Epidemic, Endemic, and Eradication Simulations

Thanks to Dr Rohin Francis of Medlife Crisis and Dr Rishi Desai of Osmosis for their feedback.
More info on GiveDirectly
- www.givedirectly.org/
- www.givewell.org/charities/gi...
Interactive COVID-19 simulations from Nicky Case and epidemiologist Marcel Salathé:
- ncase.me/covid-19
More on logistic growth
- 3Blue1Brown, also regarding disease spread: • Exponential growth and...
- Primer, regarding carrying capacity: • Simulating Competition...
- Khan Academy, modeling biology with calculus: www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-c...
Ways to support Primer
- Patreon: / primerlearning
- Store: store.dftba.com/collections/p...
For discussion and updates
- Discord: / discord
- Reddit: r/primerlearning
- Twitter: @primerlearning
- Facebook: primerlearning
Streaming myself working on these monstrosities:
- Twitch: / primerjustin
This video is presented under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. More at:
creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Made with Unity
Thanks to Same Van Cise and Sebastian Lague for helping me learn Unity. You can find some of their work here:
- vancisesam.com/
- / cercopithecan
Music by Mathieu Keith. For business inquiries: [e-mail]
Several other inputs into the graphics are from public domain contributions to blendswap.com
Thanks to supporters on Patreon, especially:
José Hamilton
Noah Healy
Vladimir Duchenchuk
Zachariah Richard Fournier
Jordan Scales
Anders Fjeldvær
Erik Broeders
Ghost Goat
Jérôme Graf
Kairui Wang
Luc Cedric R.
Marcial Abrahantes
Thomas Roggina
Bas Velner
Eric Helps
Leonardo Kluppel
Sean Barker
Tamas Gombkoto
Ben Kamens
Ben Komalo
Josh White
Tudor Lincu
Aymeric Duigou--Majumdar
Charly Cardeño
3blue1brown
abledbody
Alex Beardsley
Alex Garber
Alexander Mahone
Alexander Mantzoukas
ALoneCoder
Anselm Eickhoff
Ben McGill
Brian Cloutier
Chad Fertig
Chris
Christy Serbus
Colin Winhall
Daniel Kjellevold Steinsland
Daniel Schramm
DanSoc
Edono Dondolo
Elliot Press
Frank Lin
Garrett F
Jacob Luedecke
Jason Louro
Jason Prado
Jeff
Jorge Arroyo
Julien
Kataklyst
ketura
Kev O.
Kevin Holesh
Krum Valkov
Lee Berman
Lotus
Martin Obretenov
Matthäus Pawelczyk
Max Kaye
Michael Jones
Michael Wang
Mitchell Douglass
Nicky Case
Paul Straw
Philippe Panzini
Ramon Leon
Ravi Jayanti
Rikard Eide
Ryan Mahuron
Sam Van Cise
sunny ho
Talon Howitt
Tengou
ThePotatoGuy
Will Robinson
Wyatt Nelson

[@usernametaken017]

They are evolving at a fast pace. Now they are civilised and have a city. WE NEED TO STOP THEM BEFORE ITS TOO LATE-

[@hamzaimran771]

1000 years from now Blob A: We just got confirmation that another human ruin has been found! Blob B: Yes! finally our third finding, this is gonna be big folks! Blob C: yeah, but you know maybe our ancestors shouldn't have wiped them all out. Blob B: I agree, but they were sorta asking for it.

[@BossuJmek2k18]

Its over, they are conquering the world now. The human era has ended it is time for _blobs_ .

[@verypotato6699]

Blob

[@Peppermynt.]

Later when blobs discover earth: wait.. there is another powerful civilization in the same age as us....

[@TacticalAnt420]

When is the dyson sphere?

[@katt8581]

Imagine how scary it'd be if you heard an epidemic was going around and you suddenly turning red.

[@lukealexander3191]

Imagine how scary it be if you heard another epidemic was going around that gives you a heat a sore throat and a cough when you started coughing and sweating

[@potat0a1m26]

When you just vibin as a blob but you turning into a tomato Shit

[@mcfat1039]

People who played plague inc :

[@kingchicken8232]

the epidemic would be the least of my worries if I turned red

[@ZeteticPhilosopher]

Imagine how scary it’d be if you heard an epidemic was going around and you had a chance to turn up dead. Oh wait...

[@protorandom9097]

This makes me curious how the data would shift if you factored in deaths

[@MilitantPacifista]

deaths fall in the Removed category, most corpses don't significantly spread diseases.

[@arditshqipe1420]

would help actually. in covid theory must say. less ppl to get infected since babies wont get infected

[@Agent-Blaze]

@@MilitantPacifista *Evolves Necrosis*

[@308negrarroyolane]

Thixtee-nyne liekes???

