Goldman Sachs says EV Batteries will fall 50% and be cheaper than ICE

[@electricviking]

The best solar company in Australia just installed my new solar system. Check them out here: www.resinc.com.au/electricviking

[@dylanthomas12321]

Goldman makes huge money from oil and gas, and transportation and related industries. Not much from EVs, battery, etc. So this report is a very big admission.

[@t0dd000]

Goldman makes huge money from anything and everything.

[@Anthony-z5i]

I wouldn’t trust anything coming out of Goldman Sachs personally. Especially around EV,s lithium, batteries, etc.. They go bearish, and bullish depending on what they are trying to achieve at the time. I strongly suspect the media is the great conveyer of anything dubious that goes out to the masses to suit the current narrative in play as well, on behalf of many hedge funds and other ‘interested’ parties to either increase positive investment growth, or so a stock can be shorted. My views anyway.

[@yo2trader539]

They've been trimming the size, but Buffet has invested in BYD for a very long time. Who do you think was Buffet's favorite banker?

[@michaeldeworsop9628]

I think we got to wait till the critical level n of EV s will change the cost of petrol to electricity money will decide

[@t0dd000]

@@michaeldeworsop9628 The numbers are already in the favor of EVs. It's just the up front costs are a huge pill to swallow. That being said, the number one variety of vehicle sold in the US is a pickup. And if people can afford a pickup, they can afford an EV. (The uncomfortable truth though: most folks buy vehicles they really can't afford. EVs just make it even more painful.)

[@yoden666]

I was just comparing some prices today. Here in Mexico BYD has recently set up shop. The BYD seagul only cost 20% more than a very similar Hyundai vehicle called the i10. A real small diference. Going for the BYD electric car is a no brainer.

[@johnburns4017]

20% is a *big* difference.

[@mikefredrick191]

Is FSD any good on a BYD car?

[@markmiller8903]

Yeah if you want to die.​@@mikefredrick191

[@hansj5846]

​@@johnburns4017everything is relative. If the difference were 120% a year ago I'd say 20% is not a big difference anymore. Especially because the running cost will make up the 20% very fast

[@st-ex8506]

@@johnburns4017 Not really! It is made up in savings in 2 years, even less in Europe

[@ab3000x]

Thank you for another video. Enjoy your time with your wife and kids in California.

[@SparkySho]

❤❤

[@elmojito]

Sam, the price for EV's in Europe is being heavily influenced by the CAFE standards and the fines being imposed on internal combustion cars. Manufacturers NEED to sell more EV's to offset the fines imposed on their sale of gasoline powered cars. Under the new regulations manufacturers must pay €95 for every gram of excess CO2 multiplied by the number of cars sold. Many will opt to increase the price somewhat for their gas cars and can lower the fines by selling EV's to lower their fines. So the price reductions are not necessarily a result of lower manufacturing costs for EV's.

[@frankcoffey]

Cost parity with ICE is not just a matter of EVs getting cheaper, the cost to make ICE cars will continue to go up too.

[@bobwallace9753]

Correct. Declining ICEV sales means a loss of scaling efficiency. If you order fewer gas caps, each gas cap will cost more.

[@frankcoffey]

@@bobwallace9753 Making a car hybrid or phev also increases parts count and assembly costs.

[@tbirdbrad3210]

Agreed but eventually EV will rise too as they have less competition

[@skipondowntheroad5833]

@@tbirdbrad3210 The number of EVs being produced from each manufacturer will continue to increase. How is that less competition?

[@ronfarnsworth7074]

​@@skipondowntheroad5833Demand is increasing too.

[@chrisconklin2981]

I live in Florida USA and yes, I just dodged three hurricanes. I have had a small EV for three years and have never charged it away from home. The local Walmart just rebuild it's gas station but did not include charging, We have a new shopping center with a gas station but no chargers. In the last three years we have added no new chargers. I defend EVs on KZbin and all I get is the lack of charging.

[@removalrequest3993]

Soon my friend. Soon.

[@RobertCrickmore]

@@removalrequest3993 How, my friend. How? Walmart, big shopping centers, office buildings, large parking structures are all privately owned. If they don't want chargers, you can't force them. There must be an economic incentive and you know there's more profit in selling gas than selling kilowatts and all those parking spaces attached to chargers are very expensive. Walmart wants their parking for paying customers not for someone charging up to go to work or on a trip. I agree it will happen but not soon.

[@TheAnhsirkamar]

Florida is different. Best of luck 😢

[@serpserpserp]

Hey, at least you didn't have to go queue up for gas right before the hurricanes hit.

