Fed Fumbles: Is the Economy at a Tipping Point? - David Rosenberg

Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates, about the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Rosenberg scrutinizes the Fed's approach to interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, offering his analysis on whether we are at a critical tipping point. He also provided insights into consumer demand, small business investment, and the potential for a looming debt crisis. Rosenberg provides an outlook on the financial markets as we navigate through an election year.
Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron ( / jeremyszafron )
Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW ( / kitconewsnow )
Follow David Rosenberg on X: @EconguyRosie ( / econguyrosie )
0:00 - Introduction
1:47 - Fed's Rate Decision: No Surprises
2:42 - Inflation Trajectory and Market Reaction
3:42 - Consumer Demand and Economic Trends
5:03 - Supply Dynamics and GDP Forecast
6:22 - Inflation Concerns and Fed's Strategy
7:39 - Risks of Over Tightening and Economic Impact
9:01 - Small Business Sector and Investment Trends
10:32 - Political Factors Affecting Fed Decisions
12:43 - Future Economic Outlook and Recession Possibility
14:09 - Closing Thoughts and Analysis
#fed #federalreserve #economy #interestrates #gold #equities #recession #inflation #commoditiesmarket
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[@QuangNguyen-pf3eh]

Sit back and watch the wave of small business bankruptcies tick up.

[@acornsucks2111]

I've been hearing that for years. Keep repeating to yourself, collapse, collapse.

[@QuangNguyen-pf3eh]

@@acornsucks2111 where did I say collapse?

[@bdek68]

@@acornsucks2111everything is great cornsuck!

[@prolific1518]

​@@acornsucks2111 you haven't been paying attention buddy

[@headspaceandtiming2114]

The Debt is the beast at the door. National Debt and personal Debt. It’s hungry. Hope you are all ready.

[@Peonies925]

🎯🎯🎯

[@MrJuanete12]

The ironic thing about what you just said, which is true!, is that US treasuries will initially sky rocket when the crash comes... Who would have known???

[@cvgguy98]

Got my gold, silver, strong positions in the miners and more to deploy when the market rolls over...I'm ready.

[@Chuck68ify]

True, but Inflation is a Civilization ender.

[@headspaceandtiming2114]

@@cvgguy98 that’s good. Some of us will make money in the fire sale to come.

[@dangood2287]

This is the Roaring 20s, it will end the same

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Gonna end 2029 your right on if not by 2027 it will By 2032 but your spot on

[@acornsucks2111]

It always ends sometime, but take your money out by then.

[@user-pg9yj4be6x]

in 20's there were only 11% public in market today its 63%

[@dangood2287]

@@vincentmurphy9252 come back when the NBeR will announce retroactively the recession began now

[@prolific1518]

​@@dangood2287won't happen until after the election

[@lrww5673]

David is always great and Jeremy has been doing a fantastic job asking the right questions. Professional job all around.

[@slowride9994]

great presentation.

[@fkrr5]

I like Dave and everything he says is true. But the stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

[@prolific1518]

Speak for yourself. Easy to repeat narratives

[@johnrubino7604]

Checked this week with M & T bank and their Prime Rate is 8.5%. Two years ago it was 3%. A lot of Home Equity Loans are tied to the Prime Rate!! These rate increase won't be fully felt until August 2024. Consumer Punch bowl is long gone. Look out below.

[@MrJuanete12]

Longer for Higher... Yes!!

[@vincentmurphy9252]

He was 100% transitory !!!!funny on these channels no one accountable for there errors

[@acornsucks2111]

That was a democrap talking point.

[@reinhardrinaldo350]

David was in the Transitory camp...and apparently he still is.

[@anthonyferris8912]

Then again life is transitory....isn't it? 😀

[@mattfoster2021]

Lower interest rates hurt “savers”. They help “The Market / casino” Why lower rates? 5%-7% should be the goal for the next decade.