[@kidjames6875]

@@308negrarroyolane **SMACK** Noice

[@natrocks1567]

Can We take a second to appreciate how hard this man must've listened in his maths lessons Edit: Wow this is the most likes I ever had on a comment

[@m_artroom]

I recall learning info like this, I just don’t recall the info

[@foxmulder3833]

your t tfz

[@michelleconnel]

Ye

[@kidjames6875]

@@m_artroom I must be you.

[@emilyau8023]

I learned about R-naught in my high school anatomy class

[@notyou6674]

disease: extremely deadly and turns people red blob: entirely red and obviously infectious other blob: i see absolutely nothing wrong with interacting with this individual

[@argentum1738]

Maybe the blobs can't see color?

[@neoscav]

Lmao

[@PriitKallas]

Blobs don't see red

[@saitenotoshuitsnaini]

unsuspecting susceptibility

[@radosawgoecki6993]

"extremely deadly" Where did you get that idea from? Not a single blob died because of this disease.

[@GlitchedBlox]

Everybody gangsta until one of your homies turn red

[@BisexualPlagueDoctor]

Oh no..... Sus

[@leowood5860]

@@BisexualPlagueDoctor when impostor sus

[@powerguidao6249]

@@leowood5860 *imposter

[@thebacontourist7084]

@@powerguidao6249 both are correct,but impostor is the correct term

[@TheBookwormAlly]

@@thebacontourist7084 both of them are correct, but impostor is the correct term

[@burgerfanman]

Wow, what a fun simulation. This could definitely never happen in real life.

[@nonyanae2]

Haha, hahaha... Ha.

[@kaidenbush4995]

... Wft it's called an extremely infectious respiratory virus known as COVID 19

[@burgerfanman]

@@kaidenbush4995 And this comment is called 'A joke'

[@emilyau8023]

What's happening now with anti-mask/anti-vax is what we call natural selection. They will hopefully die out soon before they can infect those with common sense c:

[@Pikpikcarrotzz]

**laugh track**

[@lintonfor4035]

i thought eradication was gonna be the eradication of us not the disease xD

[@nonyanae2]

Same, lol-

[@excusemewhat8437]

i guess that can technically include human eradication, due to nobody being able to be infected due to not living

[@stupidfuckingrat]

No living for you.

[@AllenBaby7]

For that, you'll need an R0 of very high value. We are pretty lucky that its just covid, if it was something worse with R0 of 50, we would be pissing in our pants lol.

[@uumuu1]

The blobs are getting smarter. They’ve already established economics and entire cities.

[@CT-zi8em]

Last time I was here they were killing each other for food

[@sparktherandomgamer4799]

Lok

[@khorneberzerk6141]

Lol

[@hellocentral5551]

Maybe they didn't establish the cities. Maybe they just show up at night, loot them, and hide in the basements during the day... Just a theory.

[@zen0462]

And they do some medecine

[@LachlanJP81]

'Sorry, you can't donate in this country or region yet.' Looks like I'm literally not in a place to give.

[@henkpipo4233]

haha awsome :p where may that be ?

[@OCinneide]

@@henkpipo4233 Iran

[@laoaidan2400]

Same can’t donate either

[@skyeplays1772]

UAE

[@controllex_]

Bahrain

[@Mavhawk64]

It is really cool coming back to this toward the end of the pandemic because right now we are at 35% vaccination, and our graphs look just like that one!

[@aguywhodoesstuff4686]

At least we aren't turning red lol

[@luisk8141]

@@aguywhodoesstuff4686 it is so sad to be brazilian and not be going toward the end of the pandemic

[@lilrobodoge6749]

Well, guess we'll be welcoming omicron.

[@guybar8128]

You just had to jinx it…

[@michaelepica3564]

@Neil Rusling I hate it, why did this have to be political. Now we have idiots saying that the vaccine is the real thing getting people sick.

[@Lazy_.Lavender]

Honestly, I was really rooting for Blue Blob #24.

[@ethanliang1836]

Now he’s Gray Blob #24

[@catlover5356]

I was actualy rooting for his rival, Bleu Blob #43, i just think that she had realy good writing, and is a very interesting character

[@pinklasagna8328]

I was a fan of blob #79 but since the authors ruined her in season 3 i sstopped watching the show

[@Lazy_.Lavender]

@@pinklasagna8328 Same thing happened for Blue Blob #24 after the 5th....it's been a while since the comment, he fell off. :/

[@iancampbell4875]

Primer: Mathematically breaks down how pandemics work. Everyone: ThE BlObS hAve A cITy NoW!!!

[@Fred_the_1996]

It's true tho

[@amelie3012]

We need to remember this is the SIR model where people are immune after catching the disease, SIS model where you become susceptible again after recovering would work better for Covid-19 as there is no proof that herd immunity occurs

[@rulebritannia8438]

Blobs are cool

[@derorje2035]

@@amelie3012 also, what about the deaths? So the model might be SIRD or SISD.

