Evaluating current Vegas hurdles for A's (with Neil deMause)

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Check out Neil deMause's work: www.fieldofschemes.com
Chapters:
0:00 About "Field of Schemes"
3:16 "Potential" A's relocation & how it compares to others
10:45 Where are those renderings?
13:03 Bally's vs. A's plans on site
15:58 Inflation, interest rate, and overruns in Vegas
18:12 Going back to Howard Terminal
24:39 A's situation vs. Rays situation
28:05 A's situation vs. Royals situation
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#mlb #baseball #vegas

[@brodiebrazil]

Some other videos you might like: 6 Ways Vegas could have made A's move EVEN EASIER 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/i6q2ZmitYrdsrLM Vegas Journalists share questions about A's relocation 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z3vTc2qdr52gmMk This final video of 2023... is for Oakland A's fans. 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/hmHcan9ufc9kgbc Would A's use Super Bowl LVIII to reveal Vegas ballpark renderings? 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/fqPdXqWff99jfKc "Sell the Team" Pistons chants DIFFERENT than Oakland A's fans 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/hnrYl5aGqs-jaLc 5 Things I don't know about A's, Vegas right now... 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/jXu2lKKjoaiElc0 Why keep the A's name in Vegas? 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/g4Dbh3p7l75pfs0 Explaining what has (and hasn't) happened in Oakland 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/hHiWgaB_jsZoqbc Could A's purchase more ballpark land at Tropicana Vegas site? 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/fYjOepmNnZlkn8k Life of an Oakland A's fan in 2023 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/n4KQZHh9idygfas I don't think the A's want Summerlin (before Vegas) 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/hIi9i4ylrs2Vpac Vegas native Paul Sewald: "No one wants the Las Vegas A's" 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/omeUq3Shi5t5esU Where are A's ballpark renderings for Vegas...? 📺 kzbin.info/www/bejne/farOl2udlLSsfJY

[@whalesequence]

This was a great listen. This guy really knows his stuff. Thanks for bringing him on Brodie

[@DanB-ez8fz]

I was hoping you’d interview Neil. Thank you for tapping into his insights, Brodie, and sharing them.

[@WestCoasting206]

I read his site religiously during the potential Kings to Seattle move. He is critical but fair. Extremely knowledgeable.

[@pioneer8634]

Just hope that the Ballers are a true success story in Oakland hate to see it go any other way at this point

[@auburncatfish417]

Fisher seems fairly incompetent. How accurate is that, really, based on what we can see?

[@cyrangan9088]

Regarding the “flip tax”: I don’t believe that the owners created this provision to disincentivize Fisher from selling. As we all know, the owners are notorious for “protecting their own”. I would argue that they already KNOW Fisher is planning to sell after the A’s move to Vegas, because Fisher knows the team’s value will jump to over 2 billion, maybe 2.5. They created the tax to ensure that they’ll all get something out of it. If the true reason for the tax was a disincentive, it would not have come out as a leak. In reality, the tax is an insurance policy for the other owners to profit from an inevitable pump-and-dump sale.

[@brodiebrazil]

not impossible

[@dorothygale1104]

Keep in mind that any increase in the value of the A’s does not necessarily represent any profit to Fisher if he sells the team because there is an associated cost Fisher/the A’s will incur in order to achieve any increase in the team’s value, specifically, the $1.1 billion (or more) share of stadium construction costs that the A’s are responsible for funding (which will be financed). In order for Fisher to just break even on the sale of the relocated team, the value of the A’s would have to increase by at least $1.1 billion (or whatever the amount of the A’s share of the stadium financing is) because that debt would have to be paid off from proceeds of the team’s sale, as a new team owner won’t assume that debt and, even in the highly unlikely event an owner would assume that $1.1B+ debt, there would be a downward purchase price adjustment to account for that debt being assumed. The $1.1B+ financing won’t/can’t be mortgage financing on the stadium because the stadium will be owned by the same Stadium Authority that owns the Raider’s stadium (it won’t be owned by the A’s), which is how they get around not paying property tax, and as a government entity and asset, there can’t be a mortgage on the property securing the debt of a non-property owner. Additionally, the A’s won’t be paying rent to use the stadium, so there won’t be any cashflow from the stadium that a mortgage lender could look to as a source to service that debt. So, the $1.1B+ financing will be an obligation of the A’s/Fisher and the cashflow of the A’s/Fisher is what a lender would look to as the source of debt service on that financing. The flip tax would have to account for the $1.1B+ financing, otherwise Fisher would have to sell the team for an even higher price to break even after paying off the financing and the flip tax. I’m assuming the flip tax applies to sales proceeds in excess of the amount of the financing or relocation costs because selling the team for $1.1B more than the A’s are currently worth does not yield any profit to Fisher due to the financing that would have to be paid off from sales proceeds. Many commenters in various videos are viewing an increase in the value of the A’s from the potential relocation as all profit to Fisher and not accounting for the cost (debt) that Fisher is responsible for to achieve such value increase. The value of the A’s would have to increase by more than the amount of the financing of the A’s share of stadium construction cost plus any other relocation cost in order for the relocation to yield any profitability (if sold) or increase net equity (if held). Any increase in the value of the A’s from a relocation isn’t free money to Fisher.