[@kevinW826]

How are those EVs working for you during the evaluation? And the after math where there is no power? Right, most of them went up in flames because of the salt water got into the batteries

[@frankcoffey]

I think batteries will be cheaper than that if you compare same to same. What will also happen is there will be better higher destiny batteries so not directly comparable to today’s batteries. The per kilowatt hour measurement is a fair comparison.

[@bobwallace9753]

Yep. As kWh per kilogram increases the weight of the vehicle drops for the same range. That lowers the amount of battery needed (and further lowers the weight).

[@danielcarroll3358]

@@bobwallace9753 And that is destiny. 😉

[@timothylynham107]

In Canada, I just purchased a 2024 Lightning for $60K before tax. The equivalent ICE F-150 is $58K. That's very close to price parity. My annual energy cost will drop from $3000 to $400.

[@marks42]

All the best mate, hope it all goes well for you all. AND Thanks for the great videos👍😊

[@williamkreth]

Batteries are getting cheaper. Its amazing! I just upgraded my camper with new lithiums for a very fair price

[@phvaessen]

45% of the cost of an EV is technology: battery and computer chips and sensors. All technology seems o follow the same reduction of price over time. Each doubling of cumulative production results in a percentage decrease in cost due to improvements in manufacturing efficiency, material sourcing, and technological innovations. In addition to that, look at the specs of the cybercab: no steering wheel, no pedals, no rear and side mirrors, not even a rear window. The only moving parts are the wheels, the doors, and the electric motors, all controls are wired. The car body is made up of large gigacast pieces, significantly simplifying assembly, maintenance, and repair compared to the complexity of an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.

[@bobwallace9753]

And. The Robotaxi is almost certainly designed to be manufactured with very little human labor. Optimus robots should be highly reliable and highly accurate workers who cost less than $0.25/hour.

[@metricstormtrooper]

​@bobwallace 9753 optimus robots are just a megalomaniacs fever dream, industrial robots with mains power supply, and fixed to the floor are more than adequate.

[@JanNowak-q7m]

And? This is all to make bigger profit but not to make an EV cost less.

[@phvaessen]

@@JanNowak-q7m True. Elon Musk needs to finance his projects: Dojo, Optimus, Cybercab, FSD. The prices of the cars will drop just enough to keep his market share.

[@phvaessen]

@@bobwallace9753 Yes, when Optimus will be fully autonomous ...

[@sunshinesun121]

In Malaysia TESLA in SEPT 2024 became the TOP No 1 and 2 in EV sales. Model M3 = No 1 and Tesla MY = No 2. Adoption here is accelerating with more competition . More Chinese Brands are coming into Malaysia with excellent Models across .. Sedan, SUV, MPV, Hatchback, etc. Interesting times ahead.

[@litestuffllc7249]

BEVs are the #1 Lithium user. Demand for BEVs generally stalled or fell depending where you check; rather than see the increases anticipated. Lithium production is up 23% with less demand than anticipated prices fall. Producers will have to cut production to avoid bankruptcy; several big lithium producers have gone broke. Hybrid sales have been strong and profitable but use 1/8th the Lithium. One might think BEV prices could go lower but they can't, 100% BEV makers are all losing billions and any savings can't be passed on.

[@kneekoo]

The falling demand claim is false when we look at the global data. Before anything, it's important to note that global car sales have gone up each year since 2020 (according to Statista). Then we have the sales of electric vehicles that have also grown each year in market share, and this is for purely battery electric vehicles. So not only the hybrids are actually eating into the ICE car sales, but their use of a small battery also contributes to the increasing demand for Lithium-based batteries. Tesla only makes BEV cars, and they're very profitable. BYD also makes some profit, but they have a small margin. The rest are indeed not profitable. But given the increasing market share for BEV and hybrids, as well as the drop in cost of batteries, in the coming years we will see more companies becoming profitable from BEV sales. How many will survive until then, we have no idea. But if some die, that only leaves room for the rest of the car makers to grow.

[@mix28021954]

thanks for a great video, can you advise on a ev suv that has good road clearance (dirt roads) with tow bar.

[@frankdelao4067]

Tesla’s profit margin used to be over 30%. Now it is closer to 10%.

[@GaminHasard]

Selling cars not a good business. Selling rides probably is.

[@robertmartens7839]

Volume up 400%

[@Tescam14]

The money is in software not hardware (cars)

[@hkdamo]

That 10% is still double what legacy car makers enjoy

[@litchips]

Thanks for this information, will wait a couple years to buy a new car, hopefully deflation and depreciation will stabilize by then.

