📊 Eurovision Scoreboard UPDATE & ANALYSIS: NEW ENTRIES 🇵🇱🇧🇪🇲🇩🇪🇪🇩🇰🇱🇹 | Eurovision 2024

[@PinkBread14]

Rubbing my hands with excitement. I love myself from data

[@kaiknlast]

awww yiss you know the ESC season is getting good when Tom starts doing some Excel magic

[@balticthegrapher]

quite an informative video, enjoyed it! I also hope that Finland rises a spot at some point because I love that song

[@emdove]

As an Ireland stan (congrats on finally making the former sentence possible this year! 😁), you're correct. Bambie's very unlikely to drop in my ranking, because I don't see anything similar popping up this year. Which again shows that being polarising can be more successful than having a song that everyone agrees is good, like Latvia.

[@waffleweave]

Excel spread sheets with lots of data being presented by a handsome bloke? Sign me up! ❤

[@maki-0212]

omg yess, right in time for the crazy drops of Feb 29th and Mar 1st

[@Layla-ss1dn]

obsessed with these kinds of videos :D thank you!

[@ESCTom]

❤️

[@pr1y35hm]

great video as always! i'd love to see some kind of analysis of last year's odds history around this time of year compared to the actual results and what that might mean based on this year's odds

[@ESCTom]

yea i can look into that. id probably do that in April though when its a quieter period

[@noniLaus]

Your breakdowns are amazing, they are so clearly structured and you're explaining them in such a easily understandable way. That's coming from someone who is not good with number AT ALL. I love how you not only look at how the ranking has changed, but also how the songs affect each other, where the biggest gains and losses are, etc. Every Eurovision season I'm looking foward to your analyses and predictions. Thank you for making great videos like these!

[@ESCTom]

Thank you NoniLaus for the lovely message ❤️

[@j.a.r2248]

YESSS THE ESC SCOREBOARD ANALYSYS ARE BACK!!! I loved this series last year and I've been wondering if you're gonna come back to it this year and i'm very happy you did!

[@simonkarsten272]

Excellent video! I like the Excel look of things as well as the colour coding. I guess that now that you have spend so much time with graphics design, you also want to change your data presentation, but tables in Excel are perfect for this type of video. They look unpolished but they get the message across easily

[@ESCHayden]

I remember these from last year. I wasn't on MES then (I am now) so it was handy to see the community rankings. Even now it's quite interesting to see how all the entries are affected by new arrivals. The amount of time and effort it must take you to do all this is commendable! I was very much part of the Mustii effect as he went straight to my no1. You were asking about other analysis videos. I think you already do predicted qualifiers and running order analysis. Maybe during the relatively quieter period of April you could do a video with your staging concepts for at least some of the entries. If you were their creative director, what would you do. Just an idea.

[@ESCTom]

Oh yes I love that idea. I already do a bit of that in my video for each country. But April is quiet so there’s time to flesh it out a bit more. Thanks for that 🙏

[@sarahenchanted]

One thing with Denmark that might be notable is their national final wasn't nearly as accessible as the ones taking the place the same day (ie Lithuania, Estonia, and Moldova were being streamed on the Eurovision youtube page while DMGP was being streamed on the broadcaster website and I heard you couldn't rewind that video player like you can on youtube) and they weren't uploading the performances onto youtube while the other 3 were very quick to do that. I believe 2 days later the official ESC page posted Sand and that might've contributed to the increase. I know we had the audio but I think people probably preferred to have more visuals.

[@eoinon]

yesss i’ve been waiting for this!!!

[@Esc_leurovision]

Wow that was such an interesting and amazing entry. I really love your content I’m everyday so exited to see a new video!!! Keep up the amazing work

[@Esc_leurovision]

Also I really love the graphics etc. So imo you don’t need to change anything

[@ESCTom]

thank you ❤️

[@Gimlo_Goblin]

Gimlo is so excited! Very interesting insights and theories, lots of things Gimlo didn't even think about :^O

[@justinkhchen]

Love these analysis videos! Please keep them coming!

