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[@heeby123]

19:00 The orange manual roll on blue was insane dice!

[@WCARomans777]

He lost 2 troops vs 16 lmao

[@abrahamklafter9083]

The fact that cap rolls can go positive is mind boggling to me. It should always be at least neutral or worse imo.

[@FreePete]

Oh it's a big problem!

[@ariel-y-e-m]

I mean what is the actual probability and how often does it happen?

[@abrahamklafter9083]

@@ariel-y-e-m i don't know the actual probability but it's often enough that caps are broken and they need to fix it

[@risk_live]

@@abrahamklafter9083💯

[@tommie-leefoster8695]

Asked ai and it stated 50.46% win to the defender

[@TreeCamper]

That chilling effect when purple went positive on the cap roll.

[@WildVikingMarauder]

I would’ve fortified 2-3 troops from the Africa cap back to Balkans to make it less tempting for Blue. I think Pete made a mistake there. Orange wasn’t a threat in the south to take it.

[@TreeCamper]

@@WildVikingMarauder I was biting my tongue, but I thought so too.

[@ariel-y-e-m]

​@@WildVikingMarauder I was thinking the same thing. Purple already threatened the cap and the likelihood of Purple being able to roll the top cap was greater than the likelihood of Orange rolling the bottom cap. But stuff happens

[@dariuszhorvath-krol8540]

8:16 😂😂😂 Best laugh ever Lasted for arguably 44 secs

[@Bra-a-ains]

Quote of the day, "It sucks to suck."

[@jamesstevenson3116]

I liked splitaly 😂

[@skymichaelwood8770]

In the beginning, when you took that first additional cap, then laughed like an evil pirate that just found a billion pounds of gold... and the next turn for blue, he took yours... I was imagining the blue player doing the same laugh, from his bedroom at his mom's house in Iowa 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

[@4louisMC]

8:17 Pete! I love this laugh, and want to convince you to make it a donation song whenever someone donates large amounts of subs/bits! Would love to hear that for the whole duration! Btw, great game! Those blizzards really changed the map 180*

[@4louisMC]

8:22 To be more specific, this laugh right here!

[@Kunome]

This blizzard setup made this very similar to a spaceport sigma game, whoever wins one side steamrolls the rest

[@FreePete]

Yeah man. This is the most linear I think I've seen this board become

[@-_noble_-2621]

Coolest blizzards ive seen in a long time, didn't end the way I had hoped, but still an excellent play from your position, GGs enjoyed this one!

[@madgames8227]

Purple played just like you would play, snatched your cap

[@FreePete]

Yeah possibly. I think the situation of these blizzards creates a unique circumstance. It's possible there was nothing I could do to win.

[@ghr1990]

It felt off that your original cap was so lightly defended. Moving back 3-4 units could have deterred purple.

[@FreePete]

I wonder? What if he hits it anyways and I lose both

[@demetriusjelatis4753]

Yup. Pete is a world champ but everyone can miss something. After turn one when purple checked the odds on his cap I knew he was itching to take a shot at it. We know he's getting +9 at the start of his turn. Pete snatched the second cap and left them 9 and 9, I was screaming for him to leave either 12/6 or 13/5. (I didn't sense any threat from orange/white in the orient and 5-6 would have held just fine). Yes, I think that would have deterred purple, because if he loses that roll he loses the game. 24 vs 12 is 74%, 24 vs 13 is 63%. Both risky and no guarantee of having enough left over to guard two caps. 24 vs 9 is 100% and he couldn't pass it up. Obviously we all make constant mistakes. I think the reason this stands out is it was so decisive to the outcome of the game. No big deal though. Tricky game. Can't win them all and Pete gets most of them!

[@FreePete]

putting more troops on the top cap doesn't deter purple, if he wants to hit it he hits it. The play if I'm expecting him to hit it is put all my troops on the bottom. The thing that should have deterred purple but didn't was the fact that if we fight eachother we both lose. @@demetriusjelatis4753

[@MrTomForshaw]

I don’t agree with Pete here as purple did seem to be a considered player - not sure how we assume that he would have hit it regardless of how many troops were defending it? 🤷‍♂️

[@demetriusjelatis4753]

@@MrTomForshaw Hey MrTom. Yeah, the reality is no one can predict anyone's behavior with total confidence. It's all just gut feelings and experience. My gut lead me to feel similar to you on this one. But Pete's gut told him otherwise. He is obviously a best in class player. This doesn't mean he is always right. But even when we don't fully agree we always have to respect his point of view. Games aren't about being perfect. There is no perfect. There is just an ongoing striving to be our best. Pete will never be perfect but there is no better role model in the risk community to use to learn from and model ourselves after.

[@Drapvi]

I don’t know how balanced blitz is configured for cap rolls, but I checked the true-random odds for rolling a 9 cap, and the average troop loss is only 8. So I don’t think that the purple early game roll is *that* crazy. It sucks obviously, but low number caps are a lot weaker than people think they are.

[@FreePete]

It's a lot more likely to get a good roll at smaller numbers.

[@washyleopard]

What calculator are you using, the AVERAGE troop loss attacking a cap with over 4 defenders should by definition be more than whats on the cap since they defend at an advantage. Yes lower numbers will cause larger swings but the average is the same, something like 1.7x

[@martinstuvland8620]

Haven't watched the video yet. But excuse me. Wtf even are those blizzards?! 😂 PS! 8:16 Goblin mode activated! 😂❤ PPS! Honestly. That you predicted red winning that early was kind of impressive!