[@amelie3012]

@@derorje2035 true, we only covered SIR and SIS in my stochastic processes lectures but I thought about deaths after I posted the comment 😅😅

[@KassiaChanKitsune]

i like how he assumes i can understand what he's calculating

[@editorindebt8410]

lol

[@cameronmoore4879]

I sure can

[@sageandseantvuyisreal]

What stops red

[@jackgrufferty5408]

Vibes for sure m8

[@squarohedron0664]

Same

[@williambrito4253]

It would be cool to see a simulation about if the blobs show symptoms and if they’ll quarantine based on if they have symptoms.

[@EpiceggGaming]

Sounds familiar to something that people will get angry about eh? I’m not but just saying

[@kaylabrand7403]

Quarantining lowers R, the infection rate, so I think we did see that simulation!

[@pabloramonprieto6196]

I can't believe it. This video is exactlty my final degree project, which I presented a year ago. On my case, I simulated the infection with a multiagent system with Jason language (AgentSpeak) for a population rounding 30.000 agents. I'm glad to see my results were so similar to yours. I worked with the same disease model SIR but I modified it, including Dead as a state and changing the ecuations, and also simulating the possibility of infection the same way, as agents leaving his house on certain days depending on his features as age, sex, etc. Good job mate. Cheers.

[@JRCody-ds3ec]

At the risk of sounding morbid, I think adding in death would make it more visible as to why reaching herd immunity naturally is not as good as it may sound.

[@enderan647]

Imo, trying to reach Herd Immunity without artificial vaccine is almost like a natural selection.

[@annataymond9529]

And lots of things you’re not immune to just because you got it once

[@andykelley6913]

Whenever I see people saying we should just let people get infected so we'll have herd immunity I'm reminded of the "Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" meme.

[@bodhisiedler5639]

I think in SIR models, the r (instead of "recovered" as this video put it) is really representative of any population "removed" from the equation whether that be from immunity or death.

[@einfachnurich4800]

i think you also need to think about random mutations which also make herd imunity harder to get to

[@pixnixi619]

This is fascinating. Honestly, I don't actually understand a lot of the math terms, but being able to see what's happening on the graphs and having the colour coding it great. Thank you!!

[@ssu7653]

I think that is part of why this is so satisfying to watch, dont understand the math but can still see that it works :)

[@skylar011]

Agree!

[@bigprojects2560]

It really helped me understand why covid seems to be coming in what are referred to as waves

[@erebebugue6122]

Now imagine don't be a english speaker, and undertand my pain

[@serg5290]

Me: *laughs in 14yo nerd*

[@BlueSusAmigosYT]

imagine the [CURRENT WORLD EVENT] was like this and no deceases

[@reginaanderson6733]

no demonetizations for us lol

[@el_mr6439]

It's petty similar in this aspect

[@user-cx5wf8ek1o]

Seeing this 3 years later it is amazing how good this is explaining the fundamentals in a simple and enjoyable way. The fact that blobs may become susceptible to get infected again is so good. So many other yt videos failed on that or just went to short on the explanation, but in this video is clear and simple.

[@mystZER0]

I'm still waiting for the prisoner dilemma video. Huge zero escape fan and the second game of the series deals with that a lot

[@PrimerBlobs]

It's coming!

[@mystZER0]

And I'll be here. Ready to receive it anytime. I don't wanna sound like I'm rushing you. Quality content takes time UwU

[@ringabell80808]

Primer yes!

[@th1v5]

Why so long premiere? The most effective way to do it is like 1 or 2 hours

[@camilaparizzi9938]

I like zero escape too

[@HippoBoiO]

Is it just me or would anyone else want a blob plush, blobs seem like they would be really comfy EDIT: HE'S DONE IT POG

[@typicalchomper917]

I want a blob bean bag

[@wingedfeline5379]

marketable plushies

[@polinori3582]

All fun and game until they eat you to survive the day and multiply

[@eikosimino5579]

"nooo dont turn me into a marketable plush"

[@rasmusbrandtpedersen4381]

@@polinori3582 Only if the the plush is 20% bigger then you. With would be amazing

[@ArcaneEther]

Recently discovered this channel. It would be fun if these models were accessible online somewhere, so viewers could enter their own variables and experiment with outcomes. Even if the animation isn't present and the engine simply outputs the graphs, that alone would be fun.

[@GuuhMendezoff]

what a video, truly amazing how you guys show us another way to see things that happens irl. If there were more variables into the simulation, sure it will be some chaotic thing, love it.

[@sofiel5327]

the blobs have a city now :O cute

[@silversunset]

Yeah they’re becoming more civilized

[@fireblossom8544]

@@silversunset and they turned into red

[@connorscott6479]

...They are becoming too advanced soon they too will be able to run simulations! THE SINGULARITY IS COMING!! In the form of blobs...weird

[@xman9354]

I guess the mango guy made some extra cash

[@ill_steal_your_pbj7363]

Blue York, blobbington DC, Boston (just regular boston bit they live there)

[@VPZealouZ]

Everybody gangsta till your homie turns red.