[@budgetaudiophilelife-long5461]

🤗 GREAT NEWS SAM 🔋🔋🔋

[@columlynch4229]

And yet most people I know say they would walk before they'd sit in an EV. One particular diesel head says he wouldn't drive one if it was given to him.

[@stp926]

This is a win-win for consumers as long as they can somehow avoid the consequences of a massive depreciation on their purchase. It’s the same problem for leasing companies.

[@paulc6766]

Depreciation not that important. There has never been the need to keep replacing things every 2-4 years that's just a con game.

[@87tln]

Its all about the battery really. Crazy!!!

[@SparkySho]

That’s what she said……..

[@BrianBetron]

Nice job

[@simoneisgod]

Same the manufacturing cost/savings is not always past on to us consumers. Would love you to do a video on price parity its so frustrating that here in the UK the Ora Cat costs £31000 while in China its only £12000 thats a lot of fat added on the boat! Love the videos keep them coming

[@martrich1098]

Good video and good analysis Sam! Thanks for your continued hard work at this difficult time

[@stevewhitmill2037]

Excellent as always, Sam.

[@electricviking]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@kaf2303]

Leasing & operating a EV is already a lot cheaper than ice in my experience.

[@tysonfinn1470]

This would never of happened without musk. The legacy automakers would of been in agrreance with each other to not go into electric.

[@ronfarnsworth7074]

Fully agree. I have social and political differences with Musk but am thankful Tesla is an American company. We'd have nothing from legacy without Tesla.

[@johnslater7718]

Musk started, the Chineses will finish.

[@kenoliver8913]

Na, it is the Chinese who have picked up the ball and run with it now. They not only make most of the batteries, they make the best quality ones. Not that Tesla won't continue to make money to fund SpaceX - it will. Both Musk and Diess' (then CEO VW) predicted in 2020 that it is the Chinese, not themselves, who will drive the legacy makers bankrupt - especially the US and Japanese makers. That is coming true.

[@calc1657]

The Chinese EV industry, and thus the global EV industry, would have been fine without Musk. Also, Tesla would''ve been nothing without the gift of a free factory and early incentives from the state of California.

[@ScrotieHongKong]

@@calc1657GM received us$17.4b bail out in 2008… where 11.2b was written off (source Reuters)

[@davidfrankel9267]

All these new ICE cars are putting tiny engines with Turbos... Once those turbos start blowing up, EV will gain wide acceptance. My wife's new Audi ICE lease is anemic off the line.

[@tbirdbrad3210]

Great content, enjoying the channel. Have you done any episodes on electric power tools or ride on mowers? I love electric and am building an electric lawn and landscape company. Ego and greenworks commercial seem to be the leaders in quality and innovation as new companies. Do you have anything to add to the electric tools conversation?

[@paulc6766]

Stihl. Would recommend doing away with lawns, way too much trouble.

[@tbirdbrad3210]

@@paulc6766 I would disagree with broad strokes doing away. Reducing I can get on board with, front yard food forests, backyard lawns for family activities and privacy, best of both worlds. Lawns are perfectly fine environmentally provided you monitor them. Nobody needs a golf course lawn and people that xerrascape are misinformed by and large, fake grass is the single worst idea for the environment in the history of landscaping. As a university educated horticulturalist most companies are run by dropouts that have zero idea what they are doing.

[@RayJohnson1980]

good informative video sam

[@ChrisR-xs9wp]

EVs have far fewer moving parts and over time, that will translate to them being more reliable, having much less maintenance and lasting longer. The business models have to change and I've not heard that legacy automakers have figured this out yet.

[@PatternRecognition-s2p]

It could happen quicker if oil prices go up a lot, which seems likely given the current situation in the Middle East.

[@gaithercain5636]

Viking, do you have net metering on your home. God bless

[@tonystorcke]

I think EV battery prices will equal those of internal combustion engines.

[@2008israelramos]

Cybertruck needs to be 500+ mile range at the current price they're selling it, so that should happen when batteries drop 50%. And they should throw in free FSD for all their premium cars S, X, and Cybertruck if they really want to increase sales.

[@robertwhite3503]

Yet, isn't the CT the best selling truck model in the USA even though they are selling only the most expensive model? I assume the cheaper models will sell more and battery prices will continue to fall. Tesla continues to make money to invest in FSD which will eventually not need driver interventions. Not sure why they'd start giving things away, but their plan from 17 years ago was to create mass adoption for EV technology, so you might be right.

[@killedbycoconuts]

I wish you had time to come to Orlando and see Disneyworld. All of Disneyland in California fits inside the parking lot of animal Kingdom.. just for perspective

[@SHOE53]

The cost of building a ice and a ev is getting wider by the year in the future only rich people could own a ice, that how cheap these battery will be.