[@matthew7491]

DeMause's Field of Schemes book changed my whole perspective on stadium financing. It's definitely a must-read. It's dated now, but just as relevant as ever.

[@adamdoyle6495]

any info/comments on Joe Lacob's interest in buying the A's from Fisher?

[@p.slezak8897]

been following field of schemes sing the beginning. always great information and makes you wonder why? owners have the money to build on their own.

[@Mr.Ed_Wayner]

What an awesome guest. He certainly knows his facts.

[@jamesholt3758]

Extremely informative.

[@someguy7222]

Fisher could sell....his problems would go away. Sigh....dammit...

[@BoulderCityBlues]

So the plan is Tampa Bay moves to Kansas City , Kansas City moves to Oakland and Oakland moves to Las Vegas

[@Mr.Ed_Wayner]

How funny, while I watch this video, I’m watching my Islanders play the Coyotes at Mullet Arena.

[@chrisw443]

I am very angry about private sports using public money. Its always bothered me. In PDX if mlb came, theyd pay for it. the veterans coliseum a historical building the city helped pay for a renovation and keep it a dual stadium for basketball and winterhawks hockey. There is zero reason these historical buildings cant be renovated and remain historical pillars of the community. If the mlb came talking here, theres providence park, work a deal with the soccer teams and have a loved lived in home. I am especially upset the coliseum in oakland cant be remodeled and saved and have continued useage. Its sad. why are we always taking down these buildings?

[@brodiebrazil]

i'd say the coliseum would be a very difficult facility to try and improve (at this point). it missed its chance for upgrades in the 80's, 90's

[@pacificcoasttrains3785]

The kinds of renovations (adding more luxury suites, and additional areas for shopping/commerce) aren't really feasible (or at least not economically easy) in the current stadium.

[@HHSGDFootballJPD]

It starts when we build specific structures for specific purposes-- the first baseball grandstands were nice wooden bleachers in a corner of a park where they played baseball. Then we add in specific conditions (dual use or cheap location to build) or are given nice amenities to justify paying higher ticket prices (suites and club seats). And then we figure it's cheaper to destroy and to build again rather than renovate what we have, especially if someone else is paying for it. My thought with the Coliseum was how do you renovate the 1st and 3rd baselines to bring fans in all decks closer to the action. I haven't done the money--but if I had to rebuild most of the original grandstand anyway, why don't I build a brand new one someplace else.

[@KittyPurrfect100]

So are the A’s going to have more away fans than local fans at ballpark name to be determined? Athletics don’t have a national brand like Yankees or Dodgers. How are you going to make money with a losing team in new market? Novelty only goes so far.

[@delcodave]

i live in Vegas. work here, spend time on strip, fremont and suburbs. In the past year, I have not seen one Vegas A's fan walking around town with an A's jersey or ball cap. Where are all the Vegas A's fans? Where are all the residents clamoring for the A's to move to Vegas? Brody should come to Vegas and interview the locals and see how many residents gennuinely want the A's to come here.

[@ashleyberdosh6025]

Correct me if I’m wrong but in a previous video Brodie, isn’t something written in the contract or whatever that it has to be on that site?

[@brodiebrazil]

The $380m of public money says it has to be at the Tropicana site

[@kevintheomanharris]

Let's Go VegA's! Home Means Nevada!

[@ag5795]

If you go to a city or a state and ask for money for a new museum, auditorium, orchestra, art gallery, the answer is pretty much “yes”. That’s tax dollars from working class people to pay for recreational activity by wealthy people. But if the working class dares to ask for a subsidy for something they like then all of a sudden it’s “you’re asking us to subsidize billionaires”.

