Forecast Discussion - May 7, 2024 - Potent All-Hazards Risk Transitions East Today/Tomorrow

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Significant severe weather is expected to continue today and tomorrow across parts of the Midwest and Mid-South. For today, SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Here, a mix of clusters/line segments and semi-discrete supercells will yield an all-hazards risk, including the potential for a strong tornado or two. Tomorrow, a broader Enhanced Risk has been outlined from Kentucky/Tennessee southwestward into the ArkLaTex. Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected, posing a risk for all severe hazards. The threat for tornadoes, some strong, is greatest near the warm frontal zone draped from Missouri into Kentucky/Tennessee, while large to very large hail and damaging winds will also be a threat, particularly down into the ArkLaTex region.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:37 Discussion of today's setup
14:52 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
24:56 Wrap-up

[@OrderOfTwisted]

Thanks, Trey! I’m very glad it underperformed, as things could have been so so much worse. I was holding my breath all night. Prayers to everyone affected.

[@Hardball247]

Compared to the two previous outbreaks which weren't upgraded from their enhanced risk to moderate or even high.

[@OrderOfTwisted]

@@Hardball247 agreed! 👍🏼

[@PetiteDauphine1]

Good morning, Mr. Trey!! Considering yesterday's 5/5, I'm truly grateful that the situation wasn't any worse than what it could have been. Grace and Mercy!!! Thank you for the good work that you do, Sir.🙂

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I agree; as a resident in the High Risk, I'm glad yesterday underperformed.

[@DaraS84]

Right in the middle of this in Dayton. Sigh. I hope it underperforms here too and doesn't give us another May tornado to remember. I still remember vividly the tornado emergency we had back on Memorial Day in 2019. 🥴

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I remember that well; very interesting case. Hopefully not a repeat with these setups.

[@dillyboyq]

So grateful yesterday didn’t end up being worst case scenario… the parameters were insane and the storms were there, but none really could take advantage of the explosive powder keg they were goin thru. Thoughts are with those from Barnsdall as they were some of the unfortunate who did end up getting hit by a strong-intense tornado. Hope these next two days don’t go too crazy. Amazing analysis as always, Trey!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I agree; as a resident of the High Risk area, I am very happy it underperformed. Definitely feeling for Barnsdall and Bartlesville, though; some of the damage looks pretty intense.

[@Hardball247]

​@@ConvectiveChroniclesCompared to the other two previous outbreaks, this was pretty much better safe than sorry. The other two outbreaks should have been upgraded from enhanced to moderate or even high.

[@SupportTheArts-yo8ox]

What would "worst case scenario" be, in this case?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@SupportTheArts-yo8ox Worst case scenario for Wednesday in particular would be that the morning storms move out quickly, the atmosphere destabilizes, and you get multiple discrete supercells that have the potential to produce strong tornadoes.

[@janledford3010]

@@ConvectiveChroniclesVery thankful Trey you and yours are safe. Great forecasting as always, and, I too am looking forward to your analysis of this. God bless🙄🙏🙏

[@jonathanregan4344]

I live in Wilmington, Ohio and can confirm that it is now very sunny and extremely muggy and warm. There is hardly any clouds in sky, so it might pop off here.

[@PetiteDauphine1]

Pls take care!!

[@juliamihajlovich]

Have to remember that even though yesterday’s 5 out of 5 was not as bad as expected, doesn’t mean today’s 3 out of 5 risk for today won’t be bad. Stay safe, y’all!

[@leq6992]

Well this post aged quite well. What an insane afternoon/evening of storms, and it's still ongoing.

[@danielwieten8617]

From a severe weather lover perspective it was a bummer. Just wanted to see a few impressive tornadoes in daylight, and I'm sure I'm not alone in that regard. All that hype gets me every time! Always make sure to support victims however I can regardless.

[@corycraney05]

Southern Indiana here and have been waiting on this video all morning. Thank you for this!