[@Wallaby99b]

It’s not just battery price decline why Tesla is cheaper. Tesla are always looking to remove weight of the vehicle. Also they are constantly looking to improve the car. Where old OEMs do changes in 4 years, Tesla can implement improvements in hours

[@waynejanik7046]

GO SAM!

[@chopinmack5418]

EV battery price dropped around 80% compared to a few years ago ! And will drop by another 50% based on current pricing ! This is why some of the EV battery producers in the West ( as well as in China ) went bankrupt in the last 2 - 3 years ......

[@Snerdles]

The Kia Niro in the US is 27k for the hybrid, and 40k for the EV. When is the Niro EV going to be 25k so it would be worth buying?

[@patasmundson2997]

Will it be possible to rebuild a degraded traction battery with new cheaper higher density packs?

[@DileepaRanawake]

Inflation going up shouldn’t be included in price reductions as people’s earnings haven’t gone up with inflation. Glad it’s getting cheaper in absolute terms but much more cost reductions needed for mass market.

[@philmarsh7723]

I'm hoping that the battery costs keep declining and I suspect that the Model Ys (and maybe others) will have option to obtain replacement batteries from Tesla and 3rd parties for much reduced prices as well as enhancements to range and charging speed? So today's purchase of a popular EV such as the Tesla Model Y, might be a wiser purchase than it seems.

[@philmarsh7723]

And if I were Tesla, I would continue to support old EVs with upgraded batteries when they need replacement batteries. This will further cement Tesla's lead.

[@MeAndMyRoyalEnfield]

How much an effect will recycling have on this time-line and cost of new batteries?

[@jomckeag4482]

Many (many!) of the videos of this YT channel are on the same topic. Please do a few videos that focus on the recycling/repurposing of the battery packs after their automobile use. Once the repurposing segment of the battery economy closes the loop what will happen? Please give your thoughts about the after auto use of battery packs

[@serpserpserp]

But ICE lovers keep telling me to replace my battery 10 years from now will cost more than the price I paid for the car! They must be right because that was what was happening 5 years ago!

[@alinthemind]

Just like we’ve seen with the price declines in solar, Chinese battery manufacturers are aiming for a long-term target of $10 per kWh. China already holds over 80% of the global market share for solar panels, and it wouldn’t be surprising if their battery makers capture a similar share in the battery market.

[@incognitotorpedo42]

I don't think $10/kWh is possible, but would love to be proven wrong.

[@PropanePete]

It doesn’t really matter what people or influencers say. In the Australian market just look at the data. BEV sales in Australia (FCAI figures) have stagnated and hybrids are becoming popular. ICE sales remain dominant and have even increased this year contrary to what was expected. People aren’t flocking to buy a BEV, it’s as simple as that. Why they’re not flocking to Tesla or BYD dealers is perhaps something that someone else can explain in the comments. I’m just an observer, not an analyst.

[@zoransarin5411]

Australia is not blessed with choice for EVs thanks to our historically poor emissions standards. Europe and the UK have access to well over 30 different EV makes and models. We have about 4 or 5. However, what will happen next will change things here in Australia. Firstly, China is currently at just over 50% NEV sales (BEVs and PHEVs - not sure of the split). There are about 53 EV automakers in China wanting to dominate and break out and export their cars. The USA has imposed a 100% tariff. Europe is imposing a tariff. So what do you think will happen? China will export wherever else they can, namely South-east Asia and South America. We can expect a literal tsunami of cheap chinese EVs because we dont impose tariffs as we no longer have a car industry to protect. China has mandated that it will be full EV by 2035. They also want to displace Japan as the leadeing car exporter, which they actually achieved already this year. But they are going bigger and they are right on our doorstep. Expect massive influxes of cheaper EVs into Australia between now and 2035.

[@trythis2821]

Have a look on the Australian roads you will see a lot of EVs. Plenty of Tesla and BYD are getting sold, new vehicles and refreshes are coming the numbers will take off again.

[@PropanePete]

@@trythis2821 We spent all last year 2023 on a 35,000 km road trip around Australia in our 4X4 motorhome (Explorer Vision-Ford Ranger chassis). Yes, we saw a sprinkle of EV’s in the cities and larger country towns but once you leave the major highways we only spotted a handful of adventurous EV’s over the whole 12 months away. We live in FNQ and do long road trips but If we lived in for example, Carlton or Brunswick close to the Melbourne CBD and had offstreet parking, I would possibly consider a Fiat 500 E or something in the Yaris size to zip around town, but absolutely positively nothing built in China. I will never buy a Chinese car, ICE or EV.