[@ESCTom]

❤️

[@mystemo1980]

Love it when you talk stats. Double thumbs up and it'll be interesting to see how the lasagne impacts things

[@jimh8040]

Really nice video, from one analyst to another use commas for numbers with more than 4 digits to make them easier to read, and the number of decimal places is a little inconsistent (10:00). It's interesting to hypothesise about the reason for changes in score and one thing I don't think you mentioned is that if one song enters and it pushes another song down from 1st, 2nd or 3rd it means they lose 2 points, then 8-10th loses 1 point, and 11th and below loses nothing - I think this is likely what happened with Belgium and why there's the bigger splash at the top of the board.

[@Eurocyb]

I love data and statistics! great video!

[@ESCTom]

🙏🏻

[@katarinabernhardsson5054]

Great analysis, you are very pedagogical!

[@FizzPunk]

Excellent presentation Tom. I love how you manage just looking at the statistics and numbers, whilst on the other side emotions are dominating the pack, having a clean and proper outlook about their changes. Keep on going your intense work!! Greetings

[@ESCTom]

❤️

[@beebabeeb]

19:32 I’m so glad they’re in different semi finals, they’re my 2 favourite songs rn so if they’d been in the same one it would’ve been very hard for me to pick which one I’d spill all my votes on😭

[@michelledehaen8997]

Very interesting, thanks a lot ! 👍👍👍

[@M12534]

Love these!

[@someothername7886]

Love these videos :)

[@Letsbegood55]

Fantastic video!!!

[@aliceameliajoseph9436]

Nice vid! 🤍❤

[@Andre_stats_0111]

Love this videos!! Looking into my own ranking, the drop in points could also have to do something with the fact that certain songs are just getting a bit detached from the audience. France, because it's out for so long a time. Malta, because the more I listen to it, the more I get annoyed that it really does sound a lot like SloMo. And Germany because the videoclip and studiocut sounded nice but I was pretty underwhelmed by the live performance. So I think those elements also play a role as to why songs lose more points than expected (and some less).

[@ESCTom]

Yea there’s definitely a novelty bias

[@hrp127]

Your analysis videos are amazing!

[@rubenroxo3827]

Great video, amazing explanations, and i do like the excel sheet ehehe Keep up the good work ✨

[@ESCTom]

Thank you 🤩

[@tonyttt31]

Always great data, Tom. Not sure if I agree with some of your theories. We should see some interesting trends over the next few weeks.

[@ESCTom]

if youve got other theories, definitely share them. i definitely think there are potential other factors that im not thinking of

[@tonyttt31]

@@ESCTom Do you do a calculation on the increase in total points on the score board? Perhaps an increase in users finding the app or bothering to use it for the first time this season might also be a factor in some of the changes that we see.

[@mariiabbbb]

Thnak you for the video, Tom! Excel looks good to me. Maybe if you want a more polished look you can try canva, which is pretty easy for designing tables. etc.

[@ESCTom]

Canva is what is usually use but I've found it absolutely horrendous for tables and data, and it doesnt have any colour gradients. Anytime i paste some data in, it makes it look really bad, and it means that i cant work on the formulas in real time 😭

[@annakobuk3618]

We are only half-way through the songs as for now but I feel that this will be the most open year since at least 2021. Lots of songs have staunch fans as well as large groups of anti-fans. Many potential jury baits and televote magnets plus some possible wldcards. I don't think this year's gonna be very excellent musically but very fiverse genre wise and unpredictable up until the last weeks or even days!