[@logankeethers861]

Hopefully it dodges us down here. Been following this storm since yesterday morning

[@jaleach123]

Are you in Evansville? Been there many times going back to the 1970s. Both of my parents were born there and we had a lot of family there.

[@logankeethers861]

@jaleach123 yes located about 10 miles east of Evansville. Right on the Ohio River.

[@jaleach123]

@@logankeethers861 My grandparents had a house on poles right on the river back in the 1970s. They called it The Camp and we'd spend a lot of time down there. It was very close to the bridge that goes into Kentucky. Lots of barges on that river back then.

[@EvilApple567]

Man, I can't remember the last time I've seen mid 70s dew points into MO, let alone central MO. Someone needs to have a talk with the gulf about personal space already.

[@janledford3010]

Nature can be truely amazing, and, truely unpredictable!!!! It sort of does what it wants to do, no matter what it can ‘appear’ it’s going to do!!! Some of our bigger tornado events, the models just didn’t show it! And, vice versa, as yesterday. And thank God for that visa versa!!! My area has been very blessed in that everything coming out way just split and went around this small area. Not complaining!!! Except, my little area is the only place in Tenn that didn’t get the great snows!!😠Pooie on that!! I’m praying for all those affected by the storms, and today, and tonight, it’s been many. Been a very stormy and eventful day., and night. Be safe everyone, and God bless you’all !!!🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@LeviW133]

Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on these events also I think I should of had a wind MDT in our area there's tree's snapped houses with significant damage and trees fell onto houses in going to go help someone clean up now

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, the straight-line wind threat was intense last night

[@LeviW133]

Your welcome and yeah it was really intense ​@@ConvectiveChronicles

[@Easton555]

Thank you for the video!

[@asap314]

Lol at 17:36 I’m right along that boundary in STL… it’s been a good one fellas 🤣 thank you for the update though Trey!

[@peanut4998]

I used to be one of those people that'd get upset about high risks underperforming, because in my mind, an underperforming high risk erodes people's trust in the SPC. Especially since how our previous underperformances did little to nothing, like 4/2/2017, 4/5/17, 5/18/17, 5/20/19, 3/17/21, 4/4/23, 4/2/24, and 4/15/24. Then Barnsdall happened and I no longer get upset about underperformances.

[@jessgjerstad2180]

Why it underperformed: The southerly LLJ was focused on eastern OK, far Eastern KS, Far Eastern NEB, Western and central MO, Western IA, Eastern SD, Western MN....feeding in the best unstable air into the storms. This fueled all the tornado warnings in MO, IA, NE, SD, and MN. In these areas, the strong Midlevel (500 mb flow) was diffluent from the southwest, but there was a lack of directional shear, (and instability farther north) hence the QLCS mode instead of discrete supercells. In OK, the strong mid-level flow had a much stronger western component- more perpendicular to the potential LLJ in the best instability, but across OK where storms initiated and matured, the LL flow was still quite weak. The "sweet spot" was over far Eastern/Northeastern OK right where Bartlesville was and Barnsdall were located. Had the core of the LLJ from the south been 100-200 miles farther west, the result would have been far more devastating in OK and Southern KS.

[@Tuzzz94]

Ah, I was looking for an explanation as to what happened yesterday, as I was completely baffled as to why so many of these storms yesterday didn't produce big tornadoes despite the significant tornado parameters seemingly being completely off the chart. I was especially surprised that the storms forming later in the evening in Southwestern Oklahoma didn't do anything special. Thank you for this explanation!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I’m not sure that’s 100% accurate. We got discrete supercells for quite awhile. I think there were some other thermodynamic issues at play

[@spyroaster5457]

Tuesday was interesting in that we got a tornado watch through overnight, yet the system didn't even get here until 2 hours after the watch expired. I guess they were expecting it to move quickly, but it was rather slow. Didn't even produce severe weather in my area, just a lot of rain.

