.

[@DcapTNT]

Man.. this gonna keep me up at night. But worth it… i think 😅

[@edwinwwilson]

Nice colour choice Peter. Also seeing a talk from 2014 laying out much of this weeks events.

[@Mzbonezz]

What talk?

[@visalusanson]

I was ‘calmly’, albeit significantly concerned with the geopolitical affairs up to the point ‘before’ listening to this interview… After listening to the bucket-full of bullet points (pun intended) presented ~Holy F#%K!..is all that presently comes to mind!

[@steveshirley1456]

This is a terrific, albeit terrifying, interview!

[@RelocalisationNomade]

Wow I want more

[@XSAoRAD]

All I could think about while listening to this is sounds like the 4th turning is happening.

[@chadb1675]

💯

[@JohnSmith-lj4dd]

COVID & this will be the peak. 9/11 & The Patriot Act was the trigger and the past 20 years or so have seen the 4th turning play out.

[@fsmilejerairlellwoll3173]

fantastic insights as usual from pete, only rivalled by the amazingness of that red sweater the host is wearing

[@gzme]

I'm sure this guy knows more about this than I do, but the certainty that he talks with when staying that 'russia is going to now take the whole enchilada' makes me think it's time to take the other side. He talks with a lot of confidence, does anyone know his track record?

[@timthetiny7538]

He Said this was the year they were going to do it by in 2014. The details might be different but thematically hrs been pretty compelling

[@NoNonsenseForex]

Doesn't always nail the 'when' (nobody does) or the 'who', but is lights out on the 'what'.

[@fedup1606]

@@NoNonsenseForex I deleted my comment and want to highlight yours. Spot on.

[@YggOrr]

He is overrated

[@chrisgoeswest9882]

Yeah, there is a bizarre scattershot quality to his discussion. His predictions of inflation, food shortages and localized political instability aren’t that unique, but they seem solid. However, none of that matters if he is right that V Putin is planning to start WWIII. I mean seriously, if Russia invades NATO countries it would be game over all around, so the rest of the discussion becomes superfluous.

[@tommontreal4821]

Here we are, March 2023, and so many of his confident predictions have just not materialized. Nordstream was blown up and flow stopped totally. The war did not end after 6 months. We did not have a global food crisis in the 4th quarter, nor did the world go into recession. But I do enjoy listening to Mr Zeihen - he is a good talker and very entertaining.

[@mangonut]

There was a bumper harvest last year so the food shortage didn’t materialize. He along with almost all geopolitical analysts were wrong about how badly the Russians would perform

[@Del_987]

Legend

[@randykrus9562]

Things are going great! Have a nice day everyone!

[@Hannodb1961]

People in this part of the world tend to slip in the shower and fall into some bullets from time to time. 🤣

[@maplenook]

Everyone following Ice Age Farmer has been expecting famine for quite some time

[@MrJx4000]

Okay,... so should I buy, sell or hold?

[@dingfeldersmurfalot4560]

Wow that was dire!

[@Chris-eq1yh]

Thanks~~~~

[@josephagoglia9482]

Wow awesome guest!

[@bilw1960]

I think Peter sensationalizes things to help his book sales. However he does provide interesting leads which we can fact check ourselves. The provision in the 2015 oil export legislation is interesting. In an emergency, it allows the President to ban or limit US oil exports for up to one year. That would ruffle a few feathers.....

[@johnl.7754]

But like he said the populous would love it

[@GK123]

That's exactly what I thought, he is very sensationalist in the way he talks. But there is definitely an underlying truth and danger to what he said

[@sbd7589]

Sensationalizes no doubt and comes off as alarming.

[@bilw1960]

@@satoriflow agree

[@TrendyStone]

@@sbd7589 And yet...his predictions have been eerily accurate over the last 10 years.

[@prestongalle9158]

subscribed

[@redcoltken]

I get the sense that Peter is not getting any real sleep these past weeks. Its prime time for him that's for sure, I just hope he schedules some Margaritaville time soon

[@vNCAwizard]

About time for Raoul Pal to listen to Zeihan.

[@chriskenney4377]

Let's not forget the lost of cropland from 2021 floods. It is reported that the chinese can't produce more than half of their normal grains.

[@cindyfinlayson4197]

Russian production doesn’t change.

[@chriskenney4377]

@@cindyfinlayson4197 Ukraine will

[@tjunglec]

Ouch 😞

[@zapfanzapfan]

Would be interesting with a follow up now 2 years later with everything they got wrong and how that was avoided. And some things they got right.

[@jonrolfson1686]

'Near retirement break it bracket' - should be looking for that phrase to proliferate.

[@David-fp3qg]

BHP gives you Potash, as well as gold, cooper, and uranium (think nuke plants) and other things, plus great yield

[@richardc.6488]

Please bring Peter back again, I always enjoy hearing his thoughts

[@Hannodb1961]

There are few people who has the gift of being able to consume such a large amount of data from so many sources, make solid rational conclusions from them, and present it in an lively and easy to understand way to lay people

[@professorcrabs926]

I wonder what this interview and responses will be by April 30th.

[@dan7979822]

The war goes on. Zeihan was wrong about a lot of things in details. This process will take a long time till it blows up.

[@amk131313]

The look on her face at 29:39 when Peter says Biden will reinstate the oil export ban says it all.

[@sbd7589]

Maggie at 3:35 exemplifies the typical American thinking. She quite literally struggles to see the conflict from Russia's side because of American exceptionalism ingrained into the minds of most in America. Difficult interview for her but the reality is that other nations and peoples have aspirations and goals and concerns. They also have competing notions and models of how to order societies, economies and the world. The secular, liberal 'West' certainly doesn't have a monopoly on that but they refuse to see it.

[@b.griffin317]

Well put.

[@maplenook]

The west is in major decline

[@cindyfinlayson4197]

@@satoriflow dumb

[@johnl.7754]

I think nuclear weapons eliminates need for the gateway

[@letsgorandom1380]

Someone seems to have some gas issues during this interview and it has nothing to do with gazprom.

[@chrisdennis2571]

Maggie, give us an update on Raoul.

[@LRRPFco52]

I added up the excess Chinese males from ages 0-49 relative to females, 2020 numbers. 45.1 million more males than females in all those brackets. That’s insane.

[@captainalex157]

they should all become buddhist monks lol

[@JOHNTHE8TH1]

I don’t like hyperbolic speculation

[@djdos83]

brilliant but sobering af!, why just half an hour? give this guy a longer time slot