[@firstlast1732]

He doesn’t have to raise or lower all he has to do is say he’s going to do it it has the same effect on the market this way you keep the economy strong for the election with a rate decrease and yet never do it so he can’t be blamed if things go bad it’s just psychology

[@johnmerlino7011]

Inflation is rising again. In the last two weeks, gas is up 20 cents. I just received my 2025 Real Estate Taxes and my property was reevaluated up 30%, my insurance went up, my electric bill went up double digit, food/restaurant prices are very high, ...

[@mjbucar]

David R. is ALWAYS an excellent guest speaker. Thank you!

[@acornsucks2111]

Fed is not even restrictive. The Dow will be at 50k soon.

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

The fed can keep the game going for 50+ years, with the help of government spending.

[@alfredomarchione6017]

🤦‍♂️.. some just never know when to quit.

[@stargazer5073]

Reports have been corrupted, ahreed.

[@EikTuKaTu]

The more educated financial expert speaks, the less they know. Inflation is absolutely insane and on a mid 6-figure salary you can barely make ends meet. 99% of people are broke and skipping meals. What are these people talking about here?

[@acornsucks2111]

Who is skipping meals using their SNAP card?

[@Chuck68ify]

The 5%.

[@josephjames259]

If someone is barely making it on six figures, they took on too much debt during the easy money days. Interest rates are not high enough yet. Interest and inflation were much higher in the early 1980s.

[@davebellamy4867]

Those people have been consuming way too much then. They need to consume less but I guess they are also all in on debt beyond their eyeballs, so too bad. Serfs have been living as if they were kings - and they're not kings.

[@michaelalpine4198]

You will be proven right in time, David.

[@RWROW]

The Fed was clear tthat it wanted an average 2% inflation rate. Averaging inflation over the past couple of years, the inflation rate has averaged closer to 4%. Just dropping to touch 2% isn't success according to Powell. It needs to drop below 2% for a prolonged period to average 2%. To do otherwise is unfair to tne average American.

[@EikTuKaTu]

how about 10% deflation for 3 years to compensate all this insane printing since 2008?

[@donragnar8430]

“Unfair to the average American” lol The Fed is there to raise raise to bring prices into a discount for the top 10% to buy and to lower rates to bring asset prices into a premium to allow the top 10% to sell first. The average guy/gal investing in narratives is the pig being slaughtered on both sides

[@prolific1518]

A recession is required to get back to 2% and the establishment won't allow the Political Reserve to do that in Biden's reelection year. 3% is the new normal

[@donragnar8430]

The more books you display to imply intelligence the less of it you are likely to have

[@ashanesubasinha8313]

David will be proven correct.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

I don't know why people think that when it got up to 9% inflation which is actually probably 18% that that would be okay we can let that slide and still have inflation coming down only to 2%. I think they need to make amends and get it into straight out deflation raise the interest rate to eight then slowly draw it down

[@edchamberlain8073]

👍

[@jaykraft9523]

Rosenbergs approach: state the sky is falling for 10 years, when it does, claim credit (hoping people forget how long you've been saying)

[@donragnar8430]

If the bull market moves continue to pound Dave’s bearish ass, he’ll have to change his name to David Rosebud

[@acornsucks2111]

Many guys like that.

[@davidmandell9909]

As someone who has followed David Rosenberg for almost 30 years, you have no idea what you are talking about. He is typically early in his calls but when no one on Wall Street saw the collapse in 2001-03 coming he was one of the very few to warn what was about to happen. In 2006, he and Dick Berner of Morgan Stanley were the only two people at the research houses to warn of what was about to happen. The guy is very, very smart and as Nathan Rothschild famously said, "Fortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon."

[@user-pg9yj4be6x]

Fear sells look what its done for fat don

[@jaykraft9523]

Complete BS, he's been calling for recession since 2019. And there's a reason he's in his basement instead of with the firms he was previously with

[@lotsofthisandthat9791]

Done already tipped dude

[@acornsucks2111]

when?