[@bigmaklifts]

I’m directly in the center of the warning for tonight in ohio, fingers crossed all goes well

[@tomchidwick]

Thanks Trey!

[@lem01ne]

Thanks so much, Trey! I find your channel to be the most in depth and informative out there. Awesome stuff! Especially informative for me today as a Hoosier lol Take care!...

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words! Stay safe today and tomorrow!

[@YaBoiKev503]

I live in Memphis and I gotta say the past couple of days we've had storms pass through only for it to clear up afterwards and you can feel the mugginess in the air. Even as I type this its definitely muggy and sunny after a decent storm came through at 8AM today as it did yesterday morning. Definitely keeping an eye out for tomorrow, last thing we need is more instability added to the atmosphere if we somehow get any sort of development in the early hours of the day.

[@JudyMenzel7]

Will be interested in the review of Mondays reluctant start.👍

[@dragnflei]

I’m really looking forward to your case study of yesterday’s event when you get a chance. Fingers crossed that St Louis avoids anything too bad tomorrow. Thanks for the update!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I'm really interested to dive into yesterday's environment and why it underperformed. Still struggling to find anything of note, but a deep dive should help

[@Faith_1337]

The first round just came through NW IN, I have storm anxiety so I leave every time there is a storm and it wasn’t too bad and just stayed home. Just gentle thunder. Now we wait and hope that the clouds don’t go away for the second round

[@kristinadill5613]

Diving into this now, have been patiently waiting all morning as a Hoosier in the hatched area. Thank you for all you do trey! Edit- never good when trey takes a sounding over you and the analog boxes are full 😅

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Be safe over the next couple days! Definitely not a slam dunk setup by any means but could see some significant severe weather in your neck of the woods!

[@tylersukenaga9113]

Glad yesterday underperformed but I always worry that sounding the alarm like we did could lead to public complacency in the long run and more people get hurt when a high risk performs as expected

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That's always a concern when these big forecasts don't pan out, but folks just simply need to be prepared regardless of risk category.

[@tylersukenaga9113]

@@ConvectiveChronicles yes definitely agree. Worth the inconvenience of cancelling plans etc that could save your life or injury. Think people in Oklahoma and other areas there are definitely weather aware so I don’t worry about their preparedness

[@constance5894]

This must be an exciting time to be in the science of meteorology. The breakthroughs of radar, global collection of seemingly unlinked data and then computer analysis have put understanding weather into a different league from the not so distant past (like my childhood 😅). But this spring and its surprises show how far it needs to go. You are lucky to be in this field at this time!

[@MightyMuffins]

Lets the events cook some more. I keep seeing a lot of talk about how yesterday underperformed or the high risk never panned out.......I say...it kind of did pan out and the high risk was worth the call. The parameters were primed as hell and totally warranted it and honestly if we look at the high risk from the idea of number of tornadoes then I guess but I look at it from the fact the high risk did pan out as it verified a very violent tornado of maybe EF4 level (survey pending)....and that was more than enough to warrant it. We still saw several tornadoes ESE and E of Oklahoma on the wind surge which was quirky as that storm went off as it went into Moore. I say I was totally ok with the high and it did in the end produce tornadoes in the risk zone regardless of we didn't see the "numerous violent tornadoes"....we still got it and people took awareness of it. Today looks interesting and Wednesday is as well. We could see more tornadoes next 2 days than yesterday but at the same time usually these more widespread events usually will do that given the more wide warm sector and kinematics that more stuff and tap into than a more concentrated area like OK where you have several discrete storms vs a very widespread sector where any of then can have small spins. Even after Thursday got a new SW shortwave for the SW and S plains so we will see. Trey how did you guys do overall yesterday after the Waynoka and Helena storms?

