Stephen Kotkin: What Putin Got Wrong About Ukraine, Russia, and the West | Foreign Affairs Interview

Foreign Affairs invites you to listen to its podcast, the Foreign Affairs Interview. This episode with Stephen Kotkin was originally published on May 26, 2022.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the world has contended with the stakes of the conflict, and what the war means for Russia’s relationship with the West-and beyond. Should Russia still be considered a great power? What in Russia’s past explains the mistakes it’s making today? Will unity in the West outlast the war? What is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ultimate goal in Ukraine, and is it changing?
Stephen Kotkin is the author of seminal scholarship on Russia, the Soviet Union, and global history, including an acclaimed three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin. He is a professor at Princeton University and a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. Kotkin brings formidable historical depth and a sharp sense of the current geopolitical landscape to these questions about Russia, Putin’s leadership, and Ukraine’s future.
We discuss why Russia’s capabilities too often fall short of its ambitions, why Putin underestimated the West (and why the West tends to underestimate itself), what China is learning from Russia’s experience, and what could happen next in Ukraine.
SOURCES FOR THIS EPISODE
“The Cold War Never Ended” by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/review...
“Russia's Perpetual Geopolitics” by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...
“The Fantasy of the Free World” by Shivshankar Menon
www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...
Read More by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/author...

[@kenkearns4616]

Excellent interview, this guy makes more sense of geopolitical issues than anyone else I have listened to.

[@markb8468]

Agreed

[@gmw3083]

It takes two to tango. Kotkin ignores American hegemony and nato aggression. Putin attempted to join nato, but being that nato can't exist without its main enemy, that couldn't happen. Maybe try Jeffrey Sachs.

[@michaeldelisieux5252]

Agree!

[@martinarijsbergen4270]

Stephen Kotkin has this beautiful ability to clearly outline the big picture and always makes me feel better and I am very happy we have great thinkers still amongst us!

[@tabithan2978]

And they say liberal arts majors like historians are no longer needed. This guy is proof they are essential. This guy makes more sense than any computer programmer I've heard.

[@briancase6180]

If Stephen Kotkin is talking, I'm listening. Thanks for bringing more of his wisdom, knowledge, and insight to us. He should be more widely known, and citizens of the US should be required to hear his analysis of history and international affairs. He can hold nearly anyone's interest!

[@gnazlis]

When I see a Kotkin interview, I "thumbs up" before I even start listening... I've never regretted my decision!

[@dixienormous8444]

I never miss a word this guy says. Thank you for the great conversation!

[@markb8468]

Same!

[@thecount1001]

i'm surprised more people don't pay attention or even know who he is. his intelligence combined with an uncommonly listenable voice and delivery make him my preferred 'go to', intellectual.

[@paulh2468]

Fantastic! If Dr. Kotkin had his own weekly show, I'd be the first to subscribe. Despite being almost a year old, this interview was still highly educational.

[@Alex-hu5eg]

As a hungarian (who knows a thing or two about russia) I've been constanty blown away by the amount of insights he provides.

[@KellyEngstrom]

Dr. Kotkin, what a gift you are during this turbulent time. Your 'intellectual humility' makes your voice the most trustworthy one in the podcast era we live in right now.

[@Aussie-Mocha]

After every single interview with Kotkin , I have to sit back, take 5mns to evaluate everything he says. I usually end up laughing. It’s a laughter coming from a place of being overwhelmed at how comprehensively genius this man is. Mearshiemer was the 1st person I heard talking about Russia vers west issue but when I came across Kotkin , Mearshiemer suddenly sounded like a propaganda mouthpiece. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 US must show some teeth right at the top. Because so far we haven’t yet convinced Putin/Russia that they can’t achieve anything.

[@mychalharris]

Stephen Kotkin is simply the master of interleaving historical fact with current ground truth to derive reason based analysis. That, coupled with rhythmic storey-telling creates a great listening experience.

[@mikecamacho1934]

Stephen doesn't only parrot history, he breaks down the psychology, sociology and philosophy of that history. An unbelievable resource.

[@metmeningen463]

Love to listen to this calm, wise, amiable and fair professor dr.Kotkin! Thank you!