[@PropanePete]

@@zoransarin5411 You described it correctly Zoran. “A tsunami of cheap Chinese EV’s”. But items that are cheap are generally items of lesser quality, that’s why they’re cheap. It’s a formula. Chinese products are throwaway appliances, no reason to think their EV’s will be any different. In Australia according to the latest FCAI figures (Sept 2024), BEV sales have stagnated, hybrids are the preference for people opting out of ICE, and ICE sales have increased over all other types. So the trend is that Australians aren’t particularly interested in battery powered cars. If down the track BYD sells them here for say, $15000 AUD drive away price and a 600 km range with aircon running continuously (think of FNQ where I live) then that might get peoples attention.

[@zoransarin5411]

@@PropanePete I strongly disagree. I can recall when the Hyundai Excel was first released in Australia. It was considered to be cheap junk. They lasted extremely well and Hyundai has grown to be an extremely reputable car company. With Chinese cars, you fail to understand the extremely cheap labour costs in China. Cheap does not mean lacking in quality. The Chinese have been learning how to make cars from the best for many years by forcing the likes of Ford, VW, GM, Mercedes and Stellantis into joint ventures. They are using the EV transition to dominate the world car market and using the reluctance of the traditional automakers in building EVs. They are clearly hoping to take over the mantle from Japan. I recently spent a week in China and got to see the level of poverty and low prices on goods compared to what we have. Their salaries are a pittance compared to us. They aren't cheap due to low quality.

[@hanswitvliet8188]

So, EV batteries will drop in price. How about those for stationary energy storage ? Those prices remain disgustingly high…

[@hkdamo]

Exactly what I have said. The Mona 03 sells in China for AUD$27k or so. With a 63kwh battery. And home batteries are so expensive. Makes no sense 🤷🏻

[@paulc6766]

Have patience they will come down too.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

EVs are already priced very similar to a bit cheaper than ICE. Stellantis even advertises this fact.

[@keithgilbert835]

I rarely see anyone talk about lithium mining or mining stocks that will benefit from EVs? Just curious if ALB is on anyone’s radar?

[@hanneshonigmeister8454]

I keep hearing that evs are going to be cheaper and i want to believe it. But its just not happening. Even the chinese bring their cars to Europe and make them double the price. A Seal is like what 30.000€ in Australia? And 25.000€ in china? Its 43.000€ in europe. Awful...

[@chesshooligan1282]

If you account for inflation, the decrease in price is even more significant.

[@ericpacia757]

EV ‘s are electronics , so just like any electronics it will get cheaper and cheaper.

[@ericpacia757]

Eventually the money to make in EV is not the hardware but the software.

[@Bluesayshello1]

Hopefully the price drop gets passed on to consumers at some point

[@Charlie-UK]

Goldman Sachs average return on Investment for 2023 was 2.35%. You would get a better return, leaving your money in the Building society, which currently pays, 6.50%. I would take anything Goldman Sachs says with a pinch of salt. They seem great at making money for themselves. But strangely, not for other people...

[@petervautmans199]

with gains in capacity per kg, i suspect that a 75 kwh battery pack would make for a lighter car, with less power (lighter motors and lighter batterypack) and a non suv body (more compact battery), we must get consumption down beneat 15 kwh/100km. Keeping max speed benet 170 km/h and lighter car makes for smaller tyres, Motor-batterypack will be cheaper then engine-gearbox, so the car will be cheaper then ICE with gains in consumption, brakes (regen) and maintenance and a longer lifespan (500 000 kms will be normal, 1 million no exception) reducing cost per km. But we have to go sensible cars, like renault 5 and 4 etc.

[@-TheOracle-]

Why doesn't the auto industry just simply use zinc-based batteries. Insurance companies will love it! I don't understand why Toyota wouldn't use them in their new hybrids coming out soon. Take 45 to 60 miles per gallon and EVEN up and couple that with the safer zinc-based battery and I would buy one!

[@ferfromla]

The Bloomberg news confirms much of what Tony Seba has been saying for a long time. The changes are shifting into high gear due to the rapidly falling battery prices. As the technology improves and gets cheaper ICE vehicles will not be able to compete in price or quality. It remains to be seen how soon prices in the US will decline. Current government policies are aimed at protecting the legacy companies and thus the competition here is not as intense as in other parts of the world. Nevertheless, there comes a point where even tariffs cannot stem the tide.

[@juliahello6673]

I hope this pans out

[@mabehall7667]

The more complete truth about your charging cost for your trip should point out that Tesla cars on Tesla chargers receive significant discounts. One recent article reported the average cost at all chargers was $.48/KWH--a cost higher than the equivalent gas cost per mile in many States. Did Tesla help cover the cost of your trip to the States?