[@mattgriffin8383]

Great video! I live in Louisville. From what I can read and from what you said, the location of that warm front is gonna matter.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Absolutely right; the warm frontal zone should foster the best chance for significant tornadoes, so where that sets up is key

[@joseph-frankbrocchus6575]

Thank you for keeping us informed / I live in Tulsa and thankfully we just had another night of heavy rain and some flash flooding / Thank you for also defending those that forecast the weather, all I have read so far today, especially in Kansas, is how it was a “bust” / they might want to talk to Barnsdall, Oklahoma about that

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; I agree!

[@joseph-frankbrocchus6575]

I had a question, what is the furthest east the dry line can move? My sister lives in Southeastern Missouri in the boothheel and she said that she has heard that the dry line sometimes can get that far? Thanks for keeping us safe and informed

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@joseph-frankbrocchus6575 There have been drylines in the Southeast before. For example, the April 27, 2011 outbreak had a dryline feature. They can really set up anywhere, but most often, they're found in the Plains.

[@Sciencetor728]

Trey love it. Just raining in southern WI

[@cameronfry]

Here in middle Tennessee, we had a surprise cluster of storm reports yesterday including a tornado near Smithville. Definitely took some of us by surprise. Trey, will you be doing a video on why yesterday's event underperformed?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes, I am planning on a breakdown video for yesterday

[@metallikat05]

Yeah, the weather wasn’t fully expected to be so bad for me here in SW Michigan (5/7), but we had 7-9 confirmed tornadoes across about 5-6 counties. The city directly to my south was hit, including the strip mall my friend worked at! There were no reported fatalities, and only minor injuries, and one woman who suffered a broken leg. I was lucky, everything was south and east of me, but not by much.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad you made it out ok

[@rogerthat7195]

Yeah the storm mode for tomorrow seems to still be extremely messy on the HRRR and even on the HRW models. Definitely dependent on those first storms.

[@charliereffettstormchasing]

CC VIDEO LETS GOOO

[@andyscherer6446]

Lots of sun and it’s heating up and getting humid in central Indiana

[@DSGB2199]

Man how did that setup yesterday not produce more than it did?? Especially that cell late that went through moore. It found a failure mode somehow

[@Gerb729]

Hopefully tomorrow won’t be that bad

[@maruccimid1410]

Amazing video!!! Also, latest HRRR is showing serious CAPE values and dew points in the 70s near the dry line in SW Missouri, what’s the moderate potential?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Looks like they upgraded but for wind/hail but not tornadoes

[@sharessehughes2978]

I'm shaking already. Right in the middle of the hatched area in a mobile home. Sounds like all of the discrete cells will be right around where I live too. We just got hit by a tornado last year. If I didn't know about Codell Kansas, I would be thinking surely it won't happen again. But...

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang, I’m sorry…definitely have somewhere sturdy you can go if it starts to get nasty. Friend’s house, community shelter, even a local restaurant or gas station.

[@sharessehughes2978]

@@ConvectiveChroniclesThanks Trey! I got my weather radio on and the car is gassed up. I'm getting out of dodge if a supercell even comes near me. I'll never be the same after watching my neighbor's trailer get ripped apart with her inside last year. Everyday I look at the hole where those trailers used to be and it haunts me.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@sharessehughes2978 Dang, that's crazy. Glad you are extra prepared. Be safe!

[@GRAV3StON3]

I live a few hours east of paducah ky , im definitely scared for tomorrow my weather anxiety is goin wild

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Good news is that storm mode looks to be on the messier side

[@lordlobster3793]

Like the last multi-day event (it it was the previous or the one before that), could today over perform? You’ve got your hands full with all the severe weather.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Overperformance is always a possibility, so regardless of risk category, folks should be prepared

[@zenyeti3076]

Hi Trey- here in Extreme NW Arkansas we love your channel- but, let’s hope you get the morning off & don’t have to report on us! We are very grateful to have dodged the worst of it last night,& are sorry for our neighbours to the west & north. Appreciate your work! ☮️

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I’ll probably be back with a morning video regardless…looks like a bit of a lull after this setup thankfully!