[@annakobuk3618]

*diverse - autocorrect is crazy sometimes

[@Marcepan541]

Your work and dedication is extremely appreciated ❤

[@ESCTom]

❤️

[@matt_maciek]

I don't want to brag too much but I called the Slovenia-Belgium correlation. I think it's worth to compare not only the genre or the general aesthetics of the songs but also their structure: it's very important HOW we listen and what we expect from a song psychologically. I suspect there is a portion of these two songs' listeners who are maybe a little more patient and instead of demanding instant gratification they appreciate being guided/taken on a journey as the music progresses: None of the songs try to impact you with full force right away, instead they use enough restraint in their verses to leave a lot of space for build-up, choruses are distinct enough but could essentially act as pre-choruses under different circumstances, finally what appears to serve as the real choruses and probably the most memorable parts of both are the vamps - the focal points are clearly the closing parts (also, incidentally in both cases it's confirmed by when we get to hear the titles). Their genres aren't miles away either, of course, but it only makes the structure similarities more important.

[@ESCTom]

Yep I totally agree. There’s such an overlap in so many different aspects of these two songs

[@OlivierSteinier]

its a super interesting analysis

[@arjunasokakumar9895]

I think you’re the bee’s knees. As a Data Scientist by day, this channel is like a perfect Venn diagram of my job vs obsession

[@ESCTom]

❤️

[@cendrapolsner8438]

Sweet analysis going on here, loving it! Overall, I don't see the musical quality across the board being as strong as 2021-2023, but it's at least a pretty diverse line-up. But that said, there are some clear groupings forming in style-overlaps irrelevant of their current actual position on the scoreboard or in odds, like the "girl-bop-corner" and the "quirky-hype-highstreet". Meaning that for example the girl-bops (Malta, Luxemburg, Denmark, probably Austria, Greece?) will vy for each others votes, likewise will the "televote quirkmasters" like Estonia, Finland, Croatia and to a degree Ireland. At the top, diversity roams free, with almost no similarities or style overlaps between Norway, Lithuania, Ukraine and Italy and Belgium BUT all of these having a very solid fanbase, deeply rooting for them. So, bottomline, I think voting & scores will be far more exciting this year because neither do I see a strong singleminded televote for one or two entries only, nor any clear jury faves. Last year got really shredded by the Käärijä vs Loreen situation with both being literally drenched in everyones votes and leaving mere crumbs for the rest. This year promises a far more narrow and exciting scoring! Last year killed me because I had like 12 entries I really really thought to be high quality and I loved them but it was clear they would not stand a chance at succeeding anywhere out of the midfield behind the Finland/Sweden duel. This year, while I have only 4 songs I REALLY love (lowest rate in some time now), at least I know an exciting race is gonna be ahead!

[@Drag_on_king]

Could you make a video comparison of the odds and Eurovision scoreboard later in the season

[@ESCTom]

yep ill do something like that later in the season ❤️

[@rima8111]

As a data analyst, these types of videos make my heart sing 💜

[@HZ-fg9sf]

Honestly, I was surprised that Luxembourg was rated so high and Malta is rated so low because her preformance was really something. I think by the end, Luxembourg is definitely going to drop down and Malta is probably going to continue to drop down as more dance pop girlies join (aka Cyprus and Austria) and then go back up a little bit when we see the rehearsals in malmo. I think Ireland lost points due to Poland only because Poland came around the same position for many people as Ireland rather than due to any similarity in their potential acts.

[@Leifdk1]

I think once Malta release their entry on streaming platforms they may actually rise as people will get to listen to it more and in better sound quality.

[@Rafaelinux]

The % of points being lost not being linear is probably due to the lack of strength of the songs this year. Outside of the top four most people. Just rank in terms of "not badness", instead of them actually being liked. So these mid table "meh" songs can get their positions mixed up with each update, and most points being lent to new songs entering the table will come from them

[@ESCTom]

the same thing happened last year where top of the table was rarely affected by newbies

[@adamtideman4953]

Interesting analysis. Personally I'm quite lazy when it comes to updating the scoreboard app, I think I still have the same top 10 as I had in early februari with Spain and Luxembourg in my scoreboard even though they've grown off me quite a bit by now. It will be interesting to see which country will be the new Sudden Lights of this year that has sticking power throughout the season. I'm still in the Bambie Thug cult and don't see it leaving my top 10 anytime soon.

