Experts slugfest: 'Emilia Pérez' and Oscar predictions updates

[@estebanjavierruizcerda9526]

The difference between Emilia and how Green Book and Coda won is that none of this year's frontrunners are actually disliked like Power of the Dog and Roma were (many consider them boring and pretentious). Anora, Conclave and The Brutalist are really liked. Emilia is more likely to be divisive than them

[@chrisjrosen]

This is a great point.

[@frankchan5547]

@chrisjrosen just one opinion of course. Boring is too general- why does one person like a film that another dislikes- genre, actors, plot etc. Often the Oscar marketing campaigns and Academy preferences and politics play more of a role than public reception. Ultimately you can find an explanation for most outcomes- Oscar bait, films about Hollywood, dramas preferred over comedy, musicals or horror, playing a real person but not too realistically over fictional character, playing a less abled or character with make up or requiring physical transformation or someonewho suffers greatly, someone is overdue or is owed an Oscar, someone who has a body of work that is or isn't deserving, reluctance to give another award vs reward a newcomer, safe vs popular awards, high art vs popular, safe vs risqué or too controversial etc

[@ZlatanHu.]

The Substance is sustaining this enormous buzz since September, that's almost TWO MONTHS! I personally love it, I think it's THE movie of the year, plain and simple... it's unique, well made, well acted, it has message but it's still entertaining af and even box office numbers are surprisingly solid. If voters really recognize it, it would be a tremendous win for cinefiles everywhere 💉

[@piadox]

I'll be surprised if both Wicked and Gladiator make it into BP. The reception for Gladiator is that for a crowd pleasing dumb blockbuster, but I have a feeling it will be hurt in the academy's eyes as a less worthy successor to a previous winner.

[@chrisjrosen]

Might be right!

[@annebrunski7123]

As a non-American, I believe both the Wizard of Oz and Wicked are not hugely popular around the world. Musical enthusiasts know it and many have heard of them but have not seen them. Ariana will bring in the young though.

[@frankchan5547]

Wicked the musical has had long successful runs in Australia and it has come to New Zealand. The movie will have a ready made following in Australasia

[@haroldandmod]

I don’t see there being any push to get Margaret Qualley an Oscar nomination, the campaign is entirely centered around Demi Moore

[@chrisjrosen]

I don't disagree with this -- and Danielle, by contrast, has been EVERYWHERE this season. She's giving Danielle Brooks vibes from last year. I think I might have to put her back in and drop Qualley lol.

[@dilara3332]

Joyce, showed her weekly love to The substance in the first 5 min. she doesnt waste a second. letssee what she will come up with next week.

[@user-CatherineDodd]

Trying so hard to push the narrative. Emilia Perez is not going to win for best picture.

[@dheboraaires8859]

Could this best supporting actress race be like 2022/23 in which we had 3 different winners at the precursors (Kerry Condon - BAFTA, Angela Basset - CCA & GG and JLC - SAG)? In my mind it would be Felicity Jones - BAFTA, Ariana Grande - GG and Zoe Saldana - SAG & CCA

[@JoshFriedman786]

Felicity Jones would win the Golden Globe and BAFTA because the Globes are more like critics now. The Globes aren't gonna give Ariana Grande that award for no reason.

[@dheboraaires8859]

@@JoshFriedman786 Maybe I’m thinking about the ‘old Globes’ since Ariana would definitely be a more populist pick so she could win there. I would love to see Felicity winning too, but unfortunately she doesn’t have the same buzz from media outlets and journalists in general about her performance (and these are the Globes voters)

[@mr29]

Let's hope so. I love a close race. I currently am predicting Grande.

[@AnxiousMumblecore]

@@JoshFriedman786 Is Felicity such a critics pick though? I see quite a lot of people saying she was dreadful and the weakest point of the movie (I don't agree but it's not a rare opinion).

[@dheboraaires8859]

@@AnxiousMumblecore it’s not a rare opinion but also very far from the consensus, it’s not like she’s being panned by critics or anything (film twitter people are not critics and that’s an important distinction). Some people praised her a lot, some other liked the other performances better and well some didn’t like her or the movie. But overall the reception of her work it’s more positive than negative

[@Zeeco49]

Kinda surprised that they’re still pretty high on Gladiator for BP, a movie like that needs great audience reception and like 70+ on Metacritic and I just don’t see it, a lot of pundits are taking it out for a reason

[@riverabernathy8933]

wait now I’m convinced Ariana is winning 😭😭😭

[@Usedtobebillie]

Just imagine having Conclave at number 1 with Anora and The Brutalist existing. Also people freaking out over The Substance are forgetting about Hereditary and all the other horror films shut down by the academy.

[@mr29]

I think everyone is underestimating Erivo in Best Actress. That category is so competitive this year - there will be a lot of broken hearts come Oscar nomination morning.