[@trclark7689]

Interesting... I'm very far from wealthy but often go to museums and art galleries. Occasionally, I'll even attend an orchestra, a broadway show, or even an opera. Generally, all of those events are cheaper than an NFL ticket and most of them are pretty on par with the cost of an MLB game, depending on what city you're in. Most people view those as public enrichment whereas an NFL or MLB game are considered entertainment. IMHO, there's a difference between the public financing something that educates and enriches the lives of their citizens and the public financing something of a facility for a guy that can afford to build it himself with the only take away being lining his pockets. I say that sincerely as a huge football and baseball fan. If you're not into the finer arts, that's cool, but they're not just for "the wealthy." Hell, most museums (at least in my area) even have times where admission is free.

[@ag5795]

@@trclark7689 Fair points. However, there’s a bit of snobbery in the view that sports, particularly professional sports, are mindless entertainment and don’t enrich the lives of those who participate and those in the audience. There is also a great sense of community at sporting events. Also the reason admission is so low at the publicly financed orchestra or art gallery is because they are often heavily subsidized by taxpayers. If people actually had to pay what it costs to run those institutions, the price of admission would be much higher.

[@trclark7689]

@@ag5795 we can certainly agree to disagree. One thing, I never said that professional sports was mindless entertainment and that it didn't enrich the lives of those that participate in the games or the audience. What I said was that museums, performing arts centers, operas, symphonies, orchestras, etc are all things that anyone can do and learning about such things enriches peoples lives. Very few people in our society will grow up to be professional athletes and even fewer will grow up to be multi-billionaires that can afford to own a team. Professional sports appeal to certain segments of society, the performing arts, arts, and educational facilities like museums benefit everyone. I disagree with the notion that most of these are government subsidized. Most museums will close or barely scrape by to keep the lights on and employees paid. Most of them have exhibits that were temporarily donated to them and either take donations only or sell tickets as a way to keep the lights on. The performing arts center in my city is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. They keep the lights on and the bills paid via donations from several large companies in town. The performers keep the proceeds from their ticket sales. Sure, they're not paying property taxes, but it's not like they're billionaires demanding that taxpayers give them a billion dollars so that they can continue to rake in cash. Building stadiums is always a losing proposition for taxpayers. You're paying low prices for tickets because you're playing in an ancient facility and the ownership can't justify gouging you. So one day, the owner says hey taxpayers, I want a new stadium and I need you to give me a billion dollars. So fearing that you'll lose your team, you give them a billion dollars. Then what happens? Along with the billion you just handed over, you now are going to pay a 100% markup on tickets because you're watching your team in a brand new facility. Half of the fans that agreed to spend their tax dollars on a new stadium have now been priced out of ever seeing their team again. That doesn't happen with museums and the performing arts.

[@ag5795]

@@trclark7689 Again you’ve made fair points. I went to NYC last year. I took my family to the Natural History Museum and a Yankees game. Because I was not an NY resident, I paid the full price of admission to the NHM. It was the same price as the Yankees’ game. The facts is that NY residents are subsidized to visit the NHM and that money comes from taxpayers.

[@traci635]

Taypayers should be paid back by these owners. This is ridiculous! We don't pay taxes to support billionaires. Taxes are designed to run local, State and Federal governments, not luxury items for spoiled billionaires! Fisher needs to be forced to sell the team to a group who keeps them in Oakland. As a Nevada native, long moved away, my family is going to be taxed to bring the A's to Vegas and there nowhere near Vegas and they are not baseball fans. This should be on the ballot so Nevada tax payers have a say. Not the billionaires who run the gaming industry who want this!

[@reesejabs1895]

Baseball wouldn't do well in Las Vegas. Moving the team there is a recipe for disaster.

[@sawyertuide7636]

I think worse case for Fisher, he doesn’t have the funding, and the MLB flat out forces him out for a buyer in Las Vegas + part of his sale goes to the MLB. As much as I would love to see it go back to Oakland, I can’t see it. At this point, the A’s are likely closer to the end than the Rays.

[@georgehand]

The only hurdle for the Athletics is the Athletics

[@traci635]

Fisher is a billionaire, let him figure it out! He made his bed, let him lie in it. The MLB owners are crazy to approve this move this is awful for baseball. Vegas can't support this team, and given Fisher fields a AA team, when you have all this entertainment around you.....tourists wont bother to pay to watch the A's, unless the Dodgers, Red Sox or Yankees are in town.....

[@TeeeDay]

Man…I’ve no bait in this…but this guy reminds me of Zennie62 who had people believing that the Raiders won’t leave Oakland….the A’s are leaving! Get over it soon. It’s not worth the headaches.

[@bullwinkle2380]

It's a done deal!!! The A's are moving to Vegas!!! It sucks!!! Thanks for nothing John Fish Face!!!