[@Ben-Immnl]

Finally 🙌🫶

[@patrickmackin2941]

I don't see why ppl are going so hard for Italy this year its a song you would hear on any radio station nothing groundbreaking

[@ESCTom]

I’ve never heard anything like that on the radio

[@eamonnduggan4195]

Before this excellent video, I thought Bambie was a banker to make it out of semi final 1, and go on to have a decent showing. However with 17 countries yet to join that scoreboard things feel less certain

[@Oliver_S]

I think Finland is near the top of a lot of people's ranking but also near the bottom of others because it is like a marmite song with the fans imo so that's my theory of why they only lost a small percentage. I enjoy these Videos as a person who likes statistics.

[@GruTheGruer]

Hello tom!

[@cmgoodell]

It would be interesting to see these by semifinal

[@ESCTom]

yes good idea, i will do something at the end of the next one where i break it down by semi to see who is "qualifying" according to the fans

[@jelbertie]

I’m very excited to see if Slimanes performance at Dora has an impact on his points, I know he’s gone up a few places for me!

[@martinjmcc1981]

I think I'll prefer the analysis vids, I have done the last few years too

[@Martino_2024]

I don’t know why they don’t hire you as an official judge of Eurovision! You are the best ❤️

[@ESCTom]

🙏🏻❤️

[@Martino_2024]

@@ESCTom I forgot to mention that you are also HOT

[@catarinavh1835]

About Belgium doing so much damage at the top, doesn't that also have to do with the fact that if you go from 1st to 2nd, or 2nd to 3rd, on someone's ranking, you lose 2 points, but if you go from 4th to 5th for example, you only lose 1? So, Belgium being many people's number 1, 2 or 3

[@ESCTom]

yep thats exactly it

[@NikolajMohar]

Hey Tom, in regards to you wanting to do content where you don't have to worry about copyright, I was thinking it could be interesting to see a video about "voting abandonment". What I mean by this is for example Australia's result from last year and them winning their semi, but doing really poorly in the televote in the grand final. It could be fun to see some stats as to where their points when and if there are any patterns when it comes to being able to vote for everyone and not just the countries in your own semi. I was also wondering if it could be possible for you to share your stats on Google Drive or something like that, since I'm no mathematical genius myself, but I do find it interesting to digging deep in these statistics you make :D

[@cokolesnik]

I am slovenian and I love Belgian song too :( oh no Raiven

[@SANDRICA252]

For me its quite opposite couse Belgium is a bit boring and video like he was imitating Slovenia (colours, some moves, I think even body painting), could be, Slovenia was out much earlier

[@ThaGamingMisfit]

Statistics and theories, yes ! I think it's quite cool to have this data because only real Eurovision fans will pay to use this app for this year. I'm very happy for my personal favorite Norway who looks very stable, I really hope they end top 3, top 5 looks very real. I don't think it can win because many Eurovsion fans can't stand guitars. Also happy for our Mustii, it's very rare to have this feeling my country will end top 10 almost guaranteed.

[@emdove]

The app is free for ranking all songs though, you only have to pay to rank national finals, and the semis and grand final separately.

[@ThaGamingMisfit]

@@emdove oh then I did something wrong, the app is working very bad in general though for me.

