India on the Rise: How High Will It Go? | Alyssa Ayres, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Ashley Tellis

India has enormous momentum as it begins 2024. Last year, its population surpassed China’s, making it the most populous country in the world. It is also forecasted to soon become the world’s third-largest economy, overtaking Japan in the next few years. Leading this incredible growth is the country’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, who is expected to win a third term in office this spring. Paired with this dynamism, however, is Modi’s assault on democracy, which some warn will ultimately hinder India’s rise.
Foreign Affairs Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan marks the launch of the March/April issue with a discussion of India’s future with Alyssa Ayres, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Ashley Tellis.
This event originally aired on March 4, 2024.
Additional Resources:
“How Biden Can Bolster India’s Democracy,” by Alyssa Ayres
www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...
“India’s Feet of Clay,” by Ramachandra Guha
www.foreignaffairs.com/india/...
“Modi Pushes India Into Revolt,” by Pratap Bhanu Mehta
www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...
“America’s Bad Bet on India,” by Ashley J. Tellis
www.foreignaffairs.com/india/...
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[@vibha9783]

Not a single person who reflects the current Indian sensibilities

[@SoniSingh-fl8cf]

The World Bank says that India has pulled 250 Million people out of poverty since Modi became PM.. just one reason why he will return as PM.

[@sourabhbhattacharya3411]

Saudi Arabia can be Islamic, Iran can be Islamic, America can be Christian, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afganistan etc etc but India cannot be Hindu, it can have minority but not majority Hindu...why??? Bigots. Proud to be a Hindu, want Hindutva and Hindu Rashtra. Hindu likes dislikes matter.

[@nealdee1755]

Yes, and European countries keep their traditions too and many have monarchies and even state religion.

[@ramasubramanianh9682]

Very apt.

[@Jambudwipvasi]

Westerners cater to one specific minority in India which is actually the second largest majority in India and I do not feel the need to write it here ofcourse.

[@zyxraoxyz]

Indians seem mostly happy with Modi. It is just the outsiders looking in -- who are not. There is a reason for it. Not many in the west like India to be prosperous and powerful -- and be able to hold up a mirror to the west. And not many former colonies have made it good. India's success lays waste the west's argument that the colonies were better off being colonized.

[@user__100]

Britain killed 4 million Indians in Bengal in 1943 by imposing a famine

[@naysayer7540]

What Pratap bhanu Mehta fails to mention due to his chequered lenses is that Modi is primarily a reformer, not so much a Hindu nationalist. But it’s his compulsion to get disparate groups having their own differing agendas to unite under one umbrella which is Hinduism and an all encompassing view of Hinduism which includes all castes. The added advantage is this also helps rally the diaspora. If Modi had a choice and Hindus were united he wouldn’t have cared to campaign and do electioneering but would’ve only concentrated on development.

[@Mukesh_Devrari]

Key points to note - 1. Bhanu mentioned the plight of helpless Palestinians and how the US supports their dehumanization. While it raises the Ukraine issues but firmly supports atrocities on Palestinians, both Americans ignored him. They continued talking as if it did not matter. What is the source of this arrogance? It comes with the actual military and economic power the United States has. 2. Unlike China, India cannot be blackmailed by referring to values. The Americans destroyed Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and Iraq while firmly supporting monarchies in the Middle East. They selectively use concepts to punish states that are not pliable and independent. Only two nations on the planet have the power to confront them, India and China. West can manipulate the rest of the world easily. 3. It is not that complex. It is very simple. India needs economic growth and jobs, and Western companies need a market. While the caucasian races are ganging up against China, how will the world grow? India offers a large pool of human beings that can provide a massive market for American companies. Through economic cooperation, the US is not doing any favors to India; it will be a mutually win-win situation for both parties. 4. India is in perfect shape. BJP must not harass Muslims unnecessarily; the rest is the nonsense by the West, which we can reject easily. They don't understand India, nor do we need their arrogance here. The caucasian brotherhood (minus Russia) is a real security threat to the progress of Asia and Africa in the long run. 4. Common sense, yes, India will support the containment of China by the US led West due to our border disputes. We would like see weaker China, so that India can protect itself.

[@stupidgenius-zk7ps]

Your discussions are so one sided and negative. What wrong with India establishing itself as a civilizational democracy? Why should it be a liberal democracy? I can argue that India’s civilizational democracy would liberate many countries of the global south.

[@vijay-1]

Why not admit that bjp has delivered electricity roads etc and better law and order. People have not been bluffed by Modi but are intelligent to see through peeved intellectuals

[@user__100]

$45 Trillion was taken from India by Britain over 200 years of rule

[@N_Patil80]

Pratap, I’d like to see your videos which are older than 10 yrs and would like to see what you said about India, Congress and Indian government. You can fool these Americans and west not Indians. In short keep your BS unspoken. No takers in India.