[@arsava5493]

But you're a green blob and he turns gray

[@ElFoxo122]

@@arsava5493 green? their blue

[@arsava5493]

@@ElFoxo122 green in this video are the ones who are vaccinated. Watch the video until the end

[@sherls918]

When you realize you ask him to eat that McDonald’s fries on the road

[@SpaceMissile]

@@ElFoxo122 also, "they are" = they're. "their" is possessive (like "their color is blue")

[@swumpfrug9392]

This is the only vid that mentions corona without a COVID-19 warning

[@DarlinOfficial]

Ikr-

[@dj.s1gnal]

This man and his simulations were the backbone of my childhood

[@PashaGamingYT]

In World of Warcraft, there was once a disease called the "corrupted blood plague". It spread throughout WoW and after it was all over, the WHO took data of player infections because of how similar it was to real life.

[@manuelfriend4060]

I remember this. Priests tried to quarantine cities, healing players and blocking people from leaving or something? And then some players would sneak through and run around infecting others on purpose. Real accurate to real life. Cool stuff.

[@Frog-ux5qu]

God I really hate people sometimes

[@killerdemonsniped7409]

I don’t think this accounted in chance of death

[@PashaGamingYT]

Mosa Jahad It did. Game Theory did an episode on it, it's very interesting.

[@texas2957]

Pasha GamingYT yep, was about to say tgat

[@anisasadieva7156]

so theres an epidemic thats turning all the doves into hawks, oh dear.

[@Lo23ve4]

Nice the selfish gene

[@docnathan3959]

But what do they change to when they turn gray?

[@pengil3]

@@docnathan3959 or green?

[@hammer8339]

The selfisch gene has already been debunked

[@beezahar9109]

Not doves to hawks, citizens to Karen's XD

[@maartenvanwesten471]

Watching this vid again after one year. Its so good. Still very valid explanations for the current fase of the disease.

[@tonyangel2142]

After watching your video I've finally understood that there's a reason why there are still another waves of covid instead of ceasing after a while, thanks!

[@d34d10ck]

I always forget to watch videos, that were announced in advance, because they are already way past the current videos in my subscription box.

[@atukiaos8786]

Same here. I just add them to my "to watch later" watchlist :)

[@verypotato6699]

Blob

[@pokemonmaster42000]

@@atukiaos8786 I have 300 vids in my watch later

[@oqvH]

Chris Bandali I cleared my watch later list a few months ago, took stupid long I had around 400 😭😭😭

[@pokemonmaster42000]

@@oqvH damn

[@wquon2007]

"death rate" would have been an interesting variable, but I can see how that would have been much more complicated.

[@silversunset]

It wouldn't matter. Immune and dead blobs are basically the same value because they both can't contract the virus anymore. The only thing the death toll would add is show us how much the population decreased

[@justace9836]

@@silversunset But when the blob dies from the disease they wouldn't be replaced with a new blob that is susceptible to the disease. That could change the outcome. Also the disease could possibly wipe out the blobs if the death chance was high enough.

[@enderan647]

Adding a chance of acquired immunity can change the result too.. Afaik we don't know yet if cured people from covid is almost 100% immune. Death rate also going to change the result, what will happen with the population after the epidemic.

[@nicgraylin7693]

Rei7 6 rwo87 with a variable is a script ok

[@16m49x3]

It's not really any more complicated than taking the number of people that became grey, and coloring 0.1% of them black.

[@Jayako12]

Well, it would be interesting to add death and age variables. Then you could show the difference between types of demographic pyramids.

[@Ixodes492]

Great videos. I have just discovered them and really enjoy them. I work on infectious disease for a living. R0 is in part determined by the period of infectivity. In this video you talk about modeling an infection with one day infection vs two day infection. It seem that you are inferring the one day infectious period would be “less infectious.” In that case, with all else equal, the R0 cannot remain the same. Setting your RO at a specific number but changing the period of infection would, in practice, indicate that despite a longer period of illness, people are infectious for the same amount of time. I recognize this is just a model, but if you intended to reflect different “infectiousness” I think using a fixed R0 would not work. I could just be misunderstanding what you said. Still cool work!

[@redacted6090]

"Recovered blobs are always immune" Covid: a few months take it or leave it

[@aldondekock6192]

When does this video game drop

[@paganmin8124]

Imagine being a dehydrated bruhify eagle instead of hydrated bruhify pelican smh

[@space__idklmao]

Actually it might be as much as 2 years for some people

[@joshtatko4806]

@@space__idklmao and for some it might not last at all

[@BisexualPlagueDoctor]

@@aldondekock6192 it’s not technically a game it’s a simulation It might be considering a game but I’m pretty sure it’s just considered a simulation

[@SerrynRS]

I love how these blobs are going through evolution, they started as gatherers and now they a city :)

[@salem_spectre]

Yea

[@ellensandanger7566]

BTRXflix I was gonna say that

[@FarelLaban]

And yet they are still naked.

