Рет қаралды 37
The missed presentation:
Gaza - The Day After
Debate
Possible Outcomes
• Israel loses
• Negotiates for the hostages
• Hamas remains in power to fight another day
• Israel Wins with International Support
• Arab countries send forces to administer Gaza, taking power away from Hamas
• United Emirates of Palestine
• Gaza is broken down into tribes, and the tribal leaders administer their parts of Gaza,
taking power away from Hamas
Impossible Solutions
• Two-State Solution is dead
• Oct 7 - Gaza was used as a springboard for an invasion.
• Israel left Lebanon in 2000. Israel left Gaza in 2005. Both Lebanon and Gaza are
now at war with Israel
• Perpetuates a forever-war
• Always an excuse to attack Israel
• Always an excuse to blame Israel as an oppressor and withdraw Western support
• Always some reason never to accept a peace agreement
• (both extremely oppressed and also extremely demanding to accept a peace
deal)
Impossible Solutions
• Israel remaining in or working with the UN, its agencies or its NGOs
• More UN condemnations than the rest of the world combined
• NGOs publish a paper for every 9 Palestinians who die vs 2506 combined
• The UN consists of largely authoritarian regimes
• 4th Geneva Convention (Squatting rights)
• Forever refugee status
• Caused the peace process of 2000 and 2008 to fail.
• UNRWA has been aiding and abetting Hamas
Facts About the War
• The IRCG planned, financed, trained and coordinated the current war to stop the
Abraham Accords and a united Sunni Arab/Israeli front against it
• (As of End of April) Between 24k-30k Gazans have died
• 24k Identified by Doctors, 2.5k reported by family members and 11k reported by Gazan
journalists
• 14k were Hamas, PIJ or armed Gazans - a civilian-to-combatant ratio of 1.1 to 1. Around
300 IDF troops have died from fighting in Gaza.
• Hamas extensively uses children and young adults to fill its ranks (16-19 years old)
• 16% of Gaza buildings have been destroyed in this war
• Gazan have had on average 3200 calories per day per person from aid trucks
Possible Outcomes - Israel Loses
• Israel negotiates for the remaining hostages to leave Gaza and Hamas in power.
• Sinwar has said that “he has Israel right where he wants them”
• Wants the Israeli public to pressure the government
• Huge Palestinian civilian support
• Create a large buffer zone between Israel and Gaza
• Israel will cease all trade and economic activity with Gaza, including disallowing worker visas,
but will allow foreign aid to come in (Substanial)
• Build large concrete walls to replace fences
• Begin a long process of asymmetric warfare to prevent build-up of forces or weapons
• Begin a long process of fighting with Lebanon and Iran
• Losing to Hamas will be perceived as weakness and Oct 7 as the way to destroy Israel.
Possible Outcomes - Israel Wins
• Israel wins with international support
• Egypt or other Arab countries send over forces to administrate the Gaza Strip
• Those forces make it untenable for Hamas to continue existing
• Israel will promote moderate voices in the Gaza Strip for future leadership
• Israel will control education for a deradicalisation process
• Israel will ban extremist clerics from conducting sermons
• Israel should ban the Martyrs Fund which financially incentivises terror attacks
• If successful, potential easing of border restrictions and a return of worker visas.
Possible Outcomes - UEP
• United Emirates of Palestine
• Split the Gaza Strip (and the West Bank) into 8 city-states. Each run by an Arab tribe
(Hamula)
• Arabs, with their rich tribal history, have always been a closely-knit community
bound by their loyalty to the tribe. These tribal patriarchs, with their vested interest
in the long-term well-being of their people, could play a crucial role in conflict
resolution, steering their tribes away from wars and towards peace.
• Worked successfully for the UAE
• This will include the expulsion of Palestinian Arabs who will not accept Israel’s
sovereignty and/or want to destroy Israel. Emirates can expel people as well.