[@НиколаГеоргиев-ш2б]

Same here in Southeast Europe. Cost at public chargers is the equivalent of $0.56/kWh, which makes high distance traveling cheaper in a diesel or even petrol vehicles. Soon we are set to move away from the regulated market for electricity, which will bump home charging prices up significantly. In my region EVs have never been subsidized (except for road tax exemption and free parking in a few cities). It only makes sense as a secondary city car.

[@colinleggett8686]

Excellent video … the petrol/ diesel cars have taken 100 years to get where they are now. EV’S only approx 10 years just imagine how they will be in another ten years . Internal combustion will be a thing of the past , like horse and carts.😁

[@philipbrown9006]

On the contrary, electric cars came before petrol ones. They have had a hundred years to catch up and still haven't managed it!

[@paulc6766]

@@philipbrown9006 We know that but they did not have the battery tech then.

[@hansj5846]

​@@philipbrown9006the reality is that an ICE hasn't changed in 100 years. They haven't even changed the manufacturing method, giga casting only came because of Tesla.

[@davidwright1752]

The car companies will extort you for repairs though . EV and ICE.

[@fryske.tynster]

And the cost of recycling?

[@paulc6766]

To whom?

[@evgriga]

Battery power density can’t go that much till 2030, so 200kW LFP pack alone would weight 1.5T 😅 Here goes the EV efficiency. 😢

[@hackman-hackman]

We need to start recycling the materials in these batteries

[@paulc6766]

They are.

[@hansj5846]

We recycle almost worthless milk cartons for goodness sake, expensive batteries will obviously be a part of a profitable recycling business. You can sleep peacefully

[@robertwhite3503]

Redwood Materials in the USA are ready to do this as soon as people have batteries to sell to them.

[@nononsenseBennett]

Soon, driving an ICE vehicle will be treated with disdain similar to how smokers are viewed today. When you're following an older car without catalytic converters the exhaust is awful. Burning fossil fuels is damaging to the environment.It's good to go electric. Adopt change and move on.

[@paulc6766]

ICE owners should start compensating other members of society for their selfishness.

[@masroor6635]

This is really your surrender not to break away from them, Gandapur and committee is no longer PTI and you it.

[@grantbuttenshaw]

This won't happen...there is only so much batteries can reduce...it's not the manufacturing...it's the cost of materials...which are scarce....not enough mines..

[@michaelmartin9022]

Yeah I'm wondering if they just mean lithium (cheaper recently, but rare) or are factoring in sodium (only recently started being used in batteries, but common)

[@grantbuttenshaw]

@@michaelmartin9022 battery prices have already come down to a base...60% of the cost of a battery is lithium, copper etc...these won't reduce due to high demand and long lead times on mines...prices don't go to zero..

[@SigFigNewton]

So you didn’t listo the video

[@grantbuttenshaw]

@@SigFigNewton why do you think that ya goose? He's wrong. As is the article which he is getting the info from (which I'd already read). Battery prices went up in 2022...the trend has flattened...they aren't getting cheaper.

[@yo2trader539]

Thanks for that. That was my initial question too. Reduction in cost per unit in manufacturing is mostly achieved by mass production..is my understand. So if the input materials are hovering at the same price, I'm not convinced there is room to cut costs.

[@bondnikunj]

about the first statement battery prices arnt the key reason, tesla enjoyed the highest margins for a while and they brought that down, love ur optimism but sometimes u overdo it.

[@jackman2865]

In context how can lithium mining companies produce batteries if it cost. More to produce than to sell?

[@williamkreth]

My next car will be a Tesla and i cannot wait ! (My 2000 toyota is still holding up)

[@MjMurphy777]

Sam, thanks to you, I am hopeful that this transition will happen in a two year time frame. Here in Canada, however, I see little evidence of this happening🫤

[@undercoveraca]

"Stop analysing the future based on yesterday" - Tony Seba calls that 'faster horse syndrome'

[@PierreEss]

Sorry, but this misses one major point entirely: where are the independent EV mechanics, and who will manufacture high-cost non-OEM parts?... Exactly. The PURCHASE PRICE will be coming down, but there is NO COMPETITION for repairs.

[@PierreEss]

And this is coming from an EV fan...

[@dvader3263]

@@PierreEssNot too many EV mechanics are needed. Just like not many smart phone and tablet computer mechanics are needed. The body and suspension of EVs can be worked on by any mechanic. The motors and batteries can also be switched out or replaced by any mechanic. No extensive mechanical work is needed for basic repairs on EVs. No engine and transmission rebuilds required on EVs. No engine accessories are needed for EVs. No exhaust system, catalytic converter, exhaust or pollution controls on EVs. NO separate transfer cases on AWD EVs. Hundreds of less parts on EVs compared to ICE vehicles.