[@xx_thecoolguygaming_xx5040]

@José Labán they don’t have a reason for it in their simulation world

[@Aden068]

José Labán xD

[@benjaminvanscyoc3561]

If you watched this all the way through and you found it interesting and you don't like math then maybe you need a better teacher because this is math

[@emilyau8023]

True I thought I hated math until I went to college and got great professors

[@Wonkess_Chonkess]

The thing is that in school they actually want you to understand the math, all I understand is meth.

[@heron3140]

Imagine being a blob after 21 days of life: my time has come

[@priyapepsi]

In the premiere chat, people were just saying 'blob' and nothing else

[@Fred_the_1996]

And 'mumbo for mayor'

[@justanotheruser2611]

favorite part was when the chat said “blob”

[@coyotedomino]

blob

[@Feelrightathome]

B L U E B L O B

[@GuardianTiger]

@@Fred_the_1996 lol I saw some of those because he 'was' voted by grian to be major for hermitcraft series 7

[@nubcake14]

"Mom, can we get Plague Inc?" "No, we have Plague Inc. at home" Plague Inc. at home:

[@sandybrown3373]

It made me and my brother cry because they were singing Crepy and and stuff

[@nickkohlmann]

@@sandybrown3373 I know what part you mean

[@fard2780]

Me: *_Thanks mom._*

[@sansei0333]

@Ashley I agree

[@coolfred9083]

I'll have the home version thanks

[@TheWorldAndSabi]

this video was shown me today from youtube and i know, this is a simulation but the one at 8:28 realy hit me, looking back at the last months

[@lilliancox2987]

i love your videos. they are my go to while im high and they make me feel smart because they break down concepts i couldn't understand in a way that make sense to me (visuals). i have a hard time learning things without visuals bc of my adhd, and these videos make me excited to learn a tidbit of information a day

[@thenewboeguy_official]

Smae

[@waleedomari9810]

When you’re vibing and you suddenly start turning red Frick

[@lemonsmug]

ah fuck, I can't believe you've done this

[@eadweard2214]

Betrayal

[@LittleIcarus]

I've become a hawk. GIMME HALF OF YOUR FOOD!

[@zeyferdcheddarcheese1096]

*If I can’t have it, you can’t have it*

[@GHOSTrex1324]

WACK

[@pear2369]

“Covid-19” KZbin: *angry yellow dollar sign noises*

[@eathanwinters7737]

PasJong Moua, he probably got permission to. Like emkay... So if he did get permission he can say that...

[@cubeman9766]

Ironically youtubers gave warnings in January and we dident listen intill it was to late

[@mincat2472]

Eathan McNeely and fakejake and everyone else

[@settheshallow8913]

They calmed down about it.

[@motionpotion607]

r/wooosh?

[@hannahdebs4616]

This is really interesting. I'd love to see another one of these but factor in ventilation - if a blob is in a ventialted building they have less chance of catching i from an infected person in the same space. Would reduce the r value.

[@emoryaltman7463]

I always like how neutral and informative your videos are. Best way to teach.

[@therealjezzyc6209]

I'm curious about how we could model the economy during these simulations as well. For example, maybe have the buildings survive by taking in a certain amount of currency supplied by individual blobs. Then try to simulate social distancing and have the blobs stay home once the epidemic reaches a certain threshold. When the epidemic is over, what does the city look like? What if blobs can only survive and live in homes if they have money for rent. How many blobs die of malnutrition and homelessness due to the epidemic, rather than the virus? Maybe even simulate a government's decision making (forcing people to stay home, pretending it's nothing to worry about). And then see how both the economy, and the population is affected. Which decisions ultimately result in the least deaths and infections, as well as the least impact on the economy? Which decision ultimately destroyed both? If one decision happens to save everyone, how badly is the economy damaged? If a decision saves the economy, how do the people suffer? Maybe add a third option: do the people listen? What if the government picked the "best" choice based on our simulations above. Does it still minimize economic and health costs? or if the population refuses to listen to the government, is there any possible scenario where everyone can still be saved? All things considered, which combination of all these variables saves the most lives and money? Models like these would be a lot better at analysing individual countries in my humble opinion. I'm not an epidemiologist, but I assume that these are exactly the kind of models they're building and use when they make predictions. Ultimately, I just want to see how the colourful blobs react under each circumstance lol.