[@emdove]

@@ThaGamingMisfit he's using My Eurovision Scoreboard, right? Last year it also lagged a bit when I used it, but this year it's fine. Sadly I'm not a tech person, so I have no idea why you're experiencing problems :/

[@nikolag.-rb5ql]

Wow, I really like this types of videos, with a lot of statistics. First, what you mentioned on the end, all Croatia🇭🇷 (me too, of course) are waiting for tomorrow evening and Baby Lasagna win. So, when Belgium🇧🇪 entered Slovenia🇸🇮 lose a lot of points. I think that similar can happen if (or I hope WHEN) Baby Lasagna enter in the scoreboard. He could take a points away from Norway🇳🇴, as Belgium from Slovenia. Cause both are rock acts with quite an overlap. And maybe also from Czechia🇨🇿, but less, cause Czechia is lower in the scoreboard.🤔🤔

[@ESCTom]

yea its actually going to be super interesting, because its not a very typical Eurovision song. I think youre right about Norway and Czechia, and also Loredana if she wins in San MArino as well tonight

[@ar50000]

Albania all in English? It will ruin it.

[@lachysims6327]

statistics make me feel things inside, thankyou for this feeling Tom 🤣🤣🤣

[@ESCTom]

😂❤️

[@Emi1ia.1]

Could you please also share your board? Great work with all the %.

[@ESCTom]

i wont be sharing in the coming weeks as I want to keep some surprise for my Top 37 video

[@Emi1ia.1]

@@ESCTom Fair enough, looking forward to that

[@mariklicman7259]

Belgium and Ukraine are the best ❤❤❤

[@ESCOscar]

Do you have a Scoreboard app group?

[@ESCTom]

yea, but it's for my Patreons

[@kimslice9993]

I wonder what will happen if baby lasagna wins Dora.. he’s going to do so much damage! ❤ He’s my number 1 this year 😊

[@Werderina]

Hi Tom! ESC has really been a drag for Germany. I have also noticed that right after Isaak was chosen, there were more positive reactions but in the meantime influencial sources have come up with their verdict, which generally is „a last place conteder“. I am not surprised but I have to admit that I haven‘t found many great songs this year and I consider it a bit unfair that always Germany is blamed for being boring, mediocre, repetitive, uninspired and so on. Why do People make it seem what only Germany delivers average stuff? Other entries are like that, too. But as it is… if any country has a mediocre song, they get less points. If we have a mediocre song, it gets zero. 😂

[@ESCTom]

i totally agree about last year being unfair, but this year i dont have the same feeling im afraid. Germany chose a great performer with a very generic X factor song that has no personality. and theres no staging. he walks around an empty stage with some basic LEDS. There were other songs that has would have done well, like Ryk or Bodine and even Maria would have felt unique. Instead a very generic song was chosen. Any country who chose something like this would be bottom 5, its not a Germany thing.

[@Werderina]

@@ESCTomI don’t think that all the other songs are better. Still no fan of this song, but for me there isn’t much to love this year. Staging? Our song with it’s rather depressive lyrics is not made for joyful or crazy performance and Isaak isn’t the type for it. You know, there have been many successful songs at Eurovision with no special staging. Ryk, the favourite of some, had a kind of very distant, „frozen“ performance that left many people cold. The international jury also disliked it. Isaak at least is an authentic human being. And he is getting ripped apart. LOTL were able to deal with the result. I fear, Isaak won‘t. 🤷‍♀️

[@florazabeli4875]

No audio!!!!!

[@konstantinkoychev1781]

I really enjoy these videos every year, but I do have to say that I disagree with some of your logic for when a new entry comes in. I think the losses that happen with a new entry is more to do with who was towards the bottom of the individual top 10s. That's why it's common that usually the biggest drops happen towards the bottom of the scoreboard, as one can assume that those had some 1s and 2s that have turned into 0s and 1s now. For example, a good exception seems to be Finland - in the latest sample, it barely dropped any points - this is a very polarizing song that a lot of people would have in their top 5 Also, following the same logic, it's quite obvious that Belgium placed 1st/2nd/3rd for many users which caused the biggest drops in the top 5 instead - don't forget that dropping from 1st to 2nd or 2nd to 3rd means you lose 2 points instead of just one.