[@JackieBaisa]

Hoping it ends up being a big ole dud. But if it's not, I hope everyone is properly prepared and stays safe!

[@StevieWonderwall]

It just started raining in south chicago suburbs, since 10 minutes ago there has been an unending rumble of thunder, pretty cool! Update: tons of wind and hail, about 1 1/4 inch hail was the largest I found, tons of branches down, and my sister's fence was blown down

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang, that’s crazy!

[@StevieWonderwall]

@@ConvectiveChronicles it was pretty cool to finally have a storm with some gusto! Usually they avoid us like the plague.

[@Brandon-jv4wp]

I keep wondering if your a professor I love your channel and trust your opinion? Id come to your class if so lol learn a lot from this channel

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I am not a professor, although I did do some teaching during my time in graduate school.

[@Stl_rocks2021]

Watching in Springfield Missouri I'm seeing if this gets any stronger there going to bring it into a moderate risk.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

We shall see

[@Stl_rocks2021]

Ky3 is saying it might but I'm taking this with a grain of salt.

[@grantaliniGD]

NE Illinois has been looking interesting on the HRRR. Do you think training hailstorms is possible up here today?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Could definitely see a large to very large hail threat for NE IL today

[@michaelespeland]

Why did yesterdays event underperform exactly? Some claim the LLLR's was to blame

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

No idea! Will be a good case study

[@michaelespeland]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Looking forward to it

[@Lesouxx]

Where do you think the warm front will stall and will central ohio get anything bad on Wednesday?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Too much uncertainty to make a final call on that, but it looks like central OH will be north of the highest risk areas

[@elitennis7973]

I'm in Indianapolis, hopefully we will have more messy storms and no discrete storms here. I have one quick question, I have a well made basement and good protection from tornados. What are the chances of being injured/killed if a tornado come over my house?Thanks for the video Trey, really appreciate it!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

As long as you have a plan that includes adequate shelter, which it sounds like you have, you have a good chance of surviving.

[@elitennis7973]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Ok got it, thank you.

[@railfanningpoints2.045]

Debris collapsing into the basement is a safety risk. Have adequate head protection. Nothing beats a qualified safe room (which you need to consult with a structural engineer) or a qualified storm shelter.

[@elitennis7973]

@@railfanningpoints2.045 Gotcha. I have a helmet ready if needed.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

​@@railfanningpoints2.045 Any adequate shelter will do, and that includes a basement, below-ground storm shelter, interior room near the center away from windows, or above-ground storm shelter. All have their pros and cons, but all will provide adequate protection from most tornadoes. You are right on the head protection.

[@aubsarg0222]

Hey why was last night pretty uneventful? Not being mean here but the USA haven’t seen a set up like this for years!! All the elements were there and yet we only got a few short lived tornados. Why? We were preparing for a Moore type tornado and we got barely anything. Can you explain why

[@aubsarg0222]

Hasnt* not haven’t

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I’ll be doing a breakdown on yesterday’s event at some point

[@hittinitsidways]

Barnsdall and Bartlesville would disagree with that statement

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The event as a whole clearly underperformed…one strong to violent tornado when numerous were forecast.

[@henmeister613]

You think they might go moderate for tomorrow?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I don’t think so given storm mode concerns

[@kayakdog121]

My question is: What did anybody learn from this as far as being able to more accurately forecast when the same conditions exist next time? I understand some WERE hit hard, but this storm was a real dud RELATIVE to how much it was hyped up.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Going to be an interesting case study

[@user-wd5qw2sr4d]

16 tornadoes in six states is underperforming? Not in my book but I lived far away from tornado country for most of my years.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

A High Risk was outlined, which means a widespread tornado outbreak with multiple long-track, strong/violent tornadoes. That did not happen.