[@FreePete]

A map this linear it all comes down to position

[@markkelso871]

the maniacal laughter turned into concern REAL FAST. I hate that the caps are broken because if that roll didnt work the 2nd fit of maniacal laughter would have been incredible.

[@MrAlanlaing]

So busy laughing you forgot to fortify to your capital...someone always says "make sure to have enough troops on your cap" if only I could remember who it was 🤣

[@FreePete]

Which cap was I supposed to put the troops on?

[@morganrowell1373]

The big brain strategies from capital players to leave their capitals unguarded. It's a trap!(Admiral Akbar voice)🤣

[@FreePete]

For real!

[@jfast8256]

I'm beginning to see why Europe map is loved so much. You can play progressive, but treat it like Fixed early game due to the amount of bonuses.

[@FreePete]

Yes! That's the reason. The power of the bonuses allows profitable kills to be possible in caps for much longer than usual.

[@jfast8256]

@@FreePete I like fixed, but towards the end of the game, sometimes I really wish I were in progressive to end the stalemate. I'm probably going to start playing on Europe capitals for now on rather than classic capitals.

[@maxfromojf6725]

It’s really funny watching this video, I was purple, apologies for being an ass but I got the game 2 weeks ago and learnt how to play from your videos 😂

[@FreePete]

Ggs man! I don't think you played all that badly. It made sense. It just happened to get us killed here.

[@LithmusEarth]

11:50 I mean, if I recall, Red, the only cap you don't know at this point, at the beginning of the game you saw 3 of their territories, that's it. They were very hidden to you. 20:50 Are you going to put a big stack on the left to keep yourself spread? or... is that a bad idea, considering your position on the right is not secure yet.

[@FreePete]

Winning from a middle position is harder than one of the ends I figure. Unless you can snowball it like red

[@LithmusEarth]

I hope when we ask questions of this nature it doesn't bother you too much, I think we just look for more clarification, to learn some intricacies that go unspoken. @@FreePete

[@FreePete]

If you give me simple questions with time stamps I'm happy to answer as many as I can. If you want something more in-depth the q and a thread on the discord is open to you too bro!@@LithmusEarth

[@LithmusEarth]

Stay amazing and helpful, Pete, even if I'm not following your rules you set out on twitch, the Concise, Not Verbose, Question-Directed, there was something you said not too long ago. @@FreePete

[@remcovanhartevelt588]

Spoiler block. Snape kills Dumbledore

[@Matthew10950]

God dammit, I knew I shouldn't have looked!

[@thebeardedgnome766]

Bruce willis was dead the whole time

[@CapnPink28]

@@Matthew10950😂😂

[@heeby123]

The boat sinks at the end of Titanic…

[@CapnPink28]

@@heeby123 There’s a boat in Titanic?!??🤯🤯🤯

[@ConsistentlyInconsistent]

Do they have a breakdown of wins showing world conquest vs cap run? Would be interesting to have that stat for players.

[@TheShizz011]

Great video Pete! ❤

[@GregEarl-eb5zy]

LOL at Pete breaking Rule 3 on the regular now. You couldn't foresee that 24 on 9?

[@Sushigh0st]

19:10 if I had dice where I lost 2 rolling a 16 I would like to manual roll too

[@rpmotorwerks]

Is the cap advantage active before turn 4?

[@FreePete]

The cap advantage comes from them rolling 3 dice to defend. So as long as there are at least 3 troops on a cap they defend with 3 dice.

[@ZeroG_Bandit]

St. Petersburg 1 point guard on half the map is insanity.

[@FreePete]

Yup. That cap is too good.

[@davids8345]

This was a great game!

[@Haralampije888]

Why didn’t you kill the purpure at the end and took his 4 cards??

[@marcinkuczynski9523]

From joy to 😂

[@UraniumMuncherr]

crazy blizzards man cant believe you get these games man

[@FreePete]

It's a beautiful thing

[@andrewhazlewood4569]

Mine is an evil laugh

[@remcovanhartevelt588]

10:10 27v9 is 100% I believe, losing only 7 is pretty possible, 3 good rolls 2 bad rolls

[@maxmurkslp9480]

it was 24vs9, even if its 100%, caps should not be positive rolls

[@unluckygamer692]

Keep in mind that the last 2 defender dice don't benefit from the cap advantage either. It is actually not that unlikely to get a positive roll for a cap with few troops.

[@unluckygamer692]

@@maxmurkslp9480 Happens way too often, had some guy roll a 200 cap the other day and he still went positive. Just crazy stuff.

[@lexxdammit4124]

@@unluckygamer692 do you have any offical numbers on how often this happens? Or is it just a feeling, if so you probably should consider how bad humans are with possibilitys ;)

[@unluckygamer692]

@@lexxdammit4124 I have studied psychology and statistics so trust me I know exactly how bad humans are at judging odds. That being said, the odds of getting a positive roll on a >100 cap should be very close to zero and I have seen it happen dozens of times

[@DiegoIchimaru]

first!

[@jameswinsor8870]

I'm subscribed too u on titch just too make sure your not playing when I am. Your amazing at the game. Not even interested in attempting that fight.

[@FreePete]

🙏 I appreciate that

[@ItsThatVogue]

Hero to Zero

[@tsherman393]

You put your capital next to purple. Roles reversed i think you would have lost your mind;)

[@FreePete]

Oh this board? No options. I could have neighbour capped blue and been in the same situation but in the middle instead of one of the ends. Maybe I should have capped Iceland