[@rakadus]

There is an old Tamil saying which runs something like this "cows bred and brought up in a village which cannot be sold in the local village fair will find takers in fairs held in outside villages". Means exactly what you articulated.

[@joshua_ch]

I thought his criticisms were more measured in this interview than some of the other talks of his. In a way, it is the job of an intellectual to observe and critique societal trends, governments actions etc. He will get somethings right and somethings wrong, no one has monopoly on wisdom.

[@jameslawrence5828]

There is no question that Congress has its failures. But let’s no pretend the BJP is the magical savior. Hindutva is dangerous movement. We should end such promotion.

[@user-th2sn3et1z]

Agree.Pratap is playing the role of useful idiot here while venting his personal grievences( read political party affiliation). An overall misrepresentation of Indian positions on many fronts: territorial soverignity of India was breached by Pakistan and China - not a bleap from the rest of the world including these moral police screeching now, some parts still under occupation. Constant attempts of anti nationals and criminal factions wanting to conteol the weak governments and hence benefit enormously dont have footing now which is the biggest reason for this opposition outrage( formeely in power and control of corruption regime). Viters are not dumb. Stop talkin about common man as to stupid to see through and say enough is enough. Democracies are based on the voters needs being met. Period. Go and cry who dont like democracies and cant afford one

[@RakeshSingh-fw5ri]

This first gentlemen is living in India or not? This is very much unaware of the Indian situation sorry the old frustrated man.

[@guydreamr]

Greetings to the great country and civilization of India. Best regards, from the USA

[@Pratiksha_singhhh]

Miss representation of Indian internal affairs, i understand what's going on ,some powers really want weak india or for example - India to work as satellite state but we nationalist Indian fully aware of CIA(USA) intentions, and china, and some others too, so we know we need a very strong government , so that narendra modi is the one.

[@nesterem]

US is a benficiary of brightest of minds going from india there and helping their economy....depriving india of the much required talent ....you should be thankful because of this immigration

[@ak-rx1ui]

US is indeed the best😅 teacher of 'Territorial sovereignty' to the rest of the world. Look at your own blood soaked past: Mexico, Cuba, Philippines, Hawai, Colombia, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Panama. The CIA regime changes in the southern hemisphere (Iran, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thailand). The endless wars in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Afganistan and now Ukraine. If India had been a US 'ally' this past 70 years, it would have ended up just another sorry Pakistan today. Ashley Tellis has to earn his bread (all videshi Indians must work hard for it). For the others, have some shame, people!

[@sudhanshusrivastava1969]

Pratap thinks hindus should not have any rights to ask what is rights of hindus via legal course.

[@christieaf08]

India and the US. The US needs India more than India needs the US. India has lived without the US and can continue so without their hegemony over India. India is proud to be a working top-notch, biggest democracy, in the world today. So, what are we debating about the India-US relationship?.

[@pankajsinha385]

Pratap himself is in the US but talks about the future of India with an authority which can only be called delussion. The forum is ofcourse viewed by people who do business and invest and he knows how a bad discourse might affect India's opportunities yet he goes against India enough though the manufacturing jobs will actually help alleviate all the problems.

[@ramacvr12]

US has repeatedly shown double standard with India Pakistan relations. Most Indians have a dim view of the US when US keeps supplying weapons to Pakistan.

[@kirankedlaya3180]

With all due respect to the host and participants, the discussion seems to be happening in a bubble or an echo chamber. If you really wanted to include an Indian or domestic perspective on the Indian government and the populace, you should have included a decolonized person who is in touch with the ground reality and speaks to that perspective, and that would have brought out what is actually different this time, rather than all three guests providing a consensus chimera based on outdated western supremacist or western universalist notions. For example, as the Indian foreign minister said, the western nations did not stand for the territorial integrity principle or values when Indian boundaries are still being occupied, or when they supported and spoke for Pakistan, even when they sponsored terrorism and genocide within India. The lady even tried to blame the Indian government for the Delhi riots, the details of which are very clearly Anti Indic and Anti Hindu and was also timed to rouse these very reactions during the high profile visit. Apart from a few relevant points made by the other guests, the primary purpose of this discussion seems to be to bob heads in the affirmative swing by the host and perhaps like minded western narrative subscribers.

[@rhitamgoswami9127]

I think what you missed is the fact that India prevented the rise of further Right wing parties in Europe by keeping gas prices low. And EU has been happy to buy the same oil after it had gone through a bit of India-washing. We are one of the largest consumers of energy and if we tapped into the same pool political reactions in EU would have been quite different. India’s policy took the ammunition away from RW parties in EU. I know there will be no admission on this but privately they must be thanking Modi for being hyper-pragmatic

[@Cerebral.786]

India does not want to make an enemy of a long standing friend like Russia despite being against invasion of sovereign territory precisely because they have two enemies on its border: China and Pakistan. The US has supported Pakistan historically and do not trust the ability of the US to come to their aid if there is an aggression from China and/or Pakistan. Plus India is buying oil from Russia but also EU countries are buying this oil from India indirectly! Real politic and strategic goals are driving its foreign policy just as US has done time and again.