[@Sciencetor728]

Please educate me … MI gets a PDS today and yesterday boring

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Warm front

[@Sciencetor728]

@@ConvectiveChronicles and that means ? Again I don’t have your education level

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@Sciencetor728 Enhanced low-level shear along the warm front

[@patricklaurojr7427]

Thankfully yesterday was a bust I'm sure wasn't the weather guys that's what insane about mother nature the ingredients were their what u guys seen but didn't perform even tho we got a big one in Barnstable. Their were tornados way out of the range in Tennessee it's today have watch out for that could pop up and be the big day. Do u think they jumped gun with a high risk?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

No, I think the high risk was warranted given the parameter space and expected evolution of the day.

[@patricklaurojr7427]

@ConvectiveChronicles yes like.said the ingredients were there but I'd watch today storms already firing off it days like this where ppl think cuz if yesterday they will ignore tornado warnings

[@maxlewin7807]

Wasnt there 1 death in barnes?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes, there were fatalities and significant damage in Barnsdall, OK.

[@tdaddy7063]

Damn any idea what helped Michigan turn into a lil outbreak?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Warm front magic!

[@waitdenzel]

How’s Thursday looking?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Not all that great for significant severe weather

[@railfanningpoints2.045]

Messy storm mode enjoyers

[@aubsarg0222]

And second comment sorry but can’t colleges predict tornados? I seen pecks hank how he works closely with some people that has an AI storm predicting software and when they plugged in the elements from El Reno, it created a tornado just as big and wide! So my ? Is this, why isn’t their any YT channels dedicating to using this software to predict possible scenarios on days that are warned

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

So that model Pecos Hank highlighted was not a weather prediction model. Instead, it was a model of an actual supercell storm, engineered by Leigh Orf.

[@JKCollinsWx]

First

[@michaelscott6942]

As someone who has a large wind/hail deductible, I am happy it underperformed. But, this is the second time in two weeks the SPC's PDS-watch disrupted lives in OKC, when it was mostly a false alarm. And I know there was a tornado risk the day of the Omaha outbreak, but it wasn't supposed to be the type of event that it was. Hurricane forecasting has gotten so much better in the last 10-20 years, but it doesn't seem like severe weather forecasting has made much of a jump in that same time.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Severe weather forecasting is a lot harder than hurricane forecasting. Hurricanes need warm water and low shear, and that's about it. Of course, it's more nuanced than that, and we've seen drastic improvements in hurricane track/intensity forecasts in recent years, but the equation needed for hurricanes is much simpler than tornadoes. Supercells and tornadoes are so much more difficult to forecast...it goes much deeper than the fact you need instability and low-level shear. Just a couple degrees or J/kg here or there and you discriminate between tornado outbreak and total bust. We're getting closer, but these setups are just tricky to forecast.

[@michaelscott6942]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Yes, definitely! I just wonder how material advances in accuracy will happen. It's 260+ miles between OUN and AMA. Weather balloons are launched every 6-12 hours. It's impossible to accurately measure and, subsequently forecast, the atmosphere based on these infrequently, sparsely measured conditions. These computer models and SHARpy graphs have a high degree of precision, and give the appearance of accuracy - but the latter seems like an illusion. I openly wonder whether NSSFC/SPC forecasters of a previous generations had a greater recognition (and therefore, less confidence) of these limits than the forecasters of today. I'm not saying I know the answer. I just wonder....

[@keridane9381]

💔💔🤍💙

[@mxb1337]

It was very interesting that the northern cell that passed through southern OKC/Moore was so outflow dominant in an "ideal" tornado environment. I wonder if extreme parameters are detrimental to the maturation process for storms and only a mature cell entering that environment would be able to take advantage of it while a nascent cell would fail to develop

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That's a good thought; generally in upper echelon environments like this, storms need a bit more help (interactions, etc.) to mature fully and sustain themselves. So something was slightly off; hopefully, a deep dive will help.

[@KarterMadden1006]

any possibility of tornados in memphis tennessee

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I’d keep an eye out