[@clarkebillyjoed.bsrtiiid2472]

I hope he takes the time to read this. Well constructed and a much more sensible comment than anything I've been reading so far

[@triglyceryde4439]

I would love to see a real covid economy simulation

[@etooamill9528]

Off, that would take so much computing power and add a level of complexity that is really hard to code

[@majacovic5141]

Best option: - *free healthcare & paid sick leave* - immediate, strict, brief lockdown. - comprehensive tracing, testing & isolation. - pivot of non-essentials to essentials, eg: fashion & liqor -> masks & disinfectant. - complete freeze on firings, rent & mortgage during lockdown. - temporary salary raise for essential workers; same salary for work from home; unemployment check for shutdown busineses - without loss of jobs. - reopen with mandatory distancing & masks in public. - *severe punishment for non- compliance*

[@therealjezzyc6209]

@@etooamill9528 not necessarily, compute goes down to optimizations, and hardware now a days is really fast. Coding wise it's nothing special either, literally just decision making algorithms on your character classes. Literally extra if/else if statements.

[@pantheracheshire]

I would have liked to see the effect of 1. social distancing on the outcomes in all cases, 2. what if only one person from each household went out (instead of 3), and 3. The effects of masks on people who have the disease in all cases as well.

[@blizzardkiehn2508]

Just lowers the infection rate in different ways, unless you were looking for more insight?

[@gamingbud926]

The problem with 1 and 3 is that they are highly variable. Putting them into the simulation would provide very little tangible data because, at this point, there really isn't an accurate way to simulate such things. If we made broad assumptions, sure, we could test it, but I don't think there is an accurate way to do it just yet.

[@bloozedude6912]

If only one person went out it wouldn't affect the overall outcome because they would just bring the infection back to their "family" so proportionally it shouldn't change anything but it could possibly slow the infection rate by chance.

[@m136dalie]

I doubt you could accurately simulate any of those considering the effects of those things on a large population scale haven't been scientifically proven yet Edit: except #3, for that it is proven that infected people wearing masks are less likely to transmit the disease

[@harunsuaidi7349]

There is a video by KZbinr 3 Blue 1 Brown (I might misremember the name) about this. He ran simulations too.

[@karinkorenkova2059]

it's be interesting in the future where you can full on make an accurate much more complex simulation like this, almost like being real life

[@jessielliott3789]

This is really helpful as a visual. I’d be interested in seeing the model about the various degrees of efficacy of vaccine also with vaccine injuries and long term affects included.

[@gacoya200]

imagine we are a simulation of an omnipotent primer-being

[@ecarlate59700]

That explains why I look like a blob in real life ! *eats mango*

[@taxevasiongaming]

Mmm delicious mangos

[@teraspeXt]

mangoes and wood make me happy

[@hazeltree7738]

Manga and woad makes me happy :D Wait, we're not supposed to like Japanese comics and dye?

[@freezyz9861]

You know to much

[@jamesred7272]

LMAO I THOUGHT THE ‘ERADICATION PHASE’ WAS HUMAN EXTINCTION

[@E4439Qv5]

Based.

[@goggleassistant]

Thats one way to get into that phase tho lmao

[@RavenDravenek]

I mean, the Halo method is quite effective, assuming that no one preserves the thing you’re trying to eliminate.

[@Pharry_]

“Human Extinction” *the best-case scenario*

[@beezahar9109]

It's the same kill rate as the swine flu well be fine

[@david_broz]

Thanks for writing the origins of the words. I appreciate it.

[@fancychicken7386]

Endemic, epidemic, eradication, extinction, economy and ecosystems, this guy loves his e's

[@Claire-tk4do]

Can't forget evolution! (Yes I just discovered this channel and I love it)

[@junkbucket50]

3:22 I love that educational KZbinrs now reference each others work using cards. I'm so proud of the community and how it makes complicated topics easy for people to understand

[@mindythedestroyer2007]

"They go to three places each day"... Me: I was home all day before quarantine, these blobs have better social lives than me.

[@john-maryknight2012]

Same

[@daklit]

I also travel 3 places every day Those being my bed, the bath room and the kitchen.

[@aisstunna2999]

unfunny

[@smitske10]

damn social blobs.

[@pairot01]

Just remove the "Me:" part and you got yourself a good comment

[@marstheplanet0]

i love this sm

[@xerodeus2337]

would love to see this done again over a year later, with two additional pieces modeled in there - deaths from the infection and mutations.

[@diegoag383]

Imagine you are at work and the scetchy red co worker starts coughing

[@samanthashort6135]

Red sus

[@Hewhoroamstheinternet]

@@samanthashort6135 idk man. I think gray sus. He changed color from red to gray.

[@thelongestname9926]

the suspicious red fellow 😳

[@gifted2936]

@@Hewhoroamstheinternet I think red is sus he was blue but probably hacked to be red

[@lll2676]

We have been blessed by having 2 Primer videos in the span of 3 months

[@nezu1673]

It feels good to know that we are currently getting into the eradication phase🥳

[@theonlyshinyumbreon]

I hope wherever you are things are going well, but here in Michigan we're still experiencing record shattering cases.

[@Andyatl2002]

@@theonlyshinyumbreon, that’s because it’s a new strain

[@IgnarHusky]

Lmao no we're not. Covid-19 is always going to be here. It's apart of our natural world and will be an Endemic, especially with population of psychos that deny reality like the vaccines or the virus itself.