[@vikasm4449]

Astute on Foreign Policy, Dull, lazy and repetitive on Domestic affairs of India. India has problems but PBM is too prejudiced to articulate them accurately.

[@rajeshm5087]

Surprising clarity and equity in all the speakers thoughts which were not too ideologically inclined. I will controversially add that Western issues like human rights, violence against women etc have always been used as tools of foreign policy by Western governments but concurrently have been used by organizations to extort money from victim governments. China pays them handsomly so regardless of the horrible situation there, the criticisms are muted. Ayega to Modi hi. Abki baar 400 paar 🙏👍

[@veteranas5564]

Do these guys have the remotest idea of the wisdom that resides in the people who live in the villages of India? These are products of Western cultures who have always taken pride in ridiculing Indic civilisation. They view the rise of Hindu pride as something as bad as the rise of the Third Reich. Can Hindu nationalism be bad for the world? HOW? Will Indians ever eye any territory which is not theirs? Or will they even remotely think of getting Pakistan and Bangladesh (and thus the Muslims living in it) back in their fold? These are the guys who will loudly cheer if and when Rahul becomes the PM of India. Because then they will get prominent appointments in the government.

[@singhsandhu6475]

so hindu nationalism is good for the country ?? hindu nationalism may not be bad for the world- it will be bad for India . then y not muslim nationalism or Sikh nationalism or any other religious nationalism? Y a "HIndu rashtra" nonsense is even tolerable in a multi cultural "secular democratic republic" ? y r such hate mongers in parliament representing the bJP ? I am no congress supporter but if you believe in freedom "for all", in a democracy " for all" then any religious group or its so called representatives should not be allowed to damage the country as the BJP / RSS machine has done so. Most people- regardless of religion that they are born in - want to live peacefully and see their economic and personal well being for their families and society at large. But there are ideologies - as defined by the RSS- which has always since its inception only pushed a sectarian agenda- they are no better than the Muslim league or any other religious and partisan thought process. IF u r a true patriot - if u believe in patriotism ( which is different from nationalism) u should take off the blind fold of religion from your sense of identity . instead try to be a human being first and then a patriot for the country, but I know its impossible for anyone who is already indoctrinated.

[@gokul1255]

Something missed in this discussion is the state of democracy and nature of democratic values within each of the societies as whole. While US fails to address local issues within (which Trump effectively does), democrats are busy playing China catch-up with zero focus on shared prosperity with self-reliance for individuals and not handouts. While if you look at the changes in India, beginning from village to national level elections, BJP as a party is increasing democratic competition at each level while some other regionally strong parties catch-up to BJP's election chest. So this is ensuring a next generation of new leaders (replacing existing non-legislative power structures) to be created locally at each of those levels, which is clearly missing in case of United States.

[@dodiraj1]

India's has cracked down on NGOs which have not followed Indian Laws. Democracy is in danger is a convenient hook through which the NGOs and their supporters like Mehta become scaremongers. This is so one sided a discussion thst it is mind-boggling.

[@joshua_ch]

Interesting but too moralistic, the discussion seemed untethered to any realities of geography, geopolitics or capacity. It is true that India isn't quite as strong or relevant as its leaders like to project, and frankly unlikely to get there in next decade. But i also think US foreign policy experts are stuck in the 90s where they were the sole super power. If you look at a map you would see that India has two adversarial nuclear powered neighbors that are allied against it in Pakistan and China. If it takes an adversarial stance to Russia, it will also have the Russia/Iran/NK alliance and all their non-state actors also placed against it. While this would be a clear disaster for India, i think US foreign policy experts don't seem to get how big a problem it will be for the US , the gulf states and Israel in the middle east.

[@ankan1627]

A wise Indian diplomat said this sometime during the 2000s "The best foreign policy tool India has is a 8% economic growth rate". It still remains true. Mr Pratap Bhanu Metha said the same thing at the end of this program. Smart people seem to think alike :)

[@Jambudwipvasi]

Hippocrats talking of India being opportunistic 😂😂. India's growth is unbearable for these westerners.

[@delta5297]

Why is India "unwilling to take sides" with America with regard to Ukraine, but perfectly fine with doing so with regard to countering China? If anything, if India had condemned Russia and led other countries of the global South to do the same, that probably would've deterred Putin from continuing his war. That doesn't mean India is a pawn of the West, in fact it would demonstrate that the voices of peole in the global South in fact do carry weight. India could then use that increased influence to demnd tht the West act on climate change, rein in Israel, etc. That would be good for the entire world.