[@albertwalker8994]

So refreshing to hear reality effectively and clearly articulated.

[@michaelk5825]

Gotta love this guy. Steven Kotkin is believable and extremely well informed. I just hope Western leaders listen to him.

[@michaelroark2019]

One of the most impressive characteristics of Stephen Kotkin is his intellectual humility. Few other scholars speak about this virtue. It is refreshing.

[@thecount1001]

unlike John Mearsheimer, his polar opposite in style and perspective.

[@muchamad613]

As a Belarusian, I find this 83% accurate. The rest of 17% I blame on my own experience, which forms my own lense. So, it is very accurate.

[@considerthis7712]

Kotkin as a historian is a joy, insightful and display of clarity amongst a large proportion of mass media ignorance, bias, prejudice, fear mongering and self interest.

[@stianmathisen4284]

Stephen Kotkin`s contributions is existential level important combining great history lessons with great analytic and philosophic skill!!

[@guardiangypsy2682]

Great interview... I wish everyone would take time to listen to Stephen, full of common sense ❤

[@elspeth8476]

Stephen Kotkin is beyond insightful. He should be a household name.

[@rafaromanozademelmac6095]

As a Pole, I am always surprised and shocked how much the West does not understand this current war and its context. But this is the absolutely brilliant interview. One of the few experts who speak sense.

[@marycampbell3431]

This interview is from May 2022. I'd like to hear Prof. Kotkin's view on the situation eleven months later.

[@robleahy5759]

He has given five or more interviews available on KZbin since this date. Enjoy his addendum.

[@bpurkapi]

Kotkin is a great historian and worth listening to.

[@charlesandrews2360]

Thank you for bringing this to us. Always good to get Stephen's current thoughts. He is hands-down the most informed expert on this subject that I've ever seen or read

[@OziBlokeTimG]

Stephen Legend Kotkin ❤

[@niklashansen8594]

It's scary how perfectly fluent and yet melodic this man speaks! Sounds almost as if he would read from a paper

[@tonyholmes962]

Blows all those private school boys away every time.

[@MB-to5gl]

The moment I see written or spoken word by Mr. kotkin I stop, read or listen intently. Just love Mr. kotkin.

[@johnoconnor4572]

Brilliant, just bloody brilliant. The man is a genius, proves that history is, and always will be, essential and must never be ignored!!!!!!

[@craigshagin5506]

Excellent presentation. Events are their own force and all we can do is adhere to what we believe is right. This works in favor of one side 100% of the time. It might even be the good side. However , doing nothing because you are not assured of an outcome guarantees that you will amount to nothing.

[@cdmcmxcvi1249]

Professor Kotkin is a national treasure.

[@marionkapp49]

What a privilege to listen to this masterful interview and be able to benefit from Mr Kotkin's expert explanations and background history so that we can have an understanding of this most complex horror that is the invasion of Ukraine. Most of us in urban far flung Western countries grapple with the rationale and motives of an aggressive, brutal Russia that's hell bent on wiping out Ukraine by pounding civilian apartment blocks, hospitals, schools etc. Thank you for your presentation, your humbleness and your professionalism. You have enlightened me not only regarding the Russian perspective, but the wonderful spirit of our Western world. You are right, we have almost become accepting that our Western world was doomed because we had become weak and self indulgent, when despite the shortcomings, greed and mistakes, we are far from being irrelevant and in fact are mightier than any of us imagined.

[@GenXstacker]

Kotkin is largely correct, but I think he slightly overestimates the dominant position of the West. The fact is that we have saddled ourselves with unsustainable levels of debt. Since we froze Russia's bank reserves, foreign central banks have switched from buying Treasurys to loading up on gold. Russia is a major gold producer and commodity powerhouse. Commodities are a hedge against inflation. The US economy is gradually becoming a smaller percentage of the total world economy. So while the US remains world hegemon, we are definitely moving into a multipolar world. As Kotkin said, it is important to remain humble and avoid overconfidence.