[@ivailopetrov3191]

We will be waiting for Rosenberg to cry uncle if we don't enter a recession until the end of march ,as he promised six months ago. He has 10 more days... Then it's uncle time! I would recommend him to take a crash course in economy from Peter Schiff.

[@YourFoodBank]

Definitely not … we’re well past it

[@juaninamillion8321]

David your not considering how monetary dominance secondary to COVID was handed off to Fiscal Dominance……creating the same 2021 scenario….🙄

[@Voltaire805]

Imagine holding your money with Rosenberg watching the stock market make all time highs. I'd rather eat glass

[@bdek68]

Genius! The only reason the markets keep ripping is endless liquidity most of which is deficit spending propping up the market. That is ending

[@victoriadimon]

Stock will definitely crash this year

[@user-eb3pi4tv9k]

Feds bottled it under political pressure.

[@bsure4]

So the fact that we have supporting the war in Ukraine with over 300 billion just has nothing to do with inflation. Expect the 40000 homeless in LA to go to 100000; Al the best!

[@MrFargo1001]

"Brink" of an economic downturn? What do you call what we're in?

[@acornsucks2111]

It's called all time highs across the board.

[@toinengwyn3935]

@@acornsucks2111 The stock market is not the economy.

[@prolific1518]

​​@@acornsucks2111dumbass

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@friendlychat34]

Early = wrong

[@YS-ys1us]

2022: recession by end of 2022. 2023: recession second half of 2023. 2024: recession by end of 2024 2025: ……….

[@Mark-pb8kj]

we been in a recession since 2022

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

How long before you say sorry im wrong and this is just a great bull market

[@erniekeller1093]

There's no need. There's always a downturn after an upturn. The trick is to make it sound like some kind of insight that "nobody knows about" or "they are not telling you this" which is kind of funny since these guys never shut up about it. To be fair, though, how are you going to sell rocks to people unless you make everything else worse, hmm? It's a sales pitch after all.

[@Willfully_Ignorant]

I would love to see the dislike ratio on this video. I have a stark feeling that there are a LOT of thumbs down looking at how few thumbs up there are. I mean this was one of the “inflation is probably transitory” idiots after all.

[@neema5133]

Rosenberg ….

[@michelbrisebois6787]

David is always bearish and has always been bearish as long as I can remember. That doesn't he is not correct. Yield curve inversion is a very good predictor of recessions, 9.5 out of 10.

[@utkbyuca89]

HYPE INFLATION Coming. My grocery bill said so.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Has this Roddenberry ever get anything right he’s been like zero s since 2020

[@gaetancharbonneau3902]

The day this guy turns bullish, I'll sell everything...

[@davidmandell9909]

As someone who has followed David Rosenberg for almost 30 years, you have no idea what you are talking about. He is typically early in his calls but when no one on Wall Street saw the collapse in 2001-03 coming he was one of the very few to warn what was about to happen. In 2006, he and Dick Berner of Morgan Stanley were the only two people at the research houses to warn of what was about to happen. The guy is very, very smart and as Nathan Rothschild famously said, "Fortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon."

[@mehditaba6303]

He says absolutely nothing.

[@raymonddee1059]

democrats bought him

[@mmercato7174]

Haaahaaa that guy again ! 🤨🙄 He is short still ?!😮‍💨

[@hotwig68]

We had a 100 year worldwide pandemic.........so.....everyone needs to keep their girdle in order,......no one really knows how this will play out but SO FAR , the fed has done really really well.

[@bdek68]

How is that? They are flaming inflation and adding to our debt on an unsustainable trajectory with Yellen! Give me a break

[@Chuck68ify]

Going 1$trillion more in debt every 3 months...everything is cool.😊

[@johncartwright5364]

The real inflation is much higher than these clowns claim.

[@stunn3r312]

This guy is delusional. No wonder subscribers to his newsletter don't even open it up to read his nonsense.