[@JDMSwervo2001]

@@dvader3263what about the cooling, ac and heating systems when they get old and start to leak??? What about the inverters etc?

[@alihms]

​@dvader3263 Yup, I went to do my 10 000 km mandatory service for my EV recently. The workshop (operated by the car dealer) was even more sparse that a backyard mechanic's shed. There was a car lifter, a tyre changing machine, a specialised diagnostic equipment and a set of tool cabinets. That was it. Nothing else. And the floor was unsurprisingly oil free. For my 10K service, they checked my overall car condition, brake-pad thickness and then replaced the cabin air filter. The mechanics there must have some of the easiest mechanics job.

[@vancity2349]

What parts do they need?

[@rodneyblackwell7477]

So it makes no sense to buy a EV now. Wait a few years and get them cheaper

[@BlueMax333]

as battery technology advances and prices come down, it is conceivable that EV will become cheaper than ICE cars

[@SigFigNewton]

Expected

[@KJSvitko]

Model S and model X both need price reductions. The development and manufacturing costs of these vehicles should all be written off by now. These vehicles need to be priced to be eligible for the $7500 tax credit. Getting the color paint and interior you want should not put you over the price limit and make you loose the tax credit. People are holding off buying these vehicles because they do not want to loose the tax credit. Tesla should throw in FREE exterior and interior color choice if you add FSD. The added cost of FSD will more than offset the discount on paint and interior color.

[@mortenjohannesen5429]

Goldman Sachs says, very trustworthy LOL

[@jonmichaelgalindo]

I still have a few friends who swear up and down that they will never, ever own an electric vehicle. It would take a lot to change their minds.

[@philipbrown9006]

Allowing EVs to find their own level in the market without government incentives, and allowing an open discussion on the merits or otherwise of net zero would be a good start. kzbin.info/www/bejne/d2OXl4qjg6Zpoq8

[@snakeplissken526]

I guess there were quite a few people in the 1910's, 1920's who would swear they would never give up their horse and buggy for an automobile.

[@philipbrown9006]

@@snakeplissken526 Quite possibly. But people did without the need for subsidies or mandates or the threat of the planet being destroyed. A study by lindzen, Happer and Winjgaarden entitled “Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase” calculated that even if the entire world were to achieve net zero, this would only reduce global temperature by 0.07°C. Net zero could cost $3.5 trillion per annum. Sounds like a scam to me.

[@johnnyrarere]

It's already happening MGEV 31k

[@jonathanblum2994]

I own a Tesla Y - will it be possible to upgrade the car's batteries when the cost, performance and quality of new batteries is markedly improved?

[@oaktree33]

unlikely

[@imconsequetau5275]

More likely to be an aftermarket for dismantling Teslas for parts rather than new battery designs to fit into older models.

[@andreandre1051]

👍👍

[@CristiCroicu]

50% less for batteries? That can’t be… how are the companies making profit on that?

[@robertwhite3503]

Materials are abundant, technology and manufacturing are improving, there are economies of scale.

[@jluis333]

Pity that charging network is total shit. Come summer or xmas its a fuckin nightmare to hit the road.

[@RedRouge-j4j]

50% battery cost in two years? Make that Musk years and yea!

[@ldowling2714]

Not being funny but when did the bank become the go to in decision on mechanics

[@hansj5846]

Because they like to know where they can invest their money.... They look for industry trends and they don't have opinions on technology.

[@Gonegonegone977]

(They already are)

[@seaplaneguy1]

No, making fuel will be 20 to 30 times less cost than a 100% RE grid. Tony's RE U-curve shows 4x overbuild and 3.5x for battery, or 7.5x more than X, the amount needed. X is now 8 cents/kwh ON grid. X off grid is 1.5 cents/kwh. 7.5 x 8 = 60 cents/kwh. Super charge will be 90. Fuel is 1.5 x 2 = 3 cents/kwh. bottom line is a 20 to 30:1 ratio. Add in Battery at 10 cents/mile ($15,000 bat/150,000 miles = 10 c/mile). At 133 that makes $13.3 /gal or 39.47 cents/kwh for battery alone. Total then is ~100 to 130 cents/kwh... New combustion tech will be 75% efficient with full brake recovery better than an EV. 150 MPG hwy, 240 city, 200 average, vs 127 hwy, 141 city and 134 average (Tesla M3). That make combustion 1.5x better MPGe than an EV. Now multiply by 1.5 x the 20 :1 fuel cost and you get 30:1 in costs MORE for EVs. No EV can survive this.