[@volkodavav]

Always inspired by Stephen Kotkin's honesty and deep understanding of complex geopolitical issues, and this interview on the war in Ukraine was no exception. His insights shed light on the root causes of the conflict and the challenges facing Ukraine, as well as the broader implications for regional and global security. I appreciate his nuanced analysis and would love to see more of his expert commentary on youtube and other platforms. Thank you, Stephen Kotkin, for sharing your wisdom and expertise!

[@johnstewartrichards5922]

“Prediction is difficult- particularly when it involves the future.” - Mark Twain

[@chrishooge3442]

I found Kotkin's assessment of Putin very illuminating. It explains why he's not only out of his element but also head of a state that is being stripped down to the foundation by oligarchs and courtiers.

[@Conn30Mtenor]

Men and women like Professor Kotkin remind us that academics are still highly relevant.

[@RP-gx5wv]

Excellent interview and Kotkin always talks on topics in a balanced sense. Well done.

[@wiv2631]

The clarity and adroitness of Kotkin's mind never ceases to amaze me.

[@lostkey1]

Spot on.

[@yellowbug5113]

This man is so incredibly interesting. I need to hear more of what he has to say.

[@paulmakinson1965]

I totally agree with this gentleman. I just don't think president Macron gets it.

[@dueldab2117]

Used to read your magazine back in my 20’s. So excited to see you have a KZbin channel! Subbed automatically.

[@foreignaffairs]

Thank you for coming back.

[@j.d.snyder4466]

Not just brilliant, but profound and insightful, based on a thorough understanding of the historical evidence.

[@jjforcebreaker]

Hell yes Stephen Kotkin!

[@PaulHirsh]

Thank you for mentioning Tibet. We always seem to hear about the genocide of the Uyghurs as if the same crime hasn't happened in Tibet and Inner Mongolia, where quite apart from the suppression of religion, language and culture, ecologically sustainable nomadic ways of life, agricultural practices that have taken centuries to evolve are being destroyed by the Chinese invader.

[@paulburkholder9690]

I so want to hear Dr. Kotkin lecture in person. He is so reasonable, articulate and humble and of course brilliant.

[@CatalystD9]

Another Clear Concise exploration of Geopolitics for the People .. Thank You 🙏

[@tylerrichards6456]

Stephen Kotkin is just amazing

[@ridethecurve55]

Anything Stephen Kotkin and I'm There. He's the sharpest, most insightful person on Russian geopolitics. Thank you for this updated perspective, Dr. Kotkin!

[@2Oldcoots]

WOW!! Thank You Sirs for so much insight and information!!!

[@iandeeming2654]

This interview was fantastic thank you. I'll be looking for more from Stephen Kotkin.

[@dabbyj509]

Thanks Stephen for us for the update much appreciated 👍

[@diedertspijkerboer]

As far as I'm concerned, I think that Russia's prescribed economic shock therapy based on the then popular neoliberal dogma's in the 1990s created enormous hardship in Russia and turned Russians away from a western style of running a country both politically and economically.

[@robertciesluk7207]

It was exellent lecture.... Thanks a lot. Greetings from Warsaw 🇵🇱

[@thusspokezarathustra]

Absolutely brilliant situational overview, executed with flawless insight only a scholar such as Stephen Kotkin could muster.

[@clairebaum]

A brilliant lecture !Thank you for this

[@frankshifreen]

Great analysis-deep understanding

[@frederikbjerre427]

Wow, what an insight. One thing Putin never foresaw was the public outrage in the western world, people going to the streets calling for action, from the very beginning and thus putting pressure on the politicians to act. While politicians rather would warn about the price for cutting of gas from Russia, people saw a new Munich 38 and rejected it firmly. Now we have to stand by Ukraine til the very end and rightly so. Slava Ukrainini.

[@Blanka1100]

Some people saw it coming long time ago. Russia's neighbours in the first place. They have been warning for years.

[@Giorg189]

How dare you make such good interviews that I see a static picture for 40 minutes and cannot get away just because I want to listen to the next what the guest has to say.

[@mixisixi2367]

Excellent interview! There is a level of decadence in the west and hopefully the events in Ukraine have been a wakeup call to take a hard look at threats to the free world. There is no freedom without the work needed to sustain it.