[@ESCTom]

I disagree with you there. I think someone losing more points could imply that they have lost more two points rather than 1 points, implying that they were in the first second and third place slots and have moved down one place from that

[@ivovasilev9592]

I really like your videos mate but your delusions about Ireland’s song having a shield is funny. 😂

[@ESCTom]

Time will tell 😅

[@TheManInBlueFlames]

I DO think they're overrating Norway, Spain and Slovenia and underrating Finland and Germany, but that could just be me! Also, poor Luxembourg dropping so much! France went down because the song was getting stale UNTIL his recent performance which will make it shoot up. At the end of the day, these scores often dont represent the FINAL result at Eurovision. I have a feeling Croatia will end up in the top FOR A LONG TIME should a certain small meal be served at Dora...

[@mikenelson1624]

👍✨😎💫❤️‍🔥✌️🤍

[@SteveVandeVoorde]

Belgium is still my Number 1 ❤ go Mustii

[@Rash23215]

I hope u don't mind me asking..... r u some sort of analyst.... like financial analyst or tech analyst???

[@ESCTom]

no im a physio

[@Rash23215]

@@ESCTom damn..... that's some talent right there.....

[@niccolo.zezza.300]

Italyy🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹

[@zimsuk]

Think i just got excel'led 😂

[@rinjoo3]

I somewhat agree with the scoreboard, but Italy is way too high (like every year i guess 🙄) and Spain maybe too. And Finland is much better than half of the songs released so far. I still believe its down there just because the haters who wanted Sara 😁

[@niccolo.zezza.300]

Have u listened to La Noia??🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹😍😍😍

[@rinjoo3]

@@niccolo.zezza.300It sounds just average female-dance pop song that Eurovision is (usually) full of, nothing interesting or extraordinarily catchy or memorable, unless they revamp the performance for eurovision.

[@OakSky]

I hate this app. Putting the songs in order was a nightmare.

[@ESCTom]

you get used to it. once youve done your first sort, youre usually only making small changes anyway

[@Ben-Immnl]

Actually I’m waiting for the day when Bambie Thug will climb up the table and overtake all the pop songs (like Poland, Denmark or Luxembourg) before them.

[@PerticaJr]

I don't understand how Germany is so low while Belgium does the same for 2/3rds of the song.

[@ESCTom]

germany's song is not even remotely in the Belgian song's league IMO

[@PerticaJr]

Belgian is better no doubt, but I don't feel they are SO different. @@ESCTom

[@ghigno6]

I really don't get the hype about Italy. I mean Angelina seems like a good performer, charismatic and her singing is nice but the song is so generic and kinda annoying. That balkan-like music and the repetitive 'la noia' are catchy indeed, but that's about it.

[@aleksapetkovic8722]

Serbia dark horse!

[@bizcraftzone]

WTF😂 where is CROATIA 🇭🇷

[@ESCTom]

they havent picked their song yet

[@bizcraftzone]

@ESCTom Then, on Sunday, the chart is changing 👌

[@xxigeorge]

I don't love Noway but I can definitely see the appeal, but with Belgium on the other hand, I do not get the hype at all. For me it's the fourth worst song so far. It's not bad, the only songs I truly dislike so far are Poland and Finland. But Belgium is just boring to me. Moldova and Albania on the other hand I feel like deserve a few more points. I even grew to really love Czechia! Malta I feel like should be in Luxembourg's place. If we can only have one basic poppy dancy girlie in the top ten we could at least pick the better one lol Slovenia, Spain and Italy are my top three so far

[@xibir]

Lithuania tends to be overrated and frankly speaking annoying and yawnworthy at the same time.

[@GossipGirl770]

How is it overrated if people love it 😃

[@hotpepper8594]

That's just your opinion buddy

[@ar50000]

It's more like a techno track that one would dance to at rave.

[@Citrinana]

Jealous much

[@rasarasa9636]

Lithuania🇱🇹 song is amazing👍😍❤❤❤

[@Iamyouiay]

As always, amazing job !