[@loganshaw9198]

@@IgnarHusky we are not good at getting to no cases we are good at slowly reducing the cases and making them show up less often and in more limited areas look at the common cold, pneumonia, flu's, Chicken pox, mums, measles or anything you had to take vaccinations for but new strains, mutations or the lesser activity due to lower cases to stop it causes it to still be around.

[@drep6268]

@@IgnarHusky idk if this helps but considering that the 'crazy' are still the most subceptible due to not vaxinated, eventually we'll have them die off more n more so there will be less crazy in the future

[@alvisedonatini2539]

It would be really interesting if you could run some simulation taking into account things like Antibodies-Dependent-Enhancement and vaccine resistance. In my opinion, it would be a wonderful insight!

[@theaurrenian2878]

“A new blob appears, that blob will have a chance to be vaccinated.” *Karen disliked the post*

[@Ndb1997]

Lol

[@subarked1697]

don't woooosh my but a chance to be vaccinated means that not everyone gets vaccinated

[@user-qh5jk1mn5i]

the reason it’s a chance is because of Karens so if she doesn’t like it it’s on her

[@Zoova]

Also it’s hard to vaccinate everyone. There are many many people

[@lizziedoesthings1450]

Yeah, and some people's immune systems actually can't handle vaccinations, so it's very important for those who can to get vaccinated

[@maragazh9993]

remember to take notes, kids

[@verypotato6699]

blob

[@asdfg3046]

blob

[@Peppermynt.]

blob

[@bennytheretriever5032]

blob

[@draqu9960]

blob

[@ishanadkarni4342]

Love these soooooooo much, please make more!

[@atomspalter2090]

GiveDirectly is a good charity. Nice of you to include

[@whatiwonder4299]

Petition for @Primer to add Blob Plushies to the store. Sign here.

[@grandmasterpax3248]

Yesss

[@LaserDawg]

You could have just Linked an actual Petition instead of begging for likes

[@parwastaken]

yes but i wont be able to buy cus im poor boy

[@kkidude8441]

@@LaserDawg Yeah, but how would Primer see it? like if he linked the post, how would he see the signatures? Would somebody ping him on social media?

[@LaserDawg]

He could also just leave the ⏬ away and it would get likes on its own

[@MrGowose]

Primer is super good at making simulations and all but lets talk about how nice his models look, they're all so pleasing to the eyes, not too bright and not too dark.

[@GalaticAnnita_404]

Idk why but watching the blobs running around the city is dizzying and satisfying at the same time

[@electricerger]

Thank you for the lesson in stats used in infectious disease modeling. It's a good primer.

[@breadsandwich7]

“Great video!” - some person before the video premieres

[@mandarinsandclementines2997]

Very enticing

[@thegreatestchigone5813]

It’s a great Video !

[@palmtreesz]

Bread Sandwich wow u are funny memer

[@tateleonhardt1456]

@@thegreatestchigone5813 yea!

[@tudbut]

So true

[@Nen_niN]

This dude has only 11 vids and almost one million subscribers. That's quality

[@sunlynnhatchett3983]

Quality, not quantity!

[@angusdobson5478]

I would love to see an up to date version with what we know about COVID-19 now

[@D1llsta]

This simulation is genuinely fascinating. If you haven't already, write, publish and send me a paper on this!

[@solanine6452]

Me when I see Primer uploads :) Me when I see “premiere in 18 hours” :(

[@tudbut]

Same

[@maryrodriguez976]

16 hours gang!!!

[@someoneyoudontknow7041]

@@maryrodriguez976 :D me toooo

[@solanine6452]

Mary Rodriguez Yeah now

[@mementomori7160]

I'm with all of you!

[@anthonytanevski1976]

Me and a friend actually made a simulation like this but more specifically with covid 19. We used unity and it works similarly. The differences being each person in a house has stats (like health conditions, boredom, etc) that decide their chances of going shopping, hanging out at the park, or death if infected. They also have different phases, not infected, infected without symptoms, and symtomatic which is when they go to the hospital

[@smdae1726]

bro that is the coolest thing i have ever heard of

[@vontrae]

This is one of the coolest channels i've ever come across.

[@PachaJosh]

I think he should make a huge scale simulation with most of the things he's simulated. I don't know how it would work, but it would be fun.

[@AubreyLJohnson]

See everyone in 20 years when our kids show us this and ask us about coronavirus

[@willwimbiscus7456]

Lol that's a smart comment

[@tomatoheadfd]

@@willwimbiscus7456 i think you mean clever. Or accurate.

[@racoonlittle1679]

Well, then, see ya!

[@theknightsofpenandpaper6380]

DeMONITIZED

[@MrViMichael]

But if im still single in 20 years

[@The9thDoctor]

Primer doesn't upload often, but when they do, you know it's going to be good. Thanks as always for the upload!