[@junopuno7011]

He is really good, if not very very good, excellent interview.

[@en7814]

god bless stephen kotkin

[@Sirinwara]

Holy hell I have been having a subscription for the Foreign Affairs journal for 4-5 years now but I was completely unaware that they have podcasts haha It's of high quality btw Kotkin seems to be an incredibly thorough and well-read man.

[@vman505]

Thank you for putting deep perspective on this critical topic.

[@thegeneralist7527]

I admire Dr Kotkin thoughtful analysis.

[@jonathaneffemey944]

Thanks for posting.

[@marcoarteaga1010]

God bless Mr.Kotkin, thank you FA for the content…..just gained a new subscriber here

[@tobyblur]

Excellent. Please do more.

[@MultiCappie]

I think Kotkin communicates in a very good way for me to understand.

[@susanbalog8355]

excellent as always...

[@TheRamsesII]

So, Kotkin finally addresses the views from the other side with an argument that still dismisses the views from the other side.

[@malikshabazz2065]

this is great!

[@charleshouser3123]

Excellent on many levels. Thanks.

[@ChrisSmith74627]

There is only 1 Stephen Kotkin

[@W.Khairi]

Quite an insightful insight, Thank u.

[@sorbethyena3828]

more Mr. Kotkin, nice

[@Stickyman61]

Lovely. Great speaker.

[@FrankFaulkner-qf8cb]

Excellent

[@unfixablegop]

"Systems select their leaders" - excellent.

[@PaulineCook-fy5po]

Thanks, very insightful.

[@Kissypooh]

Spectacular commentary, that is as relevant today (a year after this interview was conducted) as it was a year ago.

[@peterwaikolea9049]

What a brilliant mind. So straightforward and practical knowledge. Thank you!

[@rodolfofernandez9174]

Great analysis!!!

[@peterfrankiewicz9379]

Thanks.

[@yuglesstube]

Its also true that the West got a lot wrong about Russia. They have been far more resilient than we expected.

[@DardanRamabaja]

He is great allways 🙏

[@steveclemons8191]

I’ve heard Stephen Kotkin, mentioned by others as someone who really understands Russia. I considered reading a or some of his books, but never did. I thoroughly loved this interview. I am sold on the statement that he is a man who understands more than most others that I’ve heard speak. One thing that really impressed me about him in this interview is his ability to admit that he was wrong before on some things. How often do we hear experts say that? I am interested in the truth not the “party line” which ever side of issues one might come down on. It’s his willingness to say I was wrong on x, y, or z that makes me believe that he is also more interested in the truth than just promoting his own image or agenda. That seems in my experience to be very rare. After this interview I will look more into Stephen Kotkin’s words that he has said and written in the past. He was very impressive here. (At least to me as someone who knows a LOT less than he does in this area).

[@garyeuscher4499]

Where is the third Volume Mr.Kotkin??

[@gladkal3202]

Beautiful analysis. Very well articulated. Thank u. Keep it up

[@comradem0lotov]

I found myself both agreeing and disagreeing with Mr. Kotkin. I am indebted to him for his monumental work on Stalin and the USSR, which will stand the test of time.

[@recherche4528]

“Riveting three volume biography of Stalin”? The third book on Stalin is not out yet. It doesn’t come out until February 2024.

[@nakshatraroy7442]

Dr. Kotkin is very knowledgeable and by listening to him one learns a lot.

[@yabutmaybenot.6433]

Excellent work, Steven is one of the best!

[@kwesikwansakennedy2196]

Excellent commentary, Mr Kotkin!

[@barbaraseymour3437]

I agree with all the positive comments here (and I don’t see any negative ones).

[@vijjreddy]

Philosophical arguments aside, if you see how many accords Russia violated and how many NATO violated - that gives the answer. No need to go into 19th, 18th or 10th century - which can only extend the words which have no meaning, plus you hardly have any idea of what happened in 10th century

[@leeming1317]

Stephen Kotkin was a great guest, I love his cadence

[@elishevajones6730]

Dr. Kotkin is brilliant in his understanding of communist regimes and strategy. Kudos.