[@chrisjrosen]

It's very possible -- especially if the movie explodes.

[@shadysorkin9214]

I think Ariana is a lock in at this point, but best actress is just so damn competitive this year it's hard to say. Judging from early screening reviews she seems like she could get in though.

[@mattyrse]

Here in Argentina, most people don't know Wicked (the musical) or don't care.

[@chrisjrosen]

Good to know!

[@sasha76944]

in mexico, wicked is known for some mexicans due to a spanish adaptation made there (mostly from the upper-middle class, that is like 10% of the country) But they're not like expecting a movie or desiring to watch it in the screen, like some theater kids in the states

[@stxrstrxckmxteo515]

@@sasha76944lol Danna Paola. I was at the cdmx premiere and there were a lot of wicked fans, but most people were there for Ariana

[@warrenjohns3194]

jesse eisenberg is so good in real pain. tbh better than culkin

[@MC-wc8mi]

I wish Joyce Eng would take the lead on some of these videos. Maybe she doesn't want to but - a change of pace sure would be welcome!

[@friendlypup5650]

I think Sebastian Stan gets in at sag still

[@ginniesoh]

Wicked is a US thing. They try really hard with Barbie-esque marketing but it is not the same starting point at all. Barbie is a real global brand while Wicked is not.

[@mathieugagnon7739]

About the international appeal of Wicked, I think it really isn’t a phenomenon outside the US. I am in Canada and I had never heard of it before I learned they were making a film about it. Same with the people around me. Only two coworkers know about the musical cause… they studied to become musical performers. The BO prospect outside the US won’t be because of the IP but probably because of the good reviews and hype around it. I can see the Academy members from the US getting behind Wicked but it might be too light for the international voters.

[@dayvaughnmonroe9540]

Are u fr? Cuz its literally has spawned multiple international productions

[@KaiOpaka]

It's getting performed internationally. It's been the highest grossing West End production for a long time and has been running for 18 years. It's very popular worldwide (I was gonna list the companies but it's a massive wikipedia entry), and just because you and a couple coworkers under a rock hadn't heard of it doesn't mean other people hadn't. I'd like to know what generation they are and what their musical interests are. Anyone who's heard anything about Ariana Grande knows Wicked is coming out.

[@mathieugagnon7739]

@@KaiOpaka Chill, I am not spitting on Wicked, just stating facts. You believe me or you don’t, I don’t care. I am 45. I don’t know many people who are interested in Broadway. I’m a geek, I love movies, I like fantasy and sci-fi. But pop music, no thanks. I should have said "not as big a phenomenon outside of the US". How does that sound? I think Wicked will overperform in the US and be weaker OS. It’ll be the opposite for Gladiator 2. Come back in 2 weeks and we will see.

[@imazdevane]

Selena gomez must be horrified her payola career is about to end. Despite the millions she has spent to convince media and the world she can act. Slash sing. This woman can’t act propped up by Steve Martin and Meryl Streep. I feel bad for Zoe but at least she can act and the movie with Kidman wi cover for this bad movie a French dude pretending to know Spanish made.

[@chirisici]

Emilia Perez would have been a quirky cinematic masterpiece if they handled the music better. It's just not that pleasing to the ear - and Mexican music is haunting sexy, rock and roll, or traditional, ancient. It's so many things, but for whatever reasons the filmmakers didn't really harness any of that inspiration for their song building. Personally, I think that Saldana and Gomez are a little hamstrung with the language, but they physically give really interesting performances. Karla Sofia Gascon was the standout to me. She was absolutely riveting to watch as Emilia, and her performance as Manitas was so visceral and convincing. I know many people may have a problem with the stereotypes, etc. in this movie, but I thought it was pretty spellbinding, and so risk taking that I couldn't not love it. Shame about the music though. Music is really important.

[@sasha76944]

I loved emilia perez on my second watch, after knowing what to expect Prop to the whole cast, they're fantastic

[@nelliek3172]

To answer your question, I am an international viewer and have never heard of Wicked before the movie trailers, its not a known IP in Europe at least.

[@KaiOpaka]

You might want to tell that to the European musical theater influencers. They've been talking about it. And as people have been saying if you're an Ariana Grande fan, you know about it. There are definitely plenty of those in Europe. So much anti-dicting from GD users, it's embarrassing, and it's not only going to make a lot of money, I expect Ariana at least to get a nomination.

[@melanievalcloutier2929]

@@KaiOpaka First of all, Europe is old, and they don’t listen to some baby boomers. Second of all, each European country has its own big stars. They don’t necessarily rely on the American music industry. Nothing embarrassing about anti-dicting a baby film for a major award. Many award winners are not blockbusters and they don't even make money. Your argument is pointless.