[@anuragrt]

India doesn't have a north-south economic divide. This is a fantasy emerging from european indology. Side note: If at all India has an east-west economic divide. But that doesn't lend itself to any exploitation due to opposing trends.

[@rogerparkhurst5796]

I think if the U.S. could supplements or replaces its dependency on China with India would work to weaken China’s economic strength.

[@SitaYashoda]

Shocking to hear Pratap Bhanu and Ashley Tellis' anti India discourse.

[@qingzhou9983]

Great discussion. But I disagree with the point that India exaggerated its influence on preventing Russia to 100% alliance with China. In fact Russia also does not want to be totally in debt to China. It also want India to balance China. So India's influence here is not as strong as China, but critically important as an escaping valve.

[@jitendivgi2761]

Kudos to Ashley for his perceptive and penetrating observations on India's foreign policy outlook. He grasps the nuances quite nicely.

[@d.govindarajarajan3639]

One context which is missing by those present in Ukraine Question is Ukraine as a military supplier to Pakistan. Pakistan is a sworn enemy of India and Ukraine aligning with it will definitely be taken into calculation.

[@windsong3wong828]

Warren Buffet said that the stock market is a beauty contest in the short term and a weighing contest in the long term. India is the beauty queen at the moment. If it’s economic performance do not deliver and profits do not shoot up ….the stock mart will flatline. In order for profits to go up ….the number of competitors shouldn’t run up and the profit margins must go up. It’s a heavy burden on the consumers as well. China chose to open up competition so it’s tech giant share prices fell…..

[@AmitSheth]

Mr. Tellis, Is America a liberal state? Did you speak against American exceptionalism? Is Israel a liberal state?

[@sdasgupta1950]

The problem with these kinds of analyses is that they are based on the notion that India is not mature enough to make their choices based on some fundamental worldviews and its own strategic position in the world. India has to chart its own course and in a self assured, confident way - why is that so unnatural.

[@dodiraj1]

You collect 3 Modi haters/critics. The difference is only in the degree of hate fir Modi/Hindus/India. Not one person on your panel who represents the current sensibilities of India

[@c.s.venkatesh9234]

Interesting discussion- thanks! I do think that there is cause for cautious optimism and by improving its own lot this has the potential to pull more people to better living standards. This should ultimately be our goal and the investments in actual development that have reached many is something that I feel was missed in the views articulated. If the government delivers on tangible achievements for all sections without discrimination, then it’s methods will be by and large accepted and if it doesn’t than it deserves all the criticism

[@user-er8yt9jk5q]

US analysts seems more objective (may not be entirely correct) in their assessment of India than the Indian expert. Views of Indian expert is outdated & colored by his political & ideological bias

[@mathcipher7961]

I expect such highly recognized channel like foreign affairs to have a show where participants give honest opinions and answers… but it was quite evident that Partap Mehta skilfully averted and diverted the important questions like stance on israel-palestine conflict, oppression of minorities in Kashmir and elsewhere in india, Citizen Amendment Act and restrictions on NGOs etc

[@doswatch]

Wow, the amount of cynicism Pratap Mehta shows about his own country is unbelievable. Ofcourse, one needs to be pragmatic and critique people, country and other areas of governance, but to always be negative about everything India is absolute cynicism and an echo chamber..

[@samnote2459]

The important phrase "post-colonial era" is really what signifies Modi's India, arguably. Nice to see the great conversation. Bhanu Pratap's sacking from Ashoka University seems to have done him a lot of good. Good luck to him...

[@SoniSingh-fl8cf]

Modi brought India from the 11th largest economy to the 5th Largest Economy in the world and also the fastest growing, there has been tremendous progress under Modi.

[@ukumar2604]

Thank you. Very rational, and rounded discussion, without histrionics.

[@karolbagh3793]

Good to see Alyssa

[@vatsalaprsoni808]

Typical western lense & perspective! All have failed to talk about what an ordinary citizen needs and wants, and what must be delivered in order to win an election.. Most of the participants have a one sided view of India reflecting on their thought process.

[@animalspirit77]

great discussion

[@talesofcanterbury42]

I think it’s interesting that 20k troops have been moved to Himal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. India/Bharat is a good friend to the West, however I hope India/Bharat chooses its friends wisely if it wants allies. It may legitimately not.

[@anujsethi7845]

Thanks for inviting Mr Pratap Singh

[@SPS_SM]

Very well analysed. Overall direction of India as a society and the indian govt is not good right now.

[@SeanPan-it3jm]

Yes, but way behind China for a long ling time if not forever

[@SoniSingh-fl8cf]

Yes, but slowly but surely catching up.

[@umeshshahane]

Let's talk about the principle of territorial integrity? Do Western countries respect and acknowledge the territorial integrity of India, and if the answer is yes then accept the official maps of India. Will you??