[@youtubetroll6620]

IF BATTERY PRICE DROPS 50% YOU CAN BET YOUR SWEET ASS, THAT LABOR RATE WILL INCREASE 50%...😐

[@robertmartens7839]

If the ICE cars start losing money the market will stop making them (less than 5 years, not 10 or 20) Who will buy stock of a company that sells less units every year?

[@RunQC]

Strangely Tesla stock is going nowhere because of low margins

[@1voluntaryist]

I wonder: How long will it take for the majority of Americans to switch? What month, year? My bet? 2027-28, about 3 years from now.

[@JCSY1]

Yes. It is already happening and will get much cheaper soon. Maybe not so much in the US or EU but it will be much cheaper in China and most of the rest of the world. 😂 Now EVs just need to keep improving on the safety, faster and more charging stations and can go for more distance per charge. Soon, everyone will go for EVs instead of ICE.

[@ashb8572]

Model 3 is a far inferior car versus a Camry. The only this inferior in a Camry is the software!

[@martinhovorka69]

The cheap batteries with cheap solar panels will change everything. Every house will be covered by solar panels and have private or community battery storage that will be able to charge in the summer for the while winter. No gas or petrol needed to heat/cool homes and operate home appliances and EV. The energy monopolies will go bust as energy will be almost for free, abundance of energy always drives prosperity and a technological revolution.

[@bobwallace9753]

Generation at the consumer level has economic advantages. You're generating at wholesale rates, avoiding retail rates.

[@SigFigNewton]

But most people won’t live in houses. EV adoption is limited by the number of people who can charge at home

[@dvader3263]

@@SigFigNewtonTwo thirds of the people in the USA live in single family dwellings. Maybe not so many in the rest of the world. The entire world has plenty of room for solar panels for the electric needs of everyone.

[@paulc6766]

@@SigFigNewton In Australia 93% of people live in a house not an apartment.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@paulc6766 congratulations on that housing crisis. Surely unrelated

[@mydogsbutler]

Price is just part of what needs to happen before EVs can replace ICE in America. Range anxiety and charge time issue also needs to be resolved. Most Americans like having cars that can occasional go far. Camping. road trips, and so on. If a car only has 300 mile range and you have to wait an hour to "fill up" most of the population won't buy them even if cheap. Chinese battery companies latest offerings seem to have solve all three problem.s Unfortunately Americans can't buy them because of the current dumb trade war that hurts both Chinese and American consumers and companies. . Autarky economics and mercantilism are not economically efficient but unfortunately many throw reason out the window when it comes to national egos.

[@jarmovainikka2695]

Iam happy to spend more money for petrol car

[@paulc6766]

It will get very expensive.

[@mydogsbutler]

Far as I know even Tesla currently has nothing that can compete with CATL's current best on performance and price. So what specific factory in America does Goldman Sachs claim is going to churn out competitive batteries at price points you currently find only in China? Widescale EV adoption s inevitable but given current trade war two years seems a bit optimistic schedule for EV batteries to drop by 50 percent in at least America.

[@kenoliver8913]

But America is less than a fifth of the world car market.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@kenoliver8913 Is Goldman arguing global average battery prices or American prices?

[@paulc6766]

Tesla uses CATL batteries and in fact has contracts with ALL the worlds battery makers.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@paulc6766 As a far as I understand it that's in Tesla in China not in Tesla US. In China there are no restrictions for US car makers to use China batteries. Ford recently agreed to do a deal with CATL for a MIchgan plant and some American lawmakers criticized it and argued to investigate or even ban CATL. I think GM is currently trying to circumnavigate the political issue by getting a Japanese company to build a factory in the US that licences CATL tech. It's hard for American car makers to do business with Chinese EV battery makers for cars sold in America under such hostile conditions. Some politicians, in particular on GOP side, are so clueless about EV tech they have no idea they are harming their own auto industry's global competitiveness by keeping them from buying Chinese batteries. If they keep it up, with five years FM, Ford, and Chrysler won't be able to export a car anywhere in the world Chinese EV's are sold. America consumers are also paying a heavy price. CATL's latest batteries solve longstanding range anxiety and charge time issues but Americans are being limited to buying inferior technology by their own government. This also delays America's shift off ICE.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@paulc6766 As far as I know that's for American brands sold in China not US market. Ford got into trouble recently trying to set up a plant with CATL in Michigan. Some GOP lawmakers want to ban CATL from the US entirely. GM is trying to work around the politics by cutting a deal with a Japanese company that license CATL technology.