[@mr29]

Question: can Jonathan Bailey get a Supporting Actor nomination for Wicked? His Dancing Through Life number is getting great early reactions.

[@chrisjrosen]

I think he's great in the movie but I'm not sure he has enough to do.

[@shadysorkin9214]

Fiyero probably isn't a big enough role for awards contention.

[@harleyharris238]

Critics have no taste. You slandered Folie yet propped up the awful plot, acting and singing from Emilia French Perez. 🤯🤯🤯

[@andersjannoren9568]

I wouldn't say I like your shows this season. it became torture rather than enjoyment.

[@chrisjrosen]

Sorry you feel that way!

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

Don’t know what you’re talking about.

[@davi15lima]

emilia perez definitally isnt doing well at netflix

[@SleepFan771]

I think The Substance misses BP because of the Academy's horror bias and that it's simply distributed by Mubi. I bet something Oscar bait like Wicked, Blitz, & A Complete Unknown gets in over The Substance & Emilia Perez. After having seen Emilia Perez, I bet it only gets Zoe, International, and Song. It's very mediocre and getting panned reviews. Ariana Grande will take Supporting Actress for a big musical performance in a more popular musical unless they go for a drama, then Felicity Jones wins.

[@SleepFan771]

I think Best Picture could be Anora The Brutalist Conclave Dune II Wicked A Complete Unknown A Real Pain Sing Sing Gladiator II Blitz

[@berkcansevgi2714]

Mubi is a streaming service. However they decided to release the film theatrically. Mubi doesn't even need to promote it as The Substance is promoting itself very well getting European Film Awards nomination which proves The Substance has an international support. If you think Emilia Perez isn't getting in but A Complete Unknown is getting BP nomination, you need a strong double ristretto mate.

[@SleepFan771]

@@berkcansevgi2714 Emilia Perez is going to fall off by the time the Academy votes. It's just not going to be popular. Mubi couldn't get Decision to Leave or Mass besides other contenders in. The Substance still has to overcome a massive bias against horror movies and performances. It's probably not going to happen in Best Picture. But, I think it COULD get Demi Moore in Actress, Coralie in Director & Screenplay, and Makeup nominations.

[@DeebokYorSelf]

meh films like Blitz will not get in.

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

Emilia Perez is absolutely getting in. Gotham critics (panning it) have zero influence on the Academy.

[@remilacave3126]

Emilia Perez not only won Best Actress at Cannes, but also the Jury Prize

[@eternalmusic2736]

La Vaginoplastia is a great song. Had it on loop for about 30 minutes while doing spreadsheet work.

[@ZlatanHu.]

Emilia Pérez is such a unique cinematic achievement, it's really good. I think that international voters are more into such an original films than US audience.

[@JoshFriedman786]

You're wrong, but I respect your opinion. Emilia Pérez is very transphobic in the way it tells the story and it's offensive towards Mexican culture in the way it portrays the characters. Just cause it's a bold swing doesn't mean it works.

[@ktom5262]

@@JoshFriedman786 How is it offensive towards Mexican culture?

[@ZlatanHu.]

@JoshFriedman786 There are no rights or wrongs when we talk about films 😊 EP is very operatic film which obviously implies that its main concern aren't all tiniest complexities in regard to trans experience... it's about "larger than life" story with a big beating heart right in the middle, it's about humanity, about kindness, told through the unique lenses we rarely see in prestigious movies. It's so easy to be offended nowadays, isn't it 😁

[@JoshFriedman786]

@@ZlatanHu. It doesn't show anything at all about the trans experience, the movie undercuts all of that by having the title character reduced to a supporting role and faking her death in order to transition as woman into society. The a poor musical number where doctors of the reassignment surgery are singing about the character, that's not how a trans character would tell their own story. This movie is easily offensive to anyone who is trans, do some research.

[@dacrimsoncurse]

@@JoshFriedman786 how is transphobic?

[@Gorilla-Film]

The way y'all talk about The Substance fans is lowkey pretty condescending. "It's not as great as these people think it is." , "it makes people feel smart." Come on, just because you two didn't love it doesn't mean that others don't have valid reasons for loving it and thinking it is great - and not because it "makes them feel smart". Lame comments Chris.

[@JoshFriedman786]

No it's absolutely true. The Substance is very overrated the fans have no valid reasons for thinking it will get in because it's not the type of movie the Academy takes seriously. The fans need to accept that it's not going to get any nominations.

[@latissimusdomsi]

Lowkey? Have you seen them talk about film twt in their emmy episodes lmao this isn't new

[@ZlatanHu.]

lol I noticed that too, I was like WOOOW, so that's how we communicate here... it's pathetic

[@KaiOpaka]

😂 I love the hurt feelings over something so ridiculous. It's just a movie. Calm down.