[@vienmabaiiit6406]

this is so timely in our current situation

[@furthings]

You should add a variable for testing (which allows a blob to know if they are infected or not) and a choice for whether they choose to stay home all of any given day or go out like normal.

[@mileswoest6581]

then set it to where 50% of them will almost always stay inside and the other half will almost always go outside

[@crocxp611]

Poor blobs they don’t deserve to be treated like this. They just got a whole city and now nearly half their population is dying. I do love these vids though

[@coiledsteel8344]

BLOBS LIVES MATTER

[@sleepyboi2232]

@@coiledsteel8344 The blobs have gotten too powerful. We must cull their numbers in order to stop them. Otherwise they will realise all of this is an simulation and their creator and his friends love to see them be killed over and over again. *_They must not know_*

[@TheyCalledMeT]

what do you mean dying? you've seen they all turned grey afterwads? ;) and dieing of age isn't a bad thing it's necessary, else you would end up in insane overpopulation

[@JKMlive]

They all recovered though, so no deaths

[@crocxp611]

I said 𝘥𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨, didn’t say they actually died. Anyway, What I’m saying is that they don’t deserve to be treated that way. Getting infected and all.

[@zanijami]

Turns on the live chat: "MUMBO FOR MAYOR!" "Is this a live stream or a video?" Its cursed

[@xxgimpl0rdxx22]

Blob.

[@henpie3336]

xXGIMpL0rdXx I... wha? IT ESCAPED

[@dontlookatmyvideoREE]

MUMBO FOR MAYOR!

[@nook515]

loli blob

[@zanijami]

@@dontlookatmyvideoREE whyyyy.... stress or scar would be way better and funneir ahhhhh ahem hehe

[@jessikacloutier8006]

Love this video! At school we are building a debate class once a week and the subject of vaccine is coming pretty soon. This give me one good argument now!!

[@paperdevil4885]

This is really helpful. Thank you. I mean it's 2022 but still, thanks. Im just behind on watching videos. YOU RULE PRIMER!!!

[@fourside4237]

When does this video game drop

[@oofman6744]

I can’t tell if this is a joke or not and this is an animated simulation, not a video game

[@Joes.Apprentice]

@@oofman6744 r/wooosh

[@fourside4237]

oksurethisisfine oh I low key would of dropped

[@kiwikiwi2483]

@@fourside4237 Would be fun game tho ngl

[@Official_Goku]

@@kiwikiwi2483 yeah i agree i want this to be a real game it seems like an interesting concept

[@ghostlypirate_5083]

I can’t wait till he starts talking about quantum physics in space with his blobs

[@christopherfang7058]

Blob Space Program

[@idontcarebut9212]

The blobs are already selling rockets...

[@TheTsugnawmi2010]

4:00 This graph was such a clear representation of Herd Immunity for me.

[@jacobcarter6028]

I’d LOVE for you to run this sim with an R Naught value of 7-10. That’s looking like the current omicron value and I wonder if that rapid infectiousness would actually be able to over take the the factor of new people. Effectively giving us herd immunity via natural immunity

[@matthewjosefspira3207]

The best thing I’ve ever seen! (This was written 17 hours before premiering)

[@chemicalyjake455]

wait what

[@mrmagma6556]

THE RETURN OF THE GREAT OLD ONE KEEPER OF KNOWLEDGE AND WISDOM HAS COME! ALL WILL REJOICE!

[@nikkifranz1]

Blob

[@phantomcatxd7637]

Slight correction. Immunity is based on the type of infection and the rate of mutation. Bacterial infections tend to have lower levels of Immunity but are less infectious generallyspeaking, while viruses have high rates of infections and tend to have permanent Immunity. There are some cases of inherited Immunity as well. This does not apply to covid or the model, but it is interesting to note that the bubonic plague created inherited Immunity. Those who got the infection normally died, while those with a genetic anomaly did not cross the threshold for death. The science behind diseases and Immunity is both hard to understand and fun to learn about. Long story short loved the video and getting to experience learning on the topic again.

[@jessyiscute7860]

this is an amazing simulation. thought like you said there is much differences from real life.. .for example you can get a desease multible time, some people are less infectious then other etc...

[@blob7800]

Luckily I was given a vaccine

[@dr.latency8679]

:o

[@iffatmansoor5589]

'○'

[@jphvnet]

Lol

[@jamesali7218]

Rip

[@thomaskriegeer-hinck1778]

😂

[@shush8987]

Jokes on you we have an irl simulation.

[@PS-vr1uv]

sad laughter

[@reginaanderson6733]

hehehe...... comedy........

[@z1re784]

*cough cough* the us in 2020

[@phonixfighter7966]

@@z1re784 cough cough? seems sus.

[@z1re784]

@@phonixfighter7966 its just a fl- flu...

[@joyfulolive]

Thank you, you helped me with my math project, amazing !

[@JGM.86]

I love that this was made in 2020