[@chrisjrosen]

I don't recall saying it makes people feel smart -- I don't even know if I believe that. I think people love The Substance because it taps into something almost primal in its storytelling and message: most people are afforded the opportunity to get old, and society does not treat aging with any kind of respect or dignity. It's also the "cool" movie and I think people want to like the cool movie. I feel like this comments section has become fans of The Substance furious because we like the movie but aren't bowing down to it as a masterpiece. I have it getting in for Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best HMU, and Best Supporting Actress -- and the only category I'd consider bailing on is Supporting Actress.

[@kimberlyserrano4816]

I loved Emilia Perez ❤

[@irade2877]

6:30 yet another negative comment about The Substance from Joyce. Literally your every single show starts with The Substance and Joyce drops the negativity bomb. Very bad.

[@JoshFriedman786]

@@irade2877 Oh please, get over yourself. Joyce didn't say anything negative about it. She's just being realistic about it's chances in the awards race and why it's overrated which it is.

[@chrisjrosen]

@@JoshFriedman786 thanks!

[@AV-xe4nr]

They were talking about The Piano Lesson then all of a sudden They started to talk about The Substance.

[@JoshFriedman786]

@@chrisjrosen No problem Chris, I've got your backs. 👍

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

Get over it or cry. Really. The Substance is not that great.

[@nicholasmorre7371]

Substance bots everywhere. Frances Fisher's reign of terror knows no end

[@DeebokYorSelf]

and The Substance-hating bots like you are everywhere too. Frances Fisher' has nothing to do with the film . just move on.

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

Ha ha. True.

[@Mai-jt6us]

Fraces is budy with Lee and kate winslet catch up!

[@mudstyle5288]

Emilia Perez was horrible

[@umairuddinshaikh9433]

real but still zoe saldana was good asf in it

[@mudstyle5288]

@ yeah favourite to win

[@mohamedm3618]

No it wasnt

[@mudstyle5288]

@ yea

[@miir01]

​@@umairuddinshaikh9433 idk, I honestly wasn't that impressed by Zoe

[@DeebokYorSelf]

Guys , enough is enough. Can you stop The Substance hatred thing I am not watching you anymore.

[@ZlatanHu.]

We are all, like they said, probably The Substance bots 😂😂😂

[@chrisjrosen]

I do not understand this comment. We don't hate The Substance? I have it getting nominated all over the place. Feels like a super amount of projecting going on in these comments.

[@chrisjrosen]

@@ZlatanHu. To be fair, one of the comments last week had more than 120 upvotes, something that I've never seen before on this page. Seemed like a bot, but maybe just passionate fans of The Substance.

[@ZlatanHu.]

@chrisjrosen I think most people are harsh in comments because of your reasoning behind passion for the movie. Oh, it's a "cool movie", "it makes people feel smart", "it buzzy at the moment but that'll go away probably", "the Substance BOTS" lol, really? I mean, is it THAT hard to consider a possibility that it's a buzzy film because people really loved it? Just accept it for God sake 😁

[@chrisjrosen]

@@ZlatanHu. But, it is a "cool movie." It is "buzzy at the moment." The people who love it, like yourself, are very vocal about its success. I don't think it's negative to say it might not carry through to the Oscars. I haven't not accepted this. I feel like some of The Substance fans are not accepting even the suggestion it might not be a juggernaut. Alas.

[@Jeannine_9]

Just finishing watching Emilia Perez on Netflix and I enjoyed it. Its definitely an art house film , one of the best roles that Zoe Salanda has played but the entire cast was solid. I always love to see Edgar Ramirez , so sexy. The Substance I liked to but that last 15 minutes almost took me out for the bad, but I'm not a fan of horror.

[@melanievalcloutier2929]

if you are not a fan of horror, why did you watch it. honestly. i don't like musicals and i dont watch them

[@MeloXKoko]

looks for husband

[@friendlypup5650]

I would definitely put Emilia Perez over conclave in cinematography

[@AV-xe4nr]

Conclave is a well-acted yet a mediocre film. Nobody will remember it within a year. Edward Berger is not getting the best director.

[@dilara3332]

and it will underperform in the Oscars

[@mudstyle5288]

lol dropping Detwiler?! After the backlash last time there’s no way she’s missing

[@JoshFriedman786]

That's not how it works. Nobody cares about backlash when somone gets snubbed. It's about passion, just grow up and get used to it. If Deadwyler misses then you'll have to get over it.

[@mr29]

It's difficult to receive a Supporting nomination when your film doesn't contend in other categories.

[@mudstyle5288]

@ disagree. Lots of wins come from pictures that are not even nominated for best picture.

[@sreyangovender3404]

I'm keeping her in. She can't miss again

[@mudstyle5288]

@@JoshFriedman786 and if she gets in then you’ll have to deal with it